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Science and the public welfare

Earthquakes & Volcanoes has achieved much in its 20-year history. It serves as a link with policy makers and the public. it offers a variety of information attractive to professionals: historical, culutral, and curent events, and news items not found or missed elsewhere. And the journal can anticipate an even mroe important role in the future because, with increasing concentrations of population as well as building costs, people and their constructs have become mroe vulnerable to hazards.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Newport News

Landsat Science Team meeting: Winter 2015

The summer meeting of the joint U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)–NASA Landsat Science Team (LST) was held at the USGS’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center July 7-9, 2015, in Sioux Falls, SD. The LST co-chairs, Tom Loveland [EROS—Senior Scientist] and Jim Irons [NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)—Landsat 8 Project Scientist], opened the three-day meeting on an upbeat note following the recent successful launch of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission on June 23, 2015 (see image on page 14), and the news that work on Landsat 9 has begun, with a projected launch date of 2023. With over 60 participants in attendance, this was the largest LST meeting ever held. Meeting topics on the first day included Sustainable Land Imaging and Landsat 9 development, Landsat 7 and 8 operations and data archiving, the Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) stray-light issue, and the successful Sentinel-2 launch. In addition, on days two and three the LST members presented updates on their Landsat science and applications research. All presentations are available at landsat.usgs.gov/science_LST_Team_ Meetings.php.

The Earth Observer

A system for monitoring impact of Denali National Park road traffic on wildlife

The Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA) is a 6.03 million acre reserve lying between Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska. The park was established in 1917 as a wildlife refuge, and is managed to maintain the wilderness character. With the highest mountain in North America, Mt. McKinley, and the easy availability of wildlife for viewing, the park is Alaska's most favored destination point. From 1972 through 1984, visitation grew from 88, 615 to 394, 426 visitor days per year (GMP, 1986), and then increased by 50,000 per year to 596,000 visitors in 1988. This demand for motorized access to the park, especially along the 92.5 mile-long park road, has resulted in controversy and claims of traffic disturbance to wildlife [(letter from Superintendent, DENA July 13, 1988) (Anchorage Daily News, May 14, 1995; May 26, 1995; February 5, 1996; June 18, 1996) Leo (1987); Lee Rue (1996)].

Biological Science Report

Groundwater science relevant to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement: A status report

When the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) was signed in 1972 by the Governments of Canada and the United States (the “Parties”) (Environment Canada, 2013a), groundwater was not recognized as important to the water quality of the Lakes. At that time, groundwater and surface water were still considered as two separate systems, with almost no appreciation for their interaction. When the GLWQA was revised in 1978 (US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), 2012), groundwater contamination, such as that reported at legacy industrial sites such as those at Love Canal near the Niagara River, was squarely in the news. Consequently, the potential impacts of contaminated groundwater from such sites on Great Lakes water quality became a concern (Beck, 1979), and Annex 16 was added to the agreement, to address “pollution from contaminated groundwater” (Francis, 1989). However, no formal process for reporting under this annex was provided. The GLWQA Protocol in 1987 modified Annex 16 and called for progress reports beginning in 1988 (USEPA, 1988). The Protocol in 2012 provided a new Annex 8 to address groundwater more holistically (Environment 2 Canada, 2013b). Annex 8 (Environment Canada, 2013b) commits the Parties to coordinate groundwater science and management actions; as a first step, to “publish a report on the relevant and available groundwater science” by February 2015 (this report); and to “identify priorities for science activities and actions for groundwater management, protection, and remediation…” The broader mandate of Annex 8 is to (1) “identify groundwater impacts on the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the Waters of the Great Lakes;” (2) “analyze contaminants, including nutrients in groundwater, derived from both point and non-point sources impacting the Waters of the Great Lakes;” (3) “assess information gaps and science needs related to groundwater to protect the quality of the Waters of the Great Lakes;” and (4) “analyze other factors, such as climate change, that individually or cumulatively affect groundwater’s impact on the quality of the Waters of the Great Lakes.” A binational Annex 8 Subcommittee was formed to lead efforts to fulfill the mandate of this annex (members listed on p. i of this report). In turn, this subcommittee has recruited a task team to prepare this report (listed as authors of each chapter). This report addresses all of the above four objectives, based on a compilation of the “relevant and available groundwater science.” Specifically, the second objective (to “analyze contaminants”) is addressed by incorporating information obtained in ongoing monitoring and research activities conducted by the Parties, and by various other members of the Great Lakes Executive Committee.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York,

Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay

As a result of climate change and variability, sea level is rising throughout the world, but the rate along the east coast of the United States is higher than the global mean rate. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, Virginia, conducted a study to evaluate the effects of possible future sea-level rise on the salinity front in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay, the York River, and the Chickahominy/James River estuaries. Numerical modeling was used to represent sea-level rise and the resulting hydrologic effects. Estuarine models for the two tributaries were developed and model simulations were made by use of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. HEM-3D was used to simulate tides, tidal currents, and salinity for Chesapeake Bay, the York River and the Chickahominy/James River. The three sea-level rise scenarios that were evaluated showed an increase of 30, 50, and 100 centimeters (cm). Model results for both estuaries indicated that high freshwater river flow was effective in pushing the salinity back toward Chesapeake Bay. Model results indicated that increases in mean salinity will greatly alter the existing water-quality gradients between brackish water and freshwater. This will be particularly important for the freshwater part of the Chickahominy River, where a drinking-water-supply intake for the City of Newport News is located. Significant changes in the salinity gradients for the York River and Chickahominy/James River estuaries were predicted for the three sea-level rise scenarios. When a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario on the York River during a typical year (2005) was used, the model simulation showed a salinity of 15 parts per thousand (ppt) at river kilometer (km) 39. During a dry year (2002), the same salinity (15 ppt) was simulated at river km 45, which means that saltwater was shown to migrate 6 km farther upstream during a dry year than a typical year. The same was true of the Chickahominy River for a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario but to a greater extent; a salinity of 4 ppt was simulated at river km 13 during a typical year and at river km 28 during a dry year, indicating that saltwater migrated 15 km farther upstream during a dry year. Near a drinking-water intake on the Chickahominy River, for a dry year, salinity is predicted to more than double for all three sea-level rise scenarios, relative to a typical year. During a typical year at this location, salinity is predicted to increase to 0.006, 0.07, and more than 2 ppt for the 30-, 50-, and 100-cm rise scenarios, respectively.

Virginia

Journal news

Statistical power (and conversely, Type II error) is often ignored by biologists. Power is important to consider in the design of studies, to ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address a hypothesis under examination. Deter- mining appropriate sample size when designing experiments or calculating power for a statistical test requires an investigator to consider the importance of making incorrect conclusions about the experimental hypothesis and the biological importance of the alternative hypothesis (or the biological effect size researchers are attempting to measure). Poorly designed studies frequently provide results that are at best equivocal, and do little to advance science or assist in decision making. Completed studies that fail to reject Ho should consider power and the related probability of a Type II error in the interpretation of results, particularly when implicit or explicit acceptance of Ho is used to support a biological hypothesis or management decision. Investigators must consider the biological question they wish to answer (Tacha et al. 1982) and assess power on the basis of biologically significant differences (Taylor and Gerrodette 1993). Power calculations are somewhat subjective, because the author must specify either f or the minimum difference that is biologically important. Biologists may have different ideas about what values are appropriate. While determining biological significance is of central importance in power analysis, it is also an issue of importance in wildlife science. Procedures, references, and computer software to compute power are accessible; therefore, authors should consider power. We welcome comments or suggestions on this subject.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Yellowstone’s birds are vital

Traveling through Yellowstone National Park (YNP), visitors frequently stop to enjoy the park’s birds: small songbirds flitting about the willows, sandhill cranes engaged in their ritual mating dances, or myriad species of waterfowl loafing in one of the park's many wetlands. Typically while driving the roads of YNP, a majority of visitors consider a stopped car and raised binoculars a sure sign of some large mammal sighting. Bird watchers in YNP are familiar with this expectation and steel themselves to deliver the tough news. Certainly the park boasts its share of large charismatic birds, including trumpeter swans and bald and golden eagles; however, next to the bison, wolves, bears, and elk that bring so many visitors to Yellowstone, the park’s birds often seem overlooked.

