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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

USGS2004

Modeling the suppression of sea lamprey populations by the release of sterile males or sterile females

The suppressive effects of trapping adult sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus Linnaeus, and releasing sterile males (SMRT) or females (SFRT) into a closed system were expressed in deterministic models. Suppression was modeled as a function of the proportion of the population removed by trapping, the number of sterile animals released, the reproductive rate and sex ratio of the population, and (for the SFRT) the rate of polygyny. Releasing sterile males reduced populations more quickly than did the release of sterile females. For a population in which 30% are trapped, sterile animals are initially released at ratio of 10 sterile to 1 fertile animal, 5 adult progeny are produced per fertile mating, 60% are male, and males mate with an average of 1.65 females, the initial population is reduced 87% by SMRT and 68% by SFRT in one generation. The extent of suppression achieved is most sensitive to changes in the initial sterile release ratio. Given the current status of sea lamprey populations and trapping operations in the Great Lakes, the sterile-male-release technique has the best chance for success on a lake-wide basis if implemented in Lake Michigan. The effectiveness of the sterile-female-release technique should be investigated in a controlled study. Advancing trapping technology should be a high priority in the near term, and artificial rearing of sea lampreys to the adult stage should be a high priority in the long term. The diligent pursuit of sea lamprey suppression over a period of several decades can be expected to yield great benefits.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2004

Discrimination among spawning aggregations of lake herring from Lake Superior using whole-body morphometric characters

The lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ) was one of the most commercially and ecologically valuable Lake Superior fishes, but declined in the second half of the 20th century as the result of overharvest of putatively discrete stocks. No tools were previously available that described lake herring stock structure and accurately classified lake herring to their spawning stocks. The accuracy of discriminating among spawning aggregations was evaluated using whole-body morphometrics based on a truss network. Lake herring were collected from 11 spawning aggregations in Lake Superior and two inland Wisconsin lakes to evaluate morphometrics as a stock discrimination tool. Discriminant function analysis correctly classified 53% of all fish from all spawning aggregations, and fish from all but one aggregation were classified at greater rates than were possible by chance. Discriminant analysis also correctly classified 66% of fish to nearest neighbor groups, which were groups that accounted for the possibility of mixing among the aggregations. Stepwise discriminant analysis showed that posterior body length and depth measurements were among the best discriminators of spawning aggregations. These findings support other evidence that discrete stocks of lake herring exist in Lake Superior, and fishery managers should consider all but one of the spawning aggregations as discrete stocks. Abundance, annual harvest, total annual mortality rate, and exploitation data should be collected from each stock, and surplus production of each stock should be estimated. Prudent management of stock surplus production and exploitation rates will aid in restoration of stocks and will prevent a repeat of the stock collapses that occurred in the middle of the 20th century, when the species was nearly extirpated from the lake.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2011

Fire and the origins of Mediterranean-type vegetation

The mediterranean-type climate (MTC) is widely agreed to have been in place in all five MTC regions since at least the late Pliocene (see Fig. 9.1), ~2 Ma, with much of the contemporary mediterranean-type vegetation (MTV) present and contributing to a highly fire-prone environment. There is far less agreement on: (1) the timing of the origin of the MTC, (2) the timing of and factors responsible for the origins of MTV, and (3) the paleohistory of fire and extent to which it has played a role in the origins of MTV. Ample evidence exists to suggest a much earlier origin of MTC and MTV. A widely held paradigm is that many of the woody sclerophylls that comprise MTV are much older than the Pliocene and thus have not adapted to contemporary fire-prone MTC conditions (Axelrod 1989; Herrera 1992; Verdú et al . 2003; Ackerly 2004a). Most of these have origins in the Tertiary Period of the early Cenozoic and are viewed as relictual taxa that represent evolutionary inertia and are present today merely by chance avoidance of random extinctions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2002

Semiquantitative spectrographic method for analysis of minerals, rocks, and ores

The quantity and complex nature of materials received for analysis in the spectrographic laboratories of the U. S. Geological Survey have emphasized the need for a spectrographic method to determine a maximum number of elements in a limited time with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The semiquantitative method described determines 68 elements in one arcing of a 10-mg. sample. The method has been used to complete 245,000 determinations during a 3-year period. Each determination is reported as a concentration range or bracket (0.001 to 0.01, 0.01 to 0.1%, etc.). A chemical check of 500 such determinations showed 92% in agreement; the remaining 8% agreed to within one bracket. The method requires a minimum of sample handling, thus reducing the chances of contamination, detects low concentrations of elements, and is rapid. Analyses have been completed on a wide variety of materials.

