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Development and Application of Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Estimating Atrazine Concentration Distributions in Streams

Regression models were developed for predicting atrazine concentration distributions in rivers and streams, using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology. Separate regression equations were derived for each of nine percentiles of the annual distribution of atrazine concentrations and for the annual time-weighted mean atrazine concentration. In addition, seasonal models were developed for two specific periods of the year--the high season, when the highest atrazine concentrations are expected in streams, and the low season, when concentrations are expected to be low or undetectable. Various nationally available watershed parameters were used as explanatory variables, including atrazine use intensity, soil characteristics, hydrologic parameters, climate and weather variables, land use, and agricultural management practices. Concentration data from 112 river and stream stations sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment and National Stream Quality Accounting Network Programs were used for computing the concentration percentiles and mean concentrations used as the response variables in regression models. Tobit regression methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, were used for developing the models because some of the concentration values used for the response variables were censored (reported as less than a detection threshold). Data from 26 stations not used for model development were used for model validation. The annual models accounted for 62 to 77 percent of the variability in concentrations among the 112 model development stations. Atrazine use intensity (the amount of atrazine used in the watershed divided by watershed area) was the most important explanatory variable in all models, but additional watershed parameters significantly increased the amount of variability explained by the models. Predicted concentrations from all 10 models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentrations at most model development and model validation stations. Results for the two sets of seasonal models were similar. Concentration distributions derived from the seasonal-model predictions provided additional information compared to distributions derived from the annual models.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Summary of water resources of Salt Lake County, Utah

This report is a summary of a comprehensive report on the present water resources of Salt Lake County, Utah, and the potential for additional development The average total annual withdrawals from surface and underground sources during 1964-68 were about 580,000 acre-feet for all uses that deplete the supply, except that used for maintenance of waterfowl-management areas. The withdrawals projected for the year 2020 are 1,200,000 acre-feet. The maximum annual firm supply that can be derived from the sources now available is about 700,000 acre-feet, of which about 200,000 acre-feet would be derived from subsurface sources. Achievement of this annual yield would require nearly complete regulation of streamflow that now is practically unregulated, larger drawdowns of ground-water levels than have been experienced, and overall management of surface and subsurface sources as parts of a single resource.

Utah↗

Decadal changes in channel morphology of a freely meandering river—Powder River, Montana, 1975–2016

Few studies exist on the long-term geomorphic effects of floods. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was able to begin such a study after a 50-year recurrence interval flood in 1978 because 20 channel cross sections along a 100-kilometer reach of river were established in 1975 and 1977 as part of a study for a proposed dam on Powder River in southeastern Montana. These cross-section measurements (data for each channel cross section are available at the USGS ScienceBase website) have been repeated about 30 times during four decades (1975–2016) and provide a unique dataset for understanding long-term changes in channel morphology caused by an extreme flood and a spectrum of annual floods. Changes in channel morphology of a 100-kilometer reach of Powder River are documented in a series of narratives for each channel cross section that include a time series of photographs as a record of these changes. The primary change during the first decade (1975–85) was the rapid vertical growth of a new inset flood plain within the flood-widened channel. Changes during the second decade (1985–95) were characterized by slower growth of the flood plain, and the effects of ice-jam floods typical of a northward-flowing river. Changes during the third decade (1995–2005) showed little vertical growth of the inset flood plain, which had reached a height that limited overbank deposition. And changes during the final decade (2005–16) covered in this report showed that, because the new inset flood plain had reached a limiting height, the effects of the large annual flood of 2008 (largest flood since 1978) were relatively small compared to smaller floods in previous decades. Throughout these four decades, the riparian vegetation, which interacts with the river, has undergone a gradual but substantial change that may have lasting effects on the channel morphology.

