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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS1981

Estimates of avian population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

One of the major purposes of bird population studies is to document changes in population size over a period of years. The traditional method used in Europe and North America to detect population change is to calculate annual ratios. However, this method can produce spurious results when ratios are accumulated over many years. Consequently, new methods of computing trends are needed. Several new methods of estimating population trends are developed and illustrated with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Each method is compared in terms of its assumptions, biases, and limitations. On the basis of these comparisons we recommend one method that we feel most accurately detects true population trends. Both the biological and statistical justifications for the model selection are presented. Trends estimated with this model are then presented for two species.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Avian eggshell thickness in relation to egg morphometrics, embryonic development, and mercury contamination

Eggshell thickness is important for physiological, ecological, and ecotoxicological studies on birds; however, empirical eggshell thickness measurements for many species and regions are limited. We measured eggshell thickness at the equator and the egg poles for 12 avian species and related eggshell thickness to egg morphometrics, embryonic development, egg status, and mercury contamination. Within an egg, eggshells were approximately 5.1% thicker at the equator than the sharp pole of the egg, although this difference varied among species (0.6%–9.8%). Within Forster's tern ( Sterna forsteri ), where eggshell thickness was measured at 5 equally spaced positions along the longitude of the egg, eggshell thickness changed more rapidly near the sharp pole of the egg compared to near the blunt pole of the egg. Within species, eggshell thickness was related to egg width and egg volume for six of the 12 species but was not related to egg length for any species. Among species, mean eggshell thickness was strongly related to species mean egg width, egg length, egg volume, and bird body mass, although species mean body mass was the strongest predictor of species mean eggshell thickness. Using three species (American avocet [ Recurvirostra americana ], black‐necked stilt [ Himantopus mexicanus ], and Forster's tern), whose nests were carefully monitored, eggshell thickness (including the eggshell membrane) did not differ among viable, naturally abandoned, dead, or failed‐to‐hatch eggs; was not related to total mercury concentrations of the egg content; and did not decrease with embryonic age. Our study also provides a review of all existing eggshell thickness data for these 12 species.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Bird-habitat associations and local-scale vegetation structure in lowland brushlands

Brushlands support a diverse suite of bird species, including species of conservation concern in the western Great Lakes region of central North America. Information on how to effectively manage lowland brushlands for birds and associations between breeding birds and local-scale vegetation structure and composition is lacking. We surveyed lowland brushlands from 2016–2018 in Minnesota, USA, to assess bird-habitat associations using avian point-count surveys and fixed-radius vegetation plots. We used Poisson regression models to assess the associations between breeding bird species richness, total abundance, and abundance of frequently detected species (using counts as an index for abundance) to woody stem density and height, patchiness of woody stem density, variation of woody stem height, and number of woody plant species. Sedge wrens ( Cistothorus stellaris ), the most abundant species, were negatively associated with multiple woody plant metrics and positively associated with patchiness. Common yellowthroats ( Geothlypis trichas ) were the second-most abundant species and associated with low-stature woody plants (<1 m based on average heights in study sites). Bird species richness, alder flycatchers ( Empidonax alnorum ), chestnut-sided warblers ( Setophaga pensylvanica ), swamp sparrows ( Melospiza georgiana ), veeries ( Catharus fuscescens ), and yellow warblers ( Setophaga petechia ) increased with woody vegetation height. Chestnut-sided warbler and Nashville warbler ( Leiothlypis ruficapilla ) abundances also increased with woody stem density. We suggest that managing lowland brushlands to promote diverse woody plant structure, including tall shrubs and areas with patchy, open herbaceous cover, by implementing temporally and spatially variable disturbance regimes, may benefit bird species that rely on lowland brushlands with a range of vegetation structure requirements.

