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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Assessing the risk persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2011

Evaluation of long-term gas hydrate production testing locations on the Alaska North Slope

The results of short duration formation tests in northern Alaska and Canada have further documented the energy resource potential of gas hydrates and justified the need for long-term gas hydrate production testing. Additional data acquisition and long-term production testing could improve the understanding of the response of naturally-occurring gas hydrate to depressurization-induced or thermal-, chemical-, and/or mechanical-stimulated dissociation of gas hydrate into producible gas. The Eileen gas hydrate accumulation located in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area in northern Alaska has become a focal point for gas hydrate geologic and production studies. BP Exploration (Alaska) Incorporated and ConocoPhillips have each established research partnerships with U.S. Department of Energy to assess the production potential of gas hydrates in northern Alaska. A critical goal of these efforts is to identify the most suitable site for production testing. A total of seven potential locations in the Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk, and Milne Point production units were identified and assessed relative to their suitability as a long-term gas hydrate production test site. The test site assessment criteria included the analysis of the geologic risk associated with encountering reservoirs for gas hydrate testing. The site selection process also dealt with the assessment of the operational/logistical risk associated with each of the potential test sites. From this review, a site in the Prudhoe Bay production unit was determined to be the best location for extended gas hydrate production testing. The work presented in this report identifies the key features of the potential test site in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area, and provides new information on the nature of gas hydrate occurrence and potential impact of production testing on existing infrastructure at the most favorable sites. These data were obtained from well log analysis, geological correlation and mapping, and numerical simulation.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Evaluation of long-term gas hydrate production testing locations on the Alaska North Slope

The results of short-duration formation tests in northern Alaska and Canada have further documented the energy-resource potential of gas hydrates and have justified the need for long-term gas-hydrate-production testing. Additional data acquisition and long-term production testing could improve the understanding of the response of naturally occurring gas hydrate to depressurization-induced or thermal-, chemical-, or mechanical-stimulated dissociation of gas hydrate into producible gas. The Eileen gashydrate accumulation located in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area in northern Alaska has become a focal point for gas-hydrate geologic and production studies. BP Exploration (Alaska) Incorporated and ConocoPhillips have each established research partnerships with the US Department of Energy to assess the production potential of gas hydrates in northern Alaska. A critical goal of these efforts is to identify the most suitable site for production testing. A total of seven potential locations in the Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk River, and Milne Point production units were identified and assessed relative to their suitability as a long-term gas-hydrate-production test sites. The test-site-assessment criteria included the analysis of the geologic risk associated with encountering reservoirs for gas-hydrate testing. The site-selection process also dealt with the assessment of the operational/logistical risk associated with each of the potential test sites. From this review, a site in the Prudhoe Bay production unit was determined to be the best location for extended gas-hydrate-production testing. The work presented in this report identifies the key features of the potential test site in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area and provides new information on the nature of gas-hydrate occurrence and the potential impact of production testing on existing infrastructure at the most favorable sites. These data were obtained from well-log analysis, geological correlation and mapping, and numerical simulation.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Marsh wrens as bioindicators of mercury in wetlands of Great Salt Lake: do blood and feathers reflect site-specific exposure risk to bird reproduction?

Nonlethal sampling of bird blood and feathers are among the more common ways of estimating the risk of mercury exposure to songbird reproduction. The implicit assumption is that mercury concentrations in blood or feathers of individuals captured in a given area are correlated with mercury concentrations in eggs from the same area. Yet, this assumption is rarely tested. We evaluated mercury concentrations in blood, feathers, and eggs of marsh wrens in wetlands of Great Salt Lake, Utah, and, at two spatial scales, specifically tested the assumption that mercury concentrations in blood and feather samples from birds captured in a defined area were predictive of mercury concentrations in eggs collected in the same area. Mercury concentrations in blood were not correlated with mercury concentrations in eggs collected within the same wetland unit, and were poorly correlated with mercury concentrations in eggs collected at the smaller home range spatial scale of analysis. Moreover, mercury exposure risk, as estimated via tissue concentrations, differed among wetland units depending upon whether blood or egg mercury concentrations were sampled. Mercury concentrations in feathers also were uncorrelated with mercury concentrations in eggs, and were poorly correlated with mercury concentrations in blood. These results demonstrate the potential for contrasting management actions that may be implemented based solely on the specific avian tissue that is sampled, and highlight the importance of developing avian tissues as biomonitoring tools for assessing local risk of mercury exposure to bird reproduction.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2007

An evaluation of the effects of conservation and fishery enhancement hatcheries on wild populations of salmon

