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USGS2021

Investigation of scale-dependent groundwater/surface-water exchange in rivers by gradient self-potential logging: Numerical modeling and field experiments

Exchanges of groundwater and surface-water are fundamental to a wide range of water-supply and water-quality management issues but challenging to map beyond the reach scale. Waterborne gradient self-potential (SP) measurements are directly sensitive to water flow through riverbed sediments and can be used to infer exchange locations, direction (gain versus loss), scale, and relative changes, but to date applications to river corridor hydrology are limited. Numerical modeling and field experiments were therefore performed herein, each emphasizing waterborne gradient SP logging for identifying and locating focused vertical groundwater discharge (surface-water gain) and recharge (surface-water loss) in a river. Two and three-dimensional numerical models were constructed to simulate the polarities, appearances, and peak amplitudes of streaming-potential and electric-field anomalies on a riverbed and in the surface-water that were attributable to steady-state vertical fluxes of groundwater through high-permeability conduits in the riverbed. Effects of varied hydraulic length-scale of exchange and surface-water depth were tested through numerical modeling. Modeling results aided in data acquisition and interpretation for three repeated field experiments performed along a 1.5–2.0 km reach of the Quashnet River in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where focused, meter-scale groundwater discharges occur at discrete locations within otherwise ubiquitous and more diffuse groundwater upwelling conditions. Strong gradient SP anomalies were repeatedly measured in the Quashnet River at previously confirmed locations of focused groundwater discharge, showing the efficacy of waterborne gradient SP logging in identifying and characterizing groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics at multiple river network scales.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Seasonal impoundment management reduces nitrogen cycling but not resilience to surface fire in a tidal wetland

Hydrology and salinity regimes of many impounded wetlands are manipulated to provide seasonal habitats for migratory waterfowl , with little-known consequences for ecosystem structure and function. Managed hydrology can alter ecosystems by directly changing soil properties and processes and by influencing plant community dynamics. Additionally, management history may influence ecosystem response to disturbance, including fires. To better understand how wetland management regime influences ecosystem response to disturbance, we quantified elevation, soil nitrogen concentrations and process rates, and plant community structure and diversity in a natural experiment following the 2018 Branscombe Fire. We measured paired burned-unburned patches in both tidally-influenced and managed, seasonally-impounded wetlands in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Unburned ecosystem structure and nutrient cycling differed by wetland management history; unburned impounded wetlands were ∼1 m lower in elevation and plant community composition was dominated by succulents whereas the unburned tidal wetland was dominated by graminoids. Unburned impounded wetland soil nitrogen cycling (potential nitrification and denitrification) rates were <28% of those measured in unburned tidal wetland soils and soil extractable nitrate, ammonium, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentrations were also substantially lower in unburned impounded than unburned tidal wetlands. Despite these differences in pre-disturbance (i.e., unburned) conditions, all soil processes recovered to baseline levels within 6 months after surface fire, and we found no evidence of plant community change 1 year after fire in either wetland management type. Overall, water management history exerted stronger control on ecosystem processes and structure than surface fire disturbance. Low extractable soil nitrate and potential denitrification rates may indicate limitation of soil nitrogen removal in impounded wetlands, with implications for downstream environmental quality and eutrophication across managed landscapes.

California↗

USGS2019

Diatom assemblage changes in agricultural alluvial plain streams and application for nutrient management

In large, alluvial floodplains dominated by agriculture, small streams have the potential to experience nutrient enrichment affecting algal assemblage structure and metabolism. Nutrient enrichment is largely driven by application of nutrients and altered hydrologic regimes. To inform stressor–response-based nutrient reduction goals for agricultural alluvial plain streams, diatom assemblages were sampled from 25 streams located within the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) with various land management practices and associated P and N inputs. From August through September 2015, epidendric diatom assemblage samples were collected from instream woody debris. Field nutrient gradients were skewed toward higher concentrations, and ranges of previously reported diatom assemblage response thresholds indicative of oligotrophic conditions were not well represented. Ordination analysis identified a gradient in species composition associated with increasing P and decreasing dissolved oxygen. A significant shift in diatom assemblage structure occurred when total P concentrations in the MAP streams exceeded 0.12 mg L− 1 . Phosphorus-enriched systems were represented by a distinct set of indicator species, lower abundances of ubiquitous species, greater abundances of highly tolerant species, and greater abundances of high-P indicator species. No relationships were observed among diatom assemblage measures or traits with increasing N. Current results do not address potential criteria for identifying high-quality, oligotrophic streams. However, measures of diatom assemblage structure have potential for helping set benchmarks to reduce nutrient impacts and monitor effects of agricultural best management practices on MAP streams.

