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Precipitation-runoff relations and water-quality characteristics at edge-of-field stations, Discovery Farms and Pioneer Farm, Wisconsin, 2003-8

A cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Wisconsin (UW)-Madison Discovery Farms program (Discovery Farms), and the UW-Platteville Pioneer Farm program (Pioneer Farm) was developed to identify typical ranges and magnitudes, temporal distributions, and principal factors affecting concentrations and yields of sediment, nutrients, and other selected constituents in runoff from agricultural fields. Hydrologic and water-quality data were collected year-round at 23 edge-of-field monitoring stations on 5 privately owned Discovery Farms and on Pioneer Farm during water years 2003-8. The studied farms represented landscapes, soils, and farming systems typical of livestock farms throughout southern Wisconsin. Each farm employed a variety of soil, nutrient, and water-conservation practices to help minimize sediment and nutrient losses from fields and to improve crop productivity. This report summarizes the precipitation-runoff relations and water-quality characteristics measured in edge-of-field runoff for 26 "farm years" (aggregate years of averaged station data from all 6 farms for varying monitoring periods). A relatively wide range of constituents typically found in agricultural runoff were measured: suspended sediment, phosphorus (total, particulate, dissolved reactive, and total dissolved), and nitrogen (total, nitrate plus nitrite, organic, ammonium, total Kjeldahl and total Kjeldahl-dissolved), chloride, total solids, total suspended solids, total volatile suspended solids, and total dissolved solids. Mean annual precipitation was 32.8 inches for the study period, about 3 percent less than the 30-year mean. Overall mean annual runoff was 2.55 inches per year (about 8 percent of precipitation) and the distribution was nearly equal between periods of frozen ground (54 percent) and unfrozen ground (46 percent). Mean monthly runoff was highest during two periods: February to March and May to June. Ninety percent of annual runoff occurred between January and the end of June. Event mean concentrations of suspended sediment in runoff during unfrozen-ground periods were significantly higher (p<0.05) than those during frozen-ground periods. Mean annual suspended-sediment yields ranged from about 3 to nearly 5,000 pounds per acre (lb/acre), with a mean yield of 667 lb/acre. Ninety percent of suspended sediment was yielded in runoff during unfrozen-ground periods. May and June alone contributed more than 80 percent of the overall yield. Phosphorus concentrations and yields were also affected by the ground conditions at the time of runoff; however, unlike suspended sediment, phosphorus was usually available for transport in runoff regardless of ground condition. Mean annual total-phosphorus yields ranged from 0.03 to 7.0 lb/acre, with a mean yield of about 2.0 lb/acre. Nitrogen in runoff followed similar patterns to phosphorus in that concentrations were highest during unfrozen-ground periods, yields were highest during months of highest runoff, and speciation was affected by the ground conditions at the time of runoff. Mean annual total-nitrogen yields ranged from 0.11 to 19.2 lb/acre, and the mean was 7.2 lb/acre. Mean monthly total-nitrogen yields were strongly correlated with mean monthly total-phosphorus yields (r 2 = 0.92), indicating that the sources of nitrogen and phosphorus in runoff were likely similar. Analysis of runoff, concentration, and yield data on annual, monthly, and seasonal time scales, when combined with precipitation, soil moisture, soil temperature, and on-farm field-activity information, revealed conditions in which runoff was most likely. The analysis also revealed the effects that field conditions and the timing of field-management activities-most notably, manure applications and tillage-had on the quantity and quality of surface runoff from agricultural fields.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Status of water-level altitudes and long-term and short-term water-level changes in the Chicot and Evangeline (undifferentiated) and Jasper aquifers, greater Houston area, Texas, 2024

Since the early 1900s, groundwater withdrawn from the primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers—has been an important source of water in the greater Houston area, Texas. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of water-level altitudes and water-level changes in these aquifers in the greater Houston area. In this report, the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers are treated as a single aquifer for the purposes of providing annual assessments of regional-scale water-level altitudes and water-level changes over time. In 2024, shaded depictions of estimated water-level altitudes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers (undifferentiated) ranged from about 301 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) to about 184 ft above NAVD 88. The largest decline in water-level altitudes depicted by the 1977–2024 long-term water-level-change map was in south-central Montgomery County. In comparison, the 1990–2024 long-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines in water-level altitudes in an area northwest of The Woodlands and in an area of northern Waller County. The largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1977–2024 is depicted in an area of east-central Harris County, whereas the largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1990–2024 is depicted in an area of central Harris County. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines in several parts of the study area, but these declines are concentrated primarily in northern Fort Bend County, southwestern Harris County, and south-central Montgomery County. The largest rise for 2019–24 is depicted at a well in northern Fort Bend County. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at a well in northern Fort Bend County and a well in west-central Harris County. The largest rise for 2023–24 is depicted at a well in east-central Fort Bend County. In 2024, shaded depictions of estimated water-level altitudes for the Jasper aquifer ranged from about 255 ft below NAVD 88 to about 321 ft above NAVD 88. The 2000–24 long-term water-level-change map depicts the largest water-level decline in an area of central San Jacinto County; the largest rise is depicted in an area of central Grimes County. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines across parts of central and southern Montgomery County and at one well in north-central Harris County. The largest rise for 2019–24 is depicted at a well centered on the Montgomery-Grimes County line. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at two wells in south-central Montgomery County and one well in northwestern Montgomery County on the west side of Lake Conroe. The largest rises during 2023–24 are depicted at one well in northwestern Montgomery County and one well in south-central Montgomery County.

