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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

Weakening of peridotite sheared at hydrothermal conditions

We conducted triaxial friction tests at hydrothermal conditions (25°C–350°C) on gouges of peridotite and its principal mineral constituents olivine and orthopyroxene. Pore-fluid chemistry was varied by the use of peridotite, granite, or quartzite driving blocks (representing wall rock) housing the gouge layer. Samples sheared at slow rates initially strengthen to a peak value, and then weaken toward a residual strength. The transition is accompanied by a change from velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening behavior marked by a series of small stress drops. The extent of weakening varies with the ultramafic mineralogy and with the chemical environment established by the driving block lithology. The strengths of olivine and olivine-rich peridotite gouges decrease substantially (to μ ∼ 0.25–0.30), and that of orthopyroxene to a lesser extent, at temperatures ≥200°C when sheared between crustal driving blocks. Less weakening is observed in the peridotite-block experiments; the minimum strength of the peridotite gouges ( μ ∼ 0.5) occurs at 250°C, the temperature at which olivine hydration rates are near their maximum in ultramafic rocks. The strength reductions in all experiments are attributed to solution-transfer (pressure solution) processes that come to predominate over cataclastic mechanisms during shear. The lower pH of fluids in contact with silica-saturated crustal rocks enhances the weakening of olivine-rich gouges. In these short-duration experiments, secondary phyllosilicate mineral growth was of a limited extent and varied with gouge and wall-rock mineralogy and with temperature. Over geologic time spans, however, the alteration assemblages will assume an increasingly important role in fault-zone behavior.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Three-dimensional electrical resistivity characterization of Mountain Pass, California and surrounding region

The Sulphide Queen carbonatite deposit at Mountain Pass in southeast California is a world class rare earth element (REE) resource. This study images electrical resistivity structure of the REE deposit and surrounding area to characterize resources under cover. An east-west elongated grid (35 × 15 km) of 65 wideband magnetotelluric stations spanning from eastern Shadow Valley to eastern Ivanpah Valley were collected and modeled in three-dimensions (3-D). Gravity, aeromagnetic, and geologic data are used to inform interpretation of structures in the resistivity model, including the following observations. Shadow Valley is filled with conductive sediment that locally dips southward to a depth of 1 km. The Kingston Range-Halloran Hills detachment fault dips westward at ∼15 degrees. The REE deposit is a moderate low resistivity zone dipping southwest to a possible depth of ∼1 km, and is bounded by the North and South faults and bisected by the Middle fault. Ivanpah Dry Lake is underlain by a north striking southward dipping sedimentary basin. Two possible zones of mineralization are observed in Ivanpah Valley, one along the western edge of Ivanpah Dry Lake and one on the western edge of valley along a new inferred fault. The brittle-ductile transition is imaged at ∼10 km below mean sea level. No deep electrically conductive structures are imaged to be related to the REE deposit likely due to the complex geologic history of the Mojave terrane. Future studies should regional target Proterozoic rocks and search within for geophysical signatures similar to Mountain Pass.

California

Interaction between climate and tectonics in the northern Lesser Antilles inferred from the last interglacial shoreline on Barbuda island

In the context of increasing evidence of plate interface coupling variability in subduction zones, there is a need to extend the short time window given by instrumental data and to gather data over multiple time and spatial scales. We hence investigated the long-term topography on Barbuda island, located in the northern part of the Lesser Antilles, west of the Caribbean subduction zone. Following pioneering work using a set of marine terraces on the eastern side of the island, we performed the first U-Th dating on 10 corals in growth position from the lowest terrace, for which the highest relative sea-level (RSL) indicator is found at 9 ± 1 m above the mean sea level. We find that this terrace corresponds to the Last Interglacial (LIG) (ages between 122.8 ± 0.3 ka and 128.1 ± 0.3 ka) and we estimate a paleo RSL of 7 ± 2 m above the current mean sea level. The present elevation of the LIG shoreline on Barbuda might imply tectonics as an additional mechanism to eustatic sea level, mantle dynamic topography and glacial isostatic adjustment. East-west morphological asymmetry of Barbuda and difference in LIG shoreline elevation between Barbuda and Antigua suggest a regional tectonic process. As with the proposed westward tilting from the forearc to the volcanic arc of the Guadeloupe archipelago, vertical deformation on Barbuda could be related to plate-scale subduction processes. Long-term uplift of Barbuda might be related to the accumulation of residual coseismic deformation not fully recovered by interseismic subsidence and the corresponding seismogenic segment would extend below the Moho.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Explosive activity on Kilauea’s Lower East Rift Zone fueled by a volatile-rich, dacitic melt

