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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Current and future sinkhole susceptibility in karst and pseudokarst areas of the conterminous United States

Sinkholes in karst and pseudokarst regions threaten infrastructure, property, and lives. We mapped closed depressions in karst and pseudokarst regions of the conterminous United States (U.S.) from 10-m-resolution elevation data using high-performance computing, and then created a heuristic additive model of sinkhole susceptibility that also included nationally consistent data for factors related to geology, soils, precipitation extremes, and development. Maps identify potential sinkhole hotspots based on current conditions and projections for 50 years into the future (the years 2070–2079) based on climate change and urban development scenarios. Areas characterized as having either high or very high sinkhole susceptibility contain 94%–99% of known or probable sinkhole locations from three U.S. state databases. States and counties with the highest amounts and percentages of land in zones of highest sinkhole susceptibility are identified. Projected changes in extreme precipitation and development did not substantially change current hotspots of highest sinkhole susceptibility. Results provide a uniform index of sinkhole potential that can support national planning, instead of existing assessments produced through various methods within individual states or smaller areas.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2013

Watering the forest for the trees: An emerging priority for managing water in forest landscapes

Widespread threats to forests resulting from drought stress are prompting a re-evaluation of priorities for water management on forest lands. In contrast to the widely held view that forest management should emphasize providing water for downstream uses, we argue that maintaining forest health in the context of a changing climate may require focusing on the forests themselves and on strategies to reduce their vulnerability to increasing water stress. Management strategies would need to be tailored to specific landscapes but could include thinning, planting and selecting for drought-tolerant species, irrigating, and making more water available to plants for transpiration. Hydrologic modeling reveals that specific management actions could reduce tree mortality due to drought stress. Adopting water conservation for vegetation as a priority for managing water on forested lands would represent a fundamental change in perspective and potentially involve trade-offs with other downstream uses of water.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS1999

A seismic-reflection investigation of gas hydrates and sea-floor features of the upper continental slope of the Garden Banks and Green Canyon regions, northern Gulf of Mexico: report for cruise G1-99-GM (99002)

During April 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a 13-day cruise in the Garden Banks and Green Canyon regions of the Gulf of Mexico. The R/V Gyre, owned by Texas A&M University, was chartered for the cruise. The general objectives were (1) to acquire very high resolution seismic-reflection data and side-scan sonar images of the upper and middle continental slope (200-1200-m water depths), (2) to study the acoustic character and features of the sea floor for evidence of sea-floor hazards, and (3) to look for evidence of subsurface gas hydrates and their effects. The Gulf of Mexico is well known for hydrocarbon resources, with emphasis now on frontier deep-water areas. For water depths greater than about 250 m, the pressure-termperature conditions are correct for the development of shallow-subsurface gas hydrate formation (Anderson et al., 1992). Gas hydrates are ice-like mixtures of gas and water (Kvenvolden, 1993). They are known to be present from extensive previous sampling in sea-floor cores and from mound-like features observed on the sea floor in many parts of the northern Gulf, including the Green Canyon and Garden Banks areas (e.g., Roberts, 1995). Seismic-reflection data are extensive in the Gulf of Mexico, but few very-high-resolution data like those needed for gas-hydrate studies exist in the public domain. The occurrence and mechanisms of gas hydrate formation and dissociation are important to understand, because of their perceived economic potential for methane gas, their potential controls on local and regional sea-floor stability, and their possible effects on earth climates due to massive release of methane greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. Three high-resolution seismic-reflection systems and one side-scan sonar system were used on the cruise to map the surface reflectance and features of the sea floor and the acoustic geometries and character of the shallow sub-surface. The cruise was designed to acquire regional and detailed local information. The regional survey covered an area about 3400 km2 in the Green Canyon and Garden Banks regions. Data recorded included 15 cu. in. water gun multichannel seismic-reflection and Huntec boomer information. Detailed surveys were planned in two parts of the study area, but due to a winch failure only one detailed survey was done in the Green Canyon area. The detailed survey included collection of 15 cu. in. water gun multichannel seismic-reflection, chirp seismic-reflection, and side-scan data.

