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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Variability in synthetic earthquake ground motions caused by source variability and errors in wave propagation models

Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motions are used both to anticipate the effects of hypothetical earthquakes by forward simulation and to infer the behaviour of the real earthquake source ruptures by the inversion of recorded ground motions. In either application it is necessary to assume some Earth structure that is necessarily inaccurate and to use a computational method that is also inaccurate for simulating the wavefield Green's functions. We refer to these two sources of error as ‘propagation inaccuracies’, which might be considered to be epistemic. We show that the variance of the Fourier spectrum of the synthetic earthquake seismograms caused by propagation inaccuracies is related to the spatial covariance on the rupture surface of errors in the computed Green's functions, which we estimate for the case of the 2009 L'Aquila, Italy, earthquake by comparing erroneous computed Green's functions with observed L'Aquila aftershock seismograms (empirical Green's functions). We further show that the variance of the synthetic seismograms caused by the rupture variability (aleatory uncertainty) is related to the spatial covariance on the rupture surface of aleatory variations in the rupture model, and we investigate the effect of correlated variations in Green's function errors and variations in rupture models. Thus, we completely characterize the variability of synthetic earthquake seismograms induced by errors in propagation and variability in the rupture behaviour. We calculate the spectra of the variance of the ground motions of the L'Aquila main shock caused by propagation inaccuracies for two specific broad-band stations, the AQU and the FIAM stations. These variances are distressingly large, being comparable or in some cases exceeding the data amplitudes, suggesting that the best-fitting L'Aquila rupture model significantly overfits the data and might be seriously in error. If these computed variances are typical, the accuracy of many other rupture models for past earthquakes may need to be reconsidered. The results of this work might be useful in seismic hazard estimation because the variability of the computed ground motion, caused both by propagation inaccuracies and variations in the rupture model, can be computed directly, not requiring laborious consideration of multiple Earth structures.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2019

A combinatorial approach to determine earthquake magnitude distributions on a variable slip-rate fault

Combinatorial methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes on a fault whose slip rate varies along strike. Input to the problem is a finite sample of earthquake magnitudes that span 5 kyr drawn from a truncated Pareto distribution. The primary constraints to the problem are maximum and minimum values around the target slip-rate function indicating where feasible solutions can occur. Two methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquakes: integer programming and the greedy-sequential algorithm. For the integer-programming method, the binary decision vector includes all possible locations along the fault where each earthquake can occur. Once a set of solutions that satisfy the constraints is found, the cumulative slip misfit on the fault is globally minimized relative to the target slip-rate function. The greedy algorithm sequentially places earthquakes to locally optimize slip accumulation. As a case study, we calculate how earthquakes are distributed along the megathrust of the Nankai subduction zone, in which the slip rate varies significantly along strike. For both methods, the spatial distribution of magnitudes depends on slip rate, except for the largest magnitude earthquakes that span multiple sections of the fault. The greedy-sequential algorithm, previously applied to this fault (Parsons et al., 2012), tends to produce smoother spatial distributions and fewer lower magnitude earthquakes in the low slip-rate section of the fault compared to the integer-programming method. Differences in results from the two methods relate to how much emphasis is placed on minimizing the misfit to the target slip rate (integer programming) compared to finding a solution within the slip-rate constraints (greedy sequential). Specifics of the spatial distribution of magnitudes also depend on the shape of the target slip-rate function: i.e. stepped at the section boundaries versus a smooth function. This study isolates the effects of slip-rate variation along a single fault in determining the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes, helping to better interpret results from more complex, interconnected fault systems.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2019

The effect of stress changes on time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the central Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

