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USGS2022

Getting ahead of flash drought: From early warning to early action

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational monitoring and forecast centers, practitioners, and policy-makers to inform how they view, monitor, predict, plan for, and respond to flash drought. We discuss five related topics that together constitute the pillars of a robust flash drought early warning system, including the development of 1) a physically based identification framework, 2) comprehensive drought monitoring capabilities, and 3) improved prediction over various time scales that together 4) aid impact assessments and 5) guide decision-making and policy. We provide specific recommendations to illustrate how this fivefold approach could be used to enhance decision-making capabilities of practitioners, develop new areas of research, and provide guidance to policy-makers attempting to account for flash drought in drought preparedness and response plans.

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society (BAMS)↗

USGS1985

An interview with Karl Steinbrugge

For thirty years the name of Karl V. Steinbrugge has been synonymous with the Insurance Services Office in San Francisco. There he was in charge of their earthquake engineering and research activities for the United States, and his work included detailed engineering investigations of the probable earthquake damage to structures as well as studies of actual earthquake effects. trained as a civil and structural engineer, Steinbrugge was on faculty of the University of California at Berkeley for 28 years, retiring as a Professor of Structural Design. He has served on numerous national and international committees on earthquake hazards, and he is now a consulting structural engineer, specializing in earthquake hazard evaluation. At the present moment he is chairman of an independent panel of the Federal Emergency Management Agency that is reviewing the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. Henry Spall recently asked Steinbrugge some questions about his long career.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2009

Gap Analysis -A geographic approach to planning for biological diversity

The Mission of the Gap Analysis Project (GAP) is to promote conservation by providing broad geographic information on biological diversity to resource managers, planners, and policy makers who can use the information to make informed decisions. As part of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII) —a collaborative program to provide increased access to data and information on the nation’s biological resources--GAP data and analytical tools have been used in hundreds of applications: from basic research to comprehensive state wildlife plans; from educational projects in schools to ecoregional assessments of biodiversity. The challenge: keeping common species common means protecting them BEFORE they become threatened. To do this on a state or regional basis requires key information such as land cover descriptions, predicted distribution maps for native animals, and an assessment of the level of protection currently given to those plants and animals. GAP works cooperatively with Federal, state, and local natural resource professionals and academics to provide this kind of information. GAP activities focus on the creation of state and regional databases and maps that depict patterns of land management, land cover, and biodiversity. These data can be used to identify “gaps” in conservation--instances where an animal or plant community is not adequately represented on the existing network of conservation lands. GAP is administered through the U.S. Geological Survey. Through building partnerships among disparate groups, GAP hopes to foster the kind of collaboration that is needed to address conservation issues on a broad scale.

GAP Bulletin↗

USGS2002

United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Niño, water year 2003

During the course of spring and summer 2002, tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed and the wind and pressure fields have shifted, so that by August, there was considerable confidence that water year (October–September) 2003 will be characterized by a weak to mild El Niño climate (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200208/QuickLook.html). At the same time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997) has shifted towards a more neutral state than in the past several years and will not be considered in detail here. Previous studies of the connections between El Niños and streamflow in the United States by the authors (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., 2001) indicate that El Niño conditions influence historical streamflow distributions to varying extents. These conclusions, along with those of other researchers, suggest that foreknowledge of El Niño conditions can inform seasonal outlooks for streamflows throughout the Americas and elsewhere. For example, Dettinger et al. (2001), as distilled here into Fig. 1, showed that historical annual streamflow totals have correlated negatively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, which is negatively associated with El Niños) in the U.S. Southwest as well as in the subtropics of South America, and correlate positively in the U.S. Northwest, in much of tropical South America, and, perhaps, in southernmost South America. These interhemispheric bands of El Niño influence are a matter of considerable concern for water- and land-managers throughout the Americas, and expand upon results from previous studies in the western United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992), including a recent analysis by Pizarro and Lall (2002), where water availability and hydrologic extremes are particularly pressing issues.

