Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Analysis of Water-Quality Trends for Selected Streams in the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program, Michigan, 1998-2005

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began a long-term monitoring program to evaluate the water quality of most watersheds in Michigan. Major goals of this Water-Chemistry Monitoring Program were to identify streams exceeding or not meeting State or Federal water-quality standards and to assess if constituent concentrations reflecting water quality in these streams were increasing or decreasing over time. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2005 were analyzed to identify potential trends. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 31 sites across Michigan, 28 of which had sufficient data to analyze for trends. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test within the computer program ESTREND. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the state was for chloride. Chloride trends were detected at 8 of the 28 sites; trends at 7 sites were increasing and the trend at 1 site was decreasing. Although no trends were detected for various nitrogen species or phosphorus, these constituents were detected at levels greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations for nutrients in water. The results of the trend analysis will help to establish a baseline to evaluate future changes in water quality in Michigan streams.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Trends in Water Quality in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, water-quality data for 334 streams in eight States of the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends from 1973 to 2005. Forty-four U.S. Geological Survey sites were examined for trends in pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen, and in concentrations of dissolved solids, suspended sediment, chloride, sodium, sulfate, silica, potassium, dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen, total ammonia, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. An additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval database were tested for trends in total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the 1975-2004 and 1993-2004 periods. The seasonal Kendall test or Tobit regression was used to detect trends. Concentrations of dissolved constituents have increased in the Southeast during the last 30 years. Specific conductance increased at 62 percent and decreased at 3 percent of the sites, and pH increased at 31 percent and decreased at 11 percent of the sites. Decreasing trends in total nitrogen were detected at 49 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 10 percent of the sites. Ammonia concentrations decreased at 27 percent of the sites and increased at 6 percent of the sites. Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations increased at 29 percent of the sites and decreased at 10 percent of the sites. These results indicate that the changes in stream nitrogen concentrations generally coincided with improved municipal wastewater-treatment methods. Long-term decreasing trends in total phosphorus were detected at 56 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 8 percent of the sites. Concentrations of phosphorus have decreased over the last 35 years, which coincided with phosphate-detergent bans and improvements in wastewater treatment that were implemented beginning in 1972. Multiple regression analysis indicated a relation between changes in atmospheric inputs and agricultural practices, and changes in water quality. A long-term water-quality and landscape trends-assessment network for the Southeast is needed to assess changes in water quality over time in response to variations in population, agricultural, wastewater, and landscape variables.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius and Grand Rivers). The increase in total suspended solids concentrations could be because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Most trace element data examined in the study were highly censored and could not be used for flow-adjusted trend analyses. Water-quality conditions were assessed to explore relations between data from sites and to the State water-quality standards where applicable for selected constituents. Streamflow varied at each site because of drainage area, land use, and groundwater inputs. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature were similar at all sites except the urban site located on Wilson Creek. Specific conductance was similar between the most northern (South Fabius and Grand River sites) and the most southern sites (Current and Elk River sites). Total suspended solids concentrations were near the method reporting level at all sites, except the northern sites. Streams in northern Missouri are more turbid than streams in southern Missouri and are affected by large volumes of sediment deposition because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Geometric means of Escherichia coli were calculated from the recreational seasons within the study period. Only the Grand River site exceeded the whole-body-contact standard for frequently used waters. The South Fabius and Grand River sites and the Wilson Creek site had statistically larger densities of both fecal indicator bacteria types than the remaining sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Comparison of load estimation techniques and trend analysis for nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw Basin, northwestern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma, 2002-10

