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USGS2020

The future of sediment transport and streamflow under a changing climate and the implications for long-term resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta

Sedimentation and turbidity have effects on habitat suitability in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta (Bay‐Delta), concerning key species in the bay as well as the ability of the delta marshes to keep pace with sea level rise. A daily rainfall runoff and transport model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the Bay‐Delta for the next century (water years, WY2010–2099). The model was calibrated to historical streamflow and sediment data and applied using 10 Global Climate Models with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) each for WY1980–2099 from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Results indicate average increases in peak streamflow of +58% and +66% for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles, respectively, by mid‐century and +62 and +96% by end‐of‐century. Sediment loads increased by +39% and +69% by end‐of‐century. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) increased on average by +4.6% and +6.7% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by end‐of‐century. Individual scenario results varied, and statistically significant increasing trends of sediment loads to the Bay‐Delta were found for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles and five individual scenarios. Increased suspended sediment loads may have negative effects such as contaminant transport but also have positive effects that help protect against sea level rise, increase turbidity and fish habitat, and sustain wetland habitats in the Bay‐Delta.

California↗
USGS2020

A one‐dimensional model for turbulent mixing in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments

In this paper, we develop and validate a rigorous modeling framework, based on Duhamel's Theorem, for the unsteady one-dimensional vertical transport of a solute across a flat sediment-water interface (SWI) and through the benthic biolayer of a turbulent stream. The modeling framework is novel in capturing the two-way coupling between evolving solute concentrations above and below the SWI and in allowing for a depth-varying diffusivity. Three diffusivity profiles within the sediment (constant, exponentially decaying, and a hybrid model) are evaluated against an extensive set of previously published laboratory measurements of turbulent mass transfer across the SWI. The exponential diffusivity profile best represents experimental observations and its reference diffusivity scales with the permeability Reynolds number, a dimensionless measure of turbulence at the SWI. The depth over which turbulence-enhanced diffusivity decays is of the order of centimeters and comparable to the thickness of the benthic biolayer. Thus, turbulent mixing across the SWI may serve as a universal transport mechanism, supplying the nutrient and energy fluxes needed to sustain microbial growth, and nutrient processing, in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

Lessons from a post-eruption landscape

From March to May 1980, magma rose high into Mount St. Helens (MSH), swelling and—as it turned out—destabilizing its north flank. Scientists knew the volcano had been highly active at times over the past 40,000 years, but the mountain, located amid the Cascade Range in southwestern Washington, had been mostly quiet since the mid-19th century. The collapse of the north flank on 18 May shattered that quiet, triggering a cascade of events that left resounding impressions not only on those who witnessed and studied them but also on the surrounding landscape [Lipman and Mullineaux, 1981; Waitt, 2015]. The eruption of MSH also provided unparalleled opportunities for advancing several disciplines [e.g., Shore et al., 1986; Newhall, 2000; Franklin and MacMahon, 2000]. Although not as conspicuously as in volcanology, the eruption and its aftermath led to an intensification of research investigating biophysical impacts of eruptions and subsequent responses [e.g., Dale et al., 2005; Pierson and Major, 2014; Crisafulli and Dale, 2018]. Long-term research on the biophysical responses at MSH has provided important new insights, challenged long-standing ideas, and provided many societal benefits. The fortieth anniversary of the eruption this year offers a timely opportunity to reflect on these insights and influences. This long-term vantage is important because sustained, place-based studies following landscape disturbances are rare; because the MSH eruption spurred the greatest depth and breadth of multidisciplinary studies of biophysical responses to landscape disturbance; and because these responses created some of the most significant societal challenges to emerge after the eruption. We summarize key biophysical disturbances and responses, highlight salient insights, and suggest actions that can extend the usefulness of these insights to volcanically vulnerable communities worldwide.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Seasonal controls on sediment delivery and hydrodynamics in a vegetated tidally influenced interdistributary island

