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At least 1,495 records · Page 83Linked to original sources

Assessing geomorphic change along the Trinity River downstream from Lewiston Dam, California, 1980-2011

The Trinity River Restoration Program, one of the nation’s largest adaptively managed river restoration programs, requires periodic assessment to determine the effectiveness of management actions in restoring channel dynamics and habitat features. This study documents riparian and channel changes along an intensively managed 65-kilometer reach of the Trinity River in California, downstream from Lewiston Dam. The two primary periods of interest, from 1980 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2011, are separated by a shift in restoration activities mandated by the U.S. Department of the Interior December 2000 Record of Decision. The post-2001 restoration strategy increased managed-flow releases, gravel augmentation, watershed restoration, and mechanical channel rehabilitation. We assessed the nature and extent of geomorphic change and a series of ecological performance measures (channel complexity, shoreline length, and channel–floodplain connectivity) by using a series of maps digitized from available rectified orthophotography acquired during low-flow conditions in 1980, 1997, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2011. Lateral changes in riparian and channel features were used to quantify alluvial processes, and a review of existing streamflow, sediment, and restoration records was used to assess causal mechanisms. During the study period, natural bank erosion and mechanical rehabilitation of channel margins converted riparian features to channel features and expanded the active-channel area. The primary period of bank erosion and expansion of the active channel was from 1980 to 1997. Subsequent bar accretion from 1997 to 2001, followed by slightly greater bar scour from 2001 to 2006, took place primarily in the central and lower reaches of the study area, downstream of Indian Creek. In comparison, post‑2006 bank and bar changes were spatially limited to reaches that had sufficient local transport capacity or sediment supply supported by gravel augmentation, mechanical channel rehabilitation, and tributary contributions. The highest rates of change in the areal extents of channel and riparian features were observed during the pre‑2001 period, which was longer and relatively wetter than the post-2001 period. A series of tributary floods in 1997, 1998, and 2006 increased channel complexity and floodplain connectivity. During the post-2006 period, managed-flow releases, in the absence of tributary flooding, combined with gravel augmentation and mechanical restoration, caused localized increases in sediment supply and transport capacity that led to smaller, but measurable, increases in channel complexity and floodplain connectivity in the upper river near Lewiston Dam. Extensive pre-2001 channel widening and the muted geomorphic response of channel rehabilitation sites to post-2001 managed flows highlight the need for continued monitoring and assessment of the magnitude, duration, and timing of prescriptive flows and associated geomorphic responses.

California↗

Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods in urban basins in Missouri

Streamgage flood-frequency analyses were done for 35 streamgages on urban streams in and adjacent to Missouri for estimation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban areas of Missouri. A log-Pearson Type-III distribution was fitted to the annual series of peak flow data retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System. For this report, the flood frequency estimates are expressed in terms of percent annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2. Of the 35 streamgages, 30 are located in Missouri. The remaining five non-Missouri streamgages were added to the dataset to improve the range and applicability of the regression analyses from the streamgage frequency analyses. Ordinary least-squares was used to determine the best set of independent variables for the regression equations. Basin characteristics selected for independent variables into the ordinary least-squares regression analyses were based on theoretical relation to flood flows, literature review of possible basin characteristics, and the ability to measure the basin characteristics using digital datasets and geographic information system technology. Results of the ordinary least-squares were evaluated on the basis of Mallow's Cp statistic, the adjusted coefficient of determination, and the statistical significance of the independent variables. The independent variables of drainage area and percent impervious area were determined to be statistically significant and readily determined from existing digital datasets. The drainage area variable was computed using the best elevation data available, either from a statewide 10-meter grid or high-resolution elevation data from urban areas. The impervious area variable was computed from the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area dataset. The National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area data for each basin was compared to historical imagery and 7.5-minute topographic maps to verify the national dataset represented the urbanization of the basin at the time streamgage data were collected. Eight streamgages had less urbanization during the period of time streamflow data were collected than was shown on the 2001 dataset. The impervious area values for these eight urban basins were adjusted downward as much as 23 percent to account for the additional urbanization since the streamflow data were collected. Weighted least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the final regression equations for the statewide urban flood-frequency equations. Weighted least-squares techniques improve regression equations by adjusting for different and varying lengths in streamflow records. The final flood-frequency equations for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods for Missouri provide a technique for estimating peak flows on urban streams at gaged and ungaged sites. The applicability of the equations is limited by the range in basin characteristics used to develop the regression equations. The range in drainage area is 0.28 to 189 square miles; range in impervious area is 2.3 to 46.0 percent. Seven of the 35 selected streamgages were used to compare the results of the existing rural and urban equations to the urban equations presented in this report for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability. Results of the comparison indicate that the estimated peak flows for the urban equation in this report ranged from 3 to 52 percent higher than the results from the rural equations. Comparing the estimated urban peak flows from this report to the existing urban equation developed in 1986 indicated the range was 255 percent lower to 10 percent higher. The overall comparison between the current (2010) and 1986 urban equations indicates a reduction in estimated peak flow values for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood.

Missouri↗

Water levels in aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand of southwestern and northeastern Arkansas and the Tokio Formation of southwestern Arkansas, spring 2008

The Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation aquifers in southwestern Arkansas and the Nacatoch Sand in northeastern Arkansas are sources of water for industrial, public supply, domestic, and agricultural uses. Potentiometric-surface maps were constructed from water-level measurements made in 61 wells completed in the Nacatoch Sand and in 50 wells completed in the Tokio Formation during spring 2008. Aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation are hereafter referred to as the Nacatoch aquifer and the Tokio aquifer, respectively. The direction of groundwater flow in the Nacatoch aquifer in northeastern Arkansas generally is towards the southeast. A potentiometric high is located along the north and northwestern boundaries of the area. The direction of groundwater flow in the Nacatoch aquifer in southwestern Arkansas is towards the south-southeast in Little River, Miller, and Hempstead Counties and to the east-southeast in Nevada and Clark Counties. A potentiometric high is located within the outcrop area in north-central Hempstead County. A cone of depression exists in the Nacatoch aquifer at Hope in southeastern Hempstead County. The direction of groundwater flow in the Tokio aquifer in southwestern Arkansas generally is towards the south or southeast. A potentiometric high is located within the outcrop area. Artesian conditions exist in southeastern Pike, northeastern Hempstead, and northwestern Nevada Counties. One apparent cone of depression might exist northwest of Hope in Hempstead County. In northeastern Arkansas, groundwater withdrawals from the Nacatoch aquifer increased by 480 percent from 1965 to 2005. In southwestern Arkansas, withdrawals from the Nacatoch aquifer and Tokio aquifer increased by 125 percent and 201 percent, respectively, from 1965 to 1980 and decreased by 93 percent and 80 percent, respectively, from 1980 to 2000. Withdrawals from Nacatoch aquifer and Tokio aquifer increased by 690 percent and 291 percent, respectively, from 2000 to 2005. Long-term hydrographs were prepared for 10 wells in the study areas. Changes in water levels in some wells may be associated with changes in withdrawals from the respective aquifers.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of arsenic concentrations in domestic well water, by town, in Maine 2005-09