Texas↗

Concentrations and Loads of Selenium in Selected Tributaries to the Colorado River in the Grand Valley, Western Colorado, 2004-2006

The reach of the Colorado River from the Gunnison River confluence to the Utah Border, and tributaries in the Grand Valley, are on the State of Colorado 303(d) list of impaired water bodies because the concentrations of dissolved selenium in these streams exceed the State of Colorado chronic standard of 4.6 micrograms per liter at the 85th percentile level. In response to concerns raised by a local watershed initiative about the issue of selenium in the Grand Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Mesa County and the City of Grand Junction, developed a study to characterize and determine the sources of selenium and how these sources are related to changes in land use. This report describes the methods and results of a study of concentrations and loads of selenium in three tributaries to the Colorado River in the Grand Valley. The study area consists of three subbasins, Persigo Wash, Adobe Creek, and Lewis Wash, each representing transitional agricultural to residential, agricultural, and residential land-use types, respectively. These subbasins represent different land-use types and the tributaries that drain each subbasin contribute moderate to high concentrations and loads of selenium to the Colorado River. Two synoptic-sampling events were conducted in each tributary to characterize variations in water quality during the nonirrigation season. Water samples were collected for analysis of dissolved selenium, total nitrogen, and total dissolved solids (salinity). Streamflow was measured by either the tracer-dilution or standard current-meter method. In Persigo Wash selenium concentrations generally decreased or remained constant in a downstream direction whereas selenium loads increased. Effluent from the Persigo Wash wastewater treatment plant diluted selenium concentrations in Persigo Wash and increased the selenium load. The concentrations and loads of salinity and total nitrogen generally increased downstream in Persigo Wash. Concentrations and loads of selenium correlated well with concentrations and loads of total nitrogen (R2 = 0.80 and 0.83, respectively). Concentrations and loads of total nitrogen also correlated well with streamflow (R2 = 0.89 and 0.99, respectively). In Adobe Creek concentrations and loads of selenium generally increased downstream. The largest selenium loads in Adobe Creek were observed between a 1.6-mile-long reach extending approximately from the Grand Valley Canal to the Main Line Grand Valley Canal, where selenium load increased 0.72 pounds per day. This reach accounted for about 81 percent of the total selenium load at the mouth of Adobe Creek (site AC1). Results from the synoptic sampling in Adobe Creek indicated that there was very little seasonal variation in selenium concentration during the nonirrigation season. Salinity concentrations were more variable than selenium concentrations during the nonirrigation season. The concentrations and loads of salinity and total nitrogen generally increased downstream. Concentrations and loads of selenium correlated well with concentrations and loads of total nitrogen (R2 = 0.89 and 0.98, respectively). Streamflow also was related to concentrations and loads of total nitrogen; results indicated a fair correlation for concentration (R2 = 0.51) and a good correlation for load (R2 = 0.95). In Lewis Wash concentrations and loads of selenium generally increased downstream. Selenium concentrations measured in Lewis Wash were lower than those measured in Persigo Wash or Adobe Creek. Salinity concentrations were similar to those measured in Persigo Wash and Adobe Creek. Salinity concentrations were similar among sites during each synoptic-sampling event. Salinity loads in Lewis Wash were highest during the beginning of the nonirrigation season. Concentrations and loads of total nitrogen generally increased downstream. There was a fair correlation for selenium and total nitrogen concentration (R2 = 0.71). Step-trend analysis

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Travel Times, Streamflow Velocities, and Dispersion Rates in the Yellowstone River, Montana

The Yellowstone River is a vital natural resource to the residents of southeastern Montana and is a primary source of water for irrigation and recreation and the primary source of municipal water for several cities. The Yellowstone River valley is the primary east-west transportation corridor through southern Montana. This complex of infrastructure makes the Yellowstone River especially vulnerable to accidental spills from various sources such as tanker cars and trucks. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a dye-tracer study to determine instream travel times, streamflow velocities, and dispersion rates for the Yellowstone River from Lockwood to Glendive, Montana. The purpose of this report is to describe the results of this study and summarize data collected at each of the measurement sites between Lockwood and Glendive. This report also compares the results of this study to estimated travel times from a transport model developed by the USGS for a previous study. For this study, Rhodamine WT dye was injected at four locations in late September and early October 2008 during reasonably steady streamflow conditions. Streamflows ranged from 3,490 to 3,770 cubic feet per second upstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River and ranged from 6,520 to 7,570 cubic feet per second downstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River. Mean velocities were calculated for each subreach between measurement sites for the leading edge, peak concentration, centroid, and trailing edge at 10 percent of the peak concentration. Calculated velocities for the centroid of the dye plume for subreaches that were completely laterally mixed ranged from 1.83 to 3.18 ft/s within the study reach from Lockwood Bridge to Glendive Bridge. The mean of the completely mixed centroid velocity for the entire study reach, excluding the subreach between Forsyth Bridge and Cartersville Dam, was 2.80 ft/s. Longitudinal dispersion rates of the dye plume for this study ranged from 0.06 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Forsyth Bridge to 2.25 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Calyspo Bridge for subreaches where the dye was completely laterally mixed. A relation was determined between travel time of the peak concentration and time for the dye plume to pass a site (duration). This relation can be used to estimate when the receding concentration of a potential contaminant reaches 10 percent of its peak concentration for accidental spills into the Yellowstone River. Data from this dye-tracer study were used to evaluate velocity and concentration estimates from a transport model developed as part of an earlier USGS study. Comparison of the estimated and calculated velocities for the study reach indicate that the transport model estimates the velocities of the Yellowstone River between Huntley Bridge and Glendive Bridge with reasonable accuracy. Velocities of the peak concentration of the dye plume calculated for this study averaged 10 percent faster than the most probable velocities and averaged 12 percent slower than the maximum probable velocities estimated from the transport model. Peak Rhodamine WT dye concentrations were consistently lower than the transport model estimates except for the most upstream subreach of each dye injection. The most upstream subreach of each dye injection is expected to have a higher concentration because of incomplete lateral mixing. Lower measured peak concentrations for all other sites were expected because Rhodamine WT dye deteriorates when exposed to sunlight and will sorb onto the streambanks and stream bottom. Velocity-streamflow relations developed by using routine streamflow measurements at USGS gaging stations and the transport model can be used to estimate mean streamflow velocities throughout a range of streamflows. The variation in these velocity-streamflow relations emphasizes the uncertainty in estimating the mean streamflow veloc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Quality characteristics of ground water in the Ozark aquifer of northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma, 2006-07

