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Groundwater-Quality Assessment, Pike County, Pennsylvania, 2007

Pike County, a 545 square-mile area in northeastern Pennsylvania, has experienced the largest relative population growth of any county in the state from 1990 to 2000 and its population is projected to grow substantially through 2025. This growing population may result in added dependence and stresses on water resources, including the potential to reduce the quantity and degrade the quality of groundwater and associated stream base flow with changing land use. Groundwater is the main source of drinking water in the county and is derived primarily from fractured-rock aquifers (shales, siltstones, and sandstones) and some unconsolidated glacial deposits that are recharged locally from precipitation. The principal land uses in the county as of 2005 were public, residential, agricultural, hunt club/private recreational, roads, and commercial. The public lands cover a third of the county and include national park, state park, and other state lands, much of which are forested. Individual on-site wells and wastewater disposal are common in many residential areas. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pike County Conservation District, began a study to provide current information on groundwater quality throughout the county that will be helpful for water-resource planning. The countywide reconnaissance assessment of groundwater quality documents current conditions with existing land uses and may serve as a baseline of groundwater quality for future comparison. Twenty wells were sampled in 2007 throughout Pike County to represent groundwater quality in the principal land uses (commercial, high-density and moderate-density residential with on-site wastewater disposal, residential in a sewered area, pre-development, and undeveloped) and geologic units (five fractured-rock aquifers and one glacial unconsolidated aquifer). Analyses selected for the groundwater samples were intended to identify naturally occurring constituents from the aquifer or constituents introduced by human activities that pose a health risk or otherwise were of concern in groundwater in the county. The analyses included major ions, nutrients, selected trace metals, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), selected organic wastewater compounds, gross alpha-particle and gross beta-particle activity, uranium, and radon-222. Analyses of the 20 samples were primarily for dissolved constituents, but six samples were analyzed for both dissolved and total metals. Results of the 2007 sampling indicated few water-quality problems, although concentrations of some constituents indicated influence of human activities on groundwater. No constituent analyzed exceeded any primary drinking-water standard or maximum contaminant level (MCL) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Radon-222 levels were greater than, or equal to, the proposed MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) in water from 15 (75 percent) of the 20 wells. Radon-222 levels did not exceed the alternative MCL of 4,000 pCi/L in any groundwater sample. Radon-222 is naturally occurring, and the greatest concentrations (up to 2,650 pCi/L) were in water samples from wells in members of the Catskill Formation, a fractured-rock aquifer. The dissolved arsenic concentration of 3.9 micrograms per liter (ug/L) in one sample was greater than the health-advisory (HA) level of 2 ug/L but less than the MCL of 10 ug/L. Recommended or secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) were exceeded for pH, dissolved iron, and dissolved manganese. In six samples analyzed for dissolved and total concentrations of selected metals, total concentrations commonly were much greater than dissolved concentrations of iron, and to a lesser degree, for arsenic, lead, copper, and manganese. Concentrations of iron above the SMCL of 300 ug/L may be more widespread in the county for particulate iron than for dissolved iron. The total arsenic concentration in one of the six samples was greater than the HA level of

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeology and Ground-Water Flow in the Opequon Creek Watershed area, Virginia and West Virginia

