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Development of an adaptive harvest management program for Taiga bean geese

This report describes recent progress in specifying the elements of an adaptive harvest program for taiga bean goose. It describes harvest levels appropriate for first rebuilding the population of the Central Management Unit and then maintaining it near the goal specified in the AEWA International Single Species Action Plan (ISSAP). This report also provides estimates of the length of time it would take under ideal conditions (no density dependence and no harvest) to rebuild depleted populations in the Western and Eastern Management Units. We emphasize that our estimates are a first approximation because detailed demographic information is lacking for taiga bean geese. Using allometric relationships, we estimated parameters of a thetalogistic matrix population model. The mean intrinsic rate of growth was estimated as r = 0.150 (90% credible interval: 0.120 – 0.182). We estimated the mean form of density dependence as   2.361 (90% credible interval: 0.473 – 11.778), suggesting the strongest density dependence occurs when the population is near its carrying capacity. Based on expert opinion, carrying capacity (i.e., population size expected in the absence of hunting) for the Central Management Unit was estimated as K  87,900 (90% credible interval: 82,000 – 94,100). The ISSAP specifies a population goal for the Central Management Unit of 60,000 – 80,000 individuals in winter; thus, we specified a preliminary objective function as one which would minimize the difference between this goal and population size. Using the concept of stochastic dominance to explicitly account for uncertainty in demography, we determined that optimal harvest rates for 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons were h = 0.00, 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. These optima represent a tradeoff between the harvest rate and the time required to achieve and maintain a population size within desired bounds. We recognize, however, that regulation of absolute harvest rather than harvest rate is more practical, but our matrix model does not permit one to calculate an exact harvest associated with a specific harvest rate. Approximate harvests for current population size in the Central Management Unit are 0, 1,200, 2,300, and 3,500 for the 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons, respectively. Populations of taiga bean geese in the Western and Eastern Units would require at least 10 and 13 years, respectively, to reach their minimum goals under the most optimistic of scenarios. The presence of harvest, density dependence, or environmental variation could extend these time frames considerably. Finally, we stress that development and implementation of internationally coordinated monitoring programs will be essential to further development and implementation of an adaptive harvest management program.

Conference Paper

Preface to book: Wetland carbon and environmental management

The idea for this book, including its organization and contents, has its origin in the latest environmental and climate policy requirements in the United States, as well as science advances. In 2007, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), from which Section 712 required U.S. Federal agencies to provide a better understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes across the United States. As a result, largescale and coordinated efforts were launched to assess carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and greenhouse gas fluxes including CO2, CH4, and N2O from all major terrestrial and freshwater aquatic ecosystems, including forest, grassland/shrub, agricultural lands, wetlands, and rivers, streams, lakes, and impoundments. The EISA assessment produced major results (Selmants et al., 2017; Zhu, 2011; Zhu & McGuire, 2016; Zhu & Reed, 2012, 2014), but recognized that wetlands remained a significant source of uncertainty, especially for those wetlands that were being actively managed. The more recent Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which devoted two separate chapters to inland and coastal wetlands, respectively, noted that large knowledge gaps still remain, ranging from inadequate analysis of restored and managed wetlands, and consequences of management decisions, to future wetland responses to climate change (USGCRP, 2018). In recent literature, wetland management is suggested as a potential natural solution to mitigate climate change (Fargione et al., 2018, Kroeger et al., 2017) and help offset direct losses of wetlands from sea level rise, subsidence, and coastal erosion (Wang et al., 2017). The recognition that a synthesis of wetland carbon management was urgently needed was the genesis of Wetland Carbon and Environmental Management; discerning the relationships between wetland management and carbon flux (loss or gain) is an international goal.