The historical, political and scientific aspects of salmon hatchery programmes designed to enhance fishery production, or to recover endangered populations, are reviewed. We start by pointing out that the establishment of hatcheries has been a political response to societal demands for harvest and conservation; given this social context, we then critically examined the levels of activity, the biological risks, and the economic analysis associated with salmon hatchery programmes. A rigorous analysis of the impacts of hatchery programmes was hindered by the lack of standardized data on release sizes and survival rates at all ecological scales, and since hatchery programme objectives are rarely defined, it was also difficult to measure their effectiveness at meeting release objectives. Debates on the genetic effects of hatchery programmes on wild fish have been dominated by whether correct management practices can reduce negative outcomes, but we noted that there has been an absence of programmatic research approaches addressing this important issue. Competitive interactions between hatchery and wild fish were observed to be complex, but studies researching approaches to reduce these interactions at all ecological scales during the entire salmon life history have been rare, and thus are not typically considered in hatchery management. Harvesting of salmon released from fishery enhancement hatcheries likely impacts vulnerable wild populations; managers have responded to this problem by mass marking hatchery fish, so that fishing effort can be directed towards hatchery populations. However, we noted that the effectiveness of this approach is dependant on accurate marking and production of hatchery fish with high survival rates, and it is not yet clear whether selective fishing will prevent overharvest of wild populations. Finally, research demonstrating disease transmission from hatchery fish to wild populations was observed to be equivocal; evidence in this area has been constrained by the lack of effective approaches to studying the fate of pathogens in the wild. We then reviewed several approaches to studying the economic consequences of hatchery activities intended to inform the social decisions surrounding programmes, but recognized that placing monetary value on conservation efforts or on hatcheries that mitigate cultural groups’ loss of historical harvest opportunities may complicate these analyses. We noted that economic issues have rarely been included in decision making on hatchery programmes. We end by identifying existing major knowledge gaps, which, if filled, could contribute towards a fuller understanding of the role that hatchery programmes could play in meeting divergent goals. However, we also recognized that many management recommendations arising from such research may involve trade-offs between different risks, and that decisions about these trade-offs must occur within a social context. Hatcheries have played an important role in sustaining some highly endangered populations, and it is possible that reform of practices will lead to an increase in the number of successful programmes. However, a serious appraisal of the role of hatcheries in meeting broader needs is urgently warranted and should take place at the scientific, but more effectively, at the societal level.

Advances in Marine Biology↗
USGS2020

Quantitative paleoflood hydrology

This chapter reviews the paleohydrologic techniques and approaches used to reconstruct the magnitude and frequency of past floods using geological evidence. Quantitative paleoflood hydrology typically leads to two phases of analysis: (1) documentation and assessment of flood physical evidence (paleostage indicators), and (2) relating identified flood evidence to flood discharge, based on hydraulic calculations. Most paleoflood studies rely on stratigraphic sequences of fine-grained flood deposits found in slack-water and eddy environments in bedrock rivers to enable the estimates of paleodischarges for floods of past few centuries or millennia. Geochronology, commonly based on techniques such as optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon, enable paleoflood age estimates. Such paleoflood discharge and age information can vastly improve flood frequency estimates, particularly for large and rare floods for which quantile estimates are typically poorly constrained by short historical records. The inclusion of such physical evidence of flooding into flood frequency assessments has been aided by new techniques of frequency analysis that can efficiently employ such data. Consequently, paleoflood analysis is supporting probability risk management of critical infrastructure such as nuclear facilities, dams, or bridges. Paleoflood studies also support understanding of the recurrence of geomorphically effective flows and assessment of non-stationarity in the frequency of large floods due to climate, land-use, or other environmental changes.

Llobregat River↗
USGS2022

Framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of offshore wind energy development on marine birds

Offshore wind energy development (OWED) is rapidly expanding globally and has the potential to contribute significantly to renewable energy portfolios. However, development of infrastructure in the marine environment presents risks to wildlife. Marine birds in particular have life history traits that amplify population impacts from displacement and collision with offshore wind infrastructure. Here, we present a broadly applicable framework to assess and mitigate the impacts of OWED on marine birds. We outline existing techniques to quantify impact via monitoring and modeling (e.g., collision risk models, population viability analysis), and present a robust mitigation framework to avoid, minimize, or compensate for OWED impacts. Our framework addresses impacts within the context of multiple stressors across multiple wind energy developments. We also present technological and methodological approaches that can improve impact estimation and mitigation. We highlight compensatory mitigation as a tool that can be incorporated into regulatory frameworks to mitigate impacts that cannot be avoided or minimized via siting decisions or alterations to OWED infrastructure or operation. Our framework is intended as a globally-relevant approach for assessing and mitigating OWED impacts on marine birds that may be adapted to existing regulatory frameworks in regions with existing or planned OWED.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2013

Threatened and endangered subspecies with vulnerable ecological traits Also have high susceptibility to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation

The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2023

Bighorn sheep associations: Understanding tradeoffs of sociality and implications for disease transmission

Sociality directly influences mating success, survival rates, and disease, but ultimately likely evolved for its fitness benefits in a challenging environment. The tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of sociality can operate at multiple scales, resulting in different interpretations of animal behavior. We investigated the influence of intrinsic ( e.g. , relatedness, age) and extrinsic factors ( e.g. , land cover type, season) on direct contact (simultaneous GPS locations ≤ 25 m) rates of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) at multiple scales near the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park. During 2002–2012, male and female bighorn were equipped with GPS collars. Indirect contact (GPS locations ≤ 25 m regardless of time) networks identified two major breaks whereas direct contact networks identified an additional barrier in the population, all of which corresponded with prior disease exposure metrics. More direct contacts occurred between same-sex dyads than female-male dyads and between bighorn groups with overlapping summer home ranges. Direct contacts occurred most often during the winter-spring season when bighorn traveled at low speeds and when an adequate number of bighorn were collared in the area. Direct contact probabilities for all dyad types were inversely related to habitat quality, and differences in contact probability were driven by variables related to survival such as terrain ruggedness, distance to escape terrain, and canopy cover. We provide evidence that probabilities of association are higher when there is greater predation risk and that contact analysis provides valuable information for understanding fitness tradeoffs of sociality and disease transmission potential.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗
USGS1997

Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2009

Water security - Nation state and international security implications

A terrorist attack such as poisoning and sabotage of the national water supply and water-quality infrastructure of the continental United States or any country, could disrupt the delivery of vital human services, threaten both public health and the environment, potentially cause mass casualties and pose grave public concern for homeland security. Most significantly, an attack on water resources would weaken social cohesion and trust in government. A threat to continuity of services is a potential threat to continuity of government since both are necessary for continuity of operations. Water infrastructure is difficult to protect, as it extends over vast areas across the U.S. and for which ownership is overwhelmingly nonfederal (approximately 85 percent). Since the 9111 attacks, federal dam operators and water and wastewater utilities have established counter measures. Similar measures have been taken in countries around the world. These include enhanced physical security, improved coordination between corporate ownership, Department of Homeland Security, and local law enforcement, and research into risk assessment and vulnerability analysis to ensure greater system safety. A key issue is the proportionate additional resources directed at public and private sector specific priorities. Agencies that have the scientific and technological ability to leverage resources, exploit integrated science approaches, focus on interdisciplinary practices, utilize informatics expertise and employ a wide use of evolving technologies should play a key role in water security and related issues.

Disaster Advances↗
USGS2020

Incorporating spatial synchrony in the status assessment of a threatened species with multivariate analysis

Spatial synchrony—correlated abundance fluctuations among distinct populations—is associated with increased extinction risk but is not a component of widely-used extinction risk assessments (e.g., IUCN Red List, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessment). Alongside traditional viability metrics (i.e., the number of populations, their spatial extent, the status of each population), consideration of spatial synchrony in these assessments may provide additional insight into extinction risk as well as the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on population dynamics. We demonstrate a method for estimating abundance trends in populations of the endangered freshwater fish, the amber darter (Percina antesella), while simultaneously assessing support for spatial synchrony among its two populations in the Conasauga and Etowah rivers in Georgia, U.S.A. Our analysis was performed using multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models with annual sampling data from 1996-2018 at 16 sites distributed between the two populations. Our results indicate that amber darter populations have declined substantially, with 9% annual losses in both the Conasauga and Etowah rivers, suggesting rangewide imperilment. Furthermore, model selection indicated little support for models with independent dynamics between rivers, which may compound overall extinction risk. This analysis demonstrates the utility of tools such as MARSS models for assessing spatial synchrony and long-term population trajectories of imperiled species, resulting in improved vulnerability assessments that do not assume independence among separate populations.

