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Results for “Climate Change Ecology”

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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is the focus of most papers in this Special Section, we posit that many of the issues that characterize the remote, relatively undisturbed ecosystems of high northern latitudes are widespread and thus applicable to natural-resource management and conservation across northern portions of the Holarctic ecozone and indeed anywhere broad-scale monitoring is contemplated.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2018

Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with the number of associated springs. Resilience was greater for SMZs on topographically shaded, north‐facing slopes. Several high‐resilience SMZs were located immediately below persistent snowbanks, suggesting a possible source of steady recharge throughout the growing season. The approach presented here—if combined with field assessments of spring hydrogeology, discharge, and groundwater age—could help identify spring‐fed wetlands that are most likely to serve as hydrologic refugia from climate change.

Oregon↗
USGS2023

Climate change as a global amplifier of human–wildlife conflict

Climate change and human–wildlife conflict are both pressing challenges for biodiversity conservation and human well-being in the Anthropocene. Climate change is a critical yet underappreciated amplifier of human–wildlife conflict, as it exacerbates resource scarcity, alters human and animal behaviours and distributions, and increases human–wildlife encounters. We synthesize evidence of climate-driven conflicts occurring among ten taxonomic orders, on six continents and in all five oceans. Such conflicts disrupt both subsistence livelihoods and industrial economies and may accelerate the rate at which human–wildlife conflict drives wildlife declines. We introduce a framework describing distinct environmental, ecological and sociopolitical pathways through which climate variability and change percolate via complex social–ecological systems to influence patterns and outcomes of human–wildlife interactions. Identifying these pathways allows for developing mitigation strategies and proactive policies to limit the impacts of human–wildlife conflict on biodiversity conservation and human well-being in a changing climate.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2020

Climate dipoles as continental drivers of plant and animal populations

Ecological processes, such as migration and phenology, are strongly influenced by climate variability. Studying these processes often relies on associating observations of animals and plants with climate variability indices, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A characteristic of climate indices is the simultaneous emergence of opposite extremes of temperature and precipitation across continental scales, known as climate dipoles. The role of climate dipoles in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes has been largely overlooked. We review emerging evidence that climate dipoles can entrain species dynamics, and offer a framework for identifying ecological dipoles using broad-scale biological data. Given future changes in climatic and atmospheric processes, climate and ecological dipoles will likely shift in their intensity, distribution, and timing.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2016

Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients

Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6 °C). We expect that in the past 121 years, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze-sensitive organisms. In broad terms, our findings can be used to better understand and anticipate the ecological effects of changing winter climate extremes, especially within the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates.

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Water-resource management monitoring needs, State of Hawai‘i

In cooperation with the State of Hawai‘i Commission on Water Resource Management and in collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi Water Resources Research Center, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a water-resource monitoring program—a rainfall, surface-water, and groundwater data-collection program—that is required to meet State needs for water-resource assessment, management, and protection in Hawai‘i. Current and foreseeable issues related to water-resource management and climate-change effects guided the evaluation of data-collection sites within the monitoring program. Data-collection sites currently (2018) being operated in Hawai‘i were evaluated, and additional data-collection sites were selected on the basis of their usefulness for characterizing anthropogenic effects on water resources or representing natural conditions. Data-collection strategies consist of a combination of continuous long-term monitoring to evaluate trends and climate-change effects and occasional and periodic intensive monitoring to enhance spatial understanding of hydrologic conditions and to address current issues in priority areas—areas that currently have water-availability issues or are expected to have the greatest socioeconomic or ecological effects because of climate change. Priority areas for rainfall monitoring consist of urban and agricultural lands, areas with high rainfall and high-rainfall gradient, and areas within the trade-wind inversion band. Surface-water priority areas consist of streams with major surface-water diversions, with established interim instream-flow standards, in a surface-water management area, that support water leases, and with uncertainties in hydrogeologic characteristics. Priority areas for groundwater monitoring consist of areas with high withdrawal, declining water levels, reduced recharge, limited alternative sources, and uncertainties in hydrogeologic characteristics. Data-quality objectives for the rainfall, surface-water, and groundwater monitoring programs that describe anticipated uses of the data were established with the goal of producing useful, reliable, and accurate water-resource information of sufficient precision to support decision making. The data-quality objectives also consider quality-assurance and quality-control programs that ensure defensible data. Establishment of common data-quality objectives not only assures comparability of data collected by multiple agencies but also allows data from academic, private, and public organizations to be useful for meeting State monitoring needs, provided the data meet appropriate data-quality objectives and data-accessibility requirements.

