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USGS2024

The potential for species distribution models to distinguish source populations from sinks

1. While species distribution models (SDM) are frequently used to predict species occurrences to help inform conservation management, there is limited evidence evaluating whether habitat suitability can reliably predict intrinsic growth rates or distinguish source from sink populations. Filling this knowledge gap is critical for conservation science, as applications of SDMs for management purposes ultimately depend on these typically unobserved population or metapopulation dynamics. 2. Using regression, we associate previously published population level estimates of intrinsic growth and abundance derived from a Bayesian analysis of mark-recapture data for 17 bird species found in the contiguous United States with SDM habitat suitability estimates fitted here to opportunistic data for these same species. We then use AUC to measure how well SDMs can distinguish populations categorized as sources and sinks, depending on their intrinsic growth rates estimated from the mark-recapture data. We built SDMs using two different approaches, boosted regression trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM), and compared their predictive performance. Each SDM was built with presence points obtained from eBird and 10 environmental variables previously selected to model intrinsic growth rates and abundance for these species. 3. We show that SDMs built with opportunistic data are poor predictors of species demography in general; both BRT and GLM explained very little spatial variation of intrinsic growth rate and population abundance (median R2 across 17 species was close to 0.1 for both SDM methods). SDMs do, however, estimate higher suitability for source populations as compared to sinks. Out of 13 species which had both source and sink populations, both BRT and GLM had AUC values greater than 0.7 for 7 species when discriminating between sources and sinks. 4. Habitat suitability have the potential to be a useful measure to indicate a population’s ability to sustain itself as a source population, however more research on a diverse set of taxa is essential to fully explore this potential. This interpretation of habitat suitability can be particularly useful for conservation practice, and identification of explicit cases of when and how SDMs fail to match population demography can be informative for advancing ecological theory.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2011

An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular↗

USGS2025

Shallow geologic framework of the Mississippi Sound and the potential for sediment resources

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2019

Back from the brink: Sustainable management of the Lake Erie walleye fishery

This chapter describes management actions implemented after a large-scale population decline of the Walleye Sander vitreus population in Lake Erie, one of the Laurentian Great Lakes in North America. Intensive fishery exploitation during the 1950s combined with declining water quality conditions collapsed the Walleye stock during the early 1960s. The fishery persisted at low levels until 1970 when the fishery was closed (1970–1972) due to elevated mercury concentrations in Walleye tissue. Lake Erie fishery managers at the time recognized the need for a coordinated, multi-agency approach to protect this ecologically, economically, and socially important resource. The harvest ban was lifted in 1973 when mercury levels dropped below advisory levels. In 1976, an interagency management framework was established, which relied on a coordinated, science-based management philosophy consisting of estimating safe harvest levels, performing applied research, and conducting annual population assessments. The population rebounded during the 1980s in response to improving environmental conditions, regulated harvest, and a series of strong recruitment events. Declines in harvest and population size were again observed during the late 1990s and mid-2000s, likely due to variation in natural processes controlling recruitment, and fishery managers enacted harvest practices during this period to promote long-term sustainability. Today, Lake Erie Walleyes support one of the largest self-sustaining freshwater fisheries in North America. Throughout the years, Lake Erie managers have iteratively adopted changes to their population assessment model and altered harvest policies to avoid future fishery and population collapses. More than 40 years later, Lake Erie continues to support commercial and recreational fisheries lake wide. Lessons learned from the stock recovery and subsequent coordinated management for fishery sustainability include the importance of conducting routine population assessments, using science-based research to address key uncertainties, adopting modern stock assessment approaches, incorporating stakeholder input into the quota setting process, and addressing environmental concerns collaboratively at the lake level.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

DEEP SEARCH: Deep sea exploration to advance research on coral/canyon/cold seep habitats

Launched in August 2017, Deep Sea Exploration to Advance Research on Coral/Canyon/Cold seep Habitats (DEEP SEARCH) is a multiyear, multi-agency study to characterize the deep-sea ecosystems of the US Mid- and South Atlantic (Figure 1). The study is funded through an interagency partnership between NOAA, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), and the US Geological Survey, and it is sponsored by the National Oceanographic Partnership Program. DEEP SEARCH will spend four and a half years (from 2017 to 2021) researching the habitats of the US Atlantic to better understand the distribution of sensitive seafloor communities to inform potential offshore energy development and other deep-sea management needs.