Due to increasing population and economic development in the northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, water availability has become a primary concern for water-resource managers in the region. To address these issues, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Services and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, developed a numerical steady-state simulation of ground-water flow for the 1,013-square-kilometer Opequon Creek watershed area. The model was based on data aggregated for several recently completed and ongoing USGS hydrogeologic investigations conducted in Jefferson, Berkeley, and Morgan Counties in West Virginia and Clarke, Frederick, and Warren Counties in Virginia. A previous detailed hydrogeologic assessment of the watershed area of Hopewell Run (tributary to the Opequon Creek), which includes the USGS Leetown Science Center in Jefferson County, West Virginia, provided key understanding of ground-water flow processes in the aquifer. The ground-water flow model developed for the Opequon Creek watershed area is a steady-state, three-layer representation of ground-water flow in the region. The primary objective of the simulation was to develop water budgets for average and drought hydrologic conditions. The simulation results can provide water managers with preliminary estimates on which water-resource decisions may be based. Results of the ground-water flow simulation of the Opequon Creek watershed area indicate that hydrogeologic concepts developed for the Hopewell Run watershed area can be extrapolated to the larger watershed model. Sensitivity analyses conducted as part of the current modeling effort and geographic information system analyses of spring location and yield reveal that thrust and cross-strike faults and low-permeability bedding, which provide structural and lithologic controls, respectively, on ground-water flow, must be incorporated into the model to develop a realistic simulation of ground-water flow in the larger Opequon Creek watershed area. In the model, recharge for average hydrologic conditions was 689 m3/d/km2 (cubic meters per day per square kilometer) over the entire Opequon Creek watershed area. Mean and median measured base flows at the streamflow-gaging station on the Opequon Creek near Martinsburg, West Virginia, were 604,384 and 349,907 m3/d (cubic meters per day), respectively. The simulated base flow of 432,834 m3/d fell between the mean and median measured stream base flows for the station. Simulated base-flow yields for subwatersheds during average conditions ranged from 0 to 2,643 m3/d/km2, and the median for the entire Opequon Creek watershed area was 557 m3/d/km2. A drought was simulated by reducing model recharge by 40 percent, a rate that approximates the recharge during the prolonged 16-month drought that affected the region from November 1998 to February 2000. Mean and median measured streamflows for the Opequon Creek watershed area at the Martinsburg, West Virginia, streamflow-gaging station during the 1999 drought were 341,098 and 216,551 m3/d, respectively. The simulated drought base flow at the station of 252,356 m3/d is within the range of flows measured during the 1999 drought. Recharge was 413 m3/d/km2 over the entire watershed during the simulated drought, and was 388 m3/d/km2 at the gaging station. Simulated base-flow yields for drought conditions ranged from 0 to 1,865 m3/d/km2 and averaged 327 m3/d/km2 over the entire Opequon Creek watershed. Water budgets developed from the simulation results indicate a substantial component of direct ground-water discharge to the Potomac River. This phenomenon had long been suspected but had not been quantified. During average conditions, approximately 564,176 m3/d of base flow discharges to the Potomac River. An additional 124,379 m3/d of ground water is also estimated to discharge directly to the Potomac River and rep

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Table Rock Lake Water-Clarity Assessment Using Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite Data

Water quality of Table Rock Lake in southwestern Missouri is assessed using Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data. A pilot study uses multidate satellite image scenes in conjunction with physical measurements of secchi disk transparency collected by the Lakes of Missouri Volunteer Program to construct a regression model used to estimate water clarity. The natural log of secchi disk transparency is the dependent variable in the regression and the independent variables are Thematic Mapper band 1 (blue) reflectance and a ratio of the band 1 and band 3 (red) reflectance. The regression model can be used to reliably predict water clarity anywhere within the lake. A pixel-level lake map of predicted water clarity or computed trophic state can be produced from the model output. Information derived from this model can be used by water-resource managers to assess water quality and evaluate effects of changes in the watershed on water quality.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

Federal, State and local water-resource managers require a variety of data and modeling tools to better understand water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a statewide, interactive decision-support tool to meet this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin, defined as the difference between the unregulated streamflow and some user-specified quantity of water that must remain in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool was designed, in part, because the quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-varying quantity subject to competing demands for water. To compute sustainable yield, the MA SYE tool estimates a daily time series of unregulated, daily mean streamflow for a 44-year period of record spanning October 1, 1960, through September 30, 2004. Selected streamflow quantiles from an unregulated, daily flow-duration curve are estimated by solving six regression equations that are a function of physical and climate basin characteristics at an ungaged site on a stream of interest. Streamflow is then interpolated between the estimated quantiles to obtain a continuous daily flow-duration curve. A time series of unregulated daily streamflow subsequently is created by transferring the timing of the daily streamflow at a reference streamgage to the ungaged site by equating exceedence probabilities of contemporaneous flow at the two locations. One of 66 reference streamgages is selected by kriging, a geostatistical method, which is used to map the spatial relation among correlations between the time series of the logarithm of daily streamflows at each reference streamgage and the ungaged site. Estimated unregulated, daily mean streamflows show good agreement with observed unregulated, daily mean streamflow at 18 streamgages located across southern New England. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency goodness-of-fit values are between 0.69 and 0.98, and percent root-mean-square-error values are between 19 and 283 percent. The MA SYE tool provides an estimate of streamflow adjusted for current (2000-04) water withdrawals and discharges using a spatially referenced database of permitted groundwater and surface-water withdrawal and discharge volumes. For a user-selected basin, the database is queried to obtain the locations of water withdrawal or discharge volumes within the basin. Groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges are subtracted and added, respectively, from the unregulated, daily streamflow at an ungaged site to obtain a streamflow time series that includes the effects of these withdrawals and discharges. Users also have the option of applying an analytical solution to the time-varying, groundwater withdrawal and discharge volumes that take into account the effects of the aquifer properties on the timing and magnitude of streamflow alteration. For the MA SYE tool, it is assumed that groundwater and surface-water divides are coincident. For areas of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod where this assumption is known to be violated, groundwater-flow models are used to estimate average monthly streamflows at fixed locations. There are several limitations to the quality and quantity of the spatially referenced database of groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges. The adjusted streamflow values do not account for the effects on streamflow of climate change, septic-system discharge, impervious area, non-public water-supply withdrawals less than 100,000 gallons per day, and impounded surface-water bodies.