Prior studies have established that approximately 10 percent of domestic wells in Maine have arsenic levels greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant limit (10 micrograms per liter (ug/L)). Of even greater concern are multiple discoveries of wells with very high arsenic levels (> 500 ug/L) in several areas of the State. A study was initiated to assist the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ME-CDC) in developing a better understanding of the statewide spatial occurrence of wells with elevated arsenic levels at the individual town level, identify areas of the State that should be targeted for increased efforts to promote well-water testing, and generate data for potential use in predicting areas of the State likely to have very high levels of arsenic. The State's Health and Environmental and Testing Laboratory (HETL) annually analyzes samples from thousands of domestic wells for arsenic. Results of arsenic analyses of domestic well water submitted to the HETL from 2005 to 2009 were screened and organized, by town, in order to summarize the results for all towns with samples submitted to the HETL. In order to preserve the privacy of well owners, the screening and organization of samples was conducted in the offices of the ME-CDC, following applicable Maine and United States laws, rules, and privacy policies. After screening, the database contained samples from 531 towns in Maine and from 11,111 individual wells. Of those towns, 385 had samples from 5 or more individual wells, 174 towns had samples from 20 or more individual wells, and 49 towns had samples from 60 or more wells. These samples, because they were submitted by homeowners and were not part of a random sample, may not be representative of all wells in a given area. The minimum, maximum, and median arsenic values for the towns with five or more samples were calculated, and the maximum and median values were mapped for the State. The percentages of samples exceeding 10, 50, 100, and 500 ug/L were calculated for the 174 towns with 20 or more sampled wells, and statewide maps were prepared for each of these categories. More than 25 percent of the sampled wells in 44 towns exceeded 10 ug/L. Many fewer towns had wells with samples that exceeded the 50, 100, or 500 ug/L categories. For 19 towns, more than 10 percent of the sampled wells had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 50 ug/L, and in 45 towns, 1 percent or more exceeded 100 ug/L. Of these, Surry in Hancock County had 120 wells tested, and 23 percent of those wells had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 100 ug/L, which is a much higher rate than for other towns. In only four towns (Danforth in Washington County, Surry and Blue Hill in Hancock County, and Woolwich in Sagadahoc County), 1 percent or more of the sampled wells had arsenic concentrations greater than 500 ug/L during 2005-09. The distribution of high arsenic concentrations in wells follows some geographic patterns, which are generally geologically controlled. There are clusters or belts of towns with high arsenic concentrations (> 50 ug/L), such as in southern coastal areas, the Kennebec County area, and towns along the central coastal part of Maine. In contrast, there are areas of the State with low arsenic concentrations, such as the northernmost towns, as well as towns in the western and west-central areas. There appear to be three distinct large-scale areas of high concentrations of arsenic in groundwater-one in southern coastal areas, one in central Kennebec County, and one in the town of Ellsworth (Hancock County) and the surrounding areas. In addition, several smaller clusters of isolated high concentrations of arsenic in groundwater exist. Earlier testing has identified other clusters of very high arsenic concentrations in groundwater in the towns of Northport, Buxton/Hollis, and Waldoboro, but those samples were collected before 2005 and did not factor in this analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulation of groundwater flow and chloride transport in the “1,200-foot” sand with scenarios to mitigate saltwater migration in the “2,000-foot” sand in the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana

Groundwater withdrawals have caused saltwater to encroach into freshwater-bearing aquifers beneath Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The 10 aquifers beneath the Baton Rouge area, which includes East and West Baton Rouge Parishes, Pointe Coupee Parish, and East and West Feliciana Parishes, provided about 184.3 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for public supply and industrial use in 2012. Groundwater withdrawals from the “1,200-foot” sand in East Baton Rouge Parish have caused water-level drawdown as large as 177 feet (ft) north of the Baton Rouge Fault and limited saltwater encroachment from south of the fault. The recently developed groundwater model for simulating transport in the “2,000-foot” sand was rediscretized to also enable transport simulation within the “1,200-foot” sand and was updated with groundwater withdrawal data through 2012. The model was recalibrated to water-level observation data through 2012 with the parameter-estimation code PEST and calibrated to observed chloride concentrations at observation wells within the “1,200-foot” sand and “2,000-foot” sand. The model is designed to evaluate strategies to control saltwater migration, including changes in the distribution of groundwater withdrawals and installation of scavenger wells to intercept saltwater before it reaches existing production wells. Seven hypothetical scenarios predict the effects of different groundwater withdrawal options on groundwater levels and the transport of chloride within the “1,200-foot” sand and the “2,000-foot” sand during 2015–2112. The predicted water levels and concentrations for all scenarios are depicted in maps for the years 2047 and 2112. The first scenario is a base case for comparison to the six other scenarios and simulates continuation of 2012 reported groundwater withdrawals through 2112 (100 years). The second scenario that simulates increased withdrawals from industrial wells in the “1,200-foot” sand predicts that water levels will be 12–25 ft lower by 2047 and that there will be a negligible difference in chloride concentrations within the “1,200-foot” sand. The five other scenarios simulate the effects of various withdrawal schemes on water levels and chloride concentrations within the “2,000-foot” sand. Amongst these five other scenarios, three of the scenarios simulate only various withdrawal reductions, whereas the two others also incorporate withdrawals from a scavenger well that is designed to extract salty water from the base of the “2,000-foot” sand. Two alternative pumping rates (2.5 Mgal/d and 1.25 Mgal/d) are simulated in each of the scavenger-well scenarios. For the “2,000-foot” sand scenarios, comparison of the predicted effects of the scenarios is facilitated by graphs of predicted chloride concentrations through time at selected observation wells, plots of salt mass in the aquifer through time, and a summary of the predicted plume area and average concentration. In all scenarios, water levels essentially equilibrate by 2047, after 30 years of simulated constant withdrawal rates. Although predicted water-level recovery within the “2,000-foot” sand is greatest for the scenario with the greatest reduction in groundwater withdrawal from that aquifer, the scavenger-well scenarios are most effective in mitigating the future extent and concentration of the chloride plume. The simulated scavenger-well withdrawal rate has more influence on the plume area and concentration than do differences among the scenarios in industrial and public-supply withdrawal rates.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both. Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described. Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency- analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