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗

USGS1957

Drainage areas of Iowa streams

The drainage area of a stream at a specified location ordinarily may be defined as that area, measured in a horizontal plane, which is enclosed by a topographic divide such that direct surface runoff from precipitation would drain by gravity into the river basin above the specified point. One of the most important factors in the hydrologic computation for the design of structures on or over watercourses is the drainage area upstream from the point under consideration. Other hydrologic studies such as low-flow, flood-frequency analyses, rainfall-runoff correlations, stream density, and area-distance make use of this factor as a basic premise for computation. In order that the drainage-area information of the interior streams of Iowa be of uniform accuracy and available to all users of these data, this report has been compiled, and the drainage areas of all streams in excess of 5 square mies are listed. For the larger streams, drainage areas have been determined at numerous intermediate points. As a result of this report much basic background material has been compiled that will he useful in future hydrologic studies of drainage basin characteristics. This publication is limited to the presentation of the drainage-area data for the interior streams of the State. The methods of application of these data to the study of streamflow characteristics, and the design of related structures are properly the function of the design engineer and are not discussed herein.

Iowa↗

USGS2016

A long-term evaluation of biopsy darts and DNA to estimate cougar density

Accurately estimating cougar ( Puma concolor ) density is usually based on long-term research consisting of intensive capture and Global Positioning System collaring efforts and may cost hundreds of thousands of dollars annually. Because wildlife agency budgets rarely accommodate this approach, most infer cougar density from published literature, rely on short-term studies, or use hunter harvest data as a surrogate in their jurisdictions; all of which may limit accuracy and increase risk of management actions. In an effort to develop a more cost-effective long-term strategy, we evaluated a research approach using citizen scientists with trained hounds to tree cougars and collect tissue samples with biopsy darts. We then used the DNA to individually identify cougars and employed spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate cougar densities. Overall, 240 tissue samples were collected in northeastern Washington, USA, producing 166 genotypes (including recaptures and excluding dependent kittens) of 133 different cougars (8-25/yr) from 2003 to 2011. Mark–recapture analyses revealed a mean density of 2.2 cougars/100 km 2 (95% CI=1.1-4.3) and stable to decreasing population trends (β=-0.048, 95% CI=-0.106–0.011) over the 9 years of study, with an average annual harvest rate of 14% (range=7-21%). The average annual cost per year for field sampling and genotyping was US$11,265 ($422.24/sample or $610.73/successfully genotyped sample). Our results demonstrated that long-term biopsy sampling using citizen scientists can increase capture success and provide reliable cougar-density information at a reasonable cost.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Salmon data mobilization

Despite substantial research and conservation efforts, many salmon populations are in decline. Globally, salmon research is not delivering effective decision support products to help managers apply research insights as informed management actions. Data Mobilization (DM) is a key step towards building the wider evidence base required to deliver accountable, reliable, and usable scientific advice to managers. Best practices for DM are being adopted throughout the scientific community but have not permeated deeply into the culture of salmon research and conservation. To address this, we present a strategy for Salmon Data Mobilization (SDM). This strategy defines three spheres of agencies and practitioners that must interact to advance SDM: (1) authoritative bodies that can create policies to support SDM uptake; (2) agencies that can promote, fund, and implement those policies; and (3) the broad salmon community of practice that can support uptake of SDM within focused interest groups. We sketch a future for SDM and propose functional changes required to improve it throughout the community.

North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Bulletin↗

USGS2017

The planetary data system

In the early 1980s, the Space Science Board (SSB) of the National Research Council was concerned about the poor and inconsistent treatment of scientific information returned from NASA’s space science missions. The SSB formed a panel [The Committee on Data Management and Computation (CODMAC)] to assess the situation and make recommendations to NASA for improvements. The CODMAC panel issued a report [1,2] that led to a number of actions, one of which was the convening of a Planetary Data Workshop in November 1983 [3]. The key findings of that workshop were that (1) important datasets were being irretrievably lost, and (2) the use of planetary data by the wider community is constrained by inaccessibility and a lack of commonality in format and documentation. The report further stated, “Most participants felt the present system (of data archiving and access) is inadequate and immediate changes are necessary to insure retention of and access to these and future datasets.”