Massachusetts↗

Water-Quality Characterization of Surface Water in the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York, 2005-08

Water-resources managers in Onondaga County, N.Y., have been faced with the challenge of improving the water-quality of Onondaga Lake. To assist in this endeavor, the U.S. Geological Survey undertook a 3-year basinwide study to assess the water quality of surface water in the Onondaga Lake Basin. The study quantified the relative contributions of nonpoint sources associated with the major land uses in the basin and also focused on known sources (streams with large sediment loads) and presumed sinks (Onondaga Reservoir and Otisco Lake) of sediment and nutrient loads, which previously had not been evaluated. Water samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and suspended sediment at 26 surface-water sites and 4 springs in the 285-square-mile Onondaga Lake Basin from October 2005 through December 2008. More than 1,060 base-flow, stormflow, snowmelt, spring-water, and quality-assurance samples collected during the study were analyzed for ammonia, nitrite, nitrate-plus-nitrite, ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, orthophosphate, phosphorus, and suspended sediment. The concentration of total suspended solids was measured in selected samples. Ninety-one additional samples were collected, including 80 samples from 4 county-operated sites, which were analyzed for suspended sediment or total suspended solids, and 8 precipitation and 3 snowpack samples, which were analyzed for nutrients. Specific conductance, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and water temperature were periodically measured in the field. The mean concentrations of selected constituents in base-flow, stormflow, and snowmelt samples were related to the land use or land cover that either dominated the basin or had a substantial effect on the water quality of the basin. Almost 40 percent of the Onondaga Lake Basin is forested, 30 percent is in agricultural uses, and almost 21 percent, including the city of Syracuse, is in developed uses. The data indicated expected relative differences among the land types for concentrations of nitrate, ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, and orthophosphate. The data departed from the expected relations for concentrations of phosphorus and suspended sediment, and plausible explanations for these departures were posited. Snowmelt concentrations of dissolved constituents generally were greater and those of particulate constituents were less than concentrations of these constituents in storm runoff. Presumably, the snowpack acted as a short-term sink for dissolved constituents that had accumulated from atmospheric deposition, and streambed erosion and resuspension of previously deposited material, rather than land-surface erosion, were the primary sources of particulate constituents in snowmelt flows. Longitudinal assessments documented the changes in the median concentrations of constituents in base flows and event flows (combined stormflow and snowmelt) from upstream to downstream monitoring sites along the two major tributaries to Onondaga Lake - Onondaga Creek and Ninemile Creek. Median base-flow concentrations of ammonia and phosphorus and event concentrations of ammonia increased in the downstream direction in both streams. Whereas median event concentrations of other constituents in Onondaga Creek displayed no consistent trends, concentrations of ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, orthophosphate, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in Ninemile Creek decreased from upstream to downstream sites. Springs discharging from the Onondaga and Bertie Limestone had measureable effects on water temperatures in the receiving streams and increased salinity and values of specific conductance in base flows. Loads of selected nutrients and suspended sediment transported in three tributaries of Otisco Lake were compared with loads from 1981-83. Loads of ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen and orthophosphate decreased from 1981-83 to 2005-08, but those of nitrate-plus-nitrite, phosphorus, and suspended sediment increased. The largest load increase was for suspende

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water quality and hydrology of the Silver River Watershed, Baraga County, Michigan, 2005-08

The Silver River Watershed comprises about 69 square miles and drains part of northeastern Baraga County, Michigan. For generations, tribal members of the Keweenaw Bay Indian Community have hunted and fished in the watershed. Tribal government and members of Keweenaw Bay Indian Community are concerned about the effect of any development within the watershed, which is rural, isolated, and lightly populated. For decades, the area has been explored for various minerals. Since 2004, several mineral-exploration firms have been actively investigating areas within the watershed; property acquisition, road construction, and subsurface drilling have taken place close to tributary streams of the Silver River. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Keweenaw Bay Indian Community, conducted a multi-year water-resources investigation of the Silver River Watershed during 2005-08. Methods of investigation included analyses of streamflow, water-quality sampling, and ecology at eight discrete sites located throughout the watershed. In addition, three continuous-record streamgages located within the watershed provided stage, discharge, specific conductance, and water-temperature data on an hourly basis. Water quality of the Silver River Watershed is typical of many streams in undeveloped areas of Upper Michigan. Concentrations of most analytes typically were low, although several exceeded applicable surface-water-quality standards. Seven samples had concentrations of copper that exceeded the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality standards for wildlife, and one sample had concentrations of cyanide that exceeded the same standards. Concentrations of total mercury at all eight sampling sites exceeded the Great Lakes Basin water-quality standard, but the ratio of methylmercury to total mercury was similar to the 5 to 10 percent found in most natural waters. Concentrations of arsenic and chromium in bed sediments were near the threshold-effect concentration. A qualitative ecological assessment of fishes and macroinvertebrates showed that intolerant salmonids were present at most sampled sites, and macroinvertebrate communities were indicative of near-excellent or excellent conditions at all eight sites. This baseline information will aid in an ongoing monitoring effort designed to protect the water resources of the

