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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Banking on strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital in post-conflict Colombia

In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and $4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes.

Environment, Development, and Sustainability↗
USGS2013

Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations. Attention to the details of a model is one of the best ways to identify potential problems, correct them if possible, and begin to assess the magnitude of potential model errors and uncertainty. Model users need to determine the level of acceptable uncertainty associated with their objectives, identify all sources of potential uncertainty (model uncertainty, data uncertainty, etc.), and assess their approach and results accordingly. In the draft Klamath River TMDL, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality identified the upstream boundary conditions as the largest source of uncertainty for both the current and natural conditions scenarios, not the model algorithms or choice of model parameters. We agree that the upstream boundary conditions are one of the largest, if not the largest, source of model uncertainty; therefore, the derivation of upstream boundary conditions may be more important to the TMDL than some other model-related issues identified in this review. The revised models contain a number of changes, some of which were done to solve small problems and are largely inconsequential to model results, but others of which are important and affect model predictions of instream concentrations. A consistent version of the model is now applied to all scenarios, and an error in the source code was corrected that had inadvertently discarded 20 percent of the incoming solar radiation in the original model. The baseline light-extinction coefficient for water was decreased and set to a consistent and defensible value across all models of reservoir reaches. Inconsistencies among the values of certain parameters in the original models, such as the ammonia nitrification rate and the decomposition rates of organic matter, have been eliminated, although the reasoning behind the final selections was not documented. The dependence of the rate of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) on temperature was modified such that the SOD rate was substantially decreased at temperatures less than 20°C, causing the model to predict higher dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in spring, autumn, and winter. Although that change to the temperature dependence function was done to make the function more similar to the model’s default, this change was not accompanied by any documentation of recalibration or sensitivity exercises. The maximum SOD rate for the 2002 current conditions scenario was decreased from 3.0 grams per square meter per day (g/m 2 /d) in the original model to 2.0 g/m 2 /d in the revised model, a considerable adjustment that appears to have been needed to offset effects of a change to another variable (O2LIM) that would have resulted in a substantial increase in the effective SOD rate for 2002. A 50-percent decrease in the SOD rate over a 2-year period, however, is not likely to be mirrored by field measurements, so this change may be compensating for some process that is not represented correctly in the DO budget for the current conditions scenarios. Several important changes were made to the natural conditions scenario. First, the elevation of the Keno reef was corrected; the elevation specified in the original model was 1 foot too high, which affected the volume of the pooled reach and the travel time through it. The most important changes to this scenario were to the upstream boundary inputs of organic matter and algae, which affect incoming fluxes of nitrogen and phosphorus. Algal biomass inputs were increased by approximately 60 percent during summer because of a change in the way those inputs were derived from results of the UKL TMDL model. Non-algal organic matter inputs were decreased, particularly in summer to correct a problem attributed to double-counting of phosphorus in the original inputs. The distribution of non-algal organic matter was changed from 20 percent dissolved in the original model to 90 percent dissolved in the revised model in response to review comments and published data. The overall sum of algal biomass and non-living organic matter was decreased, which resulted in lower inputs of total phosphorus and nitrogen. Total phosphorus inputs were less than 0.03 mg/L, and although the inputs were derived from selected results of the UKL TMDL model, these concentrations seem too low to be representative of a historically eutrophic system surrounded by extensive wetlands, peat soils, and a groundwater system high in phosphorus. The draft TMDL states that the upstream boundary conditions are the greatest source of uncertainty, greater than any uncertainty associated with the models. Efforts to improve existing models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL, therefore, would provide a substantial benefit to downstream modeling efforts on the Klamath River. Although many improvements were made in revising the Klamath River TMDL models, some issues and uncertainties remain. Several errors in the model source code remain, but do not affect model results for this application as long as certain options and rates are not changed; future users of these models should be aware of these issues. Although the distribution of dissolved and particulate organic matter was modified for the natural conditions scenario, that distribution was not changed for the current conditions scenarios. Recent data on that distribution and the likely rates of organic matter decomposition could be used to improve these models in the future. Nitrate predictions at Keno (Highway 66) still are too high for the current conditions scenarios; future efforts should re-evaluate the model’s denitrification rates and the release rate of ammonia from anoxic sediments. Possibly the most important of the remaining issues are tied to the two-state (healthy/unhealthy) hypothesis for the algae population that was coded into the model. Some of the rates and conversion functions could be refined to make them more acceptable; currently, the published literature does not support the concept of moderately low dissolved-oxygen concentrations as a stressor of algae in the ranges used by the model. More research is needed before these algorithms can be truly tested. The algorithms currently appear to help the model fit the patterns in the available data, and that is useful and perhaps sufficient for some purposes, but those algorithms are not truly predictive or reliable for certain purposes until they can be tested through well-designed experiments and research. In summary, the TMDL models used to simulate Link and Klamath Rivers from Link River Dam to Keno Dam were revised to fix several problems and address various issues. The resulting models are an improvement over those that were reviewed by USGS in 2009, and represent a useful advance in the simulation of a complex system that is difficult to model. However, several issues remain that cause increased uncertainty in the model results. Depending on the objectives of the modeling, now or in the future, these remaining issues could be more or less important. For the Klamath River TMDL, the upstream boundary conditions may be a larger source of uncertainty than the concerns with model algorithms and model parameters identified in this review. Efforts to re-evaluate the available models of algal growth and nutrient cycling in UKL would be highly beneficial to downstream modeling efforts in the Klamath River.