The City of Tulsa, Oklahoma, uses water from Lake Eucha and Spavinaw Lake in the Eucha-Spavinaw basin of northwestern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma for public water supply. Increases in algal biomass, which cause taste and odor problems in drinking water produced from the lakes, may be attributable to increases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in the lakes and in streams discharging to the lakes. To evaluate transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in this basin, loads and temporal trends were evaluated for five streamflow-gaging stations in the Spavinaw and Beaty Creek basins. Two approaches were used to develop regression equations for estimation of loads and yields of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment. The first approach used regression equations referred to as daily mean load (DM L ) regressions, developed from water-quality samples and daily mean streamflow data collected from 2002 through 2010 at five streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. This approach was updated to compare loading results with those used in previous investigations. The second approach used regression equations, referred to as instantaneous continuous (INST C ) regressions, developed from continuous measurements of physical water-quality constituents (specific conductance, temperature, and turbidity, and streamflow data) obtained from 2004 through 2010 to estimate loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment at two of the streamflow-gaging stations, Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., and Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. Daily, annual, and mean annual loads estimated from these two regression methods were compared for the period 2005–10. Based on estimates obtained using DM L regressions, mean annual loads of 1,640,000 pounds of nitrogen, 99,900 pounds of phosphorus, and 116,000,000 pounds of sediment were transported into Lake Eucha from the Spavinaw and Beaty Creek basins. Estimated annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus delivered to Lake Eucha from the Spavinaw and Beaty Creek basins during 2002–10 were 2.5 to 7.8 percent less, respectively, than the loads of those constituents discharged to Lake Eucha from 2002–09, indicating that nitrogen and phosphorus loads in 2010 were less than loads typical for the period 2002–09. Daily, annual, and mean annual load estimates varied substantially, depending on streamflow conditions and the independent variables used to develop regressions. Daily and annual loads estimated from INST C regressions that included turbidity, streamflow, temperature, specific conductance, and seasonality fit better with the field data than loads estimated from DM L regressions that included streamflow, seasonality, and time. Loads estimated from the INST C regression generally were greater than those estimated from the DM L regression. Relative percent differences in the mean annual total nitrogen load estimated by the INST C and DM L regressions were within 2 percent for Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, and Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. The relative percent difference between the two types of regressions for estimates of mean annual total phosphorus loads at the two streamflow-gaging stations was 27.7 for Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., and only -2.6 percent for Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. The relative percent difference between mean annual suspended-sediment loads at the streamflow-gaging stations was -38.6 percent for Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., and -122.7 percent for Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. The DM L regression may have substantially underestimated phosphorus load at the Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., streamflow-gaging station in wet years and overestimated sediment load at both streamflow-gaging stations in wet years. Temporal trends in flow-adjusted nitrate-nitrogen, nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations were analyzed for the five streamflow-gaging stations for the period 2001–10. No significant trends were observed for nitrate plus nitrite-nitrogen or total nitrogen concentrations at any streamflow-gaging station. There were significant upward trends in phosphorus concentrations in water samples collected during base-flow conditions at the Spavinaw Creek near Maysville, Okla., streamflow-gaging station and during runoff conditions for the Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla., streamflow-gaging station (3.5 to 4.2 percent per year). There were significant downward trends in phosphorus concentrations in base-flow and runoff samples collected at the Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Sycamore, and Colcord, Okla., streamflow-gaging stations (-4.9 to -12.9 percent per year). There were significant downward trends in suspended-sediment concentration at the Spavinaw Creek near Maysville, and Sycamore, Okla., and the Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla., streamflow-gaging stations (-1.5 to -1.8 percent per year). No significant trends were detected in suspended-sediment concentration for the Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, and Colcord, Okla., streamflow-gaging stations. Possible causes for downward trends in phosphorus concentrations include decreases in phosphorus discharges from a wastewater-treatment plant upstream from the Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Okla., streamflow-gaging station, and implementation of best management practices in the basin. Downward trends in sediment concentrations may be related to effects of best management practices in the basin.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2014

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Missouri River Watershed↗
USGS2018

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated. In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

Michigan↗
USGS2019

Trends in streamflow and concentrations and flux of nutrients and total suspended solids in the Upper White River at Muncie, near Nora, and near Centerton, Indiana

