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USGS2014

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Population and Environment↗

USGS2021

Estimating the influence of oyster reef chains on freshwater detention at the estuary scale using Landsat-8 imagery

Oyster reef chains grow in response to local hydrodynamics and can redirect flows, particularly when reef chains grow perpendicular to freshwater flow paths. Singularly, oyster reef chains can act as porous dams that may facilitate nearshore accumulation of fresh or low-salinity water, in turn creating intermediate salinities that support oyster growth and estuarine conditions. However, oyster-driven freshwater detention has only been confirmed by limited, point-scale observational data, and simplified models. Oyster reef-driven freshwater detention in real ecosystems at the estuary scale remains largely unexplored. In this study, we analyzed the visible bands in 30-m resolution remote sensing (RS) images recorded by the Operational Land Imager aboard Landsat-8 to characterize the freshwater detention effect of oyster reef chains across a set of hydrologic conditions. Our results support prior findings indicating that 30-m resolution RS images recorded by the Operational Land Imager aboard Landsat-8 are useful for analyzing coastal dynamics after atmospheric correction, despite having been originally designed for terrestrial studies. Statistical models of water-leaving reflectance revealed that freshwater detention by oyster reefs was evident across the estuary, with the greatest effect occurring in the region closest to shore. Additionally, statistical modeling results and spatial patterns apparent in the satellite images suggested that reef-driven freshwater detention occurred under high riverine discharge conditions, but was less evident when flow was low. Beyond offering insight on the potential role of oyster reefs as mediators of estuarine hydrology, this study presents a transferable methodological framework for exploring estuarine biophysical feedbacks in blackwater river estuaries using satellite remote sensing.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Estuarine tidal cycles may preserve thermal refugia as global temperatures increase

Climate change is affecting coastal ecosystems worldwide as water temperatures increase, hydrologic regimes change, and sea levels rise. Consequently, estuaries risk declines in ecosystem functioning due to increasing temperatures and other hydrologic factors. Characterizing and predicting estuarine water temperature are challenging because these systems are highly dynamic. Statistical models have been used to accurately assess air temperature-water temperature relationships in lakes and streams but have not been effectively applied to tidally influenced ecosystems like estuaries. We used 6 years of continuous monitoring data from the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., to parameterize and run a non-linear statistical model and generate spatially explicit model predictions. Our goal was to examine spatiotemporal patterns in estuarine water temperature and thermal refugia given current estimates of climactic change. The performance of the parameterized model was similar to that of non-linear stream temperature models (NSE = 0.76; RMSE = 2.34 °C). Scenarios incorporating forecasted high-emission air temperatures through the year 2100 (+ 7 °C) predicted a corresponding 3.55 ± 0.63 °C increase in average water temperatures; however, moderate and high rates of sea-level rise offset temperature increases by 3–20% and substantially reduced the amount of time temperatures exceeded the thermal stress threshold of 20 °C for juvenile salmon. These findings demonstrate how the effects of one climate stressor (sea-level rise) may offset another (temperature increases) to maintain thermal refugia for coldwater fishes. Similar exercises may allow managers to explore mitigation options like the planting of riparian vegetation or modified flooding regimes to further offset rising water temperatures.

Washington↗

USGS2013

Reproductive health of yellow perch Perca flavescens in selected tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

Reduced recruitment of yellow perch has been noted for a number of years in certain urbanized watersheds (South and Severn Rivers) of the Chesapeake Bay. Other rapidly developing watersheds such as Mattawoman Creek are more recently showing evidence of reduced recruitment of anadromous fishes. In this study, we used a battery of biomarkers to better document the reproductive health of adult yellow perch collected during spring spawning in 2007–2009. Perch were collected in the South and Severn Rivers, Mattawoman Creek and the less developed Choptank and Allen's Fresh watersheds for comparison. Gonadosomatic indices, plasma reproductive hormone concentrations, plasma vitellogenin concentrations and gonad histology were evaluated in mature perch of both sexes. In addition, sperm quantity (cell counts) and quality (total and progressive motility, spermatogenic stage and DNA integrity), were measured in male perch. Many of these biomarkers varied annually and spatially, with some interesting statistical results and trends. Male perch from the Choptank and Allen's Fresh had generally higher sperm counts. In 2008 counts were significantly lower in the perch from the Severn when compared to other sites. The major microscopic gonadal abnormality in males was the proliferation of putative Leydig cells, observed in testes from Severn and less commonly, Mattawoman Creek perch. Observations that could significantly impact egg viability were an apparent lack of final maturation, abnormal yolk and thin, irregular zona pellucida. These were observed primarily in ovaries from Severn, South and less commonly Mattawoman Creek perch. The potential association of these observations with urbanization, impervious surface and chemical contaminants is discussed.

