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At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Inferring differential evolutionary processes of plant persistence traits in Northern Hemisphere Mediterranean fire-prone ecosystems

1 Resprouting capacity (R) and propagule-persistence (P) are traits that are often considered to have evolved where there are predictable crown fires. Because several indicators suggest a stronger selective pressure for such traits in California than in the Mediterranean Basin, we hypothesize that plant species should have evolved to become R+ and P+ more frequently in California than in the Mediterranean Basin. 2 To test this hypothesis we studied the phylogenetic association between R and P states in both California and the Mediterranean Basin using published molecular phylogenies. 3 The results suggest that R and P evolved differently in the two regions. The occurrence of the states differs significantly between regions for trait P, but not for trait R. The different patterns (towards R+ and P+ in California and towards R+ and P- in the Mediterranean Basin) are reflected in the higher abundance and the wider taxonomic distribution of species with both persistence traits (R+P+ species) in California. 4 The differential acquisition of fire persistence mechanisms at the propagule level (P+) supports the idea that fire selective pressures has been higher in California than in the Mediterranean Basin. 5 Our comparative phylogenetic-informed analysis contributes to an understanding of the differential role of the Quaternary climate in determining fire persistence traits in different Mediterranean-type ecosystems and, thus, to the debate on the evolutionary convergence of traits. ?? 2006 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2005

A tropical freshwater wetlands: I. Structure, growth, and regeneration

Forested wetlands dominated by Terminalia carolinensis are endemic to Micronesia but common only on the island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia. On Kosrae, these forests occur on Nansepsep, Inkosr, and Sonahnpil soil types, which differ in degree of flooding and soil saturation. We compared forest structure, growth, nutrition, and regeneration on two sites each on Nansepsep and Inkosr soils and one site on the much less common Sonahnpil soil type. Terminalia tree sizes were similar on all three soil types, but forests differed in total basal area, species of smaller trees, and total plant species diversity. Terminalia regeneration was found only on the Inkosr soil type, which had the highest water table levels. Other Terminalia species are relatively light demanding, and T. carolinensis exhibited similar characteristics. It is therefore likely that Terminalia requires periodic, but perhaps naturally rare, stand-replacing disturbances (e.g., typhoons) in order to maintain its dominance, except on the wettest sites, where competition from other species is reduced. Terminalia swamps in the Nansepsep soil type appeared to be at the greatest risk of conversion to other uses, but swamps on all three types may face greater pressure as Kosrae's population increases and the island's infrastructure becomes more developed.

Kosrae↗
USGS2024

Large differences in herbivore performance emerge from simple herbivore behaviors and fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in phytochemistry

Patterns of phytochemistry localisation in plant tissues are diverse within and across leaves. These spatial heterogeneities are important to the fitness of herbivores, but their effects on herbivore foraging and dietary experience remain elusive. We manipulated the spatial variance and clusteredness of a plant toxin in a synthetic diet landscape on which individual caterpillars fed. We monitored caterpillars with cameras across most of their larval development. Caterpillars that fed on diets with a lower spatial variance and more clustered arrangement of toxins had overall worse performance, mostly because those caterpillars ate less, moved more, ingested more toxin, or failed to physiologically acclimate. Using empirically parameterised individual-based models, we found that differences in movement away from, not towards, less toxic food drove a body size-dependent effect of clusteredness. Hence, the spatial pattern of phytochemicals itself, beyond mean concentration, can have important consequences for herbivores through complex interactions with herbivore foraging.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2014

Supplemental feeding alters migration of a temperate ungulate

Conservation of migration requires information on behavior and environmental determinants. The spatial distribution of forage resources, which migration exploits, often are altered and may have subtle, unintended consequences. Supplemental feeding is a common management practice, particularly for ungulates in North America and Europe, and carryover effects on behavior of this anthropogenic manipulation of forage are expected in theory, but have received limited empirical evaluation, particularly regarding effects on migration. We used global positioning system (GPS) data to evaluate the influence of winter feeding on migration behavior of 219 adult female elk (Cervus elaphus) from 18 fed ranges and 4 unfed ranges in western Wyoming. Principal component analysis revealed that the migratory behavior of fed and unfed elk differed in distance migrated, and the timing of arrival to, duration on, and departure from summer range. Fed elk migrated 19.2 km less, spent 11 more days on stopover sites, arrived to summer range 5 days later, resided on summer range 26 fewer days, and departed in the autumn 10 days earlier than unfed elk. Time-to-event models indicated that differences in migratory behavior between fed and unfed elk were caused by altered sensitivity to the environmental drivers of migration. In spring, unfed elk migrated following plant green-up closely, whereas fed elk departed the feedground but lingered on transitional range, thereby delaying their arrival to summer range. In autumn, fed elk were more responsive to low temperatures and precipitation events, causing earlier departure from summer range than unfed elk. Overall, supplemental feeding disconnected migration by fed elk from spring green-up and decreased time spent on summer range, thereby reducing access to quality forage. Our findings suggest that ungulate migration can be substantially altered by changes to the spatial distribution of resources, including those of anthropogenic origin, and that management practices applied in one season may have unintended behavioral consequences in subsequent seasons.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Mid-contract management alters conservation reserve program vegetation in the central and western United States