Oregon;California↗
USGS1983

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Lewis' woodpecker

This document is part of the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) Model Series (FWS/OBS-82/10), which provides habitat information useful for impact assessment and habitat management. Several types of habitat i nformat i on are provided. The Habitat Use Information Section is largely constrained to those data that can be used to derive quantitative relationships between key environmental variables and habitat suitability. The habitat use information provides the foundation for HSI models that follow. In addition, this same information may be useful in the development of other models more appropriate to specific assessment or evaluation needs.

FWS/OBS↗
USGS2016

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2023

A regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range

Identifying habitat needs for species with large distributions is challenging because species-habitat associations may vary across scales and regions (spatial nonstationarity). Furthermore, management efforts often cross jurisdictional boundaries, complicating the development of cohesive conservation strategies among management entities. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a rapidly declining species that spans 11 U.S. states and responds to habitat conditions across a wide range of spatial scales and regions. Allowing for regional variance in species-habitat associations and suitability predictions could systematically identify important habitats at levels relevant to management. We collaboratively developed a model with Bureau of Land Management (BLM) biologists that: (1) evaluated the scale of effect for different environmental covariates; (2) accounted for regional differences in population-level responses; and (3) predicted probabilities of persistence across the U.S. occupied range. We modeled range-wide lek persistence data (6615 communal breeding sites classified as active or inactive) as a function of environmental covariates. Environmental covariates included sagebrush cover, pinyon-juniper cover, topography, precipitation, point and line disturbance densities, and landscape configuration metrics. Our model treated habitat assessment areas – regionally delineated by BLM biologists – as random intercepts and slopes that allowed for geographic variation in species-habitat associations and predicted probabilities of lek persistence. Our final model indicated support for 12 environmental covariates predicting lek persistence at scales extending between 1- to 15-km radii from lek centers, and a covariate measuring distance to the occupied range boundary. Five of these covariates showed significant regionally varying responses: sagebrush clumpiness (a measure of habitat aggregation), pinyon-juniper cover, point disturbance of anthropogenic features such as energy infrastructure and communication towers, elevation, and a topographic index associated with mesic habitats. This spatial nonstationarity indicates unitary range-wide recommendations, or rules-of-thumb with respect to their effects on lek persistence, may be problematic for these environmental conditions. For covariates that did not include random slopes, and which were potentially amenable to management actions, we found that leks were predicted to become extirpated when sagebrush cover fell below 9.6 % (summarized at the 3.2-km radius extent), and the proportion of classified sagebrush habitat fell below 0.7 (1-km). We produced a continuous predictive probability surface of lek persistence which we binned based on model sensitivity thresholds to produce habitat quality categories. The highest quality habitat (capturing 50 % of active leks) covered 25.5 % of the occupied range, while the combined lowest through highest quality habitats (capturing 95 % of active leks) covered 65.0 %. Accommodating regional environmental differences in models that are relevant to habitat management planning will help ensure their applicability to targeted goals. Continuous collaboration between modelers and land managers early in the modeling process increases the likelihood of this outcome.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS1996

Design and documentation of a Baltimore-Washington regional spatial database testbed for environmental model calibration and verification