Hawaii↗
USGS2024

Droughts reshape apex predator space use and intraguild overlap

1. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity globally due to climate change, leading to changes in resource availability that may have cascading effects on animal ecology. Resource availability is a key driver of animal space use, which in turn influences interspecific interactions like intraguild competition. Understanding how climate-induced changes in resource availability influence animal space use, and how species-specific responses scale up to affect intraguild dynamics, is necessary for predicting broader community-level responses to climatic changes. 2. Although several studies have demonstrated the ecological impacts of drought, the behavioral responses of individuals that scale up to these broader-scale effects are not well known, particularly among animals in top trophic levels, such as large carnivores. Furthermore, we currently lack understanding of how the impacts of climate variability on individual carnivore behavior are linked to intraguild dynamics, in part because multi-species datasets collected at timescales relevant to climatic changes are rare. 3. Using 11 years of GPS data from four sympatric large carnivore species in southern Africa – lions ( Panthera leo ), leopards ( Panthera pardus ), African wild dogs ( Lycaon pictus) , and cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ) – spanning 4 severe drought events, we test whether drought conditions impact 1) large carnivore space use, 2) broad-scale intraguild spatial overlap, and 3) fine-scale intraguild interactions. 4. Drought conditions expanded space use across species, with carnivores increasing their monthly home range sizes by 35% (wild dogs) to 66% (leopards). Drought conditions increased the amount of spatial overlap between lions and subordinate felids (cheetahs and leopards) by up to 119%, but only lion-cheetah encounter rates were affected by these changes, declining in response to drought. 5. Our findings reveal that drought has a clear signature on the space use of multiple sympatric large carnivore species, which can alter spatiotemporal partitioning between competing species. Our study thereby illuminates the links between environmental change, animal behavior, and intraguild dynamics. While fine-scale avoidance strategies may facilitate intraguild coexistence during periodic droughts, large carnivore conservation may require considerable expansion of protected areas or revised human-carnivore coexistence strategies to accommodate the likely long-term increased space demands of large carnivores under projected increases in drought intensity.

Okavango Delta↗
USGS2015

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

Climate change is having widespread ecological effects, including loss of Arctic sea ice. This has led to listing of the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) and other ice-dependent marine mammals under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Methods are needed to evaluate the effects of climate change on population persistence to inform recovery planning for listed species. For polar bears, this includes understanding interactions between climate and secondary factors, such as subsistence harvest, which provide economic, nutritional, or cultural value to humans. We developed a matrix-based demographic model for polar bears that can be used for population viability analysis and to evaluate the effects of human-caused removals. This model includes density-dependence (the potential for a declining environmental carrying capacity), density-independent limitation, and sex- and age-specific harvest vulnerabilities. We estimated values of adult female survival (0.93–0.96), recruitment (number of yearling cubs per adult female; 0.1–0.3), and carrying capacity (>250 animals) that must be maintained for a hypothetical population to achieve a 90-percent probability of persistence over 100 years. We also developed a state-dependent management framework, based on harvest theory and the potential biological removal method, by linking the demographic model to simulated population assessments. This framework can be used to estimate the maximum sustainable rate of human-caused removals, including subsistence harvest, which maintains a population at its maximum net productivity level. The framework also can be used to calculate a recommended sustainable harvest rate, which generally is lower than the maximum sustainable rate and depends on management objectives, the precision and frequency of population data, and risk tolerance. The historical standard 4.5-percent harvest rate for polar bears, at a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, is reasonable under many biological and management conditions, although lower or higher rates may be appropriate in some cases. Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2015

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms. We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap. We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr −1 when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr −1 when estimated using traditional methods. Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2005

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Ecological Complexity↗
USGS2024

Resilience is not enough: Toward a more meaningful rangeland adaptation science

Rangeland ecosystems, and their managers, face the growing urgency of climate change impacts. Researchers are therefore seeking integrative social-ecological frameworks that can enhance adaptation by managers to these climate change dynamics through tighter linkages among multiple scientific disciplines and manager contexts. Social-ecological framings, including resilience and vulnerability, are popular in such efforts, but their potential to inform meaningful rangeland adaptation science is limited by traditional disciplinary silos. Here, we provide reflective lessons learned from a multidisciplinary Rangelands, Ranching, and Resilience (R3) project on U.S. western rangelands that addressed 1) biophysical science projections of forage production under future climate scenarios, 2) ranchers’ views of resilience using social science methods, and 3) outreach efforts coordinated through extension professionals. Despite the project's initial intentions, human dimensions and ecological researchers largely worked in parallel sub-teams during the project, rather than weaving their expertise together with managers. The R3 project was multidisciplinary, but it provides a case study on lessons learned to suggest how social and ecological researchers can move towards approaches that transcend individual disciplines. Transdisciplinary science and management in rangelands requires more than just conceptual social-ecological frameworks. Additional methodological concepts need to include: 1) relationship building; 2) shared meaning making; and 3) a commitment to continual conversations and learning, or staying with the trouble, following Haraway (2016). If the goal is to address meaningful rangeland adaptation science rather than just produce academic products, researchers, outreach professionals, and rangeland-based communities should address a series of critical troubling questions. In the process of addressing these, deeper engagement among and beyond disciplines will occur as relationship building, shared meaning, and continual conversations and learning facilitate staying with the trouble.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗
USGS2026