Montana↗

Conceptual Model of Hydrologic and Thermal Conditions of the Eastbank Aquifer System near Rocky Reach Dam, Douglas County, Washington

The Lower and Combined Aquifers of the Eastbank Aquifer system, located in a river-terrace deposit along the Columbia River near Rocky Reach Dam, Washington, are primarily recharged by the Columbia River and provide water to the Eastbank Hatchery and the regional water system servicing the cities of Wenatchee, East Wenatchee, and parts of unincorporated Chelan and Douglas Counties. In 2006, mean annual pumpage from the aquifers by the hatchery and regional water system was about 43 and 16 cubic feet per second, respectively. Reportedly, temperatures of ground water pumped by the hatchery have been increasing, thereby making water potentially too warm for salmonid fish production. An evaluation of hourly ground-water and river temperatures from January 1991 through August 2007 indicates increasing interannual trends in temperatures in most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers from 1999 through 2006 that correspond to increasing trends in the annual mean and annual maximum river temperatures during the same period of 0.07 and 0.17?C per year, respectively. There were no trends in the annual minimum river temperatures from 1999 through 2006, and there were no trends in the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river temperatures from 1991 through 1998 and from 1991 through 2007. Increases in river temperatures from 1999 through 2006 are within the natural variability of the river temperatures. Most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers reached thermal equilibrium?defined by constant time lags between changes in river temperatures and subsequent changes in ground-water temperatures?during 1991?98. The only exceptions are the Combined Aquifer north of the well field of the regional water system, which had not reached thermal equilibrium by 2006, and the Lower Aquifer west of the well fields of the hatchery and the regional water system, which reached thermal equilibrium prior to 1991. Because most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers were in thermal equilibrium from 1999 through 2006 and seasonal pumpage patterns were relatively stable, reported trends of increasing temperatures of water pumped by the hatchery well field are most likely explained by increasing trends in river temperatures. Most of the water pumped by the hatchery well field recharges in an area west to southwest of the well field about 2 months prior to the time it is pumped from the aquifer. The northern extent of the hatchery well field may pump some colder water from a bedrock depression to the north and west of the well field. The conceptual model of hydrologic and thermal conditions is supported by analyses of historical water temperatures, water-level data collected on July 18, 2007, and dissolved-constituent and bacterial concentrations in samples collected on August 20?22, 2007.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ectoparasitism and energy infrastructure limit survival of preadult Golden Eagles in the Southern Great Plains

Much of the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) continues to undergo intensive energy development that could affect the region's Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ), yet the species' population status there is unknown. During 2011–2020, we used satellite telemetry to assess annual survival rates and causes of mortality among 40 preadult (<3 yr of age) Golden Eagles in the SGP; 29 were monitored beginning at the late nestling stage and 11 immigrated into the SGP from western regions. For comparison we monitored 15 preadult Golden Eagles from nests in the Central Great Plains (CGP), where energy development was less extensive. We estimated survival rates by using a multi-state model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for probabilities of causes of death. Mean annual survival in the SGP during the preadult period was 0.060, versus 0.512 in the CGP and ∼0.7–0.9 reported elsewhere in the coterminous western USA. Mexican chicken bugs ( Haematosiphon inodorus ) were implicated in deaths of at least seven Golden Eagles during the ∼2-wk late nestling stage and in two deaths <3 mo after fledging. Energy infrastructure especially electrocutions accounted for 12 (57.1%) of 21 deaths of post-fledged preadults. Seven of 11 immigrant eagles died. Overall, probabilities of death of a Golden Eagle during the preadult period in the SGP due to Mexican chicken bugs and to electrocution were both 0.345. We estimated that the SGP population may be declining 9% annually due to poor recruitment; mitigation of underlying factors should be a priority for managing Golden Eagles in the western USA.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To allow for water budget comparisons to the ephemeral models, the two perennial models were then run from 1980 to 2007, the time period constrained somewhat by the later record for the high-altitude climate station used in the simulation. The daily mean values of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater inflow simulated from the watershed models were summed to provide mean annual rates and volumes derived from each year of the simulation. Mean annual bias for the calibration period for Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek watersheds was within 6 and 3 percent, and relative errors were about 18 and -2 percent, respectively. For the 1980-2007 period of record, mean recharge efficiency and runoff efficiency (percentage of precipitation as groundwater inflow and runoff) averaged 7 and 39 percent, respectively, for Ash Canyon Creek, and 8 and 31 percent, respectively, for Clear Creek. For this same period, groundwater inflow volumes averaged about 500 acre-feet for Ash Canyon and 1,200 acre-feet for Clear Creek. The simulation period for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from water years 1978 to 2007. Mean annual simulated precipitation ranged from 6 to 11 inches. Estimates of recharge efficiency for the ephemeral watersheds ranged from 3 percent for Eureka Canyon to 7 percent for Eldorado Canyon. Runoff efficiency ranged from 7 percent for Eureka Canyon and 15 percent at Brunswick Canyon. For the 1978-2007 period, mean annual groundwater inflow volumes ranged from about 40 acre-feet for Eureka Canyon to just under 5,000 acre-feet for Churchill Canyon watershed. Watershed model results indicate significant interannual variability in the volumes of groundwater inflow caused by climate variations. For most of the modeled watersheds, little to no groundwater inflow was simulated for years with less than 8 inches of precipitation, unless those years were preceded by abnormally high precipitation years with significant subsurface storage carryover.