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of groundwater withdrawal on borehole flow and salinity measured in deep monitor wells in Hawai'i: implications for groundwater management

Water-resource managers in Hawai`i rely heavily on salinity profiles from deep monitor wells to estimate the thickness of freshwater and the depth to the midpoint of the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater in freshwater-lens systems. The deep monitor wells are typically open boreholes below the water table and extend hundreds of feet below sea level. Because of possible borehole-flow effects, there is concern that salinity profiles measured in these wells may not accurately reflect the salinity distribution in the aquifer and consequently lead to misinterpretations that adversely affect water-resource management. Steplike changes in salinity or temperature with depth in measured profiles from nonpumped deep monitor wells may be indicative of water moving within the well, and such changes are evident to some extent in all available profiles. The maximum vertical step length, or displacement, in measured profiles ranges from 7 to 644 feet. Vertical steps longer than 70 feet exceed the typical thickness of massive lava flows; they therefore cannot be attributed entirely to geologic structure and may be indicative of borehole flow. The longest vertical steps occur in monitor wells located in southern O'ahu, coinciding with the most heavily developed part of the aquifer. Although regional groundwater withdrawals have caused a thinning of the freshwater lens over the past several decades, the measured midpoint of the transition zone in most deep monitor wells has shown only inconsequential depth displacement in direct response to short-term variations in withdrawals from nearby production wells. For profiles from some deep monitor wells, however, the depth of the measured top of the transition zone, indicated by a specific-conductance value of 1,000 microsiemens per centimeter, has risen several hundred feet in response to withdrawals from nearby production wells. For these deep monitor wells, monitoring the apparent top of the transition zone may not provide an accurate indication of water quality in the adjacent aquifer. Hence, the measured midpoint in boreholes is a better proxy for freshwater-lens thickness. Brackish water transported upward in a deep monitor well can exit the borehole in the upper, freshwater part of the aquifer and affect the water quality in nearby production wells. Piezometers installed at different depths will provide the best information on aquifer salinity because they are unaffected by borehole flow. Despite the effects of borehole flow, monitoring the midpoint in deep monitor wells is still useful to identify long-term trends in the movement of the transition zone.

Hawaii↗

Geohydrology of the Aucilla-Suwannee-Ochlockonee River Basin, south-central Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida

Major streams and tributaries located in the Aucilla-Suwannee-Ochlockonee (ASO) River Basin of south-central Georgia and adjacent parts of Florida drain about 8,000 square miles of a layered sequence of clastic and carbonate sediments and carbonate Coastal Plain sediments consisting of the surficial aquifer system, upper semiconfining unit, Upper Floridan aquifer, and lower confining unit. Streams either flow directly on late-middle Eocene to Oligocene karst limestone or carve a dendritic drainage pattern into overlying Miocene to Holocene sand, silt, and clay, facilitating water exchange and hydraulic connection with geohydrologic units. Geologic structures operating in the ASO River Basin through time control sedimentation and influence geohydrology and water exchange between geohydrologic units and surface water. More than 300 feet (ft) of clastic sediments overlie the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Gulf Trough-Apalachicola Embayment, a broad area extending from the southwest to the northeast through the center of the basin. These clastic sediments limit hydraulic connection and water exchange between the Upper Floridan aquifer, the surficial aquifer system, and surface water. Accumulation of more than 350 ft of low-permeability sediments in the Southeast Georgia Embayment and Suwannee Strait hydraulically isolates the Upper Floridan aquifer from land-surface hydrologic processes in the Okefenokee Basin physiographic district. Burial of limestone beneath thick clastic overburden in these areas virtually eliminates karst processes, resulting in low aquifer hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient despite an aquifer thickness of more than 900 ft. Conversely, uplift and faulting associated with regional tectonics and the northern extension of the Peninsular Arch caused thinning and erosion of clastic sediments overlying the Upper Floridan aquifer southeast of the Gulf Trough-Apalachicola Embayment near the Florida-Georgia State line. Limestone dissolution in Brooks and Lowndes Counties, Ga., create karst features that enhance water-transmitting and storage properties of the Upper Floridan aquifer, promoting groundwater recharge and water exchange between the aquifer, land surface, and surface water. Structural control of groundwater flow and hydraulic properties combine with climatic effects and increased hydrologic stress from agricultural pumpage to yield unprecedented groundwater-level decline in the northwestern and central parts of the ASO River Basin. Hydrographs from continuous-record observation wells in these regions document declining groundwater levels, indicating diminished water-resource potential of the Upper Floridan aquifer through time. More than 24 ft of groundwater-level decline occurred along the basin's northwestern boundary with the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, lowering hydraulic gradients that provide the potential for groundwater flow into the ASO River Basin and southeastward across the Gulf Trough-Apalachicola Embayment region. Slow-moving groundwater across the trough-embayment region coupled with downward-vertical flow from upper to lower limestone units composing the Upper Floridan aquifer resulted in 40-50 ft of groundwater-level decline since 1969 in southeastern Colquitt County. Multi-year episodes of dry climatic conditions during the 1980s through the early 2000s contributed to seasonal and long-term groundwater-level decline by reducing recharge to the Upper Floridan aquifer and increasing hydrologic stress by agricultural pumpage. Unprecedented and continued groundwater-level decline since 1969 caused 40-50 ft of aquifer dewatering in southeastern Colquitt County that reduced aquifer transmissivity and the ability to supply groundwater to wells, resulting in depletion of the groundwater resource.

