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USGS2020

Pseudo-prospective evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence

The 2019 Ridgecrest sequence provides the first opportunity to evaluate Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 with epidemic‐type aftershock sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The metrics consider synthetic catalogs simulated by the models rather than synoptic probability maps, thereby relaxing the Poisson assumption of previous CSEP tests. Our approach compares statistics from the synthetic catalogs directly against observations, providing a flexible approach that can account for dependencies and uncertainties encoded in the models. We find that, to the first order, both UCERF3‐ETAS and UCERF3‐NoFaults approximately capture the spatiotemporal evolution of the Ridgecrest sequence, adding to the growing body of evidence that ETAS models can be informative forecasting tools. However, we also find that both models mildly overpredict the seismicity rate, on average, aggregated over the evaluation period. More severe testing indicates the overpredictions occur too often for observations to be statistically indistinguishable from the model. Magnitude tests indicate that the models do not include enough variability in forecasted magnitude‐number distributions to match the data. Spatial tests highlight discrepancies between the forecasts and observations, but the greatest differences between the two models appear when aftershocks occur on modeled UCERF3‐ETAS faults. Therefore, any predictability associated with embedding earthquake triggering on the (modeled) fault network may only crystalize during the presumably rare sequences with aftershocks on these faults. Accounting for uncertainty in the model parameters could improve test results during future experiments.

California↗

USGS2021

The seismic hazard implications of declustering and poisson assumptions inferred from a fully time‐dependent model

We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumption in classic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We use 500,000 yr, M ≥ 2.5 synthetic catalogs to address this question, for which UCERF3‐ETAS exhibits realistic spatiotemporal clustering effects (e.g., aftershocks). We find that Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering, used in the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models, lowers 2% in 50 yr and risk‐targeted ground‐motion hazard metrics by about 4% on average (compared with the full time‐dependent [TD] model), with the reduction being 5% at 40% in 50 yr ground motions. Keeping all earthquakes and treating them as a Poisson process increases these same hazard metrics by about 3%–12%, on average, due to the removal of relatively quiet time periods in the full TD model. In the interest of model simplification, bias minimization, and consideration of the probabilities of multiple exceedances, we agree with others ( Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014 ) that we are better off keeping aftershocks and treating them as a Poisson process rather than removing them from hazard consideration via declustering. Honoring the true time dependence, however, will likely be important for other hazard and risk metrics, and this study further exemplifies how this can now be evaluated more extensively.

California↗

USGS2025

Bayesian ETAS modeling for the Pacific Northwest: Uncovering effects of tectonic regimes, regional differences, and swarms on aftershock parameters

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America has high seismic hazard due to numerous earthquake sources under populated areas. It hosts several tectonic regimes and subregional seismic zones that are hypothesized to have different patterns of earthquake and aftershock occurrence. It is also predisposed to earthquake swarms, which can complicate the statistical modeling of these patterns. We present the first statistical seismicity model of the PNW catalog using the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) framework. We develop a Bayesian inference procedure that provides a stable estimation of both ETAS parameters and their uncertainties for different sets of PNW earthquakes, even those with very sparse catalogs. The Bayesian approach allows us to investigate how parameter estimates change between the intraslab and crustal tectonic regimes, the northern and southern PNW, and when swarms are included and excluded from the catalog. We also utilize our Bayesian framework to calculate parameter estimates under different prior beliefs about PNW seismicity, as well as to propagate catalog measurement errors into ETAS parameter estimates. We discuss the implications of parameter differences across the region for aftershock forecasting for the PNW.

