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Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California

Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast; scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

California↗

Simulation of groundwater flow in the aquifer system of the Anacostia River and surrounding watersheds, Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the District Department of Energy & Environment, Water Quality Division, is investigating the hydrogeology of the tidal Anacostia River watershed within Washington, D.C., with the goal of improving understanding of the groundwater-flow system and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the watershed. To help meet this goal, a three-dimensional steady-state groundwater-flow model for the Anacostia River and surrounding watersheds in Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia was constructed. The goal of the modeling study was to quantify the rate and pattern of groundwater flow to the tidal Anacostia River. The model domain includes weathered and unweathered rocks of the Piedmont Physiographic Province and the southeast-dipping sediments of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Physiographic Province. The model includes processes of recharge, evapotranspiration, withdrawals from wells, and base flow to streams, rivers, and tidal waters. Final model calibration was achieved by using the objective parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis capabilities of UCODE_2005. Simulated gradients in the surficial aquifer in the vicinity of the tidal Anacostia River indicate that flow is predominantly toward the river, with changes in the magnitude and direction of the gradients from the northeast, where the Anacostia River enters Washington, D.C., to the southwest, toward the confluence with the tidal Potomac River. Flow paths to the tidal Anacostia River from the north are largely horizontal through the surficial aquifer and Patuxent aquifer. From the south, the flow paths toward the river originate in the elevated topographic areas southeast of the river and pass through the surficial aquifer and Patapsco confining unit, lower Patapsco aquifer/Arundel Clay, and to some extent, the Patuxent aquifer. Groundwater-flow rates to and from the tidal rivers (Potomac and Anacostia) are generally greatest near the land-water boundary, where the gradient in the water table is greatest, and diminish toward the middle of the tidal river channels. The tidal rivers are predominantly areas of groundwater discharge, although there are areas where tidal waters are recharging the subsurface, typically where small variations or depressions in the topography produce small locally reversed gradients in the water table. Substantial recharge of tidal waters to the groundwater system is observed for the tidal Potomac where the upper Patapsco aquifer subcrops south of Washington, D.C. Water budget calculations indicate that inflows to the groundwater system beneath the tidal Anacostia River are predominantly from the land area of Washington, D.C., followed by tidal surface water and flows from lower layers. Outflows are largely to the tidal Anacostia River, with a smaller part going to the land area underlying Washington, D.C.

Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C.↗

Gravity and magnetic surveys of the Skaergaard intrusion, East Greenland

Aeromagnetic and gravity surveys of the Skaergaard intrusion in East Greenland were carried out in July–August 1971 as part of a grant to the University of Oregon Center for Volcanology to refine the models of crystallization and differentiation of the intrusion, specifically to test whether the intrusion is underlain by dense rocks of a reservoir 20 kilometers (km) thick (referred to as a “hidden zone”). The Skaergaard intrusion is a source of platinum group elements that are critical mineral resources for many technologies, and because no new data have been collected these legacy datasets remain a valuable asset. The total-intensity aeromagnetic survey was flown in early July 1971 with a proton precession magnetometer at a constant barometric altitude of 1.5 km (5,000 feet) with a nominal line spacing of 1 km. Two gravimeters were used to acquire 168 stations of which 86 were at known altitudes (mainly sea level) and 82 had altitudes measured by altimetry in late July–August 1971. Finally, a north-south ground vertical-intensity magnetic traverse was completed across the intrusion together with collection of oriented hand specimens. The hand specimens were measured for remnant magnetization and density, along with density measurements of more specimens collected by expedition geologists for other purposes. The intrusion is composed of layered gabbro with extensive crystal fractionation that is dense and strongly reversely polarized. After terrain correction and standard Bouguer gravity reduction, the gravity anomaly dataset was corrected for all rock above sea level using the density measurements of the various zones of the intrusion and the topographic and geologic maps (variable density Bouguer gravity reduction). A large regional gradient in the gravity anomaly data was removed using orthogonal polynomial fitting to the gridded data. The zonal volumes of rock below sea level were calculated from the dipping polygonal layer gravity model of the intrusion below sea level and combined with elliptic cross–section cylinders for the various zones above sea level to approximate the original zonal volumes of the intrusion. The residual gravity anomaly of 18–20 milligals (mGal) was only about half of the expected anomaly if a large hidden zone proposed from petrologic considerations were present, and both two-dimensional and three-dimensional models imply that the exposed series of intrusion zones explain the gravity anomaly by their down-dip extension below sea level together with a small hidden-zone volume. A three-dimensional model of the exposed rocks and their down-dip extension below sea level also can account for the aeromagnetic anomaly with little or no requirement for hidden-zone rock. The middle and upper zone units of the intrusion contain the most magnetite and account for most of the aeromagnetic anomaly.