Maryl;Virginia↗

USGS2007

Remote camera-trap methods and analyses reveal impacts of rangeland management on Namibian carnivore communities

Assessing the abundance and distribution of mammalian carnivores is vital for understanding their ecology and providing for their long-term conservation. Because of the difficulty of trapping and handling carnivores many studies have relied on abundance indices that may not accurately reflect real abundance and distribution patterns. We developed statistical analyses that detect spatial correlation in visitation data from combined scent station and camera-trap surveys, and we illustrate how to use such data to make inferences about changes in carnivore assemblages. As a case study we compared the carnivore communities of adjacent communal and freehold rangelands in central Namibia. We used an index of overdispersion to test for repeat visits to individual camera-trap scent stations and a bootstrap simulation to test for correlations in visits to camera neighbourhoods. After distilling our presence-absence data to the most defensible spatial scale, we assessed overall carnivore visitation using logistic regression. Our analyses confirmed the expected pattern of a depauparate fauna on the communal rangelands compared to the freehold rangelands. Additionally, the species that were not detected on communal sites were the larger-bodied carnivores. By modelling these rare visits as a Poisson process we illustrate a method of inferring whether or not such patterns are because of local extinction of species or are simply a result of low sample effort. Our Namibian case study indicates that these field methods and analyses can detect meaningful differences in the carnivore communities brought about by anthropogenic influences. ?? 2007 FFI.

Oryx↗

USGS2017

Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation

A declining rate of recovery following disturbance has been proposed as an important early warning for impending tipping points in complex systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, this ‘critical slowing down’ remains largely untested in the complex settings of real-world ecosystems. Here, we provide both observational and experimental support of critical slowing down along natural stress gradients in tidal marsh ecosystems. Time series of aerial images of European marsh development reveal a consistent lengthening of recovery time as inundation stress increases. We corroborate this finding with transplantation experiments in European and North American tidal marshes. In particular, our results emphasize the power of direct observational or experimental measures of recovery over indirect statistical signatures, such as spatial variance or autocorrelation. Our results indicate that the phenomenon of critical slowing down can provide a powerful tool to probe the resilience of natural ecosystems.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2023

Assessing potential effects of climate change on highway-runoff flows and loads in southern New England by using planning-level space-for-time analyses

Transportation agencies need information about the potential effects of climate change on the volume, quality, and treatment of stormwater to mitigate potential effects of runoff on receiving waters. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project tool and the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model to perform space-for-time stormwater quality analyses. This study indicated that spatial variations in precipitation statistics within and adjacent to southern New England are greater than projected climate-related changes for the centroid of this region. A dilution-factor analysis indicated that highway runoff would become a greater proportion of downstream flows if average event volumes or time between event midpoints increase and would become a smaller proportion of downstream flows if event durations increase. Highway-runoff yield analyses for total phosphorus (TP) indicate that uncertainty in water quality statistics results in variations in long-term average yields from about 1.69 to 7.96 times higher than the lowest TP values simulated. In comparison, variations in precipitation statistics cause yield variations that ranged from 1.41 to 1.76 for the different simulated concentrations. An analysis of stormwater treatment indicated that uncertainties in runoff treatment variables are also larger than the magnitude of climate variations. This study does not question the potentially large climate-related changes in hydrologic and hydraulic variables expected to occur in the foreseeable future. It does indicate that uncertainties in the current data and potential effects of land use change on stormwater quality and treatment variables are larger than the projected effects of climate change.

Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts↗

USGS2015

A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?

Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in Oklahoma? How much has the rate varied throughout historical and early instrumental times? In this article, we show that (1) seismicity rates since 2009 surpass previously observed rates throughout the twentieth century; (2) several lines of evidence suggest that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century were likely induced by oil production activities, as they exhibit statistically significant temporal and spatial correspondence with disposal wells, and intensity measurements for the 1952 El Reno earthquake and possibly the 1956 Tulsa County earthquake follow the pattern observed in other induced earthquakes; and (3) there is evidence for a low level of tectonic seismicity in southeastern Oklahoma associated with the Ouachita structural belt. The 22 October 1882 Choctaw Nation earthquake, for which we estimate Mw 4.8, occurred in this zone.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2009

Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973-2000

Project Background: The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-use and land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: (1) develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for measuring regional land-cover change across the United States, (2) characterize the types, rates and temporal variability of change for a 30-year period, (3) document regional driving forces and consequences of change, and (4) prepare a national synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999). Using the 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) as the geographic framework, geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 were processed and analyzed to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000, and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes such as water, developed, grassland/shrubland, and agriculture for these periods were interpreted from Landsat MSS, TM, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land-Use Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The interpretation of these land-cover classes complement the program objective of looking at land-use change with cover serving as a surrogate for land use. The land-cover change rates are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary data such as census statistics and published literature are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. For example, the scalar statistics can show the spatial extent of change per cover type with time, as well as the land-cover transformations from one land-cover type to another type occurring with time. Field data of the sample blocks include direct measurements of land cover, particularly ground-survey data collected for training and validation of image classifications (Loveland and others, 2002). The field experience allows for additional observations of the character and condition of the landscape, assistance in sample block interpretation, ground truthing of Landsat imagery, and helps determine the driving forces of change identified in an ecoregion. Management and maintenance of field data, beyond initial use for training and validation of image classifications, is important as improved methods for image classification are developed, and as present-day data become part of the historical legacy for which studies of land-cover change in the future will depend (Loveland and others, 2002). The results illustrate that there is no single profile of land-cover change; instead, there is significant geographic variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to the resource potential created by various environmental, technological, and socioeconomic factors.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2011

Contributing recharge areas, groundwater travel time, and groundwater quality of the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence, Missouri, well field, 1997-2008

The City of Independence, Missouri, operates a well field in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer. Contributing recharge areas (CRA) were last determined for the well field in 1996. Since that time, eight supply wells have been installed in the area north of the Missouri River and well pumpage has changed for the older supply wells. The change in pumping has altered groundwater flow and substantially changed the character of the CRA and groundwater travel times to the supply wells. The U.S Geological Survey, in a cooperative study with the City of Independence, Missouri, simulated steady-state groundwater flow for 2007 well pumpage, average annual river stage, and average annual recharge. Particle-tracking analysis was used to determine the CRA for supply wells and monitoring wells, and the travel time from recharge areas to supply wells, recharge areas to monitoring wells, and monitoring wells to supply wells. The simulated CRA for the well field is elongated in the upstream direction and extends to both sides of the Missouri River. Groundwater flow paths and recharge areas estimated for monitoring wells indicate the origin of water to each monitoring well, the travel time of that water from the recharge area, the flow path from the vicinity of each monitoring well to a supply well, and the travel time from the monitoring well to the supply well. Monitoring wells 14a and 14b have the shortest groundwater travel time from their contributing recharge area of 0.30 years and monitoring well 29a has the longest maximum groundwater travel time from its contributing recharge area of 1,701 years. Monitoring well 22a has the shortest groundwater travel time of 0.5 day to supply well 44 and monitoring well 3b has the longest maximum travel time of 31.91 years to supply well 10. Water-quality samples from the Independence groundwater monitoring well network were collected from 1997 to 2008 by USGS personnel during ongoing annual sampling within the 10-year contributing recharge area (CRA) of the Independence well field. Statistical summaries and the spatial and temporal variability of water quality in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence well field were characterized from analyses of 598 water samples. Water-quality constituent groups include dissolved oxygen and physical properties, nutrients, major ions and trace elements, wastewater indicator compounds, fuel compounds, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), alachlor, and atrazine. The Missouri Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL) for iron was exceeded in almost all monitoring wells. The Missouri Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic was exceeded 32 times in samples from monitoring wells. The MCL for barium was exceeded five times in samples from one monitoring well. The SMCL for manganese was exceeded 160 times in samples from all monitoring wells and the combined well-field sample. The most frequently detected wastewater indicator compounds were N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), phenol, caffeine, and metolachlor. The most frequently detected fuel compounds were toluene and benzene. Alachlor was detected in 22 samples and atrazine was detected in 37 samples and the combined well-field sample. The MCL for atrazine was exceeded in one sample from one monitoring well. Samples from monitoring wells with median concentrations of total inorganic nitrogen larger than 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) are located near agricultural land and may indicate that agricultural land practices are the source of nitrogen to groundwater. Largest median values of specific conductance; total inorganic nitrogen; dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, iron, arsenic, manganese, bicarbonate, and sulfate and detections of wastewater indicator compounds generally were in water samples from monitoring wells with CRAs that intersect the south bank of the Missouri River. Zones of higher specific conductance were located just upstream from the Independence well field at south-bank outfalls from wastewater treatment plants, the Blue River, and the south bank of the Missouri River near the closed oil refinery. The long-term presence of these south-bank outfalls and the large specific conductance indicate that the surface water at the south bank of the Missouri River near the Independence well field may have consistently higher dissolved solids and nutrients that can be induced into the aquifer by pumping. Large median concentrations of sodium and chloride from samples from monitoring wells may be the result of road salt use on State Highway 291 or from Mill Creek, which drains the uplands south of the Independence well field. Large median concentrations of arsenic in samples from some monitoring well nests are most likely associated with dissolution of iron and sulfide minerals and fluctuation between oxidizing and reducing conditions. Largest median concentrations for arsenic are in the shallow depth interval where fluctuations between oxidizing and reducing conditions occur. Median concentrations of iron are large in all monitoring wells and are most likely caused by the interaction between fluctuating oxidizing and reducing conditions and siderite and ferric hydroxide. Spatial and temporal trends are not evident from the fuel compounds or total BTEX sample results. Alachlor and atrazine were detected in most monitoring wells and atrazine was detected more often than alachlor. The source of alachlor and atrazine in groundwater near the Independence well field is most likely from nearby agricultural land management practices and (or) the Missouri River. Many of the samples from monitoring wells with alachlor or atrazine detections greater than 10 percent have contributing recharge areas that intersect either agricultural land or the Missouri River bed.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Depth of groundwater used for drinking-water supplies in the United States