Pacific Northwest↗

USGS2017

Forecasting the (un)productivity of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence

The 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude. In the first 4.5 days, only 59 M ≥1.8 aftershocks occurred, the largest of which was an M 3.9 that happened a little over two days after the mainshock. We investigate the aftershock productivity of the South Napa sequence and compare it with other M ≥5.5 California strike‐slip mainshock–aftershock sequences. While the productivity of the South Napa sequence is among the lowest, northern California mainshocks generally have fewer aftershocks than mainshocks further south, although the productivities vary widely in both regions. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model ( Ogata, 1988 ) fit to Napa seismicity from 1980 to 23 August 2014 fits the sequence well and suggests that low‐productivity sequences are typical of this area. Utilizing regional variations in productivity could improve operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by improving the model used immediately after the mainshock. We show this by comparing the daily rate of M ≥2 aftershocks to forecasts made with the generic California model ( Reasenberg and Jones, 1989 ; hereafter, RJ89), RJ89 models with productivity updated daily, a generic California ETAS model, an ETAS model based on premainshock seismicity, and ETAS models updated daily following the mainshock. RJ89 models for which only the productivity is updated provide better forecasts than the generic RJ89 California model, and the Napa‐specific ETAS models forecast the aftershock rates more accurately than either generic model. Therefore, forecasts that use localized initial parameters and that rapidly update the productivity may be better for OEF than using a generic model and/or updating all parameters.

California↗

USGS2018

Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option

In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M "> M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some background level of hazard or risk, we emphasize that probability gains (the ratio of short‐term to long‐term‐average estimates) might be of particular interest to users. We also illustrate how such gains are highly sensitive to forecast duration and latency, with the latter representing how long it takes to generate the forecast and/or to take action. The influence of fault‐based information, which has traditionally been ignored in OEF, is also evaluated using the newly developed the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) model. We find that the inclusion of faults only makes a difference for hazard and risk metrics that are dominated by large‐event likelihoods. We also show how the ShakeMap of a mainshock represents a decent estimate of the ground motions that have a 6% chance of being exceeded due to aftershocks in the week that follows. The ultimate value of these types of OEF products can only be determined in the context of specific uses, and because these vary widely, institutions responsible for providing OEF products will depend heavily on user feedback, especially when making resource‐allocation decisions.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2022

Prospective and retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Geological Survey public aftershock forecast for the 2019-2021 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake and aftershocks

The M w "> M w 6.4 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake of 7 January 2020 was accompanied by a robust fore‐ and aftershock sequence. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has issued regular aftershock forecasts for more than a year since the mainshock, available on a public webpage. Forecasts were accompanied by interpretive and informational material, published in English and Spanish. Informational products included narrative “scenarios” for how the aftershock sequence could play out, infographics, and a report on the potential duration of the aftershock sequence through the next decade. Forecasts are based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and generated using the USGS AftershockForecaster software—an interactive graphical user interface built on the OpenSHA platform ( Field et al. , 2003 ). The initial forecast is based on past sequences in similar tectonic environments; subsequent forecasts are tuned to the ongoing sequence via Bayesian model updating. Probabilistic aftershock forecasts for the next day, week, month, and year were publicly released and archived at a daily to monthly tempo, allowing for a truly prospective test of the forecast. Here, we evaluate the forecast over the first year of the recorded aftershocks. The ETAS‐based forecast performed well overall, successfully capturing both the chance of having at least one earthquake of a given magnitude in a forecast interval as well as the non‐Poissonian distribution of the total number of aftershocks within an interval. A retrospective analysis shows that the ETAS model is a substantial improvement over the existing Reasenberg and Jones (1989) forecast model. The exercise also reveals some limitations of the current model, in particular, with respect to nonstationarities in the aftershock magnitude distribution and model parameters throughout the evolving sequence.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2022

Aftershocks preferentially occur in previously active areas

The clearest statistical signal in aftershock locations is that most aftershocks occur close to their mainshocks. More precisely, aftershocks are triggered at distances following a power‐law decay in distance ( Felzer and Brodsky, 2006 ). This distance decay kernel is used in epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling and is typically assumed to be isotropic, even though individual sequences show more clustered aftershock occurrence. The assumption of spatially isotropic triggering kernels can impact the estimation of ETAS parameters themselves, such as biasing the magnitude‐productivity term, alpha, and assigning too much weight to secondary rather than primary (direct) triggering. Here we show that aftershock locations in southern California, at all mainshock–aftershock distances, preferentially occur in the areas of previous seismicity. For a given sequence, the scaling between aftershock rates and the previous seismicity rate is approximately linear. However, the total number of aftershocks observed for a given sequence is independent of background rate. We explain both of these observations within the framework of rate‐and‐state friction ( Dieterich, 1994 ).

