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USGS2025

Seismic moment and local magnitude scales in Ridgecrest, CA from the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study

We illustrate the systematic difference between moment magnitude and local magnitude caused by underlying earthquake source physics, using seismic moments submitted to the Statewide California Earthquake Center/United States Geological Survey Community Stress Drop Validation Study 2019 Ridgecrest data set. While the relationship between seismic moment and moment magnitude ( M or M w ) of log 10 ( M 0 ) ~ 1.5* M is uniformly valid for all earthquake sizes by definition (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979), the relationship between local magnitude M L and moment is itself magnitude dependent. For moderate events, ~3< M < ~6, M and M L are coincident; for earthquakes smaller than ~3, M L ~ 1.0 log 10 M 0 (Hanks and Boore, 1984). This is a physical consequence of the corner frequency fc becoming larger than the upper frequency of observation and implies that M L and M differ systematically by a factor of 1.5 for these small events. While this idea is not new, we propose a new, continuous relationship between local magnitude and moment, for magnitudes 2 to 6 which extrapolates to smaller and larger magnitudes, applicable to southern California specific to the Ridgecrest region. We make use of the plethora of seismic moments as submitted by many participants of the Community Stress Drop study, compared to the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) catalog magnitudes. Overall, the seismic moments in the Community Study recover moment magnitude well, so we use our new M L - M 0 to convert M L to M , refining the SCSN operational M Lr scale. This systematic difference of 50% in slope between local and moment magnitude at small magnitudes has implications for spectral stress drop estimates, earthquake ground motion modeling, as well as other magnitude scales and earthquake occurrence statistics.

California↗

USGS1991

Approaches to the conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere

Coastal wetlands rank among the most productive and ecologically valuable natural ecosystems on Earth. Unfortunately, they are also some of the most disturbed. Because they are productive and can serve as transportation arteries, coastal wetlands have long attracted human settlement. More than half of the U.S. population currently lives within 80 km of its coasts, and one estimate places 70% of all humanity in the coastal zone. Human impacts to coastal wetlands include physical alteration of hydrological processes; the introduction of toxic materials, nutrients, heat, and exotic species; and the unsustainable harvest of native species. Between 1950 and 1970, coastal wetland losses in the U.S. averaged 8 100 ha/year. In Central and South America, development pressures along the coastal zone rank among the most serious natural resource problems in the region..... Here, we (1) briefly describe coastal wetland avifauna, (2) discuss the threat of global warming on coastal wetlands, (3) use several Western Hemisphere wetlands as site-specific examples of development pressures facing these habitats, and (4) provide synopses of nongovernmental and governmental approaches to wetland conservation. Overall, we provide a socio-economic context for conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere. We suggest that efforts aimed at conserving sites of particular importance for their biological diversity should be pursued within a framework of wise use that addresses the broader issues of human population growth and economic development.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

USGS2021

The productivity of Cascadia aftershock sequences

This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock‐advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016) . Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock‐advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

Intertidal biological indicators of coseismic subsidence during the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii, Canada, earthquake