River deltas are maintained by a continuous supply of terrestrial sediments that provide critical land building material to help sustain and protect vulnerable ecological communities and serve as natural storm protection barriers. Local hydrodynamics are important in determining the degree to which fluvial sediments are removed from the water column and retained on the delta complex. During 2014, we measured hydrodynamics and sediment transport characteristics at one of the world's most rapidly prograding deltas, the Wax Lake delta in Louisiana, USA. We observed waves to be the dominant source of bottom stress for 70% of our observations. Sediment concentration tended to increase with shear stress, but only after stresses exceeded 0.01–0.02 Pa. Significant wave height and bottom stress were substantially reduced after June, when the emergence of American lotus ( Nelumbo lutea ) formed a dense canopy over the intertidal regions of the island splay. Hydrodynamics during these summer vegetated conditions were much more favorable to floc formation, and by extension particle settling, as shown by trends in the Kolmogorov microscale parameter over the course of the measurement campaign. Together, these findings suggest that the timing between peak river discharge and the emergence of vegetation may have a strong influence on rates of progradation in seasonally vegetated delta splays, whereby sediments delivered by flood events that extend late into summer may be governed by hydrodynamics that favor particle deposition, whereas those delivered prior to the summer may be more prone to remain in suspension and bypass the delta complex.

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Mars: Abundant recurring slope lineae (RSL) following the planet-encircling dust event (PEDE) of 2018

Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are dark linear markings on Mars that regrow annually and likely originate from the flow of either liquid water or granular material. Following the great dust storm (or planet-encircling dust event, PEDE) of Mars year (MY) 34, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter/High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment has seen many more candidate RSL than in typical Mars years. They have been imaged at more than 285 unique locations from August 2018 (when the atmosphere was clearing as the PEDE decayed) to August 2019, about half (157) of which are locations where RSL have not been documented previously. In MY34, 150 active RSL sites were identified in the southern middle latitudes (SML, -60° to -30°), whereas an average of 36 active sites were observed in each previous year (MY28–33). Post-PEDE RSL are also present during southern summer over a wider range of latitude, slope aspect, and L s (areocentric longitude of the sun) than in prior years. These RSL sites usually show evidence for recent dust deposition: obscuration of relatively dark areas, an overall brighter and redder surface than in prior years, and dust devil tracks, which indicate dust lifting by several mechanisms. We speculate that dust-lifting processes may initiate and sustain RSL activity. The RSL may form from flows of dust (perhaps clumped) and/or sand that is destabilized by dust movement or directly mobilized by dust devils. If this is the case, then the otherwise puzzling recurrence and year-to-year variability of RSL activity can be at least partly explained. The dust replenishment varies from year to year, which could explain interannual variations in RSL activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2021

Characterization of groundwater recharge and flow in California's San Joaquin Valley from InSAR-observed surface deformation

Surface deformation in California's Central Valley (CV) has long been linked to changes in groundwater storage. Recent advances in remote sensing have enabled the mapping of CV deformation and associated changes in groundwater resources at increasingly higher spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) from the Sentinel‐1 missions, augmented by continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) positioning, to characterize the surface deformation of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV, southern two‐thirds of the CV) for consecutive dry (2016) and wet (2017) water years. We separate trends and seasonal oscillations in deformation time series and interpret them in the context of surface and groundwater hydrology. We find that subsidence rates in 2016 (mean −42.0 mm/yr; peak −345 mm/yr) are twice that in 2017 (mean −20.4 mm/yr; peak −177 mm/yr), consistent with increased groundwater pumping in 2016 to offset the loss of surface‐water deliveries. Locations of greatest subsidence migrated outwards from the valley axis in the wetter 2017 water year, possibly reflecting a surplus of surface‐water supplies in the lowest portions of the SJV. Patterns in the amplitude of seasonal deformation and the timing of peak seasonal uplift reveal entry points and potential pathways for groundwater recharge into the SJV and subsequent groundwater flow within the aquifer. This study provides novel insight into the SJV aquifer system that can be used to constrain groundwater flow and subsidence models, which has relevance to groundwater management in the context of California's 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).

California↗
USGS2021

Substantial declines in salinity observed across the Upper Colorado River Basin during the 20th century, 1929 to 2019

