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Sociocultural and institutional drivers and constraints to mineral supply; the meaning of scarcity in the 21st century: drivers and constraints to the supply of minerals using regional, national and global perspectives

The sociocultural dimensions of mineral supply at the outset of the 21st century are making the supply process increasingly complex. The dimensions encompass legal, financial, environmental, cultural, and global implications of mining, and are driving unprecedented change in the way minerals supply will be accomplished in the future. Minerals scarcity on a global scale is subordinate to other societal issues about mineral resources and reserves estimated to meet society's demands for decades to centuries in the future. This report reviews historical and present-day sociocultural drivers of change, and reactions of the minerals industry to these drivers. It is reflective primarily of conditions in the United States, but also uses examples from other countries. It expresses viewpoints on sociocultural drivers as seen by constituents of the minerals industry and several other communities of interest including Aboriginal peoples, non-government organizations; labor; mining-dependent communities; mining-affected communities; researchers; and government (federal, state/provincial, and local). It provides overviews of the demand for minerals in the United States, and the status of land available for mining. The report uses a case study of a metals mining project in Wisconsin to illustrate specific sociocultural drivers and constraints to minerals supply, and how these influence the minerals industry. Over the past 150 years, a progression of sociocultural movements under the headings of conservationism, environmentalism, and sustainable development have nurtured societal values that have come to influence the mineral supply process in important ways. These movements reflect a continuing tension between the demand for minerals and other resources, and the simultaneous demand for aesthetic, spiritual, ecological, cultural, and other attributes of the land. The tension is an important element in current international debates about the meaning and future of sustainable development. This report focuses on some of the social challenges to the minerals industry to supply minerals, while at the same time providing environmental protection, economic growth, and sociocultural acceptance. All these issues fall under the rubric of sustainable development. It also describes current industry responses to sustainability, including the Global Mining Initiative (2001a), an attempt to introduce major changes in global industry practices to begin the 21st century. This report complements other documents in the series on physical supply, technological advancement, and economic and policy drivers (Wilburn and others, 2001).

Open-File Report

The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence–transmission relationships

Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host–parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host–parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence–transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related ‘approaches’ that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host–parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence–transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence–transmission relationships across a diversity of host–parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.

Royal Society Open Science

A regional assessment of potential environmental hazards to and limitations on petroleum development of the Southeastern United States Atlantic continental shelf, slope, and rise, offshore North Carolina

More than 11,000 km of high-resolution seismic-reflection data, 325 km of mid-range sidescan-sonar data, and 500 km of long-range sidescan-sonar data were examined and used to construct an environmental geology map of the Continental Shelf, Slope, and Rise for the area of the U.S. Atlantic margin between lats. 32?N. and 37?N. Hardgrounds and two faults described in previous literature also are shown on the map. On the Continental Shelf, at least two faults, the Helena Banks fault and the White Oak lineament, appear to be tectonic in origin. However, a lack of historical seismicity associated with these faults indicates that they are probably not active at the present time. Hardgrounds are widely scattered but are most abundant in Onslow Bay. Although paleostream channels are common nearshore, they do not appear to be common on the central and outer shelf except off Albemarle Sound where extensive Pleistocene, Pliocene, and late Miocene channels extend across the shelf. Mobile bottom sediments are confined mainly to the shoals off Cape Romain, Cape Fear, Cape Lookout, and Cape Hatteras. Elsewhere the sand cover is thin, and older more indurated rocks are present in subcrop. No slope-instability features were noted on the Florida-Hatteras slope off North Carolina. The lack of features indicates that this slope is relatively stable. Evidence for scour by strong currents is ubiquitous on the northern Blake Plateau although deep-water reefs are sparse. The outer edge of the plateau is dominated by a major growth fault and numerous splay and antithetic faults. These faults are the product of salt tectonism in the Carolina trough and thus are not associated with seismicity. Displacements observed near the sea floor and breached diapirs offshore indicate that the main fault is still moving. Associated with the faults are collapse features that are interpreted to be caused by karst solution and cavernous porosity in Eocene and Oligocene limestones at depth. Major slumps have taken place in two large areas of the Continental Slope. Seismic-reflection profiles of the southern area, centered on the lower slope at 1at. 33?N., long. 76?W., show a 80-m-hlgh scarp in which bedding has been truncated. Rotational slump faults are present in this area on the middle and upper slope. Sidescan images show that large blocks have slid downslope from the scarp face, furrowing the bottom. High-resolution (3.5-kHz) records show that the rotational slump faults upslope are active. The association of these slumps and the scarps with salt diapirs suggests subsidence accompanying salt tectonism as the cause. Seismic-reflection records over the northern area, at about fat. 36?20'N., long. 74?40'W., show two steep scarps, each about 225 m high on the upper and middle-slope. These slump scars and an absence of Pleistocene sediments indicate that large blocks of the slope have been removed by slumping. The slope north of fat. 35?N. is highly dissected by canyons. Mid-range sidescan-sonar records suggest that the canyons are the product of mass wasting and have probably formed largely by slumping. Sediments in a wide zone on the upper rise are highly disturbed and faulted owing to salt tectonism. Twenty-six salt diapirs are mapped, as is a zone of disturbed bottom related to salt tectonism. An area of frozen bottom (clathrate) under which shallow free gas is trapped underlies the outer Blake Plateau, the slope, and the upper rise. Although the hazards of drilling into or through clathrates have not been tested, the release of gas from beneath this frozen layer may prove to be a primary hazard to exploration.