Montana↗

Water-level trends and potentiometric surfaces in the Nacatoch Aquifer in northeastern and southwestern Arkansas and in the Tokio Aquifer in southwestern Arkansas, 2014–15

The Nacatoch Sand in northeastern and southwestern Arkansas and the Tokio Formation in southwestern Arkansas are sources of groundwater for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and public use. Water-level altitudes measured in 51 wells completed in the Nacatoch Sand and 42 wells completed in the Tokio Formation during 2014 and 2015 were used to create potentiometric-surface maps of the two areas. Aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation are hereafter referred to as the Nacatoch aquifer and the Tokio aquifer, respectively. Potentiometric surfaces show that groundwater in the Nacatoch aquifer flows southeast toward the Mississippi River in northeastern Arkansas. Groundwater flow direction is towards the south and southeast in Hempstead, Little River, and Nevada Counties in southwestern Arkansas. An apparent cone of depression exists in southern Clark County and likely alters groundwater flow from a regional direction toward the depression. In southwestern Arkansas, potentiometric surfaces indicate that groundwater flow in the Tokio aquifer is towards the city of Hope. Northwest of Hope, an apparent cone of depression exists. In southwestern Pike, northwestern Nevada, and northeastern Hempstead Counties, an area of artesian flow (water levels are at or above land surface) exists. Water-level changes in wells were identified using two methods: (1) linear regression analysis of hydrographs from select wells with a minimum of 20 years of water-level data, and (2) a direct comparison between water-level measurements from 2008 and 2014–15 at each well. Of the six hydrographs analyzed in the Nacatoch aquifer, four indicated a decline in water levels. Compared to 2008 measurements, the largest rise in water levels was 35.14 feet (ft) in a well in Clark County, whereas the largest decline was 14.76 ft in a well in Nevada County, both located in southwestern Arkansas. Of the four hydrographs analyzed in the Tokio aquifer, one indicated a decline in water levels, while the others remained relatively unchanged. Compared to 2008 measurements, the largest rise in water levels was 21.34 ft in Hempstead County, and the largest water-level decline was 39.37 ft in Clark County. Although changes in water levels since 2008 are spatially varied; long-term trends indicate an overall decline in water levels in both aquifers.

Arkansas↗

Assessment of water availability in the Osage Nation using an integrated hydrologic-flow model