Because of water quantity and quality concerns within the Ozark aquifer, the State of Kansas in 2004 issued a moratorium on most new appropriations from the aquifer until results were made available from a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Kansas Water Office. The purposes of the study were to develop a regional ground-water flow model and a water-quality assessment of the Ozark aquifer in northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma (study area). In 2006 and 2007, water-quality samples were collected from 40 water-supply wells completed in the Ozark aquifer and spatially distributed throughout the study area. Samples were analyzed for physical properties, dissolved solids and major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and selected isotopes. This report presents the results of the water-quality assessment part of the cooperative study. Water-quality characteristics were evaluated relative to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards. Secondary Drinking-Water Regulations were exceeded for dissolved solids (11 wells), sulfate and chloride (2 wells each), fluoride (3 wells), iron (4 wells), and manganese (2 wells). Maximum Contaminant Levels were exceeded for turbidity (3 wells) and fluoride (1 well). The Maximum Contaminant Level Goal for lead (0 milligrams per liter) was exceeded in water from 12 wells. Analyses of isotopes in water from wells along two 60-mile long ground-water flow paths indicated that water in the Ozark aquifer was at least 60 years old but the upper age limit is uncertain. The source of recharge water for the wells along the flow paths appeared to be of meteoric origin because of isotopic similarity to the established Global Meteoric Water Line and a global precipitation relation. Additionally, analysis of hydrogen-3 (3H) and carbon-14 (14C) indicated that there was possible leakage of younger ground water into the lower part of the Ozark aquifer. This may be caused by cracks or fissures in the confining unit that separates the upper and lower parts of the aquifer, poorly constructed or abandoned wells, or historic mining activities. Analyses of major ions in water from wells along the flow paths indicated a transition from freshwater in the east to saline water in the west. Generally, ground water along flow paths evolved from a calcium magnesium bicarbonate type to a sodium calcium bicarbonate or a sodium calcium chloride bicarbonate type as water moved from recharge areas in Missouri into Kansas. Much of this evolution occurred within the last 20 to 25 miles of the flow paths along a water-quality transition zone near the Kansas-Missouri State line and west. The water quality of the Kansas part of the Ozark aquifer is degraded compared to the Missouri part. Geophysical and well-bore flow information and depth-dependent water-quality samples were collected from a large-capacity (1,900-2,300 gallons per minute) municipal-supply well to evaluate vertical ground-water flow accretion and variability in water-quality characteristics at different levels. Although the 1,050-foot deep supply well had 500 feet of borehole open to the Ozark aquifer, 77 percent of ground-water flow entering the borehole came from two 20-foot thick rock layers above the 1,000-foot level. For the most part, water-quality characteristics changed little from the deepest sample to the well-head sample, and upwelling of saline water from deeper geologic formations below the well was not evident. However, more saline water may be present below the bottom of the well.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Assessment of dissolved-selenium concentrations and loads in the lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, as part of the Selenium Management Program, from 2011 to 2016

The Gunnison Basin Selenium Management Program implemented a water-quality monitoring network in 2011 in the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado. Selenium is a trace element that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains and can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other harmful effects. This report presents the percentile values of selenium because regulatory agencies in Colorado make decisions based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Water Act Section 303(d) that uses percentile values of concentration. Also presented are dissolved-selenium loads at 18 sites in the lower Gunnison River Basin for water years (WYs) 2011–2016 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2016). Annual dissolved-selenium loads were calculated for five sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. Annual dissolved-selenium loads for WY 2011 through WY 2016 ranged from 179 and 391 pounds (lb) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 11,100 and 17,300 lb at Gunnison River near Grand Junction (herein called Whitewater), respectively. Instantaneous loads were calculated for five sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and 13 ancillary sites where discrete water-quality sampling also took place, using discrete water-quality samples and the associated discharge measurements collected during the period. Median instantaneous loads ranged from 0.01 pound per day (lb/d) at Smith Fork near Lazear to 33.0 lb/d at Whitewater. Mean instantaneous loads ranged from 0.06 lb/d at Smith Fork near Lazear to 36.2 lb/d at Whitewater. Most tributary sites in the basin had a median instantaneous dissolved-selenium load of less than 20.0 lb/day. In general, dissolved-selenium loads at Gunnison River main-stem sites showed an increase from upstream to downstream. The State of Colorado water-quality standard for dissolved selenium of 4.6 micrograms per liter (µg/L) was compared to the 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium at selected sites. Annual 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium were calculated for the five core sites having USGS streamflow-gaging stations using estimated dissolved-selenium concentrations from linear regression models. The 85th-percentile concentrations for WYs 2011–2016 based on this method ranged from 0.62 µg/L and 1.1µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 12.1 µg/L and 18.7 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Delta. The 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium also were calculated for sites with sufficient data using water-quality samples collected during WYs 2011–2016. The annual 85th-percentile concentrations based on the discrete samples ranged from 0.16 µg/L and 0.17 µg/L at Gunnison River below Gunnison Tunnel to 62.2 µg/L and 170 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. A trend analysis was completed for Whitewater to determine if dissolved-selenium loads are increasing or decreasing. The trend analysis indicates a decrease of 9,100 lb from WY 1986 to WY 2016, a 40.8 percent reduction during the time period. The trend analysis for the annual dissolved-selenium load for WY 1994 to WY 2016 indicates a decrease of 6,300 lb per year, or 33.3 percent.