California↗

USGS2024

What do we know without the catalog? Eliciting prior beliefs from experts for aftershock models

Fitting parametric seismological models to earthquake catalogs often comes with numerical challenges, especially when catalogs are small. An alternative way to quantify parameter values for a seismic region is by eliciting expert opinions on the seismological characteristics that each parameter corresponds to. For instance, expert beliefs on aftershock patterns can be formulated into prior distributions for aftershock parameters, for example, for the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. We illustrate such a method by not only eliciting priors for ETAS parameters for the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a subduction zone with a complex tectonic environment, but also a relatively small catalog. We compare these priors with those suggested by the ETAS literature for global subduction zones, discussing implications for aftershock forecasting for the PNW.

The Seismic Record↗

USGS2005

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS1956

Ringworm in a population of snowshoe hares

The occurrence of ringworm, or dermatomycosis, in wild animals has been rarely reported. DeLamater (1939) described infections of Trichophyton mentagrophytes in common gray squirrels on and near the Johns Hopkins University campus at Baltimore. Errington (1942) and Charles (1946) reported on the occurrence of T. mentagrophytes in 35 of 364 litters (9.6%) of muskrats ( Ondatra zibethicus zibethicus ) in northwestern Iowa. Ninety-eight of 134 members (73%) of infected litters were recorded as contracting the fungus disease; of the 98, 90 died. Paul (1917), Lawrence (1918), and Connor (1932) mentioned ringworm epidemics of T. mentagrophytes among mice in wheat stacks of New South Wales and Victoria.

Montana↗

USGS2005

Water resources and the urban environment, lower Charles River watershed, Massachusetts, 1630-2005

The Charles River, one of the Nation’s most historically significant rivers, flows through the center of the Boston metropolitan region in eastern Massachusetts. The lower Charles River, downstream of the original head of tide in Watertown, was originally a productive estuary and important source of fish and shellfish for the Native Americans of the region. This portion of the river has an exceptionally long and colorful human history. In 1615, the explorer Captain John Smith gave the river its modern name, in honor of young Prince Charles of England. In 1617–18, the Native American community of the watershed was decimated by an epidemic, after having continuously occupied the area for the previous 4,000 years. In 1630, the first large group of English settlers, led by John Winthrop, set foot on the Shawmut Peninsula at the mouth of the river, and established the town of Boston. In the 1630s, the first printing press, public park, public school, and college in the English colonies were all established on the banks of the Charles River. Almost immediately, the settlers of Boston and adjacent towns also began to modify the landscape and water resources of the watershed. Perhaps the most important type of landscape alteration in the watershed was the filling of the extensive salt marshes and tidal flats of the estuary downstream of Watertown. This landmaking activity along the lower Charles River began in the mid-1600s, and did not conclude until the 1950s. In the early 20th century, the estuary mouth was dammed, creating a freshwater basin in the lower 9.5 miles of the river. A system of parks and parkways was built along the banks of the impounded river. In addition to the mainstem river, virtually all of the remaining water resources in the watershed have also been altered. Most of the river’s tributaries, for example, were culverted, or placed into tunnels, and many of the ponds and freshwater wetlands in the watershed were filled to facilitate urban development. One additional legacy of the river’s long human history is pollution from industry and sewage. By 1875, a total of 43 mills were operating along the lower Charles River between Watertown Dam and Boston Harbor. Thousands of gallons of untreated sewage and industrial wastewater entered the river daily through gravity drains, posing a major threat to public health. Concerted efforts to address the sewage problem began in the late 1870s. By the 1960s, the water quality of the river was significantly improved, yet still not suitable for swimming, fishing, or even boating under most conditions. In 1965, the Charles River Watershed Association was organized and the call to restore the environmental quality of the river and its parklands was heard anew. Passage of the Federal Clean Water Act in 1972 and the subsequent court-ordered reconstruction of the region’s sewage-treatment infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s (the “Boston Harbor Cleanup”) provided additional impetus to address the river’s remaining pollution problems. In 1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency launched the Clean Charles 2005 Initiative, which brought together government agencies, private-sector institutions, and environmental organizations to focus on restoring the river to fishable and swimmable conditions by Earth Day 2005. This initiative has achieved substantial improvements in water quality; sewage discharges to the river, for example, have been largely eliminated. Nevertheless, it is now widely acknowledged that full attainment of water-quality standards will likely depend upon improved public understanding of the watershed, continued efforts to eliminate illicit sewage discharges to the river, and better management of the urban runoff that enters the river both directly and from its many tributary streams.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2002

