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USGS2021

Demographic response of brown treesnakes to extended population suppression

From a management perspective, reptiles are relatively novel invasive taxa. Few methods for reptile control have been developed and very little is known about their effectiveness for reducing reptile populations, particularly when the goal is eradication. Many reptiles, and especially snakes, are cryptic, secretive, and undergo extended periods of inactivity, traits that decrease detection probabilities and create challenges in estimating population size or evaluating management effects. The brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ) is a notorious invasive species that continues to cause major ecological and economic harm following their introduction to the island of Guam after World War II. They have been the subject of intensive research on the effectiveness of various techniques to control snakes, including the first ever aerial system for the distribution of toxic acetaminophen baits for reptile control. We provide a cohort-based life table for a cryptic and invasive reptile undergoing extended population control using toxic baits from March 2017–2020. We also evaluated the effects of single (toxic bait) versus multi-tool (toxic bait and live trapping) management efforts on population trajectories, and estimated which population vital rates are most important for influencing population growth or decline in a treated landscape. Treatment of the population with acetaminophen-laced baits resulted in an immediate reduction followed by a gradual population decline that suggested that eradication was the probable outcome given sufficient treatment time but that the period of treatment was decades in magnitude. Inclusion of live trapping reduced the predicted time required to achieve eradication by more than half. Preventing the transition of 1,000-mm snout-vent length (SVL) females to larger sizes was predicted to have the greatest effect on population reduction based on integral projection modeling. Our results suggest that toxic baits are capable of eradicating brown treesnakes in an enclosure, although inclusion of trapping reduced overall treatment time required. Tools that effectively target females >1,000 mm SVL may have the greatest effect on reducing overall treatment timelines.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2007

Monitoring boreal forest leaf area index across a Siberian burn chronosequence: A MODIS validation study

Landscapes containing differing amounts of ecological disturbance provide an excellent opportunity to validate and better understand the emerging Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) vegetation products. Four sites, including 1‐year post‐fire coniferous, 13‐year post‐fire deciduous, 24‐year post‐fire deciduous, and >100 year old post‐fire coniferous forests, were selected to serve as a post‐fire chronosequence in the central Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk (57.3°N, 91.6°E) with which to study the MODIS leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation index (VI) products. The collection 4 MODIS LAI product correctly represented the summer site phenologies, but significantly underestimated the LAI value of the >100 year old coniferous forest during the November to April time period. Landsat 7‐derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI) performed better than normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to separate the deciduous and conifer forests, and both indices contained significant correlation with field‐derived LAI values at coniferous forest sites ( r 2 = 0.61 and r 2 = 0.69, respectively). The reduced simple ratio (RSR) markedly improved LAI prediction from satellite measurements ( r 2 = 0.89) relative to NDVI and EVI. LAI estimates derived from ETM+ images were scaled up to evaluate the 1 km resolution MODIS LAI product; from this analysis MODIS LAI overestimated values in the low LAI deciduous forests (where LAI<5) and underestimated values in the high LAI conifer forests (where LAI>6). Our results indicate that further research on the MODIS LAI product is warranted to better understand and improve remote LAI quantification in disturbed forest landscapes over the course of the year.

Krasnoyarsk Kray↗

USGS2021

Abundance of Gulf Coast Waterdogs (Necturus beyeri) along Bayou Lacombe, Saint Tammany Parish, Louisiana

Few ecological studies have been conducted on Gulf Coast Waterdogs (Necturus beyeri), and published studies have focused on relatively small stream sections of 125 m to 1.75 km. In 2015, we sampled 25 sites along a 13.4-km stretch of Bayou Lacombe (Saint Tammany Parish, Louisiana, USA) to better understand factors that may influence the distribution of Gulf Coast Waterdogs within streams. We checked 250 unbaited traps once per week for 3 weeks, capturing 170 Gulf Coast Waterdogs at 18 of 25 sites. We used hierarchical models of abundance to estimate abundance at each site, as a function of site covariates including pH, turbidity, and distance from headwaters. The abundance of Gulf Coast Waterdogs within Bayou Lacombe was highest toward the center of the sampled stream segment, but we found no evidence that pH or turbidity affected abundance within our study area. Site-level abundance estimates of Gulf Coast Waterdogs ranged from 0 to 82, and we estimated there were 767 (95% Bayesian credible interval [CRI]: 266–983) Gulf Coast Waterdogs summed across all 25 sampling sites. We derived an estimate of 6,321 (95% CRI: 2,139–15,922) Gulf Coast Waterdogs for the entire 13.4-km stream section, which includes our 25 sites and the adjoining stream reaches between sites. Our results suggest that Gulf Coast Waterdogs may be uncommon or absent in the headwaters, possibly because of shallow water and swift currents with limited preferred habitats. Gulf Coast Waterdogs favor the middle stream reaches with adequate depth and abundant preferred microhabitats.