The Osage Nation of northeastern Oklahoma, conterminous with Osage County, covers about 2,900 square miles. The area is primarily rural with 62 percent of the land being native prairie grass, and much of the area is used for cattle ranching and extraction of petroleum and natural gas. Protection of water rights are important to the Osage Nation because of its reliance on cattle ranching and the potential for impairment of water quality by petroleum extraction. Additionally, the potential for future population increases, demands for water from neighboring areas such as the Tulsa metropolitan area, and expansion of petroleum and natural-gas extraction on water resources of this area further the need for the Osage Nation to better understand its water availability. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Osage Nation, completed a hydrologic investigation to assess the status and availability of surface-water and groundwater resources in the Osage Nation. A transient integrated hydrologic-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey fully integrated hydrologic-flow model called the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. The integrated hydrologic-flow model, called the Osage Nation Integrated Hydrologic Model (ONIHM), was constructed and uses an orthogonal grid of 276 rows and 289 columns, and each grid cell measures 1,312.34 feet (ft; 400 meters) per side, with eight variably thick vertical layers that represented the alluvial and bedrock aquifers within the study area, including the alluvial aquifer, the Vamoosa-Ada aquifer, and the minor Pennsylvanian bedrock aquifers, and the confining units. Landscape and groundwater-flow processes were simulated for two periods: (1) the 1950–2014 period from January 1950 through September 2014 and (2) the forecast period from October 2014 through December 2099. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated past conditions using measured or estimated inputs, and the forecast-period ONIHM simulated three separate potential forecast conditions under constant dry, average, or wet climate conditions using calibrated input values from the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated by linking the Parameter Estimation software (PEST) with the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. PEST uses statistical parameter estimation techniques to identify the best set of parameter values to minimize the difference between measured or estimated calibration targets and their simulated equivalent values (residuals). Tikhonov regularization and singular-value decomposition-assist features of PEST were used during the calibration process. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated to 713 measured groundwater levels at 195 wells; 95,636 estimated monthly mean groundwater levels at 124 wells; 5,307 measured streamflows at 13 streamgages; and 8,679 simulated mean monthly streamflows at 10 streamgages extracted from a surface-water model by adjusting 231 parameters. The estimated groundwater-level observations and streamflows were included as observations to improve the spatial and temporal density of observation targets during calibration. The best set of parameter values obtained during the calibration process of the 1950–2014 model was then used as the input parameter values for the forecast model simulations. A comparison of the calibration targets to their corresponding simulated values indicated that the model adequately reproduced streamflows and groundwater levels for some streamgages and wells and underestimated streamflows and groundwater levels at other locations. Measured and simulated streamflows correlated adequately with a coefficient of determination of 0.938, as did water levels with a coefficient of determination of 0.795. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM underestimated certain groundwater levels and streamflows, but generally measured or estimated calibration targets correlated well with simulated equivalents, which indicated that the model can adequately simulate the response of the hydrologic system to stresses in the 1950–2014 and forecast periods. In the 1950–2014 period ONIHM, the calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity for layer 1 alluvial aquifer was 30.7 feet per day, and the seven lower layers had a calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity of less than 3.3 feet per day. The mean calibrated groundwater-level residual was 16.6 ft, and the mean calibrated streamflow residual of the Arkansas River at Ralston, Oklahoma, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07152500) was within 6 percent (373 cubic feet per second) of mean measured streamflow for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The ONIHM simulated landscape fluxes of precipitation; groundwater applied by irrigation wells; evapotranspiration from precipitation, groundwater, and irrigation; runoff from precipitation; and deep percolation from precipitation. The largest loss of water from the landscape was evapotranspiration from precipitation with a calibrated mean annual outflow of 32 inches (in.): mean annual precipitation was about 36 in. Calibrated mean annual runoff and deep percolation (recharge to the water table) rates were 4.7 inches per year (in/yr) and 0.70 in/yr, respectively, for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM groundwater fluxes included net farm net recharge (calculated as the difference between the inflow of recharge to the water table and the outflow of evapotranspiration from the water table such that negative values indicate that evapotranspiration from the water table was greater than deep percolation [recharge to the water table] and vice versa). Net farm net recharge was the largest flux from the groundwater system with a mean annual net outflow of 153.4 cubic feet per second. Stream leakage was the largest flux to the groundwater system with a mean annual net inflow of 152.5 cubic feet per second, indicating that, on average, the groundwater/surface-water interaction was a “losing” system where stream water leaked into the subsurface and recharged the water table. Simulated monthly trends demonstrated that net stream leakage was the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system for 10 of the 12 months; for the other 2 months (January and March), farm net recharge (January) and net storage (March) were the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system. A saline groundwater interface map was created for the study and compared to the water levels from the final stress period of the 1950–2014 model to identify the presence of fresh/marginal groundwater throughout the study area. Fresh/marginal groundwater was characterized as groundwater with less than 1,500 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids. Fresh/marginal groundwater thickness ranged from 0 to 438.2 ft within the study area. The thickest regions of fresh/marginal groundwater were in the eastern part of the study area near Sand Creek, Bird Creek, and Hominy Creek and in the Arkansas River alluvial aquifer in the region downstream from the Arkansas River at Ralston, Okla. Like the 1950–2014 model, forecast model results for the landscape indicated that transpiration from precipitation was the largest flux out of the landscape for all three forecasts, constituting 77, 73, and 58 percent of precipitation for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. The dry and average forecast landscape fluxes demonstrated similar trends and magnitudes, whereas the wet forecast landscape fluxes indicated the largest changes compared to the average forecast fluxes. Most notably, runoff increased from a mean of 1.1 and 1.6 in/yr for the dry and average forecasts, respectively, to 10 in/yr for the wet forecast. Similar changes occurred for the other wet forecast landscape fluxes. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated three forecasts to assess the effects of potential climatic changes on the hydrologic system from October 2014 to December 2099. The three forecasts simulated theoretical dry, average, and wet conditions using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets from selected years in the calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM. Annual precipitation amounts were 26.89, 35.47, and 50.73 in. for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. Groundwater-flow component forecast results indicated that stream leakage is always a net inflow to the groundwater-flow system for dry, average, and wet conditions, meaning the study area stream network is always predominantly a “losing” regime where stream water infiltrates into the underlying aquifer. Storage was only a net outflow from the groundwater-flow system and indicated a replenishment to groundwater storage that resulted in an increase in groundwater levels only during the wet forecast. Further, these gains in groundwater storage for the wet forecast occurred only during February through June. Mean fresh/marginal groundwater saturated thicknesses were 125 and 126 ft for the dry and average forecast conditions, respectively, and wet forecast average thickness was 145 ft and ranged from 0 to 443 ft. The spatial extents of fresh/marginal groundwater at the end of the dry, average, and wet forecast model periods (December 2099) did not change substantially from the end of the 1950–2014 model period (September 2014).

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

A preliminary assessment of streamflow gains and losses for selected stream reaches in the lower Guadalupe River Basin, Texas, 2010-12

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers–Fort Worth District, the Texas Water Development Board, the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, and the Edwards Aquifer Authority, investigated streamflow gains and losses in the lower Guadalupe River Basin during four selected base-flow periods in March 2010, April 2011, August 2011, and, for a stream reach between Seguin, Tex., and Gonzales, Tex., in September 2012. Major sources of streamflow in this basin include releases from Canyon Lake, inflow from major springs (Comal Springs, San Marcos Springs, and Hueco Springs), and base flow (groundwater seeping to streams). Streamflow and spring-flow data were collected at 35 streamflow-gaging stations (including 6 deployed for this study) during the base-flow periods. This report describes streamflow in the lower Guadalupe River Basin, which consists of the Guadalupe River drainage basin downstream from Canyon Lake to the Guadalupe River near Tivoli, Tex. Streamflow conditions in the lower Guadalupe River Basin were analyzed by computing surface-water budgets for reaches of the lower Guadalupe River and tributary streams. Streamflow gains and losses were mapped for reaches where the computed gain or loss was greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow at the upstream and downstream ends of the reach. During the March 15–21, 2010, base-flow period, five reaches had gains greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow, including reach 1 on the Guadalupe River, which gained 130 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and reach 3 on the Comal River, which gained 359 ft 3 /s. Streamflow gains during March 2010 primarily were derived from (1) inflow from the Edwards aquifer outcrop, including Hueco Springs and Comal Springs; (2) flow conveyed through the alluvium of the streambed; (3) inflows from the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer and the Yegua Jackson aquifer; and (4) groundwater inflows from the Gulf Coast aquifer, which are enhanced by seepage losses from Coleto Creek Reservoir. During this base-flow period, none of the reaches had a loss greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. During the April 10–16, 2011, base-flow period, three reaches had gains greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. Among these three reaches were reach 1 on the Guadalupe River, which gained 40.7 ft 3 /s, and reach 3 on the Comal River, which gained 271 ft 3 /s—reaches where streamflow gains were also measured in March 2010. Streamflow gains during April 2011 primarily were derived from (1) inflow from the Edwards aquifer outcrop, including Hueco Springs and Comal Springs; and (2) inflows from the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer. During this base-flow period, three reaches had losses greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. A reach of the Blanco River near Kyle, Tex. (reach 10), lost 18.7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Much of this loss likely entered the groundwater system through the numerous faults that intersect the stream channel northwest of Kyle. The reach that included the confluence of the Guadalupe and San Marcos Rivers (reach 17) lost 155 ft 3 /s, likely as recharge to the Sparta and Queen City aquifers. During the August 19–25, 2011, base-flow period, three reaches had gains greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow, including reach 3 on the Comal River (168 ft 3 /s gain), which was one of the reaches where gains in streamflow also were measured in March 2010 and April 2011. Streamflow gains in August 2011 were primarily from (1) inflows from Comal Springs, (2) inflows from the Yegua Jackson aquifer, and (3) groundwater inflows from the Gulf Coast aquifer, which are enhanced by seepage losses from Coleto Creek Reservoir. During this base-flow period, five reaches had losses greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. The reach including the confluence of the Guadalupe and Comal Rivers lost 82.8 ft 3 /s. Much of that loss likely seeped into the local groundwater system. The reach of the Guadalupe River south of New Braunfels, Tex., to Seguin, Tex., lost 53.5 ft 3 /s. Part of that loss may have been from seepage through streambed alluvium. Reaches 9 and 10 of the Blanco River near Kyle lost 2.20 and 6.60 ft 3 /s, respectively, likely as infiltration through numerous faults intersecting the stream channel northwest of Kyle. Plum Creek between Lockhart, Tex., and Luling, Tex., lost 2.11 ft 3 /s, likely as recharge to the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer. A base-flow period during September 22–28, 2012, was studied for the reach of the Guadalupe River between Seguin and Gonzalez, including flows from San Marcos River and Plum Creek. During this period, for the Guadalupe River reach between Seguin and Oak Forest, no computed gains or losses were greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow.