Analytical Chemistry↗

USGS2017

Trends in methyl tert-butyl ether concentrations in private wells in southeast New Hampshire: 2005 to 2015

In southeast New Hampshire, where reformulated gasoline was used from the 1990s to 2007, methyl tert- butyl ether (MtBE) concentrations ≥0.2 μg/L were found in water from 26.7% of 195 domestic wells sampled in 2005. Ten years later in 2015, and eight years after MtBE was banned, 10.3% continue to have MtBE. Most wells (140 of 195) had no MtBE detections (concentrations <0.2 μg/L) in 2005 and 2015. Of the remaining wells, MtBE concentrations increased in 4 wells, decreased in 47 wells, and did not change in 4 wells. On average, MtBE concentrations decreased 65% among 47 wells whereas MtBE concentrations increased 17% among 4 wells between 2005 and 2015. The percent change in detection frequency from 2005 to 2015 (the decontamination rate) was lowest (45.5%) in high-population-density areas and in wells completed in the Berwick Formation geologic units. The decontamination rate was the highest (78.6%) where population densities were low and wells were completed in bedrock composed of granite, metamorphic, and mafic rocks. Wells in the Berwick Formation are characteristically deeper and have lower yields than wells in other rock types and have shallower overburden cover, which may allow for more rapid transport of MtBE from land-surface releases. Low-yielding, deep bedrock wells may require large contributing areas to achieve adequate well yield, and thus have a greater chance of intercepting MtBE, in addition to diluting contaminants at a slower rate and thus requiring more time to decontaminate.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2004

Methyl tert-butyl ether occurrence and related factors in public and private wells in southeast New Hampshire

The occurrence of methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) in water from public wells in New Hampshire has increased steadily over the past several years. Using a laboratory reporting level of 0.2 μg/L, 40% of samples from public wells and 21% from private wells in southeast New Hampshire have measurable concentrations of MTBE. The rate of occurrence of MTBE varied significantly for public wells by establishment type; for example, 63% of public wells serving residential properties have MTBE concentrations above 0.2 μg/L, whereas lower rates were found for schools (21%). MTBE concentrations correlate strongly with urban factors, such as population density. Surprisingly, MTBE was correlated positively with well depth for public supply wells. Well depth is inversely related to yield in New Hampshire bedrock wells, which may mean that there is less opportunity for dilution of MTBE captured by deep wells. Another possibility is that the source(s) of water to low-yield wells may be dominated by leakage from potentially contaminated shallow groundwater through near-surface fractures or along the well casing. These wells may also have relatively large contributing areas (due to low recharge at the bedrock surface) and therefore have a greater chance of intersecting MTBE sources. This finding is significant because deep bedrock wells are often considered to be less vulnerable to contamination than shallow wells, and in southeast New Hampshire, wells are being drilled deeper in search of increased supply.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2001

Lithodiversity and its spatial association with metallic mineral sites, Great Basin of Nevada

Geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used to investigate the spatial association between metallic mineral sites and lithodiversity in Nevada. Mineral site data sets include various size and type subsets of about 5,500 metal-bearing occurrences and deposits. Lithodiversity was calculated by counting the number of unique geological map units within four sizes of square-shaped sample neighborhoods (2.5-by-2.5, 5-by-5, 10-by-10, and 20-by-20 km) on three different scales of geological maps (national, 1:2,500,000; state, 1:500,000; county, 1:250,000). The spatial association between mineral sites and lithodiversity was observed to increase with increasing lithodiversity. This relationship is consistent for (1) both basin-range and range-only regions, (2) four sizes of sample neighborhoods, (3) various mineral site subsets, (4) the three scales of geological maps, and (5) areas not covered by large-scale maps. A map scale of 1:500,000 and lithodiversity sampling neighborhood of 5-by-5 km was determined to best describe the association. Positive associations occurred for areas having >3 geological map units per neighborhood, with the strongest observed at approximately >7 units. Areas in Nevada with more than three geological map units per 5-by-5 km neighborhood contain more mineral sites than would be expected resulting from chance. High lithodiversity likely reflects the occurrence of complex structural, stratigraphic, and intrusive relationships that are thought to control, focus, localize, or expose mineralization. The application of lithodiversity measurements to areas that are not well explored may help delineate regional-scale exploration targets and provide GIS-supported mineral resource assessment and exploration activity another method that makes use of widely available geological map data.