Skaergaard intrusion↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in Alabama

Streamflow data and statistics are vitally important for proper protection and management of the water quality and water quantity of Alabama streams. Such data and statistics are generally available at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, also referred to as streamgages or stations, but are often needed at ungaged stream locations. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with numerous Alabama State agencies and organizations, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in Alabama that are not substantially affected by tides, regulation, diversions, or other anthropogenic influences. A small percentage of the streamgages included in this study experience zero flows during certain periods; thus, the final low-flow frequency regression equations were developed by using weighted left-censored regression analyses to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on number of years of record. The equations developed include the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with a 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as the 1Q10 and 7Q10 flows), the annual minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 2-year recurrence interval (referred to as the 7Q2 flow), and the mean annual flow using data from 174 streamgages from Alabama and surrounding States. For the 1Q10, 7Q2, and 7Q10 low-flow frequency statistics, the regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, streamflow-variability index, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of the drainage basin located in the Piedmont and Southeastern Plains ecoregions. The mean annual flow regression equation is a function of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of the drainage basin located in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion. For the mean annual flow regression equation, the average standard error of estimate was 11.2 percent. For the selected low-flow frequency equations, the average standard errors of estimate ranged from 18.1 to 38.8 percent. The regional regression equations developed from this investigation have been incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application for Alabama. StreamStats ( https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ ) is a web-based geographic information system application that delineates drainage basins at selected stream locations and then generates the needed basin characteristics for available regional regression equations. Along with the low-flow frequency equations developed in this investigation, the StreamStats application also has regional regression equations for estimating flood-frequency statistics at locations on rural and urban streams in Alabama.

Alabama↗

Conflict minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo: global tantalum processing plants, a critical part of the tantalum supply chain

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzes mineral and metal supply chains to identify and describe major components of mineral and metal material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. Supply chain analyses may be used (1) to identify risks to the United States associated with the supply of critical and strategic minerals and metals and (2) to provide greater supply chain transparency so that policymakers have the fact-based information needed to formulate public policy. This fact sheet focuses on the post-mining/pre-consumer-product part of the tantalum supply chain. The USGS National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) has been asked by governmental and non-governmental organizations to provide information about tantalum, tin, tungsten, and gold (collectively known as “3TG minerals”) processing facilities worldwide in response to U.S. legislation aimed at identifying and removing the supply chain links between the trade in these minerals and civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjacent countries. Post-beneficiation processing plants (generally called smelters and refineries) for 3TG mineral ores and concentrates were identified by company and industry association representatives as being the link in the 3TG mineral supply chain through which these minerals can be traced to their source of origin (mine). The determination of the source of origin is critical to the development of a complete and transparent conflict-free mineral supply chain. Tungsten processing plants were the subject of the first fact sheet in this series published by USGS NMIC in August 2014. Background information about historical conditions and multinational stakeholders’ voluntary due diligence guidance for minerals from conflict-affected and high-risk areas is presented in the tungsten fact sheet. This fact sheet, the second in a series about 3TG minerals, focuses on the tantalum supply chain by listing selected processors that produced tantalum materials commercially worldwide during 2013–14. It does not provide any information regarding the sources of material processed in these facilities.

Fact Sheet↗

Selenium in ecosystems within the mountaintop coal mining and valley-fill region of southern West Virginia-assessment and ecosystem-scale modeling