Nevada↗

General geology and ground-water resources of the island of Maui, Hawaii

Maui, the second largest island in the Hawaiian group, is 48 miles long, 26 miles wide, and covers 728 square miles. The principal town is Wailuku. Sugar cane and pineapples are the principal crops. Water is used chiefly for irrigating cane. The purpose of the investigation was to study the geology and the ground-water resources of the island. Maui was built by two volcanoes. East Maui or Haleakala Volcano is 10,025 feet high and famous for its so-called crater, which is a section of Hawaii National Park. Evidence is given to show that it is the head of two amphitheater-headed valleys in which numerous secondary eruptions have occurred and that it is not a crater, caldera, or eroded caldera. West Maui is a deeply dissected volcano 5,788 feet high. The flat Isthmus connecting the two volcanoes was made by lavas from East Maui banking against the West Maui Mountains. Plate 1 shows the geology, wells, springs, and water-development tunnels. Plate 2 is a map and description of points of geologic interest along the main highways. Volcanic terms used in the report are briefly defined. A synopsis of the climate is included and a record of the annual rainfall at all stations is given also. Puu Kukui, on West Maui, has an average annual rainfall of 389 inches and it lies just six miles from Olowalu where only 2 inches of rain fell in 1928, the lowest ever recorded in the Hawaiian Islands. The second rainiest place in the Territory is Kuhiwa Gulch on East Maui where 523 inches fell during 1937. Rainfall averages 2,360 million gallons daily on East Maui and 580 on West Maui. Ground water at the point of use in months of low rainfall is worth about $120 per million gallons, which makes most undeveloped supplies valuable. The oldest rocks on East Maui are the very permeable primitive Honomanu basalts, which were extruded probably in Pliocene and early Pleistocene time from three rift zones. These rocks form a dome about 8,000 feet high and extend an unknown distance below sea level. Covering this dome are the Kula volcanics, extruded probably in early and middle Pleistocene time, and characterized by andesites, andesitic basalts, and picritic basalts. They are 2.000 feet thick on the summit and 50 to 200 feet thick at the periphery. They contain a sufficient number of interbedded soils, thin vitric tuff beds, and lava-filled valleys in their upper part to give rise to valuable perched springs in wet areas. The Kula lavas accumulated during a waning volcanic phase which was followed by a quiescence long enough for the erosion of deep amphitheater-headed valleys in the east or wet half of the mountain. Volcanic activity was renewed in middle (?) to late Pleistocene time and continued until Recent time, during which the Hana volcanic series was laid down. The last lava flow was erupted about 1750. The Hana lavas comprise andesitic, picritic, and olivine basalts. They veneered large areas of the east and south slopes, partly filled the deep amphitheater-headed valleys, and deeply buried the smaller valleys in the eastern half of the mountain. The Hana rocks are exceedingly permeable and much rain sinks into them. The oldest rocks on West Maui are the very permeable primitive Wailuku basalts, which were extruded probably in Pliocene and early Pleistocene time from two rifts and from many radial fissures. The basalts form a dome about 5,600 feet high and extend an unknown distance below sea level. Iao Valley is the eroded caldera of this dome. Forming an incomplete veneer over the dome are the Honolua soda trachytes and oligoclase andesites. They were extruded in late Pliocene (?) or early Pleistocene time, chiefly from bulbous domes. The clinker beds carry some water but the rocks are generally too dense to be good aquifers. During early (?) Pleistocene the West Maui volcano was cut by deep amphitheater-headed valleys and then all of Maui was deeply submerged. Four scattered eruptions occurred on West Maui in middle (?) and late Pleistocene time. The cones and lavas cover only small areas and are called the Lahaina volcanic series. The sedimentary rocks of both East and West Maui are chiefly late Quaternary and comprise fans, landslide debris, delta