Occurrence of bacteria in Blue Marsh Lake and selected tributaries, Berks County, Pennsylvania: September-October 2001

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has water-quality standards that limit the number of specific bacteria in water that is considered safe for recreational use. Bacteria such as fecal streptococci, fecal coliforms, and Escherichia coli (E. coli ) are used to assess recreational water quality because they usually live in the intestines of warm-blooded animals. Fecal indicator bacteria commonly are associated with waterborne disease-causing organisms (pathogens). These indicator bacteria are used routinely as a measure of the quality of water for recreational activities such as swimming, boating, and water skiing. If the indicator bacteria are present, effective measures could be taken to prevent the transmission or epidemic outbreak of waterborne diseases as a result of contamination of these waters from human or animal waste. Blue Marsh Lake is on Tulpehocken Creek in Berks County, Pa., and drains a largely agricultural basin. Land use in the basin is approximately 60 percent cropland, and 85 percent of the farms are livestock and poultry farms. The potential sources of fecal bacteria are: geese that inhabit the recreational areas of the lake, humans that visit the Dry Brooks Day Use Area (swimming area), and farm animals, wastewater facilities, and household septic systems in the basin (bacteria from these sources could enter the lake through tributaries). To meet the recreational water-quality standard, lake water may not have more than 200 colony-forming units (CFU) of fecal coliforms per 100 milliliters (mL). During the week of July 23, 2001, data collected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) at the swimming area at Blue Marsh Lake showed concentrations of fecal coliforms in the water exceeding the standard. To determine the extent of elevated concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria, further study of the lake and selected tributaries was needed.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2013

Mountain pine beetle impacts on vegetation and carbon stocks

In the Southern Rocky Mountains, an epidemic outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) has caused levels of tree mortality unprecedented in recorded history. The impacts of this mortality on vegetation composition, forest structure, and carbon stocks have only recently received attention, although the impacts of other disturbances such as fires and land-use/land-cover change are much better known. This study, initiated in 2010, aims to increase our understanding of MPB outbreaks and their impacts. We have integrated field-collected data with vegetation simulation models to assess and quantify how long-term patterns of vegetation and carbon stocks have and may change in response to MPB outbreaks and other disturbances.

Colorado↗

USGS2000

Spatial distribution, temporal variability, and chemistry of the salt wedge in the lower Charles River, Massachusetts, June 1998 to July 1999