Recent efforts by scientists and managers to inventory, map, and model impacts of human activities on the environment have focused on land transformation and urbanization processes. To test the efficacy of any single model, algorithm or procedure which defines land transformation processes a standard database calibration reference resource is required. Therefore, a set of georeferenced, spatially structured and well documented data sets has been designed for the Baltimore-Washington Region as a test and evaluation resource for the community of environmental modelers and global change scientists. Land transformation processes are being examined from a variety of perspectives and scales using a variety of indicator parameters and mensuration variables. Tools and techniques applied to land transformation assessments range from creation of simple population expansion maps to change detection calculations using remotely sensed satellite data. A variety of point and cell growth models have been applied to simulate the land transformation phenomenon. These activities have demonstrated the reality that urbanization and land transformation processes involve complex interacting variables. A team of scientists are expanding the efforts of the USGS Human Impacts on Land Transformation (HILT) project to build an Internet accessible "collaboratory" containing quality controlled spatially referenced calibration and validation databases. The Baltimore-Washington Regional Testbed provides for the calibration, verification, and validation for multiple scalar, temporal, thematic, and spectral assessments or models. This design and documentation procedures for creating the Baltimore-Washington Regional "Collaboratory" are presented in relation to its use for environmental modeling applications.

Maryland↗
USGS2018

Preliminary synthesis and assessment of environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed, Arizona