Wyoming

Environmental presence and persistence of pharmaceuticals: An overview

Emerging contaminants (ECs) in the environment – that is, chemicals with domestic, municipal, industrial, or agricultural sources that are not commonly monitored but may have the potential for adverse environmental effects – is a rapidly growing field of research. The use of “emerging” is not intended to infer that the presence of these compounds in the environment is new. These chemicals have been released into the environment as long as they have been in production or, in the case of hormones and other endogenous compounds, since the rise of animal life. What is emerging is the interest by the scientific and lay communities in the presence of these chemicals in the environment, the analytical capabilities required for detection, and the subtle effects that very small concentrations of these chemicals appear to have on aquatic biota. In December 2006, Environmental Science & Technology devoted an entire special issue (volume 40, number 23) to the topic of ECs, illustrating the increased interest in the subject. Within the EGs, one particular class that has seen a substantial increase in research over the past 10 years is pharmaceuticals and personal-care products (PPCPs). This increased research interest can be demonstrated by several means, including requests for proposals from funding agencies, but the clearest indication of a focused effort to understand the introduction, transformation, and potential health and environmental effects of PPCPs and ECs, in general, is the number of published reports. This increase can be shown by examining six environmental journals that regularly publish PPCP-related papers – Chemosphere , Environmental Science & Technology , Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry , Science of the Total Environment , Water Research , and Water Science and Technology . In 1998 there were 22 papers published on pharmaceuticals, antibiotics, or drugs in these 6 journals; by 2006, this number increased sixfold to 132 papers (Figure 1.1). This growth can be attributed to a number of factors. The presence of pharmaceuticals in surface-water samples from Europe and the United States was documented in several sentinel papers. These ground-breaking works encouraged other scientists to examine the rivers, streams, lakes, and reservoirs in their regions for such chemicals. In addition, the intense public attention paid to news reports on the environmental detections of these chemicals and possible effects of aquatic life has made this issue visible to the wastewater-treatment, drinking-water treatment, and regulatory communities. This has driven the funding bodies associated with these communities to fund studies or request proposals that address the presence, fate, and effects of PPCPs in aquatic systems. The release of the first comprehensive reconnaissance of pharmaceuticals and other wastewater contaminants in the United States provides an example of the intense media interest in this topic. Within 6 days on online publication of this study, 72 newspapers across the United States had published articles describing the results, either locally written or based on international media syndicate reports. There also was substantial concurrent coverage by local and national radio and television outlets, including the Cable News Network, ABC World News Tonight , and National Public Radio. A substantial fraction of these news stories may be attributable to press releases and media briefings prior to publication. However, the interest by television and print journalists in reporting the results of a peer-reviewed journal article to the general public was motivated by the recognition that describing the presence of PPCPs in water supplies would be of interest to the public. To better convey the results of the study published by Koplin et al. to the public, a separate general-interest fact sheet was published to summarize the important points of the study. Because PPCPs are commonly and widely used by individuals, there is likely a preexisting, personal identification with these compounds that does not occur for the wide range of other organic and inorganic contaminants whose presence in the environment has previously been described. This greater public “name recognition” makes itself known through the media to the regulatory and technical community and has prompted interest in sponsoring research that defines the composition and concentrations of PPCPs in potential sources and their fate and effects following relase into the environment. Independent of the drivers that potentially fuel the interest in studies of PPCPs, it is clear that PPCP research has grown beyond surface-water studies to examine issues such as: • Presence in other matrices, such as groundwater, landfill leachates, sediments, and biosolids. • Environmental transport and fate in surface water, groundwater, and soils amended with reclaimed water or biosolids. • PPCP source elucidation, such as wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), and aquaculture. • Removal during wastewater and drinking-water treatment. • Effects on aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, and human health. The chapters in this book provide an extensive examination of current environmental pharmaceutical research and are divided into three sections: “Occurrence and Analysis of Pharmaceuticals in the Environment,” “Environment Fate and Transformations of Veterinary Pharmaceuticals,” and “treatment of Pharmaceuticals in Drinking Water and Wastewater.” The purpose of this introductory overview chapter is to outline current (2004-2006) knowledge about the presence and concentration of PPCPs as described in the published literature. Previous reviews should be consulted for discussions on pre-2004 publications. Those reviews will provide the reader with a comprehensive introduction to the topic of PPCPs in the environment. This chapter describes the sources of PPCPs and other organic contaminants often associated with human wastewater into the environment, the range of concentrations present in various environmental compartments, and the potential routes of removal/sequestration. An overview of the sources and fate of veterinary pharmaceuticals will be discussed in Chapter 5, “Fate and Transport of Veterinary Medicines in the Soil Environment.”