Louisiana↗

USGS2010

Winter fidelity and apparent survival of lesser snow goose populations in the Pacific flyway

The Beringia region of the Arctic contains 2 colonies of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada, and wintering in North America. The Wrangel Island population is composed of 2 subpopulations from a sympatric breeding colony but separate wintering areas, whereas the Banks Island population shares a sympatric wintering area in California, USA, with one of the Wrangel Island subpopulations. The Wrangel Island colony represents the last major snow goose population in Russia and has fluctuated considerably since 1970, whereas the Banks Island population has more than doubled. The reasons for these changes are unclear, but hypotheses include independent population demographics (survival and recruitment) and immigration and emigration among breeding or wintering populations. These demographic and movement patterns have important ecological and management implications for understanding goose population structure, harvest of admixed populations, and gene flow among populations with separate breeding or wintering areas. From 1993 to 1996, we neckbanded molting birds at their breeding colonies and resighted birds on the wintering grounds. We used multistate mark-recapture models to evaluate apparent survival rates, resighting rates, winter fidelity, and potential exchange among these populations. We also compared the utility of face stain in Wrangel Island breeding geese as a predictor of their wintering area. Our results showed similar apparent survival rates between subpopulations of Wrangel Island snow geese and lower apparent survival, but higher emigration, for the Banks Island birds. Males had lower apparent survival than females, most likely due to differences in neckband loss. Transition between wintering areas was low (<3%), with equal movement between northern and southern wintering areas for Wrangel Island birds and little evidence of exchange between the Banks and northern Wrangel Island populations. Face staining was an unreliable indicator of wintering area. Our findings suggest that northern and southern Wrangel Island subpopulations should be considered a metapopulation in better understanding and managing Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese. Yet the absence of a strong population connection between Banks Island and Wrangel Island geese suggests that these breeding colonies can be managed as separate but overlapping populations. Additionally, winter population fidelity may be more important in lesser snow geese than in other species, and both breeding and wintering areas are important components of population management for sympatric wintering populations.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1998

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Distribution and movements of female northern pintails radiotagged in San Joaquin Valley, California

To improve understanding of northern pintail (Anas acuta) distribution in central California (CCA), we radiotagged 191 Hatch-Year (HY) and 228 After-Hatch-Year (AHY) female northern pintails during late August-early October, 1991-1993, in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and studied their movements through March each year. Nearly all (94.3%) wintered in CCA, but 5.7% went to southern California, Mexico, or unknown areas; all that went south left before hunting season. Of the 395 radiotagged pintails that wintered in CCA, 83% flew from the SJV north to other CCA areas (i.e., Sacramento Valley [SACV], Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta [Delta], Suisun Marsh, San Francisco Bay) during September-January; most went during December. Movements coincid- ed with start of hunting seasons and were related to pintail age, mass, capture location, study year, and weather. Among pintails with less than average mass, AHY individuals tended to leave the SJV earlier than HY individuals. Weekly distribution was similar among capture locations and years but a greater percentage of pintails radiotagged in Tulare Basin (south part of SJV) were known to have (10.3% vs. 0.9%) or probably (13.8% vs. 4.6%) wintered south of CCA than pintails radiotagged in northern SJV areas (i.e., Grassland Ecological Area [EA] and Mendota Wildlife Area [WA]). Also, a greater percentage of SJV pintails went to other CCA areas before hunting season in the drought year of 1991-1992 than later years (10% vs. 3-5%). The percent of radiotagged pintails from Grass- land EA known to have gone south of CCA also was greater during 1991-1992 than later years (2% vs. 0%), but both the known (19% vs. 4%) and probable (23% vs. 12%) percent from Tulare Basin that went south was greatest during 1993-1994, when availability of flooded fields there was lowest. The probability of pintails leaving the SJV was 57% (95% CI = 8-127%) greater on days with than without rain, and more movements per bird out of SJV occurred in years with more rain and fog but fewer days with southerly winds. Movements by pintails and changes in pintail distributions, direct recovery distributions, and harvest rates suggest the disproportionate decline of pin- tails in Tulare Basin was due to a lower percentage of pintails moving there in fall and a greater percentage or ear- lier movements north and south out of Tulare Basin. With fewer in Tulare Basin to replace Grasslands EA pintails going north in December, pintail abundance in the northern SJV declined during late winter. Changes in move- ment patterns correspond to habitat loss in Tulare Basin and increased habitats in SACV and western mainland Mexico. Habitat improvements, especially in Tulare Basin, that increase food, sanctuary, and winter survival would probably help restore pintails throughout the SJV.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2022