The Charles River is of great recreational and ecological value to the Boston metropolitan region and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. It is also the focus of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Region I, Clean Charles 2005 Task Force. The main goal of the Task Force is to make the Charles River 'fishable and swimmable' by the year 2005. Achieving 'fishable and swimmable' conditions will require continued progress in addressing a range of environmental conditions now degrading water quality, including the infiltration of saltwater from Boston Harbor into the freshwater Charles River.To better understand the pattern of saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management (MADEM), and New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), collected data on the spatial distribution, temporal variability, and chemistry of the saltwater that entered the lower Charles River from June 1998 to July 1999. The purpose of this investigation is to extend and complement a regional-scale study of Charles River water quality conducted in 1996 (T. Faber, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, written commun., 1997), and the ongoing water monitoring activities of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) and the Charles River Watershed Association (CRWA). The data collected by this investigation supports the Clean Charles 2005 Task Force by providing detailed information concerning a major factor limiting 'fishable and swimmable' conditions in the lower Charles River. Finally, the study will be used to assist current planning efforts of the Metropolitan District Commission (MDC) to restore the historic parklands of the lower Charles River.The 'Basin' is the local term for the reach of the Charles River that begins at the Watertown Dam in Watertown, Mass., and extends about 8 mi through suburban and urban areas to Boston Harbor. Discharge to the harbor is controlled by the 'new' Charles River Dam in Boston (fig. 1). The Basin was created by construction of the 'old' Charles River Dam in 1908 to solve Boston's sanitary problems. Prior to the building of the old Charles River Dam, the lower Charles River was a tidal estuary in which the water levels rose and fell twice daily with the tidal cycle. Low tide would expose untreated sewage that was discharged directly into the river. Exposed sewage created noxious odors and served as a breeding ground for mosquitoes that caused sporadic epidemics of malaria and yellow fever (Jobin, 1998). Damming of the river interrupted the normal tidal cycle and flooded the estuary by creating a freshwater pool (the Basin) that had a constant water elevation of about 0.8 meters (m) above mean sea level. Flooding of the estuary initially improved sanitary conditions and the Basin became a source of enjoyment for the local population and the focus of a large waterfront park in Boston and Cambridge (Jobin, 1998).Although the infiltration of saltwater from the harbor into the Basin was anticipated when the old Charles River Dam was built, neither the magnitude nor the consequences of the infiltration was considered. By 1975, the Metropolitan District Commission (MDC) determined that harbor water covered about 80 percent of the river bottom within the Basin and composed about 50 percent of its depth. The MDC also concluded that fish kills and odors in the spring of 1975 were likely the result of the sulfide-rich saltwater mixing with the overlying freshwater (Metropolitan District Commission, 1975).Saltwater from Boston Harbor that enters the Basin is known as the 'salt wedge' because of the shape it assumes as it moves upstream. Freshwater discharge from upstream pushes against the intruding harbor water until the density differences cause stratification to occur; the freshwater then overrides the denser harbor water (Fischer and others, 1979). The depth from

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1990

Reconnaissance investigation of water quality, bottom sediment, and biota associated with irrigation drainage in and near Stillwater Wildlife Management Area, Churchill County, Nevada, 1986-87

A reconnaissance was initiated in 1986 to determine whether the quality of irrigation-drainage water in and near the Stillwater Wildlife Management Area, Nevada, has caused or has potential to cause harmful effects on human health, fish, wildlife, or other beneficial uses of water. Samples of surface and groundwater, bottom sediment, and biota were collected from sites upstream and downstream from the Fallon agricultural area in the Carson Desert, and analyzed for potentially toxic trace elements. Other analysis included radioactive substances, major dissolved constituents, and nutrients in water, and pesticide residues in bottom sediment and biota. In areas affected by irrigation drainage, the following constituents were found to commonly exceed baseline concentrations or recommended criteria for protection of aquatic life or propagation of wildlife: In water, arsenic, boron, dissolved solids, molybdenum, sodium, and un-ionized ammonia; in bottom sediments, arsenic, lithium, mercury, molybdenum, and selenium; and in biota, arsenic, boron, chromium, copper, mercury, selenium, and zinc. In some wetlands, selenium and mercury appeared to be biomagnified, and arsenic bioaccumulated. Pesticides contamination in bottom sediments and biota was insignificant. Adverse biological effects observed during this reconnaissance included gradual vegetative changes and species loss, fish die-offs, waterfowl disease epidemics, and persistent and unexplained deaths of migratory birds. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Detection of group 1 coronaviruses in bats in North America