Florida, Georgia↗

Submarine groundwater discharge and fate along the coast of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Island of Hawai`i: Part 3, spatial and temporal patterns in nearshore waters and coastal groundwater plumes, December 2003-April 2006

During seven surveys between December 2003 and April 2006, 1,045 depth profiles of surface water temperature and salinity were collected to examine variability in water column properties and the influence of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) on the nearshore waters and coral reef complex of Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park, Island of Hawai‘i. This effort was made to characterize the variability in nearshore water properties with seasonality and hydrodynamic forcing (tides, winds, and waves) and to determine the spatial and vertical extent of influence of SGD plumes on the Park’s marine biological resources. The results of this study reveal that nearshore waters of the Park were persistently influenced by plumes of submarine groundwater discharge that are generally colder, less saline, and more concentrated in nutrients than the surrounding seawater. These plumes extended between 100 and 1,000 m offshore to depths ranging between 1 and 5 m and often contained several million to hundreds of millions of gallons of brackish water. In essence, the Park’s nearshore, like much of the arid west coast of Hawai‘i, is estuarine. Although the groundwater plumes were persistent over the years studied, their spatial extent and volume varied tidally, seasonally, and annually. In one season, April 2004, an inverse relation of decreasing salinity with increasing temperature was found in the upper 5 m of the water column, unlike the other seasons, when surface water temperature and salinity were positively correlated. These data provide the first comprehensive record of nearshore water column properties within the Park boundaries and a baseline for detecting and assessing future conditions. Various resort, industrial, and municipal developments, either planned or under construction around the Park, will require significant groundwater supplies and will likely alter groundwater quantity and quality. The flux and quality of groundwater through the National Park are critical to the rare anchialine (brackish) pool ecosystems and various ecosystem functions of the nearshore waters and coral reefs. Changes in groundwater discharge are expected to have significant impacts to the area’s coastal ecosystems, including decreased freshwater outflow to the brackish anchialine pools and coral reefs and increased nutrient and contaminant concentrations. In conjunction with two complementary studies of this series (Parts 1 and 2), these data provide insight into the patterns of influence and fate of SGD in the Park’s coastal waters. This information is important for determining water-resource management strategies that balance the needs of the ecosystem with those of human livelihood. This report describes the data, presents the general findings, and gives representative examples of seasonal and tidal variability in water column properties and SGD-fed plumes across the Park’s nearshore waters.

Hawaii↗

Temporal change in biological community structure in the Fountain Creek basin, Colorado, 2001-2008