Importance of nonindigenous harpacticoids (Crustacea: Copepoda) decrease with depth in Lake Ontario

Harpacticoid copepods can be a substantial component of the meiobenthic community in lakes and serve an ecological role as detritivores. Here we present the first species-level lake-wide quantitative assessment of the harpacticoid assemblage of Lake Ontario with emphasis on the status of nonindigenous species. Additionally, we provide COI-5P sequences of harpacticoid taxa through Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD). Harpacticoids were collected at depths from 0.1 to 184 m and from a range of substrates from August to September 2018 as part of the Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) offshore benthic survey. Twenty-six meiobenthic samples were analyzed using microscopy for community composition analysis of harpacticoids. We found thirteen indigenous and three nonindigenous species of harpacticoid, with the introduced species dominating at shallow depths. The community transitioned from nonindigenous to indigenous species dominance as depth increased. Nonindigenous species accounted for 79% of the community (by abundance) at depths <20 m, 55% from 20 to 40 m, and only 24% at depths >40 m. The nonindigenous species encountered included the first detections of Schizopera borutzkyi (Monchenko, 1967) and Heteropsyllus nunni (Coull, 1975) from Lake Ontario. S. borutzkyi was the most abundant harpacticoid species in the lake, approaching a maximum density of 50,000/m 2 and a lake-wide average density of 7,900/m 2 . Numerically important indigenous species included Bryocamptus nivalis (Willey, 1925), Canthocamptus robertcokeri (Wilson, 1958), Canthocamptus staphylinoides (Pearse, 1905), and Moraria cristata (Chappuis, 1929). The prevalence of nonindigenous harpacticoids in the meiobenthos of Lake Ontario suggests further investigations of Great Lakes meiofauna communities are warranted.

Lake Ontario↗

USGS2007

Environmental and ecological conditions surrounding the production of large year classes of walleye ( Sander vitreus ) in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

The Saginaw Bay walleye population ( Sander vitreus ) has not fully recovered from a collapse that began in the 1940s and has been dependent on stocking with only limited natural reproduction. Beginning in 2003, and through at least 2005, reproductive success of walleye surged to unprecedented levels. The increase was concurrent with ecological changes in Lake Huron and we sought to quantitatively model which factors most influenced this new dynamic. We developed Ricker stock-recruitment models for both wild and stock fish and evaluated them with second-order Akaike's information criterion to find the best model. Independent variables included adult alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) abundance, spring water temperatures, chlorophyll a levels and total phosphorus levels. In all, 14 models were evaluated for production of wild age-0 walleyes and eight models for stocked age-0 walleyes. For wild walleyes, adult alewife abundance was the dominant factor, accounting for 58% of the variability in age-0 abundance. Production of wild age-0 fish increased when adult alewives were scarce. The only other plausible factor was spring water temperature. Predictably, alewife abundance was not important to stocked fish; instead temperature and adult walleye abundance were more significant variables. The surge in reproductive success for walleyes during 2003–2005 was most likely due to large declines in adult alewives in Lake Huron. While relatively strong year classes (age-1 and up) have been produced as a result of increased age-0 production during 2003–2005, the overall magnitude has not been as great as the initial age-0 abundance originally suggested. It appears that over-winter mortality is higher than in the past and may stem from higher predation or slower growth (lower condition for enduring winter thermal stress). From this it appears that low alewife abundance does not assure strong walleye year classes in Saginaw Bay but may be a prerequisite for them.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2015

