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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Long-term ocean observing for international capacity development around tsunami early warning

The 2004 magnitude (M) 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake in the Indian Ocean triggered the deadliest tsunami ever, killing more than 230,000 people. In response, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) established three additional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs) for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System: for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), for the Indian Ocean, and for the Northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Connected Seas. Along with the ICG for the Pacific Ocean, which was established in 1965, one of the goals of the new ICGs was to improve earthquake and tsunami monitoring and early warning. This need was further demonstrated by the 2011 Great East Japan (Tōhoku-oki) earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people, and other destructive tsunamis that occurred in the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Chile, Indonesia, and Peru. In response to the call to action by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), as well as the desired safe ocean outcome (von Hillebrandt-Andrade et al., 2021), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO approved the Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme in June 2021. One of its goals is to develop the capability to issue actionable alerts for tsunamis from all sources with minimum uncertainty within 10 minutes (Angove et al., 2019). While laudable, this goal presents complexities. Currently, warning depends on quick detection as well as the location and initial magnitude estimates of an earthquake that may generate a tsunami. Other factors that affect tsunamis, such as the faulting mechanism (how the faults slide past each other) and areal extent of the earthquake, currently take at least 20–30 minutes to forecast and are still subject to large uncertainties. Hence, agencies charged with tsunami early warning need to broadcast public alerts within minutes after an earthquake occurs but may struggle to meet this 10-minute goal without further technological advances, some of which are outlined in this article. To reduce loss of life through adequate tsunami warning requires global ocean-based seismic, sea level, and geodetic initiatives to detect high-impact earthquakes and tsunamis, combined with sufficient communication and education so that people know how to respond when they receive alerts and warnings. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines an early warning system as “a set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss” (UNISDR, 2012). In short, a successful early warning system requires technology coupled with human factors (Kelman and Glantz, 2014). In this article, we explore case studies from Japan and Canada, where scientists are leading the way in incorporating ocean observing capabilities in their early warning systems. We also explore advancements and challenges in the Caribbean, an area with a complex tectonic environment that would benefit greatly from increased global ocean observing capabilities. We also explore physical and social science interventions necessary to reduce loss of life.

Oceanography↗
USGS2023

Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change

Resource managers have rarely accounted for evolutionary dynamics in the design or implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. We brought the research and management communities together to identify challenges and opportunities for applying evidence from evolutionary science to support on-the-ground actions intended to enhance species' evolutionary potential. We amalgamated input from natural-resource practitioners and interdisciplinary scientists to identify information needs, current knowledge that can fill those needs, and future avenues for research. Three focal areas that can guide engagement include: (1) recognizing when to act, (2) understanding the feasibility of assessing evolutionary potential, and (3) identifying best management practices. Although researchers commonly propose using molecular methods to estimate genetic diversity and gene flow as key indicators of evolutionary potential, we offer guidance on several additional attributes (and their proxies) that may also guide decision-making, particularly in the absence of genetic data. Finally, we outline existing decision-making frameworks that can help managers compare alternative strategies for supporting evolutionary potential, with the goal of increasing the effective use of evolutionary information, particularly for species of conservation concern. We caution, however, that arguing over nuance can generate confusion; instead, dedicating increased focus on a decision-relevant evidence base may better lend itself to climate adaptation actions.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2019

Adaptive Management and Monitoring

This is a chapter in a technical report that is the second of two works describing longer-term actions to implement policies and strategies for preventing and suppressing rangeland fire and restoring rangeland landscapes affected by fire in the Western United States. The first part, Chambers et al 2017, "Science Framework for conservation and restoration of the sagebrush biome: Linking the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy to long-term strategic conservation actions. Part 1. Science basis and applications" provides information and decision support tools. This part 2 describes application and use of part 1 to resource managers.

Report↗
USGS2014

Great Lakes restoration success through science: U.S. Geological Survey accomplishments 2010 through 2013

The Great Lakes (Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario) are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth and serve as an important source of drinking water, transportation, power, and recreational opportunities for the United States and Canada. They also support an abundant commercial and recreational fishery, are crucial for agriculture, and are essential to the economic vitality of the region. The Great Lakes support a wealth of biological diversity, including over 200 globally rare plants and animals and more than 40 species that are found nowhere else in the world. However, more than a century of environmental degradation has taken a substantial toll on the Great Lakes. To stimulate and promote the goal of a healthy Great Lakes region, President Obama and Congress created the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) in 2009. The GLRI is an interagency collaboration that seeks to address the most significant environmental problems in the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI is composed of five focus areas that address these issues: Cleaning up toxic substances and Areas of Concern, Preventing and controlling invasive species, Promoting nearshore health, Protecting and restoring habitat and wildlife, Tracking progress and working with partners. As of August 2013, the GLRI had funded more than 1,500 projects and programs of the highest priority to meet immediate cleanup, restoration, and protection needs. These projects use scientific analyses as the basis for identifying the restoration needs and priorities for the GLRI. Results from the science, monitoring, and other on-the-ground actions by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide the scientific information needed to help guide the Great Lakes restoration efforts. This document highlights a selection of USGS projects for each of the five focus areas through 2013, demonstrating the importance of science for restoration success. Additional information for these and other USGS projects that are important for Great Lakes restoration is available at http://cida.usgs.gov/glri/glri-catalog/ .