Coal and associated waste rock are among environmental selenium (Se) sources that have the potential to affect reproduction in fish and aquatic birds. Ecosystems of southern West Virginia that are affected by drainage from mountaintop coal mines and valleys filled with waste rock in the Coal, Gauley, and Lower Guyandotte watersheds were assessed during 2010 and 2011. Sampling data from earlier studies in these watersheds (for example, Upper Mud River Reservoir) and other mining-affected watersheds also are included to assess additional hydrologic settings and food webs for comparison. Basin schematics give a comprehensive view of sampled species and Se concentration data specific to location and date. Food-web diagrams document the progression of Se trophic transfer across suspended particulate material, invertebrates, and fish for each site to serve as the basis for developing an ecosystem-scale model to predict Se exposure within the hydrologic conditions and food webs of southern West Virginia. This approach integrates a site-specific predator’s dietary exposure pathway into modeling to ensure an adequate link to Se toxicity and, thus, to species vulnerability. Site-specific fish abundance and richness data in streams documented various species of chub, shiner, dace, darters, bass, minnow, sunfish, sucker, catfish, and central stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum), mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii), and least brook lamprey (Lampetra aepyptera). However, Se assessment species for streams, and hence, model species for streams, were limited to creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and central stoneroller. Both of these species of fish are generally considered to have a high tolerance for environmental stress based on traditional comparative fish community assessment, with creek chub being present at all sites. Aquatic insects (mayfly, caddisfly, stonefly, dobsonfly, chironomid) were the main invertebrates sampled in streams. Collection of suspended particulate material acted as an integrator of organic-rich, fine-grained biomass present in streams. The base-case food web modeled for streams was suspended particulate material to aquatic insect to creek chub, with comparative modeling of a direct particulate-to-stoneroller food web. Model species for a reservoir setting were based on an earlier study of bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Several reservoir food webs were considered based on a variety of invertebrates (insect, snail, clam). For stream and reservoir settings, predicted Se concentrations in exposure scenarios showed a high degree of correlation (r 2 = 0.91 for invertebrates and 0.75 for fish) with field observations of Se concentrations when modeling was initiated from suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations and model transfer parameters defined previously in the literature were used. These strong correlations validate the derived site-specific model and establish sufficient confidence that the predictions from the developed model can be quantitatively applied to the ecosystems in southern West Virginia. An application of modeling used a metric describing the partitioning of Se between particulate material and dissolved phases (K d ) to allow determination of a dissolved Se concentration that would be necessary to attain a site-specific Se fish body burden. The operationally defined K d quantifies the complex process of transformation at the base of a food web on a site-specific basis. The magnitude of this metric is known to vary with such factors as Se speciation, particulate-material type, and hydrology. This application (1) ties dissolved Se concentrations to fish tissue concentrations; (2) allows consideration of different choices for intervening site-specific exposure steps that set Se bioaccumulation, partitioning, and bioavailability; and (3) generates implications for management decisions that define protection through different regulatory pathways and guidelines. The range of model outcomes accounts for critical sources of variability and establishes whether site and food-web characterization were adequate to represent the dynamics of the system with certainty. This is especially true in terms of particulate-material phases at the base of the food web and utilization of K d in different hydrologic settings. For streams, a range of field-derived K d ds were applied to food-web exposure scenarios within a framework of locational and hydrologic variables (area of stream basin; stream gradient and discharge) that may affect the magnitude of K d . Overlaying even a coarse temporal scale that acknowledges variability in stream dissolved Se and Se speciation, such as through seasonal derivation of K d , can substantially narrow model uncertainty. Modeling that constrains the place and time of greatest ecosystem Se sensitivity within a specified food web gives insight into Se risk and identifies controlling management alternatives within a watershed or stream basin. If there is a range of hydrologic settings, specificity is needed to establish a hierarchy of in-stream and off-stream habitats for a watershed approach that takes into account Se-enriched water moving through different K d and food web environments. If there is a range of predator vulnerabilities (measured as a combination of food-web Se biodynamics and response in Se toxicity tests) within the site-specific community of fish species to be protected, then choice of fish species is critical to protection because it determines the food web and, hence, the magnitude of biotransfer through which Se is modeled. Whether creek chub is representative of the vulnerability to Se of all fish species encountered within the study-site ecosystems will require additional species-specific data and analysis. A range of site-specific scenarios illustrated here set model outcomes, but the final quantitative evaluation of alternatives and their implications will be those generated through choices and guidance formulated by state and other agencies in their decisionmaking processes. Proposed additions and refinements to the ecosystem-scale site-specific approach developed here include consideration of: measurement of temporally matched pairs of dissolved and suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations across a broader range of stream sites to expand the stream K d database and to test the representativeness of a suspended-particulate-material sample within a stream; characterization of different phases of particulate material across seasons to better define the base of the food web and connect to invertebrate feeding; refinement of model assumptions concerning dietary preferences and composition for fish to develop additional trophic transfer factors (TTFs) (for example, calculation of TTFinvertebrate composite for mixed diets); expansion of modeling of fish species and their food webs to include Se-vulnerable species; temporal characterization of a predator’s life cycle and habitat use as additional model layers to integrate with Se biodynamics in streams; investigation of the effect of stream gradient on K d based on a finer scale than presented here in terms of such variables as residence time, watershed dilution, and physical habitat attributes (for example, amount of ponding versus run or riffle within a stream); and linkage to discharge through use of stream gaging to record variability and enable model organization within water-year types and discharge seasons. Investigating the presence and variability of prey and predator species in demographically open systems such as streams also is key to model outcomes given the overall environmental stressors (for example, general landscape change, food-web disruption, recolonization potential) imposed on the composition of biological communities in coal mining and valley-fill affected watersheds

West Virginia↗

Simulation of regional groundwater flow and advective transport of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst and vicinity, New Jersey, 2018

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was developed and calibrated for the unconsolidated New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers underlying Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst (JBMDL) and vicinity, New Jersey, to evaluate groundwater flow pathways of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination associated with use of aqueous film forming foam (AFFF) at the base. The regional subsurface flow model spans an area of approximately 518 square miles around JBMDL and is based on a previously developed hydrogeologic framework of the area. Steady-state flow in the unconsolidated aquifers was simulated using the MODFLOW 6 groundwater flow model, which is able to account for hydrostratigraphic pinchouts and discontinuities in the Coastal Plain aquifers underlying JBMDL. To account for local patterns of fluid flow driving advective subsurface migration of PFAS, the grid was refined using quadtree meshes spanning 21 areas where historical AFFF use was identified, five off-site reconnaissance areas identified by AFCEC as areas in which the occurrence of PFAS is most likely to pose a potential danger to local drinking water supplies, and along streams that behave as drains in the base-flow-dominated Coastal Plain. Following grid refinement, four physical processes known to govern subsurface flow were introduced to the model. These included effective precipitation recharge, discharge to streams and stream-connected wetlands, regional inflows and outflows along the model bottom, and withdrawals from wells, each of which were incorporated into the model as either external or internal boundary conditions. To account for effective precipitation recharge, a specified-flow boundary was assigned along the top of the model. Similarly, regional flows predicted using the modified U.S Geological Survey’s New Jersey Coastal Plain Regional Aquifer System Analysis model were treated as specified-flow boundary conditions along the bottom of the model. Base-flow losses were treated as drains along streams delineated using a 10-foot LiDAR dataset. Drains were also assigned to cells falling within stream-connected National Hydrologic Database wetlands. Finally, well-pumpage data mined from the New Jersey Water Transfer database were added to the model to account for extraction of groundwater through pumping from industrial-supply and drinking-water-supply wells. Along model edges established at groundwater divides, where the net flux of water across the boundary is equal to zero, natural no-flow boundary conditions were imposed. The refined flow model was calibrated using the parameter-estimation (PEST) program, which adjusts model parameters by performing a gradient search over the sum-of-squared-error objective function until the parameter set that produces simulated water levels and base flows most closely matches 544 water levels and 20 estimated base flows and closely adheres to initial parameter estimates. Based on the analysis of calibration residuals, the model did not appear to be affected by significant model structural error. The MODPATH particle-tracking algorithm was used to estimate advective transport paths of PFAS in the vicinity of JBMDL. Forward tracking was used to determine paths of PFAS away from AFFF source areas to streams, wetlands, pumping wells, and geographic areas that PFAS may contaminate. Additionally, reverse tracking was used to determine particle pathlines away from off-site PFAS reconnaissance areas, or areas within which all sources of PFAS might be advectively transported into subsurface drinking-water supplies, to locations at land surface that may indicate a source of PFAS. The coupled and calibrated groundwater flow and particle-tracking transport model provide valuable tools for predicting the relative extent of PFAS contamination from onsite legacy source areas. The calibrated model also provides measures of water-level and base-flow observation influence that can help guide future data-collection efforts related to groundwater and surface water sampling for PFAS.