deposits, and valley fills, mostly of poorly permeable and poorly assorted bouldery alluvium. They are overlain on the Isthmus by extensive calcareous dunes of three ages. A mud flow more than 300 feet thick is exposed in Kaupo Valley. During the fluctuations of the ocean in the Pleistocene, the island was emerged and submerged several times. Calcareous fossiliferous marine conglomerates deposited during this period are found up to an altitude of 250 feet on West Maui. The Homomanu, Wailuku, and Kula lavas are the chief aquifers. They supply 28 irrigation wells which yield an average of 170 million gallons a day of basal water. These wells are mine-like shafts with infiltration tunnels and are called Maui-type wells. Well 16 yields 40,000,000 gallons daily with a 22-foot drawdown, which is the largest amount yielded by any well in the Hawaiian Islands. The largest spring (no. 26) on the island is artesian. It yields 10,400,000 gallons daily and issues from Kula lavas near Nahiku. West Maui has numerous perennial streams supplied by springs from a dike complex. Twenty-three tunnels in West Maui recover 20.5 million gallons a day of high-level water, mostly from this dike complex. East Maui has few perennial streams in proportion to its size, and they are chiefly small due to the water sheds being underlain with permeable lavas. Forty tunnels recover 6 million gallons a day of high-level water in East Maui and all from structures other than dikes. It is estimated that about 100 million gallons a day of basal water wastes into the sea from West Maui and about 700 million gallons a day from East Maui. A number of sites are described where wells could be sunk to recover this water. Sites are also described where tunnels could be driven to recover high-level supplies. The hydrology of East and West Maui is conspicuously different in many respects, mainly because of the difference in the stage of dissection, the extensive veneer of very permeable Hann lavas on East Maui, and the comparatively small area of the Lahaina lavas of similar age on West Maui. The only thermal water known in the Hawaiian Islands, except on the active volcano of Kilauea, is in a well in West Maui. The Nahiku area has been mapped and studied in detail. The upper part of the Honomanu volcanic series, exposed in the sea cliffs, in petrographic character is transitional into the overlying Kula lavas, Kula and Hana time were characterized by a long succession of valley-cutting episodes, each valley being filled by lava erupted from the east rift zone. The lavas include olivine basalts, picritic basalts, and basaltic andesites, In the Nahiku area basal ground water occurs largely in the Honomanu basalts. Perched water occurs in many of the later lavas, generally following the axes of buried valleys. The members which perch the water are mostly ashy soil beds, although an unusually extensive, thick layer of much decomposed clinker also appears to be a supporting member. Most of the water travels through the basal clinker members of aa lavas. Artesian water is encountered in the upper, transitional part of the Honomanu volcanic series. The aquifer is permeable porphyritic pahoehoe; the confining members are relatively impermeable nonporphyritic aa. The lavas of East Maui are described according to stratigraphic groups. The oldest or Honomanu lavas are olivine basalts like the primitive lavas in other Hawaiian volcanoes. The later or Kula and Hana lavas include basalts, basaltic andesites, andesites, and picritic basalts. The normative nepheline of analyzed East Maui lavas has not been identified in the mode. The degree of differentiation is inversely proportional to the frequency of eruptions. The lavas of West Maui volcano are divided into the Wailuku volcanic series, consisting largely of olivine basalts with less abundant olivine-poor basalts, hypersthene basalts, and picritic basalts; the Honolua volcanic series, consisting of oligoclase andesites and soda trachytes; and the Lahaina volcanic series, consisting of nepheline basanite and picritic basalts. Coarse-grained gabbros intrude the Wailuku lavas. Differentiation was undoubtedly partly by crystal settling, but the alkali curves of the variation diagram suggest that volatile transfer was of some importance.