Georgia↗
USGS2014

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions to a simulated record of unaltered streamflow. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the persistence of hydrologic measurements from month to month for the prediction of developing hydrologic drought conditions and quantitatively indicates which hydrologic variables may be used to indicate the onset of hydrologic drought conditions. Rank correlation analysis also indicates the potential use of each variable for estimating the monthly minimum unaltered flow at a site of interest for use in the drought-projection analysis. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS is done by calculating Spearman’s rho for paired samples and the 95-percent confidence limits of this rho value. Rank correlation analysis can be done by using precipitation, groundwater levels, measured streamflows, and estimated unaltered streamflows. Serial correlation analysis, which indicates relations between current and future values, can be done for a single site. Cross correlation analysis, which indicates relations among current values at one site and current and future values at a second site, also can be done. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the risk for being in a hydrologic drought condition during the current month and the five following months with and without pumping. Drought-projection analysis also indicates the potential effectiveness of water-conservation methods for mitigating the effect of withdrawals in the coming months on the basis of the amount of depletion caused by different pumping plans and on the risk of unaltered flows being below streamflow targets. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS is done with Monte Carlo methods by using the position analysis method. In this method the initial value of estimated unaltered streamflows is calculated by correlation to a measured hydrologic variable (monthly precipitation, groundwater levels, or streamflows from an index station identified with the rank correlation analysis). Then a pseudorandom number generator is used to create 251 six-month-long flow traces by using a bootstrap method. Serial correlation of the estimated unaltered monthly minimum streamflows determined from the rank correlation analysis is preserved within each flow trace. The sample of unaltered streamflows indicates the risk of being below flow targets in the coming months under simulated natural conditions (without historic withdrawals). The streamflow-depletion algorithms are then used to estimate risks of flow being below targets if selected pumping plans are used. This report also describes the implementation of the HyDroDSS. The HyDroDSS was developed as a Microsoft Access® database application to facilitate storage, handling, and use of hydrologic datasets with a simple graphical user interface. The program is implemented in the database by using the Visual Basic for Applications® (VBA) programming language. Program source code for the analytical techniques is provided in the HyDroDSS and in electronic text files accompanying this report. Program source code for the graphical user interface and for data-handling code, which is specific to Microsoft Access® and the HyDroDSS, is provided in the database. An installation package with a run-time version of the software is available with this report for potential users who do not have a compatible copy of Microsoft Access®. Administrative rights are needed to install this version of the HyDroDSS. A case study, to demonstrate the use of HyDroDSS and interpretation of results for a site of interest, is detailed for the USGS streamgage on the Hunt River (station 01117000) near East Greenwich in central Rhode Island. The Hunt River streamgage was used because it has a long record of streamflow and is in a well-studied basin with a substantial amount of hydrologic and water-use data including groundwater pumping for municipal water supply.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2000

Energetic dose: Beyond fire and flint?

Nutritional and bioenergetic interactions influence exposure to environmental chemicals and may affect the risk realized when wildlife are exposed in the field. Here, food-chain analysis focuses on prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) and the evaluation of chemical risks associated with paraquat following 10-d dietary exposures. Reproductive effects were measured in 60-d trials that followed exposures to paraquat-tainted feed: control (untainted feed); 21 mg paraquat/kg feed; 63 mg paraquat/kg feed; and feed-restricted control (untainted feed restricted to 60% baseline consumption). Reproductive success was evaluated in control and treated breeding pairs, and a preliminary bioenergetics analysis was completed in parallel to derive exposure dose. Although reproductive performance differed among groups, feed-restriction appeared to be the dominant treatment effect observed in these 10-d feeding exposure/limited reproductive trials. Exposure dose ranged from 3.70-3.76 to 9.41-11.51 mg parquat/kg BW/day at 21 and 63 mg paraquat/kg feed stock exposures, respectively. Energetic doses as ug paraquat/kcal yielded preliminary estimates of energetic costs associated with paraquat exposure, and were similar within treatments for both sexes, ranging from 4.2-5.5 and 13.1-15.0 ug paraquat/kcal for voles exposed to 21 mg/kg feed stock and 63 mg/kg feed stock, respectively. Given the increasing likelihood that environmental chemicals will be found in wildlife habitat at 'acceptable levels', the critical role that wildlife nutrition plays in evaluating ecological risks should be fully integrated into the assessment process. Tools applied to the analysis of risk must gain higher resolution than the relatively crude methods we currently bring to the process.

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,↗
USGS2016

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

Mismatch between conservation status and climate change sensitivity leaves some anurans in the United States unprotected

Species vulnerable to climate change face increased extinction risk, but many sensitive species may be overlooked due to limited data and exclusion from vulnerability assessments. Intrinsic sensitivity, or the inherent risk of species to environmental change due to biological factors, can be assessed with widely available data and may address gaps in multispecies vulnerability assessments. Species that exist in few places (geographically rare) and in fewer climates (smaller realized climate niche breadth) have high intrinsic sensitivity to environmental change. Using point occurrences, we systematically evaluated intrinsic sensitivity based on geographic rarity and realized climate niche breadth for 90 species of frogs and toads native to the United States using over 140 000 occurrence records. To compare sensitivity to perceived extinction risk, we compared intrinsic sensitivity to conservation status at state, federal, and international levels. We found no relationship between intrinsic sensitivity and federal or state conservation status, with some intrinsically sensitive species (i.e., those with small areas of occurrence and narrow climate specificity) not listed as at-risk at any level. Intrinsic sensitivity analysis can serve as an early warning system for species that may be currently at-risk and overlooked.

Biological Conservation↗