Salinity in the Colorado River Basin causes an estimated $300 to $400 million per year in economic damages in the U.S. To inform and improve salinity‐control efforts, this study quantifies long‐term trends in salinity (dissolved solids) across the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), including time periods prior to the construction of large dams and preceding the implementation of salinity‐control projects. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season was used with datasets of dissolved‐solids and specific‐conductance measurements, collected as early as 1929, to evaluate long‐term trends in dissolved‐solids loads and concentrations in streams from 1929 to 2019 ( n =14). Results indicate that large, widespread, and sustained downward trends in dissolved‐solids concentrations and loads occurred over the last 50 to 90 years. For 12 of the 14 stream sites with significant downward change, median declines of ‐38% (range of ‐14 to ‐57%) and ‐40% (range of ‐9 to ‐65%) were observed for flow‐normalized concentration and load, respectively. Steepest rates of decline occurred from 1980 to 2000, coincident with the initiation of salinity‐control efforts in the 1980s. However, there was a consistent slowing or reversing of downward trends after 2000 even though salinity‐control efforts continued. Significant decreases in salinity occurred as early as the 1940s at some streams, indicating that, in addition to salinity‐control projects, changes in land cover, land use, and/or climate substantially affect salinity transport in the UCRB. Observed dissolved‐solids trends are likely the result of changes to watershed‐related processes, not due to changes in the streamflow regime.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Fitting jet noise similarity spectra to volcano infrasound data

Infrasound (low-frequency acoustic waves) has proven useful to detect and characterize subaerial volcanic activity, but understanding the infrasonic source during sustained eruptions is still an area of active research. Preliminary comparison between acoustic eruption spectra and the jet noise similarity spectra suggests that volcanoes can produce an infrasonic form of jet noise from turbulence. The jet noise similarity spectra, empirically derived from audible laboratory jets, consist of two noise sources: large-scale turbulence (LST) and fine-scale turbulence (FST). We fit the similarity spectra quantitatively to eruptions of Mount St. Helens in 2005, Tungurahua in 2006, and Kīlauea in 2018 using nonlinear least squares fitting. By fitting over a wide infrasonic frequency band (0.05–10 Hz) and restricting the peak frequency above 0.15 Hz, we observe a better fit during times of eruption versus non-eruptive background noise. Fitting smaller overlapping frequency bands highlights changes in the fit of LST and FST spectra, which aligns with observed changes in eruption dynamics. Our results indicate that future quantitative spectral fitting of eruption data will help identify changes in eruption source parameters such as velocity, jet diameter, and ash content which are critical for effective hazard monitoring and response.

Earth and Space Science↗
USGS2021

How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical-deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in-stream transport is projected to increase by 1 - 5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate driven changes in high elevation hydrology have impacts on basin-wide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Flow development and entrainment in turbulent particle-laden jets

Explosive eruptions expel volcanic gases and particles at high pressures and velocities. Within this multiphase fluid, small ash particles affect the flow dynamics, impacting mixing, entrainment, turbulence, and aggregation. To examine the role of turbulent particle behavior, we conducted an analogue experiment using a particle-laden jet. We used compressed air as the carrier fluid, considering turbulent conditions at Reynolds numbers from approximately 5,000 to 20,000. Two different particles were examined: 14-μm diameter solid nickel spheres and 13-μm diameter hollow glass spheres. These resulted in Stokes numbers between 1 and 35 based on the convective scale. The particle mass percentage in the mixture is varied from 0.3% to more than 20%. Based on a 1-D volcanic plume model, these Stokes numbers and mass loadings corresponded to millimeter-scale particle diameters at heights of 4–8 km above the vent during large, sustained eruptions. Through particle image velocimetry, we measured the mean flow behavior and the turbulence statistics in the near-exit region, primarily focusing on the dispersed phase. We show that the flow behavior is dominated by the particle inertia, with high Stokes numbers reducing the entrainment by more than 40%. When applied to volcanic plumes, these results suggest that high-density particles can greatly increase the probability of column collapse.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres↗
USGS2023

Hydration state and rheologic stratification of the lithospheric mantle beneath the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey

We present constraints on the hydration state and rheology of the lithospheric mantle beneath the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ). Peridotite xenoliths from the Biyikali and Çorlu volcanic centers record deformational microstructures consistent with shearing in a lithosphere-scale transcurrent fault system. Analysis by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy indicates that nominally anhydrous phases retain some OH − , but bulk rock concentrations are generally restricted to <50 ppm H 2 O by weight. From the rock microstructure, we determined differential stress magnitude and active deformation mechanism(s); combined with estimates of hydration state, we constrained the rheology. Recrystallized grain size piezometry shows that the mantle beneath the NAFZ sustained differential stresses of 10–20 MPa, largely independent of depth. The dominant deformation mechanism(s) change with depth; xenoliths extracted from shallower depths record evidence for grain size-sensitive creep possibly in the presence of melt. At intermediate depths, both dislocation creep and grain size-sensitive mechanisms were active, and we did not observe evidence for deformation in the presence of melt. The deepest samples were dominated by dislocation creep. The strong temperature sensitivity of creep mechanisms, combined with the low variability in differential stress, contributes to a stratified viscosity profile ranging from 10 18 Pa s for the deepest samples to >10 22 Pa s at shallower depths (assuming a melt-free rheology). Although difficult to quantify from the rock record, melt likely reduced the viscosity of the shallow lithospheric mantle. Vertical stratification in viscosity beneath the NAFZ, the result of melt-present deformation and/or transitions in the dominant deformation mechanism, has important consequences for the seismic cycle of strike-slip fault systems.