Magmas with matrix glass compositions ranging from basalt to dacite erupted from a series of 24 fissures in the first two weeks of the 2018 Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano. Eruption styles ranged from low spattering and fountaining to strombolian activity. Major element trajectories in matrix glasses and melt inclusions hosted by olivine, pyroxene and plagioclase are consistent with variable amounts of fractional crystallization, with incompatible elements (e.g., Cl, F, H 2 O) becoming enriched by 4-5 times as melt MgO contents evolve from 6 to 0.5 wt%. The high viscosity and high H 2 O contents (∼2 wt%) of the dacitic melts erupting at Fissure 17 account for the explosive Strombolian behavior exhibited by this fissure, in contrast to the low fountaining and spattering observed at fissures erupting basaltic to basaltic-andesite melts. Saturation pressures calculated from melt inclusions CO 2 -H 2 O contents indicate that the magma reservoir(s) supplying these fissures was located at ∼2-3 km depth, which is in agreement with the depth of a dacitic magma body intercepted during drilling in 2005 (∼2.5 km) and a seismically-imaged low Vp/Vs anomaly (∼2 km depth). Nb/Y ratios in erupted products are similar to lavas erupted between 1955-1960, indicating that melts were stored and underwent variable amounts of crystallization in the LERZ for >60 years before being remobilized by a dike intrusion in 2018. We demonstrate that extensive fractional crystallization generates viscous and volatile-rich magma with potential for hazardous explosive eruptions, which may be lurking undetected at many ocean island volcanoes.

Hawaii

Velocity-porosity relations in carbonate and siliciclastic subduction zone input materials

The mechanical, physical, and frictional properties of incoming materials play an important role in subduction zone structure and slip behavior because these properties influence the strength of the accretionary wedge and megathrust plate boundary faults. Incoming sediment sections often show an increase in compressional wave speed (Vp) and a decrease in porosity with depth due to consolidation. These relations allow seismic-velocity models to be used to elucidate properties and conditions at depth. However, variations in these properties are controlled by lithology and composition as well as cementation and diagenesis. We present an analysis of shipboard measurements of Vp and porosity on incoming sediment cores from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) expeditions at the Hikurangi Margin, Nankai Trough, Aleutian Trench, Middle America Trench, and Sunda Trench. Porosity for these samples ranges from 5% to 85% and Vp ranges from 1.5 to 6 km/s. Vp-porosity relations developed by Erikson & Jarrad (1998), https://doi.org/10.1029/98JB02128 and Hoffman & Tobin (2004) https://10.2973/odp.proc.sr.190196.355.2004, with a critical porosity of ∼30%, can represent carbonate-poor (<50 wt% CaCO3), mainly hemipelagic, incoming sediment regardless of the margin. But these relations tend to underestimate porosity in incoming sediments with carbonate content greater than 50 wt%, which appear to have a critical porosity of between 45% and 50%. This discrepancy will lead to inaccuracy in estimates of fluid budget and overpressure in subduction zones. The velocity-porosity relation in carbonate sediments is non-unique due to the complexity that results from the greater susceptibility of carbonate rocks to diagenetic processes.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Marine paleoseismic evidence for seismic and aseismic slip along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system in northern San Pablo Bay

Distinguishing between seismic and aseismic fault slip in the geologic record is difficult, yet fundamental to estimating the seismic potential of faults and the likelihood of multi-fault ruptures. We integrated chirp sub-bottom imaging with targeted cross-fault coring and core analyses of sedimentary proxy data to characterize vertical deformation and slip behavior within an extensional fault bend along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system in northern San Pablo Bay. We identified and traced four key seismic horizons (R1–R4), all younger than approximately 1400 CE, that cross the fault and extend throughout the basin. A stratigraphic age model was developed using detailed down-core radiocarbon and radioisotope dating combined with measurements of anthropogenic metal concentrations. The onset of hydraulic mining within the Sierra Nevada in 1852 CE left a clear geochemical and magnetic signature within core samples. This key time horizon was used to calculate a local reservoir correction and reduce uncertainty in radiocarbon age calibration and models. Vertical fault offset of strata younger than the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake on the Hayward fault in 1868 CE suggest near-surface vertical creep is occurring along the fault in northern San Pablo Bay at a rate of approximately 0.4 mm/yr. In addition, we present evidence of at least one and possibly two coseismic events associated with growth strata above horizons R1 and R2, with median event ages estimated to be 1400 CE and 1800 CE, respectively. The timing of both these events overlaps with paleoseismic events on adjacent fault sections, suggesting the possibility of multi-fault rupture.