Minnesota↗
USGS2011

Severe bill deformity of an American Kestrel wintering in California

During a recent survey for West Nile virus in wild birds around the Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife Refuge, Imperial County, California (Dusek et al. 2010), we captured a female American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) with a severe bill deformity (Figure 1). The kestrel was captured on 9 March 2006, at 08:45, approximately 0.25 km south of the intersection of Wiest and Lindsey roads (33° 08' 42' N, 115° 26' 59' W) and 6 km east-northeast of Calipatria. It was caught on a bal-chatri trap baited with a domestic mouse (Berger and Mueller 1959), as were all the 208 kestrels captured during this study. The bird was initially perched on a high transmission line running along Wiest Road and was caught within 10 minutes of our setting the trap. In examining the bird, we observed that the maxilla beyond the cere was missing. The upper bill structure from the palatine process, which included part of the maxilla, the entire premaxilla, and the external rhamphotheca (the hardened keratin layer cover­ ing the premaxilla) was missing rostral to the bird's cere and nares (Threlfall 1968, Lucas and Stettenheim 1972, Proctor and Lynch 1993). The epidermal layer of the cere appeared to have fused over the remaining area between the nares where the upper bill normally would have been. The deformation did not appear to be recent or related to our trapping, as there were no obvious abrasions or open wounds in the region surrounding the nares and oropharynx or signs of recent trauma surrounding the oropharynx area. Both nares were clearly defined, and the tongue protruded from the open oropharynx area. After completing the physical examination, measurements, and obtaining a blood sample for testing for West Nile virus, we released the kestrel at the location of capture. After its release, we monitored the kestrel's behavior for approximately 30 minutes but did not observe any additional hunting.

California↗
USGS1993

Type specimens and basic principles of avian taxonomy

"Ornithology" may be defined as the scientific study of birds. No aspect of avian biology, including management and conservation, can be carried out without reference by name to birds at some taxonomic level. Thus, the names of species of birds, and of groups of species, can fairly be considered to be of primary importance in ornithology. To be useful, these names themselves must be defined and related to biological entities. The definition of a name is accomplished by the designation of a "type." The International Code of Zoological Nomenclature, in paragraph (C) of Article 72 (third edition, 1985), establishes criteria for eligibility of a name-bearing type. The type of a species or sub-species name is the biological specimen defined by the name, and later use of the name implies specific or subspecific identity with the type. It is imperative, therefore, that a type be available for study and comparison so that the identity of other material with it can be established.

The Auk↗
USGS1977

Effects of external applications of No. 2 fuel oil on common eider eggs

Because eggs of marine birds may be exposed to oil adhering to the feathers of adult birds, a study was undertaken to determine the effects of oil contamination. Two hundred common eider eggs were divided into four experimental sets of 50 each. Two sets were treated with No. 2 fuel oil in amounts of 5 microliters to 20 microliters; a third with 20 microliters of propylene glycol, a neutral blocking agent. The fourth set served as a control. Hatching success was 96 percent for the eggs treated with 20 microliters propylene glycol, 96 percent for the controls and 92 percent for the eggs treated with 5 microliters oil hatched. Only 69 percent of the eggs treated with 20 microliters of oil survived - a significant reduction in hatchability (P 0.05). Mean Hatching weights for all sets were statistically equal. Thus, oil pollution may significantly increase embryonic mortality in marine birds.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

The Pacific as the world’s greatest theater of bird migration: Extreme flights spark questions about physiological capabilities, behavior, and the evolution of migratory pathways

The Pacific Basin, by virtue of its vastness and its complex aeroscape, provides unique opportunities to address questions about the behavioral and physiological capabilities and mechanisms through which birds can complete spectacular flights. No longer is the Pacific seen just as a formidable barrier between terrestrial habitats in the north and the south, but rather as a gateway for specialized species, such as shorebirds, to make a living on hemispherically distributed seasonal resources. This recent change in perspective is dramatic, and the research that underpins it has presented new opportunities to learn about phenomena that often challenge a sense of normal. Ancient Polynesians were aware of the seasonal passage of shorebirds and other landbirds over the Pacific Ocean, incorporating these observations into their navigational “tool kit” as they explored and colonized the Pacific. Some ten centuries later, systematic visual observations and tracking technology have revealed much about movement of these shorebirds, especially the enormity of their individual nonstop flights. This invites a broad suite of questions, often requiring comparative studies with bird migration across other ocean basins, or across continents. For example, how do birds manage many days of nonstop exercise apparently without sleep? What mechanisms explain birds acting as if they possess a Global Positioning System? How do such extreme migrations evolve? Through advances in both theory and tracking technology, biologists are poised to greatly expand the horizons of movement ecology as we know it. In this integrative review, we present a series of intriguing questions about trans-Pacific migrant shorebirds and summarize recent advances in knowledge about migratory behavior operating at temporal scales ranging from immediate decisions during a single flight, to adaptive learning throughout a lifetime, to evolutionary development of migratory pathways. Recent advances in this realm should stimulate future research across the globe and across a broad array of disciplines.