Groundwater supplies 35 percent of drinking water in the United States. Mapping the quantity and quality of groundwater at the depths used for potable supplies requires an understanding of locational variation in the characteristics of drinking-water wells (depth and open interval). Typical depths of domestic- and public-drinking-water supply wells vary by and within aquifer across the United States. The depths to the top and bottom of the zones from which drinking water is withdrawn are important predictor variables in regional- and national-scale statistical water models, but spatially extensive maps of the depths to drinking-water-supply sources are not consistently available in modeled regions. Therefore, it was necessary to generate a set of grids representing surfaces of the approximate common depth and length of open intervals in the wells from which water is withdrawn for domestic- and public-drinking-water supply (withdrawal zones) within the conterminous United States. Well data (about 7.6 million records) were compiled from several sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System (600,922 records), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Safe Drinking Water Information System dataset (66,540 records, primarily public-supply wells), a groundwater ambient monitoring dataset (31,448 records, primarily domestic-supply wells), individual State data (6,096,503 records), a national brackish aquifer study (96,885 records), and a glacial aquifer study (729,564 records). Fifty-seven principal aquifers and 65 secondary hydrogeologic regions have been designated in the conterminous United States. The principal aquifers and secondary hydrogeologic regions vary in depth, thickness, lithology, and transmissivity characteristics. Some principal aquifers underlie secondary hydrogeologic regions, and may in turn be overlain by glacial sediment or basin and valley fill aquifers, which may also be used as drinking-water sources. The principal aquifer and secondary hydrogeologic region polygons were merged with overlying sediment polygons, where present, including glacial sediment, coarse glacial sediment, and stream valley alluvium (alluvium) polygons, to generate unique hydrogeologic settings across the conterminous United States. A total of 288 distinct hydrogeologic settings resulted from the merging of principal aquifer, secondary hydrogeologic region, glacial sediment, coarse glacial sediment, and alluvium polygons. Each well was assigned to a hydrogeologic setting on the basis of location. Hydrogeologic setting well groupings were used to guide calculations of the median value for well depth and depth to and length of open intervals across the hydrogeologic setting. Where well data were sparse or missing, wells from hydrogeologic settings with similar well construction properties, geology, physiography, and topography were grouped and used to calculate the moving median depth (if less than five wells in a 100-kilometer [62.1-mile] radius) and to estimate open interval length (if not available within hydrogeologic setting). Grids were generated to represent what might be considered as the “typical” or “median” domestic- and public-supply well in an area. The well properties are defined with moving median grids of top depth, bottom depth, and length of open interval at a 1-square-kilometer (0.38-square-mile) grid cell scale. Median depths and open intervals of domestic- and public-supply wells varied by lithology of the hydrogeologic setting and overlying sediment. Overall, the median depths were 142 feet (43.3 meters) for all domestic-supply wells and 202 feet (61.6 meters) for all public-supply wells. The median open intervals were 21 feet (6.4 meters) for domestic-supply wells and 49 feet (14.9 meters) for public-supply wells. The shallowest median bottom open interval depths for domestic-supply wells were in the secondary hydrogeologic regions with coarse glacial sediment, which suggests that the wells are most commonly completed in the permeable coarse glacial sediment and not in the underlying secondary hydrogeologic region. Public-supply wells were completed at relatively shallow median depths when drilled in permeable sediment that overlie secondary hydrogeologic regions. When public-supply wells were completed in principal aquifers, the median depths were typically greater than wells completed in secondary hydrogeologic regions. Well data used in this study were limited to those available from national or State digital databases. Several quality-assurance checks were performed during data compilation, but a comprehensive quality assurance inspection for each of the data sources was outside the scope of this study. Grids defining typical open intervals in domestic- and public-supply wells are presented. Although there are many places where multiple aquifers are stacked, these results correspond primarily to the aquifer with the highest documented number of wells for each use.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Theoretical Population Biology↗