The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was caused by a newly emerged coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Bats of several species in southern People's Republic of China harbor SARS-like CoVs and may be reservoir hosts for them. To determine whether bats in North America also harbor coronaviruses, we used reverse transcription-PCR to detect coronavirus RNA in bats. We found coronavirus RNA in 6 of 28 fecal specimens from bats of 2 of 7 species tested. The prevalence of viral RNA shedding was high: 17% in Eptesicus fuscus and 50% in Myotis occultus. Sequence analysis of a 440-bp amplicon in gene 1b showed that these Rocky Mountain bat coronaviruses formed 3 clusters in phylogenetic group 1 that were distinct from group 1 coronaviruses of Asian bats. Because of the potential for bat coronaviruses to cause disease in humans and animals, further surveillance and characterization of bat coronaviruses in North America are needed.

Emerging Infectious Diseases↗

USGS2014

Differential susceptibility in steelhead trout populations to an emergent MD strain of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus

A significant emergence of trout-adapted MD subgroup infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) began in the coastal region of Washington State, USA, in 2007. This emergence event lasted until 2011 and caused both asymptomatic adult fish infection and symptomatic epidemic disease and mortality in juvenile fish. Incidence of virus during this emergence demonstrated a heterogeneous distribution among rivers of the coastal region, leaving fish populations of some rivers apparently untouched while others suffered significant and recurrent infection and mortality (Breyta et. al. 2013; Dis Aquat Org 104:179-195). In this study, we examined the possible contribution of variations in susceptibility of fish populations, age-related resistance, and virus virulence to the observed landscape heterogeneity. We found that the most significant variable was host susceptibility: by controlled experimental challenge studies steelhead trout populations with no history of IHNV infection were 1 to 3 orders of magnitude more sensitive than a fish population with a long history of IHNV infection. In addition, 2 fish populations from the same river, which descended relatively recently from a common ancestral population, demonstrated 1 to 2 orders of magnitude difference in susceptibility. Fish age-related development of resistance was most evident in the more susceptible of 2 related fish populations. Finally, the strain of virus involved in the 2007 coastal Washington emergence had high virulence but was within the range of other known M group viruses tested. These results suggest that one major driver of landscape heterogeneity in the 2007 coastal Washington IHNV emergence was variation in fish population susceptibility and that this trait may have a heritable component.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of nuclear inclusion X (NIX) infections on Pacific razor clam populations

ABSTRACT: Nuclear inclusion X (NIX), the etiological agent of bacterial gill disease in Pacific razor clams Siliqua patula , was associated with host mortality events in coastal Washington State, USA, during the mid-1980s. Ongoing observations of truncated razor clam size distributions in Kalaloch Beach, Washington, raised concerns that NIX continues to impact populations. We conducted a series of spatial and longitudinal NIX surveillances, examined archived razor clam gill tissue, and used population estimates from stock assessments to test whether (1) the prevalence and intensity of NIX infections is higher at Kalaloch Beach relative to nearby beaches, (2) infected gill tissue has features consistent with historical descriptions of NIX-associated histopathology, and (3) annual clam survival is inversely related to NIX infection prevalence and intensity. NIX prevalence exceeded 85% at all sampled locations, and infection intensity was the highest at Kalaloch Beach by 0.9-2.6 orders of magnitude. Kalaloch Beach clams revealed histopathology consistent with previous NIX epidemics, including enlarged and/or rupturing branchial epithelial cells, branchial necrosis, and high hemocyte densities. Estimated annual survival was 22% at Kalaloch Beach, and ranged between 57 and 99% at other study sites. NIX infection intensity (via quantitative PCR) was not significantly correlated with annual survival; however, annual survival was lowest at Kalaloch Beach, where infection intensities were highest, suggesting that clams can tolerate infections up to a lethal threshold. Collectively these data support the hypothesis that high NIX intensities are associated with host mortality. NIX-associated mortality appears to be more pronounced at Kalaloch Beach relative to other Washington beaches.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms↗