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Evaluating the status of individuals and populations: Advantages of multiple approaches and time scales

The assessment of population status is a central goal of applied wildlife research and essential to the field of wildlife conservation. “Population status” has a number of definitions, the most widely used having to do with the current trajectory of the population (i.e., growing, stable, or declining), or the probability of persistence (i.e., extinction risk), perhaps without any specific knowledge as to the factors driving a population’s dynamics. In contrast, a population’s status relative to the carrying capacity of the environment ( K ) is an ecologically-based definition that explicitly provides information about a major mechanism of population control. That is, it relates to the relative per capita availability of resources to individuals in a population, which can also be used to infer the state of the environment itself. Sea otters in the North Pacific provide an excellent system with which to examine various approaches to assessing population status relative to K . This is because sea otters were nearly extirpated by historic commercial overexploitation in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, followed by natural and translocation-aided population recovery during the twentieth century, and this decline and recovery has been relatively well documented. This provided a unique opportunity to study populations at the extremes of the population status spectrum. Here we describe and review the approaches that have been utilized in sea otter research to understand the status of populations relative to resource abundance. Specifically, we will illustrate the utility of various indices of population status for understanding population dynamics using the case study of a second precipitous sea otter decline in the Western Aleutians. The indices or “tools” described here fit into several broad categories including (1) energetic, (2) morphological, and (3) demographic as well as a fourth category of emerging tools that have not yet been employed in many other situations including dietary diversity, community structure, spatial distribution, and gene expression. Overall, a variety of indices used to measure population status throughout the sea otter’s range have provided insights for understanding the mechanisms driving the trajectory of various sea otter populations, which a single index could not, and we suggest using multiple methods to measure a population’s status at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The work described here also illustrates the usefulness of long-term data sets and/or approaches that can be used to assess population status retrospectively, providing information otherwise not available. While not all systems will be as amenable to using all the approaches presented here, we expect innovative researchers could adapt analogous multi-scale methods to a broad range of habitats and species including apex predators occupying the top trophic levels, which are often of conservation concern.

Book chapter↗

Phragmites management in high water: Cutting plants under water limits biomass production, carbohydrate storage, and rhizome viability

Invasion of Phragmites australis (common reed) in wetlands throughout North America, and particularly the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin, poses significant ecological problems. The extended period of low Great Lakes water levels from 2000 to 2013 created conditions for large expansions of Phragmites in the Great Lakes coastal zone. The following extended period of high water in the Great Lakes during late 2010’s, culminating in record high lake levels in 2020 allowed managers to take advantage of high water by using a cut-to-drown management strategy (i.e., cutting plants below the water surface to stop the flow of atmospheric gases) to control Phragmites populations. To examine the efficacy of a cut-to-drown control strategy, we conducted a controlled-greenhouse study that tested the effect of submergence and timing of cutting (early or late in growing season) on Phragmites growth and viability post treatment. To evaluate Phragmites growth and viability, we measured belowground biomass, rhizome non-structural carbohydrate content (NSC), and rhizome viability following a cut-to-drown treatment. Applying a cut-to-drown treatment reduced average belowground biomass production up to 99%, limited rhizome NSC content up to 83%, and inhibited rhizome viability, regardless of timing of cutting treatments. These results suggest that under high-water conditions, utilizing a cut-to-drown strategy has potential for being a useful control mechanism for Phragmites . However, further research is needed to determine to what extent these results will lead to sustained reductions in growth and viability under field conditions, where rhizome belowground biomass and storage capacity are much larger.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

Initial soil respiration response to biomass harvesting and green-tree retention in aspen-dominated forests of the Great Lakes region

