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Results for “Journal of Marine Systems”

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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Development of a seamless multisource topographic/bathymetric elevation model of Tampa Bay

Many applications of geospatial data in coastal environments require knowledge of the nearshore topography and bathymetry. However, because existing topographic and bathymetric data have been collected independently for different purposes, it has been difficult to use them together at the land/water interface owing to differences in format, projection, resolution, accuracy, and datums. As a first step toward solving the problems of integrating diverse coastal datasets, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are collaborating on a joint demonstration project to merge their data for the Tampa Bay region of Florida. The best available topographic and bathymetric data were extracted from the USGS National Elevation Dataset and the NOAA hydrographic survey database, respectively. Before being merged, the topographic and bathymetric datasets were processed with standard geographic information system tools to place them in a common horizontal reference frame. Also, a key part of the preprocessing was transformation to a common vertical reference through the use of VDatum, a new tool created by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey for vertical datum conversions. The final merged product is a seamless topographic/bathymetric model covering the Tampa Bay region at a grid spacing of 1 arc-second. Topographic LIDAR data were processed and merged with the bathymetry to demonstrate the incorporation of recent third party data sources for several test areas. A primary application of a merged topographic/bathymetric elevation model is for user-defined shoreline delineation, in which the user decides on the tidal condition (for example, low or high water) to be superimposed on the elevation data to determine the spatial position of the water line. Such a use of merged topographic/bathymetric data could lead to the development of a shoreline zone, which could reduce redundant mapping efforts by federal, state, and local agencies by allowing them to customize their portrayals of the shoreline using a standard baseline elevation dataset.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗
USGS2018

Monitoring responses to variation in food supply for a migratory waterfowl: American Black Duck (Anas rubripes) in winter

Wintering Black Ducks ( Anas rubripes ) concentrate in wetlands along the Atlantic coast where natural and anthropogenic disturbances have increased over the last 50 years, a period in which the population of Black Ducks has declined. We studied the sensitivity of Black Ducks to perturbations in food supply that often result from disturbances by storms, predators, and people. In the paper, we characterize the responses of captive Black Ducks to shifts in food quality and availability during winter and apply those measures to a comparison of wild birds. Captive ducks that were fed intermittently (3 consecutive days/week) compensated for fasted days to achieve similar body mass and body fat to control birds that were fed every day on both animal- and plant-based diets. However, birds that were fed intermittently expended 15% more energy each day than controls when both groups were fed (536 vs. 464 kJ/kg 0.75 ), which indicates that variable food supply increases the costs of maintenance and thus reduces the number of birds that can be supported on the same resource of food without interruptions to foraging. Egg production was not affected by diet quality provided in spring or by the frequency of feeding during the preceding winter months. Black Ducks lost body fat through winter in captivity and in the wild. Fat stores of birds in New Jersey were greater than those of birds in Maine (13.3 vs. 8.3% of body mass) in January, which reflected the high energy demands of cold temperatures in Maine. Values for ∂ 15 N were greater in Maine than in New Jersey for both red blood cells and plasma, which indicated a consistent diet of marine invertebrates in Maine. Greater isotopic variation in red blood cells indicated that diets were more diverse in New Jersey than in Maine for both ∂ 15 N (9.7 ± 1.1 vs. 11.2 ± 0.4‰) and for ∂ 13 C (− 15.1 ± 2.2 vs. − 13.8 ± 1.4‰). Plasma ∂ 13 C was enriched over red blood cells in wild birds especially those with low fat stores, which suggested birds with low energy stores were shifting diets. Black Ducks can compensate for disturbances in feeding by increasing intakes if they have access to high quality wetlands where they are able to find abundant food. High energy demands at cold temperatures may constrain fat stores and thus the tolerance of feeding disturbances especially at the northern limits of the winter range. We hypothesize that decreasing variation in diet may indicate an increase in vulnerability to disturbance in winter when body fat is low. Recent efforts to assess and improve habitat quality of Black Ducks could be enhanced by monitoring the body composition and diet of birds to assess their vulnerability to disturbances in food supply and energy demands.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical, ↗
USGS2014

Model behavior and sensitivity in an application of the cohesive bed component of the community sediment transport modeling system for the York River estuary, VA, USA

The Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) cohesive bed sub-model that accounts for erosion, deposition, consolidation, and swelling was implemented in a three-dimensional domain to represent the York River estuary, Virginia. The objectives of this paper are to (1) describe the application of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic York Cohesive Bed Model, (2) compare calculations to observations, and (3) investigate sensitivities of the cohesive bed sub-model to user-defined parameters. Model results for summer 2007 showed good agreement with tidal-phase averaged estimates of sediment concentration, bed stress, and current velocity derived from Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) field measurements. An important step in implementing the cohesive bed model was specification of both the initial and equilibrium critical shear stress profiles, in addition to choosing other parameters like the consolidation and swelling timescales. This model promises to be a useful tool for investigating the fundamental controls on bed erodibility and settling velocity in the York River, a classical muddy estuary, provided that appropriate data exists to inform the choice of model parameters.

Virginia↗
USGS2022

Geologic framework, anthropogenic impacts, and hydrodynamics contribute to variable sediment availability and shoreface morphology at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY

Recent field and modeling studies have shown that barrier island resiliency is sensitive to sediment fluxes from the shoreface, making it important to evaluate how shoreface sediment availability varies in coastal systems. To do this, we assessed shoreface geology and morphology along the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, USA. We find that spatial variability in shoreface volume is influenced by sediment accommodation above the Holocene-Pleistocene (H-P) contact, historical barrier island evolution, and natural and engineered morphologic features, suggesting that simply identifying the H-P boundary may not be adequate for defining the shoreface reservoir. Further, sediment flux from the lower shoreface to the beach may be reduced by geologically limited cross-shore sediment distribution and shoreface steepening mediated by human modifications to the shoreline. Finally, the geologic limit of the shoreface is often shallower than a wave-based estimate of shoreface extent, implying that the geologic shoreface extent at our study site can be mobilized over short time scales (years-decades) and that the wave-based shoreface extent may be inaccurate when estimating shoreline response to sea-level rise. Our results demonstrate that the combination of hydrodynamics, humans, and geology on shoreface sediment fluxes impact how barrier islands respond to future changes in sediment supply and climate.

New York↗
USGS2018

Evolving environmental and geometric controls on Columbia Glacier’s continued retreat

Geometry strongly controls the dynamic behavior of marine‐terminating (tidewater) glaciers, significantly influencing advance and retreat cycles independent of climate. Yet the recent, nearly ubiquitous retreat of tidewater glaciers suggests that changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing may also drive dynamic change. To isolate the influence of geometry on tidewater glacier dynamics, we analyzed detailed observational time series from 2012 to 2016 for two tidewater glaciers with shared dynamic histories and environmental forcing: Columbia Glacier and its former tributary (Post Glacier) in southcentral Alaska. We find that although terminus retreat has driven decadal‐scale changes in dynamics of the Columbia‐Post system, environmental factors contribute to short‐term (i.e., seasonal) dynamic variability. In particular, analysis of force balance time series indicates that observed variations in speed result from seasonal changes to the subglacial hydrologic system and associated changes in basal drag. Variations in terminus position only drive noticeable speed change when the terminus retreats from regions of relatively high basal drag. In agreement with long‐term analyses of Columbia Glacier, we find that terminus geometry can perturb the timing of seasonal ice flow patterns. Specifically, our data support the idea that retreat of a glacier terminus into deeper water is accompanied by a shift in the primary control on frontal ablation. Although our analysis focuses on two Alaskan glaciers, our data suggest that changes in the relative importance of surface meltwater and buoyancy effects on submarine melting and/or calving may manifest as a shift in terminus change seasonality and offer a mechanism to identify frontal ablation controls.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Collision and displacement vulnerability to offshore wind energy infrastructure among marine birds of the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf

Marine birds are vulnerable to collision with and displacement by offshore wind energy infrastructure (OWEI). Here we present the first assessment of marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the California Current System portion of the U.S. Pacific Outer Continental Shelf (POCS). Using population size, demography, life history, flight heights, and avoidance behavior for 62 seabird and 19 marine water bird species that occur in the POCS, we present and apply equations to calculate Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability to OWEI for each species. Species with greatest Population vulnerability included those listed as species of concern (e.g., Least Tern [ Sternula antillarum ], Marbled Murrelet [ Brachyramphus marmoratus ], Pink-footed Shearwater [ Puffinus creatopus ]) and resident year-round species with small population sizes (e.g., Ashy Storm-Petrel [ Oceanodroma homochroa ], Brandt's Cormorant [ Phalacrocorax penicillatus ], and Brown Pelican [ Pelecanus occidentalis ]). Species groups with the greatest Collision Vulnerability included jaegers/skuas, pelicans, terns and gulls that spend significant amounts of time flying at rotor sweep zone height and don't show macro-avoidance behavior (avoidance of entire OWEI area). Species groups with the greatest Displacement Vulnerability show high macro-avoidance behavior and low habitat flexibility and included loons, grebes, sea ducks, and alcids. Using at-sea survey data from the southern POCS, we combined species-specific vulnerabilities described above with at-sea species densities to assess vulnerabilities spatially. Spatial vulnerability densities were greatest in areas with high species densities (e.g., near-shore areas) and locations where species with high vulnerability were found in abundance. Our vulnerability assessment helps understand and minimize potential impacts of OWEI infrastructure on marine birds in the POCS and could inform management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2015

Dynamic hypoxic zones in Lake Erie compress fish habitat, altering vulnerability to fishing gears

Seasonal degradation of aquatic habitats from hypoxia occurs in numerous freshwater and coastal marine systems and can result in direct mortality or displacement of fish. Yet, fishery landings from these systems are frequently unresponsive to changes in the severity and extent of hypoxia, and population-scale effects have been difficult to measure except in extreme hypoxic conditions with hypoxia-sensitive species. We investigated fine-scale temporal and spatial variability in dissolved oxygen in Lake Erie as it related to fish distribution and catch efficiencies of both active (bottom trawls) and passive (trap nets) fishing gears. Temperature and dissolved oxygen loggers placed near the edge of the hypolimnion exhibited much higher than expected variability. Hypoxic episodes of variable durations were frequently punctuated by periods of normoxia, consistent with high-frequency internal waves. High-resolution interpolations of water quality and hydroacoustic surveys suggest that fish habitat is compressed during hypoxic episodes, resulting in higher fish densities near the edges of hypoxia. At fixed locations with passive commercial fishing gear, catches with the highest values occurred when bottom waters were hypoxic for intermediate proportions of time. Proximity to hypoxia explained significant variation in bottom trawl catches, with higher catch rates near the edge of hypoxia. These results emphasize how hypoxia may elevate catch rates in various types of fishing gears, leading to a lack of association between indices of hypoxia and fishery landings. Increased catch rates of fish at the edges of hypoxia have important implications for stock assessment models that assume catchability is spatially homogeneous.

Ohio↗
USGS1994

Sediment thicknesses and holocene glacial marine sedimentation rates in three east Greenland fjords (ca. 68°N)

We compared measured and estimated sediment budgets in heavily glaciated fjords in East Greenland. Mass balance calculations and regional glacio-climatic conditions suggest that the sediment flux to the seafloor in Kangerdlugssuaq and Nansen fjords should be dominated by iceberg rafting and not by the rain-out of suspended particulates in meltwater, as the glacier calving flux is estimated at 15 and , compared to meltwater volumes of 4.4 and , respectively. Gravity cores in the three fjords indicate that the uppermost 1-2.5 m of sediment consists of diamictons or fine-grained laminated muds. AMS radiocarbon dates on calcareous foramininfera or shells (16 total) indicate sedimentation rates of 110 to 340 cm/ka within the fjords over the last 1 ka, and 10-20 cm/ka during the Holecene on the inner and middle shelf. Annual sediment discharge is around tonnes/yr within the Kangerdlugssuaq Fjord and Trough system, which translates into an average basin-wide rate of denudation of 0.01 mm/yr (0.01 m/ka). Air gun and deep-towed (Huntec) seismic profiling was carried out in Kangerdlugssuaq and Nansen fjords, East Greenland, and showed that sediment fills averaged 500 and 350 m respectively; they consist primarily of acoustically stratified sediments. If the sediment fills are entirely Holocene in age then the required average sediment accumulation rates of 35-50 m/ka are an order of magnitude larger than the controlled rates of the last 1-2 ka. This raises the possibility that fjord sediments may be by-passed and not always recycled during glacial advances; this will affect sedimentation rates on adjacent shelves and deep-sea areas during successive glaciations.

