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Brine contamination to aquatic resources from oil and gas development in the Williston Basin, United States

The Williston Basin, which includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States and the provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada, has been a leading domestic oil and gas producing region for more than one-half a century. Currently, there are renewed efforts to develop oil and gas resources from deep geologic formations, spurred by advances in recovery technologies and economic incentives associated with the price of oil. Domestic oil and gas production has many economic benefits and provides a means for the United States to fulfill a part of domestic energy demands; however, environmental hazards can be associated with this type of energy production in the Williston Basin, particularly to aquatic resources (surface water and shallow groundwater) by extremely saline water, or brine, which is produced with oil and gas. The primary source of concern is the migration of brine from buried reserve pits that were used to store produced water during recovery operations; however, there also are considerable risks of brine release from pipeline failures, poor infrastructure construction, and flow-back water from hydraulic fracturing associated with modern oilfield operations. During 2008, a multidisciplinary (biology, geology, water) team of U.S. Geological Survey researchers was assembled to investigate potential energy production effects in the Williston Basin. Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey participated in field tours and met with representatives from county, State, tribal, and Federal agencies to identify information needs and focus research objectives. Common questions from agency personnel, especially those from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, were “are the brine plumes (plumes of brine-contaminated groundwater) from abandoned oil wells affecting wetlands on Waterfowl Production Areas and National Wildlife Refuges?” and “are newer wells related to Bakken and Three Forks development different than the older, abandoned wells (in terms of potential for affecting aquatic resources)?” Of special concern were the wetland habitats of the ecologically important Prairie Pothole Region, which overlays a part of the Williston Basin and is recognized for the production of a majority of North America’s migratory waterfowl. On the basis of the concerns raised by on-the-ground land managers, as well as findings from previous research, a comprehensive study was developed with the following goals: summarize existing information pertaining to oil and gas production and aquatic resources in the Williston Basin; assess brine plume migration from new and previously studied sites in the Prairie Pothole Region; perform a regional, spatial evaluation of oil and gas production activities and aquatic resources; assess the potential for brine contamination to wetlands and streams; and hold a decision analysis workshop with key stakeholders to discuss issues pertaining to oil and gas production and environmental effects and to identify information gaps and research needs. This report represents an initial, multidisciplinary evaluation of measured and potential environmental effects associated with oil and gas production in the Williston Basin and Prairie Pothole Region. Throughout this report there are reviews of current knowledge, and discussions relating to data gaps and research needs. On the basis of the information presented, future research needs include: regional geophysical and water-quality assessments to establish baselines for current conditions and estimate the extent of previous brine contamination, investigations into the direct effects of brine to biotic communities, and evaluations to identify the most effective techniques to mitigate brine contamination.

Montana, North Dakota

Electrical characterization of non‐Fickian transport in groundwater and hyporheic systems

Recent work indicates that processes controlling solute mass transfer between mobile and less mobile domains in porous media may be quantified by combining electrical geophysical methods and electrically conductive tracers. Whereas direct geochemical measurements of solute preferentially sample the mobile domain, electrical geophysical methods are sensitive to changes in bulk electrical conductivity (bulk EC) and therefore sample EC in both the mobile and immobile domains. Consequently, the conductivity difference between direct geochemical samples and remotely sensed electrical geophysical measurements may provide an indication of mass transfer rates and mobile and immobile porosities in situ. Here we present (1) an overview of a theoretical framework for determining parameters controlling mass transfer with electrical resistivity in situ; (2) a review of a case study estimating mass transfer processes in a pilot‐scale aquifer storage recovery test; and (3) an example application of this method for estimating mass transfer in watershed settings between streams and the hyporheic corridor. We demonstrate that numerical simulations of electrical resistivity studies of the stream/hyporheic boundary can help constrain volumes and rates of mobile‐immobile mass transfer. We conclude with directions for future research applying electrical geophysics to understand field‐scale transport in aquifer and fluvial systems subject to rate‐limited mass transfer.