Yazoo River basin↗

USGS2022

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major-drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short-term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short-term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2015

Decadal changes in phenology of peak abundance patterns of woodland pond salamanders in northern Wisconsin

Woodland ponds are important landscape features that help sustain populations of amphibians that require this aquatic habitat for successful reproduction. Species abundance patterns often reflect site-specific differences in hydrology, physical characteristics, and surrounding vegetation. Large-scale processes such as changing land cover and environmental conditions are other potential drivers influencing amphibian populations in the Upper Midwest, but little information exists on the combined effects of these factors. We used Blue-spotted (Ambystoma laterale Hallowell) and Spotted Salamander (A. maculatum Shaw) monitoring data collected at the same woodland ponds thirteen years apart to determine if changing environmental conditions and vegetation cover in surrounding landscapes influenced salamander movement phenology and abundance. Four woodland ponds in northern Wisconsin were sampled for salamanders in April 1992-1994 and 2005-2007. While Blue-spotted Salamanders were more abundant than Spotted Salamanders in all ponds, there was no change in the numbers of either species over the years. However, peak numbers of Blue-spotted Salamanders occurred 11.7 days earlier (range: 9-14 days) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s; Spotted Salamanders occurred 9.5 days earlier (range: 3 - 13 days). Air and water temperatures (April 13- 24) increased, on average, 4.8°C and 3.7°C, respectively, between the decades regardless of pond. There were no discernible changes in canopy openness in surrounding forests between decades that would have warmed the water sooner (i.e., more light penetration). Our finding that salamander breeding phenology can vary by roughly 10 days in Wisconsin contributes to growing evidence that amphibian populations have responded to changing climate conditions by shifting life-cycle events. Managers can use this information to adjust monitoring programs and forest management activities in the surrounding landscape to avoid vulnerable amphibian movement periods. Considering direct and indirect stressors such as changing habitat and environmental conditions simultaneously to better understand trends in space and time can help improve monitoring programs for this taxa, which is at major risk of continued declines.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Predicting crappie recruitment in Ohio reservoirs with spawning stock size, larval density, and chlorophyll concentrations

Stock-recruit models typically use only spawning stock size as a predictor of recruitment to a fishery. In this paper, however, we used spawning stock size as well as larval density and key environmental variables to predict recruitment of white crappies Pomoxis annularis and black crappies P. nigromaculatus, a genus notorious for variable recruitment. We sampled adults and recruits from 11 Ohio reservoirs and larvae from 9 reservoirs during 1998-2001. We sampled chlorophyll as an index of reservoir productivity and obtained daily estimates of water elevation to determine the impact of hydrology on recruitment. Akaike's information criterion (AIC) revealed that Ricker and Beverton-Holt stock-recruit models that included chlorophyll best explained the variation in larval density and age-2 recruits. Specifically, spawning stock catch per effort (CPE) and chlorophyll explained 63-64% of the variation in larval density. In turn, larval density and chlorophyll explained 43-49% of the variation in age-2 recruit CPE. Finally, spawning stock CPE and chlorophyll were the best predictors of recruit CPE (i.e., 74-86%). Although larval density and recruitment increased with chlorophyll, neither was related to seasonal water elevation. Also, the AIC generally did not distinguish between Ricker and Beverton-Holt models. From these relationships, we concluded that crappie recruitment can be limited by spawning stock CPE and larval production when spawning stock sizes are low (i.e., CPE , 5 crappies/net-night). At higher levels of spawning stock sizes, spawning stock CPE and recruitment were less clearly related. To predict recruitment in Ohio reservoirs, managers should assess spawning stock CPE with trap nets and estimate chlorophyll concentrations. To increase crappie recruitment in reservoirs where recruitment is consistently poor, managers should use regulations to increase spawning stock size, which, in turn, should increase larval production and recruits to the fishery.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2013

Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Soil surface temperature is a critical boundary condition for the simulation of soil temperature by environmental models. It is influenced by atmospheric and soil conditions and by vegetation cover. In sophisticated land surface models, it is simulated iteratively by solving surface energy budget equations. In ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrology models, the consideration of soil surface temperature is generally simple. In this study, we developed a methodology for representing the effects of vegetation cover and atmospheric factors on the estimation of soil surface temperature for alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our approach integrated measurements from meteorological stations with simulations from a sophisticated land surface model to develop an equation set for estimating soil surface temperature. After implementing this equation set into an ecosystem model and evaluating the performance of the ecosystem model in simulating soil temperature at different depths in the soil profile, we applied the model to simulate interactions among vegetation cover, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil erosion to demonstrate potential applications made possible through the implementation of the methodology developed in this study. Results showed that (1) to properly estimate daily soil surface temperature, algorithms should use air temperature, downward solar radiation, and vegetation cover as independent variables; (2) the equation set developed in this study performed better than soil surface temperature algorithms used in other models; and (3) the ecosystem model performed well in simulating soil temperature throughout the soil profile using the equation set developed in this study. Our application of the model indicates that the representation in ecosystem models of the effects of vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics has the potential to substantially improve our understanding of the vulnerability of alpine grassland ecosystems to changes in climate and grazing regimes.

Qinghai;Tibet↗

USGS2014

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Brahmaputra;Ganges↗

USGS2022

Performance of a carbon dioxide injection system at a navigation lock to control the spread of aquatic invasive species

Natural resource agencies need effective strategies to control the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS) such as invasive fish, which can expand their range using rivers as hydrological pathways to access new areas. Lock and dam structures within major rivers are prospective locations to deploy techniques, such as carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) infusion into lock water, that could impede upstream AIS migration without disrupting vessel passage and lock operation. The current pesticide label for CO 2 in the United States allows injections of 100–150 mg/LCO 2 as a behavioral deterrent treatment for invasive carps. This research describes the first operationalizing and testing of a CO 2 injection and manifold distribution system at a 1,548,000-L navigation lock chamber on the Fox River near Kaukauna, Wisconsin, USA. Two chemical distribution manifolds located on the floor and wall of the chamber were independently tested to quantify mixing time, mixing homogeneity, injection efficiency, and operational power requirements under a range of operating parameters. Both manifold configurations were able to meet most performance benchmarks established during previous fish behavior studies. Certain limitations were exhibited and quantified for both manifold configurations in terms of mixing homogeneity and operational power. This research details the design and performance of CO2-to-water infusion systems that could be used to deter the spread of AIS at navigation pinch-points. These results may inform future CO 2 system designs and operating conditions to support natural resource management plans to limit the spread of AIS.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Plant-plant interactions in a subtropical mangrove-to-marsh transition zone: effects of environmental drivers

Questions Does the presence of herbaceous vegetation affect the establishment success of mangrove tree species in the transition zone between subtropical coastal mangrove forests and marshes? How do plant–plant interactions in this transition zone respond to variation in two primary coastal environmental drivers? Location Subtropical coastal region of the southern United States. Methods We conducted a greenhouse study to better understand how abiotic factors affect plant species interactions in the mangrove-to-marsh transition zone, or ecotone. We manipulated salinity (fresh, brackish or salt water) and hydrologic conditions (continuously saturated or 20-cm tidal range) to simulate ecotonal environments. Propagules of the mangroves Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa were introduced to mesocosms containing an established marsh community. Both mangrove species were also introduced to containers lacking other vegetation. We monitored mangrove establishment success and survival over 22 mo. Mangrove growth was measured as stem height and above-ground biomass. Stem height, stem density and above-ground biomass of the dominant marsh species were documented. Results Establishment success of A. germinans was reduced under saturated saltwater conditions, but establishment of L. racemosa was not affected by experimental treatments. There was complete mortality of A. germinans in mesocosms under freshwater conditions, and very low survival of L. racemosa . In contrast, survival of both species in monoculture under freshwater conditions exceeded 62%. The marsh species Distichlis spicata and Eleocharis cellulosa suppressed growth of both mangroves throughout the experiment, whereas the mangroves did not affect herbaceous species growth. The magnitude of growth suppression by marsh species varied with environmental conditions; suppression was often higher in saturated compared to tidal conditions, and higher in fresh and salt water compared to brackish water. Conclusions Our results indicate that herbaceous marsh species can suppress mangrove early seedling growth. Depending on species composition and density, marsh plants can slow mangrove landward migration under predicted climate change scenarios as salinity in freshwater and oligohaline wetlands increases with rising sea levels. Change in the relative coverage of mangrove forests and marshes will depend on both the ability of marsh species to migrate further inland as mangroves advance, and the ability of shoreline mangroves to adjust to rising sea level through accretionary processes.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

USGS2009

Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

Convolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium ( 3 H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3 H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3 H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.

