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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Inducible defenses in food webs: Chapter 3.4

This chapter reviews the predicted effects of induced defenses on trophic structure and two aspects of stability, “local” stability and persistence, as well as presenting novel results on a third, resilience. Food webs are structures of populations in a given location organized according to their predator–prey interactions. Interaction strengths and, therefore, prey defenses are generally recognized as important ecological factors affecting food webs. Despite this, surprisingly, little light has been shed on the food web-level consequences of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses occur in many taxa in both terrestrial and aquatic food webs. They include refuge use, reduced activity, adaptive life history changes, the production of toxins, synomones and extrafloral nectar, and the formation of colonies, helmets, thorns, or spines. In the chapter, theoretical results for the effects of inducible defenses on trophic structure and the three aspects of stability are reviewed. This is done, in part, using bifurcation analysis—a type of analysis that is applied to nonlinear dynamic systems described by a set of ordinary differential or difference equations. The work presented in the chapter suggests that heterogeneity, as caused by induced defenses in prey species, has major effects on the functioning of food webs. Inducible defenses occur in many species in both aquatic and terrestrial systems, and theoretical work indicates they have major effects on important food web properties such as trophic structure, local stability, persistence, and resilience.

Book chapter↗
USGS2006

Understanding the genetic effects of recent habitat fragmentation in the context of evolutionary history: Phylogeography and landscape genetics of a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus)

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to urbanization are the most pervasive threats to biodiversity in southern California. Loss of habitat and fragmentation can lower migration rates and genetic connectivity among remaining populations of native species, reducing genetic variability and increasing extinction risk. However, it may be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric fragmentation due to previous natural geological and climatic changes. To address these challenges, we examined the phylogenetic and population genetic structure of a flightless insect endemic to cismontane southern California, Stenopelmatus 'mahogani' (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae). Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequence data suggest that diversification across southern California began during the Pleistocene, with most haplotypes currently restricted to a single population. Patterns of genetic divergence correlate with contemporary urbanization, even after correcting for (geographical information system) GIS-based reconstructions of fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Theoretical simulations confirm that contemporary patterns of genetic structure could be produced by recent urban fragmentation using biologically reasonable assumptions about model parameters. Diversity within populations was positively correlated with current fragment size, but not prehistoric fragment size, suggesting that the effects of increased drift following anthropogenic fragmentation are already being seen. Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity can hinder a population's ability to adapt to ecological perturbations commonly associated with urbanization, such as habitat degradation, climatic changes and introduced species. Consequently, our results underscore the importance of preserving and restoring landscape connectivity for long-term persistence of low vagility native species. Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2010

The ODD protocol: A review and first update

The ‘ODD’ (Overview, Design concepts, and Details) protocol was published in 2006 to standardize the published descriptions of individual-based and agent-based models (ABMs). The primary objectives of ODD are to make model descriptions more understandable and complete, thereby making ABMs less subject to criticism for being irreproducible. We have systematically evaluated existing uses of the ODD protocol and identified, as expected, parts of ODD needing improvement and clarification. Accordingly, we revise the definition of ODD to clarify aspects of the original version and thereby facilitate future standardization of ABM descriptions. We discuss frequently raised critiques in ODD but also two emerging, and unanticipated, benefits: ODD improves the rigorous formulation of models and helps make the theoretical foundations of large models more visible. Although the protocol was designed for ABMs, it can help with documenting any large, complex model, alleviating some general objections against such models.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2025

Cgsim: An R package for simulation of population genetics for conservation and management applications

Wildlife conservation and management increasingly considers genetic information to plan, understand and evaluate implemented population interventions. These actions commonly include conservation translocation and population reductions through removals. Change in genetic variation in response to management actions can be unintuitive due to the influence of multiple interacting drivers (e.g. genetic drift, life history traits, environmental stochasticity). Simulation is an excellent tool to understand the predicted consequences of different proposed or implemented actions. However, the genetic simulators that are robust to a wide variety of life history traits also have a steep learning curve to appropriately parameterize common management actions. To fill this gap, we have developed cgsim, an R package for simulating the genetic consequences of common management interventions for populations of wildlife species. We developed a set of functions to specifically understand the effects of four main aspects of managing small, declining or isolated populations: loss of genetic diversity to drift, augmenting existing populations (e.g. translocation), population reduction through targeted removals and population catastrophes driven by stochastic extrinsic forces. Our single population simulation model is individual-based, and flexible to a range of life history traits. Here we validate cgsim through comparison of simulations to theoretical expectations of genetic diversity loss and illustrate its applied utility by focusing on a recently published empirical example for the Greater Sage-Grouse. Cgsim is available as an R package at: https://doi.org/10.5066/P1BXBEXJ .