Texas↗

Porphyry copper assessment of the Tibetan Plateau, China: Chapter F in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with the China Geological Survey to conduct a mineral-resource assessment of resources in porphyry copper deposits on the Tibetan Plateau in western China. This area hosts several very large porphyry deposits, exemplified by the Yulong and Qulong deposits, each containing at least 7,000,000 metric tons (t) of copper. However, large parts of the area are underexplored and are likely to contain undiscovered porphyry copper deposits. Three tracts were delineated as permissive for porphyry copper deposits on the Tibetan Plateau—the Yulong (Eocene and Oligocene), Dali (Eocene through Miocene), and Gangdese (Oligocene and Miocene) tracts. The tracts were defined based on mapped and inferred subsurface distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges in which the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits is possible. These tracts range in area from about 95,000 to about 240,000 square kilometers. Although maps of different scales were used in the assessment, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. The deposits on the Tibetan Plateau all formed in a post-subduction environment, one newly recognized as permissive for the occurrence of porphyry copper deposits. Based on the grade, tonnage, and geologic characteristics of the known deposits, two tracts, Yulong and Gangdese, were evaluated using the general (Cu-Mo-Au) porphyry copper grade and tonnage model. The Dali tract was evaluated using the gold-rich (Cu-Au) submodel. Assessment participants estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different levels of confidence for each permissive tract. These estimates were then combined with the selected grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to generate quantitative probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Additional resources in extensions of deposits with identified resources were not specifically evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, show mean expected amounts of metal and rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. This assessment estimated a mean of 39 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within the assessed permissive tracts on the Tibetan Plateau. This represents nearly four times the number of known deposits (11) already discovered. Predicted mean (arithmetic) resources that could be associated with the undiscovered deposits are about 145,000,000 t of copper and about 4,900 t of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. Reliable reports of the identified resources in the 11 known deposits total about 27,000,000 t of copper and about 800 t of gold. Therefore, based on the assessments of undiscovered Tibetan Plateau resources in this report, about six times as much copper may occur in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits as has been identified to date.

Tibetan Plateau↗

Hydrogeology of the Susquehanna River valley-fill aquifer system and adjacent areas in eastern Broome and southeastern Chenango Counties, New York

The hydrogeology of the valley-fill aquifer system along a 32-mile reach of the Susquehanna River valley and adjacent areas was evaluated in eastern Broome and southeastern Chenango Counties, New York. The surficial geology, inferred ice-marginal positions, and distribution of stratified-drift aquifers were mapped from existing data. Ice-marginal positions, which represent pauses in the retreat of glacial ice from the region, favored the accumulation of coarse-grained deposits whereas more steady or rapid ice retreat between these positions favored deposition of fine-grained lacustrine deposits with limited coarse-grained deposits at depth. Unconfined aquifers with thick saturated coarse-grained deposits are the most favorable settings for water-resource development, and three several-mile-long sections of valley were identified (mostly in Broome County) as potentially favorable: (1) the southernmost valley section, which extends from the New York–Pennsylvania border to about 1 mile north of South Windsor, (2) the valley section that rounds the west side of the umlaufberg (an isolated bedrock hill within a valley) north of Windsor, and (3) the east–west valley section at the Broome County–Chenango County border from Nineveh to East of Bettsburg (including the lower reach of the Cornell Brook valley). Fine-grained lacustrine deposits form extensive confining units between the unconfined areas, and the water-resource potential of confined aquifers is largely untested. Recharge, or replenishment, of these aquifers is dependent not only on infiltration of precipitation directly on unconfined aquifers, but perhaps more so from precipitation that falls in adjacent upland areas. Surface runoff and shallow groundwater from the valley walls flow downslope and recharge valley aquifers. Tributary streams that drain upland areas lose flow as they enter main valleys on permeable alluvial fans. This infiltrating water also recharges valley aquifers. Current (2012) use of water resources in the area is primarily through domestic wells, most of which are completed in fractured bedrock in upland areas. A few villages in the Susquehanna River valley have supply wells that draw water from beneath alluvial fans and near the Susquehanna River, which is a large potential source of water from induced infiltration.

