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Spatio-temporal modeling for assessing geoenergy resources: A workflow applied to gas in place variation in coal beds

The ability to estimate spatio-temporal changes in hydrocarbon reservoir properties and energy resources within pore volumes is essential for optimizing production, reservoir management, geologic energy storage, and safety in underground mining operations. In coal seams, predicting remaining methane gas-in-place (GIP) is critical for quantifying producible gas and improving mine safety and productivity through effective ventilation planning. Although such changes are commonly evaluated using physics-based numerical simulation models, these approaches often require extensive data, calibration effort, and time. This study presents a spatio-temporal geostatistical modeling approach that bridges the gap between purely spatial models and full numerical simulations. The method is applied to a case study of coal seam degasification in the Mary Lee coal group, Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, USA, to estimate GIP evolution over time within a selected mining district. The analysis uses published data from prior natural gas production history-matching of degasification using vertical wells. Empirical spatial and temporal statistics were calculated for reservoir pressure and water saturation, and spatio-temporal variogram models were fitted to experimental variograms. These models provided the structural basis for spatio-temporal kriging, integrated with spatial estimates of time-invariant parameters (porosity, density, and thickness) to estimate GIP. This approach enabled estimation of GIP changes over time, including periods without data. Boxplots of GIP estimates indicated systematic depletion and decreasing spatial variability, reflecting the impacts of degasification. Comparison with cumulative gas production from empirical well records showed approximately 85% agreement based on a relative similarity metric. Spatio-temporal GIP estimates were also used to estimate methane emissions to longwall ventilation systems and compared with reported emissions from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, showing similar distributions (≈80%) given data limitations. Overall, this integrated modeling approach provides time-dependent GIP estimates with broader implications for resource assessment applications.

Alabama

U.S. Geological Survey program of offshore resource and geoenvironmental studies, Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico region, from September 1, 1976, to December 31, 1978

Mineral and energy resources of the continental margins of the United States arc important to the Nation's commodity independence and to its balance of payments. These resources are being studied along the continental margins of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico in keeping with the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey to survey the geologic structures, mineral resources, and products of the national domain.'(Organic Act of 1879). An essential corollary to these resource studies is the study of potential geologic hazards that may be associated with offshore resource exploration and exploitation. In cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the Geological Survey, through its Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program, carries out extensive research to evaluate hazards from sediment mobility, shallow gas, and slumping and to acquire information on the distribution and concentration of trace metals and biogenic and petroleum-derived hydrocarbons in sea-floor sediments. All these studies arc providing needed background information, including information on pollutant dispersal, on the nearshore, estuarine, and lacustrine areas that may be near pipeline and nuclear powerplant sites. Users of these data include the Congress, many Federal agencies, the coastal States, private industry, academia, and the concerned public. The results of the regional structural, stratigraphic, and resource studies carried out under the Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program have been used by the Geological Survey and the Bureau of Land Management to select areas for future leasing and to aid in the evaluation of tracts nominated for leasing. Resource studies have concentrated mostly on the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf frontier areas. Geologic detailing of five major basins along the U.S. Atlantic margin, where sediments are as much as 14 km thick, have been revealed by 25,000 km of 24-and 48-channel common-depth-point seismic data, 187,000 km of acromagnetic data, and 39,000 km of gravity data, plus 10,000 samples and logs obtained from U.S. Geological Survey and industry drilling (for example, coreholes of the Atlantic Slope Program, Joint Oceanographic Institutions Deep Earth Sampling, Continental Offshore Stratigraphic Tests, and the Atlantic Margin Coring Program). A sedimentary section of Jurassic and Cretaceous age grades from terrigenous clastic rocks nearshore to carbonate rocks offshore; this section is part of an extensive buried bank-platform complex that could contain large reserves of natural gas and oil. The volume of sediment deposited offshore far exceeds the volume deposited onshore where extensive accumulations of oil, gas, and minerals have been found. Commercial exploratory drilling offshore thus far has been limited to the Baltimore Canyon Trough area off New Jersey, where at least two holes have found gas; leasing has taken place in the Southeast Georgia Embayment, where drilling was scheduled to begin in 1979, and is imminent in the Georges Bank area off New England. In addition, hydrogeologic and hydrochemical data obtained from the drilling studies have delineated freshwater-bearing submarine extensions of land aquifers that are important coastal ground-water resources. Hazards in the Georges Bank area include sand mobility associated with strong currents and storm-driven waves; high concentrations of suspended sediment in the water column that, when mixed with spilled oil, may sink to the bottom; and slumping along the upper slope. In the Baltimore Canyon, high sediment mobility accompanies major winter storms, and slumped material may cover as much as 20 percent of the upper slope. Potentially unstable slope areas are being studied in great detail to provide data on timing, triggering mechanisms, and rates of sediment movement. In the Southeast Georgia Embayment and Blake Plateau Basin, strong Gulf Stream flow poses a major problem to all offshore operations. In the Gulf o