Book chapter

Overview of the effects and influence of the activity of Mount St. Helens in the 1980s

The cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980, made an enormous impact on the science of volcanology. The eruption was in daylight in clear weather, which provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate relations among observations, products, and effects of a large explosive eruption. The May 18 events and subsequent activity stimulated perhaps the most intensive studies ever made at an active composite volcano, leading to greatly enhanced insights into both geologic and hydrologic processes operative in explosive volcanism. The eruption also disrupted much of the social and economic fabric of the Pacific Northwest. Volcanologists were called upon to explain the activity, in layman's terms, to government and corporate officials, the news media, schools, and the public at large. People eventually learned to live with the volcano and its uncertainties, and volcanologists better learned their role in helping society deal with a major natural disaster. Difficulties encountered at volcanic crises elsewhere in the world in the 1980s demonstrate that these are hard lessons. In future years, a paramount challenge for scientists will be to help society apply what has been learned at Mount St. Helens to crises both nearby and far away.

Washington

Exploring the news media and scientific conversations around water quality in a water-rich basin of the United States

Community concerns about water availability vary depending on local economic, regulatory, environmental, and ecological considerations. In water-rich basins, water quality is often the focus of community concerns. As such, understanding community priorities in the context of water quality is crucial for informing scientists working in water-rich basins. In this work, we compiled over 6,500 local news articles (public discourse) and 190 scientific abstracts (scientific discourse) related to water-quality issues in the water-rich Illinois River Basin (ILRB) published between 2018 and 2022. We applied a Structural Topic Model (STM) to identify key water-quality topics within both datasets and explore the variability of newspaper topics geographically across the basin. Prevalent topics in both the public (local news articles) and scientific (abstracts) discourses were agriculture, drinking water quality, PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances), and river ecosystem/fish. Topics exclusive to public discourse included water infrastructure, community development, and public water supply, while the scientific discourse focused more heavily on a wider range of agricultural issues. Furthermore, the public discourse varied geographically across the basin. Some topics are correlated with land use or urban/rural divides within the basin, and the frequency of many topics clearly varied across state (political) boundaries. Understanding and quantifying public and scientific discourses related to water-quality are important for scientists and water managers working in the basin to improve communication of critical science to the public.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin

To the editor: Reply confuses newsprint with media

“Is Science in Danger of Sanctifying the Wolf” (Mech, 2012), contends that some scientists have claimed that wolf (Canis lupus) restoration has led to many ecological benefits lower in the food chain but that other scientists have questioned the evidence for those claims. Furthermore, my article claims that “the media become complicit [in promoting positive studies about wolves] by immediately publicizing such studies (Table 1)….” Dr. Bruskotter’s letter (Bruskotter, 2012) contends that Houston et al. (2010) refute that statement. However, Houston et al. (2010) covered only newsprint, including many local newspapers dating back to 1999 before most of the scientific articles I mentioned were published. My article said nothing about newsprint or news media. It stated “media” which of course includes radio, TV, blogs, websites, magazines, social media, etc. These types of media reach a wider and often different audience than newsprint. The Houston et al. (2010)analysis included none of these latter types of media so does not refute my statements.