Great Lakes↗
USGS2024

Natural resource management confronts the growing scale and severity of ecosystem responses to drought and wildfire

Intensification of drought and wildfire associated with climate change has triggered widespread ecosystem stress and transformation. Natural resource managers are on the frontline of these changes, yet their perspectives on whether management actions match the scale and align with the severity of ecosystem responses to improve outcomes are not well understood. To provide new insight, a new conceptual framework that linked scale and severity was tested by conducting interviews and surveys of staff associated with natural resource management on the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States (U.S.), which contains the highest concentration of public lands in the contiguous U.S. Results indicate that drought was experienced more frequently than wildfire, and both stressors were happening at large scales and moderate to abrupt timeframes with a high degree of impact to ecosystems. Ecosystem responses were perceived to increase in severity under future climate change with limited capacity to recover, and a majority of resource managers expressed that they had low control to shape these trajectories. Although management strategies to address drought and wildfire were well recognized, adaptation-specific actions remained unclear or had limited financial and staffing resources to support implementation. Additional effort could help close a growing misalignment between management actions and natural resource responses, including effective science communication, refined information tailored to meet adaptation goals at management-relevant spatiotemporal scales, and opportunities for adaptive management that can proactively address intensification of drought and wildfire.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2016

Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative strategic plan 2015 - 2025

The Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NWB LCC) is a voluntary, diverse, self-directed management-science partnership, informing and promoting integrated science, sustainable natural and cultural resource management, and conservation to address impacts of climate change and other stressors within and across ecosystems. The NWB LCC area includes parts of Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and British Columbia. Our partnership reflects both the broad geographic scope and an extensive array of active and engaged participants including resource management organizations, government representatives, policy makers, Tribes and First Nations, industry leaders, researchers, non-governmental organizations, and research/education institutions. Bringing together diverse partners will help assure the northwest boreal is a functioning, sustainable landscape. We live in an era of profound conservation challenges, including the loss and fragmentation of habitats, genetic isolation, invasive species, and unnatural wildfire. The effects of rapidly changing climate are already evident on the landscape. In these circumstances, it is imperative that natural resource management agencies, science providers, Tribes, First Nations, conservation organizations, and other stakeholders work together to understand the drivers and impacts of landscape change and to determine how best to address those challenges. Further, it is essential that the public and communities receive clear communication about the vision and activities of the NWB LCC. Open public access to NWB LCC activities and products will promote acceptance and support of the science that guides potential changes in management action and conservation strategy. This strategic plan provides a great opportunity for the NWB LCC to share our approach and intentions to the LCC members, collaborators, communities, and the public at large.

Report↗
USGS2022

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2026

Successes and opportunities for solutions-oriented conservation research: Lessons learned from avian science

Conservation science struggles with an ongoing divide between research and action. Given its history of broad public engagement and multi-scale management coordination, avian conservation typifies many of the challenges, successes, and opportunities across the broader field of conservation and is rich with examples that may guide solutions-oriented conservation science. In semi-structured focus groups composed of bird conservation scientists and practitioners from various backgrounds, we discussed the definition, characteristics, and examples of solutions-oriented conservation science. Our discussions highlighted several examples where successful application of avian conservation science led to change in programs, policy, regulations, and social systems, including several with co-benefits for local communities. These successes were characterized by communication, collaboration, and co-development with local communities, decision-makers, practitioners, and Indigenous communities. We identified remaining opportunities for improvement, including aligning incentives and priorities between research and practice, working across disciplines to mobilize solutions, dismantling barriers to inclusion, and emphasizing the importance of relationship-building in conservation science. We outline suggestions that researchers can use to incorporate these lessons from solutions-oriented avian conservation science into training and mentoring programs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2014

The importance of context dependency for understanding the effects of low flow events on fish