Colorado↗

Generalized sediment budgets of the Lower Missouri River, 1968–2014

Sediment budgets of the Lower Missouri River were developed in a study led by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The scope of the study included the development of a long-term (post-impoundment, 1968–2014) average annual sediment budget and selected annual, monthly, and daily sediment budgets for a reach and period that adequate data were available. Included in the analyses were 31 main-stem and tributary stations of the Lower Missouri River and two Mississippi River stations—the Mississippi River below Grafton, Illinois, and the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri. Long-term average annual suspended-sediment loads of Missouri River main-stem stations ranged from 0.33 million tons at the Missouri River at Yankton, South Dakota, station to 71.2 million tons at Missouri River at Hermann, Mo., station. Gaged tributary gains accounted for 9–36 percent of the local reach budgets and cumulative gaged tributary contributions accounted for 84 percent of the long-term average suspended-sediment load of the Missouri River at Hermann, Mo., station. Although the sediment budgets for seven defined main-stem reaches generally were incomplete—missing bedload, reach storage, and ungaged tributary contributions—the budget residuals (net result of sediment inputs and outputs) for six of the seven reaches ranged from -7.0 to 1.7 million tons, or from -9.2 to 4.0 percent of the reach output suspended-sediment load, and were within the 10 percent reported measurement error of annual suspended-sediment loads for large rivers. The remaining reach, downstream from Gavin’s Point Dam, extended from Yankton, S. Dak., to Sioux City, Iowa, and had a budget residual of -9.8 million tons, which was -88 percent of the suspended-sediment load at Sioux City. The Lower Missouri River reach from Omaha, Nebraska, to Nebraska City, Nebr., had periods of concurrent sediment data for each primary budget component with which to analyze and determine a suspended-sediment budget for selected annual, monthly, and daily time increments. The temporal changes in the cumulative annual budget residuals were poorly correlated with the comparatively steady 1968–2011 annual stage trends at the Missouri River at Nebraska City, Nebr., station. An accurate total sediment budget is developed by having concurrent data available for all primary suspended and bedload components for a reach of interest throughout a period. Such a complete budget, with concurrent record for suspended-sediment load and bedload components, is unavailable for any reach and period in the Lower Missouri River. The primary data gaps are in bedload data, and also in suspended-sediment gains and losses including ungaged tributary inputs and sediment storage. Bedload data gaps in the Missouri River Basin are much more prevalent than suspended-sediment data gaps, and the first step in the development of reach bedload budgets is the establishment of a standardized bedload monitoring program at main-stem stations. The temporal changes in flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations analyzed at main-stem Missouri River stations indicated an overall downward change in concentrations between 1968 and 2014. Temporary declines in flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations during and following large floods were evident but generally returned to near pre-flood values within about 6 months. Data uncertainties associated with the development of a sediment budget include uncertainties associated with the collection of suspended-sediment and bedload data and the computation of suspended-sediment loads. These uncertainties vary depending on the frequency of data collection, the variability of conditions being represented by the discrete samples, and the statistical approach to suspended-sediment load computations. The coefficients of variation of suspended-sediment loads of Missouri River tributary stations for 1968–2014 were greater, 75.0 percent, than the main-stem stations, 47.1 percent. The lower coefficient of variation at main-stem stations compared to tributaries, primarily is the result of the lower variability in streamflow and sediment discharge identified at main-stem stations. To obtain similar accuracy between suspended-sediment loads at main-stem and tributary stations, a longer period of record is required of the tributary stations. During 1968–2014, however, the Missouri River main-stem station record was much more complete (87 percent) than the tributary station record (28 percent).

Missouri River Basin↗

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater conditions of the Ararat Basin in Armenia

Armenia is a landlocked country located in the mountainous Caucasus region between Asia and Europe. It shares borders with the countries of Georgia on the north, Azerbaijan on the east, Iran on the south, and Turkey and Azerbaijan on the west. The Ararat Basin is a transboundary basin in Armenia and Turkey. The Ararat Basin (or Ararat Valley) is an intermountain depression that contains the Aras River and its tributaries, which also form the border between Armenia and Turkey and divide the basin into northern and southern regions. The Ararat Basin also contains Armenia’s largest agricultural and fish farming zone that is supplied by high-quality water from wells completed in the artesian aquifers that underlie the basin. Groundwater constitutes about 40 percent of all water use, and groundwater provides 96 percent of the water used for drinking purposes in Armenia. Since 2000, groundwater withdrawals and consumption in the Ararat Basin of Armenia have increased because of the growth of aquaculture and other uses. Increased groundwater withdrawals caused decreased springflow, reduced well discharges, falling water levels, and a reduction of the number of flowing artesian wells in the southern part of Ararat Basin in Armenia. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) began a cooperative study in Armenia to share science and field techniques to increase the country’s capabilities for groundwater study and modeling. The purpose of this report is to describe the hydrogeologic framework and groundwater conditions of the Ararat Basin in Armenia based on data collected in 2016 and previous hydrogeologic studies. The study area includes the Ararat Basin in Armenia. This report was completed through a partnership with USAID/Armenia in the implementation of its Science, Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships effort through the Advanced Science and Partnerships for Integrated Resource Development program and associated partners, including the Government of Armenia, Armenia’s Hydrogeological Monitoring Center, and the USAID Global Development Lab and its GeoCenter. The hydrogeologic framework of the Ararat Basin includes several basin-fill stratigraphic units consisting of interbedded dense clays, gravels, sands, volcanic basalts, and andesite deposits. Previously published cross sections and well lithologic logs were used to map nine general hydrogeologic units. Hydrogeologic units were mapped based on lithology and water-bearing potential. Water-level data measured in the water-bearing hydrogeologic units 2, 4, 6, and 8 in 2016 were used to create potentiometric surface maps. In hydrogeologic unit 2, the estimated direction of groundwater flow is from the west to north in the western part of the basin (away from the Aras River) and from north to south (toward the Aras River) in the eastern part of the basin. In hydrogeologic unit 4, the direction of groundwater flow is generally from west to east and north to south (toward the Aras River) except in the western part of the basin where groundwater flow is toward the north or northwest. Hydrogeologic unit 6 has the same general pattern of groundwater flow as unit 4. Hydrogeologic unit 8 is the deepest of the water-bearing units and is confined in the basin. Groundwater flow generally is from the south to north (away from the Aras River) in the western part of the basin and from west to east and north to south (toward the Aras River) elsewhere in the basin. In addition to water levels, personnel from Armenia’s Hydrogeological Monitoring Center also measured specific conductance at 540 wells and temperature at 2,470 wells in the Ararat Basin using U.S. Geological Survey protocols in 2016. The minimum specific conductance was 377 microsiemens per centimeter (μS/cm), the maximum value was 4,000 μS/cm, and the mean was 998 μS/cm. The maximum water temperature was 24.2 degrees Celsius. An analysis between water temperature and well depth indicated no relation; however, spatially, most wells with cooler water temperatures were within the 2016 pressure boundary or in the western part of the basin. Wells with generally warmer water temperatures were in the eastern part of the basin. Samples were collected from four groundwater sites and one surface-water site by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2016. The stable-isotope values were similar for all five sites, indicating similar recharge sources for the sampled wells. The Hrazdan River sample was consistent with the groundwater samples, indicating the river could serve as a source of recharge to the Ararat artesian aquifer.