Oceanography↗

USGS1999

Contribution of research to management and recovery of the roseate tern: review of a twelve-year project

The Northwest Atlantic population of the Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) is largely confined to a small breeding area along the northeast coast of the USA between 40? and 42?N. This population was listed as endangered in the USA in 1987 because it was dangerously concentrated into a few breeding sites (85% on two islands in the 1980s). The nesting population in the area from Long Island, New York to Cape Cod, Massachusetts has been studied intensively since 1987, in conjunction with a program of management of the breeding colonies. This paper summarizes the results of the research program and discusses the extent to which it has contributed to effective management. The regional population now numbers about 4,000 breeding pairs and has been increasing slowly since 1987, except between 1991 and 1992 when it declined by about 17%. This decline was probably caused by Hurricane `Bob' in August 1991. Roseate Terns have specialized foraging habits and are concentrated into a small number of foraging areas near the nesting colonies. The historically important breeding sites were taken over by large gulls between 1930 and 1972. Many of the terns moved to less suitable sites near the mainland, where they are subject to predation by mainland-based predators. Despite this, Roseate Terns breed with high success at many sites. The sex-ratio is skewed towards females; about 12% of nests are attended by female-female pairs. The annual adult survival rate (0.83) is unusually low for a seabird. Most mortality occurs away from the breeding grounds, but the winter quarters remained unknown until one roost site was found in Brazil in 1995-1997. A major management goal has been to restore former colony-sites by eliminating nesting gulls, but the success of some of these projects has been questionable because they may have attracted birds to sites with higher levels of predation. Although the research has yielded important information about the biology and demography of the species, it has taken longer than expected to obtain and analyze data from multiple sites on this long-lived species. Most work has been carried out at breeding sites: critical studies on feeding ecology and winter ecology have been hampered by insufficient funding and the paucity of self-motivated biologists. Hence, the program has not yet provided all the keys to restoring the population.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2009

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii’s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii↗

USGS1995

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2024

Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to Present

The riparian vegetation within the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter Reservation), within the Upper Gila River watershed extending from southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona, provides immense ecological and cultural value to the people of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter referred to as the Tribe/Tribal) but has experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century because of fluctuations in climate and a series of human-induced and natural disturbances. This research addresses these challenges by analyzing the riparian vegetation within the Upper Gila River watershed using aerial and satellite imagery, and by documenting the direct relationship to fluctuations in climate conditions. Results from this study would be provided to the Tribe to help the Tribe develop a restoration plan for their riparian forests. We show that the riparian vegetation has largely increased overall in greenness throughout the study period (i.e., 1985 through 2021), despite periods of drought conditions. This extends to the end of our study period particularly with native vegetation in the upper watershed. However, non-native and invasive tamarisk vegetation within much of the lower watershed has shown declining trends and increasing vegetative stress. Furthermore, these areas have experienced a large increase in wildfire presence and other disturbances. Nevertheless, Tribal restoration applications have been shown to increase native vegetation plant cover, suggesting that restoration activities have been successful overall.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2012

Bibliography of Dreissena polymorpha (zebra mussels) and Dreissena rostriformis Bugensis (QUAGGA mussels): 1989 to 2011