Circular

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Wyoming, fiscal year 1980

This report contains lists and location maps of streamflow and reservoir stations, ground-water stations, water-quality stations, sediment stations, and peak-flow partial-record stations that are currently being operated in Wyoming. Water-resources appraisal projects are also described, including many that are related to development of energy resources. The general locations of the projects are shown on maps. The U.S. Geological Survey is striving to coordinate its water-resources investigations with those of other agencies. This report is one phase of that coordination effort and serves as an annual progress report to cooperators and the public. (USGS)

Open-File Report

A simple method for partitioning total solar radiation into diffuse/direct components in the United States

Solar radiation is a major sustainable and clean energy resource, and use of solar radiation is expected to increase. The utilization efficiency of solar energy varies with the relative proportions of the direct and diffuse components that compose total solar radiation and with the slope and aspect of the irradiated surface. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple method for estimating diffuse and direct solar radiation at sites with observation of only total solar radiation. An existing model for estimating diffuse radiation, i.e., a linear relationship between the diffuse fraction (the ratio of diffuse radiation to total solar radiation) and the clearness index (the ratio of total solar radiation to extraterrestrial radiation), is applied to 7 sites across the continental United States with observations of diffuse and total radiation. The linear model shows good monthly performance. The model parameters (slope and interception) show a strong seasonal pattern that exhibits small variation across the 7 sites; therefore, the average values of the two monthly parameters may be used for estimating diffuse radiation for other locations with observations of total radiation.

International Journal of Green Energy

Banquet speech "Man's conquest of energy, its ecological and human consequences"

The world's energy resources suitable for power production are of two classes: (1) various channels of the continuous energy flux from extraterrestrial sources, and from the earth's interior, and (2) chemical, thermal, and nuclear energy stored in the outer part of the lithosphere and in the oceans. The continuous energy influxes are from: solar radiation, 178,000 × 1012 watts; geothermal energy, 32 × 1012 watts; and tidal energy, 3 × 1012 watts. Of the solar energy influx, the only fraction suitable at present for large-scale power production is the approximately 40,000 × 1012 watts expended in evaporation of water and in atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Of this, the world's potential water power is about 2.9 × 1012 watts. A very small fraction of the solar influx, 40 × 1012 watts, is stored chemically by photosynthesis. A minute fraction of this, stored during the geologic past, is the source of the energy of the fossil fuels, coal and petroleum. Tidal power is capable of large-scale development in a small number of coastal localities with a total potential power of about 64,000 megawatts. Of the sources of stored energy, geothermal energy is the least important. Installed capacity by 1970 is about 1,125 electrical megawatts, and the ultimate potential is estimated at about 60,000 megawatts, with a lifetime of probably less than a century. The largest sources of stored energy, other than nuclear, are the fossil fuels. The initial minable world reserves of coal and lignite are estimated to have been about 7.

IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science

USGS National Assessment of Oil and Gas Online (NOGA Online)

The Central Energy Resources Team (CERT) of the U.S. Geological Survey is providing results of the USGS National Assessment of Oil and Gas online (NOGA Online). In addition to providing resource estimates and geologic reports, NOGA Online includes an internet map application that allows interactive viewing and analysis of assessment data and results. CERT is in the process of reassessing domestic oil and natural gas resources in a series of priority basins in the United States using a Total Petroleum System (TPS) approach where the assessment unit is the basic appraisal unit (rather than the oil and gas play used in the 1995 study). Assessments of undiscovered oil and gas resources in five such priority provinces were recently completed to meet the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 2000 (EPCA 2000). New assessment results are made available at this site on an ongoing basis.