Ararat Basin↗

Suspended-sediment yields and stream-channel processes on Judy's Branch watershed in the St. Louis Metro East region in Illinois

Judy's Branch watershed, a small basin (8.64 square miles) in the St. Louis Metro East region in Illinois, was selected as a pilot site to determine suspended-sediment yields and stream-channel processes in the bluffs and American Bottoms (expansive low-lying valley floor in the region). Suspended-sediment and stream-chan-nel data collected and analyzed for Judy's Branch watershed are presented in this report to establish a baseline of data for water-resource managers to evaluate future stream rehabilitation and manage-ment alternatives. The sediment yield analysis determines the amount of sediment being delivered from the watershed and two subwatersheds: an urban tributary and an undeveloped headwater (pri-marily agricultural). The analysis of the subwater-sheds is used to compare the effects of urbanization on sediment yield to the river. The stream-channel contribution to sediment yield was determined by evaluation of the stream-channel processes operat-ing on the streambed and banks of Judy's Branch watershed. Bank stability was related to hydrologic events, bank stratigraphy, and channel geometry through model development and simulation. The average suspended-sediment yield from two upland subwatersheds (drainage areas of 0.23 and 0.40 sq.mi. was 1,163 tons per square mile per year (tons/sq.mi.-year) between July 2000 and June 2004. The suspended-sediment yield at the Route 157 station was 2,523 tons/sq.mi.-year, near the outlet of Judy's Branch watershed (drainage area = 8.33 sq.mi.). This is approximately 1,360 tons/sq.mi.-year greater than the average at the upland stations for the same time period. This result is unexpected in that, generally, the suspended-sediment yield decreases as the watershed area increases because of sediment stored in the channel and flood plain. The difference indicates a possible increase in yield from a source, such as bank retreat, and supports the concept that land-use changes increase stream-flows that may in turn result in higher rates of bank retreat. Utilizing both bank-rod data and resurveyed cross-section data, it was determined that approxi-mately half of the suspended- sediment yield at Route 157 during July 2000-June 2004 came from bank retreat. Given that bank retreat can be a substantial portion of the sediment yield, understanding bank stability processes is important. Bank stability can be assessed mathematically by computing the factor of safety, which is defined by the ratio of the shear strength (resisting force) along the failure surface and the shear stress (driving gravitational force). Once the factor of safety falls below one, the bank theoretically becomes unstable. Bank-stability conditions were related to hydrologic events, bank type, and channel geometry through model develop-ment and simulation. The most common type of bank in the watershed consists of cohesive alluvial soil deposits overlying a stiff glacial till. A stabil-ity chart for different bank types was developed using a bank-stability analysis. Banks steeper than 70 degrees and higher than from 10 to 11.5 feet (depending on bank type) become at risk for mass failure in the watershed under conditions that pro-mote saturation of the bank and a sudden drop in the river level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeologic framework, groundwater movement, and water budget of the Kitsap Peninsula, west-central Washington

This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system on the Kitsap Peninsula, and includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeologic framework, groundwater recharge and discharge, groundwater levels and flow directions, seasonal groundwater-level fluctuations, interactions between aquifers and the surface‑water system, and a water budget. The Kitsap Peninsula is in the Puget Sound lowland of west-central Washington, is bounded by Puget Sound on the east and by Hood Canal on the west, and covers an area of about 575 square miles. The peninsula encompasses all of Kitsap County, the part of Mason County north of Hood Canal, and part of Pierce County west of Puget Sound. The peninsula is surrounded by saltwater and the hydrologic setting is similar to that of an island. The study area is underlain by a thick sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits that overlie sedimentary and volcanic bedrock units that crop out in the central part of the study area. Geologic units were grouped into 12 hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers, confining units, and an underlying bedrock unit. A surficial hydrogeologic unit map was developed and used with well information from 2,116 drillers’ logs to construct 6 hydrogeologic sections and unit extent and thickness maps. Unconsolidated aquifers typically consist of moderately to well-sorted alluvial and glacial outwash deposits of sand, gravel, and cobbles, with minor lenses of silt and clay. These units often are discontinuous or isolated bodies and are of highly variable thickness. Unconfined conditions occur in areas where aquifer units are at land surface; however, much of the study area is mantled by glacial till, and confined aquifer conditions are common. Groundwater in the unconsolidated aquifers generally flows radially off the peninsula in the direction of Puget Sound and Hood Canal. These generalized flow patterns likely are complicated by the presence of low-permeability confining units that separate discontinuous bodies of aquifer material and act as local groundwater-flow barriers. Groundwater-level fluctuations observed during the monitoring period (2011–12) in wells completed in unconsolidated hydrogeologic units indicated seasonal variations ranging from 1 to about 20 feet. The largest fluctuation of 33 feet occurred in a well that was completed in the bedrock unit. Streamgage discharge measurements made during 2012 indicate that groundwater discharge to creeks in the area ranged from about 0.41 to 33.3 cubic feet per second. During 2012, which was an above-average year of precipitation, the groundwater system received an average of about 664,610 acre-feet of recharge from precipitation and 22,122 acre-feet of recharge from return flows. Most of this annual recharge (66 percent) discharged to streams, and only about 4 percent was withdrawn from wells. The remaining groundwater recharge (30 percent) left the groundwater system as discharge to Hood Canal and Puget Sound.