Molecular Ecology Resources↗
USGS2012

A general theory of multimetric indices and their properties

1. Stewardship of biological and ecological resources requires the ability to make integrative assessments of ecological integrity. One of the emerging methods for making such integrative assessments is multimetric indices (MMIs). These indices synthesize data, often from multiple levels of biological organization, with the goal of deriving a single index that reflects the overall effects of human disturbance. Despite the widespread use of MMIs, there is uncertainty about why this approach can be effective. An understanding of MMIs requires a quantitative theory that illustrates how the properties of candidate metrics relates to MMIs generated from those metrics. 2. We present the initial basis for such a theory by deriving the general mathematical characteristics of MMIs assembled from metrics. We then use the theory to derive quantitative answers to the following questions: Is there an optimal number of metrics to comprise an index? How does covariance among metrics affect the performance of the index derived from those metrics? And what are the criteria to decide whether a given metric will improve the performance of an index? 3. We find that the optimal number of metrics to be included in an index depends on the theoretical distribution of signal of the disturbance gradient contained in each metric. For example, if the rank-ordered parameters of a metric-disturbance regression can be described by a monotonically decreasing function, then an optimum number of metrics exists and can often be derived analytically. We derive the conditions by which adding a given metric can be expected to improve an index. 4. We find that the criterion defining such conditions depends nonlinearly of the signal of the disturbance gradient, the noise (error) of the metric and the correlation of the metric errors. Importantly, we find that correlation among metric errors increases the signal required for the metric to improve the index. 5. The theoretical framework presented in this study provides the basis for understanding the properties of MMIs. It can also be useful throughout the index construction process. Specifically, it can be used to aid understanding of the benefits and limitations of combining metrics into indices; it can inform selection/collection of candidate metrics; and it can be used directly as a decision aid in effective index construction.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2006

Monitoring biological diversity: strategies, tools, limitations, and challenges

Monitoring is an assessment of the spatial and temporal variability in one or more ecosystem properties, and is an essential component of adaptive management. Monitoring can help determine whether mandated environmental standards are being met and can provide an early-warning system of ecological change. Development of a strategy for monitoring biological diversity will likely be most successful when based upon clearly articulated goals and objectives and may be enhanced by including several key steps in the process. Ideally, monitoring of biological diversity will measure not only composition, but also structure and function at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Although biodiversity monitoring has several key limitations as well as numerous theoretical and practical challenges, many tools and strategies are available to address or overcome such challenges; I summarize several of these. Due to the diversity of spatio-temporal scales and comprehensiveness encompassed by existing definitions of biological diversity, an effective monitoring design will reflect the desired sampling domain of interest and its key stressors, available funding, legal requirements, and organizational goals.

Northwestern Naturalist↗
USGS2005

Broad-scale predictors of canada lynx occurrence in eastern North America

The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is listed as a threatened species throughout the southern extent of its geographic range in the United States. Most research on lynx has been conducted in the western United States and Canada; little is known about the ecology of lynx in eastern North America. To fill critical knowledge gaps about this species, we modeled and mapped lynx occurrence using habitat and weather data from 7 eastern states and 3 Canadian provinces. Annual snowfall, road density, bobcat (L. rufus) harvest, deciduous forest, and coniferous forest were compared at 1,150 lynx locations and 1,288 random locations. Nineteen a priori models were developed using the information-theoretic approach, and logistic regression models were ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and by our ability to correctly classify reserved data (Kappa). Annual snowfall and deciduous forest predicted lynx presence and absence for a reserved dataset (n = 278) with 94% accuracy. A map of the probability of lynx occurrence throughout the region revealed that 92% of the potential habitat (i.e., >50% probability of occurrence) was concentrated in a relatively contiguous complex encompassing northern Maine, New Brunswick, and the Gaspe?? peninsula of Quebec. Most of the remaining potential habitat (5%) was on northern Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia. Potential habitat in New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York was small (1,252 km2), fragmented, and isolated (>200 km) from known lynx populations. When federally listed as threatened in the contiguous United States in 2000, inadequate regulations on federal lands were cited as the primary threat to Canada lynx. However, the majority of potential lynx habitat in the eastern United States is on private lands and continuous with potential habitat in Canada. Therefore, lynx conservation in eastern North America will need to develop partnerships across national, state, and provincial boundaries as well as with private landowners.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2021

A graphical causal model for resolving species identity effects and biodiversity–ecosystem function correlations: comment

In a recent paper, Schoolmaster, Zirbel, and Cronin (SZC) (2020 ) claim “Formal causal analysis show[s] that biodiversity–ecosystem function (BEF) correlations are non-causal associations.” If this conclusion is accepted as true, it suggests a reconsideration of much of our current understanding of how biodiversity relates to the functioning of ecosystems. On the surface, it is easy to spot clear signs of something problematic with SZC’s presentation. They claim, for example, that (1) species richness is incapable of having a causal effect on ecosystem functioning on theoretical grounds, and (2) that trait diversity cannot be causally influenced by species diversity. These remarkable claims are counter to existing thought and evidence. We point to logical errors that lead them to a misapply causal analysis and produce erroneous conclusions.