The Journal of Geology↗
USGS2019

Seasonal, tidal, and geomorphic controls on sediment export to Amazon River tidal floodplains

Mainstem–floodplain material exchange in the tidal freshwater reach of ma jor rivers may lead to significant sequestration of riverine sediment, but this zone remains understudied compared to adjacent fluvial and marine environ ments. This knowledge gap prompts investigation of floodplain-incising tidalchannels found along the banks of tidal rivers and their role in facilitating water and suspended-sediment fluxes between mainstem and floodplain. To evaluate this role, and how it evolves along the tidal river and with time, we measured water level, flow velocity, temperature, and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) in four tidal channels along the tidal Amazon River, Brazil. Eleven deployments were made during low, rising, high, and falling seasonal Amazon discharge. Generally, channels export high-SSC water from the mainstem to the tidal floodplain on flood tides and transfer low-SSC water back to the mainstem on ebbs. Along the length of the tidal river, the interaction between tidal and seasonal water-level variations and channel–floodplain morphology is a primary control on tidal-channel sediment dynamics. Close to the river mouth, where tides are large, this interaction produces transient flow features and current induced sediment resuspension, but the importance of these processes decreases with distance upstream. Although the magnitude of the exchange of water and sediment between mainstem and floodplain via tidal channels is a small percentage of the total mainstem discharge in this large tidal-river system, tidal channels are important conduits for material flux between these two environments. This flux is critical to resisting floodplain submergence during times of rising sea level.

Amazon River↗
USGS2013

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge , USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set ( N  = 67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.

Virginia↗
USGS1996

Gravity field over the Sea of Galilee: Evidence for a composite basin along a transform fault

The Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) is located at the northern portion of the Kinneret-Bet Shean basin, in the northern Dead Sea transform. Three hundred kilometers of continuous marine gravity data were collected in the lake and integrated with land gravity data to a distance of more than 20 km around the lake. Analyses of the gravity data resulted in a free-air anomaly map, a variable density Bouguer anomaly map, and a horizontal first derivative map of the Bouguer anomaly. These maps, together with gravity models of profiles across the lake and the area south of it, were used to infer the geometry of the basins in this region and the main faults of the transform system. The Sea of Galilee can be divided into two units. The southern half is a pull-apart that extends to the Kinarot Valley, south of the lake, whereas the northern half was formed by rotational opening and transverse normal faults. The deepest part of the basinal area is located well south of the deepest bathymetric depression. This implies that the northeastern part of the lake, where the bathymetry is the deepest, is a young feature that is actively subsiding now. The pull-apart basin is almost symmetrical in the southern part of the lake and in the Kinarot Valley south of the lake. This suggests that the basin here is bounded by strike-slip faults on both sides. The eastern boundary fault extends to the northern part of the lake, while the western fault does not cross the northern part. The main factor controlling the structural complexity of this area is the interaction of the Dead Sea transform with a subperpendicular fault system and rotated blocks.

Sea of Galilee↗
USGS2015

Evaluating unsupervised methods to size and classify suspended particles using digital in-line holography

Substantial information can be gained from digital in-line holography of marine particles, eliminating depth-of-field and focusing errors associated with standard lens-based imaging methods. However, for the technique to reach its full potential in oceanographic research, fully unsupervised (automated) methods are required for focusing, segmentation, sizing and classification of particles. These computational challenges are the subject of this paper, in which we draw upon data collected using a variety of holographic systems developed at Plymouth University, UK, from a significant range of particle types, sizes and shapes. A new method for noise reduction in reconstructed planes is found to be successful in aiding particle segmentation and sizing. The performance of an automated routine for deriving particle characteristics (and subsequent size distributions) is evaluated against equivalent size metrics obtained by a trained operative measuring grain axes on screen. The unsupervised method is found to be reliable, despite some errors resulting from over-segmentation of particles. A simple unsupervised particle classification system is developed, and is capable of successfully differentiating sand grains, bubbles and diatoms from within the surf-zone. Avoiding miscounting bubbles and biological particles as sand grains enables more accurate estimates of sand concentrations, and is especially important in deployments of particle monitoring instrumentation in aerated water. Perhaps the greatest potential for further development in the computational aspects of particle holography is in the area of unsupervised particle classification. The simple method proposed here provides a foundation upon which further development could lead to reliable identification of more complex particle populations, such as those containing phytoplankton, zooplankton, flocculated cohesive sediments and oil droplets.