The 28 October 2012 M w 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a megathrust earthquake along the very obliquely convergent Queen Charlotte margin of British Columbia, Canada. Coseismic deformation is not well constrained by geodesy, with only six Global Positioning System (GPS) sites and two tide gauge stations within 250 km of the rupture area. To better constrain vertical coseismic deformation, we measured the upper growth limits of two sessile intertidal organisms, which are controlled by physical conditions, relative to sea level at 25 sites 5 months after the earthquake. We measured the positions of rockweed ( Fucus distichus , 617 observations) and the common acorn barnacle ( Balanus balanoides , 686 observations). The study focused on the western side of the islands where rupture models indicated that the greatest amount of vertical displacement, but we also investigated sites well away from the inferred rupture area to provide a control on the upper limit of the organisms unaffected by vertical displacement. We also made 322 measurements of sea level to relate the growth limits to a tidal datum using the TPXO7.2 tidal model, rather than ellipsoid heights determined by GPS. Three methods of examining the data all indicate 0.4–0.6 m subsidence along the western coast of Moresby Island as a result of the 28 October 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake. Our data are, within the errors, consistent with data from two campaign GPS sites along the west coast of Haida Gwaii and with rupture models that indicate megathrust rupture offshore, but not beneath, the islands.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Rupture passing probabilities at fault bends and steps, with application to rupture length probabilities for earthquake early warning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can quickly identify the beginning of a significant earthquake rupture, but the first seconds of seismic data have not been found to predict the final rupture length. We present two approaches for estimating probabilities of rupture length given the rupture initiation from an EEW system. In the first approach, bends and steps on the fault are interpreted as physical mechanisms for rupture arrest. Arrest probability relations are developed from empirical observations and depend on bend angle and step size. Probability of arrest compounds serially with increasing rupture length as bends or steps are encountered. In the second approach, time‐independent rates among ruptures from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), are interpreted to apply to the time‐dependent condition in which rupture grows from a known starting point. Length probabilities from a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation provide a reference of comparison. We illustrate the new approach using the discretized fault model for California developed for UCERF3. For the case of rupture initiating on the southeast end of the San Andreas fault we find the geometric complexity of the Mill Creek section impedes most ruptures, and only ∼5% are predicted to reach to San Bernardino on the eastern edge of the greater Los Angeles region. Conditional probabilities of length can be precompiled in this manner for any initiation point on the fault system and thus are of potential value in seismic hazard and EEW applications.

California↗

USGS2025

Magnitude, depth and methodological variations of spectral stress drop within the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present the first ensemble analysis of the 56 different sets of results submitted to the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence. Different assumptions and methods result in different estimation of the source contribution to recorded seismograms, and hence to the source parameters (principally corner frequency, f c ⁠ , spectral stress drop, Δσ, and seismic moment, M 0 ⁠ ) obtained from modeling calculated source spectra. For earthquakes smaller than magnitude (M) 2.5 there is negligible correlation between the f c values obtained by different studies, implying that no present method is reliable using available data. For larger magnitude events, correlation between f c measurements of different studies, within even a small M range is always higher than spectral ⁠Δσ , because the f c measurements simply reflect the underlying physical decrease in f c with increasing M. We model the observed trends of submitted f c with both magnitude and depth. Most methods report an increase in spectral Δσ with M, although a magnitude‐invariant spectral Δσ is within the confidence limits. The depth dependence is smaller and depends on whether a study allows attenuation to vary with source depth; a combination of depth‐dependent attenuation correction, and depth‐dependent shear‐wave velocity can compensate for reported depth trends. We model the submitted values to remove differing M and depth variation to investigate the relative interevent variability. We find consistent relative variation between individual events, and also lower relative spectral Δσ in the northwest of the aftershock sequence, and higher on the cross fault and in the region of main fault intersection. This large‐scale comparison implies that absolute spectral Δσ estimates are dependent on the methods used; studies of different regions or using different methods should not be directly compared and improved constraints on path and site corrections are needed to resolve these absolute spectral Δσ differences.

California↗

USGS1987

Avian habitat relationships in pinyon-juniper woodland

Habitat relationships of breeding birds were examined in northwestern Colorado in pinyon-juniper ( Pinus edulis-Juniperus osteosperma ) woodland and in openings where most overstory trees had been knocked down by anchor chaining. Vegetation characteristics and physical habitat features were measured in 233 0.04-ha circular plots around singing males of 13 species of birds from 15 May to 15 July 1980. Thirteen-group discriminant function analysis ordinated bird species along three habitat dimensions described by (1) canopy height; (2) slope, shrub size, and shrub species diversity; and (3) percentage canopy cover, large tree density, distance from a habitat edge, litter cover, and green cover. Woodland, open-area, and intermediate edge species were clearly segregated along the first discriminant axis, and species' associations with shrubs, inclination, ground cover, and edges were revealed by the ordinations along the second and third discriminant axes. Two-group discriminant analyses comparing occupied and available plots identified additional and more specific habitat associations. For example, Hermit Thrushes ( Catharus guttatus ) were associated with mature forested habitats and forest interiors, Virginia's Warblers ( Vermivora virginiae ) favored steep, oak-covered draws, Rock Wrens ( Salpinctes obsoletus ) selected areas where percentage log cover and small tree density were high, and Dusky Flycatchers ( Empidonax oberholseri ) preferred shrubby slopes with scattered large trees near woodland edges.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