Static and quasi-static Coulomb stress changes produced by large earthquakes can modify the probability of occurrence of subsequent events on neighboring faults. This approach is based on physical (Coulomb stress changes) and statistical (probability calculations) models, which are influenced by the quality and quantity of data available in the study region. Here, we focus on the Wasatch Fault Zone (WFZ), a well-studied active normal fault system having abundant geologic and paleoseismological data. Paleoseismological trench investigations of the WFZ indicate that at least 24 large, surface-faulting earthquakes have ruptured the fault’s five central, 35–59-km long segments since ~7 ka. Our goal is to determine if the stress changes due to the youngest paleoevents have significantly modified the present-day probability of occurrence of large earthquakes on each of the segments. For each segment, we modeled the cumulative (coseismic + postseismic) Coulomb stress changes (∆CFScum) due to earthquakes younger than the most recent event on the segment in question and applied the resulting values to the time-dependent probability calculations. Results from the Coulomb stress modeling suggest that the Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo segments have accumulated ∆CFScum larger than 10 bars, whereas the Weber segment has experienced a stress decrease of 5 bars, in the scenario of recent rupture of the Great Salt Lake fault to the west. Probability calculations predict high probability of occurrence for the Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, due to their long elapsed times (>1-2 ka) when compared to the Weber, Provo, and Nephi segments (< 1 ka). The range of calculated coefficients of variation (CV) has a large influence on the final probabilities, mostly in the case of the Brigham City segment. Finally, when the Coulomb stress and the probability models are combined, our results indicate that the ∆CFScum resulting from earthquakes postdating the youngest events on each of the five segments significantly affects the probability calculations for three of the segments: Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo. The probability of occurrence of a large earthquake in the next 50 years on these three segments may therefore be underestimated if a time-independent approach, or a time-dependent approach that does not consider ∆CFS, is adopted.

Utah↗
USGS2019

Improvements in seismic resolution and current limitations in the Global Seismographic Network

Station noise levels play a fundamental limitation in our ability to detect seismic signals. These noise levels are frequency-dependent and arise from a number of physically different drivers. At periods greater than 100 s, station noise levels are often limited by the self-noise of the instrument as well as the sensitivity of the instrument to non-seismic noise sources. Recently, station operators in the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) have deployed several Streckeisen STS-6A very broadband borehole seismometers. These sensors provide a potential replacement for the no-longer-produced Streckeisen STS-1 seismometer and the GeoTech KS-54000 borehole seismometer. Along with showing some of the initial observational improvements from installing modern very broadband seismometers at depth, we look at current limitations in the seismic resolution from Earth tide periods 100,000 s (0.01 mHz) to Nyquist at most GSN sites (0.02 s or 50 Hz). Finally, we show the potential for improved observations of continuously excited horizontal Earth hum as well as the splitting of very long-period torsional modes as a result of installing instruments at depth. Both of these observations make use of the low horizontal noise levels which are obtained by installing very broadband borehole seismometers at depth with noise levels similar to the Streckeisen STS-1.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2010

Viscosity and finite strength of the mantle as determined from water and ice loads

Some recent examples of transient Earth loads (Lake Bonneville, Utah; Glacier Bay, Alaska; northeast Greenland) indicate that both the viscosity and finite strength of the mantle are lower than is commonly presumed. A time constant (1/ e ) of 4000 years is estimated for Lake Bonneville, and of 1000 years for northeast Greenland. A strain rate of 10 −14 is typical. These figures imply viscosities in a homogeneous half space ranging from 10 20 to 10 21 poises. An upper limit of finite strength is set by Lake Bonneville at a few times 10 6 dyn/cm 2 . If mountain ranges like the Sierra Nevada or Himalaya are regarded as dynamically supported rather than static systems, this low value is not incompatible with other geologic observations.

Alaska, Utah↗
USGS1969

Confidence limits for the precision parameter κ

Confidence limits are calculated for the precision parameter κ used in the analysis of palaeomagnetic data and for the angular standard deviation σ. A set of tables for 95 per cent and 99 per cent confidence limits is presented.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1970

Latitude dependence of the angular dispersion of the geomagnetic field

Changes in the direction of the Earth's magnetic field at a given site are produced in part by wobble of the main geomagnetic dipole, in part by fluctuations in the intensity and direction of the non-dipole field, and in part by changes in the intensity of the main dipole field. These three processes combine to produce an angular variance that is strongly latitude dependent. A method is presented for isolating the contribution due to variation with latitude of the average intensity of the non-dipole field.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1971

Palaeomagnetism and potassium-argon ages of volcanic rocks of Ngorongoro caldera, Tanzania