Open-File Report

Uncertainty management, spatial and temporal reasoning, and validation of intelligent environmental decision support systems

There are inherent open problems arising when developing and running Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS). During daily operation of IEDSS several open challenge problems appear. The uncertainty of data being processed is intrinsic to the environmental system, which is being monitored by several on-line sensors and off-line data. Thus, anomalous data values at data gathering level or even uncertain reasoning process at later levels such as in diagnosis or decision support or planning can lead the environmental process to unsafe critical operation states. At diagnosis level or even at decision support level or planning level, spatial reasoning or temporal reasoning or both aspects can influence the reasoning processes undertaken by the IEDSS. Most of Environmental systems must take into account the spatial relationships between the environmental goal area and the nearby environmental areas and the temporal relationships between the current state and the past states of the environmental system to state accurate and reliable assertions to be used within the diagnosis process or decision support process or planning process. Finally, a related issue is a crucial point: are really reliable and safe the decisions proposed by the IEDSS? Are we sure about the goodness and performance of proposed solutions? How can we ensure a correct evaluation of the IEDSS? Main goal of this paper is to analyse these four issues, review some possible approaches and techniques to cope with them, and study new trends for future research within the IEDSS field.

Conference Paper

Overview--Development of a geodatabase and conceptual model of the hydrogeologic units beneath Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas

Air Force Plant 4 (AFP4) and adjacent Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field (NAS–JRB) at Fort Worth, Tex., constitute a contractor-owned, government-operated facility that has been in operation since 1942. Contaminants from the 3,600-acre facility, primarily volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and metals, have entered the ground-water-flow system through leakage from waste-disposal sites and from manufacturing processes. Environmental data collected at AFP4 and NAS–JRB during 1993–2002 created the need for consolidation of the data into a comprehensive temporal and spatial geodatabase. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force Aeronautical Systems Center Environmental Management Directorate, developed a comprehensive geodatabase of temporal and spatial environmental data associated with the hydrogeologic units beneath the facility. A three-dimensional conceptual model of the hydrogeologic units integrally linked to the geodatabase was designed concurrently. Three hydrogeologic units—from land surface downward, the alluvial aquifer, the GoodlandWalnut confining unit, and the Paluxy aquifer—compose the subsurface of interest at AFP4 and NAS–JRB. The alluvial aquifer consists primarily of clay and silt with sand and gravel channel deposits that might be interconnected or interfingered. The Goodland-Walnut confining unit directly underlies the alluvial aquifer and consists of limestone, marl, shale, and clay. The Paluxy aquifer is composed of dense mudstone and fine- to coarse-grained sandstone

Texas

Challenge theme 5: Current and future needs of energy and mineral resources in the Borderlands and the effects of their development: Chapter 7 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Exploration and extraction activities related to energy and mineral resources in the Borderlands—such as coal-fired power plants, offshore drilling, and mining—can create issues that have potentially major economic and environmental implications. Resource assessments and development projects, environmental studies, and other related evaluations help to understand some of these issues, such as power plant emissions and the erosion/denudation of abandoned mine lands. Information from predictive modeling, monitoring, and environmental assessments are necessary to understand the full effects of energy and mineral exploration, development, and utilization. The exploitation of these resources can negatively affect human health and the environment, its natural resources, and its ecological services (air, water, soil, recreation, wildlife, etc.). This chapter describes the major energy and mineral issues of the Borderlands and how geologic frameworks, integrated interdisciplinary (geobiologic) investigations, and other related studies can address the anticipated increases in demands on natural resources in the region.