Geophysical Monograph Series

Mangrove isotopic (δ15N and δ13C) fractionation across a nitrogen vs. phosphorus limitation gradient

Mangrove islands in Belize are characterized by a unique switching from nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) limitation to tree growth from shoreline to interior. Fertilization has previously shown that Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove) fringe trees (5–6 m tall) growing along the shoreline are N limited; dwarf trees ( ≤ 1.5 m tall) in the forest interior are P limited; and transition trees (2–4 m tall) are co-limited by both N and P. Growth patterns paralleled a landward decrease in soil flushing by tides and an increase in bioavailable N, but P availability remained consistently low across the gradient. Stable isotopic composition was measured in R. mangle leaves to aid in explaining this nutrient switching pattern and growth variation. Along control transects, leaf δ15N decreased from +0.10‰ (fringe) to -5.38‰ (dwarf). The δ15N of N-fertilized trees also varied spatially, but the values were consistently more negative (by ~3‰) compared to control trees. Spatial variation in δ15N values disappeared when the trees were fertilized with P, and values averaged +0.12‰, similar to that in control fringe trees. Neither variation in source inputs nor microbial fractionation could fully account for the observed patterns in δ15N . The results instead suggest that the lower δ15N values in transition and dwarf control trees were due to plant fractionation as a consequence of slower growth and lower N demand. P fertilization increased N demand and decreased fractionation. Although leaf δ13C was unaffected by fertilization, values increased from fringe (-28.6‰) to transition (-27.9‰) to dwarf (-26.4‰) zones, indicating spatial variation in environmental stresses affecting stomatal conductance or carboxylation. The results thus suggest an interaction of external supply, internal demand, and plant ability to acquire nutrients under different hydro-edaphic conditions that vary across this tree-height gradient. The findings not only aid in understanding mangrove discrimination of nitrogen and carbon isotopes, but also have implications for identifying nutrient loading and other stress conditions in coastal systems dominated by mangroves.

Twin Cays

Alluvial Diamond Resource Potential and Production Capacity Assessment of Ghana

In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by both diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in 'conflict' diamonds while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was to assess the alluvial diamond resource endowment and current production capacity of the alluvial diamond-mining sector in Ghana. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields. The production capacity of the sector was estimated using a formulaic expression of the number of workers reported in the sector, their productivity, and the average grade of deposits mined. This study estimates that there are approximately 91,600,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remaining in both the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields: 89,000,000 carats in the Birim and 2,600,000 carats in the Bonsa. Production capacity is calculated to be 765,000 carats per year, based on the formula used and available data on the number of workers and worker productivity. Annual production is highly dependent on the international diamond market and prices, the numbers of seasonal workers actively mining in the sector, and environmental conditions, which influence seasonal farming.

Scientific Investigations Report

Ecotoxicology of Wild Mammals

An international group of 32 scientists has critically reviewed the scientific literature on exposure and effects of environmental contaminants in wild mammals. The underlying theme of this text is encompassed by the following four questions: What exactly do we know about environmental contaminants in mammals? What are the commonalities and differences between mammal orders/species in the effects that contaminants have? How and to what degree of accuracy can we predict the adverse effects of environmental contaminants on mammalian wildlife? How significant are contaminant insults compared with other density-independent and -dependent factors such as habitat loss, climatic factors and disease? The book is organized three topical sections including introductory chapters that provide a background on environmental contaminants and the mammalian orders, eight taxonomic chapters discussing all aspects of the exposure to and effects of contaminants in mammalian orders, and four thematic chapters that review and discuss generic issues including biomarkers, prediction and extrapolation of exposure and effects, hazard and risk assessment, and the relative significance of contaminants on mammals compared with other commonly encountered stressors. A final a summary chapter identifies phylogenetic trends, critical data gaps, and overarching research needs. Although the absolute number of toxicological studies in domesticated and wild mammals eclipses that wildlife species, a detailed examination of our knowledge base reveals that information for 'wild' birds is actually greater than that for 'wild' mammals. Of the various mammalian taxa, ecotoxicological data is most noticeably lacking for marsupials and monotremes. In contrast, rodents (comprising 43% of all mammal species) have been studied extensively, despite evidence of their tolerance to some organochlorine compounds, rodenticides, and even radionuclides. Mammalian species at greatest risk of exposure include those that consume a high percentage of their body weight on a daily basis. Aquatic mammals tend to bioaccumulate tremendous burdens of lipophilic contaminants, although storage in their fat depots may actually limit toxicity. Carnivores appear to be more sensitive to adverse effects of environmental contaminants than herbivores. Remarkably few of the thousands of compounds manufactured worldwide have been toxicologically evaluated in wild mammals, and concentrations of even fewer have been monitored in tissues.