Disturbances such as grazing, fire, and burrowing are historically important in North American grasslands, and plans for restoring disturbance regimes are often required for successful restoration. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has become the dominant grassland restoration mechanism in many areas, and requires planned disturbances known as mid-contract management (MCM). We recorded evidence of MCM in CRP fields across a 14-state region of the western and central United States, then revisited fields after one to five years to characterize bare ground and vegetative cover and composition using edge-of-road visual surveys. We found a reduced cover of grasses up to five years after MCM, and a concomitant increased cover of flowering forbs and diversity of pollinator-friendly forbs. There was little measurable change in overall plant cover or bare ground cover between one and five years after MCM, though bare soil cover did increase slightly. Baseline tree and shrub covers were very low on average but highly variable due to outliers with high woody cover. After MCM, the presence of woody vegetation remained low and relatively constant. Grazing and haying resulted in a lower probability of noxious grass presence than mowing or disking, but haying and disking were better for inhibiting the presence of noxious forbs. These results show that MCM can be a useful tool for maintaining vegetation quality. The results also point to an important need to understand factors that influence the effects of MCM, including disturbance technique, disturbance frequency, drought, and climate.

Ecological Restoration↗
USGS2021

Submerged aquatic vegetation habitat use of age-0 Florida bass Micropterus floridanus

Hatchery-raised, age-0 Florida bass Micropterus floridanus are commonly used for fish enhancement efforts to support popular recreational fisheries and are ecologically important as both a food source and consumer. Despite their importance and frequent use of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) habitats, critical information is lacking on the specific characteristics of SAV that influence habitat occupancy. Using the SAV species Vallisneria americana and Potamogeton illinoensis , which are native to the southeast USA , and the invasive SAV Hydrilla verticillata , we conducted seven different habitat choice experiments to examine hatchery-raised, age-0 M . floridanus habitat use of different SAV populations (i.e., hydrologically isolated collection sources of varied physical characteristics), population diversity (i.e., increased richness of genotypically and phenotypically variable SAV), species, and species diversity (i.e., increased species richness). Fish spent more time in taller, larger V. americana but did not seem to favor any particular P. illinoensis population, SAV species, or species diversity tested. Additionally, fish spent more time in increased V. americana population diversity when the populations used were randomized, but fish spent more time in decreased population diversity when their favored V. americana population was used in all choices. This research adds additional nuance to our understanding of optimal vegetation for fish habitat use and is informative for future SAV plantings and invasive SAV management aimed at maximizing fish habitat and restoring recreational fisheries.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2014

Legacy data for a northern prairie grassland: Woodworth Study Area, North Dakota, 1963-89

Ecological data commonly become more valuable through time. Such legacy data provide baseline records of past biological, physical, and social information that provide historical perspective and are necessary for assessment of stasis or change. Legacy data collected at the Woodworth Study Area (WSA), a contiguous block of grasslands, croplands, and wetlands covering more than 1,000 hectares of the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, are cataloged and summarized in this study. The WSA is one of the longest researched grassland sites in the Upper Midwest. It has an extensive history of settlement, land use, and management that provides a deeper context for future research. The WSA data include long-term vegetation transect records, land use history, habitat management records, geologic information, wetland hydrology and chemistry information, and spatial images. Substantial parts of these data have not been previously reported. The WSA is representative of many other lands purchased by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the Prairie Pothole Region from the 1930s to the 1970s; therefore, synthesized data from the WSA are broadly applicable to topics of concern in northern grasslands, such as increases in non-native plants, managing for biodiversity, and long-term effects of habitat management. New techniques are also described that were used to preserve these data for future analyses. The data preservation techniques are applicable to any project with data that should be preserved for 100 years or more.