New Jersey↗

Groundwater flow, quality (2007-10), and mixing in the Wind Cave National Park area, South Dakota

A study of groundwater flow, quality, and mixing in relation to Wind Cave National Park in western South Dakota was conducted during 2007-11 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service because of water-quality concerns and to determine possible sources of groundwater contamination in the Wind Cave National Park area. A large area surrounding Wind Cave National Park was included in this study because to understand groundwater in the park, a general understanding of groundwater in the surrounding southern Black Hills is necessary. Three aquifers are of particular importance for this purpose: the Minnelusa, Madison, and Precambrian aquifers. Multivariate methods applied to hydrochemical data, consisting of principal component analysis (PCA), cluster analysis, and an end-member mixing model, were applied to characterize groundwater flow and mixing. This provided a way to assess characteristics important for groundwater quality, including the differentiation of hydrogeologic domains within the study area, sources of groundwater to these domains, and groundwater mixing within these domains. Groundwater and surface-water samples collected for this study were analyzed for common ions (calcium, magnesium, sodium, bicarbonate, chloride, silica, and sulfate), arsenic, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, specific conductance, and pH. These 12 variables were used in all multivariate methods. A total of 100 samples were collected from 60 sites from 2007 to 2010 and included stream sinks, cave drip, cave water bodies, springs, and wells. In previous approaches that combined PCA with end-member mixing, extreme-value samples identified by PCA typically were assumed to represent end members. In this study, end members were not assumed to have been sampled but rather were estimated and constrained by prior hydrologic knowledge. Also, the end-member mixing model was quantified in relation to hydrogeologic domains, which focuses model results on major hydrologic processes. Finally, conservative tracers were weighted preferentially in model calibration, which distributed model errors of optimized values, or residuals, more appropriately than would otherwise be the case The latter item also provides an estimate of the relative effect of geochemical evolution along flow paths in comparison to mixing. The end-member mixing model estimated that Wind Cave sites received 38 percent of their groundwater inflow from local surface recharge, 34 percent from the upgradient Precambrian aquifer, 26 percent from surface recharge to the west, and 2 percent from regional flow. Artesian springs primarily received water from end members assumed to represent regional groundwater flow. Groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons, dissolved gasses (argon, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen, and oxygen), and tritium at selected sites and used to estimate groundwater age. Apparent ages, or model ages, for the Madison aquifer in the study area indicate that groundwater closest to surface recharge areas is youngest, with increasing age in a downgradient direction toward deeper parts of the aquifer. Arsenic concentrations in samples collected for this study ranged from 0.28 to 37.1 micrograms per liter (μg/L) with a median value of 6.4 μg/L, and 32 percent of these exceeded 10 μg/L. The highest arsenic concentrations in and near the study area are approximately coincident with the outcrop of the Minnelusa Formation and likely originated from arsenic in shale layers in this formation. Sample concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite were less than 2 milligrams per liter for 92 percent of samples collected, which is not a concern for drinking-water quality. Water samples were collected in the park and analyzed for five trace metals (chromium, copper, lithium, vanadium, and zinc), the concentrations of which did not correlate with arsenic. Dye tracing indicated hydraulic connection between three water bodies in Wind Cave.

South Dakota↗

Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

Many State and Federal agencies use information regarding the locations of streams having intermittent or perennial flow when making management and regulatory decisions. For example, the application of some Idaho water quality standards depends on whether streams are intermittent. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 ft3/s. However, there is a general recognition that the cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not as accurate or consistent as desirable from one map to another, which makes broad management and regulatory assessments difficult and inconsistent. To help resolve this problem, the USGS has developed a methodology for predicting the locations of perennial streams based on regional generalized least-squares (GLS) regression equations for Idaho streams for the 7Q2 low-flow statistic. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams in most areas in Idaho. The use of these equations in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along stream reaches. The USGS has developed a GIS-based map of the locations of streams in Idaho with perennial flow based on a 7Q2 of 0.1 ft3/s and a transition zone of plus or minus 1 standard error. Idaho State cooperators plan to use this information to make regulatory and water-quality management decisions. Originally, 7Q2 equations were developed for eight regions of similar hydrologic characteristics in the study area, using long-term data from 234 streamflow-gaging stations. Equations in five of the regions were revised based on spatial patterns observed in the initial perennial streams map and unrealistic behavior of the equations in extrapolation. The standard errors of prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