USGS2024

Turbidite correlation for paleoseismology

Marine turbidite paleoseismology relies on the assumption of synchronous triggering of turbidity currents by earthquake shaking to infer rupture extent and recurrence. Such inference commonly depends on age dating and correlation of the physical stratigraphy of deposits carried by turbidity currents (i.e., turbidites) across great distances. Along the Cascadia subduction zone, which lies offshore the Pacific Northwest, USA, turbidite facies in core photographs, X-ray computed tomography images, and magnetic susceptibility (MS) data exhibit differences in character over relatively short distances, which implies that not all deposits can be correlated with confidence. Thus, subjective correlation based on expected similarity over great distances and weak age constraints does not independently support paleoseismic models. We present a new method for correlating turbidites along the Cascadia margin that can yield a more objective and repeatable stratigraphic framework to underpin earthquake recurrence. We use dynamic time warping to correlate MS logs and measure correlation coefficients of core pairs to evaluate correlation strength. We then compare these measures to a distribution of correlation coefficients of randomly generated turbidite sequences and find that only a small number of core pairs can be correlated more confidently than randomly stacked turbidites. This methodology promises a more robust correlation strategy for future stratigraphic studies.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

Revisions to some parameters used in stochastic-method simulations of ground motion

The stochastic method of ground‐motion simulation specifies the amplitude spectrum as a function of magnitude ( M ) and distance ( R ). The manner in which the amplitude spectrum varies with M and R depends on physical‐based parameters that are often constrained by recorded motions for a particular region (e.g., stress parameter, geometrical spreading, quality factor, and crustal amplifications), which we refer to as the seismological model. The remaining ingredient for the stochastic method is the ground‐motion duration. Although the duration obviously affects the character of the ground motion in the time domain, it also significantly affects the response of a single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillator. Recently published updates to the stochastic method include a new generalized double‐corner‐frequency source model, a new finite‐fault correction, a new parameterization of duration, and a new duration model for active crustal regions. In this article, we augment these updates with a new crustal amplification model and a new duration model for stable continental regions. Random‐vibration theory (RVT) provides a computationally efficient method to compute the peak oscillator response directly from the ground‐motion amplitude spectrum and duration. Because the correction factor used to account for the nonstationarity of the ground motion depends on the ground‐motion amplitude spectrum and duration, we also present new RVT correction factors for both active and stable regions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Historic mills and mill tailings as potential sources of contamination in and near the Humboldt River basin, northern Nevada

Reconnaissance field studies of 40 mining districts in and near the Humboldt River basin have identified 83 mills and associated tailings impoundments and several other kinds of mineral-processing facilities (smelters, mercury retorts, heap-leach pads) related to historic mining. The majority of the mills and tailings sites are not recorded in the literature. All tailings impoundments show evidence of substantial amounts of erosion. At least 11 tailings dams were breached by flood waters, carrying fluvial tailings 1 to 15 km down canyons and across alluvial fans. Most of the tailings sites are dry most of the year, but some are near streams. Tailings that are wet for part of the year do not appear to be reacting significantly with those waters because physical factors such as clay layers and hard-pan cement appear to limit permeability and release of metals to surface waters. The major impact of mill tailings on surface- water quality may be brief flushes of runoff during storm events that carry acid and metals released from soluble mineral crusts. Small ephemeral ponds and puddles that tend to collect in trenches and low areas on tailings impoundments tend to be acidic and extremely enriched in metals, in part through cycles of evaporation. Ponded water that is rich in salts and metals could be acutely toxic to unsuspecting animals. Rare extreme storms have the potential to cause catastrophic failure of tailings impoundments, carry away metals in stormwaters, and transport tailings as debris flows for 1 to 15 km. In most situations these stormwaters and transported tailings could impact wildlife but probably would impact few or no people or domes-tic water wells. Because all identified historic tailings sites are several kilometers or more from the Humboldt River and major tributaries, tailings probably have no measurable impact on water quality in the main stem of the Humboldt River.