Fact Sheet

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Wyoming, fiscal year 1983

Lists and location maps of streamflow and reservoir stations, crest stage partial record stations, water quality stations, sediment stations, and groundwater observation wells where data are currently being collected in Wyoming are presented. Water resources appraisal projects in Wyoming are described, including many that are related to development of energy resources. The general locations of the projects are shown on maps. The U.S. Geological Survey is striving to coordinate its water resources investigations with those of other agencies. This report is one phase of that coordination effort, and serves as an annual progress report to cooperators and the public. (Author 's abstract)

Open-File Report

Water-resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in Wyoming; fiscal year 1985

This report contains lists and location maps of streamflow and reservoir stations, water quality stations, sediment stations, and groundwater observation wells where data are currently being collected. Water resources appraisal projects in Wyoming are described, including many that are related to development of energy resources. The general locations of most projects are shown on maps. The U.S. Geological Survey is striving to coordinate its water resources activities with those of other agencies. This report is one phase of that coordination effort, and serves as an annual progress report to cooperators and the public. (USGS)

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Wyoming, fiscal years 1981 and 1982

This report contains lists and location maps of streamflow and reservoir stations, peak-flow partial-record stations, water quality stations, sediment stations, and ground-water stations that are currently being operated. Water-resources appraisal projects in Wyoming are also described, including many that are related to development of energy resources. The general locations of the projects are shown on maps. The U.S. Geological Survey is striving to coordinate its water-resources investigations with those of other agencies. This report is one phase of that coordination effort, and serves as an annual progress report to cooperators and the public. (USGS)

Open-File Report

The Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program: Background information to accompany folio of geologic and resource maps of the Ugashik, Bristol Bay, and western part of Karluk quadrangles, Alaska

The Ugashik, Bristol Bay, and western part of Karluk quadrangles (1:250,000) are a part of the Alaska Peninsula in southwestern Alaska. This circular, in conjunction with a companion folio of MF-series maps, two I-series geologic maps, and three bulletins, represents the results of integrated field and laboratory studies on the geology, geophysics, geochemistry, paleontology, geochronology, and mineral resources of the quadrangles. These studies were undertaken to provide a modern assessment of the mineral and energy resources of the quadrangles. Each map contains descriptive text, explanatory material, tables, diagrams, and pertinent references. This circular provides background information for the mineral resource assessment map (MF-1539-1) and integrates the component M F- and I-series maps. A comprehensive bibliography cites both specific and general references relevant to the geology and resources of the quadrangles.

Alaska

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Wyoming, fiscal year 1978

This report contains lists of streamflow and reservoir stations, peak-flow partial-record stations, chemical-quality stations, sediment stations, and observation wells where water levels are measured in Wyoming. The locations of the basic-data sites are shown on maps. Thirty-two water-resources appraisal projects in Wyoming are also described, including many that are related to the development of energy resources. The general locations of the projects are shown on maps. The report serves as an annual progress report to cooperators and the public.

Wyoming

Changing Perceptions of World Oil and Gas Resources as Shown by Recent USGS Petroleum Assessments

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically conducts geology-based assessments of the oil and gas resources of the world in recognition of the fact that the United States economic security is closely linked to energy resources outside the United States. Four such petroleum assessments have been published in recent years (Masters and others, 1984, 1987, 1991, and 1994). A summary of these assessments (table 1) indicates the magnitude of world conventional oil and gas resources, as perceived in the 1980s and 1990s by the USGS. These four successive world petroleum assessments evidence changes in perception through time. The assessments were prepared using a consistent methodology by the same core group of geologists. Because of this continuity, differences among the four assessments can be largely attributed to an evolving understanding of world recoverable oil and gas resources rather than to procedural or philosophical changes. In this fact sheet, some of the trends in the estimates of table 1 are examined with a view toward better understanding world oil and gas resources in the context of the next few decades.

Fact Sheet

Hydrates contain vast store of world gas resources

The discovery of large gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope of Alaska and off the U.S. southeast coast has heightened interest in gas hydrates as a possible energy resource of the future. However, significant geological uncertainties and possibly insurmountable technical issues need to be resolved before gas hydrates can be counted as a viable option for future, affordable supplies of natural gas.

Oil & Gas Journal

USGS research on mineral resources, 1985 program and abstracts

The extended abstracts in this volume are summaries of the papers presented orally and as posters in the first V.E. McKelvey Forum on Mineral and Energy Resources, entitled "USGS Research on Mineral Resources-1985." The Forum has been established to improve communication between the USGS and the earth science community by presenting the results of current USGS research on nonrenewable resources in a timely fashion and by providing an opportunity for individuals from other organizations to meet informally with USGS scientists and managers. It is our hope that the McKelvey Forum will help to make USGS programs more responsive to the needs of the earth science community, particularly the mining and petroleum industries, and will foster closer cooperation between organizations and individuals.