Ecological & Environmental Toxicology Series.

Ecotoxicology of wild mammals

An international group of 32 scientists has critically reviewed the scientific literature on exposure and effects of environmental contaminants in wild mammals. Although the absolute number of toxicological studies in domesticated and wild mammals eclipses that for birds, a detailed examination of scientific publications and databases reveal that information for 'wild' birds is actually greater than that for 'wild' mammals. Of the various taxa of mammals, ecotoxicological data is most noticeably lacking for marsupials and monotremes. In contrast, rodents (comprising 43% of all mammal species) have been studied extensively, despite evidence of their tolerance to some organochlorine compounds, rodenticides, and even radionuclides. Mammalian species at greatest risk of exposure include those that consume a high percentage of their body weight on a daily basis (e.g., shrews, moles and bats). Aquatic mammals tend to bioaccumulate tremendous burdens of lipophilic contaminants, although storage in their fat depots may actually limit toxicity. Carnivores appear to be more sensitive to adverse effects of environmental contaminants than herbivores. Remarkably few of the thousands of compounds manufactured worldwide have been toxicologically evaluated in wild mammals, and concentrations of even fewer have been monitored in tissues. Overarching research needs include: development of new exposure/effects models and better methods for estimation of species sensitivities; generation of comparative data on contaminant bioavailability, sublethal responses and detoxication mechanisms; enhanced understanding of pesticide, industrial contaminant and metal interactions; identification of endocrine disruptive contaminants and their overall ecological significance; and finally, estimating the relative contribution of environmental contamination as a factor affecting wild mammal populations.

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,

The Landsat program: Its origins, evolution, and impacts

Landsat 1 began an era of space-based resource data collection that changed the way science, industry, governments, and the general public view the Earth. For the last 25 years, the Landsat program - despite being hampered by institutional problems and budget uncertainties - has successfully provided a continuous supply of synoptic, repetitive, multi-spectral data of the Earth's land areas. These data have profoundly affected programs for mapping resources, monitoring environmental changes, and assessing global habitability. The societal applications this program generated are so compelling that international systems have proliferated to carry on the tasks initiated with Landsat data.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Measuring the impacts of natural amenities and the US-Mexico Border, on housing values in the Santa Cruz Watershed, using spatially-weighted hedonic modeling

Assessing the sustainability of International policy or urban development requires consideration of the impacts of these decisions on Ecosystem Services, or the values that humans receive from the ecosystem, including market-land price, environmental, and human well-being values. Hedonic modeling helps to identify the market land price, considering the price is determined by multiple factors affecting it. In U.S. portions of the bi-national Santa Cruz Watershed (SCW), situated at the Arizona-Sonora International border, natural amenities like the riparian corridor and green space have been documented as positive amenities that boost local real estate. The goal of this research is to isolate the effects of the US-Mexico border and known environmental or natural amenities or disamenities on housing prices in the binational watershed, while controlling for housing stock characteristics and social-environmental vulnerability. In the ultimate analysis, the mean house values within census blocks will be used to represent local housing stock. A human well-being index that measures people’s socio-environmental vulnerability for the entire SCW is in publication that is based on access to infrastructure, number of bedrooms per house and other social data from the binational census and local colonias database will also be compared. The hedonic pricing method will be applied to statistically estimate a function that relates property values to the variables described. This presentation will provide a synopsis of the quality of life and hedonics literature review used to develop this research agenda. Variables relevant for local environmental management, having significant effects on property values, will be discussed. The final results obtained from this study can be used determine the benefits of preserving or developing land binationally and will be uploaded to the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online Ecosystem Services tool, being created to promote sustainable development in the Borderlands.