North Anatolian fault zone↗
USGS2023

A watershed moment for western U.S. dams

The summer of 2023 is a notable time for water-resource management in the western United States: Glen Canyon Dam, on the Colorado River, turns 60 years old while the largest dam-removal project in history is beginning on the Klamath River. This commentary discusses these events in the context of a changing paradigm for dam and reservoir management in this region. Since the era of large dam building began to wane six decades ago, new challenges have arisen for dam and reservoir management owing to climate change, population increase, reservoir sedimentation, declining safety of aging dams, and more environmentally focused management objectives. Today we also better understand dams' benefits, costs, and environmental impacts, including some that were unforeseen and took decades to become apparent. Where dams have become unsafe, obsolete (e.g., due to excessive reservoir sedimentation), and uneconomical beyond saving, dam removal has become common. The science and practice of dam removal are accelerating rapidly, and some long-term physical and biological response studies are now available. Removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River will be a larger and more complex project than any previous dam removal. The imminency of this project reflects a very different situation for dam and reservoir management than 60 years ago. Looking forward, dam and reservoir management in the western United States and worldwide will require continued collaboration and innovative thinking to meet a wide range of objectives and to manage water resources sustainably for future generations.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2024

Seasonal and species-level water-use strategies and groundwater dependence in dryland riparian woodlands during extreme drought

Drought-induced groundwater decline and warming associated with climate change are primary threats to dryland riparian woodlands. We used the extreme 2012–2019 drought in southern California as a natural experiment to assess how differences in water-use strategies and groundwater dependence may influence the drought susceptibility of dryland riparian tree species with overlapping distributions. We analyzed tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen isotopes collected from two cottonwood species ( Populus trichocarpa and P . fremontii ) along the semi-arid Santa Clara River. We also modeled tree source water δ 18 O composition to compare with observed source water δ 18 O within the floodplain to infer patterns of groundwater reliance. Our results suggest that both species functioned as facultative phreatophytes that used shallow soil moisture when available but ultimately relied on groundwater to maintain physiological function during drought. We also observed apparent species differences in water-use strategies and groundwater dependence related to their regional distributions. P . fremontii was constrained to more arid river segments and ostensibly used a greater proportion of groundwater to satisfy higher evaporative demand. P . fremontii maintained ∆ 13 C at pre-drought levels up until the peak of the drought, when trees experienced a precipitous decline in ∆ 13 C. This response pattern suggests that trees prioritized maintaining photosynthetic processes over hydraulic safety, until a critical point. In contrast, P . trichocarpa showed a more gradual and sustained reduction in ∆ 13 C, indicating that drought conditions induced stomatal closure and higher water use efficiency. This strategy may confer drought avoidance for P . trichocarpa while increasing its susceptibility to anticipated climate warming.

California↗
USGS2024

Next generation public supply water withdrawal estimation for the conterminous United States using machine learning and operational frameworks

Estimation of human water withdrawals is more important now than ever due to uncertain water supplies, population growth, and climate change. Fourteen percent of the total water withdrawal in the United States is used for public supply, typically including deliveries to domestic, commercial, and occasionally including industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water withdrawal. Stewards of water resources in the USA require estimates of water withdrawals to manage and plan for future demands and sustainable water supplies. This study compiled the most comprehensive conterminous United States water withdrawal data set to date and developed a machine learning framework for estimating public supply withdrawals and associated uncertainty for the period 2000–2020. The modeling approach provides service area resolution estimates to allow for annual and monthly water withdrawal estimation while incorporating a complex array of driving factors that include hydroclimatic, demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and land use factors. Model results reveal highly variable and lognormally distributed per-capita water withdrawal, spanning from 30 to 650 gallons per capita per day (GPCD), across community, regional, and national scales, with pronounced seasonal variations. Analysis of estimated withdrawal trends indicates that the national annual average withdrawal experienced a decline at a rate of 0.58 GPCD/year during the period from 2000 to 2020. Model interpretation reveals a complex interplay between public supply withdrawal and key predictors, including population size, warm-season precipitation, counts of large buildings and houses, and areas of urban and commercial land use. The developed models can forecast future public supply driven by various climate, demographic, and socioeconomic scenarios.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