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, began a study to better understand the relations between environmental characteristics and biological communities in the Fountain Creek basin in order to aide water-resource management and guide future monitoring activities. To accomplish this task, environmental (streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) and biological (fish and macroinvertebrate) data were collected annually at 24 sites over a 6- or 8-year period (fish, 2003 to 2008; macroinvertebrates, 2001 to 2008). For this report, these data were first analyzed to determine the presence of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure among years using nonparametric multivariate statistics. Where temporal change in the biological communities was found, these data were further analyzed using additional nonparametric multivariate techniques to determine which subset of selected streamflow, habitat, or water-chemistry variables best described site-specific changes in community structure relative to a gradient of urbanization. This study identified significant directional patterns of temporal change in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure at 15 of 24 sites in the Fountain Creek basin. At four of these sites, changes in environmental variables were significantly correlated with the concurrent temporal change identified in macroinvertebrate and fish community structure (Monument Creek above Woodmen Road at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Monument Creek at Bijou Street at Colorado Springs, Colo.; Bear Creek near Colorado Springs, Colo.; Fountain Creek at Security, Colo.). Combinations of environmental variables describing directional temporal change in the biota appeared to be site specific as no single variable dominated the results; however, substrate composition variables (percent substrate composition composed of sand, gravel, or cobble) collectively were present in 80 percent of the environmental variable subsets that were significantly correlated with temporal change in the macroinvertebrate and fish community structure. Other important environmental variables related to temporal change in the biological community structure included those describing channel form (streambank height) and streamflow (normalized annual mean daily flow, high flood-pulse count). Site-specific results from this study were derived from a relatively small number of observations (6 or 8 years of data); therefore, additional years of data may reveal other sites with temporal change in biological community structure, or could define stronger and more consistent linkages between environmental variables and observed temporal change. Likewise current variable subsets could become weaker. Nonetheless, there were several sites where temporal change was detected in this study that could not be explained by the available environmental variables studied herein. Modification of current data-collection activities may be necessary to better understand site-specific temporal relations between biological communities and environmental variables.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Determination of baseline periods of record for selected streamflow-gaging stations in and near Oklahoma for use in modeling applications

Use of historical streamflow data from a least-altered period of record can be used in calibration of various modeling applications that are used to characterize least-altered flow and predict the effects of proposed streamflow alteration. This information can be used to enhance water-resources planning. A baseline period of record was determined for selected streamflow-gaging stations that can be used as a calibration dataset for modeling applications. The baseline period of record was defined as a period that is least-altered by anthropogenic activity and has sufficient streamflow record length to represent extreme climate variability. Streamflow data from 171 stations in and near Oklahoma with a minimum of 10 complete water years of daily streamflow record through water year 2007 and drainage areas that were less than 2,500 square miles were considered for use in the baseline period analysis. The first step to determine the least-altered period of record was to evaluate station information by using previous publications, historical station record notes, and information gathered from oral and written communication with hydrographers familiar with selected stations. The second step was to indentify stations that had substantial effects from upstream regulation by evaluating the location and extent of dams in the drainage basin. The third step was (a) the analysis of annual hydrographs and included visual hydrograph analysis for selected stations with 20 or more years of streamflow record, (b) analysis of covariance of double-mass curves, and (c) Kendall's tau trend analysis to detect statistically significant trends in base flow, runoff, total flow, and base-flow index related to anthropogenic activity for selected stations with 15 or more years of streamflow record. A preliminary least-altered period of record for each stream was identified by removing the period of streamflow record when streams were substantially affected by anthropogenic activity. After streamflow record was removed from designation as a least-altered period, stations that did not have at least 10 years of remaining continuous streamflow record were considered to have an insufficient baseline period for modeling applications. An optimum minimum period of record was determined for each of the least-altered periods for each station to ensure a sufficient streamflow record length to provide a representative sample of annual climate variability. An optimum minimum period of 10 years or more was evaluated by analyzing the variability of annual precipitation for selected 5-, 10-, 15-, 25-, and 35-year periods for each of 20 climate divisions that contained stations used in the baseline period analysis. The distribution of annual precipitation was compared for each consecutive overlapping 5-year period to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The least-altered period of record for stations was also compared to the period 1925-2007 by using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The results of this analysis were used to determine how many years of annual precipitation data were needed for the selected period to be statistically similar to the distribution of annual precipitation data for a long-term period, 1925-2007. Minimum optimum periods ranged from 10 to 35 years and varied by climate division. A final baseline period was determined for 111 stations that had a baseline period of at least 10 years of continuous streamflow record after the record-elimination process. A suitable baseline period of record for use in modeling applications could not be identified for 58 of the initial 171 stations because of substantial anthropogenic alteration of the stream or drainage basin and for 2 stations because the least-altered period of record was not representative of annual climate variability. The baseline period for each station was rated ?excellent?, ?good?, ?fair?, ?poor?, or ?no baseline period.? This rating was based on a qualitative evaluation of t

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow. Lastly, it describes several categories of limitations and discusses ways of extending the regional model to address issues at the local scale. Results of the simulations portray a regional groundwater-flow system that, over time, has largely maintained its natural predevelopment configuration but that locally has been strongly affected by well withdrawals. The quantity of rainfall in the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas supports a dense surface-water network and recharge rates consistent with generally shallow water tables and predominantly shallow groundwater flow. At the regional scale, pumping has not caused major modifications of the shallow flow system, but it has resulted in decreases in base flow to streams and in direct discharge to Lake Michigan (about 2 percent of the groundwater discharged and about 0.5 cubic foot per second per mile of shoreline). On the other hand, well withdrawals have caused major reversals in regional flow patterns around pumping centers in deep, confined aquifers - most noticeably in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system on the west side of Lake Michigan near the cities of Green Bay and Milwaukee in eastern Wisconsin, and around Chicago in northeastern Illinois, as well as in some shallow bedrock aquifers (for example, in the Marshall aquifer near Lansing, Mich.). The reversals in flow have been accompanied by large drawdowns with consequent local decrease in storage. On the west side of Lake Michigan, groundwater withdrawals have caused appreciable migration of the deep groundwater divides. Before the advent of pumping, the deep Lake Michigan groundwater-basin boundaries extended west of the Lake Michigan surface-water basin boundary, in some places by tens of miles. Over time, the pumping centers have replaced Lake Michigan as the regional sink for the deep flow system. The regional model is intended to support the framework pilot study of water availability and use for the Great Lakes Basin (Reeves, in press).