Nevada↗

USGS2003

Use of a probabilistic neural network to reduce costs of selecting construction rock

Rocks used as construction aggregate in temperate climates deteriorate to differing degrees because of repeated freezing and thawing. The magnitude of the deterioration depends on the rock's properties. Aggregate, including crushed carbonate rock, is required to have minimum geotechnical qualities before it can be used in asphalt and concrete. In order to reduce chances of premature and expensive repairs, extensive freeze-thaw tests are conducted on potential construction rocks. These tests typically involve 300 freeze-thaw cycles and can take four to five months to complete. Less time consuming tests that (1) predict durability as well as the extended freeze-thaw test or that (2) reduce the number of rocks subject to the extended test, could save considerable amounts of money. Here we use a probabilistic neural network to try and predict durability as determined by the freeze-thaw test using four rock properties measured on 843 limestone samples from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Modified freeze-thaw tests and less time consuming specific gravity (dry), specific gravity (saturated), and modified absorption tests were conducted on each sample. Durability factors of 95 or more as determined from the extensive freeze-thaw tests are viewed as acceptable—rocks with values below 95 are rejected. If only the modified freeze-thaw test is used to predict which rocks are acceptable, about 45% are misclassified. When 421 randomly selected samples and all four standardized and scaled variables were used to train aprobabilistic neural network, the rate of misclassification of 422 independent validation samples dropped to 28%. The network was trained so that each class (group) and each variable had its own coefficient (sigma). In an attempt to reduce errors further, an additional class was added to the training data to predict durability values greater than 84 and less than 98, resulting in only 11% of the samples misclassified. About 43% of the test data was classed by the neural net into the middle group—these rocks should be subject to full freeze-thaw tests. Thus, use of the probabilistic neural network would meanthat the extended test would only need be applied to 43% of the samples, and 11% of the rocks classed as acceptable would fail early.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2000

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2003

Orogenic tectonism on Io

We catalog 143 Ionian mountains (montes) and mountain‐like features (mensae, tholi, plana, and small peaks) in order to investigate orogenic tectonism on Io. From this comprehensive list, we select 96 mountains for which there are sufficient coverage and resolution to discern spatial relationships with surrounding geologic features. Three of the 96 mountains are probably volcanoes, 92 appear to be tectonic massifs, and 1 is ambiguous. Of the 92 tectonic mountains, 38 abut paterae (volcanic or volcano‐tectonic craters with irregular or scalloped margins). This juxtaposition is unlikely to be a coincidence as the probability of it occurring by chance is ∼0.1%. We propose instead that orogenic faults may act as conduits for magma ascent, thus fueling patera formation near mountains. As resurfacing buries a shell of material from Io's surface to the base of the lithosphere, its effective radius is reduced and it heats up. We calculate the lithospheric volume change due to subsidence and thermal expansion as a function of lithospheric thickness. Conservation of volume dictates that this material must be uplifted at Io's surface. By estimating the total volume of the mountains, we are able to place a lower limit of 12 km on Io's lithospheric thickness. We hypothesize that, in some cases, mountain formation may be facilitated by asthenospheric diapirs impinging on the base of the lithosphere. The resulting lithospheric swell could focus the compressive stresses that drive orogenic tectonism. This model is one of several possible mechanisms for uplifting isolated mountains such as are observed on Io.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2004

Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1-20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mount Vesuvius↗

USGS2010

Tidal calibration of Plate Boundary Observatory borehole strainmeters: Roles of vertical and shear coupling

A multicomponent borehole strainmeter directly measures changes in the diameter of its cylindrical housing at several azimuths. To transform these measurements to formation strains requires a calibration matrix, which must be estimated by analyzing the installed strainmeter's response to known strains. Typically, theoretical calculations of Earth tidal strains serve as the known strains. This paper carries out such an analysis for 12 Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters, postulating that each of the strainmeters' four gauges responds ("couples") to all three horizontal components of the formation strain tensor, as well as to vertical strain. Orientation corrections are also estimated. The fourth extensometer in each PBO strainmeter provides redundant information used to reduce the chance that coupling coefficients could be misleadingly fit to inappropriate theoretical tides. Satisfactory fits between observed and theoretically calculated tides were obtained for three PBO strainmeters in California, where the calculated tides are corroborated by other instrumentation, as well as for six strainmeters in Oregon and Washington, where no other instruments have ever recorded Earth tidal strain. Several strainmeters have unexpectedly large coupling coefficients for vertical strain, which increases the strainmeter's response to atmospheric pressure. Vertical coupling diminishes, or even changes the sign of, the apparent response to areal strain caused by Earth tides or deep Earth processes because near the free surface, vertical strains are opposite in sign to areal strain. Vertical coupling does not impair the shear strain response, however. PBO borehole strainmeters can provide calibrated shear strain time series of transient strain associated with tectonic or magmatic processes.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2010