Garden Banks Region, Green Canyon region, Gulf Of ↗
USGS2020

Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane

Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long‐term, network‐based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2026

Integrating habitat suitability and climate constraints to predict nonnative fish invasion risk for U.S. streams and inland lakes

Introduction: Nonnative fishes in streams and inland lakes can substantially alter aquatic ecosystems by degrading habitat conditions, competing with native species, and restructuring food webs. Identifying invasion hotspots can inform proactive management and prevention of nonnative species establishment. Methods: In this study, we identified streams and lakes across the conterminous United States that are vulnerable to invasion by 18 nonnative stream and 28 nonnative lake fish species. Habitat suitability models were developed separately for stream and lake species across nine ecoregions using natural and anthropogenic predictors, and species occurrences were predicted by integrating model results with climate match scores based on comparisons between environmental conditions in species’ native and potential nonnative ranges. We classified areas with both high habitat suitability and strong climate similarity as having high invasion potential and generated hotspot maps by stacking species-level predictions. Results: Florida exhibits the highest invasion risk for both habitat types. Stream hotspots were concentrated near major metropolitan areas, whereas lake hotspots were more widely distributed across the Great Lakes basin and the northeastern U.S. Twelve species were predicted to invade both habitat types, with goldfish ( Carassius auratus ) and pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ) showing particularly high invasion potential. Discussion: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of nonnative freshwater fish invasion risk and support targeted monitoring and management strategies.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2023

Editorial: Advanced physico-chemical technologies for water detoxification and disinfection

One of the most critical challenges we face today is access to clean water. Climate change, industrialization, high rates of urbanization, and population growth have resulted in many countries suffering from water crises, especially in the arid and semi-arid areas. Countries in different regions of the world have also been struggling over regional water availability and it is anticipated that these struggles may result in conflicts over shared water resources in these regions. Considering the adverse consequences of the water crisis, countries have been trying to increasingly cope with this problem of water availability by implementing sustainable water management plans and looking for alternative water supply sources.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2019

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American Forests

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

western North America↗
USGS2015

Legacy effects in linked ecological-soil-geomorphic systems of drylands

A legacy effect refers to the impacts that previous conditions have on current processes or properties. Legacies have been recognized by many disciplines, from physiology and ecology to anthropology and geology. Within the context of climatic change, ecological legacies in drylands (eg vegetative patterns) result from feedbacks between biotic, soil, and geomorphic processes that operate at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Legacy effects depend on (1) the magnitude of the original phenomenon, (2) the time since the occurrence of the phenomenon, and (3) the sensitivity of the ecological–soil–geomorphic system to change. Here we present a conceptual framework for legacy effects at short-term (days to months), medium-term (years to decades), and long-term (centuries to millennia) timescales, which reveals the ubiquity of such effects in drylands across research disciplines.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2019

Size distributions of Arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time

Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km 2 (100 m 2 ) to 1 km 2 . We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size ( R 2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Late-Glacial paleoecology of the Middle Susitna Valley, Alaska: Environmental context for human dispersal

We present here the results of multi-proxy analyses (sediment geochemistry, diatoms, and pollen) from sediment cores collected at four lakes in the middle Susitna Valley, Alaska. These lakes form a transect from the tundra to the boreal forest. The retrieved cores span from ~12,000 cal yr BP to the present, with age control provided by radiometric dates and tephra deposits, some of which are newly identified. Results indicate that deglaciation occurred before 12,000 cal yr BP and that by that time, the lakes were deep, productive, and surrounded by shrub tundra. The lake with the highest sampling resolution indicates a brief climatic reversal ~11,500 cal yr BP with decreased diatom-inferred lake level and lowered lake productivity, and reduced shrub presence. During the early to middle Holocene, all of the sedimentary records provide evidence of climatic amelioration with tree expansion and productive lakes. A middle to late Holocene climatic deterioration with reduced trees and a shallower, less productive lake is also indicated. In addition, the prominent Watana tephra at ~4,000 cal yr BP likely reduced lake productivity and affected the vegetation. Even though the region was relatively productive soon after deglaciation, people did not occupy the region until ~11,000 cal yr BP, about 1000 years later, and then only sparsely. By the middle and late Holocene, the region was more densely populated and this shift in human occupancy presumably reflects changes in resource abundance, especially caribou. Whether the Watana ashfall influenced caribou abundance and thus people, is still under investigation, but given the tephra’s effect on vegetation and lake productivity, it seems likely.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies

Introduction: Climate change is impacting forest-based agricultural systems with implications for producer decision-making and livelihoods. This article presents a case study on the observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies of maple syrup producers in the United States to climate change. Methods: We carried out two semi-structured surveys with maple producers on: (1) climate change and its impacts on the maple system ( n = 106 participants); and (2) responses to climate adaptation scenarios ( n = 98 participants). Additionally, we carried out two focus groups and key informant interviews ( n = 70+) to understand barriers and opportunities for climate adaptation. One of these focus groups and follow up key informant interviews was with tribally affiliated community members with the intention to acknowledge Indigenous Peoples’ voices, history, and relationships to the land. Results: Findings highlight that most of the surveyed producers (89%) have experienced the negative impacts of climate on maple syrup production. While 40% of participants feel concerned regarding the future of the maple system, 39% feel hopeful, with significant differences based on the age of the surveyed producers. The majority of producers have adapted their harvesting practices to climate effects. Producers shared knowledge of multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate scenarios comprised of: (1) stand management practices such as diversification of sap species tapped; (2) harvesting practices such as changing the type and number of taps; (3) sap processing practices focused on the integration of technology such as the use of an evaporator and reverse osmosis; and (4) marketing practices such as innovation of products and marketing different maple syrup characteristics. Responses shared by tribally affiliated producers highlight knowledge of multiple adaptation strategies that focus on long-term ecological management of forests rather than technological solutions. Discussion: Overall, findings emphasize the importance of cooperation and diversification at every level and dimension of the maple system for its long-term resilience.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗
USGS2019

One hundred pressing questions on the future of global fish migration science, conservation, and policy

Migration is a widespread but highly diverse component of many animal life histories. Fish migrate throughout the world's oceans, within lakes and rivers, and between the two realms, transporting matter, energy, and other species (e.g., microbes) across boundaries. Migration is therefore a process responsible for myriad ecosystem services. Many human populations depend on the presence of predictable migrations of fish for their subsistence and livelihoods. Although much research has focused on fish migration, many questions remain in our rapidly changing world. We assembled a diverse team of fundamental and applied scientists who study fish migrations in marine and freshwater environments to identify pressing unanswered questions. Our exercise revealed questions within themes related to understanding the migrating individual's internal state, navigational mechanisms, locomotor capabilities, external drivers of migration, the threats confronting migratory fish including climate change, and the role of migration. In addition, we identified key requirements for aquatic animal management, restoration, policy, and governance. Lessons revealed included the difficulties in generalizing among species and populations, and in understanding the levels of connectivity facilitated by migrating fishes. We conclude by identifying priority research needed for assuring a sustainable future for migratory fishes.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Municipal solid waste landfills harbor distinct microbiomes