Washington↗

Estimated effects of pumping on groundwater storage and Walker River stream efficiencies in Smith and Mason Valleys, west-central Nevada

The Walker River originates in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and flows nearly 160 miles to its terminus at Walker Lake in west-central Nevada. The river provides a source of irrigation water for tens of thousands of acres of agricultural lands in California and Nevada and is the principal source of inflow to Walker Lake. Extraction of groundwater for agricultural use became prevalent in the late 1950s and early 1960s to supplement irrigation demands not met by surface-water diversions during times of drought. There is growing concern that continued groundwater withdrawals within the Walker River Basin are likely contributing to depleted streamflow of the Walker River and the long-term depletion of groundwater storage in the basin. This report documents changes in groundwater storage-volume and trends in Walker River stream efficiency, a measure of change in flow due to gaining or losing conditions, in the two largest agricultural valleys in the Walker River Basin, Smith and Mason Valleys, for a multi-decade period. Groundwater-level maps from previous studies were used for the beginning (1970) and middle (2006) points of this study. Groundwater levels measured from 1991–95 and 2016–20 were used to construct median groundwater-level maps that represented conditions in 1995 and 2020. Valley wide groundwater-level change was calculated by comparing groundwater-level maps for the periods 1970–95, 1996–2006, and 2007–20 and by observing the overall change from 1970 to 2020. Groundwater storage-volume change was calculated using groundwater-level change and previously defined specific yield values. Between 1970 and 2020, groundwater storage-volume declined 287,600 acre-feet in Smith Valley and 269,000 acre-feet in Mason Valley. Using groundwater storage-volume decline and annual groundwater pumpage rates, a maximum groundwater pumpage rate can be computed to support management of water resources. In Smith Valley, groundwater pumping in excess of 22,300 acre-feet per year would likely result in groundwater storage decline. In Mason Valley, groundwater pumping in excess of 75,200 acre-feet per year would likely result in groundwater storage decline. Stream efficiency was calculated using continuous streamflow data and monthly diversion volumes on two reaches: (1) the West Walker River in Smith Valley, from 1948 to 2020 and (2) the Walker River in Mason Valley, from 1958 to 2020. Stream efficiency during non-irrigation season in Smith and Mason Valleys declined at a statistically significant rate of 1.1 and 0.6 percent per year, respectively. Trends in stream efficiency corresponded to occurrence of prolonged drought, deviation from average annual streamflows, and total groundwater pumpage. Long-term declines in groundwater storage-volume and stream efficiency demonstrate that the alluvial aquifer system is becoming increasingly depleted, such that the river can no longer replenish groundwater storage while simultaneously balancing groundwater and surface-water withdrawals. The introduction of supplemental groundwater pumpage was intended to offset surface-water deficits during dry years; however, pumpage occurs even in years when average or above average streamflows meet surface-water demands. Reliance on supplemental groundwater pumpage has resulted in widespread groundwater storage-volume decline and decreased stream efficiency. With each successive drought cycle, the ability of Walker River to sustain streamflows and convey water downstream has diminished. Above average wet periods have a marginal and short-lived effect on rebounding the groundwater levels outside of the river corridor. Moreover, if the trend continues, each future drought cycle may further reduce groundwater supplies and that may further decrease streamflow reliability.

Nevada↗

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Annual trace-metal load estimates and flow-weighted concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc, in the Spokane River basin, Idaho and Washington, 1999-2004