Dreissenid mussels invaded and colonized waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes during the late 1980s. Their colonization and resulting impact have been characterized as one of the most important ecological changes in freshwater systems in North America. The need for information on dreissenid mussels has grown during the past 2 decades, which has prompted the compilation of this bibliography. Two previous bibliographies of dreissenid mussels indicate average publication rates were 6 publications/year between 1771 and 1964 (1,180 in 194 y) and 30 publications/year between 1964 and 1993 (885 in 30 y). In the current bibliography, the average rate of publication doubled during the past 23 y (1989 to 2011) to 66 publications/year based on a total of 1,502 publications. These rates may be biased by increased numbers of researchers and journals over time but, at a minimum, these rates indicate continued interest and concern by humans about the impact of dreissenid mussels on water availability and the expanding range of dreissenids throughout the world. The current bibliography has a 94% efficiency rate for subject and 100% efficiency for title search criteria when compared with references in published studies of dreissenid mussels in 2011. In addition to publications, we included 206 student theses and 225 chapters in 26 books including 6 books devoted solely to dreissenid mussels. A vast majority of student theses were about dreissenid mussels in North America, especially in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The 6 books devoted to dreissenid mussels contained a variety of chapters that described biology, impact, control, and ecology of dreissenid mussels in both Europe (published in 1992 and 2010) and North America (1993, 1994, 1997, and 2000). In addition, there is a 7th book devoted solely to dreissenid mussels that is near completion.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

USGS2019

Coastal Salinity Index along the southeastern Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico, 1983 to 2018

Coastal droughts have a different dynamic than upland droughts, which are typically characterized by agricultural, hydrologic, meteorological, and (or) socioeconomic effects. Drought uniquely affects coastal ecosystems because of changes in the salinity conditions of estuarine creeks and rivers. The location of the freshwater-saltwater interface in surface-water bodies is an important factor in the ecological and socioeconomic dynamics of coastal communities. To address the data and information gap for characterizing coastal drought, the Coastal Salinity Index (CSI) was developed by using salinity data. The CSI uses a computational approach similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index. The CSI can be computed for unique time intervals (for example 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month intervals) to characterize short- and long-term drought (saline) conditions, as well as wet (high freshwater inflow) conditions. To encourage the use of the CSI in current and future research endeavors, this investigation addressed three activities to enhance the use and application of the CSI. First, a software package was developed for the consistent computation of the CSI that includes preprocessing of salinity data, filling missing data, computing the CSI, post-processing, and generating the supporting metadata. This software package is available for download from the U.S. Geological Survey GitLab repository. Second, the CSI has been computed at sites along the southeastern Atlantic coast (Florida to North Carolina) and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas to Florida) to increase the opportunity for linking the CSI to ecological response data. Third, using telemetered salinity data, the real-time computation of the CSI has been prototyped and disseminated on the web.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2019

Ecological effects of establishing a 40-year oasis protection system in a Northwestern China Desert

Aims: Desertification around oasis areas is a serious problem in semi-arid and arid regions, which is expected to continue into the future due to a rapidly increasing human population. Oasis protection systems are created to reverse desertification by recovering degraded soil and vegetation properties and improving ecosystem services. Most research has focused on the short-term effects of a single restoration practice using an individual vegetation or soil metric, while more complete assessments along a gradient of an entire oasis protection system have seldom been studied. In this study, soil and vegetation properties were measured along a 40-year oasis-protection system to assess the effectiveness of increasing land protection belts along a gradient from prohibiting grazing, to fencing shrubland, to establishing shrub- and tree-plantations in northwestern China. Methods: Three sites in each belt of the oasis-protection system were selected to measure soil texture, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, pH, electrical conductivity, and eight ions under the plant canopy and in the inter-canopy area, as well as to investigate plant community composition, diversity and productivity. Wind velocity and sand transportation rates were measured in each of the five belts during storm events. Results: Compared with shifting dunes in unprotected desert settings, the wind velocity and sand transportation rate decreased by 75 and 98%, respectively, when spring storms passed through the most protected plantation belts in the oasis system. Soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus significantly increased, along with the silt and clay contents, across the protection gradient, and reached their highest levels at the shrub- and tree-plantation belts. Similarly, the density, cover, and biomass of herbaceous plants also increased along the gradient. Despite these positive effects, there was a significant increase in soil salinity, sodicity, and desiccation at the shrub- and tree-plantation belts, which may negatively affect the future sustainability of the oasis-protection system under a predicted future drier and warming climate. Conclusions Although shrub and tree plantations improve soil fertility and favor the development of the herbaceous plant community, their environmental consequences (i.e., soil salinization and desiccation) need to be evaluated in the context of ecosystem restoration over the long-term, especially in arid regions.

