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Hydrogeology and simulation of regional ground-water-level declines in Monroe County, Michigan

Observed ground-water-level declines from 1991 to 2003 in northern Monroe County, Michigan, are consistent with increased ground-water demands in the region. In 1991, the estimated ground-water use in the county was 20 million gallons per day, and 80 percent of this total was from quarry dewatering. In 2001, the estimated ground-water use in the county was 30 million gallons per day, and 75 percent of this total was from quarry dewatering. Prior to approximately 1990, the ground-water demands were met by capturing natural discharge from the area and by inducing leakage through glacial deposits that cover the bedrock aquifer. Increased ground-water demand after 1990 led to declines in ground-water level as the system moves toward a new steady-state. Much of the available natural discharge from the bedrock aquifer had been captured by the 1991 conditions, and the response to additional withdrawals resulted in the observed widespread decline in water levels. The causes of the observed declines were explored through the use of a regional ground-water-flow model. The model area includes portions of Lenawee, Monroe, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties in Michigan, and portions of Fulton, Henry, and Lucas Counties in Ohio. Factors, including lowered water-table elevations because of below average precipitation during the time period (1991 - 2001) and reduction in water supply to the bedrock aquifer because of land-use changes, were found to affect the regional system, but these factors did not explain the regional decline. Potential ground-water capture for the bedrock aquifer in Monroe County is limited by the low hydraulic conductivity of the overlying glacial deposits and shales and the presence of dense saline water within the bedrock as it dips into the Michigan Basin to the west and north of the county. Hydrogeologic features of the bedrock and the overlying glacial deposits were included in the model design. An important step of characterizing the bedrock aquifer was the determination of inputs and outputs of water—leakage from glacial deposits and flows across model boundaries. The imposed demands on the groundwater system create additional discharge from the bedrock aquifer, and this discharge is documented by records and estimates of water use including: residential and industrial use, irrigation, and quarry dewatering. Hydrologic characterization of Monroe County and surrounding areas was used to determine the model boundaries and inputs within the ground-water model. MODFLOW-2000 was the computer model used to simulate ground-water flow. Predevelopment, 1991, and 2001 conditions were simulated with the model. The predevelopment model did not include modern water use and was compared to information from early settlement of the county. The 1991 steady-state model included modern demands on the ground-water system and was based on a significant amount of data collected for this and previous studies. The predevelopment and 1991 simulations were used to calibrate the numerical model. The simulation of 2001 conditions was based on recent data and explored the potential ground-water levels if the current conditions persist. Model results indicate that the ground-water level will stabilize in the county near current levels if the demands imposed during 2001 are held constant.

Michigan

Analytical versus numerical estimates of water-level declines caused by pumping, and a case study of the Iao Aquifer, Maui, Hawaii

Comparisons were made between model-calculated water levels from a one-dimensional analytical model referred to as RAM (Robust Analytical Model) and those from numerical ground-water flow models using a sharp-interface model code. RAM incorporates the horizontal-flow assumption and the Ghyben-Herzberg relation to represent flow in a one-dimensional unconfined aquifer that contains a body of freshwater floating on denser saltwater. RAM does not account for the presence of a low-permeability coastal confining unit (caprock), which impedes the discharge of fresh ground water from the aquifer to the ocean, nor for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells, which is significant because water-level declines are greatest in the vicinity of withdrawal wells. Numerical ground-water flow models can readily account for discharge through a coastal confining unit and for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. For a given aquifer hydraulic-conductivity value, recharge rate, and withdrawal rate, model-calculated steady-state water-level declines from RAM can be significantly less than those from numerical ground-water flow models. The differences between model-calculated water-level declines from RAM and those from numerical models are partly dependent on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer system and the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. RAM invariably predicts the greatest water-level declines at the inland extent of the aquifer where the freshwater body is thickest and the potential for saltwater intrusion is lowest. For cases in which a low-permeability confining unit overlies the aquifer near the coast, however, water-level declines calculated from numerical models may exceed those from RAM even at the inland extent of the aquifer. Since 1990, RAM has been used by the State of Hawaii Commission on Water Resource Management for establishing sustainable-yield values for the State?s aquifers. Data from the Iao aquifer, which lies on the northeastern flank of the West Maui Volcano and which is confined near the coast by caprock, are now available to evaluate the predictive capability of RAM for this system. In 1995 and 1996, withdrawal from the Iao aquifer reached the 20 million gallon per day sustainable-yield value derived using RAM. However, even before 1996, water levels in the aquifer had declined significantly below those predicted by RAM, and continued to decline in 1997. To halt the decline of water levels and to preclude the intrusion of salt-water into the four major well fields in the aquifer, it was necessary to reduce withdrawal from the aquifer system below the sustainable-yield value derived using RAM. In the Iao aquifer, the decline of measured water levels below those predicted by RAM is consistent with the results of the numerical model analysis. Relative to model-calculated water-level declines from numerical ground-water flow models, (1) RAM underestimates water-level declines in areas where a low-permeability confining unit exists, and (2) RAM underestimates water-level declines in the vicinity of withdrawal wells.

Hawaii

Hydrogeologic setting, hydraulic properties, and ground-water flow at the O-Field area of Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

The U.S. Army disposed chemical agents, laboratory materials, and unexploded ordnance at O-Field in the Edgewood Area of Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, from before World War II until at least the 1950's. Soil, ground water, surface water, and wetland sediments in the O-Field area were contaminated from the disposal activity. A ground-water-flow model of the O-Field area was constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 1989 to simulate flow in the central and southern part of Gunpowder Neck. The USGS began an additional study of the contamination in the O-Field area in cooperation with the U.S. Army in 1990 to (1) further define the hydrogeologic framework of the O-Field area, (2) characterize the hydraulic properties of the aquifers and confining unit, and (3) define ground-water flow paths at O-Field on the basis of the current data and simulations of ground-water flow. A water-table aquifer, an upper confining unit, and an upper confined aquifer comprise the shallow ground-water system of the O-Field area. A lower confining unit, through which ground-water movement is negligible, is considered a lower boundary to the shallow system. These units are all part of the Pleistocene Talbot Formation. The model developed in the previous study was redesigned using the data collected during this study and emphasized New O-Field. The current steady-state model was calibrated to water levels of June 1993. The rate of ground-water flow calculated by the model was approximately 0.48 feet per day and the rate determined from chlorofluorocarbon dates was approximately 0.39 feet per day.

Maryland

Conjunctive-use optimization model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of northeastern Arkansas

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is a water-bearing assemblage of gravels and sands that underlies about 32,000 square miles of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Because of the heavy demands placed on the aquifer, several large cones of depression over 100 feet deep have formed in the potentiometric surface, resulting in lower well yields and degraded water quality in some areas. A ground-water flow model of the alluvial aquifer was previously developed for an area covering 14,104 square miles, extending northeast from the Arkansas River into the northeast corner of Arkansas and parts of southeastern Missouri. The flow model showed that continued ground-water withdrawals at rates commensurate with those of 1997 could not be sustained indefinitely without causing water levels to decline below half the original saturated thickness of the aquifer. To develop estimates of withdrawal rates that could be sustained in compliance with the constraints of critical ground-water area designation, conjunctive-use optimization modeling was applied to the flow model of the alluvial aquifer in northeastern Arkansas. Ground-water withdrawal rates form the basis for estimates of sustainable yield from the alluvial aquifer and from rivers specified within the alluvial aquifer model. A management problem was formulated as one of maximizing the sustainable yield from all ground-water and surface-water withdrawal cells within limits imposed by plausible withdrawal rates, and within specified constraints involving hydraulic head and streamflow. Steady-state flow conditions were selected because the maximized withdrawals are intended to represent sustainable yield of the system (a rate that can be maintained indefinitely). Within the optimization model, 11 rivers are specified. Surface-water diversion rates that occurred in 2000 were subtracted from specified overland flow at the appropriate river cells. Included in these diversions were the planned diversions of 63,339,248 ft3/d for the Bayou Meto project area and 55,078,367 ft3/d for the Grand Prairie project area, which factor in an additional 30 and 40 percent transmission loss, respectively. Streamflow constraints were specified at all 1,165 river cells based on average 7-day minimum flows for 10 years. Sustainable yield for all rivers ranged from 0 (Current, Little Red, and Bayou Meto Rivers) to almost 5 billion cubic feet per day for the Arkansas River. Total sustainable yield from all rivers combined was 12.8 billion cubic feet per day, which represents a substantial source for supplementing ground water to meet the total water demand. Sustainable-yield estimates are affected by the allowable upper limit on withdrawals from wells specified in the optimization model. Ground-water withdrawal rates were allowed to vary as much as 200 percent of the withdrawal rate in 1997. As the overall upper limit on withdrawals is increased, the sustainable yield generally increases. Tests with the optimization model show that without limits on pumping, wells adjacent to sources of water would have optimized withdrawal rates that were orders of magnitude larger than rates corresponding to those of 1997. The sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area while setting the maximum upper limit as the amount withdrawn in 1997 is 360 million cubic feet per day, which is only about 57 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997 (635.6 million cubic feet per day). Optimal sustainable yields from within the Bayou Meto irrigation project area and within the Grand Prairie irrigation project area are 18.1 and 9.1 million cubic feet per day, respectively, assuming a maximum allowable withdrawal rate equal to 1997 rates. These values of sustainable yield represent 35 and 30 percent respectively of the amount pumped from these project areas in 1997. Unmet demand (defined as the difference between the optimized withdrawal rate or sustainable yield, and the anticipated demand) was calculated using different demand rates based on multiples of the 1997 withdrawal rate. Assuming that demand is the 1997 withdrawal rate, and that sustainable-yield estimates are those obtained using upper limits of withdrawal rates of 100-, 150-, and 200-percent of 1997 withdrawal rates, then the resulting unmet demand for the entire model area is 275.5, 190.9, and 110 million cubic feet per day, respectively. Whereas, if the demand is specified as 100-, 150-, and 200-percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, and the sustainable-yield estimates remain the same, then the resulting unmet demand for the entire model area is 275.5, 508.8, and 745.8 million cubic feet per day, respectively. These unmet demands for ground water could be obtained from large sustainable surface-water withdrawals.

Arkansas

Ground-water potential of the glacial deposits near Logansport, Cass County, Indiana

The glacial deposits underlying a 260 square-mile area near Logansport, Indiana, range in thickness from 0 to 300 feet and consist of three semiconfined sand and gravel aquifer units separated and overlain by three semiconfining till units. The ground-water development potential of the lowest of the sand and gravel aquifers is considerable. Thickness of the aquifer is generally about 80 feet along the axis of the narrow buried valley that it fills. Maximum and average transmissivities of the aquifer are about 38,000 and 13,000 square feet per day, respectively. Withdrawal of 10 million gallons per day from the aquifer was simulated by a four-layer digital model of the study area. Simulated pumping centers were located in areas of high transmissivity and proximity to ground-water discharge. Results indicate an absence of hydrologic constraints to development of the quantities of ground water simulated in the model. However, the simulation of water-level declines of as much as 35 feet in the lowest aquifer indicates that interference with the operation of domestic wells is likely.

Indiana

Development and calibration of a two-dimensional digital model for the analysis of the ground-water flow system in the San Antonio Creek Valley, Santa Barbara County, California

A two-dimensional finite-difference model was used to simulate ground-water flow conditions in San Antonio Creek valley. The model was calibrated to simulate steady-state conditions as approximated by ground-water conditions in 1943 and transient conditions during the period 1944-77. The transmissivity of the aquifer and the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining bed underlying Barka Slough at the western edge of the basin were calibrated during the steady-stage simulation. Calibrated transmissivity values ranged from more than 20,000 feet squared per day along the axis of the valley to less than 100 feet squared per day along the perimeter. Net flux values (the difference between recharge and net discharge) along the San Antonio Creek channel were determined during the transient-state simulation by a least-squares calibration technique. Results of the calibration indicated that the net flux out of the system along the stream channel increased by about 4,030 acre-feet per year from 1943 to 1977. The model simulated that about 70 percent of the increase in net flux was derived from the reduction in ground-water discharge to Barka Slough and about 30 percent from water coming out of storage. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulation of the Regional Ground-Water-Flow System and Ground-Water/Surface-Water Interaction in the Rock River Basin, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, areal ground-water-flow model was developed to simulate the ground-water-flow system and ground-water/surface-water interaction in the Rock River Basin. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rock River Coalition. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the ground-water-flow system and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate ground-water/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional ground-water-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate ground-water-flow patterns at multiple scales. The ground-water-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including bedrock and surficial aquifers, ground-water/surface-water interactions, and ground-water withdrawals from high-capacity wells. The steady-state model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with hydraulic conductivity and base elevation zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups above the Precambrian bedrock and a regionally significant confining unit, the Maquoketa Formation. In the eastern part of the Basin where the shale-rich Maquoketa Formation is present, deep ground-water flow in the sandstone aquifer below the Maquoketa Formation was not simulated directly, but flow into this aquifer was incorporated into the GFLOW model from previous work in southeastern Wisconsin. Recharge was constrained primarily by stream base-flow estimates and was applied uniformly within zones guided by regional infiltration estimates for soils. The model includes average ground-water withdrawals from 1997 to 2006 for municipal wells and from 1997 to 2005 for high-capacity irrigation, industrial, and commercial wells. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the river network to the Rock River. The parameter-estimation code PEST was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match more than 8,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 9 streamgages. Results from the calibrated GFLOW model show simulated (1) ground-water-flow directions, (2) ground-water/surface-water interactions, as depicted in a map of gaining and losing river and lake sections, (3) ground-water contributing areas for selected tributary rivers, and (4) areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers. Ground-water flow patterns are controlled primarily by river geometries, with most river sections gaining water from the ground-water-flow system; losing sections are most common on the downgradient shore of lakes and reservoirs or near major pumping centers. Ground-water contributing areas to tributary rivers generally coincide with surface watersheds; however the locations of ground-water divides are controlled by the water table, whereas surface-water divides are controlled by surface topography. Finally, areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers generally extend upgradient from rivers but are modified by the regional flow pattern, such that these areas tend to shift toward regional ground-water divides for relatively small rivers. It is important to recognize the limitations of this regional-scale model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale flow systems (hundreds to thousands of feet) associated with minor water bodies are not considered; as a result, the model is not currently designed for simulating site-specifi

Scientific Investigations Report

Geophysical identification of potential groundwater – surface water interactions in the Bonita Peak Mining District, San Juan County, Colorado

This report includes the results and interpretation of geophysical investigations to aid in the location, identification, and conceptual site model (CSM) development of the near surface groundwater and surface water hydrology of the Upper Cement Creek and California Gulch of the Animas Rivers within the Bonita Peak Mining Districts (BPMD). Mine influenced water (MIW) from numerous mine adits within the BPMD has altered the geochemistry and ecology of these ground and surface waters. Many studies of varying scales have investigated the geology, hydrogeology, geochemistry, and aqueous chemistry of these adits and impacted areas. Field investigations using non-invasive geophysical methods were conducted in the summer of 2019 to aid in identifying potential groundwater inputs to these streams and further the CSM of the near surface within and along these streams. Two field deployments were completed in August and September of 2019. In August 2019, Phase 1 was completed using multifrequency electromagnetic induction (EMI) and thermal infrared imaging (TIR) to measure the bulk electrical conductivity, magnetic susceptibility, and the temperature response at known and suspected groundwater seeps into the Upper Cement Creek and California Gulch stretches of these alpine streams. Results and interpretation from Phase 1 were used to co-locate stretches of these streams for further detailed fiber optic distributed temperature system (FODTS) monitoring of the temperature dynamics for submeter identification of potential groundwater seeps during Phase 2. Phase 2 included additional EMI measurements, FODTS measurements, and repeated some Phase 1 measurements for improved data quality. All these data were used for the combined qualitative interpretation identifying seep locations. The data from both Phase 1 and Phase 2 are available in the USGS data release at: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5f18a30082cef313ed84879b. These data include detailed near-surface electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility mapping, discrete TIR imaging, and several kilometers of FODTS data. These data were georeferenced and used to identify potential groundwater seeps into these streams. The results indicate a complex near surface geophysical and hydrogeologic regime. Seeps are classified and spatially correlated to the EMI, TIR, and geochemical sampling results. This report is a thorough compilation of the geophysical field efforts in the summer of 2019, the data processing, and interpretations of these data. These data alone should not be used for final interpretations of the complex hydrogeology within these alpine systems. Rather, these data should be combined with other known data from various investigations to further refine the CSM and guide decisions for future investigations, watershed protective measures, and other site decisions. Geographical information system (GIS) layers of these results are available to project managers for such integration and combined interpretations.

Colorado

Geohydrology of the Keechi, Mount Sylvan, Oakwood, and Palestine salt domes in the northeast Texas salt-dome basin

The U.S. Department of Energy is considering the feasibility of using salt domes in the northeast Texas salt-dome basin as repositories for radioactive wastes that may require complete confinement for as much as 250,000 years. Four of fourteen known shallow piercement salt domes within the basin--Keechi, Mount Sylvan, Oakwood, and Palestine Salt Domes—have been selected as candidate domes for further study and possible selection as storage sites. The salt within these domes has penetrated as much as 20,000 feet of Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata, and presently .extends to within 120 to 800 feet of the land surface. The salt penetrates or closely underlies major freshwater and salinewater aquifers within the basin. To provide a safe repository for radioactive wastes within one or more of these domes, a thorough understanding of the geohydrology needs to be obtained, and the hydrologic stability of the domes needs to be established for the expected life of the storage facility. Dissolution may exist at all four candidate salt domes, possibly through contact with Cretaceous or Tertiary aquifers, or through fault systems in the vicinity of the domes. Strata overlying and surrounding Palestine and Keechi Salt Domes have been arched into steeply-dipping folds that are complexly faulted. Similar conditions exist at Oakwood and Mount Sylvan Domes, except that the Tertiary strata have been only moderately disturbed. Cap rock, which is generally accepted to be an indication of salt dissolution, is present in varying amounts over all four domes. Salinewater has been reported at the surface at all candidate domes except Oakwood, but only two water wells near the domes yield water containing possible anomalous concentrations of dissolved chloride--one at Keechi and one at Oakwood. Possible subsurface plumes of salinewater, which are indications of instability, exist at all four domes. Additional problems concerning the hydrologic stability of Oakwood and Palestine Salt Domes have resulted from the disposal of oil-field salinewater in the cap rock at the Oakwood Dome and previous solution mining of salt at the Palestine Dome Additional investigations are needed to determine if a selected dome is hydrologically stable. Needed investigations include: (1) A more complete comparative analysis of the regional and local geohydrologic system; (2) a site-specific drilling and sampling program to analyze the cap rock-aquifer boundary, sediment distribution, hydraulic-parameter variations, hydraulic-head relationships, and hydrochemical patterns; and (3) mass-transport computer modeling of ground-water flow at the domes.

Open-File Report

Simulation of ground-water flow and transport of chlorinated hydrocarbons at Graces Quarters, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Military activity at Graces Quarters, a former open-air chemical-agent facility at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, has resulted in ground-water contamination by chlorinated hydrocarbons. As part of a ground-water remediation feasibility study, a three-dimensional model was constructed to simulate transport of four chlorinated hydrocarbons (1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, trichloroethene, carbon tetrachloride, and chloroform) that are components of a contaminant plume in the surficial and middle aquifers underlying the east-central part of Graces Quarters. The model was calibrated to steady-state hydraulic head at 58 observation wells and to the concentration of 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane in 58 observation wells and 101direct-push probe samples from the mid-1990s. Simulations using the same basic model with minor adjustments were then run for each of the other plume constituents. The error statistics between the simulated and measured concentrations of each of the constituents compared favorably to the error statisticst,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane calibration. Model simulations were used in conjunction with contaminant concentration data to examine the sources and degradation of the plume constituents. It was determined from this that mixed contaminant sources with no ambient degradation was the best approach for simulating multi-species solute transport at the site. Forward simulations were run to show potential solute transport 30 years and 100 years into the future with and without source removal. Although forward simulations are subject to uncertainty, they can be useful for illustrating various aspects of the conceptual model and its implementation. The forward simulation with no source removal indicates that contaminants would spread throughout various parts of the surficial and middle aquifers, with the100-year simulation showing potential discharge areas in either the marshes at the end of the Graces Quarters peninsula or just offshore in the estuaries. The simulation with source removal indicates that if the modeling assumptions are reasonable and ground-water cleanup within30 years is important, source removal alone is not a sufficient remedy, and cleanup might not even occur within 100 years.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Simulated Effects of Seasonal Ground-Water Pumpage for Irrigation on Hydrologic Conditions in the Lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southwestern Georgia and Parts of Alabama and Florida, 1999-2002

To determine the effects of seasonal ground-water pumpage for irrigation, a finite-element ground-water flow model was developed for the Upper Floridan aquifer in the lower Flint River Basin area, including adjacent parts of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola River Basins. The model simulates withdrawal from the aquifer at 3,280 irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells; stream-aquifer flow between the aquifer and 36 area streams; leakage to and from the overlying upper semiconfining unit; regional ground-water flow at the lateral boundaries of the model; and water-table recharge in areas where the aquifer is at or near land surface. Steady-state calibration to drought conditions of October 1999 indicated that the model could adequately simulate measured groundwater levels at 275 well locations and streamflow gains and losses along 53 reaches of area streams. A transient simulation having 12 monthly stress periods from March 2001 to February 2002 incorporated time-varying stress from irrigation pumpage, stream and lake stage, head in the overlying upper semiconfining unit, and infiltration rates. Analysis of simulated water budgets of the Upper Floridan aquifer provides estimates of the source of water pumped for irrigation. During October 1999, an estimated 127 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of irrigation pumpage from the Upper Floridan aquifer in the model area were simulated to be derived from changes in: stream-aquifer flux (about 56 Mgal/d, or 44 percent); leakage to or from the upper semiconfining unit (about 49 Mgal/d, or 39 percent); regional flow (about 18 Mgal/d, or 14 percent); leakage to or from Lakes Seminole and Blackshear (about 2.7 Mgal/d, or 2 percent); and flux at the Upper Floridan aquifer updip boundary (about 1.8 Mgal/d, or 1 percent). During the 2001 growing season (May-August), estimated irrigation pumpage ranged from about 310 to 830 Mgal/ d, about 79 percent of the 12-month total. During the growing season, irrigation pumpage was derived from decreased discharge or increased recharge of stream-aquifer flux (from about 23 to 39 percent), leakage to or from the upper semiconfining unit (from about 30 to 36 percent), regional flow (from about 8 to 11 percent), Lakes Seminole and Blackshear (about 2 percent), and flux at the Upper Floridan aquifer updip boundary (about 1 percent). Storage effects (decreased storage gain or increased storage loss) contributed from about 11 to 36 percent of irrigation pumpage during the growing season. Water managers can use the model to determine where and how much additional ground-water pumpage for irrigation should be permitted based on a variety of hydrologic constraints. For example, the model results may indicate that in some critical locations, additional ground-water pumpage during a prolonged drought might reduce stream-aquifer flux enough to cause noncompliance of established minimum instream flow conditions.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia

Preliminary model of the pre-Tertiary basement rocks beneath Yucca Flat, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, based on analysis of gravity and magnetic data

The Environmental Restoration Program of the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office, was developed to investigate the possible consequences to the environment of 40 years of nuclear testing on the Nevada Test Site. The majority of the tests were detonated underground, introducing contaminants into the ground-water system (Laczniak and others, 1996). An understanding of the ground-water flow paths is necessary to evaluate the extent of ground-water contamination. This report provides information specific to Yucca Flat on the Nevada Test Site. Critical to understanding the ground-water flow beneath Yucca Flat is an understanding of the subsurface geology, particularly the structure and distribution of the pre-Tertiary rocks, which comprise both the major regional aquifer and aquitard sequences (Winograd and Thordarson, 1975; Laczniak and others, 1996). Because the pre-Tertiary rocks are not exposed at the surface of Yucca Flat their distribution must be determined through well logs and less direct geophysical methods such as potential field studies. In previous studies (Phelps and others, 1999; Phelps and Mckee, 1999) developed a model of the basement surface of the Paleozoic rocks beneath Yucca Flat and a series of normal faults that create topographic relief on the basement surface. In this study the basement rocks and structure of Yucca Flat are examined in more detail using the basement gravity anomaly derived from the isostatic gravity inversion model of Phelps and others (1999) and high-resolution magnetic data, as part of an effort to gain a better understanding of the Paleozoic rocks beneath Yucca Flat in support of groundwater modeling.

Nevada

Effects of lowering interior canal stages on salt-water intrusion into the shallow aquifer in southeast Palm Beach County, Florida

Land in southeast Palm Beach County is undergoing a large-scale change in use, from agricultural to residential. To accommodate residential use, a proposal has been made by developers to the Board of the Lake Worth Drainage District to lower the canal stages in the interior part of the area undergoing change. This report documents one of the possible effects of such lowering. Of particular interest to the Board was whether the lower canal stages would cause an increase in salt-water intrusion into the shallow aquifer along the coast. The two main tools used in the investigation were a digital model for aquifer evaluation and an analytical technique for predicting the movement of the salt-water front in response to a change of ground-water flow into the ocean. The method of investigation consisted of developing a digital ground-water flow model for three east-west test strips. They pass through the northern half of municipal well fields in Lake Worth, Delray Beach, and Boca Raton. The strips were first modeled with no change in interior canal stages. Then they were modeled with a change in canal stages of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.6 metres). Also, two land development schemes were tested. One was for a continuation of the present level of land development, simulated by continuing the present pumpage rates. The second scheme was for land development to continue until the maximum allowable densities were reached, simulated by increasing the pumping rates. The results of the test runs for an east-west strip through Lake Worth show that lowering part of the interior canal water levels 3 feet (1.0 metre), as done in 1961, does not affect the aquifer head or salt-water intrusion along the coastal area of Lake Worth. As a result, no effect in the coastal area would be expected as a result of canal stage lowering in other, interior parts of the study area. Results from the other test runs show that lowering interior canal water levels by as much as 4 feet (1.2 metres) would result in some salt-water intrusion for either land development scheme. Salt-water intrusion is dependent on the location, and amount of water withdrawn, from well fields.

Florida

Analysis of sensitivity of simulated recharge to selected parameters for seven watersheds modeled using the precipitation-runoff modeling system

Recharge is a vital component of the ground-water budget and methods for estimating it range from extremely complex to relatively simple. The most commonly used techniques, however, are limited by the scale of application. One method that can be used to estimate ground-water recharge includes process-based models that compute distributed water budgets on a watershed scale. These models should be evaluated to determine which model parameters are the dominant controls in determining ground-water recharge. Seven existing watershed models from different humid regions of the United States were chosen to analyze the sensitivity of simulated recharge to model parameters. Parameter sensitivities were determined using a nonlinear regression computer program to generate a suite of diagnostic statistics. The statistics identify model parameters that have the greatest effect on simulated ground-water recharge and that compare and contrast the hydrologic system responses to those parameters. Simulated recharge in the Lost River and Big Creek watersheds in Washington State was sensitive to small changes in air temperature. The Hamden watershed model in west-central Minnesota was developed to investigate the relations that wetlands and other landscape features have with runoff processes. Excess soil moisture in the Hamden watershed simulation was preferentially routed to wetlands, instead of to the ground-water system, resulting in little sensitivity of any parameters to recharge. Simulated recharge in the North Fork Pheasant Branch watershed, Wisconsin, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to parameters related to evapotranspiration. Three watersheds were simulated as part of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Parameter sensitivities for the MOPEX watersheds, Amite River, Louisiana and Mississippi, English River, Iowa, and South Branch Potomac River, West Virginia, were similar and most sensitive to small changes in air temperature and a user-defined flow routing parameter. Although the primary objective of this study was to identify, by geographic region, the importance of the parameter value to the simulation of ground-water recharge, the secondary objectives proved valuable for future modeling efforts. The value of a rigorous sensitivity analysis can (1) make the calibration process more efficient, (2) guide additional data collection, (3) identify model limitations, and (4) explain simulated results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

A set of watershed models for four basins (Crab Creek, Rocky Ford Creek, Rocky Coulee, and Lind Coulee), draining into Potholes Reservoir in east-central Washington, was developed as part of a decision support system to aid the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, in managing water resources in east-central Washington State. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collaborative Watershed and River Systems Management Program. A conceptual model of hydrology is outlined for the study area that highlights the significant processes that are important to accurately simulate discharge under a wide range of conditions. The conceptual model identified the following factors as significant for accurate discharge simulations: (1) influence of frozen ground on peak discharge, (2) evaporation and ground-water flow as major pathways in the system, (3) channel losses, and (4) influence of irrigation practices on reducing or increasing discharge. The Modular Modeling System was used to create a watershed model for the four study basins by combining standard Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules with modified modules from a previous study and newly modified modules. The model proved unreliable in simulating peak-flow discharge because the index used to track frozen ground conditions was not reliable. Mean monthly and mean annual discharges were more reliable when simulated. Data from seven USGS streamflow-gaging stations were used to compare with simulated discharge for model calibration and evaluation. Mean annual differences between simulated and observed discharge varied from 1.2 to 13.8 percent for all stations used in the comparisons except one station on a regional ground-water discharge stream. Two thirds of the mean monthly percent differences between the simulated mean and the observed mean discharge for these six stations were between -20 and 240 percent, or in absolute terms, between -0.8 and 11 cubic feet per second. A graphical user interface was developed for the user to easily run the model, make runoff forecasts, and evaluate the results. The models; however, are not reliable for managing short-term operations because of their demonstrated inability to match individual storm peaks and individual monthly discharge values. Short-term forecasting may be improved with real-time monitoring of the extent of frozen ground and the snow-water equivalent in the basin. Despite the models unreliability for short-term runoff forecasts, they are useful in providing long-term, time-series discharge data where no observed data exist.

Scientific Investigations Report

Recharge-area delineation and hydrology, McCraken Springs, Fort Knox Military Reservation, Meade County, Kentucky

McCraken Springs, consisting of three perennial springs - Main, Bat Cave, and Rocky Springs—and several intermittent springs, are used as a source of public water by the Fort Knox Military Reservation in Meade County, Ky. The water supply provided by McCraken Springs is potentially vulnerable to natural and induced stresses on the karst aquifer and to degradation by contaminants introduced by stormwater entering sinkholes and a large sinking stream in the Springs' recharge area. The U.S. Department of the Army is preparing a spring-basin protection plan for McCraken Springs, in accordance with State water-supply regulations and as specified under U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Guidelines for the Wellhead Protection Program (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1991). In order to provide the information needed to prepare the plan, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, conducted a hydrogeologic study of the McCraken Springs in 1997-98. This report presents the results of that investigation. Ground-water-tracer tests and the results of potentiometric-surface mapping were used to identify ground-water basins drained by major perennial springs and to delineate the approximate boundaries of the recharge area for McCraken Springs. Additional hydrologic data were collected to determine the discharge and recharge characteristics of the Springs. Karst aquifers and springs are widely recognized as being more sensitive to degradation to point- and nonpoint-source contamination than most granular and fractured-rock aquifers (Field, 1990). Delineation of the geographic area contributing recharge to a water-supply spring is a principal step in identifying potential sources of ground-water contamination and developing a strategy to ensure the availability and protect the sustainability of the water supply. Conventional methods of aquifer testing and numerical modeling are not sufficient to determine the flow boundaries of ground-water basins in conduit-dominated karst aquifers. Previous studies published by Quinlan and Ewers (1989); Mull and others (1990); Bayless and others (1994); and Schindel and others (1995) demonstrate the utility of ground-water tracer tests, used in combination with potentiometric-surface mapping, to identify flow directions in karst aquifers, and to delineate karst ground-water-basin boundaries.

Kentucky

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 25. Summary of results and baseline and pre-mining ground-water geochemistry, Red River Valley, Taos County, New Mexico, 2001-2005

Active and inactive mine sites are challenging to remediate because of their complexity and scale. Regulations meant to achieve environmental restoration at mine sites are equally challenging to apply for the same reasons. The goal of environmental restoration should be to restore contaminated mine sites, as closely as possible, to pre-mining conditions. Metalliferous mine sites in the Western United States are commonly located in hydrothermally altered and mineralized terrain in which pre-mining concentrations of metals were already anomalously high. Typically, those pre-mining concentrations were not measured, but sometimes they can be reconstructed using scientific inference. Molycorp?s Questa molybdenum mine in the Red River Valley, northern New Mexico, is located near the margin of the Questa caldera in a highly mineralized region. The State of New Mexico requires that ground-water quality standards be met on closure unless it can be shown that potential contaminant concentrations were higher than the standards before mining. No ground water at the mine site had been chemically analyzed before mining. The aim of this investigation, in cooperation with the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED), is to infer the pre-mining ground-water quality by an examination of the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical controls on ground-water quality in a nearby, or proximal, analog site in the Straight Creek drainage basin. Twenty-seven reports contain details of investigations on the geological, hydrological, and geochemical characteristics of the Red River Valley that are summarized in this report. These studies include mapping of surface mineralogy by Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometry (AVIRIS); compilations of historical surface- and ground- water quality data; synoptic/tracer studies with mass loading and temporal water-quality trends of the Red River; reaction-transport modeling of the Red River; environmental geology of the Red River Valley; lake-sediment chemistry; geomorphology and its effect on ground-water flow; geophysical studies on depth to ground-water table and depth to bedrock; bedrock fractures and their potential influence on ground-water flow; leaching studies of scars and waste-rock piles; mineralogy and mineral chemistry and their effect on ground-water quality; debris-flow hazards; hydrology and water balance for the Red River Valley; ground-water geochemistry of selected wells undisturbed by mining in the Red River Valley; and quality assurance and quality control of water analyses. Studies aimed specifically at the Straight Creek natural-analog site include electrical surveys; high-resolution seismic survey; age-dating with tritium/helium; water budget; ground-water hydrology and geochemistry; and comparison of mineralogy and lithology to that of the mine site. The highly mineralized and hydrothermally altered volcanic rocks of the Red River Valley contain several percent pyrite in the quartz-sericite-pyrite (QSP) alteration zone, which weather naturally to acid-sulfate surface and ground waters that discharge to the Red River. Weathering of waste-rock piles containing pyrite also contributes acid water that eventually discharges into the Red River. These acid discharges are neutralized by circumneutral-pH, carbonate-buffered surface and ground waters of the Red River. The buffering capacity of the Red River, however, decreases from the town of Red River to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station near Questa. During short, but intense, storm events, the buffering capacity is exceeded and the river becomes acid from the rapid flushing of acidic materials from natural scar areas. The lithology, mineralogy, elevation, and hydrology of the Straight Creek proximal analog site were found to closely approximate those of the mine site with the exception of the mine site?s Sulphur Gulch catchment. Sulphur Gulch contains three subcatchments?upper Sulphur Gulch, Blind Gulch, and Spring Gulc

New Mexico

Geohydrology and simulated response to ground-water pumpage in Carson Valley, a river-dominated basin in Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

A numerical model was used to simulate the effect of development of the groundwater reservoir in Carson Valley on Carson River outflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels and storage. The basin-fill groundwater reservoir consists of: (1) confined and unconfined sedimentary deposits of Quaternary age that underlie the valley floor, and (2) sedimentary deposits of Tertiary age that are exposed mainly on the east side of the valley. Water levels indicate the presence of two confined aquifer systems: one < 100 ft deep, and the other, generally deeper than 200 ft. The basin-fill reservoir is surrounded by bedrock that transmits recharge to the basin through weathered and fractured zones near the contact between bedrock and valley fill. Estimates were made of the distribution of hydraulic properties of aquifer materials, and of the components of inflow to and outflow from the basin-fill reservoir. Inflow components consisted of the following approximate quantities, in acre-ft/yr: (1) mainstem Carson River flow, 360,000; (2) direct precipitation, 70,000; (3) runoff from perennial and ephemeral streams, 24,000: and (4) subsurface inflow, 38,000. Approximate estimates of outflow components were, in acre-ft/yr; (1) mainstem Carson River flow, 291,000; (2) potential evapotranspiration, 200,000. Both inflow and outflow totaled about 490,000 acre-ft/yr. These flow volumes show that the hydrologic regimen of the basin is dominated by surface water flow of the Carson River. Steady-state and transient calibration of the model provided an unacceptable fit of observed versus simulated groundwater level fluctuations and storage, and surface water outflow from the valley. These values provide a reasonable balance for the simulated steady-state water budget. Simulations show that surface water flow is the ultimate source of about 75% of pumped water for six scenarios of possible future ground-water development. Model simulations indicate that changes from agricultural to urban land uses could decrease the loss of Carson River outflow to pumpage when streamflow is not used for flood irrigation in that area.

California, Nevada