Hawaii↗

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

January 1985 water levels, and data related to water-level changes, western and south-central Kansas

Hydrologic data related to water level measurements made in approximately 1,350 observation wells in western and south-central Kansas are shown in this report. The measurements were made in mid-winter when pumping was minimal and water levels had recovered, for the most part, form the effects of pumping during the previous irrigation season. Annual hydrologic data are provided for relating water level changes from a ' base-reference year ' (predevelopment year), a year of abnormally high rainfall and minimum pumpage (1966 or 1974), and each of 7 consecutive years of measurement (1979-85). The ' base-reference year ' is designated as 1940 for the southwestern area, 1944 for the south-central area, and 1950 for the northwestern, west-central, and Equus Beds areas. Data also are provided for relating the average annual water level changes, saturated thickness of the deposits, and percentage changes in saturated thickness. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Analysis and inundation mapping of the April-May 2011 flood at selected locations in northern and eastern Arkansas and southern Missouri

Precipitation that fell from April 19 through May 3, 2011, resulted in widespread flooding across northern and eastern Arkansas and southern Missouri. The first storm produced a total of approximately 16 inches of precipitation over an 8-day period, and the following storms produced as much as 12 inches of precipitation over a 2-day period. Moderate to major flooding occurred quickly along many streams within Arkansas and Missouri (including the Black, Cache, Illinois, St. Francis, and White Rivers) at levels that had not been seen since the historic 1927 floods. The 2011 flood claimed an estimated 21 lives in Arkansas and Missouri, and damage caused by the flooding resulted in a Federal Disaster Declaration for 59 Arkansas counties that received Federal or State assistance. To further the goal of documenting and understanding floods, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers–Little Rock and Memphis Districts, and Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, conducted a study to summarize meteorological and hydrological conditions before the flood; computed flood-peak magnitudes for 39 streamgages; estimated annual exceedance probabilities for 37 of those streamgages; determined the joint probabilities for 11 streamgages paired to the Mississippi River at Helena, Arkansas, which refers to the probability that locations on two paired streams simultaneously experience floods of a magnitude greater than or equal to a given annual exceedance probability; collected high-water marks; constructed flood-peak inundation maps showing maximum flood extent and water depths; and summarized flood damages and effects. For the period of record used in this report, peak-of-record stage occurred at 24 of the 39 streamgages, and peak-of-record streamflow occurred at 13 of the 30 streamgages where streamflow was determined. Annual exceedance probabilities were estimated to be less than 0.5 percent at three streamgages. The joint probability values for streamgages paired with the Mississippi River at Helena, Ark., streamgage indicate a low probability of concurrent flooding with the paired streamgages. The inundation maps show the flood-peak extent and water depth of flooding for two stream reaches on the White River and two on the Black River; the vicinities of the communities of Holly Grove and Cotton Plant, Ark.; a reach of the White River that includes the crossing of Interstate 40 north of De Valls Bluff, Ark.; and the Tailwaters of Beaver Dam near Eureka Springs, Ark., Table Rock Dam near Branson, Mo., and Bull Shoals Dam near Flippin, Ark. The data and inundation maps can be used for flood response, recovery, and planning efforts by Federal, State, and local agencies.

Arkansas;Missouri↗

Selected water-level records for Oklahoma, 1976-1978

A systematic program to collect water-level records in Oklahoma began in 1937. The objectives of this program are (1) to provide long-term records of water-level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the prediction of water-level trends and indicate future availability of ground-water supplies, and (3) to provide information for use in basic research. Water-level data in table 1 are from wells that are measured annually, prior to the irrigation season, to achieve the most natural representation of the static water level. Water-level measurements listed in the column under 1976 may have been made during December 1975 or January, February, March, April, or May, 1976. Measurements listed in the column 1977 may have been made during December 1976 or January, February, March, or April 1977. Figure 1 shows the counties and number of wells therein, where data were obtained for this report. Records of water levels in Oklahoma are collected through a cooperative program by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The records are tabulated and published by the U.S. Geological Survey on an annual basis. The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those of the U.S. Geological Survey except for the Cheyenne Sandstone which is considered to be Purgatoire Sandstone by the Oklahoma Geological Survey (Robert 0. Fay, Personal Communication, August 9, 1979).

Oklahoma↗

Low-flow characteristics of Kentucky streams - A preliminary report

The U.S. Geological Survey has been gathering low-flow data on streams throughout Kentucky for several decades. Much of the data now have been analyzed to determine the frequency of the annual low flow on those streams. Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of low flow is necessary for planning, managing, and protecting water resources of the Commonwealth. Some specific uses are to analyze potential water-supply capacity, for control of water quality, and for the management of recreation potential. This preliminary report presents a low-flow characteristic at each site where defined, and where the flow is not significantly regulated. That characteristic, the 7-day, 10-year low flow, is the one which seems to be most in demand because of its use in water quality planning and control.