Contemporary forest management practices are increasingly designed to optimize novel objectives, such as maximizing biomass feedstocks and/or maintaining ecological legacies, but many uncertainties exist regarding how these practices influence forest carbon (C) cycling. We examined the responses of soil respiration (R s ) to biomass harvesting and green-tree retention in an effort to empirically assess their impacts on C cycling. We measured R s and soil microclimatic variables over four growing seasons following implementation of these management practices using a fully replicated, operational-scale experiment in aspen-dominated forests in northern Minnesota. Treatments included three levels of biomass removal within harvested areas: whole-tree harvest (no slash deliberately retained), 20% slash retained, and stem-only harvest (all slash retained), and two levels of green-tree retention: 0.1 ha aggregate or none. The relative amount of biomass removed had a negligible effect on R s in harvested areas, but treatment effects were probably obscured by heterogeneous slash configurations and rapid post-harvest regeneration of aspen in all of the treatments. Discrete measurements of R s and soil temperature within green-tree aggregates were not discernible from surrounding harvested areas or unharvested control stands until the fourth year following harvest, when R s was higher in unharvested controls than in aggregates and harvested stands. Growing season estimates of Rs showed that unharvested control stands had higher R s than both harvested stands and aggregates in the first and third years following harvest. Our results suggest that retention of larger forest aggregates may be necessary to maintain ecosystem-level responses similar to those in unharvested stands. Moreover, they highlight the innate complexity of operational-scale research and suggest that the initial impacts of biomass harvest on R s may be indiscernible from traditional harvest in systems where incidental breakage is high.

Great Lakes↗

Contact heterogeneities in feral swine: implications for disease management and future research

Contact rates vary widely among individuals in socially structured wildlife populations. Understanding the interplay of factors responsible for this variation is essential for planning effective disease management. Feral swine ( Sus scrofa ) are a socially structured species which pose an increasing threat to livestock and human health, and little is known about contact structure. We analyzed 11 GPS data sets from across the United States to understand the interplay of ecological and demographic factors on variation in co-location rates, a proxy for contact rates. Between-sounder contact rates strongly depended on the distance among home ranges (less contact among sounders separated by >2 km; negligible between sounders separated by >6 km), but other factors causing high clustering between groups of sounders also seemed apparent. Our results provide spatial parameters for targeted management actions, identify data gaps that could lead to improved management and provide insight on experimental design for quantitating contact rates and structure.

Ecosphere↗

Biodiversity changes in Cretaceous palynofloras of eastern Asia and western North America

Palynology has great potential for providing comparative data and interpretations about changes in biodiversity during the Cretaceous Period. This is especially true for both eastern Asia and western North America because of strong floristic similarities that existed between these regions during Cretaceous time. Also, because palynomorphs of terrestrial origin can be deposited in offshore as well as terrestrial environments, significant potential exists for marine-to-continental palynostratigraphic correlations in both regions. Palynological biostratigraphy can improve the geologic dating of changes in biodiversity. During the Early Cretaceous, eastern Asia and western North America lay within the Cerebropollenites palynofloral province, a circumpolar phytogeographic zone characterized by distinctive palynological assemblages. During most of the Late Cretaceous, these regions lay within the palynofloristically unique Aquilapollenites Province, which was more restricted geographically than the Cerebropollenites Province. The most important development during Cretaceous time that is reflected in palynological assemblages was the rise of the angiosperms as the numerically and ecologically dominant forms of vegetation. The most striking short-term palynofloral event in the two regions was the sudden disappearance of species of Aquilapollenites and associated genera at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary. Both of these occurrences produced major changes in biodiversity in the terrestrial realm. Geologic research in International Geological Correlation Program Project 434 can benefit from applications of palynostratigraphy. Palynologic research within Project 434 could include development of a comprehensive palynostratigraphic zonation for the Cretaceous, the definition of regional palynostratigraphic datums, and investigation of the record of floral change at the K/T boundary. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences↗

Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): Community insights for scoping a NASA terrestrial ecology field campaign in drylands

Dryland ecosystems cover 40% of our planet's land surface, support billions of people, and are responding rapidly to climate and land use change. These expansive systems also dominate core aspects of Earth's climate, storing and exchanging vast amounts of water, carbon, and energy with the atmosphere. Despite their indispensable ecosystem services and high vulnerability to change, drylands are one of the least understood ecosystem types, partly due to challenges studying their heterogeneous landscapes and misconceptions that drylands are unproductive “wastelands.” Consequently, inadequate understanding of dryland processes has resulted in poor model representation and forecasting capacity, hindering decision making for these at-risk ecosystems. NASA satellite resources are increasingly available at the higher resolutions needed to enhance understanding of drylands' heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. NASA's Terrestrial Ecology Program solicited proposals for scoping a multi-year field campaign, of which Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) was one of two scoping studies selected. A primary goal of the scoping study is to gather input from the scientific and data end-user communities on dryland research gaps and data user needs. Here, we provide an overview of the ARID team's community engagement and how it has guided development of our framework. This includes an ARID kickoff meeting with over 300 participants held in October 2023 at the University of Arizona to gather input from data end-users and scientists. We also summarize insights gained from hundreds of follow-up activities, including from a tribal-engagement focused workshop in New Mexico, conference town halls, intensive roundtables, and international engagements.