Streamflow and trace-metal concentration data collected at 10 locations in the Spokane River basin of northern Idaho and eastern Washington during 1999-2004 were used as input for the U.S. Geological Survey software, LOADEST, to estimate annual loads and mean flow-weighted concentrations of total and dissolved cadmium, lead, and zinc. Cadmium composed less than 1 percent of the total metal load at all stations; lead constituted from 6 to 42 percent of the total load at stations upstream from Coeur d’Alene Lake and from 2 to 4 percent at stations downstream of the lake. Zinc composed more than 90 percent of the total metal load at 6 of the 10 stations examined in this study. Trace-metal loads were lowest at the station on Pine Creek below Amy Gulch, where the mean annual total cadmium load for 1999–2004 was 39 kilograms per year (kg/yr), the mean estimated total lead load was about 1,700 kg/yr, and the mean annual total zinc load was 14,000 kg/yr. The trace-metal loads at stations on North Fork Coeur d’Alene River at Enaville, Ninemile Creek, and Canyon Creek also were relatively low. Trace-metal loads were highest at the station at Coeur d’Alene River near Harrison. The mean annual total cadmium load was 3,400 kg/yr, the mean total lead load was 240,000 kg/yr, and the mean total zinc load was 510,000 kg/yr for 1999–2004. Trace-metal loads at the station at South Fork Coeur d’Alene River near Pinehurst and the three stations on the Spokane River downstream of Coeur d’Alene Lake also were relatively high. Differences in metal loads, particularly lead, between stations upstream and downstream of Coeur d’Alene Lake likely are due to trapping and retention of metals in lakebed sediments. LOADEST software was used to estimate loads for water years 1999–2001 for many of the same sites discussed in this report. Overall, results from this study and those from a previous study are in good agreement. Observed differences between the two studies are attributable to streamflow differences in the two regression models, 1999–2001 and 1999-2004. Flow-weighted concentrations (FWCs) calculated from the estimated loads for 1999–2004 were examined to aid interpretation of metal load estimates, which were influenced by large spatial and temporal variations in streamflow. FWCs of total cadmium ranged from 0.04 micrograms per liter (µg/L) at Enaville to 14 µg/L at Ninemile Creek. Total lead FWCs were lowest at Long Lake (1.3 µg/L) and highest at Ninemile Creek (120 µg/L). Elevated total lead FWCs at Harrison confirmed that the high total lead loads at this station were not simply due to higher streamflow. Conversely, relatively low total lead loads combined with high total lead FWCs at Ninemile and Canyon Creeks reflected low streamflow but high concentrations of total lead. Very low total lead FWCs (1.3 to 2.7 µg/L) at the stations downstream of Coeur d’Alene Lake are a result both of deposition of lead-laden sediments in the lake and dilution by additional streamflow. Total zinc FWCs also demonstrated the effect of streamflow on load calculations, and highlighted source areas for zinc in the basin. Total zinc FWCs at Canyon and Ninemile Creeks, 1,600 µg/L and 2,200 µg/L, respectively, were by far the highest in the basin but contributed among the lowest total zinc loads due to their relatively low streamflow. Total zinc FWCs ranged from 38 to 67 µg/L at stations downstream of Coeur d’Alene Lake, but total zinc load estimates at these stations were relatively high because of high mean streamflow compared to other stations in the basin. Long-term regression models for 1991 to 2003 or 2004 were developed and annual trace-metal loads and FWCs were estimated for Pinehurst, Enaville, Harrison, and Post Falls to better understand the variability of metal loading with time. Long-term load estimates are similar to the results for 1999‑2004 in terms of spatial distribution of metal loads throughout the basin. LOADEST results for 1991-2004 indicated that statistically significant downward temporal trends for dissolved and total cadmium, dissolved zinc, and total lead were occurring at Pinehurst, Enaville, Harrison, and Post Falls. Additionally, data for Enaville and Post Falls showed significant downward trends for dissolved lead and total zinc loads; Harrison total zinc loads also decreased with time. The Mann-Kendall trend test results agreed with the LOADEST trend results in most cases, but gave contradictory results for total zinc at Pinehurst and at Post Falls. Long- and short-term load and flow-weighted concentration estimates yielded valuable information about metal storage and transport processes, and demonstrated that water quality data are a great aid in understanding these processes.

Idaho, Washington↗

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater conditions in Georgia, 2010–2011

The U.S. Geological Survey collects groundwater data and conducts studies to monitor hydrologic conditions, better define groundwater resources, and address problems related to water supply, water use, and water quality. In Georgia, water levels were monitored continuously at 186 wells during calendar year 2010 and at 181 wells during calendar year 2011. Because of missing data or short periods of record (less than 3 years) for several of these wells, a total of 168 wells are discussed in this report. These wells include 17 in the surficial aquifer system, 19 in the Brunswick aquifer system and equivalent sediments, 70 in the Upper Floridan aquifer, 16 in the Lower Floridan aquifer and underlying units, 10 in the Claiborne aquifer, 1 in the Gordon aquifer, 11 in the Clayton aquifer, 14 in the Cretaceous aquifer system, 2 in Paleozoic-rock aquifers, and 8 in crystalline-rock aquifers. Data from the well network indicate that water levels generally declined during the 2010 through 2011 calendar-year period, with water levels declining in 158 wells and rising in 10. Water levels declined over the period of record at 106 wells, increased at 56 wells, and remained relatively constant at 6 wells. In addition to continuous water-level data, periodic water-level measurements were collected and used to construct potentiometric-surface maps for the Upper Floridan aquifer in Camden, Charlton, and Ware Counties, Georgia, and adjacent counties in Florida during May–June 2010, and in the following areas in Georgia: the Brunswick area during August 2010 and August 2011, in the Albany–Dougherty County area during November 2010 and November 2011, and in the Augusta–Richmond County area during October 2010 and August 2011. In general, water levels in these areas were lower during 2011 than during 2010; however, the configuration of the potentiometric surfaces in each of the areas showed little change. Groundwater quality in the Floridan aquifer system is monitored in the Albany, Savannah, and Brunswick areas of Georgia. In the Albany area, nitrate as nitrogen concentrations in the Upper Floridan aquifer during 2011 generally decreased from 2010; however, concentrations in two wells remained above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) 10-milligrams-per-liter (mg/L) drinking-water standard. In the Savannah area, specific conductance and chloride concentrations were measured in water samples from discrete depths in two wells completed in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Data from the two wells indicate that chloride concentrations in the Upper Floridan aquifer showed little change during calendar years 2010 through 2011 and remained below the 250 mg/L USEPA secondary drinking-water standard. During calendar years 2010 through 2011, chloride concentrations in the Lower Floridan aquifer increased slightly at Tybee Island and Skidaway Island, remaining above the drinking-water standard. In the Brunswick area, maps showing the chloride concentration of water in the Upper Floridan aquifer constructed using data collected from 32 wells during August 2010 and from 30 wells during August 2011 indicate that chloride concentrations remained above the USEPA secondary drinking-water standard in an approximately 2-square-mile area. During calendar years 2010 through 2011, chloride concentrations generally decreased in over 70 percent of the wells sampled during 2011, with a maximum decrease of 200 mg/L in a well located in the north-central part of the Brunswick area.

Georgia↗

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.) . Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and improve existing nowcasts, restructuring monitoring activities to accommodate future uncertainties in funding and resources.