Lunar and Planetary Information Bulletin↗

USGS2021

Towards building a sustainable future: Positioning ecological modelling for impact in ecosystems management

As many ecosystems worldwide are in peril, efforts to manage them sustainably require scientific advice. While numerous researchers around the world use a great variety of models to understand ecological dynamics and their responses to disturbances, only a small fraction of these models are ever used to inform ecosystem management. There seems to be a perception that ecological models are not useful for management, even though mathematical models are indispensable in many other fields. We were curious about this mismatch, its roots, and potential ways to overcome it. We searched the literature on recommendations and best practices for how to make ecological models useful to the management of ecosystems and we searched for ‘success stories’ from the past. We selected and examined several cases where models were instrumental in ecosystem management. We documented their success and asked whether and to what extent they followed recommended best practices. We found that there is not a unique way to conduct a research project that is useful in management decisions. While research is more likely to have impact when conducted with many stakeholders involved and specific to a situation for which data are available, there are great examples of small groups or individuals conducting highly influential research even in the absence of detailed data. We put the question of modelling for ecosystem management into a socio-economic and national context and give our perspectives on how the discipline could move forward.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology↗

USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey unconventional petroleum systems research in south Mississippi: Observations on burial history and thermal maturity in the Cretaceous

Shale hydrocarbon ‘resource’ plays have revolutionized the United States energy mix over the last 5 years. These plays are diverse in lithology and age but share the common feature of occurring in ‘tight’ formations which require hydraulic (hydro-) fracturing for economic flow rates. In general, economic success requires an organic-rich reservoir with a quartz- or carbonate-rich mineralogy that responds to artificial stimulation by fracturing. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is tasked with estimating the quantity and quality of undiscovered hydrocarbons reservoired in shales. In support of that mission, we began an investigation of unconventional petroleum systems in the southern part of the Mississippi Salt Basin in 2012, building on earlier reconnaissance work that identified this area as potentially prospective for ‘shale’ gas (Enomoto et al., 2012). While our recent studies (Valentine et al., 2014a; Hackley et al., 2014) have suggested poor ‘shale’ gas prospectivity (due to low organic content, low porosity, high clay content, and significant depth), at least for the Aptian section, they also have generated a wealth of new information about thermal maturity in the Cretaceous of south Mississippi. In addition, our work to-date has set the stage for future USGS evaluation of unconventional hydrocarbons reservoired in the Upper Cretaceous Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS). Here, we summarize recent USGS thermal maturity studies in the south Mississippi Salt Basin.

Mississippi↗

USGS2022

Magma storage and transport timescales for the 1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption and implications for diffusion chronometry studies using time-series samples versus tephra deposits

Complex crystal cargo in basaltic eruptions has the potential to yield diverse insights on pre- and syn-eruptive timescales of magma storage and transport. Research on eruption products from the 1959 eruption from Kīlauea Iki Crater at Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i) demonstrates that time-series samples collected during an eruption can yield a wealth of information not accessible by studying the fall deposit alone. Major element zoning in olivine crystals illustrates four environments of magma storage that were variably mixed and progressively involved in the eruption. Diffusion timescales retrieved from crystals < 1 mm in size are typically much shorter than those from crystals > 1 mm, illustrating the additional complexity of information recorded by different grain sizes and olivine populations. The timescales can be divided into two groups: (1) t > 100 days reflect longer-term magma recharge into Kīlauea’s deep (8–10 km) reservoir system and (2) t < 100 days broadly correspond to a period of unrest and inflation beginning ~ 3 months prior to eruption. Some timescales reflect syn-eruptive processes, where diffusion began after the eruption onset. Progressive changes in zoning populations in the time-series scoriae samples illustrate how quickly diffusive re-equilibration can erase older magmatic histories and information and underscores that studies on fall deposits can lead to an incomplete record of magmatic processes. Thus, diffusion timescales from fall deposits alone should be cautiously interpreted with the caveat that they may be missing a substantial part of the total eruptive event and, therefore, the record of magmatic histories inferred from crystal cargo.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Human behavioral response in the Ridgecrest earthquakes: Assessing immediate actions based on data from “Did You Feel It?”