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Distribution of Isotopic and Environmental Tracers in Groundwater, Northern Ada County, Southwestern Idaho

Residents of northern Ada County, Idaho, depend on groundwater for domestic and agricultural uses. The population of this area is growing rapidly and groundwater resources must be understood for future water-resource management. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, used a suite of isotopic and environmental tracers to gain a better understanding of groundwater ages, recharge sources, and flowpaths in northern Ada County. Thirteen wells were sampled between September and October 2009 for field parameters, major anions and cations, nutrients, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes, tritium, radiocarbon, chlorofluorocarbons, and dissolved gasses. Well depths ranged from 30 to 580 feet below land surface. Wells were grouped together based on their depth and geographic location into the following four categories: shallow aquifer, intermediate/deep aquifer, Willow Creek aquifer, and Dry Creek aquifer. Major cations and anions indicated calcium-bicarbonate and sodium-bicarbonate water types in the study area. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes carried an oxygen-18 excess signature, possibly indicating recharge from evaporated sources or water-rock interactions in the subsurface. Chlorofluorocarbons detected modern (post-1940s) recharge in every well sampled; tritium data indicated modern water (post-1951) in seven, predominantly shallow wells. Nutrient concentrations tended to be greater in wells signaling recent recharge based on groundwater age dating, thus confirming the presence of recent recharge in these wells. Corrected radiocarbon results generated estimated residence times from modern to 5,100 years before present. Residence time tended to increase with depth, as confirmed by all three age-tracers. The disagreement among residence times indicates that samples were well-mixed and that the sampled aquifers contain a mixture of young and old recharge. Due to a lack of data, no conclusions about sources of recharge could be drawn from this study.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Fluctuations in groundwater levels related to regional and local withdrawals in the fractured-bedrock groundwater system in northern Wake County, North Carolina, March 2008-February 2009

A study of dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer in a localized area of east-central North Carolina was conducted from March 2008 through February 2009 to gain an understanding of why some privately owned wells and monitoring wells were intermittently dry. Although the study itself was localized in nature, the resulting water-resources data and information produced from the study will help enable resource managers to make sound water-supply and water-use decisions in similar crystalline-rock aquifer setting in parts of the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Physiographic Provinces. In June 2005, homeowners in a subdivision of approximately 11 homes on lots approximately 1 to 2 acres in size in an unincorporated area of Wake County, North Carolina, reported extremely low water pressure and temporarily dry wells during a brief period. This area of the State, which is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, is undergoing rapid growth and development. Similar well conditions were reported again in July 2007. In an effort to evaluate aquifer conditions in the area of intermittent water loss, a study was begun in March 2008 to measure and monitor water levels and groundwater use. During the study period from March 2008 through February 2009, regular dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer was documented with water levels in many wells ranging between 100 and 200 feet below land surface. Prior to this period, water levels from the 1980s through the late 1990s were reported to range from 15 to 50 feet below land surface. The study area includes three community wells and more than 30 private wells within a 2,000-foot radius of the dewatered private wells. Although groundwater levels were low, recovery was observed during periods of heavy rainfall, most likely a result of decreased withdrawals owing to less demand for irrigation purposes. Similar areal patterns of low groundwater levels were delineated during nine water-level measurement periods from March 2008 through February 2009. Correlation of groundwater-level distribution patterns with orientations of geologic structures obtained from surficial mapping, borehole geophysical measurements, and interpretation of fracture traces suggests two dominant trends striking north-south and N. 65 degrees W. A variation in overall response to groundwater withdrawals was noted in the continuous groundwater-level records for the monitored observation wells and dewatered private wells. The largest overall declines during the study period were observed in an observation well in which the water-level declined as much as 247 feet from mid-July through early August 2008, during a period of heavy usage. A private well had a water-level decline of about 94 feet during the same monitoring period. The large declines recorded in the observation well and the private well indicated a substantial temporary loss of storage in the fractured-bedrock aquifer near the wells, thus reducing the amount of water available to shallow wells in the area (those wells with total depths of about 300 feet), and resulting in temporary well failures until such time as the aquifer recovered.