New York↗

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow in the Leetown Area, West Virginia

The Leetown Science Center is a research facility operated by the U.S. Geological Survey that occupies approximately 455-acres near Kearneysville, Jefferson County, West Virginia. Aquatic and fish research conducted at the Center requires adequate supplies of high-quality, cold ground water. Three large springs and three production wells currently (in 2006) supply water to the Center. The recent construction of a second research facility (National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture) operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and co-located on Center property has placed additional demands on available water resources in the area. A three-dimensional steady-state finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Leetown area and was used to assess the availability of ground water to sustain current and anticipated future demands. The model also was developed to test a conceptual model of ground-water flow in the complex karst aquifer system in the Leetown area. Due to the complexity of the karst aquifer system, a multidisciplinary research study was required to define the hydrogeologic setting. Geologic mapping, surface- and borehole-geophysical surveys, stream base-flow surveys, and aquifer tests were conducted to provide the hydrogeologic data necessary to develop and calibrate the model. It would not have been possible to develop a numerical model of the study area without the intensive data collection and methods developments components of the larger, more comprehensive hydrogeologic investigation. Results of geologic mapping and surface-geophysical surveys verified the presence of several prominent thrust faults and identified additional faults and other complex geologic structures (including overturned anticlines and synclines) in the area. These geologic structures are known to control ground-water flow in the region. Results of this study indicate that cross-strike faults and fracture zones are major avenues of ground-water flow. Prior to this investigation, the conceptual model of ground-water flow for the region focused primarily on bedding planes and strike-parallel faults and joints as controls on ground-water flow but did not recognize the importance of cross-strike faults and fracture zones that allow ground water to flow downgradient across or through less permeable geologic formations. Results of the ground-water flow simulation indicate that current operations at the Center do not substantially affect either streamflow (less than a 5-percent reduction in annual streamflow) or ground-water levels in the Leetown area under normal climatic conditions but potentially could have greater effects on streamflow during long-term drought (reduction in streamflow of approximately 14 percent). On the basis of simulation results, ground-water withdrawals based on the anticipated need for an additional 150 to 200 gal/min (gallons per minute) of water at the Center also would not seriously affect streamflow (less than 8 to 9 percent reduction in streamflow) or ground-water levels in the area during normal climatic conditions. During drought conditions, however, the effects of current ground-water withdrawals and anticipated additional withdrawals of 150 to 200 gal/min to augment existing supplies result in moderate to substantial declines in water levels of 0.5-1.2 feet (ft) in the vicinity of the Center's springs and production wells. Streamflow was predicted to be reduced locally by approximately 21 percent. Such withdrawals during a drought or prolonged period of below normal ground-water levels would result in substantial declines in the flow of the Center's springs and likely would not be sustainable for more than a few months. The drought simulated in this model was roughly equivalent to the more than 1-year drought that affected the region from November 1998 through February 2000. The potential reduction in streamflow is a result of capture of ground water tha

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water levels and selected water-quality conditions in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in Eastern Arkansas, 2008

During the spring of 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey, measured 670 water levels in 659 wells completed in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas. Groundwater levels are affected by groundwater withdrawals resulting in potentiometric-surface depressions. In 2008, the lowest water-level altitude was 69 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in the center of Arkansas County. The highest water-level altitude was 288 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in northeastern Clay County on the west side of Crowleys Ridge. Two large depressions in the potentiometric surface are located in Arkansas, Lonoke, and Prairie Counties and west of Crowleys Ridge in Craighead, Cross, Lee, Monroe, Poinsett, St. Francis, and Woodruff Counties. The elongated depression in Arkansas, Lonoke, and Prairie Counties has two areas that have changed in horizontal area or depth when compared to previous conditions of the aquifer. The area in Arkansas County in the southeastern half of the depression has not expanded horizontally from recent years, although the center of the depression has deepened. The area in Lonoke and Prairie Counties in the northwestern half of the depression has not expanded and water level in the deeper part of the depression has risen. In Lonoke and Prairie Counties in the northwestern half of the depression, the 90-foot contour shown on the 2006 potentiometric-surface map is not shown on the 2008 potentiometric-surface map. Along the west side of Crowleys Ridge, the area enclosed by 140-foot contour in Cross and Poinsett Counties has expanded further south into Cross County. The 130-foot contour in Poinsett County expanded north in 2008. The 130-foot contour is shown in Cross County, which was not evident in previous years. The 130-foot contour in St. Francis, Monroe, and Woodruff Counties in 2006 is not shown on the 2008 potentiometric-surface map. A map showing the difference in water level was constructed using 595 differences in water levels measured in 585 wells during 2008 and 2004. The difference in measured water levels from 2004 to 2008 ranged from -20.6 feet to 25.9 feet, with a mean of -1.6 feet. The largest decline of -20.6 feet occurred in Randolph County and the largest rise of 25.9 feet occurred in Prairie County. Out of the 595 differences, 442 were declines (74.3 percent), 10 were no difference (values of 0.0 ft) (1.7 percent), and 143 were rises (24.0 percent). Five areas are dominated by declines that are west of Crowleys Ridge; in eastern Craighead County; in southern Mississippi and Crittenden Counties; in eastern Lonoke and western Prairie Counties; and in Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, and Lincoln Counties. Long-term water-level changes were evaluated using hydrographs from 173 wells in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer for the period 1984 to 2008. The mean annual rise or decline in water level for the entire study area was -0.38 feet per year (ft/yr) with a range of -4.86 to 0.58 ft/yr. Independence and White Counties are the only counties with a mean annual rise from 1984 to 2008. Mean annual declines between -0.50 ft/yr and 0.00 ft/yr occurred in Arkansas, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Drew, Greene, Jefferson, Mississippi, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett, Prairie, Pulaski, Randolph, and Woodruff Counties. Mean annual declines between -1.00 ft/yr and -0.50 ft/yr occurred in Ashley, Desha, Jackson, Lee, Lincoln, and St. Francis Counties. Mean annual declines between -1.50 ft/yr and -1.00 ft/yr occurred in Cross and Lonoke Counties. The analysis of long-term water-level changes in Arkansas, Lonoke, and Prairie Counties shows the elongation of the depression in these three counties. Arkansas and Prairie Counties have two different rates of annual decline for the two hydrographs shown for each county. Water levels in the two we

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Surface-Water and Groundwater Interactions along the Withlacoochee River, West-Central Florida