Ornithology↗
USGS2004

A general model for the analysis of mark-resight, mark-recapture, and band-recovery data under tag loss

Estimates of waterfowl demographic parameters often come from resighting studies where birds fit with individually identifiable neck collars are resighted at a distance. Concerns have been raised about the effects of collar loss on parameter estimates, and the reliability of extrapolating from collared individuals to the population. Models previously proposed to account for collar loss do not allow survival or harvest parameters to depend on neck collar presence or absence. Also, few models have incorporated recent advances in mark‐recapture theory that allow for multiple states or auxiliary encounters such as band recoveries. We propose a multistate model for tag loss in which the presence or absence of a collar is considered as a state variable. In this framework, demographic parameters are corrected for tag loss and questions related to collar effects on survival and recovery rates can be addressed. Encounters of individuals between closed sampling periods also can be incorporated in the analysis. We discuss data requirements for answering questions related to tag loss and sampling designs that lend themselves to this purpose. We illustrate the application of our model using a study of lesser snow geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ).

Biometrics↗
USGS2021

Establishment of baseline cytology metrics in nestling American kestrels (Falco sparverius): Immunomodulatory effects of the flame retardant isopropylated triarylphosphate isomers

Avian populations must mount effective immune responses upon exposure to environmental stressors such as avian influenza and xenobiotics. Although multiple immune assays have been tested and applied to various avian species, antibody-mediated immune responses in non-model avian species are not commonly reported due to the lack of commercially available species-specific antibodies. The objectives of the present study were to advance methods for studying wild bird immune responses and to apply these to the evaluation of cytological responses after exposure of American kestrels, Falco sparverius, to a commercial flame retardant mixture containing isopropylated triarylphosphate isomers (ITP). Hatchlings were gavaged daily with safflower oil or 1.5 ug/g bw/day of ITP suspended in safflower oil, then bled on days 9, 17, and 21. The ITP treatment group ( n = 18) and a subset of controls (Poly I:C treatment group; n = 10) were injected on days 9 and 15 with a synthetic analog of viral double-stranded RNA, polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid (Poly I:C), a toll-like receptor ligand and synthetic viral mimic, and responses compared to a sham injected control group (n = 8). The hypotheses tested whether kestrels showed immunological differences among treatment groups, genetic sex, and/or white blood cell (WBC) subpopulation type over time. A flow cytometry (FCM) gating strategy categorized heterophils (H), lymphocytes (L), and monocytes (M) and their proportions, and measured relative fluorescence in response to anti-chicken CD4 binding. Fluorescent cell surfaces and some granular/vacuolar inclusions were visualized by epifluorescence microscopy. A fourth subpopulation with higher levels of granularity than M but less than H became increasingly apparent with time and was gated along with the H subpopulation; its frequency of occurrence was lowest in the ITP group ( P = 0.0023). The percentages of cells differed among treatment groups, days, and sexes ( P = 0.0001). For both sexes, percentages of H and L were higher than M in control and Poly I:C. In the ITP group, L percentages were higher than H and M ( P = 0.0457), and H and L were higher than M on days 9 and 21 ( P = 0.0001). The ratios of H:L and H:WBC, indicators of robust immunity, were also higher on days 9 and 21 than on 17 ( P = 0.0079). For each sex, the highest levels of activity measured by FCM geometric means (GEO) of fluorescence (indicative of antibody binding) were observed on day 9 ( P = 0.0001 female, and P = 0.0011 male) in H over both L and M ( P < 0.0001 for each). In males, GEO of the Poly I:C group was higher than that of the ITP group ( P = 0.0374), with no difference observed among females over all days. By using a FCM algorithm for population comparisons of fluorescence to investigate binding within H, the T(x) scores indicated higher fluorescence in control and Poly I:C groups over ITP ( P = 0.0001). Unlike chickens, Gallus gallus , which express CD4 primarily on L, kestrels bound the commercial antibody primarily within the gated H subpopulation, suggesting an immunophenotypic difference between taxa, despite a ~60% identity of Falco CD4 amino acid sequences with chicken CD4. The emergent cell subset within the gated H presented dendritic-like cell (DLC) morphological and functional properties, apparently serving as an effector cell. This study adds interpretive context to ecological investigations of infection and of potential immunomodulation by emerging compounds, whereby the early innate responses are mediated by the various cell subsets serving as useful quantitative markers of immunological condition. Data showed that dietary exposure to ITP was immunosuppressive for male and female kestrels over the course of the experiment, reducing DLC frequency compared to the Poly I:C controls. Heterophils and DLC were important in facilitating innate immunological responses.