Biological Conservation

A primer on water

When you open the faucet you expect water to flow. And you expect it to flow night or day, summer or winter, whether you want to fill a glass or water the lawn. It should be clean and pure, without any odor. You have seen or read about places where the water doesn't have these qualities. You may have lived in a city where you were allowed to water the lawn only during a few hours of certain days. We know a large town where the water turns brown after every big rainstorm. Beginning shortly after World War II, large areas in the Southwestern United States had a 10-year drought, and newspapers published a lot of information about its effects. Some people say that the growing demand for water will cause serious shortages over much of the country in the next 10 to 40 years. But it has always been true that while water wells and springs dry up in some places, floods may be occurring in other places at the same time. Nearly every month news stories are published describing floods somewhere in the country. In fact, every year, on the average, 75,000 persons are forced from their homes by floods. In some years, as in 1951 when the lower Kansas River experienced a great flood, half a million people are affected. To understand the reasons for such recurring distress, it is necessary to know something about rivers and about the flat land or flood plain that borders the river. Interest in water and related problems is growing as our population increases and as the use of water becomes steadily greater. To help meet this heightened interest in general information about water and its use and control is the reason this primer was written. The primer is in two parts. The first part tells about hydrology, or the science that concerns the relation of water to our earth, and the second part describes the development of water supplies and the use of water. The Geological Survey is publishing this primer in nontechnical language in the hope that it will enable the general reader to understand the facts about water as a part of nature, and that by having this understanding the people can solve their water problems. We, as representatives of the Geological Survey, acknowledge with thanks the helpful suggestions made on an early draft by Marion Loizeaux, Maria Lord Converse, Constance Foley, Laura R. Langbein, and Bruce C. Leopold. We are also indebted to various geologists and engineers of the Survey for their discerning critical reviews.

General Interest Publication

Hazard information management during the autumn 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens volcano, Washington

The 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens quickly caught the attention of government agencies as well as the international news media and the public. Immediate concerns focused on a repeat of the catastrophic landslide and blast event of May 18, 1980, which remains a vivid memory for many individuals. Within several days of the onset of accelerating seismicity, media inquiries increased exponentially. Personnel at the U.S. Geological Survey, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and the Gifford Pinchot National Forest soon handled hundreds of press inquiries and held several press briefings per day. About one week into the event, a Joint Information Center was established to help maintain a consistent hazard message and to provide a centralized information source about volcanic activity, hazards, area closures, and media briefings. Scientists, public-affairs specialists, and personnel from emergency-management, health, public-safety, and land-management agencies answered phones, helped in press briefings and interviews, and managed media access to colleagues working on science and safety issues. For scientists, in addition to managing the cycle of daily fieldwork, challenges included (1) balancing accurate interpretations of data under crisis conditions with the need to share information quickly, (2) articulating uncertainties for a variety of volcanic scenarios, (3) minimizing scientific jargon, and (4) frequently updating and effectively distributing talking points. Success of hazard information management during a volcanic crisis depends largely on scientists’ clarity of communication and thorough preplanning among interagency partners. All parties must commit to after-action evaluation and improvement of communication plans, incorporating lessons learned during each event.

Washington

Island outlook: Warm and swampy

In his In Depth News story “Warming may not swamp islands” (1 August, p. 496 ), C. Pala argues that “coral reefs supporting sandy atoll islands will grow and rise in tandem with the sea,” based largely on studies that showed stable Pacific-island area over recent decades ( 1 – 4 ). He suggests that recent land losses are driven mostly by bad choices and that islanders are being affected “for the same reason as millions of people on the continents: because they live too close to shore.” We disagree with these conclusions.

Science

NO news is no new news

In the paper 'NO News', Preston et al. (2004) make a number of erroneous assumptions regarding nitrogen oxide chemistry. These authors also present some very significant misinterpretations of previous research into the effects of various nitrogen oxides on germination of post-fire followers. Methodological differences between the study by Preston et al. (2004) and previous work are also problematic, such as using NO-donors in solution versus the use of direct application of various nitrogen oxides in the gaseous phase. A closer review of these studies, with the proper understanding of nitrogen oxide chemistry, and interpretations of the available literature, would lead to the conclusion that, contrary to the authors' assertions, the Preston et al. (2004) study supports, rather than refutes, earlier findings by Keeley and Fotheringham (1997, 1998a, b, 2000). ?? CAB International 2005.