Conference Paper

PFAS mixture composition and internal exposure profiles shape biological responses under field-realistic exposure

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) occur as complex mixtures, yet mixture-dependent biological effects under environmentally realistic exposure conditions remain poorly understood. We conducted multiyear (2018, 2019, 2021) continuous-flow, field-based exposures of male fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) using a low-PFAS reference well (REF; sum of measured PFAS (∑PFAS) 0.1–0.2 μg L –1 ) and PFAS-contaminated groundwater from a fire-training area (FTA) at Joint Base Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Dilution treatments enabled separation of concentration and mixture effects. Groundwater from well FTA1 was perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) dominated (∑PFAS 10–31 μg L –1 ), whereas groundwater from well FTA2 had higher concentrations and was enriched in perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and diverse precursors (∑PFAS ∼ 80 μg L –1 ). Despite comparable plasma ∑PFAS and PFOS in FTA1–100% and FTA2–50% on day-7, cumulative mortality reached approximately 35% in FTA2–50% and 17% in FTA2–100%, and secondary sex trait expression was reduced by approximately 65–80% relative to REF, whereas sperm motility effects were mixture- and time-dependent. Plasma PFAS profiles were dominated by perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS), PFOS, and sulfonamide precursors. Liver transcriptomics from REF-acclimated fish revealed robust disruption of metabolic, mitochondrial, and endocrine pathways that link PFAS mixture chemistry and internal exposure profiles to organismal outcomes, and testis transcriptomics provided complementary insight into reproductive impairment. These results indicate that PFAS mixture composition and internal exposure profiles, including precursor-associated differences, are important determinants of ecotoxicological outcomes under field-realistic conditions.

Massachusetts

Strategic Science for Coral Ecosystems 2007-2011

Shallow and deep coral ecosystems are being imperiled by a combination of stressors. Climate change, unsustainable fishing practices, and disease are transforming coral communities at regional to global scales. At local levels, excessive amounts of sediments, nutrients, and contaminants are also impacting the many benefits that healthy coral ecosystems provide. This Plan, Strategic Science for Coral Ecosystems, describes the information needs of resource managers and summarizes current research being conducted by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners. It outlines important research actions that need to be undertaken over the next five years to achieve more accurate forecasting of future conditions and develop more effective decision-support tools to adaptively manage coral ecosystems. The overarching outcome of this Plan, if fully implemented, would be in transferring relevant knowledge to decision-makers, enabling them to better protect and sustain coral ecosystem services. These services include sources of food, essential habitat for fisheries and protected species, protection of coastlines from wave damage and erosion, recreation, and cultural values for indigenous communities. The USGS has a long history of research and monitoring experience in studying ancient and living coral communities and serving many stakeholders. The research actions in this Plan build on the USGS legacy of conducting integrated multidisciplinary science to address complex environmental issues. This Plan is responsive to Federal legislation and authorities and a variety of external and internal drivers that include the President's Ocean Action Plan, the recommendations of the Coral Reef Task Force, the information needs of Bureaus in the Department of Interior, the USGS Bureau Science Strategy (USGS 2007) and the formal plans of several USGS Programs. To achieve this Plan's desired outcomes will require increased funding and more effective coordination and collaboration among USGS managers and scientists within a national and international framework of partnerships in coral ecosystem science.

Circular

The World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI)

The Issue Policymakers around the world require accurate information on coal, particularly information on coal properties and characteristics, to make informed decisions regarding the best use of indigenous resources, international import needs and export opportunities, domestic and foreign policy objectives, technology transfer opportunities, foreign investment prospects, environmental and health assessments, and byproduct use and disposal issues.