Kentucky↗

Identifying new invasive plants in the face of climate change: A focus on sleeper species

Sleeper populations are established populations of introduced species whose population growth is limited by one or more abiotic or biotic conditions. Sleeper populations pose an invasion risk if a change in those limiting conditions, such as climate change, enables population growth and invasion. With thousands of established introduced species, it is critical that we identify and prioritize potential sleepers. Here, we identified introduced plants established in the northeastern United States with high impacts and the potential to expand with climate change. Of 1795 introduced plants established in one or more northeastern states, we focused on 118 taxa regulated by one or more states outside the Northeast plus 61 taxa recorded as invasive globally and under consideration for regulation in the Northeast. We used the environmental impact classification for alien taxa framework to quantify negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts reported in the scientific literature for these 169 taxa. We compared mean minimum winter temperature and annual precipitation where the species were abundant with current and future climate in the Northeast to evaluate whether climate change could increase risk. We identified 49 plants with ecological impacts linked to loss of native diversity and 94 plants with socioeconomic impacts. 81 species showed an increase in climatic suitability for abundant populations with climate change. Using ecological impact, increased climate suitability, and presence in fewer than 20 Northeastern counties, we highlight 18 species as high priorities for potential management in the Northeast. This approach can inform climate-smart, proactive management of sleeper populations before they become invasive.

Biological Invasions↗

Adverse moisture events predict seasonal abundance of Lyme disease vector ticks (Ixodes scapularis)

Background : Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in north temperate regions worldwide, affecting an estimated 300,000 people annually in the United States alone. The incidence of LB is correlated with human exposure to its vector, the blacklegged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ). To date, attempts to model tick encounter risk based on environmental parameters have been equivocal. Previous studies have not considered (1) the differences between relative humidity (RH) in leaf litter and at weather stations, (2) the RH threshold that affects nymphal blacklegged tick survival, and (3) the time required below the threshold to induce mortality. We clarify the association between environmental moisture and tick survival by presenting a significant relationship between the total number of tick adverse moisture events (TAMEs - calculated as microclimatic periods below a RH threshold) and tick abundance each year. Methods : We used a 14-year continuous statewide tick surveillance database and corresponding weather data from Rhode Island (RI), USA, to assess the effects of TAMEs on nymphal populations of I. scapularis . These TAMEs were defined as extended periods of time (>8 h below 82% RH in leaf litter). We fit a sigmoid curve comparing weather station data to those collected by loggers placed in tick habitats to estimate RH experienced by nymphal ticks, and compiled the number of historical TAMEs during the 14-year record. Results : The total number of TAMEs in June of each year was negatively related to total seasonal nymphal tick densities, suggesting that sub-threshold humidity episodes >8 h in duration naturally lowered nymphal blacklegged tick abundance. Furthermore, TAMEs were positively related to the ratio of tick abundance early in the season when compared to late season, suggesting that lower than average tick abundance for a given year resulted from tick mortality and not from other factors. Conclusions : Our results clarify the mechanism by which environmental moisture affects blacklegged tick populations, and offers the possibility to more accurately predict tick abundance and human LB incidence. We describe a method to forecast LB risk in endemic regions and identify the predictive role of microclimatic moisture conditions on tick encounter risk.