The natural hydrology of streams and rivers has been extensively altered by dam construction, water diversion, and climate change. An increased frequency of low-flow events will affect fish by changing habitat availability, resource availability, and reproductive cues. I reviewed the literature to characterize the approaches taken to assess low-flow events and fish, the main effects of low-flow events on fish, and the associated mechanistic drivers. Most studies are focused on temperate streams and are comparative in nature. Decreased stream flow is associated with decreased survival, growth, and abundance of fish populations and shifts in community composition, but effects are variable. This variability in effects is probably caused by context dependence. I propose 3 main sources of context dependence that drive the variation in fish responses to low-flow events: attributes of the low-flow event, attributes of the habitat, and attributes of the fish. Awareness of these sources of context dependence can help managers interpret and explain data, predict vulnerability of fish communities, and prioritize appropriate management actions.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2009

U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative

Southwest Wyoming's wildlife and habitat resources are increasingly affected by energy and urban/exurban development, climate change, and other key drivers of ecosystem change. To ensure that southwest Wyoming's wildlife populations and habitats persist in the face of development and other changes, a consortium of public resource-management agencies proposed the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI), the overall goal of which is to implement conservation actions. As the principal agency charged with conducting WLCI science, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a Science Strategy for the WLCI. Workshops were held for all interested parties to identify and refine the most pressing management needs for achieving WLCI goals. Research approaches for addressing those needs include developing conceptual models for understanding ecosystem function, identifying key drivers of change affecting WLCI ecosystems, and conducting scientific monitoring and experimental studies to better understand ecosystems processes, cumulative effects of change, and effectiveness of habitat treatments. The management needs drive an iterative, three-phase framework developed for structuring and growing WLCI science efforts: Phase I entails synthesizing existing information to assess current conditions, determining what is already known about WLCI ecosystems, and providing a foundation for future work; Phase II entails conducting targeted research and monitoring to address gaps in data and knowledge during Phase I; and Phase III entails integrating new knowledge into WLCI activities and coordinating WLCI partners and collaborators. Throughout all three phases, information is managed and made accessible to interested parties and used to guide and improve management and conservation actions, future habitat treatments, best management practices, and other conservation activities.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

Advancing monitoring approaches to enhance tidal Chesapeake Bay habitat assessment for submerged aquatic vegetation, water clarity, chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen

Water quality monitoring capacity has been declining for the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) at a time when information needs are growing, and data gaps exist to address critical decision-support for managers. The CBP Scientific Technical Assessment and Reporting Team is leading a Principal’s Staff Committee requested gap analyses toward understanding support needed to improve water quality monitoring and analysis programming. Advanced technologies and alternative monitoring approaches in the form of satellite-based measurements, Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms for data interpretation, continuous water quality in-situ sensor arrays, and community science efforts offer a growing portfolio of valuable opportunities for expanding data collections and analysis program capacities. However, since 1985, each of these options are examples of growing opportunities to enhance water quality assessments yet has seen limited adoption into elements of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring programs. Where new technologies have been adopted (e.g., shallow water continuous water quality monitoring), such temporally rich data streams have supported Bay health insights yet had limited use in regulatory water quality criteria assessment. This Scientific Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) supported workshop provided the ideal forum for engaging our CBP partnership regarding the maturity of new and evolving monitoring and analysis capacities to address program information needs while appreciating limitations with adopting new tools and approaches. Improving natural resources monitoring efficiency and effectiveness will expand the scientific and technical foundations for making robust, strategic choices on decisions for CBP Partnership community-based priorities, policies, and management actions. Workshop findings and recommendations reflect progress in science, technology, and analyses addressing long-standing programmatic limitations in data collection and analysis capacities. State-of-the-science updates highlighted in the workshop span the spectrum of efforts representing improvements, successes, remaining challenges toward operationalizing protocols, and guidance toward research, or adoption and implementation by monitoring programs.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗
USGS2010

Strategic Science for Coral Ecosystems 2007-2011

Shallow and deep coral ecosystems are being imperiled by a combination of stressors. Climate change, unsustainable fishing practices, and disease are transforming coral communities at regional to global scales. At local levels, excessive amounts of sediments, nutrients, and contaminants are also impacting the many benefits that healthy coral ecosystems provide. This Plan, Strategic Science for Coral Ecosystems, describes the information needs of resource managers and summarizes current research being conducted by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners. It outlines important research actions that need to be undertaken over the next five years to achieve more accurate forecasting of future conditions and develop more effective decision-support tools to adaptively manage coral ecosystems. The overarching outcome of this Plan, if fully implemented, would be in transferring relevant knowledge to decision-makers, enabling them to better protect and sustain coral ecosystem services. These services include sources of food, essential habitat for fisheries and protected species, protection of coastlines from wave damage and erosion, recreation, and cultural values for indigenous communities. The USGS has a long history of research and monitoring experience in studying ancient and living coral communities and serving many stakeholders. The research actions in this Plan build on the USGS legacy of conducting integrated multidisciplinary science to address complex environmental issues. This Plan is responsive to Federal legislation and authorities and a variety of external and internal drivers that include the President's Ocean Action Plan, the recommendations of the Coral Reef Task Force, the information needs of Bureaus in the Department of Interior, the USGS Bureau Science Strategy (USGS 2007) and the formal plans of several USGS Programs. To achieve this Plan's desired outcomes will require increased funding and more effective coordination and collaboration among USGS managers and scientists within a national and international framework of partnerships in coral ecosystem science.