Ecology↗
USGS2023

Assimilating ecological theory with empiricism: Using constrained generalized additive models to enhance survival analyses

1. Integrating ecological theory with empirical methods is ubiquitous in ecology using hierarchical Bayesian models. However, there has been little development focused on integration of ecological theory into models for survival analysis. Survival is a fundamental process, linking individual fitness with population dynamics, but incorporating life history strategies to inform survival estimation can be challenging because mortality processes occur at multiple scales. 2. We develop an approach to survival analysis, incorporating model constraints based on a species' life history strategy using functional analytical tools. Specifically, we structurally separate intrinsic patterns of mortality that arise from age-specific processes (e.g. increasing survival during early life stages due to growth or maturation, versus senescence) from extrinsic mortality patterns that arise over different periods of time (e.g. seasonal temporal shifts). We use shape constrained generalized additive models (CGAMs) to obtain age-specific hazard functions that incorporate theoretical information based on classical survivorship curves into the age component of the model and capture extrinsic factors in the time component. 3. We compare the performance of our modelling approach to standard survival modelling tools that do not explicitly incorporate species life history strategy in the model structure, using metrics of predictive power, accuracy, efficiency and computation time. We applied these models to two case studies that reflect different functional shapes for the underlying survivorship curves, examining age-period survival for white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in Wisconsin, USA and Columbian sharp-tailed grouse T ympanuchus phasianellus columbianus in Colorado, USA.

Colorado, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Eradication efforts catalyze rapid evolution in an invasive predatory fish

pecies invasions spur costly and labor-intensive control efforts, yet even local eradication is seldom achieved. When control measures are initially effective, they may drive evolutionary adaptation that prevents full eradication, as has been documented for some chemical and biocontrol approaches. Although the intensity, directionality, and persistence of selection required to increase the frequency of resistant genotypes in complex natural ecosystems remains an open question, theory predicts that high mortality can cause life-history evolution even in the absence of a strong selective agent. Here, we use annually collected ecological and genetic data to show that rapid evolution of introduced smallmouth bass has undermined a 20-y manual suppression effort in a mid-sized lake. Despite nearly doubling annual mortality, our intensive control program produced a larger bass population dominated by young and early-maturing fish. These shifts were accompanied by large allele frequency changes in three genomic regions associated with earlier maturation and increased somatic growth. Our findings bear out the theoretical prediction that high mortality can drive evolutionary adaptation in target species. Controlling species invasions are worldwide practices that typically remove a substantial proportion of a population during each of many successive generations, hence life history adaptation may be commonplace. Such evolutionary responses could be salient in explaining the widespread failure of invasion control efforts. Genetic and phenotypic monitoring to detect cryptic adaptation and preemptive design of invader eradication programs to deliberately disrupt directional selection for resistance could improve invasion control outcomes.

New York↗
USGS2016

Fluctuating water depths affect American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) body condition in the Everglades, Florida, USA

Successful restoration of wetland ecosystems requires knowledge of wetland hydrologic patterns and an understanding of how those patterns affect wetland plant and animal populations.Within the Everglades, Florida, USA restoration, an applied science strategy including conceptual ecological models linking drivers to indicators is being used to organize current scientific understanding to support restoration efforts. A key driver of the ecosystem affecting the distribution and abundance of organisms is the timing, distribution, and volume of water flows that result in water depth patterns across the landscape. American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) are one of the ecological indicators being used to assess Everglades restoration because they are a keystone species and integrate biological impacts of hydrological operations through all life stages. Alligator body condition (the relative fatness of an animal) is one of the metrics being used and targets have been set to allow us to track progress. We examined trends in alligator body condition using Fulton’s K over a 15 year period (2000–2014) at seven different wetland areas within the Everglades ecosystem, assessed patterns and trends relative to restoration targets, and related those trends to hydrologic variables. We developed a series of 17 a priori hypotheses that we tested with an information theoretic approach to identify which hydrologic factors affect alligator body condition. Alligator body condition was highest throughout the Everglades during the early 2000s and is approximately 5–10% lower now (2014). Values have varied by year, area, and hydrology. Body condition was positively correlated with range in water depth and fall water depth. Our top model was the “Current” model and included variables that describe current year hydrology (spring depth, fall depth, hydroperiod, range, interaction of range and fall depth, interaction of range and hydroperiod). Across all models, interaction between range and fall water depth was the most important variable (relative weight of 1.0) followed by spring and fall water depths (0.99), range (0.96), hydroperiod (0.95) and interaction between range and hydroperiod (0.95). Our work provides additional evidence that restoring a greater range in annual water depths is important for improvement of alligator body condition and ecosystem function. This information can be incorporated into both planning and operations to assist in reaching Everglades restoration goals.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Antipredator response diminishes during periods of resource deficit for a large herbivore