Seed Science Research

The story of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory -- A remarkable first 100 years of tracking eruptions and earthquakes

The year 2012 marks the centennial of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the support and cooperation of visionaries, financiers, scientists, and other individuals and organizations, HVO has successfully achieved 100 years of continuous monitoring of Hawaiian volcanoes. As we celebrate this milestone anniversary, we express our sincere mahalo—thanks—to the people who have contributed to and participated in HVO’s mission during this past century. First and foremost, we owe a debt of gratitude to the late Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., the geologist whose vision and efforts led to the founding of HVO. We also acknowledge the pioneering contributions of the late Frank A. Perret, who began the continuous monitoring of Kīlauea in 1911, setting the stage for Jaggar, who took over the work in 1912. Initial support for HVO was provided by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Carnegie Geophysical Laboratory, which financed the initial cache of volcano monitoring instruments and Perret’s work in 1911. The Hawaiian Volcano Research Association, a group of Honolulu businessmen organized by Lorrin A. Thurston, also provided essential funding for HVO’s daily operations starting in mid-1912 and continuing for several decades. Since HVO’s beginning, the University of Hawaiʻi (UH), called the College of Hawaii until 1920, has been an advocate of HVO’s scientific studies. We have benefited from collaborations with UH scientists at both the Hilo and Mänoa campuses and look forward to future cooperative efforts to better understand how Hawaiian volcanoes work. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated HVO continuously since 1947. Before then, HVO was under the administration of various Federal agencies—the U.S. Weather Bureau, at the time part of the Department of Agriculture, from 1919 to 1924; the USGS, which first managed HVO from 1924 to 1935; and the National Park Service from 1935 to 1947. For 76 of its first 100 years, HVO has been part of the USGS, the Nation’s premier Earth science agency. It currently operates under the direction of the USGS Volcano Science Center, which now supports five volcano observatories covering six U.S. areas—Hawaiʻi (HVO), Alaska and the Northern Mariana Islands (Alaska Volcano Observatory), Washington and Oregon (Cascades Volcano Observatory), California (California Volcano Observatory), and the Yellowstone region (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory). Although the National Park Service (NPS) managed HVO for only 12 years, HVO has enjoyed a close working relationship with Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park (named Hawaii National Park until 1961) since the park’s founding in 1916. Today, as in past years, the USGS and NPS work together to ensure the safety and education of park visitors. We are grateful to all park employees, particularly Superintendent Cindy Orlando and Chief Ranger Talmadge Magno and their predecessors, for their continuing support of HVO’s mission. HVO also works closely with the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense. During volcanic and earthquake crises, we have appreciated the support of civil defense staff, especially that of Harry Kim and Quince Mento, who administered the agency during highly stressful episodes of Kīlauea's ongoing eruption. Our work in remote areas on Hawaiʻi’s active volcanoes is possible only with the able assistance of Hawaiʻi County and private pilots who have safely flown HVO staff to eruption sites through the decades. A special mahalo goes to David Okita, who has been HVO’s principal helicopter pilot for more than two decades. Many commercial and Civil Air Patrol pilots have also assisted HVO by reporting their observations during various eruptive events. Hawaiʻi’s news media—print, television, radio, and online sources—do an excellent job of distributing volcano and earthquake information to the public. Their assistance is invaluable to HVO, especially during times of crisis. HVO’s efforts to provide timely and accurate scientific information about Hawaiian volcanoes and earthquakes succeed only because of you, our receptive and keenly aware public. By following the activity of Hawaiʻi’s active volcanoes through our daily eruption updates posted on the HVO website, viewing HVO webcam images, reading our weekly “Volcano Watch” articles, and attending our public lectures, you help us to ensure that you can live safely with Hawaiʻi’s dynamic volcanoes. To everyone who has shared in HVO’s reaching this milestone—100 years of continuous volcano monitoring—we extend our deepest gratitude. Mahalo nui loa!

Hawai'i

A model of strength

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Science