Catena↗

USGS2013

Cold-seep habitat mapping: high-resolution spatial characterization of the Blake Ridge Diapir seep field

Relationships among seep community biomass, diversity, and physiographic controls such as underlying geology are not well understood. Previous efforts to constrain these relationships at the Blake Ridge Diapir were limited to observations from piloted deep-submergence vehicles. In August 2012, the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Sentry collected geophysical and photographic data over a 0.131 km2 area at the Blake Ridge Diapir seeps. A nested survey approach was used that began with a regional or reconnaissance-style survey using sub-bottom mapping systems to locate and identify seeps and underlying conduits. This survey was followed by AUV-mounted sidescan sonar and multibeam echosounder systems mapping on a mesoscale to characterize the seabed physiography. At the most detailed survey level, digital photographic imaging was used to resolve sub-meter characteristics of the biology. Four pockmarks (25–70 m diameter) were documented, each supporting chemosynthetic communities. Concentric zonation of mussels and clams suggests the influence of chemical gradients on megafaunal distribution. Data collection and analytical techniques used here yield high-resolution habitat maps that can serve as baselines to constrain temporal evolution of seafloor seeps, and to inform ecological niche modeling and resource management.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2026

Predatory impact of freshwater drum on dreissenid populations in western Lake Erie

Impacts of dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena spp.) on Great Lakes ecosystems are well documented, but the mechanisms driving variation in their abundance remain poorly understood. Dreissenid mussels have been incorporated into fish diets throughout the Great Lakes; however, studies quantifying the amount of dreissenid mussels consumed by fish predators are limited. To date, attention has mainly focused on invasive round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) predation of dreissenid mussels. Biomass of native molluscivores, namely the freshwater drum ( Aplodinotus grunniens ), may exceed round goby biomass by an order of magnitude in some areas. Thus, the role of predation on dreissenid mussel population dynamics may be greater than currently assumed. Here, we combine estimates of diet composition and fish biomass to estimate kg/ha of dreissenid mussels consumed by freshwater drum in the West Basin of Lake Erie. Annual consumption estimates of dreissenids by freshwater drum were large (averaging 23.79 kg/ha shell-free mass), and generally exceeded existing dreissenid consumption estimates for round goby. Our results support evaluation of ecological mechanisms, such as predation, to improve our knowledge of factors that may influence dreissenid mussel abundance.

western Lake Erie↗

USGS2013

Reorganization of vegetation, hydrology and soil carbon after permafrost degradation across heterogeneous boreal landscapes

The diversity of ecosystems across boreal landscapes, successional changes after disturbance and complicated permafrost histories, present enormous challenges for assessing how vegetation, water and soil carbon may respond to climate change in boreal regions. To address this complexity, we used a chronosequence approach to assess changes in vegetation composition, water storage and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks along successional gradients within four landscapes: (1) rocky uplands on ice-poor hillside colluvium, (2) silty uplands on extremely ice-rich loess, (3) gravelly–sandy lowlands on ice-poor eolian sand and (4) peaty–silty lowlands on thick ice-rich peat deposits over reworked lowland loess. In rocky uplands, after fire permafrost thawed rapidly due to low ice contents, soils became well drained and SOC stocks decreased slightly. In silty uplands, after fire permafrost persisted, soils remained saturated and SOC decreased slightly. In gravelly–sandy lowlands where permafrost persisted in drier forest soils, loss of deeper permafrost around lakes has allowed recent widespread drainage of lakes that has exposed limnic material with high SOC to aerobic decomposition. In peaty–silty lowlands, 2–4 m of thaw settlement led to fragmented drainage patterns in isolated thermokarst bogs and flooding of soils, and surface soils accumulated new bog peat. We were not able to detect SOC changes in deeper soils, however, due to high variability. Complicated soil stratigraphy revealed that permafrost has repeatedly aggraded and degraded in all landscapes during the Holocene, although in silty uplands only the upper permafrost was affected. Overall, permafrost thaw has led to the reorganization of vegetation, water storage and flow paths, and patterns of SOC accumulation. However, changes have occurred over different timescales among landscapes: over decades in rocky uplands and gravelly–sandy lowlands in response to fire and lake drainage, over decades to centuries in peaty–silty lowlands with a legacy of complicated Holocene changes, and over centuries in silty uplands where ice-rich soil and ecological recovery protect permafrost.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2024