Nevada↗

USGS1993

Relict colluvial boulder deposits as paleoclimatic indicators in the Yucca Mountain region, southern Nevada

Early to middle Pleistocene boulder deposits are common features on southern Nevada hillslopes. These darkly varnished, ancient colluvial deposits stand but in stark contrast to the underlying light-colored bedrock of volcanic tuffs, and they serve as minor divides between drainage channels on modern hillslopes. To demonstrate the antiquity of these stable hillslope features, six colluvial boulder deposits from Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada, were dated by cation- ratio dating of rock varnish accreted on boulder surfaces. Estimated minimum ages of these boulder deposits range from 760 to 170 ka. Five additional older deposits on nearby Skull and Little Skull Mountains and Buckboard Mesa yielded cation-ratio minimum-age estimates of 1.38 Ma to 800 ka. An independent cosmogenic chlorine-36 surface exposure date was obtained on one deposit, which confirms an estimated early to middle Quaternary age. These deposits have provided the oldest age estimates for unconsolidated hillslope deposits in the southwestern United States. We suggest that the colluvial boulder deposits were produced during early and middle Pleistocene glacial/pluvial episodes and were stabilized during the transition to drier interglacial climates. By comparison to modern periglacial environments, winter minimum monthly temperatures of -3 to -5 °C were necessary to initiate freeze-thaw conditions of such vigor to physically weather relatively large volumes of large boulders from the upper hillslopes of the Yucca Mountain area. These conditions imply that early and middle Pleistocene glacial winter temperatures were at least 1 to 3 °C colder than existed during the last Pleistocene glacial episode and 7 to 9 °C colder than present. We conclude that at least several early and middle Pleistocene glacial episodes were colder, and perhaps wetter, than glacial episodes of the late Pleistocene in the southern Great Basin. Geomorphic processes necessary to form these colluvial boulder deposits are not active on modern hillslopes in the southern Great Basin. In addition, the lack of young, relatively unvarnished colluvial boulder deposits on these hillslopes suggests that boulder-forming conditions did not exist during the late Pleistocene in this region. Modern semiarid hillslope processes primarily erode colluvium during infrequent high-intensity storms. The preservation of old, thin hillslope deposits and the less-than-2-m incision by hillslope runoff adjacent to these deposits, however, indicate that extremely low denudation rates have occurred on resistant volcanic hillslopes in the southern Great Basin during Quaternary time.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

How hot is too hot? Live-trapped gray wolf rectal temperatures and 1-year survival

The ability of physically restrained and anesthetized wolves to thermoregulate is lessened and could lead to reduced survival, yet no information is available about this subject. Therefore, we analyzed rectal temperatures related to survival 1 year post-capture from 173 adult (non-pup) gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) captured in modified foot-hold traps for radiocollaring during June–August, 1988–2011, in the Superior National Forest of northeastern Minnesota, USA. The maximum observed rectal temperature (“maxtemp,” ° F, ° C) in each wolf during capture ( x  = 104.0, 40.0; SD = 2.0, 1.1; min. = 95.9, 35.5; max. = 108, 42.2) was not a significant predictor of survival to 1 year post-capture. Although no weather or morphometric variable was a significant predictor of maxtemps, wolves initially anesthetized with ketamine–xylazine rather than telazol®–xylazine averaged higher maxtemps. This information does not fully address possible effects of high body temperatures related to live-capture and handling of wolves, but it does provide a useful waypoint for future assessments of this relationship and a reassurance to wildlife practitioners that the maxtemps observed in our study did not appear to affect 1-year survival.