Ecological effects of the harvest phase of geoduck clam (Panopea generosa Gould, 1850) aquaculture on infaunal communities in southern Puget Sound, Washington USA.

Intertidal aquaculture for geoducks ( Panopea generosa Gould, 1850) is expanding in southern Puget Sound, Washington, where gently sloping sandy beaches are used for field culture. Geoduck aquaculture contributes significantly to the regional economy, but has become controversial because of a range of unresolved questions involving potential biological impacts on marine ecosystems. From 2008 through 2012, the authors used a “before-after-control-impact” experimental design, emphasizing spatial scales comparable with those used by geoduck culturists to evaluate the effects of harvesting market-ready geoducks on associated benthic infaunal communities. Infauna were sampled at three different study locations in southern Puget Sound at monthly intervals before, during, and after harvests of clams, and along extralimital transects extending away from the edges of cultured plots to assess the effects of harvest activities in adjacent uncultured habitat. Using multivariate statistical approaches, strong seasonal and spatial signals in patterns of abundance were found, but there was scant evidence of effects on the community structure associated with geoduck harvest disturbances within cultured plots. Likewise, no indications of significant “spillover” effects of harvest on uncultured habitat adjacent to cultured plots were noted. Complementary univariate approaches revealed little evidence of harvest effects on infaunal biodiversity and indications of modest effects on populations of individual infaunal taxa. Of 10 common taxa analyzed, only three showed evidence of reduced densities, although minor, after harvests whereas the remaining seven taxa indicated either neutral responses to harvest disturbances or increased abundance either during or in the months after harvest events. It is suggested that a relatively active natural disturbance regime, including both small-scale and large-scale events that occur with comparable intensity but more frequently than geoduck harvest events in cultured plots, has facilitated assemblage-level infaunal resistance and resilience to harvest disturbances.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Does incorporating gear selectivity during macroscale investigations of fish growth reduce size-selective sampling bias in parameter estimates?

Understanding of fish growth, the spatial variability in individual growth, and the potential drivers of such variability is a fundamental component of many ecological investigations. However, sampling gears are always size-selective, and this selectivity can result in biased parameter estimates that can lead to, for example, biased stock assessments that use growth estimates. Using seven flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) populations from across the USA as an example, we investigated to what degree the incorporation of gear selectivity in growth models reduces size-selective bias in the estimation of growth parameters during macroscale investigations of fish growth. We developed a series of simulation scenarios by combining different sampling methods to obtain fish samples and different gear selectivity assumptions to estimate parameters. Results showed that the efficacy of incorporating gear selectivity in growth models to reduce size-selective sampling bias during macroscale investigations depends on multiple factors, including ( i ) the size distribution of small and large fish in the sample (which is a function of sampling methods), and ( ii ) consistency of sampling methods across populations. Incorporation of gear selectivity may reduce bias when data are lacking for large fish and when sampling methods are inconsistent across populations. Demographics of the sampled populations and the growth parameter of interest can also affect the utility of directly incorporating gear selectivity into growth models. Because multiple factors can influence the efficacy of incorporating gear selectivity into growth models, the decision to do so likely needs to be made on a case-by-case basis. This study extends the existing gear selectivity research by focusing on macroscale fish growth investigations across multiple populations and provides guidance on how to handle gear selectivity assumptions during such investigations.

Canadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2025

Leisure boat harbours, hidden alien species, and pollution: A case study of Hinsholmskilen harbour (Gothenburg, Sweden)

Small leisure boat harbours have important aesthetic and recreational values in any country with a coastline. In Sweden, there are about 860 000 leisure boats, which is one of the world's highest numbers in relation to the country's population. However, small boat harbours also present a wide range of environmental problems, including the introduction of alien species and high pollution. In this study, we investigated the ecological quality status (EcoQS) of the Hinsholmskilen small boat harbour, located southwest of the city of Gothenburg (Sweden). We performed a reconnaissance survey of the harbour's previously unstudied benthic foraminiferal communities and analysed surface sediment (0–2 cm) samples for potentially toxic elements: copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). The results show that, based on the total benthic foraminiferal distribution (dead and live specimens), the assemblages in Hinsholmskilen harbour represent a typical European estuarine community with highly abundant Ammonia and Elphidium species. Based on molecular and morphological data, we report the presence of two alien and putatively invasive species likely originating from Asia: Trochammina hadai and Ammonia confertitesta (phylotype T6). Both species have recently been identified elsewhere on the Swedish west coast based on molecular and morphological data but do not have a well-known distribution. The sediment analysis for potentially toxic elements showed that the harbour has good to high EcoQS corresponding to no or little deviation from reference conditions for Cd, Co, Ni, and Pb distribution. Some of the contaminants (Pb, As, Zn, and Cr) showed poor to bad EcoQS in the innermost harbour in proximity to high-pressure cleaning plants, where boats are usually lifted, cleaned, and prepared for winter storage on land. Finally, Cu and Hg showed consistently bad and poor EcoQS all over the harbour, reflecting the use of both metals as biocides in antifouling boat paints.

Gothenburg↗

USGS2011

Data logging of body temperatures provides precise information on phenology of reproductive events in a free-living arctic hibernator

Precise measures of phenology are critical to understanding how animals organize their annual cycles and how individuals and populations respond to climate-induced changes in physical and ecological stressors. We show that patterns of core body temperature ( T b ) can be used to precisely determine the timing of key seasonal events including hibernation, mating and parturition, and immergence and emergence from the hibernacula in free-living arctic ground squirrels ( Urocitellus parryii ). Using temperature loggers that recorded T b every 20 min for up to 18 months, we monitored core T b from three females that subsequently gave birth in captivity and from 66 female and 57 male ground squirrels free-living in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range Alaska. In addition, dates of emergence from hibernation were visually confirmed for four free-living male squirrels. Average T b in captive females decreased by 0.5–1.0°C during gestation and abruptly increased by 1–1.5°C on the day of parturition. In free-living females, similar shifts in T b were observed in 78% ( n = 9) of yearlings and 94% ( n = 31) of adults; females without the shift are assumed not to have given birth. Three of four ground squirrels for which dates of emergence from hibernation were visually confirmed did not exhibit obvious diurnal rhythms in T b until they first emerged onto the surface when T b patterns became diurnal. In free-living males undergoing reproductive maturation, this pre-emergence euthermic interval averaged 20.4 days ( n = 56). T b -loggers represent a cost-effective and logistically feasible method to precisely investigate the phenology of reproduction and hibernation in ground squirrels.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗

USGS2005

Multi-stage sampling for large scale natural resources surveys: A case study of rice and waterfowl

Large-scale sample surveys to estimate abundance and distribution of organisms and their habitats are increasingly important in ecological studies. Multi-stage sampling (MSS) is especially suited to large-scale surveys because of the natural clustering of resources. To illustrate an application, we: (1) designed a stratified MSS to estimate late autumn abundance (kg/ha) of rice seeds in harvested fields as food for waterfowl wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV); (2) investigated options for improving the MSS design; and (3) compared statistical and cost efficiency of MSS to simulated simple random sampling (SRS). During 2000–2002, we sampled 25–35 landowners per year, 1 or 2 fields per landowner per year, and measured seed mass in 10 soil cores collected within each field. Analysis of variance components and costs for each stage of the survey design indicated that collecting 10 soil cores per field was near the optimum of 11–15, whereas sampling >1 field per landowner provided few benefits because data from fields within landowners were highly correlated. Coefficients of variation (CV) of annual estimates of rice abundance ranged from 0.23 to 0.31 and were limited by variation among landowners and the number of landowners sampled. Design effects representing the statistical efficiency of MSS relative to SRS ranged from 3.2 to 9.0, and simulations indicated SRS would cost, on average, 1.4 times more than MSS because clustering of sample units in MSS decreased travel costs. We recommend MSS as a potential sampling strategy for large-scale natural resource surveys and specifically for future surveys of the availability of rice as food for waterfowl in the MAV and similar areas.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou↗