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy, completed a study to estimate and assess trends in streamflow and annual mean concentrations and flux of nutrients (nitrate plus nitrite, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus) and total suspended solids at three USGS streamgages (hereafter referred to as “study gages”) on the Upper White River at Muncie (USGS station 03347000), near Nora (USGS station 03351000), and near Centerton (USGS station 03354000), Indiana. Water-quality data used in the analyses were collected by several agencies between calendar years 1991 and 2017, and streamflow (discharge) data were collected by the USGS. For most of the water-quality constituents, there were suitable data to facilitate an analysis of the 26-year period extending from calendar years 1991 to 2017 (water years 1992 to 2017); however, shorter analytical periods were necessary for total Kjeldahl nitrogen for the study gages at Muncie and near Centerton and for total suspended solids for the study gage near Centerton. Temporal trends in streamflows at the study gages for the period extending from water years 1978 to 2017 were assessed using Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends (EGRET) and Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests. With just one exception, the annual maximum and mean daily streamflows and the annual minimum 7-day mean streamflows at the study gages demonstrated upward trends (increasing streamflows) in the EGRET analyses. The exception was the annual 7-day minimum streamflow at the study gage near Nora, which indicated no trend. Mann-Kendall tests also indicated that the average trend for the annual maximum daily, annual mean daily, and annual 7-day minimum streamflow statistics between water years 1978 and 2017 was upward at each of the study gages; however, only the trends in the annual mean daily streamflows at the study gage at Muncie and the annual maximum daily streamflows at the study gages near Nora and near Centerton were statistically significant at a 0.05 probability level. The Pettitt tests indicated that a statistically significant step trend (abrupt change) in annual mean daily streamflows occurred at each of the study gages around water year 2001. The seasonal distributions of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations at the study gages were evaluated to identify patterns and other distinguishing characteristics by examining boxplots of concentrations as a function of month of the year. Seasonal distributions of nitrate plus nitrite concentrations and total suspended solids concentrations differed from each other but were generally similar among the three study gages for a given constituent. Median concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite were highest during the January–June months, whereas median concentrations of total suspended solids were highest during June and July. Seasonal distributions of total phosphorus concentrations were similar at the study gages near Nora and near Centerton, but the seasonal distribution was noticeably different at the study gage at Muncie, which had monthly median concentrations that were substantially lower than at the two downstream study gages (near Nora and near Centerton). The seasonal distribution of total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations differed in pattern among the three study gages; however, in general, some of the higher monthly median total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations at each study gage were associated with the late spring and summer periods. The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method implemented in EGRET was used to estimate water-year annual mean daily concentrations and flux of nutrients and total suspended solids, as well as estimates of concentrations and flux that were “normalized” to remove the effect of year-to-year variation in streamflow. The approximate coefficients of determination for the WRTDS regression models ranged from a high of 0.82 for total phosphorus for the study gage near Centerton to a low of 0.19 for nitrate plus nitrite for the study gage near Nora. Loads and yields of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen were estimated for analytical periods consisting of the longest periods of concurrent record at the three study gages. Loads of each of the constituents increased sequentially from the most upstream study gage to the most downstream study gage; however, the same was not true for yields. The highest yields of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen occurred at the most upstream study gage (at Muncie); however, the highest yield of nitrate plus nitrite occurred at the most downstream study gage (near Centerton). WRTDS bootstrap tests were used to assess the magnitude, direction, and likelihood of changes in annual flow-normalized mean daily concentrations and flux of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen at the study gages between water years 1997 and 2017. Changes in flow-normalized concentrations and flux of the constituents between water years 1997 and 2017 were mostly downward (decreasing). The exceptions were likely to highly likely upward (increasing) changes in (1) flow-normalized annual mean daily concentration and annual flux for total suspended solids and total phosphorus at the study gage at Muncie, (2) flow-normalized annual mean daily total phosphorus concentration at the study gage near Centerton, (3) flow-normalized annual flux of total phosphorus at the study gage near Centerton, and (4) flow-normalized annual mean daily nitrate plus nitrite concentration at the study gage near Centerton. Although an upward change in flow-normalized nitrate plus nitrite concentrations was likely at the study gage near Centerton, flow-normalized annual flux of nitrate plus nitrite at that study gage was determined to have a highly likely downward change. EGRET and Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends Confidence Intervals (EGRETci) analyses can be used to improve our understanding of how concentrations and flux change as functions of time and streamflow, as well as provide information on how the relations between streamflow and constituent concentrations have changed within the calendar year between any 2 years included in the analyses. Examples of those uses, illustrating changes between calendar years 1992 and 2017, were given for total suspended solids concentrations at the study gage near Nora and for nitrate plus nitrite concentrations at the study gage near Centerton.

Indiana↗
USGS2021

Load estimation and trend analysis for nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area, northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, 2011–18