Human behavioral response to earthquake ground motion has long been a subject of multidisciplinary interest and research. In most versions of seismic intensity scales, human perceptions and behavior are one component of the assignment of intensity. Public health research has shown that actions taken during earthquakes have a significant impact on the incidence of injury or the maintenance of safety. Based on this research, emergency managers and organizations promoting emergency preparedness have advocated strategies such as drop, cover, and hold on (DCHO) and promoted this safety measure through public education and annual drills. The “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) mapping system (see Data and Resources) based on an online questionnaire developed and maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey has provided opportunities for those who have experienced an earthquake to report this experience worldwide since 2004. The DYFI questionnaire, although designed to assign intensity, also contains questions regarding the behavior in which one has engaged during the earthquake. The questionnaire includes other important information that may elucidate behavioral response to earthquakes, including assigned intensity, emotional reaction, and whether damage occurred at the location where the earthquake was experienced. The very large number of people who completed DYFI questionnaires following the July 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes provides a robust dataset for analysis and suggests that as intensity and levels of fear increase, behavior becomes more active in terms of physical movement to locations of presumed safety. Among active responses including DCHO, going to a doorway, and running outside, DCHO was the least likely to be implemented. The study provides possible explanations for low participation in DCHO despite active campaigns to promote this strategy.

California↗

USGS2002

A bibliography of terrain modeling (geomorphometry), the quantitative representation of topography: Supplement 4.0

Terrain modeling, the practice of ground-surface quantification, is an amalgam of Earth science, mathematics, engineering, and computer science. The discipline is known variously as geomorphometry (or simply morphometry), terrain analysis, and quantitative geomorphology. It continues to grow through myriad applications to hydrology, geohazards mapping, tectonics, sea-floor and planetary exploration, and other fields. Dating nominally to the co-founders of academic geography, Alexander von Humboldt (1808, 1817) and Carl Ritter (1826, 1828), the field was revolutionized late in the 20th Century by the computer manipulation of spatial arrays of terrain heights, or digital elevation models (DEMs), which can quantify and portray ground-surface form over large areas (Maune, 2001). Morphometric procedures are implemented routinely by commercial geographic information systems (GIS) as well as specialized software (Harvey and Eash, 1996; Köthe and others, 1996; ESRI, 1997; Drzewiecki et al., 1999; Dikau and Saurer, 1999; Djokic and Maidment, 2000; Wilson and Gallant, 2000; Breuer, 2001; Guth, 2001; Eastman, 2002). The new Earth Surface edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research, specializing in surficial processes, is the latest of many publication venues for terrain modeling. This is the fourth update of a bibliography and introduction to terrain modeling (Pike, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1999) designed to collect the diverse, scattered literature on surface measurement as a resource for the research community. The use of DEMs in science and technology continues to accelerate and diversify (Pike, 2000a). New work appears so frequently that a sampling must suffice to represent the vast literature. This report adds 1636 entries to the 4374 in the four earlier publications1. Forty-eight additional entries correct dead Internet links and other errors found in the prior listings. Chronicling the history of terrain modeling, many entries in this report predate the 1999 supplement. Coverage is representative from about 1800 through early–mid 2002. Papers increasingly are published exclusively or in duplicate on the Internet's World Wide Web; the dates given here for Web addresses (URLs) that lack a print publication indicate a Web site's last update or my last access of it. The bibliography is arranged alphabetically and thus is not readily summarized. This introduction cites about 500 entries, a third of them grouped under 24 morphometric topics, as a guide to the listing's contents. Continuing the practice of previous bibliographies in the series to provide more information on a few applications (see summary of past topics in Pike, 2000a), this report elaborates further on topographic data, putative new parameters, tectonic geomorphology/neo-orometry, biogeography, ice-cap morphometry, results from the Mars Global DEM, landslide-hazard mapping, terrain modeling as physics, Hack's law, and broad-scale computer visualization. The literature of some of these subjects is large, and none of the summaries is intended to more than introduce the topic and comment on some of the current contributions of terrain modeling. Closing the essay is a discussion of pre-1900 papers that trace the evolution of ridge-line and watercourse quantification by descriptive geometry, as well as comments on some new books and an on-line bulletin board.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Geologic models underpinning the 2018 US Geological Survey assessment of hydrocarbon resources in the Eagle Ford Group and associated Cenomanian–Turonian strata, United States Gulf Coast, Texas