Earth's Future↗

A geologic and anthropogenic journey from the Precambrian to the new energy economy through the San Juan volcanic field

The San Juan volcanic field comprises 25,000 km 2 of intermediate composition mid-Tertiary volcanic rocks and dacitic to rhyolitic calderas including the San Juan–Uncompahgre and La Garita caldera-forming super-volcanoes. The region is famous for the geological, ecological, hydrological, archeological, and climatological diversity. These characteristics supported ancestral Puebloan populations. The area is also important for its mineral wealth that once fueled local economic vitality. Today, mitigating and/or investigating the impacts of mining and establishing the region as a climate base station are the focuses of ongoing research. Studies include advanced water treatment, the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of propylitic bedrock for use in mine-lands cleanup, and the use of soil amendments including biochar from beetle-kill pines. Biochar aids soil productivity and revegetation by incorporation into soils to improve moisture retention, reduce erosion, and support the natural terrestrial carbon sequestration (NTS) potential of volcanic soils to help offset atmospheric CO 2 emissions. This field trip will examine the volcano-tectonic and cultural history of the San Juan volcanic field as well as its geologic structures, economic mineral deposits and impacts, recent mitigation measures, and associated climate research. Field trip stops will include a visit to (1) the Summitville Superfund site to explore quartz alunite-Au mineralization, and associated alteration and new water-quality mitigation strategies; (2) the historic Creede epithermal-polymetallic–vein district with remarkably preserved resurgent calderas, keystone-graben, and moat sediments; (3) the historic mining town of Silverton located in the nested San Juan–Silverton caldera complex that exhibits base-metal Au-Ag mineralization; and (4) the site of ANC and NTS studies. En route back to Denver, we will traverse Grand Mesa, a high NTS area with Neogene basalt-derived soils and will enjoy a soak in the geothermal waters of the Aspen anomaly at Glenwood Springs.

Colorado↗

Mississippi’s resiliency and changing environmental conditions

Mississippi is experiencing shifts in environmental conditions, many of which are expected to intensify in the coming decades, and will have important implications for ecosystems, species, and natural resource management across the state. Historical climate analyses and downscaled projections summarized for the state’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level III Ecoregions show that Mississippi will likely face increases in extremely hot days, more intense heatwaves, greater evapotranspiration, and reductions in cold-season extremes. Temperature trends indicate that while Mississippi has warmed relatively little over the last century, recent years have been among the warmest on record. Projections suggest substantial increases in the number of days with maximum temperatures at or above 95°F across all Ecoregions, particularly under higher warming scenarios. Correspondingly, the number of freezing nights is expected to decline, with statewide decreases of 7–21 days depending on the global warming level and timeframe. These combined patterns are likely to reshape habitat conditions, influence species’ thermal stress, and alter ecological processes such as soil moisture retention and stream temperature regimes. Mississippi’s hydrological systems are also expected to be significantly affected. Extreme rainfall events, particularly the most intense 1% of precipitation days, are projected to increase across the state, raising risks of flooding, erosion, and altered stream flow. Coastal Mississippi faces additional stress from sea‑level rise, which is already contributing to more frequent high‑tide flooding; projections show continued increases in inundation risk throughout the century. These flooding patterns, combined with stronger hurricane rainfall rates and the potential for landfalling storms to stall, pose ongoing threats to coastal ecosystems and communities. The state is also vulnerable to extreme weather hazards such as tornadoes. Recent research shows a geographic shift in tornado activity toward the Southeast, with Mississippi experiencing some of the nation’s greatest increases in favorable tornado days and nighttime tornado frequency—hazards that have direct implications for wildlife, habitat stability, and human safety. Drought conditions may intensify as well: higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration during dry spells could worsen water stress regardless of uncertainty in average annual precipitation. These changing environmental conditions have important consequences for Mississippi’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). Vulnerability assessments and ecological niche models indicate that several fish, mussel, crayfish, plant, amphibian, bird, and mammal species may face heightened stress due to warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, habitat loss, and increases in extreme events. For example, many cold‑water and moisture‑dependent species in the state’s rivers and wetlands are already near their thermal limits, and further warming could reduce suitable habitat. Birds breeding in bottomland hardwood forests, such as the Prothonotary Warbler, are increasingly susceptible to nest loss from flooding. Similarly, species like the Louisiana Black Bear may encounter higher risks from habitat inundation and shifting food availability. The “A Closer Look” section underscores the vulnerability of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain—one of the state’s most ecologically rich yet heavily altered Ecoregions. Its bottomland hardwood forests, wetlands, and floodplain habitats support diverse wildlife but are increasingly threatened by rising temperatures, hydrological changes, development pressures, and compounded disturbances. These habitats provide critical ecosystem services such as water filtration, flood attenuation, and biodiversity support, making their conservation particularly urgent under future conditions. Collectively, these findings indicate that Mississippi’s ongoing and projected environmental changes present both challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. Incorporating adaptation strategies into the State Wildlife Action Plan will be essential for sustaining habitats, mitigating risks, and supporting the long‑term resilience of Mississippi’s wildlife and ecosystems.