Water Resources Research

The aeromagnetic method as a tool to identify Cenozoic magmatism in the West Antarctic Rift System beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: a review; Thiel subglacial volcano as possible source of the ash layer in the WAISCOR

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) flows through the volcanically active West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). The aeromagnetic method has been the most useful geophysical tool for identification of subglacial volcanic rocks, since 1959–64 surveys, particularly combined with 1978 radar ice-sounding. The unique 1991–97 Central West Antarctica (CWA) aerogeophysical survey covering 354,000 km 2 over the WAIS, (5-km line-spaced, orthogonal lines of aeromagnetic, radar ice-sounding, and aerogravity measurements), still provides invaluable information on subglacial volcanic rocks, particularly combined with the older aeromagnetic profiles. These data indicate numerous 100–>1000 nT, 5–50-km width, shallow-source, magnetic anomalies over an area greater than 1.2 × 10 6 km 2 , mostly from subglacial volcanic sources. I interpreted the CWA anomalies as defining about 1000 “volcanic centers” requiring high remanent normal magnetizations in the present field direction. About 400 anomaly sources correlate with bed topography. At least 80% of these sources have less than 200 m relief at the WAIS bed. They appear modified by moving ice, requiring a younger age than the WAIS (about 25 Ma). Exposed volcanoes in the WARS are < 34 Ma, but at least four are active. If a few buried volcanic centers are active, subglacial volcanism may well affect the WAIS regime. Aerogeophysical data (Blankenship et al., 1993, Mt. Casertz; Corr and Vaughan, 2008, near Hudson Mts.) indicated active subglacial volcanism. Magnetic data indicate a caldera and a surrounding “low” in the WAISCORE vicinity possibly the result of a shallow Curie isotherm. High heat flow reported from temperature logging in the WAISCORE (Conway et al., 2011; Clow, personal commun.) and a volcanic ash layer (Dunbar, 2012) are consistent with this interpretation. A subaerially erupted subglacial volcano, (Mt Thiel), about 100 km distant, may be the ash source. The present rapid changes resulting from global warming, could be accelerated by subglacial volcanism.

Tectonophysics

Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal development limits the ecosystem services and adaptations important to their survival. Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex due to interacting geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater discharge, waves, and constituents of sediment, nutrients and saltwater. These interactions limit developing a comprehensive framework for science-based sustainable management practices. A suite of models have been developed independently by various academic and government institutions worldwide to understand the dynamics of mangrove ecosystems and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different management scenarios and natural disturbance regimes. The models have progressed from statistical tables representing growth and yield to more sophisticated models describing various system components and processes. Among these models are three individual-based models (IBMs) (FORMAN, KIWI, and MANGRO). A comparison of models’ designs reveal differences in the details of process description, particularly, regarding neighbor competition among trees. Each model has thus its specific range of applications. Whereas FORMAN and KIWI are most suitable to address mangrove forest dynamics of stands, MANGRO focuses on landscape dynamics on larger spatial scale. A comparison of the models and a comparison of the models with empirical knowledge further reveal the general needs for further field and validation studies to advance our ecological understanding and management of mangrove wetlands.