Chesapeake Bay Basin↗

USGS2024

Controls on stable methane isotope signatures in northern peatlands and potential shifts in signatures under permafrost thaw scenarios

Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH 4 ), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH 4 production in these systems will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ 13 C-CH 4 ) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ 13 C signatures of CH 4 are used in top-down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH 4 production pathways and associated δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures in peatland types impacted by a changing climate is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including both hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures from a diverse set of high-latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH 4 stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal-Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ 13 C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (-61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost-free bogs (-74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (-81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 was best explained by sedge cover, CH 4 concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH ( r 2 = 0.50, p < 0.001). Emitted δ 13 C-CH 4 varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 , suggesting that porewater data can be used to predict changing emissions signatures from these systems. We calculated a weighted mean mixed atmospheric CH 4 signature for northern peatlands of -65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this signature is more sensitive to landscape drying (4 to 10 % depletion in δ 13 C) than wetting (1.5 to 5% enrichment in δ 13 C) under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2006

Application of environmental tracers to mixing, evolution, and nitrate contamination of ground water in Jeju Island, Korea

Tritium/helium-3 ( 3 H/ 3 He) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were investigated as environmental tracers in ground water from Jeju Island (Republic of Korea), a basaltic volcanic island. Ground-water mixing was evaluated by comparing 3 H and CFC-12 concentrations with lumped-parameter dispersion models, which distinguished old water recharged before the 1950s with negligible 3 H and CFC-12 from younger water. Low 3 H levels in a considerable number of samples cannot be explained by the mixing models, and were interpreted as binary mixing of old and younger water; a process also identified in alkalinity and pH of ground water. The ground-water CFC-12 age is much older in water from wells completed in confined zones of the hydro-volcanic Seogwipo Formation in coastal areas than in water from the basaltic aquifer. Major cation concentrations are much higher in young water with high nitrate than those in uncontaminated old water. Chemical evolution of ground water resulting from silicate weathering in basaltic rocks reaches the zeolite–smectite phase boundary. The calcite saturation state of ground water increases with the CFC-12 apparent (piston flow) age. In agricultural areas, the temporal trend of nitrate concentration in ground water is consistent with the known history of chemical fertilizer use on the island, but increase of nitrate concentration in ground water is more abrupt after the late 1970s compared with the exponential growth of nitrogen inputs.

Jeju Island↗

USGS2025

Ranking river basins for stream temperature research and monitoring in the contiguous United States

There is a need to prioritize research and data collection in river basins by integrating information from environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets to maintain acceptable water quality for human uses and ecosystem health. Multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors are responsible for driving changes in stream temperatures that can alter ecosystems and degrade water quality. These stressors are variable spatially and temporally, which can be challenging for prioritizing monitoring and research. In this study, an evaluation of variables related to stream temperature was performed for 163 candidate basins of the contiguous United States to highlight potential focal areas. Thirty variables were combined in six components: anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing, climate change, ecological sensitivity, socioeconomic sensitivity, and data availability. The components were incorporated into three themes: vulnerability of streams to thermal change, vulnerability of ecosystems, and vulnerability of communities. By evaluating each theme separately, patterns of vulnerability and potential resiliency were identified as well as consistency in ranks within the themes. For example, results of the national scale ranking indicated the Southern California Coastal basin (within California-Nevada region) was the highest-ranking priority in vulnerability of streams to thermal change and vulnerability of ecosystems. The analysis also identified vulnerable basins with gaps in monitoring. For example, the Missouri-Oahe basin (within the Northern High Plains region) was the highest-ranking priority for vulnerable communities with limitations in data availability. The ranking approach provides insight into basins that are resilient and are ideal candidates for monitoring and research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS1996

A test of vegetation-related indicators of wetland quality in the prairie pothole region