Lake Eucha is a source of water for public supply and recreation for the residents of Tulsa and other municipalities in northeastern Oklahoma. Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek flow into Lake Eucha and drain about 388 square miles of agricultural and forested land in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Beginning in the 1990s, eutrophication of Lake Eucha characterized by excessive algal blooms resulted in taste and odor problems associated with lake water when it is used for public supply. The predominant sources of phosphorus in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area were identified by previous investigators as runoff from fertilized agricultural areas (nonpoint sources) and treated effluent from a wastewater-treatment plant (point source). To further evaluate the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the City of Tulsa, estimated the loads and computed temporal trends of these constituents from water-quality and streamflow data collected at five USGS streamgages in the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins. Estimates and comparisons of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins to Lake Eucha during 2011–18 were made by using different types of regression equations. The first type of regression equation is referred to as “daily mean load regression equations” and was developed from water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples and daily mean streamflow data collected at five USGS streamgages. The second type of regression equation is referred to as “instantaneous continuous load regression equations.” In addition to water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples, continuous real-time (every 15 minutes) measurements of physicochemical properties (specific conductance, water temperature, and turbidity), and continuous streamflow data were used to estimate instantaneous continuous loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment at two of the same five streamgages where daily mean loads were estimated. The use of these two types of regression equations was documented by previous investigators who estimated loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the study area by using data collected during 2002–10. The regression equations used to estimate constituent loads that were based on water-quality data obtained from periodic water-quality samples and continuous water-quality and streamflow data (instantaneous continuous load regression equations) better described the temporal variance in constituent loads compared to the regression equations based only on periodic water-quality data and daily mean streamflows (daily mean load regression equations). Estimates computed using instantaneous continuous load regression equations showed that mean annual loads of 1,844,000 pounds of total nitrogen, 150,300 pounds of total phosphorus, and 78,735,000 pounds of suspended sediment were transported into Lake Eucha from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins. Most of the estimated mean annual loads from the Beaty Creek and Spavinaw Creek subbasins entered Lake Eucha during runoff conditions, including about 80 percent of total nitrogen, 95 percent of total phosphorus, and 98 percent of suspended sediment. Daily, annual, and mean annual load estimates varied substantially, depending on streamflow conditions and the independent variables used to develop the regression equations. Daily and annual loads estimated from instantaneous continuous load regression equations that included specific conductance, water temperature, turbidity, and streamflow described the variability in the field data better than did loads estimated from daily mean load regression equations that included streamflow, seasonality, and time. Loads estimated from the instantaneous continuous load regression equations generally were greater than those estimated from the daily mean load regression equations. Temporal trends in total nitrogen concentrations showed statistically significant (probability value less than or equal to 0.05) downward trends during both base-flow and runoff conditions at all five USGS streamgages except for the streamgage 07191179 Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Ark. Temporal trends in total phosphorus concentrations were not consistent between streamgages over the study period, showing upward and downward trends throughout the Eucha-Spavinaw drainage area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base-flow and runoff conditions showed statistically significant upward trends at USGS streamgages 07191160 Spavinaw Creek near Maysville, Ark., and 07191222 Beaty Creek near Jay, Okla. Total phosphorus concentrations showed a statistically significant downward trend during base-flow conditions at USGS streamgage 071912213 Spavinaw Creek near Colcord, Okla., and in both base-flow and runoff conditions at USGS streamgage 07191179 Spavinaw Creek near Cherokee City, Ark. Temporal trends in suspended-sediment concentrations were not consistent between streamgages over the study period and were similar to temporal trends in total phosphorus concentrations.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Seasonal and long-term clarity trend assessment of Lake Tahoe, California–Nevada