North Dakota↗
USGS2020

Multiple elements of soil biodiversity drive ecosystem functions across biomes

The role of soil biodiversity in regulating multiple ecosystem functions is poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict how soil biodiversity loss might affect human wellbeing and ecosystem sustainability. Here, combining a global observational study with an experimental microcosm study, we provide evidence that soil biodiversity (bacteria, fungi, protists and invertebrates) is significantly and positively associated with multiple ecosystem functions. These functions include nutrient cycling, decomposition, plant production, and reduced potential for pathogenicity and belowground biological warfare. Our findings also reveal the context dependency of such relationships and the importance of the connectedness, biodiversity and nature of the globally distributed dominant phylotypes within the soil network in maintaining multiple functions. Moreover, our results suggest that the positive association between plant diversity and multifunctionality across biomes is indirectly driven by soil biodiversity. Together, our results provide insights into the importance of soil biodiversity for maintaining soil functionality locally and across biomes, as well as providing strong support for the inclusion of soil biodiversity in conservation and management programmes.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2020

Unexpected hybridization reveals the utility of genetics in native plant restoration

Native plant materials (NPMs) are increasingly utilized during the restoration of disturbed plant communities. Here, we analyze next‐generation genetic sequencing data for Hilaria jamesii , a dominant graminoid across drylands of the southwestern United States, and document that the species' only commercially‐available NPM, ‘Viva’, is a hybrid between H. jamesii and its sister species, H. mutica . In fact, hybrids between these species are common where they geographically overlap. Furthermore, we show that the ‘Viva’ hybrid has successfully been moved beyond the hybrid zone and into the core range of H. jamesii . The potential ramifications of introducing novel genetic material into H. jamesii are discussed, as well as the utility of genetic analyses to protect species natural patterns of genetic diversity and help managers make informed decisions regarding the development and deployment of NPMs.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Chihuahua, C↗
USGS2019

The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species

Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua ( Metrosideros polymorpha ), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens ( Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia ) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ‘ōhi‘a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of ‘ōhi‘a. We further modeled the potential distribution of C. lukuohia across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for C. lukuohia to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of C. lukuohia to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai‘i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large ‘ōhi‘a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding C. lukuohia suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to ‘ōhi‘a trees, a precondition for Ceratocystis infection. Given the ongoing spread of C. lukuohia , we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of C. lukuohia as it continues to spread.

Hawaii↗
USGS2003

The impact of grazing on plant fractal architecture and fitness of a mediterranean shrub (Anthyllis cytisoides L.)

1. We examined natural grazing by livestock (sheep and goats) on Albaida Anthyllis cytisoides L. with the aim of determining whether variation in the allometric relationships between plant parts provides a sensitive indicator of the impact of grazing. 2. The intra-individual variation in translatory symmetry with scale and increased complexity of fractal structures reflect environmental disturbance under heavy grazing pressure and lack of grazing. 3. Fitness consequences of grazing were also investigated. Grazing promotes growth and adult survival, and a drop in seed production as a consequence of consumption. In spite of that, total inclusive fitness (population rate of change) tends to increase with grazing. 4. Moderate grazing, while promoting growth, also enhances stability of vegetative structures. The favourable effect of moderate levels of herbivory on A. cytisoides is reflected in the homeostatic maintenance of its translatory symmetry and in the increased complexity of its fractal structures.

Almería↗
USGS2025

The relative influence of geographic and environmental factors on rare plant translocation outcomes

Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species–environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next-generation recruitment and next-generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g. founder population size). Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next-generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next-generation benchmarks. Synthesis and applications . Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2010

Vegetation classification and distribution mapping report: Canyon de Chelly National Monument