Circular↗
USGS2024

Climate change

Amphibian ecology and distribution are strongly correlated with climate. Regional patterns of amphibian biodiversity are intimately linked to temperature, evapotranspiration rate, and clines in humidity. While amphibians are and will continue to be adversely affected by recent and projected changes in climate, research suggests that adaptation may happen more slowly than the expected rate of environmental shifts. Here, we review conservation-relevant aspects of both realised and potential impacts of climate change, and outline options for amphibian conservation planning and management. Recent advances in our understanding of climate change impacts on amphibians have primarily stemmed from ecological modelling and direct assessment of climatic tolerances and dispersal capacities through physiological assays, landscape genetics, and dispersal tracking. Anthropogenic climate change has already altered amphibian assemblages and their impacts on ecosystem functioning and services. Because of known and hypothesised ecological tolerances, many amphibians might have reached or exceeded most limits in their ability to adapt to or tolerate further climate change, however the uncertainties are substantial. Implementation of conservation planning and action can help to forestall severe impacts of environmental shifts. Scientific research and science-based decision-making and policy development have already lagged; the current pace of conservation planning and action may not allow for effective identification of threats and mitigation. An increased response rate could help to avert further loss of amphibian biodiversity and decay of ecosystem services. The lack of basic field research in natural habitats continues to be an underlying challenge. We suggest priority areas of research to include the development of biologically realistic predictive models of amphibian response to climate change, field verification of model estimates and key parameters, population monitoring across multiple sites and taxa, and a combination of efforts within and across ecosystems to understand how impacts of climate change can be better mitigated.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Transforming ecosystems: When, where, and how to restore contaminated sites

Chemical contamination has impaired ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the provisioning of functions and services. This has spurred a movement to restore contaminated ecosystems and develop and implement national and international regulations that require it. Nevertheless, ecological restoration remains a young and rapidly growing discipline and its intersection with toxicology is even more nascent and underdeveloped. Consequently, we provide guidance to scientists and practitioners on when, where, and how to restore contaminated ecosystems. Although restoration has many benefits, it also can be expensive, and in many cases systems can recover without human intervention. Hence, the first question we address is: “When should we restore contaminated ecosystems?” Second, we provide suggestions on what to restore—biodiversity, functions, services, all 3, or something else—and where to restore given expected changes to habitats driven by global climate change. Finally, we provide guidance on how to restore contaminated ecosystems. To do this, we analyze critical aspects of the literature dealing with the ecology of restoring contaminated ecosystems. Additionally, we review approaches for translating the science of restoration to on-the-ground actions, which includes discussions of market incentives and the finances of restoration, stakeholder outreach and governance models for ecosystem restoration, and working with contractors to implement restoration plans. By explicitly considering the mechanisms and strategies that maximize the success of the restoration of contaminated sites, we hope that our synthesis serves to increase and improve collaborations between restoration ecologists and ecotoxicologists and set a roadmap for the restoration of contaminated ecosystems.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λ mean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87–1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2005

Integrated fire science in the Rocky Mountains

Fire is an important ecological process that has helped shape western landscapes. Wildfire suppression and other management practices may have altered historic fire regimes in ecosystems adapted to frequent, low-severity fires. Compounding this problem is the encroachment of homes into fire-prone areas. Fire affects a number of abiotic and biotic components of ecosystems, and had many economic and social ramifications. The full range of consequences, however, remains poorly understood. To implement sound fire management, managers require improved understanding of fire effects on public lands. Although the importance of fire to ecosystem function is widely recognized, wildfire science has not been fully integrated into management actions. An interdisciplinary approach is essential to integrate and evaluate tradeoffs among fire management policies and practices.

Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2010

Southeast Ecological Science Center

Aquatic ecosystems, from deep sea reefs and coastal marshes to freshwater springs and wetlands, are home to diverse assemblages of life. These commercially and ecologically important systems are part of our national heritage, and are often treasured places or refuges that protect rare or threatened species. In the water-rich Southeastern United States, managers face the challenge of understanding how water and land use affect the region's aquatic life. The Southeast Ecological Science Center (SESC) helps address that challenge by providing objective science that can be used to evaluate proposed actions and develop management strategies.

Fact Sheet↗