Coulomb stress interactions among M≥5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda deformation zone and on the Mendocino Fracture Zone, Cascadia megathrust, and northern San Andreas fault

The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km 2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by <9 months are unlikely to occur by random chance, suggesting that the multiple short-term stress interactions observed among the recent Gorda zone earthquakes are not an apparent effect. In all well-constrained ≥0.2 bar Coulomb stress interactions between earthquakes that occurred within 4 years of each other, the second earthquake is promoted. On longer timescales, calculated stress changes imparted by the 1980 M w = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.

California↗

USGS2020

The ocean's impact on slow slip events

We test the hypothesis that ocean seafloor pressures impart stresses that alter the initiation or termination of transient slow slip events (SSEs) on shallow submarine and near-coastal faults, using simulated seafloor pressures and a new catalog of SSEs in the Hikurangi subduction zone. We show that seafloor pressures may be represented by an average time history over the ~100-km dimensions of the study area. We account for SSE uncertainties and the multiplicity of processes that affect SSEs statistically by estimating the probabilities of rejecting the null hypothesis that SSE initiation or termination pressures are those to be expected by chance sampling of known (modeled) seafloor pressures, with low probabilities indicating some causal connection. No impact of ocean pressure changes on SSE initiation is detectable, but a correlation with their terminations is suggested. SSE slip that weakens the fault and makes it more sensitive to small stress changes may explain results.

Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2025

False positives in the identification of dynamic earthquake triggering

Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with global M ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial-temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 , thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 ), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance.

JGR Solid Earth↗

USGS1997

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1998

Spatial variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes measured by the b -value is determined as a function of space beneath Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from data recorded between August 1, 1995 and March 31, 1996. A volume of anomalously high b -values ( b > 3.0) with a 1.5 km radius is imaged at depths of 0 and 1.5 km beneath English's Crater and Chance's Peak. This high b -value anomaly extends southwest to Gage's Soufriere. At depths greater than 2.5 km volumes of comparatively low b -values ( b ∼1) are found beneath St. George's Hill, Windy Hill, and below 2.5 km depth and to the south of English's Crater. We speculate the depth of high b -value anomalies under volcanoes may be a function of silica content, modified by some additional factors, with the most siliceous having these volumes that are highly fractured or contain high pore pressure at the shallowest depths.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1998

Strain accumulation rates in the San Francisco Bay area, 1972–1989

Maps of the strain accumulation rate in the San Francisco Bay area have been constructed from trilateration observations extending from about 1972 until the Loma Prieta earthquake in late 1989. The observations were corrected to remove offsets imposed by shallow fault creep and by four M ∼6 earthquakes that occurred in the Bay area during that time interval. The Bay area was divided into 32 contiguous polygons, and the uniform (in both space and time) strain rates that best explain the changes in the corrected (earthquake and shallow fault creep offsets removed) distances within each polygon were calculated. In a coordinate system with the 1 axis directed N58°E and the 2 axis N32°W (perpendicular and parallel to the local tangent to the small circle drawn about the Pacific-Sierra Nevada pole of rotation) the averages of these 32 strain rates (each weighted by the area of the polygon) are ε11=9.2±7.4, ε12=−160.7±4.6, and ε22=8.2±6.2 nanostrain/yr, where extension is reckoned positive and quoted uncertainties are standard deviations. As expected from the Pacific-Sierra Nevada relative plate motion, the overall strain rate is predominantly right-lateral shear across a vertical plane striking N32°W. The net increase in the 12,225 km2 area of the trilateration network is only 212±110 m2/yr, which arises from almost equal extensions in the N32°W and N58°E directions. Within the network the strain rates vary from polygon to polygon. Significant areal dilatation rates are observed in almost ⅓ of the individual polygons and the N32°W extension rates tend to be negative to the west of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault trend and positive east of it. The N58E extension rate is positive in 22 out of 32 polygons, a proportion that is significantly larger than would be expected by chance if the N58°E extension rate were zero or negative. The pre-1989 strain accumulation across the eventual site of the Loma Prieta rupture involves fault normal contraction as well as right-lateral shear, consistent with the rupture mechanism.

California↗