California

A physical interpretation of asymmetric growth and decay of the geomagnetic dipole moment

Observations of relative paleointensity reveal several forms of asymmetry in the time dependence of the virtual axial dipole moment (VADM). Slow decline of the VADM into a reversal is often followed by a more rapid rise back to a quasi-steady state. Asymmetry is also observed in trends of VADM during times of stable polarity. Trends of increasing VADM over time intervals of a few 10s of kyr are more intense and less frequent than decreasing trends. We examine the origin of this behavior using stochastic models. The usual (Langevin) model can account for asymmetries during reversals, but it cannot reproduce the observed asymmetry in trends during stable polarity. Better agreement is achieved with a different class of stochastic models in which the dipole is generated by a series of impulsive events in time. The timing of each event occurs randomly as a Poisson process and the amplitude is also randomly distributed. Predicted trends replicate the observed asymmetry when the generation events are large and the recurrence time is long (typically longer than 3 kyr). Large and infrequent generation events argue against dipole generation by small-scale turbulent flow. Instead, the observations favor a mechanism that relies on expulsion of poloidal magnetic field from the core.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Mega-depressions on the Cocos Ridge: Links between volcanism, faults, hydrothermal circulation, and dissolution

High-resolution bathymetry and 3D seismic data along the Cocos Ridge reveal a 245 km 2 field of ∼1 to 4 km in diameter seafloor depressions. The seafloor depressions are part of a two-tiered honeycomb pattern. The lower-tier depressions have steep faults that truncate strata with chaotic internal reflections consistent with sediment collapse into the depression. These extend into a lens shaped interval just above igneous basement. Overlying these depressions is a second broader set with rough seafloor morphology with gently dipping boundaries defined by pinch-out stratigraphic patterns. Drilling results indicate that the lens-shaped zones that host the deeper depressions represent anomalous regions of high porosity, low velocity, and low density within calcareous rich sediment. Analysis of nannofossils from IODP Site U1414 suggests the collapse structures formed during the late Miocene, whereas the younger shallower depressions likely formed between the early Pliocene and the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary. Geochemical and petrological analysis at Site U1414 suggests that hydrothermal circulation during the late Miocene led to carbonate dissolution and collapse. Following collapse, focused fluid-flow and bottom current scouring resulted in formation of the overlying set of depressions and a honeycomb seafloor morphology. Similar sets of depressions along the Carnegie Ridge to the south support the hypothesis that two-tiered depressions formed in response to processes that occurred broadly across the Panama Basin between the late Miocene and the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition. Geochemical results at Site U1414, combined with geophysical data, suggest this two-tiered system of depressions currently guides ongoing fluid outflow.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Equilibrated gas and carbonate standard-derived dual (Δ47 and Δ48) clumped isotope values

Carbonate clumped isotope geochemistry has primarily focused on mass spectrometric determination of m/z 47 CO 2 for geothermometry, but theoretical calculations and recent experiments indicate paired analysis of the m/z 47 ( 13 C 18 O 16 O) and m/z 48 ( 12 C 18 O 18 O) isotopologues (referred to as Δ 47 and Δ 48 ) can be used to study non-equilibrium isotope fractionations and refine temperature estimates. We utilize 5,448 Δ 47 and 3,400 Δ 48 replicate measurements of carbonate samples and standards, and 183 Δ 47 and 195 Δ 48 replicate measurements of gas standards from 2015 to 2021 from a multi-year and multi-instrument data set to constrain Δ 47 and Δ 48 values for 27 samples and standards, including Devils Hole cave calcite, and study equilibrium Δ 47 -Δ 48 , Δ 47 -temperature, and Δ 48 -temperature relationships. We compare results to previously published findings and calculate equilibrium regressions based on data from multiple laboratories. We report acid digestion fractionation factors, Δ* 63-47 and Δ* 64-48 , and account for their dependence on the initial clumped isotope values of the mineral.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Chemical geodynamics insights from a machine learning approach