Environment International↗
USGS1999

Forced copulation results in few extrapair fertilizations in Ross's and lesser snow geese

Extrapair paternity varies from 0 to over 70% of young among various populations of birds. Comparative studies have suggested that this variation is related to nesting density, breeding synchrony and the proportion of extrapair copulations. We used minisatellite DNA fingerprinting to examine levels of extrapair paternity in Ross's geese, Chen rossi, and lesser snow geese, C. caerulescens c. (hereafter snow geese) nesting in the largest known goose colony in the world. These geese have one of the highest known percentages of extrapair copulation (46-56% of all attempted copulations), and all of these appeared to be forced. Among all successful copulations, 33 and 38% were extrapair in Ross's and snow geese, respectively. Despite the high percentage of extrapair copulations, extrapair paternity was low in both Ross's and snow geese (2-5% of young). Extrapair paternity was not related to nest density in either species. However, in snow geese, extrapair paternity was more likely to occur in nests of females that nested asynchronously, either early or late in the season. This is one of a few reported examples of a negative relationship between extrapair paternity and breeding synchrony. Extrapair young also tended to come from eggs laid later in the clutch. Although forced extrapair copulations appear to be a relatively inefficient reproductive tactic for males, they may provide a reproductive advantage for some males.

Animal Behaviour↗
USGS1984

The orientation and navigation of juvenile alligators: evidence of magnetic sensitivity

Displaced juvenile alligators, Alligator mississipiensis , were released on land in a 9 m diameter dodecagonal arena to test their ability to orient in the absence of terrestrial landmarks. Navigational ability seemed to improve with age. When displaced along a fairly direct route yearlings (age 7–14 months) compensated for their displacement, moving in the direction from the arena to their home sites. When displaced by a circuitous route, yearlings failed to compensate for their displacement, exhibiting instead simple compass orientation in a direction that would have returned them to water had they been released on land near the site where they were captured. The older juveniles were oriented in a homeward direction under all displacement and test conditions. The latter animals may have been using geomagnetic map information to select their homeward directions as the errors in their homeward bearings correlated with small deviations in the geomagnetic field's dip angle at the time of the test (1980 r s =−0.6047, P =0.0131, all tests r s = −0.4652, P =0.0084). This effect appeared to depend on a very short-term assessment of geomagnetic conditions, as values measured 20 min before or 30 min after the tests began did not correlate with the directions the animals moved. The older juveniles appeared to use magnetically quiet hours on the night of their capture as the baseline from which to measure the geomagnetic deviations that occurred at the time of the arena test. The magnitude of the magnetic effect in the older animals suggests that the geomagnetic information may have been used to perform a ‘map’ step, as small fluctuations in dip angle correlated with much larger deviations in homeward bearings. In addition, the compass-oriented yearlings and the seemingly route-based behavior of the homeward-oriented yearlings did not appear to be influenced by geomagnetic conditions. These findings have many parallels in results obtained from bird orientation studies, providing evidence that navigation may share a common basis in different vertebrate groups.