North Carolina↗

Simulation of streamflow in the Pleasant, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, and Royal Rivers, Maine, using watershed models

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in 2008 to investigate anticipated changes in summer streamflows and stream temperatures in four coastal Maine river basins and the potential effects of those changes on populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. To achieve this purpose, it was necessary to characterize the quantity and timing of streamflow in these rivers by developing and evaluating a distributed-parameter watershed model for a part of each river basin by using the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The GIS (geographic information system) Weasel, a USGS software application, was used to delineate the four study basins and their many subbasins, and to derive parameters for their geographic features. The models were calibrated using a four-step optimization procedure in which model output was evaluated against four datasets for calibrating solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water balances, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs that used the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The calibrated watershed models performed satisfactorily, in that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration periods ranged from 0.59 to 0.75 (on a scale of negative infinity to 1) and NSE statistic values for the evaluation periods ranged from 0.55 to 0.73. The calibrated watershed models simulate daily streamflow at many locations in each study basin. These models enable natural resources managers to characterize the timing and amount of streamflow in order to support a variety of water-resources efforts including water-quality calculations, assessments of water use, modeling of population dynamics and migration of Atlantic salmon, modeling and assessment of habitat, and simulation of anticipated changes to streamflow and water temperature resulting from changes forecast for air temperature and precipitation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Geohydrology, simulation of regional groundwater flow, and assessment of water-management strategies, Twentynine Palms area, California

The Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center (MCAGCC) Twentynine Palms, California, overlies the Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins of the Morongo groundwater basin in the southern Mojave Desert. Historically, the MCAGCC has relied on groundwater pumped from the Surprise Spring subbasin to provide all of its potable water supply. Groundwater pumpage in the Surprise Spring subbasin has caused groundwater levels in the subbasin to decline by as much as 190 feet (ft) from 1953 through 2007. Groundwater from the other subbasins contains relatively high concentrations of fluoride, arsenic, and (or) dissolved solids, making it unsuitable for potable uses without treatment. The potable groundwater supply in Surprise Spring subbasin is diminishing because of pumping-induced overdraft and because of more restrictive Federal drinking-water standards on arsenic concentrations. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the MCAGCC, completed this study to better understand groundwater resources in the area and to help establish a long-term strategy for regional water-resource development. The Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins are filled with sedimentary deposits of Tertiary age, alluvial fan deposits of Quaternary-Tertiary age, and younger alluvial and playa deposits of Quaternary age. Combined, this sedimentary sequence reaches a maximum thickness of more than 16,000 ft in the Deadman and Mesquite subbasins. The sedimentary deposits of Tertiary age yield a small amount of water to wells, and this water commonly contains high concentrations of fluoride, arsenic, and dissolved solids. The alluvial fan deposits form the principal water-bearing unit in the study area and have a combined thickness of 250 to more than 1,000 ft. The younger alluvial and playa deposits are unsaturated throughout most of the study area. Lithologic and downhole geophysical logs were used to divide the Quaternary/ Tertiary alluvial fan deposits into two aquifers (referred to as the upper and the middle aquifers) and the Tertiary sedimentary deposits into a single aquifer (referred to as the lower aquifer). In general, wells perforated in the upper aquifer yield more water than wells perforated in the middle and lower aquifers. The study area is dominated by extensive faulting and moderate to intense folding that has displaced or deformed the pre-Tertiary basement complex as well as the overlying Tertiary and Quaternary deposits. Many of these faults act as barriers to the lateral movement of groundwater flow and form many of the boundaries of the groundwater subbasins. The principal recharge to the study area is groundwater underflow across the western and southern boundaries that originates as runoff in the surrounding mountains. Groundwater discharges naturally from the study area as spring flow, as groundwater underflow to downstream basins, and as water vapor to the atmosphere by transpiration of phreatophytes and direct evaporation from moist soil. The annual volume of water that naturally recharged to or discharged from the groundwater flow system in the study area during predevelopment conditions was estimated to be 1,010 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). About 90 percent of this recharge originated as runoff from the Little San Bernardino and the Pinto Mountains to the south, and the remainder originated as runoff from the San Bernardino Mountains to the west. Evapotranspiration by phreatophytes near Mesquite Lake (dry) was the primary form of predevelopment groundwater discharge. From 1953 through 2007, approximately 139,400 acre-feet (acre-ft) of groundwater was pumped by the MCAGCC from the Surprise Spring subbasin. A regional-scale numerical groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW-2000 for the Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins. The aquifer system was simulated by using three model layers representing the upper, middle, and lower aquifers. Measured groundwater levels

California↗

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Montana;Idaho↗