A 3-year study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of the available modeling tools for characterizing environmental flows in the middle Verde River watershed of central Arizona, describe riparian vegetation throughout the watershed, and estimate sediment mobilization in the river. Existing data on fish and macroinvertebrates were analyzed in relation to basin characteristics, flow regimes, and microhabitat, and a pilot study was conducted that sampled fish and macroinvertebrates and the microhabitats in which they were found. The sampling for the pilot study took place at five different locations in the middle Verde River watershed. This report presents the results of this 3-year study. The Northern Arizona Groundwater Flow Model (NARGFM) was found to be capable of predicting long-term changes caused by alteration of regional recharge (such as may result from climate variability) and groundwater pumping in gaining, losing, and dry reaches of the major streams in the middle Verde River watershed. Over the period 1910 to 2006, the model simulated an increase in dry reaches, a small increase in reaches losing discharge to the groundwater aquifer, and a concurrent decrease in reaches gaining discharge from groundwater. Although evaluations of the suitability of using the NARGFM and Basin Characteristic Model to characterize various streamflow intervals showed that smallerscale basin monthly runoff could be estimated adequately at locations of interest, monthly stream-flow estimates were found unsatisfactory for determining environmental flows. Orthoimagery and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data were used to quantify stream and riparian vegetation properties related to biotic habitat. The relative abundance of riparian vegetation varied along the main channel of the Verde River. As would be expected, more upland plant species and fewer lowland species were found in the upper-middle section compared to the lower-middle section, and vice-versa. Vegetation changes within the upper-middle and lower-middle reaches are related to differences in climate and hydrology. In general, the riparian vegetation of the middle Verde River watershed is that of a healthy ecosystem’s mixed age, mixed patch structure, likely a result of the mostly unaltered disturbance regime. The frequency of in-river hydrogeomorphic features (pool, riffle, run) varied along the middle Verde River channel. There was a greater abundance of riffle habitat in the upper-middle reach; the lower-middle reach included more pool habitat. The Oak Creek tributary was more homogenous in geomorphic stream habitat composition than West Clear Creek, where runs dominated the upper reaches and pools dominated many of the lower reaches. On the basis of the period of record and discharges recorded at 15-minute intervals, five flows were found to reach the gravel-transport threshold. Sediment mobilization computed with flows averaged over daily time steps yielded just three flows that reached the gravel-transport threshold, and monthly averaged flows yielded none. In the middle Verde River watershed, 15-minute data should be used when possible to evaluate sediment transport in the river system. Data from more than 300 fish surveys conducted from 1992 to 2011 were analyzed using two schemes, one that divided the river into five reaches based on basin characteristics, and a second that divided the river into five reaches based on degree of flow alteration (specifically, diversions). Fish community metrics and assemblage data were used to analyze patterns of species composition and abundance in the two approaches. Overall, native and non-native species were regularly interacting and probably competing for similar resources. Fish abundances were also analyzed in response to floods and other flow metrics. Although the data are limited, native fish abundances increased more rapidly than non-native fish abundances in response to large floods. The basin-characteristic reach analysis showed native fish in greater abundance in the upper-middle reaches of the Verde River watershed and generally decreasing with downstream distance. The median relative abundance of native fish decreased by 50 percent from reach 1 to reach 5. Using the reach scheme based on degree of flow alteration, nondiverted reaches were found to have a greater abundance of native fish than diverted reaches. In heavily diverted reaches, non-native species outnumbered native species. Fish metrics and stream-flow metrics for the 30, 90, and 365-day periods before collection were computed and the results analyzed statistically. Only abundance of all fish species was associated with the 30-day flow metrics. The 90-day flow metrics were generally positively associated with fish metrics, whereas the 365-day flow metrics had more negative correlations. In particular, significant relations were found between fish metrics and the magnitude and frequency of high flows, including maximum monthly flow, median annual number of high-flow events, and median annual maximum streamflow. Native sucker (Catostomidae) populations tended to decrease in periods of extended base flow, and fish in the non-native sunfish family (Centrarchidae) decreased in periods of flashy, high magnitude flows. A pilot study surveyed fish at five locations in the upper part of the middle Verde River watershed as a means to measure microhabitat availability and quantify native and non-native fish use of that available microhabitat. Results indicated that native and non-native species exhibit some clear differences in microhabitat use. Although at least some native and non-native fish were found in each velocity, depth, and substrate category, preferential microhabitat use was common. On a percentage basis, non-native species had a strong preference for slow-moving and deeper water with silt and sand substrate, with a secondary preference for faster moving and very shallow water and a coarse gravel substrate. Native species showed a general preference for somewhat faster, moderate depth water over coarse gravel and had no clear secondary preference. Macroinvertebrate-variables index period, high-flow year, and collection location (upper-middle Verde River, lowermiddle Verde River, or Verde River tributaries) were found to be important explanatory variables in differentiating among community metrics. Overall richness (number of unique taxa), Shannon’s diversity index, and the percent of the most dominant taxa were all highly correlated, but their response to each macroinvertebrate variable was different. The percentage of mayfly (order Ephemeroptera) taxa was significantly higher in Oak Creek and the upper-middle and lower-middle Verde River reaches, locations which have higher flows and more urbanization than other reaches. When community metrics were related to hydrologic metrics, caddisfly (order Trichoptera) populations appeared to increase and mayfly populations to decrease in response to less flashy and more stable streamflows. Conversely, caddisfly populations appeared to decrease and mayfly populations to increase in response to greater flow variability. Six locations along the Verde River were sampled for macroinvertebrates as part of a pilot study associated with this report—(1) below Granite Creek, (2) near Campbell Ranch, (3) at the U.S. Geological Survey Paulden gage, (4) at the Perkinsville Bridge, (5) at the USGS Clarkdale gage, and (6) near the Reitz Ranch property. A nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination of macroinvertebrate assemblages showed that the Verde River below Granite Creek site was different from the five other sites and that the Perkinsville Bridge and near Reitz Ranch samples had similar community structure. The near Campbell Ranch and Paulden gage locations had similar microhabitat characteristics, with the exception of riparian cover, yet the assemblage structure was very different. The different community composition at Verde River below Granite Creek was likely due to it having the smallest substrate sizes, lowest velocities, shallowest depths, and most riparian cover of the six sites.