Journal of Comparative Physiology A↗
USGS1979

Acute oral and percutaneous toxicity of pesticides to mallards: Correlations with mammalian toxicity data

Acute oral (po) and 24-hr percutaneous (perc) LD50 values for 21 common pesticides (19 anticholinesterases, of which 18 were organophosphates, and one was a carbamate; one was an organochlorine central nervous system stimulant; and one was an organonitrogen pneumotoxicant) were determined in mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ). Three of the pesticides tested were more toxic percutaneously than orally. An index to the percutaneous hazard of a pesticide, the dermal toxicity index (DTI = po LD50/perc LD50 × 100), was also calculated for each pesticide. These toxicity values in mallards were compared with toxicity data for rats from the literature. Significant positive correlations were found between log po and log percutaneous LD50 values in mallards ( r = 0.65, p < 0.01), between log po LD50 values in mallards and in rats ( r = 0.71, p < 0.01), and between log DTI values in mallards and in rats ( r = 0.52, p < 0.05). Percutaneous toxicity values were not significantly correlated between mallards and rats ( r = 0.36, p > 0.10). Variations in percutaneous methodologies are discussed with reference to interspecies variation in toxicity values. It is recommended that a mammalian DTI value approaching 30 be used as a guideline for the initiation of percutaneous toxicity studies in birds, when the po LD50 and/or projected percutaneous LD50 are less than expected field exposure levels.

Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology↗
USGS2012

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in raptors

The use of analgesia has become standard, and appropriate, practice in avian medicine. As in mammals, pain control in avian patients is usually accomplished with opioids and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) used singly or in combination for a multimodal approach. Despite their usefulness, widespread use, and relative safety in clinical use, few controlled studies in birds have been conducted on efficacy, safety, and dosing. The guidelines for the use of NSAIDs in raptors and other birds have mainly been empirical. More recently, NSAIDs in free-living raptors have emerged as a major conservation issue with the discovery that diclofenac sodium was responsible for the population crash of three species of Gyps vultures in southern Asia. In this context, residues of veterinary NSAIDs in domestic animals are now considered environmental contaminants that can be significantly toxic to vultures and possibly other avian scavengers. Ironically, the disaster with Asian vultures has led to a considerable body of research on NSAIDs in raptors to the benefit of clinicians who now have scientific information available to help assess dosing, safety, toxicity, and pharmacokinetics of NSAIDs in their raptor patients.

Book chapter↗
USGS2010

Circumpolar variation in morphological characteristics of Greater White-fronted Geese Anser albifrons

Capsule: Greater White-fronted Geese show significant variation in body size from sampling locations throughout their circumpolar breeding range. Aims: To determine the degree of geographical variation in body size of Greater White-fronted Geese and identify factors contributing to any apparent patterns in variation. Methods: Structural measures of >3000 geese from 16 breeding areas throughout the Holarctic breeding range of the species were compared statistically. Results: Palearctic forms varied clinally, and increased in size from the smallest forms on the Kanin and Taimyr peninsulas in western Eurasia to the largest forms breeding in the Anadyr Lowlands of eastern Chukotka. Clinal variation was less apparent in the Nearctic, as both the smallest form in the Nearctic and the largest form overall (the Tule Goose) were from different breeding areas in Alaska. The Tule Goose was 25% larger than the smallest form. Birds from Greenland (A. a. flavirostris) were the second largest, although only slightly larger than geese from several North American populations. Body size was not correlated with breeding latitude but was positively correlated with temperature on the breeding grounds, breeding habitat, and migration distance. Body mass of Greater White-fronted Geese from all populations remained relatively constant during the period of wing moult. Morphological distinctness of eastern and western Palearctic forms concurs with earlier findings of complete range disjunction. Conclusions: Patterns of morphological variation in Greater White-fronted Geese across the Holarctic can be generally attributed to adaptation to variable breeding environments, migration requirements, and phylo-geographical histories.