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology↗
USGS2020

Spatial and temporal diving behavior of non-breeding common murres during two summers of contrasting ocean conditions

Successful foraging of marine predators depends on environmental conditions, which also influence prey availability. Neutral or negative El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation ocean conditions during the summer of 2013 and strongly positive conditions during the summer of 2015 in the northern California Current System provided a case study to evaluate a marine predator's response to anomalously warm conditions. We used satellite transmitters with saltwater switches to track movements and estimate dive behavior among non-breeding common murres (Uria aalge) off Oregon prior to and during a marine heatwave. We quantified differences in space-use between years, applied linear mixed models to determine environmental influences (e.g. sea surface temperature, surface salinity, chlorophyll a, ocean depth, and calendar date) on dive frequency and dive duration, and contrasted dive activity between time of day, year, and sexes. The majority of birds dispersed away from capture locations, which were situated near the southern range limit of their population. In both years, murres used the Salish Sea and the Columbia River plume; however, murres spent more time foraging in the Columbia River plume and in continental slope habitat during the marine heatwave of 2015. During 2015, dive frequency was reduced, and dive durations were almost twice as long during daytime indicating deeper or more dispersed prey. Increased dive frequency was positively associated with temperature, chlorophyll a, and crepuscular periods. Cluster analysis of dive activity and the top-ranked predictive dive duration model revealed associations between longer-duration dives and decreased dive frequency, marine slope habitat, and cooler ocean temperatures. Murres were relatively inactive throughout the night and we found no sex differences in dive activity. Changes in common murre foraging tactics were associated with ocean warming and revealed selectivity in spatial and temporal use of foraging habitats. Productive marine features including the Columbia River plume provided refuge for murres during apparently poor ocean conditions associated with the marine heatwave. Identifying refuge areas used by highly mobile species experiencing varying ocean conditions is critical for adaptive marine spatial planning that can accommodate a changing ocean climate.

California↗
USGS2015

Fluvial-aeolian interactions in sediment routing and sedimentary signal buffering: an example from the Indus Basin and Thar Desert

Sediment production and its subsequent preservation in the marine stratigraphic record offshore of large rivers are linked by complex sediment-transfer systems. To interpret the stratigraphic record it is critical to understand how environmental signals transfer from sedimentary source regions to depositional sinks, and in particular to understand the role of buffering in obscuring climatic or tectonic signals. In dryland regions, signal buffering can include sediment cycling through linked fluvial and eolian systems. We investigate sediment-routing connectivity between the Indus River and the Thar Desert, where fluvial and eolian systems exchanged sediment over large spatial scales (hundreds of kilometers). Summer monsoon winds recycle sediment from the lower Indus River and delta northeastward, i.e., downwind and upstream, into the desert. Far-field eolian recycling of Indus sediment is important enough to control sediment provenance at the downwind end of the desert substantially, although the proportion of Indus sediment of various ages varies regionally within the desert; dune sands in the northwestern Thar Desert resemble the Late Holocene–Recent Indus delta, requiring short transport and reworking times. On smaller spatial scales (1–10 m) along fluvial channels in the northern Thar Desert, there is also stratigraphic evidence of fluvial and eolian sediment reworking from local rivers. In terms of sediment volume, we estimate that the Thar Desert could be a more substantial sedimentary store than all other known buffer regions in the Indus basin combined. Thus, since the mid-Holocene, when the desert expanded as the summer monsoon rainfall decreased, fluvial-eolian recycling has been an important but little recognized process buffering sediment flux to the ocean. Similar fluvial-eolian connectivity likely also affects sediment routing and signal transfer in other dryland regions globally.

Indus Basin, Thar Desert↗
USGS1955

A mycosis-like granuloma of fish

Mycoses of systemic distribution are rarely observed in fresh-water fish in this country. In a recent review of atypical cell growths in fishes, Nigrelli cited the only known instance of a mycetoma in a North American fresh-water fish which occurred in the head of fingerling landlocked salmon from an Idaho hatchery. The fungus associated with this granuloma was characterized by a branching septate mycelium. Rucker reported a streptomycete which was pathogenic to blueblack salmon. This organism produced internal nodules containing masses of hyphae but no inflammatory response. A pathogenic fungus has been observed frequently in marine fish, however, and in both marine and fresh-water fish in Europe. This organism was tentatively classified as a Phycomycete in or near the order Chytridiales and was assigned to the genus and species Ichthyophonus hoferi , later reclassified as Ichthyosporidium hoferi . The graduloma described in this report occurs in fresh-water trout and is apparently caused by a budding, yeast-like form with no hyphae which evokes a tremendous inflammatory reaction. Morphologically, the organism does not resemble the previously described Ichthyosporidium. The lesions were first seen accidentally in sections prepared from a diplobacillus infection of brook trout termed “kidney disease.” Subsequently, the granuloma was observed in three widely separated infections involving the diplobacillus in each instance. The histological material was received in a fixed condition; thus, no cultural data was available and the nomenclature and classification of the mycotic organism were not attempted. The present distribution of the disease, however, with its potential threat to domestic fish populations, seemed to warrant a description and discussion of the disease. Efforts are in progress to culture the organism.