Executive Summary: The classification and distribution mapping of the vegetation of Canyon de Chelly National Monument (CACH) and surrounding environment was accomplished through a multi-agency effort between 2003 and 2007. The National Park Service’s Southern Colorado Plateau Network facilitated the team that conducted the work, which comprised the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Biological Science Center and Fort Collins Science Center, Navajo Natural Heritage Program, Northern Arizona University, and NatureServe. The project team described 48 plant communities for CACH—35 of which were described from quantitative classification based on field-relevé data collected in 2004. Five additional plant communities were based on field relevés collected in a previous study. The team derived four additional plant communities from field observations during the photointerpretation phase of the project, and field documented them during accuracy assessment. The National Vegetation Classification Standard served as a conceptual framework for assigning these plant communities to the alliance and association level. Ten of the 48 plant communities were designated “park specials”, that is, plant communities with insufficient data to describe them as new alliances or associations. The project team also developed a spatial vegetation map database representing CACH, with three different map-class schemas: base, group, and management map classes. The base map classes represented the finest level of spatial detail. Photointerpreters delineated initial polygons through manual interpretation of 2003/2004 1:12,000-scale true color aerial photography supplemented by occasional computer screen digitizing on a mosaic of digitized aerial photos. These polygons were labeled with base map classes during photointerpretation. Field visits verified interpretation concepts. The vegetation map database includes • ? 53 base map classes, which consist of associations and park specials classified with the quantitative analysis • ? additional associations noted during photointerpretation • ? non-vegetated land cover, such as infrastructure, land use, and geological land cover. The base map classes consist of 4,718 polygons in the project area. A field-based accuracy assessment of the base map classes showed the overall accuracy to be 50.8% The group map classes represent aggregations of the base map classes, approximating the group level of the National Vegetation Classification Standard, Version 2 (Federal Geographic Data Committee 2008). Terrestrial ecological systems, as described by NatureServe (Comer et al. 2003), were used as a first approximation of the group level. The project team identified 16 group map classes in this project. The overall accuracy of the group map classes was determined using the same accuracy assessment data as for the base map classes. The overall accuracy of the group representation of vegetation was 79.9%. In consultation with park staff, the team developed management map classes that consisted of park-defined groupings of base map classes and were intended to represent a balance between maintaining required accuracy and providing a focus on vegetation of particular interest or import to park managers. The 28 management map classes have an overall accuracy of 77.1%. While the main products of this project are the vegetation classification and the vegetation map database, a number of ancillary geographic information system and digital database products were also produced that can be used independently, or to augment the main products. These products include shapefiles of the location of field-collected data and relational databases of field-collected data.

Report↗
USGS2012

Transport of biologically important nutrients by wind in an eroding cold desert

Wind erosion following fire is an important landscape process that can result in the redistribution of ecologically important soil resources. In this study we evaluated the potential for a fire patch in a desert shrubland to serve as a source of biologically important nutrients to the adjacent, downwind, unburned ecosystem. We analyzed nutrient concentrations (P, K, Ca, Mg, Cu, Fe, Mn, Al) in wind-transported sediments, and soils from burned and adjacent unburned surfaces, collected during the first to second growing seasons after a wildfire that burned in 2007 in Idaho, USA in sagebrush steppe; a type of cold desert shrubland. We also evaluated the timing of potential wind erosion events and weather conditions that might have contributed to nutrient availability in downwind shrubland. Findings indicated that post-fire wind erosion resulted in an important, but transient, addition of nutrients on the downwind shrubland. Aeolian sediments from the burned area were enriched relative to both the up- and down-wind soil and indicated the potential for a fertilization effect through the deposition of the nutrient-enriched sediment during the first, but not second, summer after wildfire. Weather conditions that could have produced nutrient transport events might have provided increased soil moisture necessary to make nutrients accessible for plants in the desert environment. Wind transport of nutrients following fire is likely important in the sagebrush steppe as it could contribute to pulses of resource availability that might, for example, affect plant species differently depending on their phenology, and nutrient- and water-use requirements.

Idaho↗
USGS1996

Channel narrowing and vegetation development following a great plains flood

Streams in the plains of eastern Colorado are prone to intense floods following summer thunderstorms. Here, and in other semiarid and arid regions, channel recovery after a flood may take several decades. As a result, flood history strongly influences spatial and temporal variability in bottomland vegetation. Interpretation of these patterns must be based on understanding the long—term response of bottomland morphology and vegetation to specific floods. A major flood in 1965 on Plum Creek, a perennial sandbed stream, removed most of the bottomland vegetation and transformed the single—thread stream into a wider, braided channel. Channel narrowing began in 1973 and continues today. In 1991, we determined occurrences of 150 vascular plant species in 341 plots (0.5 m 2 ) along a 7—km reach of Plum Creek near Louviers, Colorado. We related patterns of vegetation to elevation, litter cover, vegetative cover, sediment particle size, shade, and year of formation of the underlying surface (based on age of the excavated root flare of the oldest woody plants). Geomorphic investigation determined that Plum Creek fluvial surfaces sort into five groups by year of formation: terraces of fine sand formed before 1965; terraces of coarse sand deposited by the 1965 flood; stable bars formed by channel narrowing during periods of relatively high bed level (1973—1986); stable bars similarly formed during a recent period of low bed level (1987—1990); and the present channel bed (1991). Canonical correspondence analysis indicates a strong influence of elevation and litter cover, and lesser effects of vegetative cover, shade, and sediment particle size. However, the sum of all canonical eigenvalues explained by these factors is less than that explained by an analysis including only the dummy variables that define the five geomorphically determined age groups. The effect of age group is significant even when all five other environmental variables are specified as covariables. Therefore, the process of postflood channel narrowing has a dominant influence on vegetation pattern. Channel narrowing at Plum Creek includes a successional process: annual and perennial plants become established on the channel bed, sediment accretes around the vegetation, and increasing litter cover, shade, and scarcity of water eliminate species that are not rhizomatous perennials. However, successional trajectories of individual surfaces are modified by flow—related fluctuations of the bed level; surfaces deposited by the 1965 flood have had distinct sediment and vegetation since their formation. Species richness is highest on surfaces dating to 1987—1990; the many species restricted to this transitory assemblage are perpetuated by flood—related fluctuations in channel width. Since the 1965 flood, seedling establishment of the dominant trees (genus Populus) has occurred only on low surfaces formed during channel narrowing. Thus, the flood has indirectly promoted Populus establishment over a 26—yr period.