A study of the Withlacoochee River watershed in west-central Florida was conducted from October 2003 to March 2007 to gain a better understanding of the hydrology and surface-water and groundwater interactions along the river. The Withlacoochee River originates in the Green Swamp area in north-central Polk County and flows northerly through seven counties, emptying into the Gulf of Mexico. This study includes only the part of the watershed located between the headwaters in the Green Swamp and the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near Holder, Florida. The Withlacoochee River within the study area is about 108 miles long and drains about 1,820 square miles. The Withlacoochee River watershed is underlain by thick sequences of carbonate rock that are covered by thin surficial deposits of unconsolidated sand and sandy clay. The clay layer is breached in many places because of the karst nature of the underlying limestone, and the degree of confinement between the Upper Florida aquifer and the surficial aquifer is highly variable throughout the watershed. The potential for movement of water from the surface or shallow deposits to deeper deposits, or from deeper deposits to the shallow deposits, exists throughout the Withlacoochee River watershed. Water levels were higher in deeper Upper Floridan aquifer wells than in shallow Upper Floridan aquifer wells or surficial aquifer wells at 11 of 19 paired or nested well sites, indicating potential for discharge to the surface-water system. Water levels were higher in shallow Upper Floridan aquifer or surficial aquifer wells than in deeper Upper Floridan aquifer wells at five other sites, indicating potential for recharge to the deeper Upper Floridan aquifer. Water levels in the surficial aquifer and Upper Floridan aquifer wells at the remaining three sites were virtually the same, indicating little or no confinement at the sites. Potentiometric-surface maps of the Upper Floridan aquifer indicate the pattern of groundwater flow in the aquifer did not vary greatly from season to season during the study. Potentiometric contours indicate groundwater discharge to the river in the vicinity of Dade City and Lake Panasoffkee. During dry periods, groundwater from the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer contributed to the flow in the river. During wet periods, streamflow had additional contributions from runoff and input from tributaries. Groundwater has a greater effect on streamflow downstream from the Dade City station than upstream from the Dade City station because confinement between surficial deposits and the Upper Floridan aquifer is greater in the Green Swamp area than in downstream areas. Estimates of streamflow gains and losses were made along the Withlacoochee River during base-flow conditions in May 2004, April 2005, and April 2006. Base flow was higher in April 2005 than in May 2004 and April 2006. Consistent net seepage gains were identified in 16 of 20 subreaches analyzed during all seepage runs. The direction of exchange was variable in the remaining four subreaches. Low specific conductance, pH, and calcium concentrations in water from the Withlacoochee River near the headwater area indicated a surface-water system not directly connected to the Upper Floridan aquifer. Downstream from the Dade City station, higher specific conductance, pH, and calcium concentrations in the river water indicated an increasing influence of groundwater, and were similar to groundwater during low-flow conditions. Strontium isotope ratios indicate groundwater originates from shallow parts of the Upper Floridan aquifer in the upper reaches of the river, and from increasingly deeper parts of the aquifer in the downstream direction. Mean annual base-flow estimates also indicate increasing groundwater discharge to the river in the downstream direction. Mean annual base flow estimated using standard hydrograph separation method assumptions ranged from about 4.7 to 5.1 inches per year

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characterization of geologic deposits in the vicinity of US Ecology, Amargosa Basin, southern Nevada

Multiple approaches have been applied to better understand the characteristics of geologic units exposed at the surface and buried at depth in the vicinity of US Ecology (USE), a low-level commercial waste site in the northern Amargosa Desert, Nevada. Techniques include surficial geologic mapping and interpretation of the subsurface using borehole data. Dated deposits at depth were used to estimate rates of sediment accumulation. The subsurface lithologies have been modeled in three dimensions. Lithologic cross sections have been created from the three-dimensional model and have been compared to resistivity data at the same location. Where deposits appear offset, a fault was suspected. Global Positioning System elevation transects were measured and trenches were excavated to locate a strand of the Carrara Fault. The presence of the fault helps to better understand the shape of the potentiometric surface. These data will be used to better understand the hydrologic parameters controlling the containment of the waste at US Ecology. Quaternary geologic units exposed at the surface, in the vicinity of US Ecology, are derived from the alluvium shed off the adjacent range front and the Amargosa River. These deposits vary from modern to early Pleistocene in age. At depth, heterogeneous sands and gravel occur. Observed in deep trenches and boreholes, the subsurface deposits are characterized as fining-upward sequence of sediment from 5- to 8-meters thick. No volcanic units or fine-grained playa deposits were described in the boreholes to a depth of 200 meters. Based on Infrared Stimulated Luminescence dated core samples, short-term rates of sediment accumulation (<70,000 years) are an average of 2.7 millimeters per year, however, long-term rates (<3,900,000 years) are orders of magnitude less. Resistivity data, when compared to lithologic cross sections, generally are consistent with lithology grain size and probable soil carbonate accumulations. Surface resistivity displays a fining-upward sequence of sediments at the surface with a soil carbonate imprint. Finally, trenching north of US Ecology successfully exposed offset Quaternary deposits on a splay of the Carrara Fault. Holocene deposits do not appear to be faulted, however, a fault zone does intersect middle and late Pleistocene aged units.