We present data on 136 high-frequency earthquakes and swarms, termed volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity, which preceded 111 eruptions at 83 volcanoes, plus data on VT swarms that preceded intrusions at 21 other volcanoes. We find that VT seismicity is usually the earliest reported seismic precursor for eruptions at volcanoes that have been dormant for decades or more, and precedes eruptions of all magma types from basaltic to rhyolitic and all explosivities from VEI 0 to ultraplinian VEI 6 at such previously long-dormant volcanoes. Because large eruptions occur most commonly during resumption of activity at long-dormant volcanoes, VT seismicity is an important precursor for the Earth's most dangerous eruptions. VT seismicity precedes all explosive eruptions of VEI ≥ 5 and most if not all VEI 4 eruptions in our data set. Surprisingly we find that the VT seismicity originates at distal locations on tectonic fault structures at distances of one or two to tens of kilometers laterally from the site of the eventual eruption, and rarely if ever starts beneath the eruption site itself. The distal VT swarms generally occur at depths almost equal to the horizontal distance of the swarm from the summit out to about 15 km distance, beyond which hypocenter depths level out. We summarize several important characteristics of this distal VT seismicity including: swarm-like nature, onset days to years prior to the beginning of magmatic eruptions, peaking of activity at the time of the initial eruption whether phreatic or magmatic, and large non-double couple component to focal mechanisms. Most importantly we show that the intruded magma volume can be simply estimated from the cumulative seismic moment of the VT seismicity from: Log10 V = 0.77 Log ΣMoment − 5.32, with volume, V, in cubic meters and seismic moment in Newton meters. Because the cumulative seismic moment can be approximated from the size of just the few largest events, and is quite insensitive to precise locations, the intruded magma volume can be quickly and easily estimated with few short-period seismic stations. Notable cases in which distal VT events preceded eruptions at long-dormant volcanoes include: Nevado del Ruiz (1984–1985), Pinatubo (1991), Unzen (1989–1995), Soufriere Hills (1995), Shishaldin (1989–1999), Tacana' (1985–1986), Pacaya (1980–1984), Rabaul (1994), and Cotopaxi (2001). Additional cases are recognized at frequently active volcanoes including Popocateptl (2001–2003) and Mauna Loa (1984). We present four case studies (Pinatubo, Soufriere Hills, Unzen, and Tacana') in which we demonstrate the above mentioned VT characteristics prior to eruptions. Using regional data recorded by NEIC, we recognized in near-real time that a huge distal VT swarm was occurring, deduced that a proportionately huge magmatic intrusion was taking place beneath the long dormant Sulu Range, New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea, that it was likely to lead to eruptive activity, and warned Rabaul Volcano Observatory days before a phreatic eruption occurred. This confirms the value of this technique for eruption forecasting. We also present a counter-example where we deduced that a VT swarm at Volcan Cosiguina, Nicaragua, indicated a small intrusion, insufficient to reach the surface and erupt. Finally, we discuss limitations of the method and propose a mechanism by which this distal VT seismicity is triggered by magmatic intrusion.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects. Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [ Q u ]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m 3 s -1 km -2 ]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [ R 2 ]=0.69) between Q u and the rainfall intensity ( I Tc , computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Q u =0.26( I Tc -8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an area-averaged peak runoff coefficient for the September 2013 rain storms in Boulder County, and the 8.6 millimeters per hour to be the rainfall intensity corresponding to a soil moisture threshold that controls the soil infiltration rate. Peak discharge estimates based on the sediment transport effects were generally less than the ensemble average and indicated that sediment transport may be a mechanism that limits velocities in these types of mountain streams such that the Froude number fluctuates about 1 suggesting that this type of floodflow can be approximated as critical flow.

Colorado↗

Conflict minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo—Tin processing plants, a critical part of the tin supply chain

Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzes mineral and metal supply chains to identify and describe major components of material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. Supply chain analyses may be used (1) to identify risks to the United States associated with the supply of critical and strategic minerals and metals and (2) to provide greater supply chain transparency so that policymakers have the fact-based information needed to formulate public policy. This fact sheet focuses on the post-mining/pre-consumer-product part of the tin supply chain. The USGS National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) has been asked by governmental and non-governmental organizations to provide information about tantalum, tin, tungsten, and gold (collectively known as “3TG minerals”) processing facilities worldwide in response to U.S. legislation aimed at identifying and removing the supply chain links between the trade in these minerals and civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and adjacent countries. Post-beneficiation processing plants (generally called smelters and refineries) for 3TG mineral ores and concentrates were identified by company and industry association representatives as being a link in the 3TG mineral supply chain through which these minerals can be traced to their source of origin (mine). The determination of the source of origin is critical to the development of a complete and transparent conflict-free mineral supply chain. Tungsten processing plants were the subject of the first fact sheet in this series published by the USGS NMIC in August 2014. Background information about historical conditions and multinational stakeholders’ voluntary due diligence guidance for minerals from conflict-affected and high-risk areas was presented in the tungsten fact sheet. Tantalum processing plants were the subject of the second fact sheet in this series published by the USGS NMIC in December 2014. This fact sheet, the third in the series about 3TG minerals, focuses on the tin supply chain by listing selected processors that produced tin materials commercially worldwide during 2013–14. It does not provide any information regarding the sources of the material processed in these facilities.