Circular

Land status and federal mineral ownership in the Powder River basin, Wyoming and Montana; a digital data set for geographic information systems

As the Nation's energy resources continue to be examined for development, it is critical that a digital database exist that contains location data for all Federal land and mineral resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), is collecting these ownership files and compiling them in Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) ARC/INFO coverages, to form a standardized data library. A coverage is a digital version of a map in the form of vector data storage. These coverages are combined with models of coal deposits from the USGS National Coal Resource Assessment project, a five-year effort to identify and characterize the coal beds and coal zones that will provide fuel for the Nation’s energy needs during the first quarter of the twenty-first century. Geographic and geologic data layers are integrated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to answer complex geo-spatial questions concerning coal resource occurrence.

Montana, Wyoming

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1997

The eight papers that follow continue the series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on investigations in the geologic sciences in Alaska. The series presents new and sometimes preliminary findings that are of interest to earth scientists in academia, government, and industry; to land and resource managers; and to the general public. Reports presented in Geologic Studies in Alaska cover a broad spectrum of topics from all parts of the State (fig. 1), which serves to emphasize the diversity of USGS efforts to meet the Nation's needs for earth-science information in Alaska. The papers in this volume are organized under the topics Resources, Geologic Framework, and Environment and Climate. Such an organization is intended to reflect the scope and objectives of USGS programs currently active in Alaska. Resource papers include one that presents detailed observations from a Mississippian Zn-Pb-Cu-Ag occurrence in the Brooks Range (Werdon). Mineralogic, chemical, and isotopic data provide the basis for a proposed relationship between this vein-breccia deposit and the shale-hosted massive sulfide deposit type, which includes the active Red Dog mine in the western Brooks Range. Also included under the topic of Resources is a paper that presents geochemical and isotopic data from the Greens Creek and Woewodski Island volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits in southeastern Alaska (Newberry and Brew). The depositional environment and sedimentological setting of Tertiary coal beds in the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys is the focus of a third paper under the topic of Resources (Flores and others). Geologic Framework studies provide background information that is the scientific basis for present and future studies of the environment, mineral and energy resources, paleoclimate, and hazards in Alaska. One paper presents the results of sedimentologic and paleontologic comparisons of lower Paleozoic, deep-water-facies rock units in central Alaska (Dumoulin and others). The authors show which of these units are likely to correlate with one another, suggest likely source regions, and provide a structural restoration of units that have been fragmented by large fault motions. A second framework paper provides a map, rock descriptions, and chemical compositions of volcanic rocks in a newly recognized, geologically young volcanic center in the Aleutian volcanic arc (Hildreth and others). A third paper presents an interesting summary of gravity changes that occurred in south-central Alaska during the great earthquake of 1964 and for the following 25 years (Barnes). Gravity changes correlate with land-elevation changes in some cases, but not in others, which means that different processes are responsible for the gravity changes.

Alaska

National Geochemical Database: Reformatted data from the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Hydrogeochemical and Stream Sediment Reconnaissance (HSSR) program

The National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Hydrogeochemical and Stream Sediment Reconnaissance (HSSR) program produced a large amount of geochemical data. To fully understand how these data were generated, it is recommended that you read the History of NURE HSSR Program for a summary of the entire program. By the time the NURE program had ended, the HSSR data consisted of 894 separate data files stored with 47 different formats. Many files contained duplication of data found in other files. The University of Oklahoma's Information Systems Programs of the Energy Resources Institute (ISP) was contracted by the Department of Energy to enhance the accessibility and usefulness of the NURE HSSR data. ISP created a single standard-format master file to replace the 894 original files. ISP converted 817 of the 894 original files before its funding apparently ran out. The ISP-reformatted NURE data files have been released by the USGS on CD-ROM (Lower 48 States, Hoffman and Buttleman, 1994; Alaska, Hoffman and Buttleman, 1996). A description of each NURE database field, derived from a draft NURE HSSR data format manual (unpubl. commun., Stan Moll, ISP, Oct 7, 1988), was included in a readme file on each CD-ROM. That original manual was incomplete and assumed that the reformatting process had gone to completion. A lot of vital information was not included. Efforts to correct that manual and the NURE data revealed a large number of problems and missing data. As a result of the frustrating process of cleaning and re-cleaning data from the ISP-reformatted NURE files, a new NURE HSSR data format was developed. This work represents a totally new attempt to reformat the original NURE files into 2 consistent database structures; one for water samples and a second for sediment samples, on a quadrangle by quadrangle basis, from the original NURE files. Although this USGS-reformatted NURE HSSR data format is different than that created by the ISP, many of their ideas were incorporated and expanded in this effort. All of the data from each quadrangle are being examined thoroughly in an attempt to eliminate problems, to combine partial or duplicate records, to convert all coding to a common scheme, and to identify problems even if they can not be solved at this time.

Open-File Report