Natural remanent magnetization (NRM) has been measured in 21 lava flows and 1 tuff in the south-west wall of Ngorongoro caldera, Tanzania. The lowest three lavas are normally magnetized, the next two have intermediate directions, and the remainder are reversed; potassium-argon dating places the reversal at 2.45 My, corresponding to the Gauss Matuyama epoch boundary. Alternating-field demagnetization was effective in removing the ubiquitous lightning-produced secondary magnetizations, but partial thermal demagnetization was not. Curie temperatures of the lavas fell into two groups: 250°–350°C and 570°–585°C, probably corresponding to unoxidized and oxidized titanomagnetites respectively. NRM directions in the lavas occurred in several distinct and stratigraphically continuous groups, suggesting intermittent eruption of groups of lavas. No correspondence was found between NRM groups and other parameters, such as Curie temperatures. The dispersion of mean NRM directions is large in comparison with late Quaternary lavas from low latitudes in the Pacific basin, but probably is not large relative to the proportion of the geomagnetic field in Africa that is non-dipolar. The mean palaeomagnetic pole is offset 10.5° from the geographic pole, but because of the large dispersion, the difference is not considered significant.

Ngorongoro caldera↗
USGS1974

Palaeomagnetism and magnetic–polarity zonation in some Oligocene volcanic rocks of the San Juan Mountains, south–western Colorado

Palaeomagnetic results have been obtained from thirty sites in intrusive and extrusive rocks of Oligocene age from the San Juan Mountains, south-western Colorado. All specimens from each site were subjected to af demagnetization, and the reliability of each site determined. Twenty-three sites gave reliable results. Because five sites from the thick intracaldera part of the La Jara Canyon Member of the Treasure Mountain Tuff appear to have become magnetized during the same small interval of geological time, their results were combined and their mean pole and direction used in the final calculations. The eighteen remaining reliable sites yielded an average Oligocene palaeomagnetic pole at 85·6° N and 298·0° E (δ p = 8°, δ m = 11°, k = 24·1). A stratigraphic sequence is given for the major San Juan ash-flow sheets and selected additional units with their corresponding magnetic polarities and mean K-Ar ages.

Colorado↗
USGS2010

Reflection—refraction of general P- and type-I S-waves in elastic and anelastic solids

The reflection and refraction of general (homogeneous or inhomogeneous) plane P and type-I S ( SV ) body waves incident on plane boundaries are considered for general linear viscoelastic solids. Reflection—refraction laws, physical characteristics of the waves, and the nature of critical angles are examined in detail at welded boundaries and a free surface. General visco-elasticity with no low-loss approximations predicts that contrasts in intrinsic absorption at boundaries give rise to inhomogeneous reflected and refracted waves with elliptical particle motions, velocities and maximum attenuations that vary with frequency and angle of incidence, energy propagation at speeds and directions different from phase propagation, phase propagation that in general is parallel to the boundary for at most one angle of incidence, and reflection—transmission coefficients dependent on energy flow due to wave interaction. None of these physical characteristics are predicted for waves incident on boundaries that respond instantaneously.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1985

Inversion of seismic refraction data in planar dipping structure

A new method is presented for the direct inversion of seismic refraction data in dipping planar structure. Three recording geometries, each consisting of two common-shot profiles, are considered: reversed, split, and roll-along profiles. Inversion is achieved via slant stacking the common-shot wavefield to obtain a delay time—slowness (tau— p ) wavefield. The tau— p curves from two shotpoints describing the critical raypath of refracted and post-critically reflected arrivals are automatically picked using coherency measurements and the two curves are jointly used to calculate velocity and dip of isovelocity lines iteratively, thereby obtaining the final two-dimensional velocity model. This procedure has been successfully applied to synthetic seismograms calculated for a dipping structure and to field data from central California. The results indicate that direct inversion of closely-spaced refraction/wide-aperture reflection data can practically be achieved in laterally inhomogeneous structures.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1987

Coincident seismic reflection/refraction studies of the continental lithosphere: A global review

Vertical-incidence reflection profiling has identified several characteristic features of the continental lithosphere including a generally transparent upper crust, a reflective lower crust, reflections from the crust-mantle boundary, and a commonly transparent upper mantle. The underlying physical causes of these characteristic features remain poorly understood. This review summarizes additional information brought to bear on the physical properties of these characteristic crustal structures through the use of coincident wide-angle refraction profiling.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1987