The United States Magnetotelluric Array and the National Impedance Map

The United States Magnetotelluric Array (USMTArray) data set, collected in the years 2006–2024, consists of more than 1,700 long-period magnetotelluric stations covering the entirety of the contiguous United States on a quasi-regular 70 km grid. Funding across multiple federal agencies was critical to sustaining this effort to its completion. Important components of the project included active guidance and participation from the MT community, the open and timely availability of all data, and the application of consistent instrumentation and robust data processing. Together with parallel advancement in the development of publicly available three-dimensional (3D) inversion codes, the USMTArray has revitalized the US magnetotelluric community and increased the visibility of magnetotellurics within the Earth-science community. Taken as a whole, these data are visualized as the National Impedance Map, which, together with a 3D synthesis conductivity model of the nation, reveals the electrical architecture of the contiguous US. USMTArray data are used by researchers worldwide for fundamental and applied studies, including investigations of continental architecture and evolution, estimation of hazards to critical infrastructure due to geomagnetic storms, and assessment of the nation's undiscovered geothermal and mineral resources. We here review the history and development of the project, discuss the challenges and successes in its execution, present the National Impedance Map and synthesis conductivity model, and highlight the breadth of research stemming from this rich data set.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Patterns and drivers of cliff erosion in Big Sur, California, USA using repeat photogrammetry, 2017–2023

Seacliff erosion in steep terrain poses major risks to transportation and critical infrastructure. In Big Sur, California, USA, seacliff erosion threatens the sustainability of the central coast stretch of California State Route 1, a transportation corridor that is critical to the region's economy. Published cliff retreat rates for the region range from 1 to 40 cm yr −1 , highlighting that high-resolution, process-based studies could enhance understanding of the causes of spatial and temporal variability. We quantified cliff erosion and investigated its drivers along ∼13 km of the Big Sur coastline at week–month timescales during the late fall to early spring wet seasons between January 2017 and June 2023 by analyzing 3D point clouds developed from aerial imagery using four-dimensional structure-from-motion (4D SfM) photogrammetry techniques. We calculated cliff face retreat rates of 2.23 ± 3.06 cm yr −1 (mean ±1 σ ), an order of magnitude lower than long-term estimated rates for the region (which included large deep-seated landslides), but in line with short-term rates reported across California. Change detection imagery comparison, cliff profiles through time, and statistical analysis reveal a cyclical cliff evolution process in which erosion by wave action at the cliff base destabilizes the cliff and primes it for subsequent failure during precipitation events. Although more erosion by volume could be attributed to precipitation-induced increases in soil moisture (784 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ) compared with erosion attributed to wave power (282 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ), our observations underscore the coupled nature of these processes in driving cliff evolution, consistent with established theory and observations.

California↗
USGS2025

Multi-stage crustal thickening, surface uplift, and collision in the western Himalaya-Karakoram-Tibet orogen revealed by chemical mohometry

The Himalaya-Karakoram-Tibet (HKT) orogen provides an unrivaled opportunity to study the dynamic linkages between deep and surface processes during collisional orogenesis. However, these efforts are hindered by conflicting interpretations on the number and timing of collisional events, and the timing of crustal thickening and associated surface uplift. Here, we resolve this with quantitative paleo-crustal thickness estimates in the northwestern HKT orogen. We show that: (a) the paleo-Asian margin had thick crust (50–60 km) at least 65 Ma prior to terminal collision, consistent with a continental arc setting, (b) crustal thickening to 60 km or more occurred at ca. 60–50 Ma in the Kohistan-Ladakh arc and by 40–25 Ma in the paleo-Asian margin, indicating a multi-stage Himalayan collision, and (c) modern crustal thicknesses in the northwestern HKT have been sustained since ca. 40–25 Ma suggesting an orogenic steady-state in which crustal thickening, crustal flow, and surface uplift have been balanced by erosion.

Geophysical Research Letters↗