Ecology↗
USGS2021

Is the grass always greener? Land surface phenology reveals differences in peak and season-long vegetation productivity responses to climate and management

Vegetation phenology—the seasonal timing and duration of vegetative phases—is controlled by spatiotemporally variable contributions of climatic and environmental factors plus additional potential influence from human management. We used land surface phenology derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and climate data to examine variability in vegetation productivity and phenological dates from 1989 to 2014 in the U.S. Northwestern Plains, a region with notable spatial heterogeneity in climate, vegetation, and land use. We first analyzed interannual trends in six phenological measures as a baseline. We then demonstrated how including annual-resolution predictors can provide more nuanced insights into measures of phenology between plant communities and across the ecoregion. Across the study area, higher annual precipitation increased both peak and season-long productivity. In contrast, higher mean annual temperatures tended to increase peak productivity but for the majority of the study area decreased season-long productivity. Annual precipitation and temperature had strong explanatory power for productivity-related phenology measures but predicted date-based measures poorly. We found that relationships between climate and phenology varied across the region and among plant communities and that factors such as recovery from disturbance and anthropogenic management also contributed in certain regions. In sum, phenological measures did not respond ubiquitously nor covary in their responses. Nonclimatic dynamics can decouple phenology from climate; therefore, analyses including only interannual trends should not assume climate alone drives patterns. For example, models of areas exhibiting greening or browning should account for climate, anthropogenic influence, and natural disturbances. Investigating multiple aspects of phenology to describe growing-season dynamics provides a richer understanding of spatiotemporal patterns that can be used for predicting ecosystem responses to future climates and land-use change. Such understanding allows for clearer interpretation of results for conservation, wildlife, and land management.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Estimating heterotrophic respiration at large scales: Challenges, approaches, and next steps

Heterotrophic respiration (HR), the aerobic and anaerobic processes mineralizing organic matter, is a key carbon flux but one impossible to measure at scales significantly larger than small experimental plots. This impedes our ability to understand carbon and nutrient cycles, benchmark models, or reliably upscale point measurements. Given that a new generation of highly mechanistic, genomic-specific global models is not imminent, we suggest that a useful step to improve this situation would be the development of “Decomposition Functional Types” (DFTs). Analogous to plant functional types (PFTs), DFTs would abstract and capture important differences in HR metabolism and flux dynamics, allowing modelers and experimentalists to efficiently group and vary these characteristics across space and time. We argue that DFTs should be initially informed by top-down expert opinion, but ultimately developed using bottom-up, data-driven analyses, and provide specific examples of potential dependent and independent variables that could be used. We present an example clustering analysis to show how annual HR can be broken into distinct groups associated with global variability in biotic and abiotic factors, and demonstrate that these groups are distinct from (but complementary to) already-existing PFTs. A similar analysis incorporating observational data could form the basis for future DFTs. Finally, we suggest next steps and critical priorities: collection and synthesis of existing data; more in-depth analyses combining open data with rigorous testing of analytical results; using point measurements and realistic forcing variables to constrain process-based models; and planning by the global modeling community for decoupling decomposition from fixed site data. These are all critical steps to build a foundation for DFTs in global models, thus providing the ecological and climate change communities with robust, scalable estimates of HR.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission. Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [ Cervus Canadensis ] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts. Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands. Synthesis and applications . Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