Minnesota↗

USGS1968

On the maintenance of anomalous fluid pressures: I. thick sedimentary sequences

Various physical and chemical processes may be envisioned which will cause anomalous pressures on an underground fluid. In order to consider the maintenance of anomalous pressure, it is necessary to consider the problem as one of nonsteady fluid flow. The time rate of pressure change and maintenance depends upon the hydrodynamics of flow through porous media and the particular boundary conditions. This paper presents a series of general solutions to hydrodynamic models which are germane to the problem of creating and maintaining excess-fluid pressures in a thick sedimentary sequence. The creation and maintenance of fluid pressures approaching lithostatic pressure through a process of continuous sedimentation was evaluated. Our results indicate that a sedimentation rate of 500 m/10 6 yr (reasonable for the Gulf Coast) will create fluid pressures approaching lithostatic in a sedimentary column that has a hydraulic conductivity of 10 -8 cm sec -1 , or lower. It is apparent that the creation of anomalous pressure and its maintenance depends, to a large degree, upon the hydraulic conductivity and, to a lesser extent, upon the specific storage of clay layers within the system. © 1968, The Geological Society of America, Inc.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2025

A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Managing for a changing climate: A bended interdisciplinary climate course

We developed a blended (or hybrid) interactive course— Managing for a Changing Climate —that provides a holistic view of climate change. The course results from communication with university students and natural and cultural resource managers as well as the need for educational efforts aimed at the public, legislators, and decision-makers. Content includes the components of the physical climate system, natural climate variability, anthropogenic drivers of climate change, climate models and projections, climate assessments, energy economics, environmental policy, vulnerabilities to climate hazards, impacts of climate change, and decision-making related to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. To convey most of the content, the course-development team created over 50 short videos (3–10 min each) in partnership with experts from a variety of academic, government, and industry institutions. The blended course has been offered as an upper-division, undergraduate course in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability and School of Meteorology (four times) and College of International Studies (in Italy, once) at the University of Oklahoma with over 100 total students. The course has also been presented online-only at no cost to the participants in four fall semesters with over 1,000 total registrations. Videos created for this course are freely available on the YouTube page of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. This course and its associated materials comprise high-quality, formal climate training and education that can be adapted to other formal and informal education settings beyond the walls of the university.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

USGS2006

Multiple constraints on the age of a Pleistocene lava dam across the Little Colorado River at Grand Falls, Arizona

The Grand Falls basalt lava flow in northern Arizona was emplaced in late Pleistocene time. It flowed 10 km from its vent area to the Little Colorado River, where it cascaded into and filled a 65-m-deep canyon to form the Grand Falls lava dam. Lava continued ???25 km downstream and ???1 km onto the far rim beyond where the canyon was filled. Subsequent fluvial sedimentation filled the reservoir behind the dam, and eventually the river established a channel along the margin of the lava flow to the site where water falls back into the pre-eruption canyon. The ca. 150 ka age of the Grand Falls flow provided by whole-rock K-Ar analysis in the 1970s is inconsistent with the preservation of centimeter-scale flow-top features on the surface of the flow and the near absence of physical and chemical weathering on the flow downstream of the falls. The buried Little Colorado River channel and the present-day channel are at nearly the same elevation, indicating that very little, if any, regional downcutting has occurred since emplacement of the flow. Newly applied dating techniques better define the age of the lava dam. Infrared-stimulated luminescence dating of silty mudstone baked by the lava yielded an age of 19.6 ?? 1.2 ka. Samples from three noneroded or slightly eroded outcrops at the top of the lava flow yielded 3He cosmogenic ages of 16 ?? 1 ka, 17 ?? 1 ka, and 20 ?? 1 ka. A mean age of 8 ?? 19 ka was obtained from averaging four samples using the 40Ar/39Ar step-heating method. Finally, paleomagnetic directions in lava samples from two sites at Grand Falls and one at the vent area are nearly identical and match the curve of magnetic secular variation at ca. 15 ka, 19 ka, 23 ka, and 28 ka. We conclude that the Grand Falls flow was emplaced at ca. 20 ka. ?? 2006 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2003