The clarity of Lake Tahoe, observed using a Secchi disk on a regular basis since the late 1960s, continues to be a sentinel metric of lake health. Water clarity is influenced by physical and biological processes and has declined in the five decades of monitoring, revealing differences between summer (June–September) and winter (December–March). This document summarizes key findings of a study of Lake Tahoe water clarity, including long-term variability and the relative importance of several influencing variables and processes. This study, prepared in cooperation with the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, focused on (1) an apparent divergence in clarity trends between summer and winter periods, (2) observed changes in in-lake physical and ecological variables that may influence or control seasonal and annual clarity trends, and (3) five research hypotheses regarding lake clarity that were developed by Lake Tahoe management agencies. Previously collected data were used to complete this study. Trend analysis confirmed that winter clarity stabilized (that is, there is no longer a statistically significant trend up or down) during the last 20 years. Evaluation of clarity for selected months in the 50-year Secchi disk clarity dataset showed that only two summer months, July and August, had statistically significant decreases in clarity from 2000–19. Different subsets of available data were analyzed to reveal the presence or absences of trends for each season, decade, and month. Five hypotheses related to lake clarity were part of the study described by this report. Hypothesis 1 stated that clarity is controlled predominantly by the distribution and volumetric density of fine particles in suspension. This hypothesis was studied using available data describing in-lake fine (0–20 micrometers) particles from 2008–19. Water clarity was negatively correlated with in-lake particle abundance, with particles in the 1.0-4.6 μm range having the greatest effect, consistent with light-scattering theory. Estimated abundances of diatoms of the genus Cyclotella also were found to be negatively correlated with clarity. Data limitations precluded a complete investigation of hypothesis 2, which stated that the observed improvements in winter water clarity are a response to decreasing fine suspended-sediment concentrations in the lake resulting from load reductions from upland sources in and near urbanized areas. Data describing fine-sediment loading from urban areas to the lake were only available since 2014, and only once or twice per month. A slight, statistically significant, negative correlation was identified between urban fine-particle loading and monthly lake clarity with a 4-month lag. Particle abundance in monitored streams is highly correlated with simultaneous particle abundance in the lake. Hypothesis 3 stated that changing hydrodynamic conditions in the lake are increasing thermal stability and resistance to mixing. Trend analyses performed on stability index and buoyancy frequency time series computed from long-term observations of lake temperatures support the hypothesis that hydrodynamic conditions have evolved since 1969 to increase the lake’s resistance to mixing. The date of maximum mixing in winter has become progressively earlier in the year. Lake density stratification, defined using the stability index, is commencing earlier in the year and extending a month longer than in the early years of the monitoring program. Hypothesis 4 stated that the trend of decreasing summer clarity is a result of earlier, prolonged, and more intense stratification. Statistically significant correlations were found between summer clarity and (1) date of onset of stratification, (2) duration of stratification, and (3) buoyancy frequency. Hypothesis 5 stated that ecological (food web) interactions are causing changes in the trends of seasonal or annual clarity; data supporting hypothesis 5 were limited to examples from other systems and to intermittent monitoring of Lake Tahoe and Emerald Bay. The resulting narrative assessment was motivated by a 6-year study of Mysis shrimp disappearance and return in Emerald Bay. The available data and a large body of published literature are consistent with the inference that Mysis shrimp-induced food web changes are causing changes in the trends of seasonal or annual clarity. This food-web study focused on the relations between introduced Mysis shrimp, the native cladocerans ( Daphnia and Bosmina ) that were largely eliminated following Mysis introduction, and the effect on fine particles within the lake. The records of Mysis and other zooplankton data for Lake Tahoe are episodic and have large gaps. Consequently, statistical analyses could not be conducted to compare zooplankton data with other variables. The long-term record, however, indicates that the key effect was a change to the phytoplankton assemblage, where larger diatoms disappeared, likely due to Mysis grazing, only to be replaced by Cyclotella that are an order-of-magnitude smaller and have increased the abundance and volumetric density of total fine particles in suspension (biotic and abiotic).

California↗
USGS2022

Water-quality data and trends in the Rapid Creek Basin, South Dakota, 1970–2020

Surface-water-quality data in the Rapid Creek Basin in South Dakota were compiled to assess basic trends in the water quality of Rapid Creek. Spatial and temporal patterns in water quality were described for major ions, sediment, total suspended solids, nutrients, field measurements, bacteria, and select metals for the period of 1970–2020, and a water-quality trend analysis was completed for sites with enough data for selected constituents. Major ions and total suspended solids had higher median concentrations in the lower basin (downstream from the city of Rapid City) relative to the upper and middle basins. Nutrient concentrations were generally low, and increased concentrations were only detected at the sites downstream from the City of Rapid City Water Reclamation Facility. Fecal indicator bacteria ( Escherichia coli and fecal coliform) concentrations were highest downstream from the main urbanized area of Rapid City. Water-quality trends were analyzed for total dissolved solids, specific conductance, calcium, magnesium, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen for the period of 1979–2019. Concentrations for major ions and total dissolved solids typically changed by less than 15 percent. Total dissolved solids concentrations upstream from Rapid City were generally decreasing, whereas concentrations downstream were generally increasing. The flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total dissolved solids at three sites upstream from Rapid City decreased overall by 3–5 percent, and concentrations at two sites downstream from Rapid City increased by at least 7 percent between 1979 and 2019. Trends in specific conductance in the Rapid Creek Basin were mixed with alternating increasing and decreasing trends at many of the sites between 1979 and 2014. Total suspended solids concentrations were observed to be decreasing at two sites analyzed for trends. Concentrations in total phosphorus were observed to be decreasing at every site analyzed for trends between 1989 and 2014. Significant downward trends in total Kjeldahl nitrogen were observed at two sites in the lower Rapid Creek Basin for the trend period of 1999–2019. The decreases in total suspended solids and nutrient concentrations in the Rapid Creek Basin could be related to several processes such as the implementation of a stormwater management plan in Rapid City, improvements to the water reclamation facility downstream from Rapid City, and residual climatic effects.