This study was part of an effort by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to quantitatively assess the environmental quality or 'health' of wetland resources on regional and national scales. During a two-year pilot study, we tested selected indicators of wetland quality in the U.S. portion of the prairie pothole region (PPR). We assumed that the amount of cropland versus non-cropland (mostly grassland) in the plots containing these basins was a proxy for their quality. We then tested indicators by their ability to discriminate between wetlands at the extremes of that proxy. Amounts of standing dead vegetation were greater in zones of greater water permanence. Depth of litter was greater in zones of greater water permanence and in zones of basins in poor-quality watersheds. Amounts of unvegetated bottom were greater in basins in poor-quality watersheds; lesser amounts occurred in all wetlands during a wetter year. Greater amounts of open water occurred during a wetter year and in zones of greater water permanence. When unadjusted for areas (ha) of communities, plant taxon richness was higher in wet-meadow and shallow-marsh zones in good-quality watersheds than in similar zones in poor-quality watersheds. Wet-meadow zones in good-quality watersheds had greater numbers of native perennials than those in poor-quality watersheds. This relation held when we eliminated all communities in good-quality watersheds larger than the largest communities in poor-quality watersheds from the data set. We conclude that although amounts of unvegetated bottom and plant taxon richness in wet-meadow zones were useful indicators of wetland quality during our study, the search for additional such indicators should continue. The value of these indicators may change with the notoriously unstable hydrological conditions in the PPR. Most valuable would be indicators that could be photographed or otherwise remotely sensed and would remain relatively stable under various hydrological conditions. An ideal set of indicators could detect the absence of stressors, as well as the presence of structures or functions, of known value to major groups of organisms.

Journal of Aquatic Ecosystem Health↗

USGS2016

An evaluation of methods for estimating decadal stream loads

Effective management of water resources requires accurate information on the mass, or load of water-quality constituents transported from upstream watersheds to downstream receiving waters. Despite this need, no single method has been shown to consistently provide accurate load estimates among different water-quality constituents, sampling sites, and sampling regimes. We evaluate the accuracy of several load estimation methods across a broad range of sampling and environmental conditions. This analysis uses random sub-samples drawn from temporally-dense data sets of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate, and suspended-sediment concentration, and includes measurements of specific conductance which was used as a surrogate for dissolved solids concentration. Methods considered include linear interpolation and ratio estimators, regression-based methods historically employed by the U.S. Geological Survey, and newer flexible techniques including Weighted Regressions on Time, Season, and Discharge (WRTDS) and a generalized non-linear additive model. No single method is identified to have the greatest accuracy across all constituents, sites, and sampling scenarios. Most methods provide accurate estimates of specific conductance (used as a surrogate for total dissolved solids or specific major ions) and total nitrogen – lower accuracy is observed for the estimation of nitrate, total phosphorus and suspended sediment loads. Methods that allow for flexibility in the relation between concentration and flow conditions, specifically Beale’s ratio estimator and WRTDS, exhibit greater estimation accuracy and lower bias. Evaluation of methods across simulated sampling scenarios indicate that (1) high-flow sampling is necessary to produce accurate load estimates, (2) extrapolation of sample data through time or across more extreme flow conditions reduces load estimate accuracy, and (3) WRTDS and methods that use a Kalman filter or smoothing to correct for departures between individual modeled and observed values benefit most from more frequent water-quality sampling.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2021

Uncertainty in critical source area predictions from watershed-scale hydrologic models

Watershed-scale hydrologic models are frequently used to inform conservation and restoration efforts by identifying critical source areas (CSAs; alternatively 'hotspots'), defined as areas that export relatively greater quantities of nutrients and sediment. The CSAs can then be prioritized or ‘targeted’ for conservation and restoration to ensure efficient use of limited resources. However, CSA simulations from watershed-scale hydrologic models may be uncertain and it is critical that the extent and implications of this uncertainty be conveyed to stakeholders and decision makers. We used an ensemble of four independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models and a SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model to simulate CSA locations for flow, phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment within the ~17,000-km 2 Maumee River watershed at the HUC-12 scale. We then assessed uncertainty in CSA simulations determined as the variation in CSA locations across the models. Our application of an ensemble of models - differing with respect to inputs, structure, and parameterization - facilitated an improved accounting of CSA prediction uncertainty. We found that the models agreed on the location of a subset of CSAs, and that these locations may be targeted with relative confidence. However, models more often disagreed on CSA locations. On average, only 16%–46% of HUC-12 subwatersheds simulated as a CSA by one model were also simulated as a CSA by a different model. Our work shows that simulated CSA locations are highly uncertain and may vary substantially across models. Hence, while models may be useful in informing conservation and restoration planning, their application to identify CSA locations would benefit from comprehensive uncertainty analyses to avoid inefficient use of limited resources.

Ohio↗