Fact Sheet↗

Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP): User guide for the Gulf Coast Monitoring and Assessment Portal

The Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act (RESTORE Act Final Rule at 31 C.F.R. Part 34) was signed into law on July 6, 2012. The RESTORE Act calls for a regional approach to restoring the long-term health of the valuable natural ecosystem and economy of the Gulf Coast region. The RESTORE Act dedicates 80 percent of civil and administrative penalties paid under the Clean Water Act, after the date of enactment, by the responsible parties in connection with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to the Gulf Coast Restoration Trust Fund (Trust Fund) for ecosystem restoration, economic recovery, and tourism promotion in the Gulf Coast region. In addition to creating the Trust Fund, the RESTORE Act established the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council (RESTORE Council or Council). The Council includes the Governors of the states of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, the Secretaries of the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, the Army, Commerce, Homeland Security, and the Interior, and the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Council plays a key role in developing strategies and implementing projects that help ensure the Gulf of Mexico’s natural resources are sustainable and available for future generations. The Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP) was approved as a Gulf-wide investment by the Council in the 2015 Initial Funded Priorities List and is administered jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Funded activities include the organization of basic, foundational components for a Gulf-wide monitoring network to measure the efficacy of investments in Gulf restoration by the Council. The program, in coordination with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and through collaboration with the Gulf States, federal and local partners, academia, non-governmental organizations, and business and industry, has leveraged existing resources, capacities, and expertise and built on existing monitoring programs and their data.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

Completion summary for borehole USGS 136 near the Advanced Test Reactor Complex, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, cored and completed borehole USGS 136 for stratigraphic framework analyses and long-term groundwater monitoring of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory. The borehole was initially cored to a depth of 1,048 feet (ft) below land surface (BLS) to collect core, open-borehole water samples, and geophysical data. After these data were collected, borehole USGS 136 was cemented and backfilled between 560 and 1,048 ft BLS. The final construction of borehole USGS 136 required that the borehole be reamed to allow for installation of 6-inch (in.) diameter carbon-steel casing and 5-in. diameter stainless-steel screen; the screened monitoring interval was completed between 500 and 551 ft BLS. A dedicated pump and water-level access line were placed to allow for aquifer testing, for collecting periodic water samples, and for measuring water levels. Geophysical and borehole video logs were collected after coring and after the completion of the monitor well. Geophysical logs were examined in conjunction with the borehole core to describe borehole lithology and to identify primary flow paths for groundwater, which occur in intervals of fractured and vesicular basalt. A single-well aquifer test was used to define hydraulic characteristics for borehole USGS 136 in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. Specific-capacity, transmissivity, and hydraulic conductivity from the aquifer test were at least 975 gallons per minute per foot, 1.4 × 10 5 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), and 254 feet per day, respectively. The amount of measureable drawdown during the aquifer test was about 0.02 ft. The transmissivity for borehole USGS 136 was in the range of values determined from previous aquifer tests conducted in other wells near the Advanced Test Reactor Complex: 9.5 × 10 3 to 1.9 × 10 5 ft 2 /d. Water samples were analyzed for cations, anions, metals, nutrients, total organic carbon, volatile organic compounds, stable isotopes, and radionuclides. Water samples from borehole USGS 136 indicated that concentrations of tritium, sulfate, and chromium were affected by wastewater disposal practices at the Advanced Test Reactor Complex. Depth-discrete groundwater samples were collected in the open borehole USGS 136 near 965, 710, and 573 ft BLS using a thief sampler; on the basis of selected constituents, deeper groundwater samples showed no influence from wastewater disposal at the Advanced Test Reactor Complex.

Idaho↗

Local to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients

Given the potential effect of invasive plants and animals to water fluxes through forests, the invasive-driven degradation of native ecosystems is a topic of great concern for many downstream land and water managers. The infiltration rate determines the partitioning between runoff and infiltration into soil in Hawaiian forests and beyond. Thus, to explore the ecohydrological effects of plant and animal invasion in mesic and wet forests in Hawaii, we measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest sites along moisture and substrate age gradients across the islands of Hawai‘i and Kaua‘i. We also characterized forest composition and structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Infiltration capacity is highly variable across forested sites and the wider landscape. Much of this variability is determined by a complex set of soil, vegetation, and disturbance factors that affect infiltration capacity at the immediate surrounding of measurement plots. Consequently, the effect of any given factor can be masked by variability in other factors. However, by controlling for variability in soil and vegetation conditions at a local plot level, we found that the presence of invasive species in forests has complex and sometimes non-intuitive effects on infiltration. Our final models showed that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, because several soil characteristics known to be affected by ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates (e.g., soil organic matter, bare soil cover, soil depth), the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in Hawaiian forests may be higher than effects observed in this study. These results provide clear evidence for land managers that ungulate control efforts likely improve ecohydrologic function to mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge. Compared to ungulate effects, the effect of invasive plants on water infiltration capacity in Hawaiian forests appeared much more complex. In general, elements of forest structure including increased canopy, understory and floor cover, greater presence of large roots, and lower grass and bare soil covers were positively associated with water infiltration. Whether native or not, a plant species’ potential to alter infiltration rates in Hawaiian forests was likely to depend on its physiognomy and how it affects forest community structure. For instance, while the cover of native dominant tree ‘ōhi‘a, Metrosideros polymorpha, was found to be positively associated with infiltration capacity (perhaps as an indicator of overall forest integrity), invasive Himalayan ginger, Hedychium gardnerianum, was also positively correlated with infiltration capacity, possibly due to preferential flow channels created by the presence of large root mats. Few studies have conducted comprehensive integrated ecological and hydrological sampling in forests of high conservation value. While we show there are large benefits to understanding how conservation efforts may help shape water fluxes, we also found that the commonly used study design for infiltration studies used here and elsewhere (i.e., adjacent paired sites) could be modified to provide more accurate effects of invasion in future studies for ecosystems in Hawaii and beyond.