Rhode Island↗

Geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, New Mexico, 2017

About one-quarter of the water supply for the Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico, is derived from groundwater pumping along North Fork Eagle Creek in the Eagle Creek Basin near Alto, New Mexico. Because of concerns regarding the effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water hydrology in the Eagle Creek Basin and the effects of the 2012 Little Bear Fire, which resulted in substantial losses of vegetation in the basin, the monitoring of North Fork Eagle Creek for short-term geomorphic change has been required by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest, as part of the permitting decision that allows for the continued pumping of the production wells. The monitoring of short-term geomorphic change in North Fork Eagle Creek began in June 2017 with a geomorphic survey of the stream reach located between the North Fork Eagle Creek near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station (USGS site 08387550) and the Eagle Creek below South Fork near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station (USGS site 08387600). The 2017 geomorphic survey was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, and was the first in a planned series of five annual geomorphic surveys. The results of the 2017 geomorphic survey are summarized and interpreted in this report and are provided in their entirety in its companion data release. The study reach is 1.86 miles long, and large sections of the reach are characterized by intermittent streamflow. Where water is normally present (including at the upper and lower portions of the reach near the streamflow-gaging stations), the discharge typically remains below 2 cubic feet per second throughout the year. Therefore, if geomorphic change is to occur, it will likely be driven by seasonal high-flow events. Discharge records from streamflow-gaging stations in the Eagle Creek Basin indicated that high-flow events in the basin (with peaks above 50 cubic feet per second) typically occurred during the North American monsoon months of July, August, and September. Additionally, the records appear to indicate that, as expected, overland runoff and “flashy” responses to rainfall have increased in the 5 years since the 2012 Little Bear Fire. For the 2017 geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, cross sections were established and surveyed at 14 locations along the study reach. Cross-section survey results indicated that channel characteristics (including channel width and area) varied widely along the study reach. Also, as part of the survey, woody debris accumulations and pools in the channel of the study reach were identified, cataloged, photographed, and surveyed for location. There were 58 woody debris accumulations and 14 pools found in the study reach. On the basis that debris jams could be a driver of geomorphic change in North Fork Eagle Creek, woody debris accumulations were classified according to their debris jam potential. The burn marks found on some woody debris indicated that the 2012 Little Bear Fire may be a contributing factor to the volume of debris in North Fork Eagle Creek. However, the woody debris present at the time of the survey did not appear to have substantially affected the geomorphic state of the study reach. Further, the structure and composition of the woody debris accumulations indicated that, under high-flow conditions, most woody debris would likely be transported downstream and out of the study reach without causing substantial geomorphic change through further jamming.

New Mexico↗

Summary of water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in Colorado: Fiscal year 1987

The annual summary of water-resources activities in Colorado is presented for fiscal year 1987. The report includes an introduction of these activities and names of the management personnel to whom information requests may be addressed; a summary of the U.S. Geological Survey mission and of the Water Resources Division mission; and a discussion of the water resources in Colorado in fiscal year 1987, including data collection on surface water and groundwater. All current Colorado hydrologic investigations are listed - their problems, objectives, approaches, progress, and plans for fiscal year 1987. A list of current cooperators for fiscal year 1987 and a list of reports published or released during fiscal year 1987 also are given.

Colorado↗

Potentiometric surfaces of the intermediate aquifer system, west-central Florida, September, 1993

A map of the September 1993 potentiometric surface of the intermediate aquifer system in west- central Florida depicts water levels for the annual high water-level period. Water levels measured in September 1993 were generally below those reported for September 1992. In 134 wells with paired measurements, the September 1993 level ranged from 4.86 feet below to 5.91 feet above the September 1992 level and averaged 0.59 foot below the September 1992 level. The general decline in water levels during this period was largely the result of below normal rainfall and above average seasonal ground-water withdrawals.

Florida↗

Continuous stream discharge, salinity, and associated data collected in the lower St. Johns River and its tributaries, Florida, 2016

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District, plans to deepen the St. Johns River channel in Jacksonville, Florida, from 40 to 47 feet along 13 miles of the river channel, beginning at the mouth of the river at the Atlantic Ocean, to accommodate larger, fully loaded cargo vessels. The U.S. Geological Survey installed continuous data-collection stations to monitor discharge, salinity, and associated parameters at 22 sites prior to the commencement of dredging. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored stage and discharge at 13 sites, and water temperature, specific conductance, and salinity at 15 sites; some sites included all parameters. This report contains information pertinent to the data collection sites from their installation date to September 2016, with additional information and data from Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Site installations began in October 2015; all sites were installed and began collecting data by January 2016. All data available for each site after October 2015 are included in this report. Discharge and salinity ranged widely during the data collection period, which included the effects of Hurricane Hermine in September 2016 and Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Of the tributaries, annual mean discharge was greatest at Ortega River, followed by Cedar River, Julington Creek, Durbin Creek, and Clapboard Creek. Annual mean salinity for the main-stem sites indicates that salinity decreases with distance upstream, which is expected. The closest tributary site to the Atlantic Ocean (Clapboard Creek) produced the highest annual mean salinity of the tributaries, and Durbin Creek salinity was the lowest of all monitoring locations.

Florida↗