The availability of new geologic and production data has greatly increased since 2010, when the US Geological Survey (USGS) last assessed undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in the Cenomanian–Turonian (CT) Eagle Ford Group (EFG) across Texas. This new information facilitated an updated assessment of undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources in the Eagle Ford and associated CT strata. Literature and USGS research data were used to build the geologic models for the assessment units (AUs). The USGS defined six continuous AUs within the EFG: (1) Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Oil, (2) Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Gas, (3) Submarine Plateau-Karnes Trough Continuous Oil, (4) Submarine Plateau-Karnes Trough Continuous Gas, (5) CT Mudstone Continuous Oil, and (6) CT Mudstone Continuous Gas. An additional AU, the CT Slope Continuous Gas AU, was defined but not quantitatively assessed. The boundaries of these AUs were defined by thickness, lithofacies, thermal maturity, regional geology, and the spatial distribution of productive fairways. The resulting total mean estimates for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources for these six AUs are 8.5 billion bbl of oil and 66 trillion ft 3 of gas. These results for both oil and gas resources are within the top five volumes of previously assessed continuous accumulations in the United States and attest to the importance of the EFG and associated CT strata as a significant source of petroleum well into the future.

Texas↗

USGS1981

The U.S. Earthquake Prediction Program

Following on from the concepts of plate tectonics, the earth sciences are now embarking on a challenging course- the time prediction of geologic phenomena. Earthquake prediction is an outstanding example of this. However, earthquake prediction is not the only scientific goal. The destructive power of a large earthquake requires that we also take mitigating actions; these include earthquake engineering research to design construction that will resist earthquake shaking. Nevertheless, earthquake prediction has a vital role to play not only in the saving of lives, but in the reduction of economic loss and social disruption from large earthquakes. There are two distinct motivations for earthquake prediction. The mechanistic approach aims to understand the processes leading to a large earthquake. The empirical approach is governed by the immediate need to protect lives and property. With our current lack of knowledge about the earthquake process, future progress cannot be made without gathering a large body of measurements. These are required not only for the empirical prediction of earthquakes, but also for the testing and development of hypotheses that further our understanding of the processes at work. The earthquake prediction program is basically a program of scientific inquiry, but one which is motivated by social, political, economic, and scientific reasons. It is a pursuit that cannot rely on empirical observations alone nor can it carried out solely on a blackboard or in a laboratory. Experiments must be carried out in the real Earth.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2003

Comparisons of two moments‐based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [ Cohn et al. , 1997 ] and the Bulletin 17B [ Interagency Committee on Water Data , 1982 ] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed‐threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X 100 in some limited fixed‐threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed‐threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X 500 . B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV‐simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2002

Spent shot availability and ingestion on areas managed for mourning doves

Mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) hunting is becoming increasingly popular, especially in managed shooting fields. Given the possible increase in the availability of lead (Pb) shot on these areas, our objective was to estimate availability and ingestion of spent shot at the Eagle Bluffs Conservation Area (EBCA, hunted with nontoxic shot) and the James A. Reed Memorial Wildlife Area (JARWA, hunted with Pb shot) in Missouri. During 1998, we collected soil samples one or 2 weeks prior to the hunting season (prehunt) and after 4 days of dove hunting (posthunt). We also collected information on number of doves harvested, number of shots fired, shotgun gauge, and shotshell size used. Dove carcasses were collected on both areas during 1998-99. At EBCA, 60 hunters deposited an estimated 64,775 pellets/ha of nontoxic shot on or around the managed field. At JARWA, approximately 1,086,275 pellets/ha of Pb shot were deposited by 728 hunters. Our posthunt estimates of spent-shot availability from soil sampling were 0 pellets/ha for EBCA and 6,342 pellets/ha for JARWA. Our findings suggest that existing soil sampling protocols may not provide accurate estimates of spent-shot availability in managed dove shooting fields. During 1998-99, 15 of 310 (4.8%) mourning doves collected from EBCA had ingested nontoxic shot. Of those doves, 6 (40.0%) contained a?Y7 shot pellets. In comparison, only 2 of 574 (0.3%) doves collected from JARWA had ingested Pb shot. Because a greater proportion of doves ingested multiple steel pellets compared to Pb pellets, we suggest that doves feeding in fields hunted with Pb shot may succumb to acute Pb toxicosis and thus become unavailable to harvest, resulting in an underestimate of ingestion rates. Although further research is needed to test this hypothesis, our findings may partially explain why previous studies have shown few doves with ingested Pb shot despite their feeding on areas with high Pb shot availability.

Missouri↗