The starvation-predation hypothesis predicts that, during resource shortages, prey forego antipredator behavior and forage as much as possible to avoid starvation, even when risk of predation is high. We tested this hypothesis using GPS locations collected simultaneously from moose (Alces alces) and wolves (Canis lupus) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of North America. We assessed shifts in the speed, displacement, and habitat selection of moose 24 hours following encounter with wolves (0–1500 m distance). We examined whether the strength of antipredator behaviors would weaken as winter progressed and the nutritional condition of moose declined. Moose responded to wolf encounters by increasing their rate of movement in early winter, but only within 500 m distance. Importantly, these responses attenuated as winter progressed. Moose did not avoid their preferred foraging habitat (riparian areas) following encounters with wolves at any distance, and instead they more strongly selected riparian areas, especially in early winter. Our findings support theoretical predictions that resource deficits should dampen prey antipredator behavior, and suggest that nutritional condition of prey may buffer against run-away risk effects in food webs involving large mammalian predators and prey.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2022

Informing surveillance through the characterization of outbreak potential of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

Understanding the role that an environmental prion reservoir plays in the outbreak dynamics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in free ranging white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is critical for the allocation of disease surveillance resources by state and provincial wildlife agencies. We hypothesized that demographic, ecological, and epidemiological configurations naturally attenuate epidemic risk despite the introduction of infectious prions into a susceptible population of deer, but the magnitude of infectious prions in the environmental prion reservoir complicate outbreak expectations. We developed a Susceptible-Latent-Exposed-Infective (SLEI) compartment model to represent the dynamics of CWD epidemics in free-ranging white-tailed deer, then used the basic reproductive ratio ( R 0 "> R0 ) to pinpoint counties under which pathogenic introduction (transport of infectious bodily fluids, tissues, and carcasses through natural or anthropogenic means) naturally produced (or failed to produce) an epidemic. We found that the outlook for an epidemic hinged on transmission rates, the magnitude of environmental contamination, and system type (density-, frequency-, or density/frequency-dependent). CWD can persistently infect individuals living in a contaminated environment even if direct transmission is insufficient to sustain circulation. Theoretical results show that transmission of CWD cannot be exclusively density dependent, and must behave as either a mix between frequency and density dependent, or strictly frequency dependent. While the compartment model is a simplistic representation of reality and did not contain many complicating biological considerations, it was immediately useful in hypothesis generation, motivating the collection of additional data for use in more biologically detailed models, and in the allocation of finite surveillance resources to place emphasis on data collection in areas where an introduction of infectious prions is comparatively more likely to result in an epidemic.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Temperature and water-quality diversity and the effects of surface-water connection in off-channel features of the Willamette River, Oregon, 2015–16

Water-quality conditions (including temperature) in the Willamette River and many of its adjacent off-channel features, such as alcoves and side channels, were monitored between river miles 67 (near Salem, Oregon) and 168 (near Eugene, Oregon) during the summers of 2015 and 2016. One or more parameters (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and [or] water depth) were continuously measured at sites in the main channel (9 sites in 2015; 5 sites in 2016) and select off-channel features (20 features in 2015; 22 features in 2016). This study was initiated in reaction to the unusually warm, dry weather and resulting low streamflows that occurred in the Pacific Northwest in 2015 and the need for flow managers to understand the effects of streamflow on water-quality conditions in off-channel features of the Willamette River. Field monitoring was focused on documenting water-quality conditions during low summer streamflows and during fluctuations in streamflow, including when side channels became alcoves and reconnected to become side channels again. Water in the main channel of the Willamette River upstream from river mile 50 near Newberg typically is well mixed during summer, with warm water temperatures (greater than 18 degrees Celsius) and high dissolved-oxygen concentrations (often greater than 7.7 milligrams per liter). During low summer flows, a diverse suite of off-channel features exists adjacent to the main channel of the Willamette River. Despite temporal and spatial variability within individual features, comparison of continuous water-temperature data between the main channel and off-channel features indicated that some off-channel features were consistently cooler than the main channel, some were consistently warmer than the main channel, and others frequently fluctuated between warmer or cooler than the main channel. Site-specific characteristics including upstream connection, depth, and presence or absence of aquatic or riparian vegetation were factors that seemed to affect the water quality of a feature. Results from this study showed a relation between the geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, and water quality of an off-channel feature. Data confirmed that many features that can be classified as cold-water refuges based on water-temperature standards also contained low concentrations of dissolved oxygen that may not be suitable for sensitive fish species. A simplified site classification scheme is proposed that links water-quality conditions in measured off-channel features with site-specific characteristics and summer streamflows. The site classification scheme was extended to create a theoretical process matrix that relates measured water-quality conditions to a list of the processes and site-specific characteristics that could create those conditions.

Oregon↗
USGS2000

2nd interface between ecology and land development in California

The 2nd Interface Between Ecology and Land Development Conference was held in association with Earth Day 1997, five years after the first Interface Conference. Rapid population growth in California has intensified the inevitable conflict between land development and preservation of natural ecosystems. Sustainable development requires wise use of diminishing natural resources and, where possible, restoration of damaged landscapes. These Earth Week Celebrations brought together resource managers, scientists, politicians, environmental consultants, and concerned citizens in an effort to improve the communication necessary to maintain our natural biodiversity, ecosystem processes and general quality of life. As discussed by our keynote speaker, Michael Soule, the best predictor of habitat loss is population growth and nowhere is this better illustrated than in California. As urban perimeters expand, the interface between wildlands and urban areas increases. Few problems are more vexing than how to manage the fire prone ecosystems indigenous to California at this urban interface. Today resource managers face increasing challenges of dealing with this problem and the lead-off section of the proceedings considers both the theoretical basis for making decisions related to prescribed burning and the practical application. Habitat fragmentation is an inevitable consequence of development patterns with significant impacts on animal and plant populations. Managers must be increasingly resourceful in dealing with problems of fragmentation and the often inevitable consequences, including susceptibility to invasive oganisms. One approach to dealing with fragmentation problems is through careful landplanning. California is the national leader in the integration of conservation and economics. On Earth Day 1991, Governor Pete Wilson presented an environmental agenda that promised to create between land owners and environmentalists, agreements that would guarantee the protection of -endangered species and out of this grew the pioneering initiative, known as the Natural Communities Conservation Planning (NCCP) program. California's vast expanse of seemingly endless resources has traditionally been viewed as justification for abusive land use practices. The modem day recognition that resources are finite has led to greater concern, not only for conserving what is left, but for restoring abused landscapes. Ecological restoration is a new science devoted to returning disturbed environments to a semblance of their 'pristine' state. Based on principles of 'revegetation,' restoration goes far beyond simple replanting, rather the ambition of ecological restoration is to return landscapes to functioning ecosystems and is the focus of the last section.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Integrating hunter dynamics and waterfowl dynamics to inform harvest management

The successful conservation and management of North American waterfowl relies upon an adaptive harvest management framework that accounts for changes in the system state and critical uncertainties related to the dynamics of waterfowl populations and habitats. Increasing recognition of the importance of the human dimensions of the harvest process, particularly those related to hunters, has motivated calls for the integration of social objectives into waterfowl conservation programs and decision making. We introduce a framework for modeling the dynamics of hunter populations and behavior alongside those of waterfowl populations. Using Bayesian estimation, we fit a dynamic state space model to observational data from the Mid-Continent mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) system over a 20-year period and estimated parameter values for the relative effects of a set of hypothesized drivers of hunter recruitment, retention, reactivation, participation, and success rates. We then made projections across 3 future scenarios to examine the continuation of current trends, the potential effects of a shift to a moderate regulatory framework as informed by expert elicitation, and increased hunter recruitment to maintain a stable hunter population. We found that a theoretical stable state exists for Mid-Continent mallard and hunter populations but that the influence of broader sociocultural shifts and increasing hunter mortality from an aging base pose significant challenges for efforts to stabilize the ongoing decline of active hunter numbers, even under favorable regulatory conditions. This modeling framework and results from it can be used to inform decision processes in the management of game populations that seek to include social objectives and assess the potential trade-offs of prioritizing across social and ecological objectives. We emphasize the need for focused human dimensions expertise throughout the process of fully integrating goals for waterfowl populations, habitats, and people in waterfowl conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