Nevada↗

Hydrogeology of the West Branch Delaware River basin, Delaware County, New York

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, began a study of the hydrogeology of the West Branch Delaware River (Cannonsville Reservoir) watershed. There has been recent interest by energy companies in developing the natural gas reserves that are trapped within the Marcellus Shale, which is part of the Hamilton Group of Devonian age that underlies all the West Branch Delaware River Basin. Knowing the extent and thickness of stratified-drift (sand and gravel) aquifers within this basin can help State and Federal regulatory agencies evaluate any effects on these aquifers that gas-well drilling might produce. This report describes the hydrogeology of the 455-square-mile basin in the southwestern Catskill Mountain region of southeastern New York and includes a detailed surficial geologic map of the basin. Analysis of surficial geologic data indicates that the most widespread surficial geologic unit within the basin is till, which is present as deposits of ablation till in major stream valleys and as thick deposits of lodgment till that fill upland basins. Till and colluvium (remobilized till) cover about 89 percent of the West Branch Delaware River Basin, whereas stratified drift (outwash and ice-contact deposits) and alluvium account for 8.9 percent. The Cannonsville Reservoir occupies about 1.9 percent of the basin area. Large areas of outwash and ice-contact deposits occupy the West Branch Delaware River valley along its entire length. These deposits form a stratified-drift aquifer that ranges in thickness from 40 to 50 feet (ft) in the upper West Branch Delaware River valley, from 70 to 140 ft in the middle West Branch Delaware River valley, and from 60 to 70 ft in the lower West Branch Delaware River valley. The gas-bearing Marcellus Shale underlies the entire West Branch Delaware River Basin and ranges in thickness from 600 to 650 ft along the northern divide of the basin to 750 ft thick along the southern divide. The depth to the top of the Marcellus Shale ranges from 3,240 ft along the northern basin divide to 4,150 ft along the southern basin divide. Yields of wells completed in the aquifer are as high as 500 gallons per minute (gal/min). Springs from fractured sandstone bedrock are an important source of domestic and small municipal water supplies in the West Branch Delaware River Basin and elsewhere in Delaware County. The average yield of 178 springs in Delaware County is 8.5 gal/min with a median yield of 3 gal/min. An analysis of two low-flow statistics indicates that groundwater contributions from fractured bedrock compose a significant part of the base flow of the West Branch Delaware River and its tributaries.

New York↗

Water levels in the aquifers of the Nacatoch Sand of southwestern and northeastern Arkansas and the Tokio Formation of southwestern Arkansas, February–March 2011

The aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation in southwestern Arkansas and the Nacatoch Sand in northeastern Arkansas are sources of water for industrial, public supply, domestic, and agricultural uses. Potentiometric-surface maps were constructed from water-level measurements made in 47 wells completed in the Nacatoch Sand and 45 wells completed in the Tokio Formation during February and March 2011. Aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation are hereafter referred to as the Nacatoch aquifer and the Tokio aquifer, respectively. The direction of groundwater flow in the Nacatoch aquifer in southwestern Arkansas is towards the southeast in Hempstead, Little River, and Miller Counties and east-southeast in Clark and Nevada Counties. A potentiometric high is located within the outcrop area of north-central Hempstead County. Two cones of depression exist in the Nacatoch aquifer, one at Hope in southeastern Hempstead County and one in Clark County. The direction of groundwater flow in the Nacatoch aquifer in northeastern Arkansas generally is towards the southeast. A potentiometric high in the study area is located along the north and northwestern boundaries of the area, but water levels may be higher outside the study area. In northeastern Arkansas, groundwater withdrawals from the Nacatoch aquifer increased by 564 percent from 1965 to 2010. In southwestern Arkansas, groundwater withdrawals from the Nacatoch Sand increased by 125 percent from 1965 to 1980, and withdrawals decreased by 85 percent from 1980 to 2010. In southwestern Arkansas, groundwater withdrawals from the Tokio aquifer increased by 201 percent from 1965 to 1980, and withdrawals decreased by 81 percent from 1980 to 2000. Withdrawals from the Tokio aquifer increased by 291 percent from 2000 to 2005, and withdrawals decreased by 32 percent from 2005 to 2010. The direction of groundwater flow in the Tokio aquifer in southwestern Arkansas generally is towards the south or southeast. The potentiometric high is within the outcrop area in the northern part of the area. Artesian flow exists or is inferred in southeastern Pike, northeastern Hempstead, and northwestern Nevada Counties. One apparent cone of depression might exist northwest of Hope in Hempstead County.

Arkansas↗

Simulation of groundwater flow, 1895–2010, and effects of additional groundwater withdrawals on future stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, central Nebraska—Phase three

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lewis and Clark, Lower Elkhorn, Lower Loup, Lower Platte North, Lower Niobrara, Middle Niobrara, Upper Elkhorn, and the Upper Loup Natural Resources Districts, designed a study to refine the spatial and temporal discretization of a previously modeled area. This updated study focused on a 30,000-square-mile area of the High Plains aquifer and constructed regional groundwater-flow models to evaluate the effects of groundwater withdrawal on stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, Nebraska. The model was calibrated to match groundwater-level and base-flow data from the stream-aquifer system from pre-1940 through 2010 (including predevelopment [pre-1895], early development [1895–1940], and historical development [1940 through 2010] conditions) using an automated parameter-estimation method. The calibrated model then was used to simulate hypothetical development conditions (2011 through 2060). Predicted changes to stream base flow based on simulated changes to groundwater withdrawal will aid in developing strategies for management of hydrologically connected water supplies. Additional wells were simulated throughout the model domain and pumped for 50 years to assess the effect of wells on aquifer depletions, including stream base flow. The percentage of withdrawal for each well after 50 years, which was compensated by aquifer reductions to stream base flow, storage, or evapotranspiration, was computed and mapped. These depletions are influenced by aquifer properties, time, and distance from the well. Stream base-flow depletion results showed that the closer the added well was to a stream, the greatest the effect on the stream base flow. Areas of stream base-flow depletion percentages greater than 80 percent were generally within 1 mile (mi) from the stream. The distance increased to 6 mi near the confluence of the Dismal and Middle Loup Rivers, and the North Loup and Calamus Rivers. The percentage of stream base-flow depletion decreased as the distance from the stream increased. Areas more than 10 mi from the stream generally had a stream base-flow depletion of 10 percent or less. Evapotranspiration depletion was largest in areas closest to streams, specifically in the Elkhorn River watershed. It was also larger in areas of interdunal wetlands within the Sand Hills. Evapotranspiration depletion was negligible in areas greater than 5 mi from a stream, with the exception of interdunal areas in Cherry, Grant, and Arthur Counties. The storage depletion percentage increased as the distance from a stream increased. Storage depletion was largest in areas between streams. Areas experiencing the smallest amount of storage depletion were adjacent to streams. Calibrated model outputs and streamflow depletion analysis are publicly available online. Accuracy of the simulations is affected by input data limitations, system simplifications, assumptions, and resources available at the time of the simulation construction and calibration. Most of the important limitations relate either to data used as simulation inputs or to data used to estimate simulation inputs. Development of the regional simulations focused on generalized hydrogeologic characteristics within the study area and did not attempt to describe variations important to local-scale conditions. These simulations are most appropriate for analyzing groundwater-management scenarios for large areas and during long periods and are not suitable for analysis of small areas or short periods.

Nebraska↗