Aquatic Botany

Thermal Methods for Investigating Ground-Water Recharge

Recharge of aquifers within arid and semiarid environments is defined as the downward flux of water across the regional water table. The introduction of recharging water at the land surface can occur at discreet locations, such as in stream channels, or be distributed over the landscape, such as across broad interarroyo areas within an alluvial ground-water basin. The occurrence of recharge at discreet locations is referred to as focused recharge, whereas the occurrence of recharge over broad regions is referred to as diffuse recharge. The primary interest of this appendix is focused recharge, but regardless of the type of recharge, estimation of downward fluxes is essential to its quantification. Like chemical tracers, heat can come from natural sources or be intentionally introduced to infer transport properties and aquifer recharge. The admission and redistribution of heat from natural processes such as insolation, infiltration, and geothermal activity can be used to quantify subsurface flow regimes. Heat is well suited as a ground-water tracer because it provides a naturally present dynamic signal and is relatively harmless over a useful range of induced perturbations. Thermal methods have proven valuable for recharge investigations for several reasons. First, theoretical descriptions of coupled water-and-heat transport are available for the hydrologic processes most often encountered in practice. These include land-surface mechanisms such as radiant heating from the sun, radiant cooling into space, and evapotranspiration, in addition to the advective and conductive mechanisms that usually dominate at depth. Second, temperature is theoretically well defined and readily measured. Third, thermal methods for depths ranging from the land surface to depths of hundreds of meters are based on similar physical principles. Fourth, numerical codes for simulating heat and water transport have become increasingly reliable and widely available. Direct measurement of water flux in the subsurface is difficult, prompting investigators to pursue indirect methods. Geophysical approaches that exploit the coupled relation between heat and water transport provide an attractive class of methods that have become widely used in investigations of recharge. This appendix reviews the application of heat to the problem of recharge estimation. Its objective is to provide a fairly complete account of the theoretical underpinnings together with a comprehensive review of thermal methods in practice. Investigators began using subsurface temperatures to delineate recharge areas and infer directions of ground-water flow around the turn of the 20th century. During the 1960s, analytical and numerical solutions for simplified heat- and fluid-flow problems became available. These early solutions, though one-dimensional and otherwise restricted, provided a strong impetus for applying thermal methods to problems of liquid and vapor movement in systems ranging from soils to geothermal reservoirs. Today?s combination of fast processors, massive data-storage units, and efficient matrix techniques provide numerical solutions to complex, three-dimensional transport problems. These approaches allow researchers to take advantage of the considerable information content routinely achievable in high-accuracy temperature work.

Professional Paper

Crust and lithospheric structure – Global crustal structure

The Earth’s crust has played an important role in all aspects of this planet’s evolution. This chapter presents a review of our current understanding of the physical properties of the crust on a global basis. This understanding comes from extensive seismic measurements using many techniques, as well as nonseismic geophysics, including gravity, magnetic, geoelectric, and heat flow measurements. Seismic measurements include those that employ active (man-made) sources and those that use passive (naturally occurring) sources. Deep seismic reflection profiles provide a seismic image of the crust in twodimensions with a high (50–100m) resolution. Local earthquake tomography can provide three-dimensional (3-D) seismic images at moderate (500–1000m) resolution and higher, depending on the number and spacing of seismographs. Nonseismic methods provide estimates of crustal density, magnetic properties, conductivity and geotherms (temperature vs depth). The crust in deep ocean basins is 6–7km thick and has a relatively uniform seismic velocity structure, but there are numerous oceanic regions with anomalous crustal structure, including mid-ocean ridges, trenches, volcanic islands, and oceanic plateaux. Ocean–continent passive margins are also highly variable in structure, and may be classified as volcanic versus nonvolcanic margins. Continental crust ranges in thickness from 16 to 80km, and has a highly variable seismic velocity and density structure. The proportions of continental crust, by area, are 69% shield and platform (cratons), 15% old and young orogens, 9% extended (stretched) crust, 6 % magmatic arc, and 1% rifts. The weighted mean continental crustal thickness and average crustal velocity are 41km (SD 6.2km) and 6.45kms−1 (SD 0.21kms−1), respectively. A global geographic distribution of seismic data has made it possible to create global crustal models with cell sizes as small as 2°×2°. These models provide a complete description of seismic velocities and density within the crust and uppermost mantle, including, where present, ice, water, and sedimentary layers and the crystalline crust (parameterized in three layers, upper, middle and lower crust), and sub-Moho properties. The crust is the most intensely studied region of the Earth’s interior and consequently is the best understood in terms of its structure, composition, and evolution. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Book chapter