Crustal structure beneath exposed accreted terranes of Southern Alaska

The crustal structure beneath the exposed terranes of southern Alaska has been explored using coincident seismic refraction and reflection profiling. A wide-angle reflector at 8-9 km depth, at the base of an inferred low-velocity zone, underlies the Peninsular and Chugach terranes, appears to truncate their boundary, and may represent a horizontal decollement beneath the terranes. The crust beneath the Chugach terrane is characterized by a series of north-dipping paired layers having low and high velocities that may represent subducted slices of oceanic crust and mantle. This layered series may continue northward under the Peninsular terrane. Earthquake locations in the Wrangell Benioff zone indicate that at least the upper two low-high velocity layer pairs are tectonically inactive and that they appear to have been accreted to the base of the continental crust. The refraction data suggest that the Contact fault between two similar terranes, the Chugach and Prince William terranes, is a deeply penetrating feature that separates lower crust (deeper than 10 km) with paired dipping reflectors, from crust without such reflectors.

Alaska↗
USGS1988

Waveform modelling using locked-mode synthetic and differential seismograms: application to determination of the structure of Mexico

We have developed algorithms for modelling seismic waveforms to constrain regional Earth structure. The seismogram is represented as a sum of locked-mode travelling waves in a layered medium. This representation is convenient as it allows us to model structures with slowly varying heterogeneity and to construct differential seismograms. Describes the techniques we have implemented that enable us to compute synthetic and differential seismograms in an efficient and stable manner. The computational methods are sufficiently rapid that many modes can be included and in some cases the entire seismogram may be modified. These algorithms are applied to model a set of seismograms of southern Mexican earthquakes recorded in northern Mexico. The frequency bandwidth of these data is centred at 0.067 Hz and we demonstrate that even at these relatively high frequencies, many features of the seismogram can be successfully modelled. Our results suggest that the structure within the recording array in northern Mexico is resolvably different from that to the south. We find that the average shear velocity of the lower lithosphere of southern Mexico is very low, approximately 4.3 km s-1. If the low-velocity region is confined to the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt, the shear velocities between 20-80 km depth are approximately 3.3 km s-1. This may be correlated with partial melt and is consistent with the active volcanism and high heat flow found in the region. -Authors

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS1990

Brunhes chron excursion/polarity episode recorded during the late pleistocene, Albuquerque Volcanoes, New Mexico, USA

All basaltic lava flows of the Albuquerque Volcanoes (lat.: 35.2°N, long.: 253.2°E), Albuquerque-Belen Basin, New Mexico, record a short excursion/polarity episode. K-Ar isotopic age determinations (weighted average: 155 ± 47 ka) and evaluation of soil profiles on flow surfaces suggest the late Pleistocene ( circa between 250 and 80 ka) as the time of extrusion. Results from 63 sites in a minimum of eight flows yield a mean direction of D = 101.1°, I = -36.1°, α 95 = 1.2° (α 1 95 = 0.7, α 2 95 = 1.2), k = 2219 ( N = 8 flows) and a corresponding virtual geomagnetic pole position (VGP) of 354.1°E, 20.2°S, dp = 0.8°, dm = 1.4° ( A 1 95 = 0.5, A 2 95 = 1.4), and VGP angular standard deviation (ASD) = 1.8°. The unusual magnetization in flows of the Albuquerque Volcanoes is carried by fine-grained [single-domain (SD) and/or pseudo-single-domain (PSD)] low-Ti magnetite and is apparently not a function of complex sub-solidus alteration of magnetic phases. Underlying baked soils contain a relatively low coercivity magnetization with directions comprising two groups. One is roughly antipodal to the lava remanence; the other intermediate between the lava remanence and present field direction. Because all flows yield statistically indistinguishable directions, a field directional path clearly cannot be defined. At the precision level of our age determinations, the Albuquerque feature may correlate with other short polarity episodes or excursions of late Pleistocene age (e.g., Blake or Jamaica). Though characteristically limited in directional morphology, well-dated polarity episodes (i.e. sub-chrons) and excursions recorded in volcanic rocks may provide information on the frequency of significant dynamo instabilities.

New Mexico↗