Fact Sheet

Quality of water and sediment in streams affected by historical mining, and quality of Mine Tailings, in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin, Big Bend Area of the United States and Mexico, August 2002

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Boundary and Water Commission - U.S. and Mexican Sections, the National Park Service, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, the Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales in Mexico, the Area de Proteccion de Flora y Fauna Canon de Santa Elena in Mexico, and the Area de Proteccion de Flora y Fauna Maderas del Carmen in Mexico, collected samples of stream water, streambed sediment, and mine tailings during August 2002 for a study to determine whether trace elements from abandoned mines in the area in and around Big Bend National Park have affected the water and sediment quality in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin of the United States and Mexico. Samples were collected from eight sites on the main stem of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, four Rio Grande/Rio Bravo tributary sites downstream from abandoned mines or mine-tailing sites, and 11 mine-tailing sites. Mines in the area were operated to produce fluorite, germanium, iron, lead, mercury, silver, and zinc during the late 1800s through at least the late 1970s. Moderate (relatively neutral) pHs in stream-water samples collected at the 12 Rio Grande/Rio Bravo main-stem and tributary sites indicate that water is well mixed, diluted, and buffered with respect to the solubility of trace elements. The highest sulfate concentrations were in water samples from tributaries draining the Terlingua mining district. Only the sample from the Rough Run Draw site exceeded the Texas Surface Water Quality Standards general-use protection criterion for sulfate. All chloride and dissolved solids concentrations in water samples were less than the general-use protection criteria. Aluminum, copper, mercury, nickel, selenium, and zinc were detected in all water samples for which each element was analyzed. Cadmium, chromium, and lead were detected in samples less frequently, and silver was not detected in any of the samples. None of the sample concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, chromium, nickel, selenium, and zinc exceeded the Texas Surface Water Quality Standards criteria for aquatic life-use protection or human health. The only trace elements detected in the water samples at concentrations exceeding the Texas Surface Water Quality Standards criterion for human health (fish consumption use) was lead at one site and mercury at 10 of 12 sites. Relatively high mercury concentrations distributed throughout the area might indicate sources of mercury in addition to abandoned mining areas. Streambed-sediment samples were collected from 12 sites and analyzed for 44 major and trace elements. In general, the trace elements detected in streambed-sediment samples were low in concentration, interpreted as consistent with background concentrations. Concentrations at two sites, however, were elevated compared to Texas Commission on Environmental Quality criteria. Concentrations of antimony, arsenic, cadmium, lead, silver, and zinc in the sample from San Carlos Creek downstream from La Esperanza (San Carlos) Mine exceeded the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality screening levels for sediment. The sample from Rough Run Draw, downstream from the Study Butte Mine, also showed elevated concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, and lead, but these concentrations were much lower than those in the San Carlos Creek sample and did not exceed screening levels. Elevated concentrations of multiple trace elements in streambed-sediment samples from San Carlos Creek and Rough Run Draw indicate that San Carlos Creek, and probably Rough Run Draw, have been adversely affected by mining activities. Fourteen mine-tailing samples from 11 mines were analyzed for 25 major and trace elements. All trace elements except selenium and thallium were detected in one or more samples. The highest lead concentrations were detected in tailings samples from the Boquillas, Puerto Rico, La Esperanza (San Carlos), and Tres Marias Mines, as might be expected because the tailings ar

Scientific Investigations Report

Columbia Environmental Research Center

The U.S. Geological Survey Columbia Environmental Research Center performs research to solve challenging environmental problems related to contaminants and habitat alterations in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. The research is interdisciplinary and pursued through partnerships within the U.S. Geological Survey and with national, international, state, and local agencies; nongovernmental organizations; and universities. Research is prioritized to provide science to the U.S. Department of the Interior and other natural resource management agencies to inform rehabilitation of degraded habitats and imperiled fish and wildlife populations. The Columbia Environmental Research Center was established in 1966 in Columbia, Missouri, as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Fish Pesticide Research Laboratory; the Columbia Environmental Research Center was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey in 1996. The U.S. Geological Survey’s staff of 130 includes 90 scientists of which one-half have advanced degrees in ecology, toxicology, biology, biochemistry, chemistry, hydrology, geology, and information technology.