Bird Study↗
USGS2009

Program RDSURVIV: An estimation tool for capture-recapture data collected under Pollock's robust design

Several papers have demonstrated the advantages of collecting capture- recapture data using subsamples (i.e. Pollock's robust design). Compared with a standard design (i.e. one sample per period), this approach (1) permits the estimation of more demographic parameters and (2) in many cases produces more efficient estimators. Program SURVIV is a powerful tool for computing parameter estimates under the robust design. However, multinomial models developed for the robust design require cells for each possible capture history that occurs across the subsamples within a period. This makes the process of entering cell probabilities in SURVIV¸ very tedious and subject to errors. Program RDSURvIv combines SURVIV with a front end that converts capture histories taken under the robust design to the proper input format for estimating parameters under a general model, and builds that model. This model permits Markovian temporary emigration, trap response in capture probabilities and time variation in all parameters. Program RDSURVIV also automatically computes estimates under a series of submodels, but also permits the user to specify other submodels.

Bird Study↗
USGS2009

Estimating transition probabilities in unmarked populations: Entropy revisited

The probability of surviving and moving between 'states' is of great interest to biologists. Robust estimation of these transitions using multiple observations of individually identifiable marked individuals has received considerable attention in recent years. However, in some situations, individuals are not identifiable (or have a very low recapture rate), although all individuals in a sample can be assigned to a particular state (e.g. breeding or non-breeding) without error. In such cases, only aggregate data (number of individuals in a given state at each occasion) are available. If the underlying matrix of transition probabilities does not vary through time and aggregate data are available for several time periods, then it is possible to estimate these parameters using least-squares methods. Even when such data are available, this assumption of stationarity will usually be deemed overly restrictive and, frequently, data will only be available for two time periods. In these cases, the problem reduces to estimating the most likely matrix (or matrices) leading to the observed frequency distribution of individuals in each state. An entropy maximization approach has been previously suggested. In this paper, we show that the entropy approach rests on a particular limiting assumption, and does not provide estimates of latent population parameters (the transition probabilities), but rather predictions of realized rates.

Bird Study↗
USGS2009

Effects of avian cholera on survival of Lesser Snow geese Anser caerulescens: An experimental approach

Avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida , is one of the most important diseases affecting waterfowl in North America but little is known about the epizootiology of this disease or its impacts on annual survival rates. We ringed Lesser Snow Geese Anser caerulescens nesting at Wrangel Island, Russia and Banks Island, Canada with metal rings and individually coded plastic neck-collars or radio-transmitters to determine survival, movement and cause of death. We vaccinated half of the neck-collared and radiotagged geese to provide protection from avian cholera for up to one year following ringing and thus experimentally determine the impacts of this disease on survival. We found that vaccination did not reduce short-term survival of the experimental birds, compared with control geese. Neck-collared geese vaccinated in 1993 at Wrangel Island had higher survival during winter 1993–94 than control birds. In contrast, we found similar survival during winter 1994–95 between vaccinated and control geese neck-collared in 1994 at Wrangel and Banks Islands. Survival of radiotagged geese on wintering areas during 1994–95 was consistent with the vaccination versus control results for neck-collared geese during the same winter. However, we found that radiotagged geese that were vaccinated had better survival than control geese during winter 1995–96. We believe that harvest and avian cholera are the two principal causes of mortality for Lesser Snow Geese wintering in the Pacific Flyway and that avian cholera may be one of the factors affecting these populations.

Bird Study↗
USGS2018

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Aim Conservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change. Location Conterminous U.S.A. Time period 1977–2014. Major taxa studied Passerine birds. Methods We estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c . 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size. Results Species distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species. Main conclusions Models failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and frameworks continue to be refined, performance assessments and validation efforts should focus on the measures of risk and vulnerability useful for decision-making.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