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how species may persist under future scenarios and can strengthen conservation planning by highlighting opportunities for resilience and targeted management strategies. Trait-based approaches offer a promising path for managers to operationalize adaptive capacity by identifying measurable biological and ecological traits that influence climate change response strategies. However, these insights are rarely integrated into broader vulnerability frameworks that support conservation decision making. We build on previous research to synthesize current understanding of adaptive capacity for three freshwater taxa in North America: fishes, mussels, and crayfishes. Our objectives were to: (1) assess the relevance of adaptive capacity factors for fishes, mussels, and crayfishes; (2) identify key opportunities and gaps in linking trait-based information into adaptive capacity assessments; and (3) illustrate how incorporating adaptive capacity can enhance management decisions for freshwater species under climate change. We used an expert workshop, literature review, and case studies to identify relevant adaptive capacity factors, assess available information, and evaluate inclusion in management contexts. We found that all three taxa had sufficient information to inform adaptive capacity assessments. In addition to existing adaptive capacity factors, we identified Morphology as an important yet underutilized cross-cutting diagnostic category when information was limited. By explicitly linking trait-based approaches with adaptive capacity frameworks, we offer practical guidance for improving climate adaptation strategies and prioritizing management actions for freshwater biodiversity under accelerating global change.

Global Change Biology Communications↗
USGS2020

Ecosystem-specific growth responses to climate pattern by a temperate freshwater fish

Somatic growth patterns among animal populations are maintained through complex processes that vary among ecosystems. Changes in growth patterns may be concomitant with changes in climate; however, understanding how growth will manifest among ecosystems is limited. Information embedded within fish hard-parts (i.e., otoliths, spines, vertebrae) can account for variation in growth patterns resulting from changing climate conditions. Channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus is a freshwater fish species widely distributed across North America with limited information regarding climate influences on growth and differences in climate-growth relations among ecological systems. We assessed growth (total length) response to changing climate conditions for channel catfish among three waterbody types—pit lakes, irrigation and power-generation reservoirs, and flood-control reservoirs in Nebraska, USA. We used linear mixed-effect models and an information theoretic approach to assess the relative strengths among competing hypotheses. The most supported linear mixed-effect model of channel catfish growth was a function of fish age and an interaction between waterbody type and growing-degree-day (GDD). A positive trend existed in GDD from 1990 through 2008 whereby the predicted increase in GDD among waterbody types ranged from 182 GDD to 189 GDD. The predicted change in channel catfish growth resulting from increased GDD ranged from 1% to 39% among waterbody types. Channel catfish population rate functions, thus, may not respond similarly to climate conditions across ecosystem types. Changes in climate variables may contribute to system-specific responses in population dynamics for channel catfish as well as other similar freshwater species. The establishment of relations between climate and growth variables for a freshwater generalist with a plastic diet and broad temperature tolerance serves as an indication of the breadth of responses possible for freshwater fishes under global changes in climate conditions.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

Differential responses of coolwater fishes to a whole-lake reduction of a warmwater thermal guild

Climate change is transforming the ecology of lakes at a rapid pace, shifting some lakes toward warmwater-dominant habitats. As a result, warmwater fishes are increasingly becoming more prevalent in lakes where they already existed, altering the patterning and strength of species interactions. Understanding shifting species interactions (e.g., competition, predation), and the role of lake management in shaping these interactions, will be critical for lake stewardship in response to climate change. Here, we present results from an intensive 5-year experimental removal of ~285,000 warmwater fishes from a north-temperate lake. The goal of the experiment was to test whether warmwater fish reduction is effective for rewiring lake food webs to reverse undesirable conditions for coolwater species, leading to increased recruitment and abundance of coolwater fishes. Throughout the experiment, warmwater fishes were resilient to reductions, with biomass declines of 23% averaged across five species. Among coolwater fishes, the top predator walleye showed no biomass response, while yellow perch biomass increased by ~914%. Fish species biomass changes translated to food web shifts, including a yellow perch trophic position decline of 0.4, decreased zooplankton abundances, and increased zoobenthos abundances. Our results highlight differential species responses to a management action aimed at adapting to climate change. Despite similar thermal tolerances, two coolwater species responded differently to removal of warmwater fishes, highlighting the characteristics (e.g., life history strategies, adaptive capacity) that contribute to species resilience. Given the importance of biotic interactions, climate adaptation may need to go beyond a “one-size-fits-all” approach even when species have similar thermal tolerances.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i

Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (T min , T mean , T max ) and mean precipitation (P mean ) data at 250 m resolution. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two climate projections into a suite of 19 standard bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections) climate scenarios. The resulting dataset provides a more robust set of climate products that can be used for modeling purposes, impact studies, and management planning.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in subsistence berries in coastal Alaska: Indigenous knowledge to inform ecological inference

Berry-producing plants are a key subsistence resource in Indigenous Alaskan communities. High-latitude coastal regions are particularly impacted by global climate change due to their location at the land-sea ecotone subjecting them to terrestrial stressors as well as shifts in ocean dynamics. While vegetation changes have been documented for the subarctic coastal region of Alaska, we know little about permafrost underlain portions of the landscape that support berry communities. To fill this gap surveys were administered in four communities within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, to identify observations of changes in berry resources and integrate Indigenous Knowledge of drivers of changes with climate projections. We found that while most participants agreed on several observed changes and drivers, many important differences were identified at the community level. Regional consensus can be used in combination with climate projections to forecast potential future impacts to berry resources while distinctions at the community level can help us to untangle local scale disturbances.

Alaska↗