The radiogenic isotope heterogeneity of oceanic basalts is often assessed using 2D isotope ratio diagrams. But because the underlying data are at least six dimensional ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd, 176 Hf/ 177 Hf, and 208,207,206 Pb/ 204 Pb), it is important to examine isotopic affinities in multi-dimensional data space. Here, we apply t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), a multi-variate statistical data analysis technique, to a recent compilation of radiogenic isotope data of mid ocean ridge (MORB) and ocean island basalts (OIB). The t-SNE results show that the apparent overlap of MORB-OIB data trends in 2-3D isotope ratios diagrams does not exist in multi-dimensional isotope data space, revealing that there is no discrete “component” that is common to most MORB-OIB mantle sources on a global scale. Rather, MORB-OIB sample stochastically distributed small-scale isotopic heterogeneities. Yet, oceanic basalts with the same isotopic affinity, as identified by t-SNE, delineate several globally distributed regional domains. In the regional geodynamic context, the isotopic affinity of MORB and OIB is caused by capturing of actively upwelling mantle by adjacent ridges, and thus melting of mantle with similar origin in on, near, and off-ridge settings. Moreover, within a given isotopic domain, subsidiary upwellings rising from a common deep mantle root often feed OIB volcanism over large surface areas. Overall, the t-SNE results define a fundamentally new basis for relating isotopic variations in oceanic basalts to mantle geodynamics, and may launch a 21st century era of “chemical geodynamics.”

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Breaking up is hard to do: Magmatism during oceanic arc breakup, subduction reversal, and cessation

The formerly continuous Vitiaz Arc broke into its Vanuatu and Fijian portions during a reversal of subduction polarity in the Miocene. Basaltic volcanism in Fiji that accompanied the breakup ranged from shoshonitic to low-K and boninitic with increasing distance from the broken edge of the arc that, presumably, marks the broken edge of the slab. The Sr-Pb-Nd isotope ratios of the slab-derived component in the breakup basalts most closely match those of the isotopically most depleted part of the Samoan seamount chain on the Pacific Plate that was adjacent to the site of breakup at 4-8 Ma, and differ from those of subsequent basalts in spreading segments of the surrounding backarc North Fiji and Lau Basins. Subduction of the Samoan Chain along the Vitiaz Trench Lineament may have controlled the limit of polarity reversal and, hence, where the double saloon doors (Martin, 2013) opened. Prior to breakup, Fijian volcanics were more similar isotopically to the Louisville Seamount Chain.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Detailed 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of the Loyalty and Three Kings Ridges clarifies the extent and sequential development of Eocene to Miocene southwest Pacific remnant volcanic arcs

The 2015 VESPA voyage (Volcanic Evolution of South Pacific Arcs) was a seismic and rock dredging expedition to the Loyalty and Three Kings Ridges and South Fiji Basin. In this paper we present 33 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, 22 micropaleontological, and two U/Pb ages for igneous and sedimentary rocks from 33 dredge sites in this little-studied part of the southwest Pacific Ocean. Igneous rocks include basalts, dolerites, basaltic andesites, trachyandesites, and a granite. Successful Ar/Ar dating of altered and/or low-K basalts was achieved through careful sample selection and processing, detailed petrographic and element mapping of groundmass, and incremental heating experiments on both phenocryst and groundmass separates to interpret the complex spectra produced by samples having multiple K reservoirs. The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of most of the sampled lavas, irrespective of composition, are latest Oligocene to earliest Miocene (25–22 Ma); two are Eocene (39–36 Ma). The granite has a U/Pb zircon age of 23.6 ± 0.3 Ma. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar lava ages are corroborated by microfossil ages from associated sedimentary rocks. The VESPA lavas are part of a >3,000 km long disrupted belt of Eocene to Miocene subduction-related volcanic rocks. The belt includes arc rocks in Northland New Zealand, Northland Plateau, Three Kings Ridge, and Loyalty Ridge and, speculatively, D’Entrecasteaux Ridge. This belt is the product of superimposed Eocene and Oligocene-Miocene remnant volcanic arcs that were stranded along and near the edge of Zealandia while still-active arc belts migrated east with the Pacific trench.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Dynamics of the December 2020 ash-poor plume formed by lava-water interaction at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