USGS2017

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2004

A resampling procedure for generating conditioned daily weather sequences

A method is introduced to generate conditioned daily precipitation and temperature time series at multiple stations. The method resamples data from the historical record “nens” times for the period of interest (nens = number of ensemble members) and reorders the ensemble members to reconstruct the observed spatial (intersite) and temporal correlation statistics. The weather generator model is applied to 2307 stations in the contiguous United States and is shown to reproduce the observed spatial correlation between neighboring stations, the observed correlation between variables (e.g., between precipitation and temperature), and the observed temporal correlation between subsequent days in the generated weather sequence. The weather generator model is extended to produce sequences of weather that are conditioned on climate indices (in this case the Niño 3.4 index). Example illustrations of conditioned weather sequences are provided for a station in Arizona (Petrified Forest, 34.8°N, 109.9°W), where El Niño and La Niña conditions have a strong effect on winter precipitation. The conditioned weather sequences generated using the methods described in this paper are appropriate for use as input to hydrologic models to produce multiseason forecasts of streamflow.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2017

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (<40%) between the two methods Despite these differences in variable sets (expert versus statistical), models had high performance metrics (>0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable selection is a useful first step, especially when there is a need to model a large number of species or expert knowledge of the species is limited. Expert input can then be used to refine models that seem unrealistic or for species that experts believe are particularly sensitive to change. It also emphasizes the importance of using multiple models to reduce uncertainty and improve map outputs for conservation planning. Where outputs overlap or show the same direction of change there is greater certainty in the predictions. Areas of disagreement can be used for learning by asking why the models do not agree, and may highlight areas where additional on-the-ground data collection could improve the models.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2016

NHDPlus as a geospatial framework for SPARROW modeling

Successful water-resource management requires thorough knowledge and understanding of the relations among water-quality contaminate sources and the factors that affect the transport throughout a hydrologic system. Surface-water modeling is a valuable tool that can be applied to help advance and achieve the understanding of these dynamic relations. Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) is one such model that uses nonlinear statistical methods to define conceptual and spatial relations among quantities of contaminant sources, monitored contaminant load, aquatic transport processes. NHDPlus Version 2 (V2) is a digital representation of a hydrologic network of streams and associated catchments. The dataset provides the fundamental spatial framework for SPARROW modeling.

Impact Assessment Bulletin↗

USGS1999

Spatial variability of turbulent fluxes in the roughness sublayer of an even-aged pine forest

The spatial variability of turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) of a uniform even-aged 14 m (= h) tall loblolly pine forest was investigated experimentally. Using seven existing walkup towers at this stand, high frequency velocity, temperature, water vapour and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 15.5 m above the ground surface from October 6 to 10 in 1997. These seven towers were separated by at least 100m from each other. The objective of this study was to examine whether single tower turbulence statistics measurements represent the flow properties of RSL turbulence above a uniform even-aged managed loblolly pine forest as a best-case scenario for natural forested ecosystems. From the intensive space-time series measurements, it was demonstrated that standard deviations of longitudinal and vertical velocities (σ u , σ w ) and temperature (σ T ) are more planar homogeneous than their vertical flux of momentum (u * 2 ) and sensible heat (H) counterparts. Also, the measured H is more horizontally homogeneous when compared to fluxes of other scalar entities such as CO 2 and water vapour. While the spatial variability in fluxes was significant (>15 %), this unique data set confirmed that single tower measurements represent the ‘canonical’ structure of single-point RSL turbulence statistics, especially flux-variance relationships. Implications to extending the ‘moving-equilibrium’ hypothesis for RSL flows are discussed. The spatial variability in all RSL flow variables was not constant in time and varied strongly with spatially averaged friction velocity u * , especially when u * was small. It is shown that flow properties derived from two-point temporal statistics such as correlation functions are more sensitive to local variability in leaf area density when compared to single point flow statistics. Specifically, that the local relationship between the reciprocal of the vertical velocity integral time scale (I w ) and the arrival frequency of organized structures (ū/h) predicted from a mixing-layer theory exhibited dependence on the local leaf area index. The broader implications of these findings to the measurement and modelling of RSL flows are also discussed.

Boundary-Layer Meteorology↗