South Dakota↗
USGS2023

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗
USGS2025

Characterization of suspended sediment flux and streamflow trends in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1998 through 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated long-term suspended sediment flux and streamflow datasets for temporal trends (monotonic and step trends) at 10 streamgage sites within the Fountain Creek watershed in central Colorado using the Mann-Kendall test (monotonic trend) and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (step trend). Data were collected in cooperation with Colorado Springs Stormwater Enterprise. In this study, 10 sites with long-term suspended sediment records were evaluated during their operational periods, which ranged from 1998 through 2022. To assess how stream behavior might relate to shifts in suspended sediment transport, the Richards-Baker flashiness index, a measure of flashiness, was evaluated for each site. The Richards-Baker flashiness index was calculated for the same months as streamflow and suspended sediment (April through September) using all available streamflow data for a given site. Additionally, cumulative double-mass curves were developed to define temporal variation in the relation between streamflow and suspended sediment loads. This was completed by assessing differences in slopes before and after an observed break in the double-mass curve plots. Five streamgage sites showed statistically significant ( p <0.05) negative trends for suspended sediment flux, and nonsignificant decreases were indicated at the other five sites. The statistically significant negative trends are distributed across the watershed and include smaller tributaries and the main stem of Fountain Creek closer to its confluence with the Arkansas River. Such a broad distribution of negative trends is most likely an indication of improved water quality in the watershed with regards to suspended sediment. Assessing causes for the decreases in suspended sediment loads is beyond the scope of this report; however, spatially distributed bank erosion control projects, stormflow retention projects in the watershed, and changes in climate and storm patterns could be some of the potential drivers of the suspended sediment load trends in this watershed. The flashiness of the streamflow was assessed and can be dismissed on the basis of this study as a potential driver of trends in suspended sediment flux because the magnitude of changes was found to be negligible at all sites.

Colorado↗
USGS2003

Trends in suspended-sediment concentration at selected stream sites in Kansas, 1970–2002

Knowledge of erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment relative to streams and impoundments is important to those involved directly or indirectly in the development and management of water resources. Monitoring the quantity of sediment in streams and impoundments is important because: (1) sediment may degrade the water quality of streams for such uses as municipal water supply, (2) sediment is detrimental to the health of some species of aquatic animals and plants, and (3) accumulation of sediment in water-supply impoundments decreases the amount of storage and, therefore, water available for users. One of the objectives of the Kansas Water Plan is to reduce the amount of sediment in Kansas streams by 2010. During the last 30 years, millions of dollars have been spent in Kansas watersheds to reduce sediment transport to streams. Because the last evaluation of trends in suspended-sediment concentrations in Kansas was completed in 1985, 14 sediment sampling sites that represent 10 of the 12 major river basins in Kansas were reestablished in 2000. The purpose of this report is to present the results of time-trend analyses at the reestablished sediment data-collection sites for the period of about 1970–2002 and to evaluate changes in the watersheds that may explain the trends. Time-trend tests for 13 of 14 sediment sampling sites in Kansas for the period from about 1970 to 2002 indicated that 3 of the 13 sites tested had statistically significant decreasing suspended-sediment concentrations; however, only 2 sites, Walnut River at Winfield and Elk River at Elk Falls, had trends that were statistically significant at the 0.05 probability level. Increasing suspended-sediment concentrations were indicated at three sites although none were statistically significant at the 0.05 probability level. Samples from five of the six sampling sites located upstream from reservoirs indicated decreasing suspended-sediment concentrations. Watershed impoundments located in the respective river basins may contribute to the decreasing suspended-sediment trends exhibited at most of the sampling sites because the impoundments are designed to trap sediment. Both sites that exhibited statistically significant decreasing suspended-sediment concentrations have a large number of watershed impoundments located in their respective drainage basins. The relation between percentage of the watershed affected by impoundments and trend in suspended-sediment concentration for 11 sites indicated that, as the number of impoundments in the watershed increases, suspended-sediment concentration decreases. Other conservation practices, such as terracing of farm fields and contour farming, also may contribute to the reduced suspended-sediment concentrations if their use has increased during the period of analysis. Regression models were developed for 13 of 14 sediment sampling sites in Kansas and can be used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration if the range in stream discharge for which they were developed is not exceeded and if time trends in suspended-sediment concentrations are not significant. For those sites that had a statistically significant trend in suspended-sediment concentration, a second regression model was developed using samples collected during 2000–02. Past and current studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that regression models can be developed between in-stream measurements of turbidity and laboratory-analyzed sediment samples. Regression models were developed for the relations between discharge and suspended-sediment concentration and turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration for 10 sediment sampling sites using samples collected during 2000–02.