Mississippi↗

Towards an urgent yet deliberate conservation strategy: Sustaining social-ecological systems in rangelands of the Northern Great Plains, Montana

Urgency and deliberateness are often at odds when executing conservation projects, especially as the scale and complexity of objectives increases. The pace of environmental degradation supports immediate and measurable action. However, best practices for adaptive governance and building resilient social-ecological systems call for more deliberate efforts and participatory processes, which can be slow. We explore conflicts between urgency and deliberateness and the potential for their reconciliation through a case study of the challenges of conserving native rangelands in North America’s Northern Great Plains, an ecoregion targeted for global conservation initiatives. This region is undergoing a significant social-ecological transition, which underscores a need to rethink conservation strategies in light of the social-ecological system dynamics and potential future trajectories. Based on a structured narrative literature review process and iterative engagement with key regional stakeholders, we identify three interrelated factors critical to the system’s future outcomes that illustrate system complexity as well as trade-offs between urgent and deliberate action and unilateral and multilateral approaches to conservation: (1) influences of land management on biodiversity, (2) economic restructuring and shifting land use priorities, and (3) changing climate and disturbance regimes. We identify key gaps in the literature for each factor and across the factors—an effort that informs our call for research and practice agendas that address uncertainty and complexity at regional scales through more inclusive and future-oriented approaches.

Montana↗

Evaluating and managing environmental water regimes in a water-scarce and uncertain future

While the number of environmental flows and water science programmes continues to grow across the globe, there remains a critical need to better balance water availability in support of human and ecological needs and to recognise the environment as a legitimate user of water. In water‐stressed areas, this recognition has resulted in friction between water users in the public and private sectors. An opportunity exists for practitioners to be on the forefront of the science determining best practices for supporting environmental water regimes. This Special Issue brings together a collection of environmental flows science and water management papers organised around three major themes: (1) method development and testing; (2) application case studies; and (3) efficacy evaluation. Contents of this Special Issue are intended to foster collaboration and broaden transferability of the information, technical tools, models and methods needed to support environmental water management programmes. The technical sophistication of methods and modelling tools, while important to the advancement of environmental water science, may come at the expense of easily interpretable outcomes that positively influence management decisions. Researchers need to be more proactive in translating the results of advanced modelling methodologies into user‐friendly tools and methods. This will allow stakeholders and water managers to proactively test alternative water allocation scenarios to help address growing human water demands in the face of droughts and changes in climatic patterns. The application of environmental flows science and water management strategies cannot be done in isolation. Implementation involves a complex decision‐making process that integrates ecological, hydrologic and social science across diverse multifaceted governance systems and requires active stakeholder involvement. Scientists and managers must strengthen partnerships at multiple scales to develop sensible science investment strategies so that collective knowledge can be translated into wise environmental water management decisions.