On 20 December 2020, after more than 2 years of quiescence at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, renewed volcanic activity in the summit crater caused boiling of the water lake over a period of ∼90 min. The resulting water-rich, electrified plume rose to 11–13 km above sea level, which is among the highest plumes on record for Kīlauea. Although conventional models would infer a high mass flux from explosive magma-water interaction, the plume was not associated with an infrasound signal indicative of “explosive” activity, nor did it produce a measurable ash-fall deposit. We use multisensor data to characterize lava-water interaction and plume generation during this opening phase of the 2020–21 eruption. Satellite, weather radar, and eyewitness observations revealed that the plume was rich in water vapor and hydrometeors but transported less ash than expected from its maximum height. Volcanic lightning flashes detected by ground-based cameras were confined to freezing altitudes of the upper cloud, suggesting that the ice formation drove the electrification of this plume. The low acoustic energy from lava-water interaction points to a weakly explosive style of hydrovolcanism. Heat transfer calculations show that the lava to water heat flux was sufficient to boil the lake within 90 min. Limited mixing of lava and water inhibited major steam explosions and fine fragmentation. Results from one-dimensional plume modeling suggest that the models may underpredict plume height due to overestimation of crosswind air-entrainment. Our findings shed light on an unusual style of volcanism in which weakly explosive lava-water interaction generated an outsized plume.

Hawaii

Rift basins and intraplate earthquakes: New high-resolution aeromagnetic data provide insights into buried structures of the Charleston, South Carolina seismic zone

The delineation of faults that pose seismic risk in intraplate seismic zones and the mapping of features associated with failed rift basins can help our understanding of links between the two. We use new high-resolution aeromagnetic data, previous borehole sample information, and reprocessed seismic reflection profiles to image subsurface structures and evaluate recent fault activity within the Charleston seismic zone, the associated Mesozoic South Georgia rift basin, and surrounds. The new aeromagnetic data provide an unprecedented view of buried basement structures. NE- and NW-trending lineaments of various lengths throughout the survey area are interpreted as Paleozoic orogenic structures and Mesozoic dikes, respectively. Within the rift basin, 15- to 20-km long ESE-trending lineaments are associated with faults in pre-Cretaceous strata of the reflection data and are interpreted as Mesozoic rift structures. Various intersections and terminations of interpreted faults suggest rift-related reactivation of Paleozoic faults and corresponding inheritance for Mesozoic structures. The reflection data show that several Paleozoic and Mesozoic faults are associated with deformation in Cretaceous and younger sediments, suggesting reactivation in the more recent passive margin setting. Two of these faults, one NE-striking and one ESE-striking, are coincident with surficial landforms, suggesting Quaternary slip; the ESE-striking fault is also well-aligned with a plan-view offset in modern seismicity. A favorable orientation for reverse motion on ESE-striking Mesozoic faults, a possible sub-basin, and potentially weakened lithosphere are failed rift basin features that may influence intraplate seismicity within the Charleston seismic zone.

South Carolina

Volcanic and tectonic sources of seismicity near the Tanaga Volcanic Cluster, Alaska

Tanaga Island in the Central Aleutian Islands includes four stratovolcanoes: Sajaka, Tanaga, and East Tanaga in the northwest, and Takawangha in the central part of the island. Of these volcanoes, only Tanaga has a confirmed record of historical eruptive activity. We use double-difference methods to relocate Tanaga Island earthquakes from the period 2003–2017 to gain insight into volcanic and tectonic activity in the region. High precision relative relocations show subsurface structures in the Tanaga region related to volcanism and crustal tectonics. In 2005, a swarm of ∼600 volcano-tectonic events located below the NW portion of the island culminated with an episode of volcanic tremor. Although there was no known eruption associated with this swarm, we suggest that this activity is associated with fluids beneath Takawangha volcano. Overall, relatively little seismicity appears to be associated with volcanism: of 5,680 earthquakes relocated in this study, only ∼700 took place within 10 km of the volcanoes themselves. Other regions appear to experience primarily, if not exclusively, tectonic seismicity. Two regions on Tanaga Island became seismically active following a M6.6 tectonic earthquake east of the island on 2 May 2008, suggesting the triggering of tectonic earthquakes by the M6.6. Seismic activity recorded offshore and below the southern part of the island is interpreted as due to the clockwise rotation of the Delarof Block in the forearc, and bookshelf faulting along the volcanic arc. This suggests a complex pattern of earthquake hypocenters governed by both volcanic and tectonic processes surrounding Tanaga and Takawangha volcanoes.