Arizona↗
USGS2012

Arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposit model

This report provides a descriptive model for arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposits. Presented within are geological, geochemical, and mineralogical characteristics that differentiate this deposit type from porphyry copper and alkali-feldspar rhyolite-granite porphyry molybdenum deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey's effort to update existing mineral deposit models spurred this research, which is intended to supplement previously published models for this deposit type that help guide mineral-resource and mineral-environmental assessments. Arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposits are a substantial resource for molybdenum metal and may have anomalous concentrations of tungsten. The deposits contain low-grade ore (0.03-0.22 percent molybdenum) as molybdenite, but are large-tonnage, making them amenable to bulk mining open-pit techniques. The mineralizing system usually has fluorine contents of less than 0.1 percent. The cogenetic intrusion is a differentiated calc-alkaline granitoid, typically granodiorite to quartz monzonite in composition, with low rubidium and niobium, and moderate to high strontium concentrations. Metals and hydrothermal fluids are sourced from these intrusions, with an additional meteoric fluid component contributing to peripheral alteration but not adding more metal. The lithology of the surrounding country rocks is not important to the formation of these deposits, but a surrounding carbonate unit may be altered to skarn that contains economic mineralization. The creation of contact-metamorphosed hornfels adjacent to the intrusion is common. Formation of arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposits typically occurs within a continental arc environment related to arc-continent or continent-continent collision and subduction. Few deposits are found in an island arc setting. Most classified arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposits are located in the western cordillera of North America, notably in British Columbia and Alaska. Hydrothermal alteration provides a key component to the identification of a deposit. Alteration usually is zoned from a core of potassic plus/minus silicic alteration outwards through phyllic to propylitic alteration. Argillic alteration may be irregular in shape and will overprint earlier hydrothermal alteration. Exploration should be limited to magmatic arc belts that have been unroofed and eroded to levels of a few kilometers depth. Important geological vectors toward areas of higher grade mineralization include intensity of hydrothermal alteration, veining, and faulting. Anomalous levels of molybdenum, tungsten, copper, lead, or zinc in soils, tills, stream sediments, and drainage waters may indicate the presence of an arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposit. Geophysical exploration techniques have been met with minimal success because of the overall low concentration of associated sulfide and oxide minerals. Geoenvironmental concerns are generally low because of low volumes of sulfide minerals. Most deposits are marginally acid-generating to non-acid-generating with drainage waters being near-neutral pH because of the acid generating potential of pyrite being partially buffered by late-stage calcite-bearing veins. The low ore content results in a waste:ore ratio of nearly 1:1 and large tailings piles from the open-pit method of mining.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON)

The General Lake Model (GLM) is a one-dimensional open-source code designed to simulate the hydrodynamics of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands. GLM was developed to support the science needs of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), a network of researchers using sensors to understand lake functioning and address questions about how lakes around the world respond to climate and land use change. The scale and diversity of lake types, locations, and sizes, and the expanding observational datasets created the need for a robust community model of lake dynamics with sufficient flexibility to accommodate a range of scientific and management questions relevant to the GLEON community. This paper summarizes the scientific basis and numerical implementation of the model algorithms, including details of sub-models that simulate surface heat exchange and ice cover dynamics, vertical mixing, and inflow–outflow dynamics. We demonstrate the suitability of the model for different lake types that vary substantially in their morphology, hydrology, and climatic conditions. GLM supports a dynamic coupling with biogeochemical and ecological modelling libraries for integrated simulations of water quality and ecosystem health, and options for integration with other environmental models are outlined. Finally, we discuss utilities for the analysis of model outputs and uncertainty assessments, model operation within a distributed cloud-computing environment, and as a tool to support the learning of network participants.

Geoscientific Model Development↗
USGS2018

Estimating the effects of wetland conservation practices in croplands: Approaches for modeling in CEAP–Cropland Assessment

Quantifying the current and potential benefits of conservation practices can be a valuable tool for encouraging greater practice adoption on agricultural lands. A goal of the CEAP-Cropland Assessment is to estimate the environmental effects of conservation practices that reduce losses (exports) of soil, nutrients, and pesticides from farmlands to streams and rivers. The assessment approach combines empirical data on reported cropland practices with simulation modeling that compares field-level exports for scenarios “with practices” and “without practices.” Conserved, restored, and created wetlands collectively represent conservation practices that can influence sediment and nutrient exports from croplands. However, modeling the role of wetlands within croplands presents some challenges, including the potential for negative impacts of sediment and nutrient inputs on wetland functions. This Science Note outlines some preliminary solutions for incorporating wetlands and wetland practices into the CEAP-Cropland modeling framework. First, modeling the effects of wetland practices requires identifying wetland hydrogeomorphic type and accounting for the condition of both the wetland and an adjacent upland zone. Second, modeling is facilitated by classifying wetland-related practices into two functional categories (wetland and upland buffer). Third, simulating practice effects requires alternative field configurations to account for hydrological differences among wetland types. These ideas are illustrated for two contrasting wetland types (riparian and depressional).