Freshwater Biology↗

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

An analytical framework for estimating aquatic species density from environmental DNA

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis of water samples is on the brink of becoming a standard monitoring method for aquatic species. This method has improved detection rates over conventional survey methods and thus has demonstrated effectiveness for estimation of site occupancy and species distribution. The frontier of eDNA applications, however, is to infer species density. Building upon previous studies, we present and assess a modeling approach that aims at inferring animal density from eDNA. The modeling combines eDNA and animal count data from a subset of sites to estimate species density (and associated uncertainties) at other sites where only eDNA data are available. As a proof of concept, we first perform a cross-validation study using experimental data on carp in mesocosms. In these data, fish densities are known without error, which allows us to test the performance of the method with known data. We then evaluate the model using field data from a study on a stream salamander species to assess the potential of this method to work in natural settings, where density can never be known with absolute certainty. Two alternative distributions (Normal and Negative Binomial) to model variability in eDNA concentration data are assessed. Assessment based on the proof of concept data (carp) revealed that the Negative Binomial model provided much more accurate estimates than the model based on a Normal distribution, likely because eDNA data tend to be overdispersed. Greater imprecision was found when we applied the method to the field data, but the Negative Binomial model still provided useful density estimates. We call for further model development in this direction, as well as further research targeted at sampling design optimization. It will be important to assess these approaches on a broad range of study systems.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Natural flow regimes of the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands region

Natural flow regimes represent the hydrologic conditions to which native aquatic organisms are best adapted. We completed a regional river classification and quantitative descriptions of each natural flow regime for the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands region of Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. On the basis of daily flow records from 64 reference streams, seven natural flow regimes were identified with mixture model cluster analysis: Groundwater Stable, Groundwater, Groundwater Flashy, Perennial Runoff, Runoff Flashy, Intermittent Runoff and Intermittent Flashy. Sets of flow metrics were selected that best quantified nine ecologically important components of these natural flow regimes. An uncertainty analysis was performed to avoid selecting metrics strongly affected by measurement uncertainty that can result from short periods of record. Measurement uncertainties (bias, precision and accuracy) were assessed for 170 commonly used flow metrics. The ranges of variability expected for select flow metrics under natural conditions were quantified for each flow regime to provide a reference for future assessments of hydrologic alteration. A random forest model was used to predict the natural flow regimes of all stream segments in the study area based on climate and catchment characteristics, and a map was produced. The geographic distribution of flow regimes suggested distinct ecohydrological regions that may be useful for conservation planning. This project provides a hydrologic foundation for future examination of flow–ecology relationships in the region. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Factors influencing egg thiamine concentrations of Lake Ontario lake trout: 2019–2020

In the Great Lakes region, thiamine deficiency is considered a recruitment bottleneck for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush and has been correlated with the consumption of non-native alewife Alosa pseudoharengus . While alewife, the most abundant forage fish in Lake Ontario, are the predominant prey for lake trout, they also consume benthic prey such as round goby Neogobius melanostomus . Because variation in the proportion of alewife in lake trout diets is linked to variation in egg thiamine concentrations, understanding how factors such as region of capture and hatchery-strain of lake trout influence diet, are key to understanding the patterns of variation in egg thiamine concentrations observed in this species. With recent increases in natural recruitment of lake trout being observed in the western region of the lake, understanding if egg thiamine is a potential driver is crucial to the rehabilitation of lake trout. In this study, we evaluated egg thiamine concentrations in lake trout during 2019–2020. We found no significant difference in egg thiamine concentrations among regions. However, a stocked Lake Superior deepwater morphotype (Superior Klondike Wild – SKW) showed significantly higher egg thiamine concentrations compared to the lean morphotype including Seneca (SEN) and Lake Champlain Domestic (LCD) strains. An analysis of fatty acid signatures of each hatchery-strain suggested that the SKW strain consumed a higher proportion of round goby than lean strains. Overall, these results suggest that morphotypic differences in the feeding ecology of lake trout can result in biochemical changes which may influence the effectiveness of restoration efforts.

Lake Ontario↗

Incubation success and habitat selection of shore-spawning kokanee Onchorhynchus nerka: effects of water level regulation and habitat characteristics.