Beaver dam analogs did not improve beaver translocation outcomes in a desert river

Stream restoration programs employ beaver-related restoration techniques, including beaver translocations and installation of beaver dam analogs (BDA), to create complex in-stream habitat. We investigated whether BDA installations improved the probability of translocated beavers surviving and colonizing a section of a degraded desert river. We translocated beavers fitted with tracking devices to the Price River, Utah, United States, for 2 years before and after BDAs were installed. We monitored survival and site fidelity of beavers to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), using model selection to evaluate models with BDA, flow, and other factors hypothesized to relate to apparent survival. We found similar apparent survival 8 weeks post-release of pre-BDA ( φ = 0.50 ± 0.08 SE) and post-BDA beavers ( φ = 0.41 ± 0.06 SE). There were 15 predator-caused mortalities and 39 beavers emigrated out of the study site. Top models indicated apparent survival was negatively related to mean flow. Of the 70 BDAs constructed, beaver activity was detected on only two structures and the number of intact natural dams decreased due to monsoon floods. Our results suggest BDAs may not improve survival and site fidelity of translocated beavers in desert river systems. Instead, the dynamic flow of desert rivers and negative relationship between flow and apparent survival suggest the timing of release may be an important consideration for successful beaver translocation. Additional research is needed to understand how habitat, food availability, individual behavior, and resident conspecifics influence beaver translocation success.

Utah↗

USGS2026

Relationship of satellite-derived fire severity to archaeological fire severity and fire effects in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, USA

Background Archaeological attributes important for determining cultural affiliation, site age, or artifact origin can be damaged or destroyed by wildfires. Satellite-derived fire severity products are used in post-fire rapid response to prioritize and guide stabilization and preservation activities, but their ability to predict archaeological fire impacts has not yet been tested. We compared the severity of fire from Burned Area Reflectance Classification (BARC) maps with ground-based observations of fire severity (“archaeological fire severity”) and archaeological impacts for 904 prehistoric or historic sites within three wildfires in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, U.S. Results from this unique study inform archaeological preservation in the context of wildfires and fire management. Results We found a statistically significant, moderately strong association between BARC and archaeological fire severity and a high likelihood that sites with a low BARC fire severity also had a low archaeological fire severity designation. Sites of moderate or high BARC severity were less likely to have a matching severity classification in post-fire assessments, and BARC maps tended to identify as unburned areas where archaeologists determined that sites were burned at low severity. Wildfire of any severity resulted in measurable impacts to archaeological architecture, features, or artifacts at some sites, with increasing proportion of sites impacted at moderate versus low BARC severity, but fire impacts were also observed at sites classified by BARC as unburned. Conclusions Generally, BARC maps provide good assessment of the severity of fire and its effects on archaeological resources, particularly for areas burned at low severity. In areas of moderate or high fire severity, BARC maps may not consistently identify sites with a high need for assessment, and archaeological fire effects can also be present at sites classified by BARC as unburned. Adoption of standardized post-fire archaeological assessments across wildfires and regions, exploration of alternative fire mapping products, and continued research on the fire environments that produce archaeological fire effects can enhance archaeological preservation and post-fire response.

New Mexico↗