USGS2025

Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) movement states and backwater use can inform removal efforts

Expansion of grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) within the Laurentian Great Lakes poses significant ecological and economic risks. Suppression efforts to remove grass carp have increased to curtail population growth, but capture efficiency remains low. One management challenge is the lack of understanding how this invasive species is using its novel habitats in the Great Lakes. This study aimed to identify spatiotemporal patterns in grass carp behavior and backwater use that could be exploited by management efforts, including removal. We used acoustic telemetry to examine when grass carp occurred in areas vulnerable to removal by boat electrofishing in the Sandusky River, Ohio, USA. Hidden Markov models were used to categorize behavioral states and evaluate their relationships with environmental factors. Best performing 2-state and 3-state hidden Markov models included proximity to backwater as a factor in state-dependent step length and transition probability between states, with a higher probability of being in less mobile states during the middle of the day and in backwaters. For the 2-state model, this less mobile state was also more common during warmer temperatures. Distinct diel patterns and backwater use identified in this study provide critical insights for improving management. Model results suggest that current removal efforts, focused primarily on the mainstem of the river, may benefit from adjustments in both timing and removal gear. The findings raise further questions about unobserved behaviors contributing to state assignment and sufficiently flexible adaptive management strategies to account for individual variation in grass carp behavior.

Ohio↗

USGS2007

Year-class formation of upper St. Lawrence River northern pike

Variables associated with year-class formation in upper St. Lawrence River northern pike Esox lucius were examined to explore population trends. A partial least-squares (PLS) regression model (PLS 1) was used to relate a year-class strength index (YCSI; 1974-1997) to explanatory variables associated with spawning and nursery areas (seasonal water level and temperature and their variability, number of ice days, and last day of ice presence). A second model (PLS 2) incorporated four additional ecological variables: potential predators (abundance of double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and yellow perch Perca flavescens), female northern pike biomass (as a measure of stock-recruitment effects), and total phosphorus (productivity). Trends in adult northern pike catch revealed a decline (1981-2005), and year-class strength was positively related to catch per unit effort (CPUE; R2 = 0.58). The YCSI exceeded the 23-year mean in only 2 of the last 10 years. Cyclic patterns in the YCSI time series (along with strong year-classes every 4-6 years) were apparent, as was a dampening effect of amplitude beginning around 1990. The PLS 1 model explained over 50% of variation in both explanatory variables and the dependent variable, YCSI first-order moving-average residuals. Variables retained (N = 10; Wold's statistic ??? 0.8) included negative YCSI associations with high summer water levels, high variability in spring and fall water levels, and variability in fall water temperature. The YCSI exhibited positive associations with high spring, summer, and fall water temperature, variability in spring temperature, and high winter and spring water level. The PLS 2 model led to positive YCSI associations with phosphorus and yellow perch CPUE and a negative correlation with double-crested cormorant abundance. Environmental variables (water level and temperature) are hypothesized to regulate northern pike YCSI cycles, and dampening in YCSI magnitude may be related to a combination of factors, including wetland habitat changes, reduced nutrient loading, and increased predation by double-crested cormorants. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2010