Changes to water-level regimes have been known to restructure fish assemblages and interfere with the population dynamics of both littoral and pelagic species. The effect of altered water-level regimes on shore-spawning kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka incubation success was evaluated using a comprehensive in situ study in Lake Pend Oreille, ID, USA. Survival was not related to substrate size composition or depth, indicating that shore-spawning kokanee do not currently receive a substrate-mediated survival benefit from higher winter water levels. Substrate composition also did not differ among isobaths in the nearshore area. On average, the odds of an egg surviving to the preemergent stage were more than three times greater for sites in downwelling areas than those lacking downwelling. This study revealed that shoreline spawning habitat is not as limited as previously thought. Downwelling areas appear to contribute substantially to shore-spawning kokanee recruitment. This research illustrates the value of rigorous in situ studies both for testing potential mechanisms underlying population trends and providing insight into spawning habitat selection.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

Effects of post-impoundment shore modifications on fish populations in Missouri River reservoirs

In the Missouri River main stem reservoirs in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, hydrodynamic processes have decreased the lengths of shorelines and changed their configuration during the first 20 to 25 years of impoundment. Shale shores of Lakes Fort Peck, Oahe, Sharpe, and Francis Case were rapidly eroded by wave action and water level fluctuation. Banks slumped, embayments filled, and stumps and debris were covered by sediment. Shale shores developed mean slopes of 5-7% in sections of reservoirs with 10- to 25-km fetches and more than 10% in sections with 3- to 7-km fetches. Glacial till tended to armor the shorelines and deter their degradation in all reservoirs. Bank-cutting was particularly severe up to 1973 in the readily erodible Fort Union sediments along Lake Sakakawea. Water level fluctuation retarded the development of stable shores. Some aquatic vegetation developed along shorelines and in shallow sections of reservoirs in which water levels fluctuated little. Substrate suitable for terrestrial vegetation did not develop along the shores of fluctuating reservoirs, except where alluvial deposits were present. Physical changes of the shore probably influenced fish abundance and species composition primarily by changing the quality and quantity of spawning and nursery habitat. Species that appeared to be adversely affected by shore changes required protected embayments or flooded vegetation for reporduction: white crappie, Pomoxis annularis : black crappie, P. nigromaculatus : yellow perch, Perca flavescens : northern pike, Esox lucius : bigmouth buffalo, Ictiobus cyprinellus : small mouth buffalo, I. bubalus : and carp, Cyprinus carpio . Fish that spawn in tributaries or on rocky shores were not greatly influenced by shore changes (although the growth rate of several species were slowed): sauger, Sander canadensis : channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus : white bass, Morone chrysops : goldeye, Hiodon alosoides : and river carpsucker, Carpiodes carpio . One species, the walleye, Stizostedion v. vitreum , appeared to be benefited from the shore changes. Physical changes along shores have not been adequately addressed in reservoir ecological planning. Fish population data collected before reservoir shores have reached a reasonable degree of stability do not provide a reliable estimate of the ultimate species composition in a reservoir.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models ( Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004 ). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Ecological Modelling↗

Moving beyond too little, too late: managing emerging infectious diseases in wild populations requires international policy and partnerships

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are on the rise due to multiple factors, including human facilitated movement of pathogens, broad-scale landscape changes, and perturbations to ecological systems (Jones et al. 2008; Fisher et al. 2012). Epidemics in wildlife are problematic because they can lead to pathogen spillover to new host organisms, erode biodiversity and threaten ecosystems that sustain human societies (Fisher et al. 2012; Kilpatrick 2011). There have been recent calls for large-scale research approaches to combat threats EIDs pose to wildlife (Sleeman 2013). While it is true that developing new analytical models, diagnostic assays and molecular tools will significantly avance outr abilities to respond to disease threats, we also propose that addressing difficult problems in EIDs will require considerable shofts in international health policy and infrastructure. While there are currently international organizations responsbile for rapidly initiating and coordinating preventative measures to control infectious diseases in human, livestock, and arable systems, there are few comparable instiutions that have the authority to implement transnational responses to EIDs in wildlife. This absence of well-developed infastructure hampers the rapid responses necessary to mitigate international spread of EIDs.

EcoHealth↗