Journal of Infectious Diseases↗
USGS2004

Energy density and variability in abundance of pigeon guillemot prey: Support for the quality-variability trade-off hypothesis

1. The quality-variability trade-off hypothesis predicts that (i) energy density (kJ g-1) and spatial-temporal variability in abundance are positively correlated in nearshore marine fishes; and (ii) prey selection by a nearshore piscivore, the pigeon guillemot (Cepphus columba Pallas), is negatively affected by variability in abundance. 2. We tested these predictions with data from a 4-year study that measured fish abundance with beach seines and pigeon guillemot prey utilization with visual identification of chick meals. 3. The first prediction was supported. Pearson's correlation showed that fishes with higher energy density were more variable on seasonal (r = 0.71) and annual (r = 0.66) time scales. Higher energy density fishes were also more abundant overall (r = 0.85) and more patchy at a scale of 10s of km (r = 0.77). 4. Prey utilization by pigeon guillemots was strongly non-random. Relative preference, defined as the difference between log-ratio transformed proportions of individual prey taxa in chick diets and beach seine catches, was significantly different from zero for seven of the eight main prey categories. 5. The second prediction was also supported. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to summarize variability in correlated prey characteristics (energy density, availability and variability in abundance). Two PCA scores explained 32% of observed variability in pigeon guillemot prey utilization. Seasonal variability in abundance was negatively weighted by these PCA scores, providing evidence of risk-averse selection. Prey availability, energy density and km-scale variability in abundance were positively weighted. 6. Trophic interactions are known to create variability in resource distribution in other systems. We propose that links between resource quality and the strength of trophic interactions may produce resource quality-variability trade-offs.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS1996

The 1992 M=7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake: Coseismic deformation at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust

We invert geodetic measurements of coseismic surface displacements to determine a dislocation model for the April 25, 1992, M = 7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake. The orientation of the model slip vector, which nearly parallels North America-Juan de Fuca relative plate convergence, and the location and orientation of the model fault relative to the offshore Cascadia megathrust, suggest that the 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake is the first well-recorded event to relieve strain associated with the Cascadia subduction zone. We use data from three geodetic techniques: (1) the horizontal and vertical displacements of 13 monuments surveyed with the Global Positioning System, corrected for observed horizontal interseismic strain accumulation, (2) 88 section-elevation differences between leveling monuments, and (3) the uplift of 12 coastal sites observed from the die-off of intertidal marine organisms. Maximum observed displacements are 0.4 m of horizontal movement and 1.5 m of uplift along the coast. We use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate an optimal uniform slip rectangular fault geometry and its uncertainties. The optimal model using all the data resolves 4.9 m of slip on a 14 by 15 km fault that dips 28° SE. The fault extends from 1.5 to 8.7 km in depth and the main-shock hypocenter is close to the downdip projection of the fault. The shallowly dipping fault plane is consistent with the observed aftershock locations, and the estimated geodetic moment is 3.1 × 10 19 N m, 70% of the seismic moment. Other models that exclude leveling data collected in 1935 and 1942 are more consistent with seismological estimates of the fault geometry. If the earthquake is characteristic for this segment, the estimated horizontal slip vector compared with plate convergence rates suggests a recurrence interval of 140 years, with a 95% confidence range of 100–670 years. The coseismic uplift occurred in a region that also has high Quaternary uplift rates determined from marine terrace studies. If repeated ruptures of this southernmost segment of the Cascadia megathrust are responsible for the Quaternary uplift, a comparison of the coseismic uplift with coastal uplift rates suggests a recurrence interval of 200–400 years. Thus comparing horizontal and vertical coseismic to long-term deformation suggests a recurrence interval of about 100–300 years for M = 7 events at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