Kansas↗
USGS2004

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected sites in or near the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center, South Dakota, 1973-2000

This report presents data on water-quality samples that were collected in and near the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center from 1973 through 2000. The investigation is a collaborated effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Discipline (WRD), and Geography (formerly National Mapping) Discipline, EROS Data Center. A water-quality monitoring program was initiated in 1973, when the EROS Data Center was constructed, and continues at the present time (2003). Under this program, water-quality samples were collected at various sites on the EROS Data Center's property and in the surrounding area. These sites include 4 wastewater-treatment lagoons, 1 site on EROS Lake located behind the EROS Data Center, 2 stream sites near the EROS Data Center, and 9 ground-water wells surrounding the EROS Data Center. Additionally, 3 sites on EROS Lake, 7 stream sites, and 9 ground-water sites are located within the study area and have been sampled during the period covered in the report. Some of these additional sites were part of the initial water-quality monitoring conducted during and immediately after the construction of the EROS Data Center. For other sites, some special sampling (depth-profile and bottom material) has occurred at times during the sampling history; however, these sites have little water-quality data and were not used for statistical or trend analysis. A trend-analysis program, Estimate TREND (ESTREND), was used to analyze for trends for one surface-water site, the Big Sioux River, which was the only site that had a substantial number of samples collected during an extensive period. The ESTREND trend-analysis program was used to analyze 16 constituents. Specific conductance and dissolved orthophosphate were the only constituents determined to have statistically significant trends. Results showed an increasing trend for specific conductance and a decreasing trend for dissolved orthophosphate. Scatter plots with regression smoothing lines for selected constituents are presented for selected surface-water and ground-water sites. Regression analyses using a Lowess (Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing) smoothing line for Split Rock Creek, EROS Lake, the lagoon sites, and the ground-water sites indicated variable results, with some constituents indicating an increasing or decreasing trend, some having varied results, and others indicating no change during the sampling period.

South Dakota↗
USGS2005

Some geometric constraints on ring-width trend

Simulations of tree rings from trees of undisturbed forest sites are used to describe natural, long-term width trends. Ring-width trends of canopy-sized white oak are simulated from regressions of BAI (ring area) data of real trees. Examples are given of a tree from a typical re-growth forest in Illinois and of a more slowly growing tree from an old-growth forest in Kentucky. The long-term width trend was simulated as being toward constant ring width regardless of growth rate of the tree. Conditions by which either increasing or decreasing ring-width trends could be simulated from the same linear BAI trend are examined. I conclude that curvilinear width trends, either increasing or decreasing, represent width adjustments to changes in growth rate ( BAI trend) after which the width trend stabilizes to a near-constant value. Interpretation of ring-width trends of trees from undisturbed stands may be useful in assessing stand disturbance history.

Tree-Ring Research↗
USGS2021

Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa

In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand ( E 0 ). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E 0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E 0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E 0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E 0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E 0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit.

Earth Systems Science Dynamics↗
USGS2009

Trends in anuran occupancy from northeastern states of the North American Monitoring Program

We present the first multi-year occupancy trends from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data in 10 northeastern states using seven years of data (2001-2007). NAAMP uses a calling survey technique where observers listen for anuran vocalizations along assigned random roadside routes. We were able to assess occupancy trends in 10 northeastern states for 16 species and one species complex, for 94 species/state combinations. We found no significant trends for 64 species/state combinations. For the remaining 30 species/state combinations with significant trends, these split between declining and increasing trends. On a species-by-species basis, two species had declining trends, with significant trends in six states for Pseudacris crucifer and four states for Bufo americanus . The trends of Rana catesbeiana significantly increased in four states, but had no trend in the remaining states.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology↗
USGS2012

Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

Natural Resource Report↗