CEAP-Wetlands Science Note↗
USGS2014

Hydrogeology of the Old Faithful area, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, and its relevance to natural resources and infrastructure

A panel of leading experts (The Old Faithful Science Review Panel) was convened by Yellowstone National Park (YNP) to review and summarize the geological and hydrological understanding that can inform National Park Service management of the Upper Geyser Basin area. We give an overview of present geological and hydrological knowledge of the Old Faithful hydrothermal (hot water) system and related thermal areas in the Upper Geyser Basin. We prioritize avenues for improving our understanding of key knowledge gaps that limit informed decision-making regarding human use in this fragile natural landscape. Lastly, we offer guidelines to minimize impacts to the hydrothermal system that could be used to aid decisions by park management. Old Faithful sits within the Upper Geyser Basin, an area of abundant hydrothermal activity where boiling waters extend from the surface to significant depth within glacial sediments and underlying volcanic rocks. The geyser systems are directly fed by waters recharged decades to millennia ago, which are surrounded by colder, younger waters. Activity of the geysers is controlled by complex subsurface plumbing with fractures and conduits separated by regions of low permeability. Observations over the past century indicate that the thermal areas and their features are both fragile and highly dynamic. Although Old Faithful has erupted regularly for the past 150 years, it exhibits changes in eruptive behavior over time, and the average interval between eruptions has increased by about 50 percent over the past 50 years. It is clear that human activity has modified the hydrothermal system in the past; conversely, natural features pose ongoing hazards to humans and human infrastructure. Current (2014) long-term programs to measure heat discharge by chloride-flux monitoring, and more recently by thermal-infrared imaging, are crucial for assessing the status of the hydrothermal system. Complementary studies could include airborne resistivity, environmental tracers, numerical modeling, and greater emphasis on measuring the discharge of water during geyser eruptions. Such data are needed to better understand the subsurface plumbing systems that feed the geysers. Further understanding can be gained through installation of shallow groundwater observation wells, surface geophysical studies, and direct measurement of temperature gradients near the surface. It also is critical to archive existing data from all studies in a manner that will be readily accessible to scientists and decision makers. Monitoring and data collection can be achieved through the YNP geology program, by direct funding to other groups, or by encouraging and facilitating externally funded research. There are many documented examples at YNP and elsewhere where human infrastructure and natural thermal features have negatively affected each other. Unless action is taken, human conflicts with the Old Faithful hydrothermal system are likely to increase over the coming years. This is partly because of the increase in park visitation over the past decades, but also because the interval between eruptions of Old Faithful has increased, lengthening the time spent (and services needed) for each visitor at Old Faithful. To avoid an increase in visitor impacts, the National Park Service should consider 2 alternate strategies to accommodate people, vehicles, and services in the Upper Geyser Basin, such as shuttle services from staging (parking and dining) areas with little or no recent hydrothermal activity. We further suggest that YNP consider a zone system to guide maintenance and development of infrastructure in the immediate Old Faithful area. A “red” zone includes hydrothermally active land where new development is discouraged and existing infrastructure is modified with great care. An outer “green” zone represents areas where cooler temperatures and less hydrothermal flow are thought to exist, and where development and maintenance could proceed as occurs elsewhere in the park. An intermediate “yellow” zone would require preliminary assessment of subsurface temperatures and gas concentrations to assess suitability for infrastructure development. The panel recommends that YNP management follow the lead of the National Park System Advisory Board Science Committee (2012) by applying the “precautionary principle” when making decisions regarding the interaction of hydrothermal phenomena and park infrastructure in the Old Faithful area and other thermal areas within YNP.

Wyoming↗
USGS2009

Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO 2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO 2 by 0.53 PgC yr −1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr −1 , and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO 2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO 2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO 2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2021

Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH 4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH 4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. We used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH 4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH 4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH 4 emissions.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Assessing the risk of dreissenid mussel invasion in Texas based on lake physical characteristics and potential for downstream dispersal

ebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ) and quagga mussels ( Dreissena bugensis ) were likely introduced from Ponto-Caspian Eurasia to the Laurentian Great Lakes inadvertently via ballast water release in the 1980s and have since spread across the US, including Texas. Their spread into the state, including reservoirs in both Brazos River and Colorado River basins, has resulted in a need to delimit suitable dreissenid habitat and dispersal potential in Texas. The objective of our research was to assess invasion risk in Texas by 1) predicting distribution of suitable habitat of zebra and quagga mussels using Maxent models; 2) refining lake-specific predictions for present zebra mussels via collection of physicochemical data; and 3) assessing the potential for downstream spread of zebra mussels by applying environmental DNA (eDNA) methods in the Leon and Lampasas Rivers downstream from the invaded Lakes Belton and Stillhouse Hollow, respectively. Maxent models did not predict the occurrence of suitable habitat for quagga mussels within Texas. However, our models accurately identified global zebra mussel habitat (AUC = 0.919), and Bioclim layers representing temperature and precipitation data both strongly influenced predictions. Predicted “hotspots” of suitable zebra mussel habitat in Texas occurred along the Red and Sabine Rivers of north and east Texas, as well as patches of suitable habitat in central Texas between the Colorado and Brazos Rivers and extending inland along the Gulf Coast. Most of the Texas panhandle, west Texas extending toward El Paso, and the Rio Grande valley were predicted to provide poor habitat suitability. Collection of physicochemical data (dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and temperature on-site as well as laboratory analysis for Ca, N, and P) from zebra mussel invaded lakes and a subset of identified high-risk lakes of North and Central Texas, did not aid predictions. Visual inspection of biplots of the first three components of a principle component analysis, which together accounted for ~80% of data variability, did not reveal separation between invaded and uninvaded lakes, and logistic regression analysis also failed to identify predictive relationships between measured variables and invasion status. Using eDNA analysis, we detected the presence of zebra mussel eDNA at 11 of 12 sites and up to at least 90.7 river km downstream from a pair of infested reservoirs. Rate of positive detection among water samples at each site ranged from 1/5 to 5/5, and within positive water samples, rate of detection among technical replicates ranged from 1/8 to 8/8, suggesting considerable heterogeneity in the zebra mussel eDNA signal in both rivers. Furthermore, no clear spatial pattern in detection rate occurred. Thus, a monitoring strategy that combines traditional sampling (e.g. settlement substrate samplers and microscopy) at sites immediately below a dam, and transitioning to more sensitive eDNA analysis at distances further from the dam may represent the most successful strategy for detection of dreissenid mussel downstream dispersal. Overall, we have demonstrated that while quagga mussels do not appear to represent an invasive threat in Texas, suitable habitat for continuing zebra mussel invasion exists within Texas, and stream and river connections may contribute to their spread. The threat of continued expansion of this poster-child for negative invasive species impacts warrants further prevention efforts, management, and research.

continental United States↗
USGS2025

Fish-assemblage evaluation in the lower Sandusky River, Ohio, following dam removal

The Sandusky River, Ohio, USA, has experienced more than a century of alterations, including dam implementation and removal, causing a cascade of habitat changes. The physical changes in the river led to establishment of several invasive species. Ten hoop-net sampling sites, spaced about 500 m apart were established in the river to monitor fish assemblage and their habitat preferences. Four 10-d sampling events were completed from April through October 2021. Ordination analyses were used to assess fish-assemblage structure seasonably, species-habitat relationships, and life-history strategies of 31 species. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to assess temporal factors that may drive diversity and community assemblage. Models indicated increased species richness after removal of the dam. Presence and proportion of catch data were compared to Ohio Environmental Protection Agency 2009 pre-dam-removal data to further assess changes in fish assemblage. Several species, especially catostomids, have begun to use the habitat downstream of the former dam, altering fish assemblage throughout the river. We expect shifts in assemblage structure to persist, making continued monitoring essential for understanding how non-native and recreationally important species continue to respond to dam removal.

Ohio↗
USGS2001

The Upper Pennsylvanian Pittsburgh coal bed: Resources and mine models

The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a digital coal resource assessment model of the Upper Pennsylvanian Pittsburgh coal bed, which indicates that after subtracting mined-out coal, 16 billion short tons (14 billion tonnes) remain of the original 34 billion short tons (31 billion tonnes) of coal. When technical, environmental, and social restrictions are applied to the remaining Pittsburgh coal model, only 12 billion short tons (11 billion tonnes) are available for mining. Our assessment models estimate that up to 0.61 billion short tons (0.55 billion tonnes), 2.7 billion short tons (2.4 billion tonnes), and 8.5 billion short tons (7.7 billion tonnes) could be available for surface mining, continuous mining, and longwall mining, respectively. This analysis is an example of a second-generation regional coal availability study designed to model recoverability characteristics for all the major coal beds in the United States.

Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗
USGS1999

Prediction of episodic acidification in North-eastern USA: An empirical/mechanistic approach

Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the North-eastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variable. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess 'chemically new' and 'chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the Northeastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variables. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess `chemically new' and `chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2014

Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

Krycklan River↗