Great Lakes↗

Borehole deviation and correction factor data for selected wells in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, has maintained a water-level monitoring program at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) since 1949. The purpose of the program is to systematically measure and report water-level data to assess the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer and long term changes in groundwater recharge, discharge, movement, and storage. Water-level data are commonly used to generate potentiometric maps and used to infer increases and (or) decreases in the regional groundwater system. Well deviation is one component of water-level data that is often overlooked and is the result of the well construction and the well not being plumb. Depending on measured slant angle, where well deviation generally increases linearly with increasing slant angle, well deviation can suggest artificial anomalies in the water table. To remove the effects of well deviation, the USGS INL Project Office applies a correction factor to water-level data when a well deviation survey indicates a change in the reference elevation of greater than or equal to 0.2 ft. Borehole well deviation survey data were considered for 177 wells completed within the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, but not all wells had deviation survey data available. As of 2016, USGS INL Project Office database includes: 57 wells with gyroscopic survey data; 100 wells with magnetic deviation survey data; 11 wells with erroneous gyroscopic data that were excluded; and, 68 wells with no deviation survey data available. Of the 57 wells with gyroscopic deviation surveys, correction factors for 16 wells ranged from 0.20 to 6.07 ft and inclination angles (SANG) ranged from 1.6 to 16.0 degrees. Of the 100 wells with magnetic deviation surveys, a correction factor for 21 wells ranged from 0.20 to 5.78 ft and SANG ranged from 1.0 to 13.8 degrees, not including the wells that did not meet the correction factor criteria of greater than or equal to 0.20 ft. Forty-seven wells had gyroscopic and magnetic deviation survey data for the same well. Datasets for both survey types were compared for the same well to determine whether magnetic survey data were consistent with gyroscopic survey data. Of those 47 wells, 96 percent showed similar correction factor estimates (≤ 0.20 ft) for both magnetic and gyroscopic well deviation surveys. A linear comparison of correction factor estimates for both magnetic and gyroscopic deviation well surveys for all 47 wells indicate good linear correlation, represented by an r-squared of 0.88. The correction factor difference between the gyroscopic and magnetic surveys for 45 of 47 wells ranged from 0.00 to 0.18 ft, not including USGS 57 and USGS 125. Wells USGS 57 and USGS 125 show a correction factor difference of 2.16 and 0.36 ft, respectively; however, review of the data files suggest erroneous SANG data for both magnetic deviation well surveys. The difference in magnetic and gyroscopic well deviation SANG measurements, for all wells, ranged from 0.0 to 0.9 degrees. These data indicate good agreement between SANG data measured using the magnetic deviation survey methods and SANG data measured using gyroscopic deviation survey methods, even for surveys collected years apart.

Idaho↗

Geohydrologic Investigations and Landscape Characteristics of Areas Contributing Water to Springs, the Current River, and Jacks Fork, Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri

The Ozark National Scenic Riverways (ONSR) is a narrow corridor that stretches for approximately 134 miles along the Current River and Jacks Fork in southern Missouri. Most of the water flowing in the Current River and Jacks Fork is discharged to the rivers from springs within the ONSR, and most of the recharge area of these springs is outside the ONSR. This report describes geohydrologic investigations and landscape characteristics of areas contributing water to springs and the Current River and Jacks Fork in the ONSR. The potentiometric-surface map of the study area for 2000-07 shows that the groundwater divide extends beyond the surface-water divide in some places, notably along Logan Creek and the northeastern part of the study area, indicating interbasin transfer of groundwater between surface-water basins. A low hydraulic gradient occurs in much of the upland area west of the Current River associated with areas of high sinkhole density, which indicates the presence of a network of subsurface karst conduits. The results of a low base-flow seepage run indicate that most of the discharge in the Current River and Jacks Fork was from identified springs, and a smaller amount was from tributaries whose discharge probably originated as spring discharge, or from springs or diffuse groundwater discharge in the streambed. Results of a temperature profile conducted on an 85-mile reach of the Current River indicate that the lowest average temperatures were within or downstream from inflows of springs. A mass-balance on heat calculation of the discharge of Bass Rock Spring, a previously undescribed spring, resulted in an estimated discharge of 34.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), making it the sixth largest spring in the Current River Basin. The 13 springs in the study area for which recharge areas have been estimated accounted for 82 percent (867 ft3/s of 1,060 ft3/s) of the discharge of the Current River at Big Spring during the 2006 seepage run. Including discharge from other springs, the cumulative discharge from springs was over 90 percent of the river discharge at most of the spring locations, and was 92 percent at Big Spring and at the lower end of the ONSR. The discharge from the 1.9-mile long Pulltite Springs Complex measured in the 2006 seepage run was 88 ft3/s. Most of this (77 ft3/s) was from the first approximately 0.25 mi of the Pulltite Springs Complex. It has been estimated that the annual mean discharge from the Current River Springs Complex is 125 ft3/s, based on an apparent discharge of 50 ft3/s during a 1966 U.S. Geological Survey seepage run. However, a reinterpretation of the 1966 seepage run data shows that the discharge from the Current River Springs Complex instead was about 12.6 ft3/s, and the annual mean discharge was estimated to be 32 ft3/s, substantially less than 125 ft3/s. The 2006 seepage run showed a gain of only 12 ft3/s from the combined Round Spring and Current River Springs Complex from the mouth of Sinking Creek to 0.7 mi upstream from Root Hollow. The 2006 temperature profile measurements did not indicate any influx of spring discharge throughout the length of the Current River Springs Complex. The spring recharge areas with the largest number of identified sinkholes are Big Spring, Alley Spring, and Welch Spring. The spring recharge areas with the largest number of sinkholes per square mile of recharge area are Alley Spring, Blue Spring (Jacks Fork), Welch Spring, and Round Spring and the Current River Springs Complex. Using the currently known locations of losing streams, the Big Spring recharge area has the largest number of miles of losing stream, and the Bass Rock Spring recharge area has the largest number of miles of losing stream per unit recharge area. The spring recharge areas with the most open land and the least forested land per unit recharge area are Blue Spring (Jacks Fork), Welch Spring, Montauk Springs, and Alley Spring. The spring recharge areas with the least amount

Scientific Investigations Report↗