The Mammoth magnetic anomaly, Pinal County, Arizona

A high-resolution Earth Mapping Resources Initiative airborne geophysical survey was flown in the southwest North American porphyry copper province to improve bedrock geologic maps and to identify areas that have unrecognized critical mineral resource potential. During the review of the aeromagnetic data, a distinctly monopolar-shaped, negative magnetic anomaly was observed at a flight elevation of 200 m above the ground with a maximum amplitude of –9500 nT. We have named this the Mammoth magnetic anomaly (MMA) because it is centered 12 km northeast of the town of Mammoth, Arizona, USA. The total field anomaly (TFA) contour of –500 nT enclosing the MMA defines an elongate shape measuring 2.5 km long by 1 km wide that trends northwest–southeast. Given the striking nature of this negative, monopolar-shaped magnetic anomaly, we conducted a ground campaign in May 2025 to determine its authenticity and potential relationship to critical mineral endowment. The MMA was confirmed on the ground with a TFA approaching –46,000 nT. Total magnetic intensity (TMI) observations routinely fell below the 18,000 nT operating floor of an industry-standard cesium-vapor total field magnetometer, and extremely low TMI measurements were corroborated along coincident traverse lines using two high dynamic range, but lower sensitivity, smartphone vector magnetometers. The lowest TMI values recorded by both smartphone magnetometers were 1000 nT and confirmed with multiple adjacent and crossing lines. Field observations suggest that this magnetic feature is caused by strong remanent magnetization within fine-grained magnetite hosted within locally altered Pinal Schist.

Arizona

USGS assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in Paleogene strata of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastal plain and state waters

This report presents a review of the U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) 2007 assessment of the undiscovered oil and gas resources in Paleogene strata underlying the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain and state waters. Geochemical, geologic, geophysical, thermal maturation, burial history, and paleontologic studies have been combined with regional cross sections and data from previous USGS petroleum assessments have helped to define the major petroleum systems and assessment units. Accumulations of both conventional oil and gas and continuous coal-bed gas within these petroleum systems have been digitally mapped and evaluated, and undiscovered resources have been assessed following USGS methodology. The primary source intervals for oil and gas in Paleogene (and Cenozoic) reservoirs are coal and shale rich in organic matter within the Wilcox Group (Paleocene-Eocene) and Sparta Formation of the Claiborne Group (Eocene); in addition, Cretaceous and Jurassic source rocks probably have contributed substantial petroleum to Paleogene (and Cenozoic) reservoirs. For the purposes of the assessment, Paleogene strata have divided into the following four stratigraphic study intervals: (1) Wilcox Group (including the Midway Group and the basal Carrizo Sand of the Claiborne Group; Paleocene-Eocene); (2) Claiborne Group (Eocene); (3) Jackson and Vicksburg Groups (Eocene-Oligocene); and (4) the Frio-Anahuac Formations (Oligocene). Recent discoveries of coal-bed gas in Paleocene strata confirm a new petroleum system that was not recognized in previous USGS assessments. In total, 26 conventional Paleogene assessment units are defined. In addition, four Cretaceous-Paleogene continuous (coal-bed gas) assessment units are included in this report. Initial results of the assessment will be released as USGS Fact Sheets (not available at the time of this writing). Comprehensive reports for each assessment unit are planned to be released via the internet and distributed on CD-ROMs within the next year.

U.S. Gulf Coast

Geologic characteristics of sediment- and volcanic-hosted disseminated gold deposits - Search for an occurrence model

The current expansion of resource information, particularly on "disseminated" gold, and the improved technologies now available for resource investigations should place us in an enhanced position for developing a better predictive methodology for meeting one of the important responsibilities of the U.S. Geological Survey-to examine and assess the mineral resources of the geologic terranes composing the public (and privately owned) lands of the United States. The first step is systematic organization of these data. Geologic-occurrence models are an effective systematic method by which to organize large amounts of resource information into a logical sequence facilitating its use more effectively in meeting several industry and Survey objectives, which include the exploration for resources and the assessment of resource potential for land-use decisions. Such models also provide a scientific basis for metallogenesis research, which considers the observable features or attributes of ore occurrence and their "fit" into the Earth's resource puzzle. The use of models in making resource assessments/appraisals was addressed by Shawe (1981), who reported the results of a workshop on methods for resource appraisal of Wilderness and Conterminous United States Mineral Appraisal Program (CUSMAP; 1:250,000-scale quadrangles) areas. The Survey's main objective in the 1982 workshop was to evaluate the status of knowledge about disseminated or very fine grained gold deposits and, if possible, to develop an occurrence model(s). This report on the workshop proceedings has three main objectives: (1) Education through the publication of a summary review and presentation of new thinking and observations about the scientific bases for those geologic processes and environments that foster disseminated gold-ore formation; (2) systematic organization of available geologic, geochemical, and geophysical information for a range of typical disseminated gold deposits (including recognition of gaps in those data); and (3) assessment of current understanding (as presented in objective 2) toward formulating an empirical ore-occurrence model for this type of deposit. As such, this volume represents a preliminary first step at classification and provides a source of pertinent background information. Readers of this volume will soon discover, however, that full agreement has not yet been achieved in the interpretation of some of the geologic evidence. The resulting variations in tentative occurrence models for these controversial deposits ultimately will be resolved by filling the gaps in information that have already been identified. Thus, this volume does not report a U.S. Geological Survey consensus; the conclusions expressed in each chapter represent the particular interpretations of the various workshop participants.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah

Hydrologic influences on water-level changes in the Eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1949-2014

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, has maintained a water-level monitoring program at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) since 1949 to systematically measure water levels to provide long-term information on groundwater recharge, discharge, movement, and storage in the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer. During 2014, water levels in the ESRP aquifer reached all-time lows for the period of record, prompting this study to assess the effect that future water-level declines may have on pumps and wells. Water-level data were compared with pump-setting depth to determine the hydraulic head above the current pump setting. Additionally, geophysical logs were examined to address changes in well productivity with water-level declines. Furthermore, hydrologic factors that affect water levels in different areas of the INL were evaluated to help understand why water-level changes occur. Review of pump intake placement and 2014 water-level data indicates that 40 wells completed within the ESRP aquifer at the INL have 20 feet (ft) or less of head above the pump. Nine of the these wells are located in the northeastern and northwestern areas of the INL where recharge is predominantly affected by irrigation, wet and dry cycles of precipitation, and flow in the Big Lost River. Water levels in northeastern and northwestern wells generally show water-level fluctuations of as much as 4.5 ft seasonally and show declines as much as 25 ft during the past 14 years. In the southeastern area of the INL, seven wells were identified as having less than 20 ft of water remaining above the pump. Most of the wells in the southeast show less decline over the period of record compared with wells in the northeast; the smaller declines are probably attributable to less groundwater withdrawal from pumping of wells for irrigation. In addition, most of the southeastern wells show only about a 1&ndash;2 ft fluctuation seasonally because they are less influenced by groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. In the southwestern area of the INL, 24 wells were identified as having less than 20 ft of water remaining above the pump. Wells in the southwest also only show small 1&ndash;2 ft fluctuations seasonally because of a lack of irrigation influence. Wells show larger fluctuation in water levels closer to the Big Lost River and fluctuate in response to wet and dry cycles of recharge to the Big Lost River. Geophysical logs indicate that most of the wells evaluated will maintain their current production until the water level declines to the depth of the pump. A few of the wells may become less productive once the water level gets to within about 5 ft from the top of the pump. Wells most susceptible to future drought cycles are those in the northeastern and northwestern areas of the INL.

Idaho

The occurrence and hazards of great subduction zone earthquakes

Subduction zone earthquakes result in some of the most devastating natural hazards on Earth. Knowledge of where great (moment magnitude M ≥ 8) subduction zone earthquakes can occur and how they rupture is critical to constraining future seismic and tsunami hazards. Since the occurrence of well-instrumented great earthquakes, such as the 2004 M 9.1 Sumatra–Andaman and 2011 M 9.1 Tohoku earthquakes, the hypotheses that plate age and convergence rate influence the ability of subduction zones to host large earthquakes have been dispelled. In this Review, we highlight how certain subduction zone properties might influence the location and characteristics of great earthquake rupture and impact seismic and tsunami hazard. The rupture characteristics of great earthquakes that most heavily impact earthquake hazards include the rupture extent (seaward and landward), location of strong motion-generating areas and earthquake recurrence. By contrast, large slip or displacement at the seafloor is one of the major controls of tsunami hazard. Future improvements in addressing hazards posed by subduction zones depend heavily on sustained geophysical monitoring in subduction zone systems (both onshore and offshore), expanded development of palaeoseismic data sets and improved integration of observations and models across disciplines and timescales.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Preface