Hawaii↗

Remediation scenarios for attenuating peak flows and reducing sediment transport in Fountain Creek, Colorado, 2013

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Fountain Creek Watershed, Flood Control and Greenway District assessed remediation scenarios to attenuate peak flows and reduce sediment loads in the Fountain Creek watershed. To evaluate these strategies, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) hydrologic and hydraulic models were employed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) version 3.5 was used to simulate runoff in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, associated with storms of varying magnitude and duration. Rain-gage precipitation data and radar-based precipitation data from the April 28–30, 1999, and September 14–15, 2011, storm events were used in the calibration process for the HEC-HMS model. The curve number and lag time for each subwatershed and Manning's roughness coefficients for each channel reach were adjusted within an acceptable range so that the simulated and measured streamflow hydrographs for each of the 12 USGS streamgages approximated each other. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS (River Analysis System) versions 4.1 and 4.2 were used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport, respectively, for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a particular storm event. Data from 15 USGS streamgages were used for model calibration and 7 of those USGS streamgages were used for model validation. The calibration process consisted of comparing the simulated water-surface elevations and the cross-section-averaged velocities from the model with those surveyed in the field at the cross section at the corresponding 15 and 7 streamgages, respectively. The final Manning’s roughness coefficients were adjusted between –30 and 30 percent at the 15 calibration streamgages from the original left, right, and channel-averaged Manning's roughness coefficients upon completion of calibration. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS version 4.2 was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a design-storm event. The Laursen-Copeland sediment-transport function was used in conjunction with the Exner 5 sorting method and the Ruby fall-velocity method to predict sediment transport. Six USGS streamgages equipped with suspended-sediment samplers were used to develop sediment-flow rating curves for the sediment-transport-model calibration. The critical Shields number in the Laursen-Copeland sediment-transport function and the volume of sediment available at a given cross section were adjusted during the HEC-RAS sediment-model calibration process. HEC-RAS model simulations used to evaluate the 14 remediation scenarios were based on unsteady-state streamflows associated with a 24-hour, 1-percent annual exceedance probability (100-year) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Type II precipitation event. Scenario 0 represents the baseline or current conditions in the watershed and was used to compare the remaining 13 scenarios. Scenarios 1–8 and 12 rely on side-detention facilities to reduce peak flows and sediment transport. Scenario 9 has a diversion channel, and scenario 10 has a reservoir. Scenarios 11 and 13 incorporate channel armoring and channel widening, respectively. Scenarios 8 and 10, the scenario with the most side-detention facilities, and the scenario with the reservoir, respectively, were the most effective at reducing sediment transport and peak flow at the Pueblo, Colorado, streamgage. Scenarios 8 and 10 altered the peak flow by –58.9 and –56.4 percent, respectively. In turn, scenarios 8 and 10 altered the sediment transport by –17.7 and –62.1 percent, respectively.

Colorado↗

Toward a four-dimensional petrogenetic model of a distributed volcanic field on the southern edge of the Colorado Plateau

A detailed characterization of the >3,000 square kilometer (km 2 ) Springerville volcanic field, located on the southern tip of the Colorado Plateau in Arizona, United States, with its more than 501 volcanic units and widely distributed >420 cinder cones and lava flows, provides constraints toward an integrated petrogenetic model for the field. Large-volume effusive tholeiitic eruptions at 2–1.5 mega-annum (Ma) transitioned to more numerous, smaller volume alkali olivine basalt (AOB) events at 1.5–1.0 Ma, with increasing abundances of evolved alkalic rocks (EARs), and a final 1.0–0.3 Ma period dominated by smaller volume, more explosive alkalic eruptions. Early large-scale melting in a relatively enriched lithospheric mantle (EM) source generated large-volume effusive tholeiitic magmas. Depths of tholeiite magma generation average about 90 kilometers (km) across the field, but depths for individual units decreased southward, consistent with lithospheric thinning toward the Colorado Plateau margin. Early and middle-stage transitional basalts, alkali olivine basalts (AOBs), and basanites originate from a progressively deeper (>100 km) region in a prevalent mantle (PREMA)-like asthenospheric source produced by increasingly smaller degrees of melting, as low as about 2 percent. The chemical signature of the basanites is consistent with small degrees of melting in a carbonated, asthenospheric source to depths of about 140 km. As heat waned, the last phase of volcanism was dominated by more explosive EARs derived at shallower lithospheric pressures but that have isotopic and trace element similarities to the deeper asthenospheric magmas. This suggests mixing between deeper basanitic and shallower tholeiitic magmas. With waning heat, eruptions became more localized along alignments, likely related to boundaries between blocks of Proterozoic crust with differing properties that affected magma ascent. The petrogenetic patterns are consistent with a variety of processes. Basin and Range Province extension, melting, and heat-induced weakening progressively eroded the Colorado Plateau’s thicker lithosphere, giving rise to relatively high degrees of partial melting from shallower (<90 km) sources that produced the early large volumes of effusive tholeiitic magma. Possible lithosphere delamination and removal, and a resulting steep boundary step with the asthenosphere, may have given rise to mantle edge convection, resulting in the mixing of basanitic and tholeiitic magmas. With plate motion, shear-driven upwelling likely gave an eastward component to convection, affecting relative amounts of melting at the field’s western boundary and corresponding with volcanism moving eastward during times of peak vent production by eruption of alkalic lavas, giving rise to more explosive and lower volume eruptions.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

The coral reef of South Moloka'i, Hawai'i— Portrait of a sediment-threatened fringing reef

Moloka‘i, with the most extensive coral reef in the main Hawaiian Islands, is especially sacred to Hina, the Goddess of the Moon. As Hinaalo, she is the Mother of the Hawaiian people; as Hinapuku‘a, she is the Goddess of Fishermen; and in the form Hina‘opuhalako‘a, she is the Goddess who gave birth to coral, coral reefs, and all spiny marine organisms. Interdependence between the reef’s living resources, the people, and their cosmology was the basis for management of Moloka‘i’s coastal waters for over a thousand years. The ancient residents of Moloka‘i built the greatest concentration of fishponds known anywhere, but their mastery of mariculture, something needed now more than ever, was lost after near genocide from exotic Western diseases. Subsequent destruction of the native vegetation for exotic cattle, goats, pigs, sugar cane, and pineapple caused soil erosion and sedimentation on the reef flat. This masterful volume clearly documents that soil washing into the sea is the major threat to the reef today. Abandoned fishponds, choked with sediment, now act as barriers and mud traps, making damage to corals less than it would otherwise would have been. The role of mud and freshwater from land in preventing coral reef growth, clearly articulated in Charles Darwin’s first book, The Structure and Distribution of Coral Reefs, is the major theme of this book. All around the tropics, coral reefs have died from huge increases in terrestrial sedimentation that resulted from destruction of hillside forests for cash-crop agriculture and pastures in the colonial era, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the islands of the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. It is obvious that one cannot manage the coastal zone as a unit separate from the watersheds that drain into it. Yet there has been surprisingly little comprehensive scientific study of these impacts. In this landmark volume, U.S. Geological Survey researchers and their colleagues have developed and applied a remarkably integrated approach to the reefs of Moloka‘i, combining geology, oceanography, and biology to provide an in-depth understanding of the processes that have made these reefs grow and that now limit them. They have joined old fashioned natural history of marine animals and plants with study of the geological evolution of the island, hydrology, meteorology, and land-use history, to an arsenal of new methods of remote sensing, including aerial photography, laser ranging, infrared thermal mapping, seismic reflection, in-situ instrumentation to measure chemical parameters of water quality, and direct measurements of the physical driving forces affecting them—such as wave energy, currents, sedimentation, and sediment transport. They provide a level of documentation and insight that has never been available for any reef before. A remarkable feature of this book is that it is aimed at the people of Moloka‘i to inform them of what is happening to their reef and what they might do to preserve their vital resources. The scientific data and interpretations are expressed in unusually clear and comprehensible language, free of the professional jargon that makes most technical publications impenetrable to the public that most needs to know about them, yet without loss of scientific rigor. Here readers will see clearly explained the whole path of soil loss, from the impacts of wild pigs and goats at higher elevations, deforestation of the hills for cattle pasture at lower levels, and denudation of low lands for cash crops. The resulting biological impoverishment has bared the soils, which wash away in flash storms, smothering the inshore reefs, whose growth was already limited because they had grown right up to sea level. The data in this book show that the mud doesn’t get far if it is washed into the sea during a big storm with heavy waves. Afterwards this mud keeps getting stirred up by every succeeding storm, spreading and affecting corals over wider areas until it is finally washed out of the system—and that only happens if there is no more new mud washing onto the reef. I saw this myself a few years ago in Pila‘a Bay on Kaua‘i, where a bulldozed hillside of abandoned sugar cane fields had slumped right on top of a coral reef following exceptional rains. Years later, the algae species were zoned in a way that clearly mapped the distribution of nutrients washed into the bay, most likely from fertilizers bound to the eroded soils. That pattern closely mimics, on a small scale, that shown in Moloka‘i in this volume, where the inner reef is covered with algae, zoned by species in a way that points to land-based sources of nutrients, while the outermost reef slope is still coral dominated, and the deep algae seem to indicate deep-water nutrient upwelling. What of the future? The Hawaiian Islands have been exceptionally fortunate to be spared the worst coral heatstroke death from high temperatures, at least to date. So far, the worst global warming impacts have luckily been small in this region, and the small number of people on Moloka‘i has kept population densities, and sewage pollution, low compared to the more developed islands. Nutrients from years of sugar and pineapple fertilization, and the washing of this soil onto the reefs, show clear influences on the pattern of algae on the reef. Even at very low levels of nutrients, well below that which drives algae to smother and kill coral reefs, more algae is present. Soil erosion control is therefore the key to better management of both nutrients and turbidity on Moloka‘i reefs. To that end land management actions mentioned in this book, such as suppressing wild fires and eliminating wild goats and pigs, could be made even more effective if supplemented by active erosion control using plants whose roots bind the soil effectively in place. Through all of these efforts, Hina and the people of Moloka‘i could be happy again!

Hawaii↗