Alaska

The relation between decadal droughts and eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

In the past century, most eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park's Norris Geyser Basin were mainly clustered in three episodes: 1961–1969, 1982–1984, and ongoing since 2018. These eruptive episodes resulted in extensive disturbance to surrounding trees. To characterize tree response over time as an indicator of geyser activity adjustments to climate variability, aerial and ground images were analyzed to document changes in tree coverage around the geyser since 1954. Radiocarbon dating of silicified tree remnants from within 14 m of the geyser vent was used to examine geyser response to possible variations in decadal to centennial precipitation patterns. We searched for atypical or absent growth rings in cores from live trees in years associated with large geyser eruptions. Photographs indicate that active eruptive phases have adversely affected trees up to 30 m from the vent, primarily in the dominant downwind direction. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the geyser formed before 1878, in contrast to the birthdate reported in historical documents. Further, the ages of the silicified trees cluster within three episodes that are temporally correlated with periods of relative drought in the Yellowstone region during the 15th–17th centuries. The discontinuous growth of trees around the geyser suggests that changes in eruptive patterns occur in response to decadal to multidecadal droughts. This inference is supported by the lack of silicified specimens with more than 20 annual rings and by the existence of atypical or missing rings in live trees during periods of extended geyser activity.

Wyoming

Neogene hydrothermal Fe- and Mn-oxide mineralization of Paleozoic continental rocks, Amerasia Basin, Arctic Ocean

Rocks dredged from water depths of 1,605, 2,500, 3,300, and 3,400 m in the Arctic Ocean included Paleozoic continental rocks pervasively mineralized during the Neogene by hydrothermal Fe and Mn oxides. Samples were recovered in three dredge hauls from the Chukchi Borderland and one from Mendeleev Ridge north of Alaska and eastern Siberia, respectively. Many of the rocks were so pervasively altered that the protolith could not be identified, while others had volcanic, plutonic, and metamorphic protoliths. The mineralized rocks were cemented and partly to wholly replaced by the hydrothermal oxides. The Amerasia Basin, where the Chukchi Borderland and Mendeleev Ridge occur, supports a series of faults and fractures that serve as major zones of crustal weakness. We propose that the stratabound hydrothermal deposits formed through the flux of hydrothermal fluids along Paleozoic and Mesozoic faults related to block faulting along a rifted margin during minor episodes of Neogene tectonism and were later exposed at the seafloor through slumping or other gravity processes. Tectonically driven hydrothermal circulation most likely facilitated the pervasive mineralization along fault surfaces via frictional heating, hydrofracturing brecciation, and low- to moderate temperature Fe- and Mn-rich hydrothermal fluids, which mineralized the crushed, altered, and brecciated rocks.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Probabilistic source classification of large tephra producing eruptions using supervised machine learning: An example from the Alaska-Aleutian arc

Alaska contains over 130 volcanoes and volcanic fields that have been active within the last 2 million years. Of these, roughly 90 have erupted during the Holocene, with many characterized by at least one large explosive eruption. These large tephra-producing eruptions (LTPEs) generate orders of magnitude more erupted material than a “typical” arc explosive eruption and distribute ash thousands of kilometers from their source. Because LTPEs occur infrequently, and the proximal explosive deposit record in Alaska is generally limited to the Holocene, we require a method that links distal deposits to a source volcano where the correlative proximal deposits from that eruption are no longer preserved. We present a model that accurately and confidently identifies LTPE volcanic sources in the Alaska-Aleutian arc using only in situ geochemistry. The model is a voting ensemble classifier comprised of six conceptually different machine learning algorithms trained on proximal tephra deposits that have had their source positively identified. We show that incompatible trace element ratios (e.g., Nb/U, Th/La, Rb/Sm) help produce a feature space that contains significantly more variance than one produced by major element concentrations, ultimately creating a model that can achieve high accuracy, precision, and recall on predicted volcanic sources, regardless of the perceived 2D data distribution (i.e., bimodal, uniform, normal) or composition (i.e., andesite, trachyte, rhyolite) of that source. Finally, we apply our model to unidentified distal marine tephra deposits in the region to better understand explosive volcanism in the Alaska-Aleutian arc, specifically its pre-Holocene spatiotemporal distribution.

Alaska