This book grew out of a topical session on “Central Virginia Earthquakes of 2011: Geology, Geophysics, and Significance for Seismic Hazards in Eastern North America” at the 2012 The Geological Society of America (GSA) Annual Meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina (USA). It also benefitted from related sessions at other meetings. The goal of this volume, The 2011 Mineral, Virginia, Earthquake, and Its Significance for Seismic Hazards in Eastern North America , is to bring together as much information as possible on lessons learned from this rare event. Chapters encompass a wide range of geoscience, engineering, and related studies of this earthquake and its effects from the epicentral area in central Virginia to Washington, D.C., and beyond. The intended audience is a broad spectrum of geoscientists, engineers, and decision makers interested in understanding earthquakes and seismic hazards in eastern North America and other intraplate settings. Chapters by Berti et al. (21), Chapman (2), Costain (8), Davenport et al. (15), Green et al. (9), Heller and Carter (10), Horton et al. (14), Hughes et al. (19), Powars et al. (23), Pratt et al. (16), Roeloffs et al. (7), Shah et al. (17), Stephenson et al. (3), Walsh et al. (18), and Wells et al. (12) are expansions of presentations at the 2012 GSA meeting. The volume also contains chapters from recent studies that were not presented at the GSA meeting, including those by Bobyarchick (22), Burton et al. (20), Dreiling and Mooney (5), Li et al. (11), McNamara et al. (4), Pollitz and Mooney (6), and Shahidi et al. (13). Following an overview and synthesis by the volume editors (1), chapters are arranged under the topical headings “Seismology and Regional Effects,” “Earthquake Damage, Geotechnical, and Engineering Investigations,” “Aftershocks, Geophysical Imaging, and Modeling,” “Geologic Investigations—Epicentral Area,” and “Geologic Investigations— Central Virginia Seismic Zone and Nearby Faults.” We thank the authors for their contributions and the many scientists and engineers who contributed time and expertise in reviewing manuscripts to substantially improve the quality of the volume. These reviewers include Gail Atkinson, Christopher Bailey, Richard Berquist, Kimberly Blisniuk, Paul Bodin, Aaron Bradshaw, Clive Collins, Ariel Conn, Randy Cox, Haitham Dawood, James Dewey, John Ebel, David Fenster, Alexander Gates, Kathleen Haller, Gregory Hancock, Robert Hatcher, William Henika, Paul Hsieh, Steven Jaumé, Jeffrey Kimball, Charles Langston, Jongwon Lee, Andrea Llenos, John McBride, Scott Olson, Michael Oskin, Brent Owens, Gilles Peltzer, Mark Quigley, Dhananjay Ravat, David Saftner, Arthur Snoke, Jamison Steidl, Kevin Stewart, Alice Stieve, Danielle Sumy, Ertugrul Taciroglu, Roy Van Arsdale, Mason Walters, Chiyuen Wang, Yang Wang, Richard Whittecar, Lorraine Wolf, Clint Wood, Liam Wotherspoon, and some anonymous reviewers.

Virginia

Book review: Extreme ocean waves

&lsquo;&lsquo;Extreme Ocean Waves&rsquo;&rsquo; is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that &lsquo;&lsquo;extreme&rsquo;&rsquo; has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. Review info: Extreme Ocean Waves . By E. Pelinovsky and C. Kharif (eds), 2008. ISBN: 978-1402083136, xiii, 196 pp.

Pure and Applied Geophysics

Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: Scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R 2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

Advances in Geophysics

Strain accumulation in southern California, 1973-1980

Frequent surveys of seven trilateration networks in southern California over the interval 1973–1980 suggest that a regional increment in strain may have occurred in 1978–1979. Prior to 1978 and after late 1979 the strain accumulation has been predominantly a uniaxial north-south compression. This secular trend was interrupted sometime in 1978–1979 by an increment in both north-south and east-west extension in five of the seven networks. The onset of this change appears to have occurred first in the networks farthest south. The changes occurred without any unusual seismicity within the networks, but the overall seismicity in southern California was unusually low prior to and has been unusually high since the occurrence. The average principal strain rates for the seven networks in the 1973–1980 interval are 0.17 μstrain/yr north-south contraction and 0.08 μstrain/yr east-west extension. Although the observed increment in strain could be related to unidentified systematic error in the measuring system, a careful review of the measurements and comparisons with three other measuring systems reveal no appreciable cumulative systematic error.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth