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Methods for determining magnitude and frequency of floods in California, based on data through water year 2006

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in California that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversions have been updated. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for 771 streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in California having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the flood-frequency analysis, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low outliers. Special methods for fitting the distribution were developed for streamgages in the desert region in southeastern California. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins in California that are outside of the southeastern desert region. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 630 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Five hydrologic regions were developed for the area of California outside of the desert region. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area and mean annual precipitation for four of the five regions. In one region, the Sierra Nevada region, the final equations are functions of drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression equations in all five regions range from 42.7 to 161.9 percent. For the desert region of California, an analysis of 33 streamgages was used to develop regional estimates of all three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) of the log-Pearson Type III distribution. The regional estimates were then used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 214.2 to 856.2 percent. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for eight streamgages in California having 10 or more years of data considered to be affected by urbanization. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the urban streamgages by fitting a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Regression analysis could not be used to develop flood-frequency estimation equations for urban streams because of the limited number of sites. Flood-frequency estimates for the eight urban sites were graphically compared to flood-frequency estimates for 630 non-urban sites. The regression equations developed from this study will be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a Web-based application that provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for USGS streamgages and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats can also compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in California.

California

Irrigation-induced contamination of water, sediment, and biota in the western United States-synthesis of data from the National Irrigation Water Quality Program

In October 1985 the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), through the National Irrigation Water Quality Program (NIWQP), began a series of field investigations at 26 areas in the Western United States to determine whether irrigation drainage has had harmful effects on fish, wildlife, and humans or has reduced beneficial uses of water. In 1992 NIWQP initiated the Data Synthesis Project to evaluate data collected during the field investigations. Geologic, climatologic, and hydrologic data were evaluated and water, sediment, and biota from the 26 areas were analyzed to identify commonalities and dominant factors that result in irrigation-induced contamination of water and biota. Data collected for the 26 area investigations have been compiled and merged into a common data base. The structure of the data base is designed to enable assessment of relations between contaminant concentrations in water, sediment, and biota. The data base is available to the scientific community through the World Wide Web at URL http://www.usbr.gov/niwqp. Analysis of the data base for the Data Synthesis included use of summary statistics, factor analysis, and logistic regression. A Geographic Information System was used to store and analyze spatially oriented digital data such as land use, geology and evaporation rates. In the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) study areas, samples of water, bottom sediment, and biota were collected for trace-element and pesticide analysis. Contaminants most commonly associated with irrigation drainage were identified by comparing concentrations in water with established criteria. For surface water, the criteria used were typically chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. Because ground water can discharge to the surface where wildlife can be exposed to it, the criteria used for ground water were both the maximum contaminant levels (MCL's) for drinking water and the chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. Data collected by the NIWQP studies indicated that, in surface water, filtered and unfiltered samples had nearly the same concentrations of arsenic, boron, molybdenum, and selenium for concentrations greater than about 10 micrograms per liter. Therefore, in this concentration range, filtered concentrations can be directly compared to biological-effect levels developed for unfiltered samples. In the range of 1 to 10 micrograms per liter there may be a tendency for unfiltered arsenic concentrations to be greater than filtered concentrations. For selenium, however, the data suggest differences from equality in that range result from analytical imprecision and not a general tendency for unfiltered concentrations to be greater than filtered concentrations. This relation may not be true in lentic, nutrient-rich waters because in such settings algae can bioaccumulate large amounts of selenium and other trace elements. Selenium was the trace element in surface water that most commonly exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life; more than 40 percent of the selenium concentrations in surface-water samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) aquatic-life chronic criterion (5 micrograms per liter). In 12 of the 26 areas at least 25 percent of the surface water-samples had selenium concentrations that either equaled or exceeded the chronic criterion (5 micrograms per liter). More than 28 percent of boron concentrations and almost 17 percent of the molybdenum concentrations exceeded the aquatic life criteria established by the State of California (550 and 19 micrograms per liter, respectively). In ground water, more than 22 percent of the arsenic concentrations and more than 35 percent of the selenium concentrations exceeded the MCL (10 and 50 micrograms per liter, respectively). Few samples of uranium in surface water exceeded a criterion for the protection of aquatic life (300 micrograms per liter), but 44 percent

Professional Paper

USGS develops a drainage-based system to track ANS introductions

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) Program has tracked the distribution of introduced species for more than 20 years. This effort began with foreign fishes in Florida and later expanded to include aquatic nuisance species nationwide. The tracking database contains locational and temporal data for introductions and spread. This data is generally derived from literature, museum collections, state monitoring programs, and reports from professionals at state and federal agencies. Analysis of this data can be helpful in displaying any patterns that may be present in introductions of aquatic nuisance species and developing a management plan to prevent spread. To produce maps and perform analysis, all data are referenced geographically at the finest scale possible (state, county, drainage, waterbody, point). Data reported in the literature range from state or regional lists of introduced species to exact time, date, and location of collections or releases. Often, vague locality reports make it difficult to obtain accurate answers in fine-scale analysis.

Aquatic Nuisance Species Digest

Identifying a base network of federally funded streamgaging stations

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed a preliminary analysis to identify streamgaging stations needed in a base network that would satisfy five primary Federal goals for collecting streamflow information. The five goals are (1) determining streamflow at interstate and international borders and at locations mandated by court decrees, (2) determining the streamflow component of water budgets for the major river basins of the Nation, (3) providing real-time streamflow information to the U.S. National Weather Service to support flood-forecasting activities, (4) providing streamflow information at locations of monitoring stations included in USGS national water-quality networks, and (5) providing streamflow information necessary for regionalization of streamflow characteristics and assessing potential long-term trends in streamflow associated with changes in climate. The analysis was done using a Geographic Information System. USGS headquarters staff made initial selections of stations that satisfied at least one of the five goals, and then staff in each of the 48 USGS district offices reviewed the selections, making suggestions for additions or changes based on detailed local knowledge of the streams in the area. The analysis indicated that 4,242 streamgaging stations are needed in the base network to meet the 5 Federal goals for streamflow information. Of these, 2,692 stations (63.5 percent) are currently operated by the USGS, 277 stations (6.5 percent) are currently operated by other agencies, 865 (20.4 percent) are discontinued USGS stations that need to be reactivated, and 408 (9.6 percent) are locations where new stations are needed. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Conference Paper

Characterization and application of a quantitative DNA marker that discriminates sex in chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

A qualitative male-specific DNA marker (OT-24) was amplified by spPCR (single-primer polymerase chain reaction) from chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) DNA along with several non-sex-linked products. The termini of the male-specific product were sequenced, and a pair of PeR primers were constructed for marker-specific PCR amplification. Dual primer PCR (dpPCR), with the marker-specific primers, amplified a product from both nudes and females. The amount of dpPCR product amplified from males was at least 100-fold greater than that from females. The quantitative difference between males and females was consistent among geographically distinct populations from western U.S. rivers. In addition, DNA sequence analysis indicated that OT-24 was highly conserved among geographically distinct salmon populations. The qualitative spPCR product segregated through several genetic crosses indicating equal sex ratios among progeny. Identification of the male and female juveniles by dpPCR was consistent with the spPCR analysis. There was no tissue specificity observed by spPCR or dpPCR analysis of this marker. A rapid DNA extraction method and dpPCR analysis were used to nonlethally determine sex ratios in wild spring chinook salmon adults, withheld for genetic and behavioral studies, prior to their development of gross sexual differences in their external morphology.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Characterization and application of a quantitative DNA marker that discriminates sex in Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha )

A qualitative male-specific DNA marker (OT-24) was amplified by spPCR (single-primer polymerase chain reaction) from chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) DNA along with several non-sex-linked products. The termini of the male-specific product were sequenced, and a pair of PeR primers were constructed for marker-specific PCR amplification. Dual primer PCR (dpPCR), with the marker-specific primers, amplified a product from both nudes and females. The amount of dpPCR product amplified from males was at least 100-fold greater than that from females. The quantitative difference between males and females was consistent among geographically distinct populations from western U.S. rivers. In addition, DNA sequence analysis indicated that OT-24 was highly conserved among geographically distinct salmon populations. The qualitative spPCR product segregated through several genetic crosses indicating equal sex ratios among progeny. Identification of the male and female juveniles by dpPCR was consistent with the spPCR analysis. There was no tissue specificity observed by spPCR or dpPCR analysis of this marker. A rapid DNA extraction method and dpPCR analysis were used to nonlethally determine sex ratios in wild spring chinook salmon adults, withheld for genetic and behavioral studies, prior to their development of gross sexual differences in their external morphology.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Multi-Resource Analysis—Methodology and synthesis

This document introduces the Multi-Resource Analysis (MRA), a set of products that are being designed to integrate information on multiple natural resources in a region, combine that information with models of resource interrelationships and scenarios of change, and provide meaningful insights on the implications of those changes to people and the resources they value. The MRA builds from and enhances a wide range of existing U.S. Geological Survey assessment products. These enhancements will help natural resource managers better understand the connections among the resources they manage and the changes that might occur due to natural events and human decisions. This knowledge will help them identify solutions to landscape-scale management issues that best meet their objectives. MRA products are developed through a structured process that brings together scientists, decision makers, and other stakeholders to address relevant issues and decisions for a specified geographic region, ensuring that the analysis is directly relevant. This circular introduces the MRA, describes the envisioned process for developing a region-specific MRA, and discusses the various MRA components and products. The MRA process and products are shown through descriptions and examples drawn from two proof-of-concept studies and related work.

Circular

Potential effects of climate change on Emydoidea blandingii (Blanding’s turtle)

Emydoidea blandingii (Holbrook, 1838; Blanding’s turtles) are a species of medium-sized, long-lived, semiaquatic, freshwater turtles with a wide distribution across the northern and eastern United States and southern Canada. They have an annual activity cycle consisting of late autumn and winter overwintering and spring emergence, spring movement and foraging, spring and summer nesting, and summer and autumn foraging and nonnesting movement. In response to changes in average and extreme temperatures, Blanding’s turtles are likely to experience increased physiological stress and reduced reproductive success. Variability in precipitation may affect the availability of freshwater habitats for overwintering, shelter, and feeding; however, projected changes in precipitation vary widely. This analysis presents anticipated climate conditions and effects on the species; the complex life history and expansive geographic range of this species require additional analysis at local scales.

Open-File Report

Integrating a geographic information system, a scientific visualization system, and a precipitation model

Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.Investigating natural, potential, and human-induced impacts on hydrologic systems commonly requires complex modeling with overlapping data requirements, plus massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrologic studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modeling and spatial analysis with a flexible, intuitive display. Integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and scientific visualization systems (SVS) provides such an infrastructure. This paper describes an integrated system consisting of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS, and an SVS. The results of this study provide a basis for improving the understanding of hydro-climatic processes in mountainous regions. An additional benefit of the integrated system, the value of which is often underestimated, is the improved ability to communicate model results, leading to a broader understanding of the model assumptions, sensitivities, and conclusions at a management level.

Water Resources Bulletin

Variability of streamflow and precipitation in Washington

Patterns of variation in monthly records of 55 streamflow stations and 38 precipitation stations were evaluated using chronologies of cumulative departure of monthly values from mean-monthly values. The cumulative departures for each station were rescaled (standardized) by dividng them by the standard deviation of the annual values for that station. The degree of similarity between the chronologies for each pair of either streamflow or precipitation stations was measured by the coefficient of correlation between them. Matrices of these coefficients of correlation were evaluated using cluster analysis to identify regions of similarity among the chronologies. The cluster analysis of the streamflow-station matrix defined geographic regions of similarity in south- western, northwestern, and northeastern Washington. The cluster analysis of the precipitation-station matrix defined two regions of similarity--western and eastern Washington-- and indicated that there is a tendency for persistent periods of above-average precipitation in western Washington to correspond with persistent periods of below-average precipitation in eastern Washington, and conversely. A water- resource availability index was developed that provides a quantitative interpretation of present conditions in the context of historical records of streamflow and precipitation. The index value for a given month and year is calculated as the summation of time-weighted, rescaled, monthly departures during the preceding 3-year period. Methods were described for the use of chronologies of cumulative departure (1) in estimating monthly streamflow or precipitation values for ungaged sites from monthly values for gaged sites, and (2) in examining the adequacy of the sizes of existing or proposed reservoirs.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Natural Hazards Review

Using regional scale flow–ecology modeling to identify catchments where fish assemblages are most vulnerable to changes in water availability

Streamflow is essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Changes in climate, land use and water use practices may alter water availability. Understanding the potential effect of these changes on aquatic ecosystems is critical for long-term water management to maintain a balance between water for human consumption and ecosystem needs. Fish species data and streamflow estimates from a rainfall-runoff and flow routing model were used to develop boosted regression tree models to predict the relationship between streamflow and fish species richness (FSR) under plausible scenarios of (1) water withdrawal, (2) climate change and (3) increases in impervious surfaces in the Piedmont ecoregion of North Carolina, U.S.A. Maximum monthly flow, the fraction of total flow originating from impervious surface runoff, coefficient of monthly streamflow variability, and the specific river basin accounted for 50% of the variability in FSR. This model was used to predict FSR values for all twelve-digit Hydrological Unit Code catchments (HUC-12s) in the North Carolina Piedmont under current flow conditions and under water withdrawal, climate change and impervious surface scenarios. Flow–ecology modeling results indicate that predicted FSR declined significantly with increased water withdrawals. However, the magnitude of decline varied geographically. A “hot-spot” analysis was conducted based on predicted changes in FSR under each scenario to understand which HUC-12s were most likely to be affected by changes in water withdrawals, climate and impervious surfaces. Under the 20% withdrawal increase scenario, 413 of 886 (47%) HUC-12s in the study area were predicted to lose one or more species. HUC-12s in the Broad, Catawba, Yadkin and Cape Fear river basins were most susceptible to species loss. These findings may help decision making efforts by identifying catchments most vulnerable to changing water availability. Additionally, FSR-discharge modeling results can assist resource agencies, water managers and stakeholders in assessing the effect of water withdrawals in catchments to better support the protection and long-term conservation of species.

North Carolina

Middle and late Miocene marine mammal assemblages from the Monterey Formation of Orange County, California

This study provides new stratigraphic data and identifications for fossil marine mammals from the Monterey Formation in the Capistrano syncline, Orange County, California, showing that there are two distinct marine mammal assemblages. Until now, marine mammals from the Monterey Formation of Orange County have been considered to represent a single assemblage that is 13.0–10.0 Ma in age. By combining data from diatoms with the geographic positions of sites, faunal analysis, and data from the literature, we can assign 59 sites to three main levels: the lower part (ca. 16–13 Ma), the middle part (ca. 13–10 Ma), and the upper part (ca. 10–8 Ma). We assigned 308 marine mammal specimens to 38 taxa, resulting in 97 occurrences (unique record of a taxon for a given site). Of the 38 taxa we identified within the study area, 15 taxa are restricted to the lower part of the Monterey Formation, 15 are restricted to the upper part of the Monterey Formation, eight were found in both, and none has yet been reported from the middle (possibly condensed) section. Six of the eight taxa that occur in both the lower and upper parts of the Monterey Formation are higher-level taxa, which accounts for their broad temporal range. The recognition of two distinct marine mammal assemblages in the Monterey Formation of Orange County is an important step toward a better-calibrated sequence of faunal evolution in the region while improving the utility of marine mammals for regional biostratigraphy.

California

Advancing barrier island habitat mapping using landscape position information

Barrier islands are dynamic ecosystems that change gradually from coastal processes, including currents and tides, and rapidly from episodic events, such as storms. These islands provide many important ecosystem services, including storm protection and erosion control to the mainland, habitat for fish and wildlife, and tourism. Habitat maps, developed by scientists, provide a critical tool for monitoring changes to these dynamic ecosystems. Barrier island monitoring often requires custom habitat maps due to several factors, including island size and the classification of unique geomorphology-based habitats, such as beach, dune, and barrier flats. In this study, we reviewed barrier-island-specific habitat mapping efforts and highlighted common habitat class types, source data, and mapping approaches. We also developed a framework for mapping geomorphology-based barrier island habitats using a rule-based, geographic object-based image analysis approach, which included the use of field data, tide data, high-resolution orthophotography, and lidar data. This framework integrates several barrier island mapping advancements with regard to the use of landscape position information for automated dune extraction and the use of Monte Carlo analyses for the treatment of elevation uncertainty for elevation-dependent habitats. Specifically, we used the uncertainty analyses to refine automated dune delineation based on elevation relative to extreme storm water levels and to increase the accuracy of intertidal and supratidal/upland habitat delineation. We found that dune extraction results were enhanced when elevation relative to storm water levels and visual interpretation were also applied. This framework could also be applied to beach–dune systems found along a mainland.

Alabama

Data resources for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Integrated Assessment (IA)

The data contained in this report were compiled, modified, and analyzed for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Integrated Assessment (IA). The WLCI is a long-term science based effort to assess and enhance aquatic and terrestrial habitats at a landscape scale in southwest Wyoming while facilitating responsible energy development through local collaboration and partnerships. The IA is an integrated synthesis and analysis of WLCI resource values based on best available data and information collected from multiple agencies and organizations. It is a support tool for landscape-scale conservation planning and evaluation, and a data and analysis resource that can be used for addressing specific management questions. The IA analysis was conducted using a Geographic Information System in a raster (that is, a grid) environment using a cell size of 30 meters. To facilitate the interpretation of the data in a regional context, mean values were summarized and displayed at the subwatershed unit (WLCI subwatersheds were subset from the National Hydrography Dataset, Hydrologic Unit Code 12/Level 6). A dynamic mapping platform, accessed via the WLCI webpage at http://www.wlci.gov is used to display the mapped information, and to access underlying resource values that were combined to produce the final mapped results. The raster data used in the IA are provided here for use by interested parties to conduct additional analyses and can be accessed via the WLCI webpage. This series contains 74 spatial data sets: WLCI subwatersheds (vector) and 73 geotiffs (raster) that are segregated into the major categories of Multicriteria Index (including Resource Index and Condition), Change Agents, and Future Change. The Total Multicriteria Index is composed of the Aquatic Multicriteria Index and the Terrestrial Multicriteria Index. The Aquatic Multicriteria Index is composed of the Aquatic Resource Index and the Aquatic Condition. The Aquatic Resource Index is composed of the following components: Groundwater, Special Management Areas, and Priority Areas. The Aquatic Condition is composed of the following components: Focal Species, Species of Concern, Focal Ecosystems, and Proper Functioning Condition. The Terrestrial Multicriteria Index is composed of the Terrestrial Resource Index and the Terrestrial Condition. The Terrestrial Resource Index is composed of the following components: Special Management Areas, Agriculture, and Priority Areas. The Terrestrial Condition is composed of the following components: Focal Species, Big Game, Species of Concern, Rare Plants, and Focal Ecosystems. The Change Agents are composed the following components: Roads, Energy, Mines, and Urban. The Future Change is composed of the following components: Oil-Gas-Coal, Wind, Minerals, Climate-Temperature, Invasive Species, and Urban.

Wyoming