Estimation of successful breeding pairs for wolves in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Under the Endangered Species Act, documenting recovery and federally mandated population levels of wolves (Canis lupus) in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) requires monitoring wolf packs that successfully recruit young. United States Fish and Wildlife Service regulations define successful breeding pairs as packs estimated to contain an adult male and female, accompanied by ???2 pups on 31 December of a given year. Monitoring successful breeding pairs will become more difficult following proposed delisting of NRM wolves; alternatives to historically intensive methods, appropriate to the different ecological and regulatory context following delisting, are required. Because pack size is easier to monitor than pack composition, we estimated probability a pack would contain a successful breeding pair based on its size for wolf populations inhabiting 6 areas in the NRM. We also evaluated the extent to which differences in demography of wolves and levels of human-caused mortality among the areas influenced the probability of packs of different sizes would contain successful breeding pairs. Probability curves differed among analysis areas, depending primarily on levels of human-caused mortality, secondarily on annual population growth rate, and little on annual population density. Probabilities that packs contained successful breeding pairs were more uniformly distributed across pack sizes in areas with low levels of human mortality and stable populations. Large packs in areas with high levels of human-caused mortality and high annual growth rates had relatively high probabilities of containing breeding pairs whereas those for small packs were relatively low. Our approach can be used by managers to estimate number of successful breeding pairs in a population where number of packs and their sizes are known. Following delisting of NRM wolves, human-caused mortality is likely to increase, resulting in more small packs with low probabilities of containing breeding pairs. Differing contributions of packs to wolf population growth based on their size suggests monitoring successful breeding pairs will provide more accurate insights into population dynamics of wolves than will monitoring number of packs or individuals only.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2006

Multistate survival models and their extensions in Program MARK

Program MARK provides .100 models for the estimation of population parameters from mark?encounter data. The multistate model of Brownie et al. (1993) and Hestbeck et al. (1991) allows animals to move between states with a probability of transition. The simplest multistate model is an extension of the Cormack?Jolly?Seber (CJS) live recapture model. arameters estimated are state-specific survival rates and encounter probabilities and transition probabilities between states. The multistate model provides a valuable framework to evaluate important ecological questions. For example, estimation of state-specific survival and transition probabilities between the biological states of breeders and nonbreeders allows estimation of the cost of reproduction. Transitions between physical states, such as spatial areas, provide estimates needed for meta-population models. The basic multistate model uses only live recaptures, but 3 extensions are included in MARK. A multistate model with live and dead encounters is available, although the dead encounters are not state specific. Robust-design multistate models are also included in MARK, with both open and closed robust designs. These models assume that animals move between states only between primary sessions of the robust design. For the closed robust design, we can specify 12 different data types for the modeling of encounter probabilities during the primary session, including 6 versions of the closed model likelihood incorporating population size (N) directly in the likelihood, and 6 versions of the Huggins model in which N is estimated as a derived parameter outside the likelihood. One assumption that is generally necessary to estimate state-specific survival rates in the multistate model is that transitions take place immediately before encounter occasions. Otherwise, survival rates over the interval between encounter occasions are a mix of survival rates over multiple states. Advantages of using MARK to estimate the parameters of the various multistate models include flexibility of model specification to include group, time, and individual covariates, estimation of variance components, model averaging of parameter estimates, and Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures on the logit scale.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Litterfall production of mangroves in the Huizache-Caimanero lagoon system, México

The ecological legacy of the Huizache-Caimanero lagoon system has long been known as a trophically rich and productive ecosystem that supported artisanal fisheries of local and regional importance; however, a decline in fisheries' yields has been observed in recent decades. Mangroves are a fundamental component of this ecosystem, though data records and field studies are lacking in describing their structure and seasonal characteristics. Mangrove litterfall production was monitored during 2012–13 and described for the dominant species, Avicennia germinans (L.) Stearn and Laguncularia racemosa (L.) C.F. Gaertn. Forest surveys and monthly litter collections were obtained along a latitudinal gradient within the larger lagoon system to characterize the forest structure, leaf biomass, and related biological indicators (chlorophyll a concentration and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI] estimated on leaf tissues). Results showed that structural characteristics (diameter at breast height, basal area, height, and crown diameter) were greater in Huizache, corresponding to patches with a dominance of A. germinans , while higher stem density was recorded for L. racemosa in Caimanero, comparatively similar to other mangrove habitat in NW Mexico. Litterfall was highest from May to October for both species. Litterfall production was also higher overall in 2012 in comparison to 2013, possibly corresponding with meteorological differences, most notably wind conditions. Annual litterfall production was similar by species across northern and southern Sinaloa. A contrast of the NDVI by site and species showed a wide interval, including low values for A. germinans , suggesting stress conditions for this species.

Huizache-Caimanero lagoon system↗