Estimation of ground motion for Bhuj (26 January 2001; Mw 7.6) and for future earthquakes in India

Only five moderate and large earthquakes ( M w ≥5.7) in India—three in the Indian shield region and two in the Himalayan arc region—have given rise to multiple strong ground-motion recordings. Near-source data are available for only two of these events. The Bhuj earthquake ( M w 7.6), which occurred in the shield region, gave rise to useful recordings at distances exceeding 550 km. Because of the scarcity of the data, we use the stochastic method to estimate ground motions. We assume that (1) S waves dominate at R < 100 km and Lg waves at R ≥ 100 km, (2) Q = 508 f 0.48 is valid for the Indian shield as well as the Himalayan arc region, (3) the effective duration is given by fc -1 + 0.05R, where fc is the corner frequency, and R is the hypocentral distance in kilometer, and (4) the acceleration spectra are sharply cut off beyond 35 Hz. We use two finite-source stochastic models. One is an approximate model that reduces to the ω 2 -source model at distances greater that about twice the source dimension. This model has the advantage that the ground motion is controlled by the familiar stress parameter, Δ σ . In the other finite-source model, which is more reliable for near-source ground-motion estimation, the high-frequency radiation is controlled by the strength factor, sfact , a quantity that is physically related to the maximum slip rate on the fault. We estimate Δ σ needed to fit the observed Amax and Vmax data of each earthquake (which are mostly in the far field). The corresponding sfact is obtained by requiring that the predicted curves from the two models match each other in the far field up to a distance of about 500 km. The results show: (1) The Δ σ that explains Amax data for shield events may be a function of depth, increasing from ∼50 bars at 10 km to ∼400 bars at 36 km. The corresponding sfact values range from 1.0-2.0. The Δ σ values for the two Himalayan arc events are 75 and 150 bars ( sfact = 1.0 and 1.4). (2) The Δ σ required to explain Vmax data is, roughly, half the corresponding value for Amax, while the same sfact explains both sets of data. (3) The available far-field Amax and Vmax data for the Bhuj mainshock are well explained by Δ σ = 200 and 100 bars, respectively, or, equivalently, by sfact = 1.4. The predicted Amax and Vmax in the epicentral region of this earthquake are 0.80 to 0.95 g and 40 to 55 cm/sec, respectively.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2005

Calculation of broadband time histories of ground motion, Part II: Kinematic and dynamic modeling using theoretical Green's functions and comparison with the 1994 northridge earthquake

In the evolution of methods for calculating synthetic time histories of ground motion for postulated earthquakes, kinematic source models have dominated to date because of their ease of application. Dynamic models, however, which incorporate a physical relationship between important faulting parameters of stress drop, slip, rupture velocity, and rise time, are becoming more accessible. This article compares a class of kinematic models based on the summation of a fractal distribution of subevent sizes with a dynamic model based on the slip-weakening friction law. Kinematic modeling is done for the frequency band 0.2 to 10.0. Hz, dynamic models are calculated from 0.2 to 2.0. Hz. The strong motion data set for the 1994 Northridge earthquake is used to evaluate and compare the synthetic time histories. Source models are propagated to the far field by convolution with 1D and 3D theoretical Green’s functions. In addition, the kinematic model is used to evaluate the importance of propagation path effects: velocity structure, scattering, and nonlinearity. At present, the kinematic model gives a better broadband fit to the Northridge ground motion than the simple slip-weakening dynamic model. In general, the dynamic model overpredicts rise times and produces insufficient shorter-period energy. Within the context of the slip-weakening model, the Northridge ground motion requires a short slip-weakening distance, on the order of 0.15 m or less. A more complex dynamic model including rate weakening or one that allows shorter rise times near the hypocenter may fit the data better.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