Landfills are the final repository for most of the discarded material from human society and its “built environments.” Microorganisms subsequently degrade this discarded material in the landfill, releasing gases (largely CH 4 and CO 2 ) and a complex mixture of soluble chemical compounds in leachate. Characterization of “landfill microbiomes” and their comparison across several landfills should allow the identification of environmental or operational properties that influence the composition of these microbiomes and potentially their biodegradation capabilities. To this end, the composition of landfill microbiomes was characterized as part of an ongoing USGS national survey studying the chemical composition of leachates from 19 non-hazardous landfills across 16 states in the continental U.S. The landfills varied in parameters such as size, waste composition, management strategy, geography, and climate zone. The diversity and composition of bacterial and archaeal populations in leachate samples were characterized by 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, and compared against a variety of physical and chemical parameters in an attempt to identify their impact on selection. Members of the Epsilonproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, Clostridia, and candidate division OP3 were the most abundant. The distribution of the observed phylogenetic diversity could best be explained by a combination of variables and was correlated most strongly with the concentrations of chloride and barium, rate of evapotranspiration, age of waste, and the number of detected household chemicals. This study illustrates how leachate microbiomes are distinct from those of other natural or built environments, and sheds light on the major selective forces responsible for this microbial diversity.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗
USGS2023

Sierra Nevada amphibians demonstrate stable occupancy despite precipitation volatility in the early 21st Century

Climate can have a strong influence on species distributions, and amphibians with different life histories might be affected by annual variability in precipitation in different ways. The Sierra Nevada of California, United States, experienced some of the driest and wettest years on record in the early 21st Century, with variability in annual precipitation predicted to increase with climate change. We examined the relationship between adult occupancy dynamics of three high elevation anurans and site and annual variation in measures of winter severity, summer wetness, and cumulative drought. We further evaluated how these weather conditions affected the probability that each species would reproduce, conditional on their occurrence at a site. We found that although different aspects of weather affected the occupancy dynamics of each species differently, adult occupancy probabilities were generally stable throughout our 15-year study period. The probability of reproduction, although slightly more variable than adult occupancy, was similarly stable throughout the study. Although occurrence of the three species was resilient to recent extremes in precipitation, more detailed demographic study would inform the extent to which amphibian populations will remain resilient to increasing severity, duration, and frequency of drought and flood cycles.

California↗
USGS1988

Heavy-Mineral Placer Potential Map of the U.S. Continental Shelf, Western and Northern Gulf of Mexico

The establishment of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in 1983 by Presidential Proclamation opened for natural resource exploration a vast offshore frontier area contiguous to the United States and its territories. The EEZ extends from the seaward limit of state waters (3 nautical mi from shore) to 200 nautical mi offshore, and it includes the continental shelves. Within the context of the EEZ natural resource assessment effort, the purpose of this study is to delineate, on a regional basis, the potential for heavy-mineral placers on the U.S. Continental Shelf in the western and northern Gulf of Mexico from the United States-Mexico border to the Alabama-Florida state line. This map is intended to serve as a general guide for placer exploration. It shows favorable sea-floor areas for placer occurrence in water depths ranging from 0 to 100 fathoms (600 ft). The map can be used as a guide for focusing costly exploratory efforts, such as coring operations and geophysical surveys. The potential economic value of heavy-mineral placer concentrations on the U.S. Continental Shelf is a function of both geologic and economic variables. Geologic variables include the composition and concentration of the heavy-mineral assemblages and their environment of deposition. Economic variables include the current world market price of extracted metals, as well as the cost of mining, processing, and marketing the metals. These economic factors, in turn, are tempered by the nation1s socio-political climate, which determines its need for specific mineral resources at any given time.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗
USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗
USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Co-producing knowledge: The Integrated Ecosystem Model for resource management in Arctic Alaska

Assessments of climate-change effects on ecosystem processes and services in high-latitude regions are hindered by a lack of decision-support tools capable of forecasting possible future landscapes. We describe a collaborative effort to develop and apply the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and northwestern Canada to explore how climate change influences interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost integrity, hydrology, and vegetation, and how these dynamics in turn influence resource management decisions. This process emphasizes co-production of knowledge among decision makers, scientists, major funders, partners, and stakeholders. We highlight research findings based on IEM applications in Arctic Alaska, as well as successes and challenges of the co-production process. The overall framework and lessons from our work with the IEM are relevant to other collaborative efforts outside the Arctic that aim to develop a decision-support tool or an undertaking of equivalent scope.

Alaska↗