Missouri

Linking evolutionary potential to extinction risk: Applications and future directions

Extinction-risk assessments play a major role in prioritizing conservation action at national and international levels. However, quantifying extinction risk is challenging, especially when including the full suite of adaptive responses to environmental change. In particular, evolutionary potential (EP), the capacity to evolve genetically based changes that increase fitness under changing conditions, has proven difficult to evaluate, limiting its inclusion in risk assessments. Theory, experiments, simulations, and field studies all highlight the importance of EP in characterizing and mitigating extinction risk. Disregarding EP can therefore result in ineffective allocation of resources and inadequate recovery planning. Fortunately, proxies for EP can be estimated from environmental, phenotypic, and genetic data. Some proxies can be incorporated into quantitative extinction-risk assessments, whereas others better inform basic conservation actions that maximize resilience to future change. Integration of EP into conservation decision-making is challenging but essential and remains an important area for innovation in applied conservation science.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Unified Ecoregions of Alaska: 2001

Unified Ecoregions of Alaska map portrays major ecosystems of the state of Alaska and neighboring portions of Canada and Russia. The word "Unified" in the title refers to the interdisciplinary, interagency, and international effort to derive this broad-scale ecosystem map. The ecoregions, as portrayed on this dataset , are large ecosystems primarily defined by climate and topography, with refinements from vegetation patterns, lithology, and surficial deposits. Ecoregions are tens of millions of acres in size and correspond to the Province level of Bailey's hierarchy (1980, 1995). A total of thirty-two ecoregion units were mapped representing the major ecosystems of Alaska. Ecoregions were mapped in their entirety, with some spanning international boundaries to include portions of Canada and Russia. These ecoregions are characterized with written descriptions, tables of environmental variables, and photographs.

Alaska

Documenting 35 years of land cover change: Lago Cachet Dos drainage, Chile

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Special Applications Science Center is monitoring temporal changes at the Colonia Glacier and Lago Cachet Dos, Northern Patagonia Icefield of southern Chile. This location is one of the newest international sites in the USGS Global Fiducial Program (GFP)—a program which provides systematic monitoring of dynamic and environmentally critical areas with high-resolution imagery (http://gfp.usgs.gov/). In 2008, Lago Cachet Dos began experiencing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) during which the entire pool of water (about 200 million cubic meters) rapidly drains from the lake and flows south-southeast through the Colonia Glacier. These catastrophic events cause massive erosion of valley-fill deposits and consequent upstream expansion of Lago Cachet Dos towards Lago Cachet Uno. Panchromatic and multispectral images for 1979, 2007, and 2014 highlight the dramatic changes that have occurred at this site over a 35-year period. The lake was smallest in 1979, when the Colonia Glacier was at its maximum extent during the study period. Between 1979 and 2007, the glacier shrank causing an increase in the surface area of the lake. The size of the lake increased substantially, from 2.98 square kilometers (km 2 ) in 1979 to 4.41 km 2 in 2014, primarily due to erosion of valley-fill deposits upstream of its northern edge by the 15 GLOFs that occurred between April 2008 and February 2014. Ongoing studies of the Colonia Glacier and Lago Cachet Dos are focused on providing real-time monitoring of Lago Cachet Dos lake levels, understanding the history of advances and retreats of the Colonia Glacier, and determining the physical mechanisms and hazards associated with the GLOFs that come from Lago Cachet Dos.

Lago Cachet Dos

Computer modelling for ecosystem service assessment

Computer models are simplified representations of the environment that allow biophysical, ecological, and/or socio-economic characteristics to be quantified and explored. Modelling approaches differ from mapping approaches (Chapter 5) as (i) they are not forcibly spatial (although many models do produce spatial outputs); (ii) they focus on understanding and quantifying the interactions between different components of social and/or environmental systems and (iii) by changing parameters within models, they are capable of exploring both alternative scenarios and internal model dynamics. When applied to the assessment of ecosystem services (ES), models are important tools which can quantify the relationships that underpin ES supply, demand and flows and, in some cases, produce maps representing these factors. Furthermore, as models can explore scenarios, trade-offs that result from different scenarios can be assessed. This chapter provides a broad overview of different types of models that have been applied to ES assessments and discusses, with examples, the ways that these models have the potential to be used in practice. In the context of ES, there are a number of ways of distinguishing between different types of models. Here, we distinguish between individual models focussing on single ES and modelling frameworks that can assess multiple ES within the framework of a single modelling tool.

Book chapter