United States-Mexico Borderlands

Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in­-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of current distributions for new invasive exotic species.

Invasive Plant Science and Management

Effect of membrane filtration artifacts on dissolved trace element concentrations

Among environment scientists, the current and almost universally accepted definition of dissolved constituents is an operational one-only those materials which pass through a 0.45-μm membrane filter are considered to be dissolved. Detailed laboratory and field studies on Fe and Al indicate that a number of factors associated with filtration, other than just pore size, can substantially alter “dissolved” trace element concentrations; these include: filter type, filter diameter, filtration method, volume of sample processed, suspended sediment concentration, suspended sediment grain-size distribution, concentration of colloids and colloidally-associated trace elements and concentration of organic matter. As such, reported filtered-water concentrations employing the same pore size filter may not be equal. Filtration artifacts may lead to the production of chemical data that indicate seasonal or annual “dissolved” chemical trends which do not reflect actual environmental conditions. Further, the development of worldwide averages for various dissolved chemical constituents, the quantification of geochemical cycles, and the determination of short- or long-term environmental chemical trends may be subject to substantial errors, due to filtration artifacts, when data from the same or multiple sources are combined. Finally, filtration effects could have a substantial impact on various regulatory requirements.

Georgia

Recent advances in environmental flows science and water management—Innovation in the Anthropocene

The implementation of environmental flow regimes offers a promising means to protect and restore riverine, wetland and estuarine ecosystems, their critical environmental services and cultural/societal values. This Special Issue expands the scope of environmental flows and water science in theory and practice, offering 20 papers from academics, agency researchers and non‐governmental organisations, each with fresh perspectives on the science and management of environmental water allocations. Contributions confront the grand challenge for environmental flows and water management in the Anthropocene—the urgent need for innovations that will help to sustain the innate resilience of social–ecological systems under dynamic and uncertain environmental and societal futures. Basin‐scale and regional assessments of flow requirements mark a necessary advance in environmental water science in the face of rapid changes in water‐resource management activities worldwide (e.g. increases in dams, diversions, retention and reuse). Techniques for regional‐scale hydrological and ecohydrological modelling support ecological risk assessment and identification of priority flow management and river restoration actions. Changing flood–drought cycles, long‐term climatic shifts and associated effects on hydrological, thermal and water quality regimes add enormous uncertainty to the prediction of future ecological outcomes, regardless of environmental water allocations. An improved capacity to predict the trajectories of ecological change in rivers degraded by legacies of past impact interacting with current conditions and future climate change is essential. Otherwise, we risk unrealistic expectations from restoration of river and estuarine flow regimes. A more robust, dynamic and predictive approach to environmental water science is emerging. It encourages the measurement of process rates (e.g. birth rate, colonisation rate) and species traits (e.g. physiological requirements, morphological adaptations) as well as ecosystem states (e.g. species richness, assemblage structure), as the variables representing ecological responses to flow variability and environmental water allocations. Another necessary development is the incorporation of other environmental variables such as water temperature and sedimentary processes in flow–ecological response models. Based on contributions to this Special Issue, several recent compilations and the wider literature, we identify six major scientific challenges for further exploration, and seven themes for advancing the management of environmental water. We see the emerging frontier of environmental flows and water science as urgent and challenging, with numerous opportunities for reinvigorated science and methodological innovation in the expanding enterprise of environmental water linked to ecological sustainability and social well‐being.

Freshwater Biology

Development of two quantitative PCR assays for detection of several Cottus species from environmental DNA in Pacific coast watersheds of North America

We developed two quantitative PCR assays for use with environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect numerous species in the genus Cottus that are indigenous to the Pacific coast watersheds of North America. We conducted in vitro assay validations on ten Cottus species and 32 potentially co-occurring non- Cottus species. We demonstrate the efficacy of these assays by field testing eDNA samples collected from streams inhabited by Cottus . These assays will be particularly useful for detecting Cottus in habitats where one (or more) of several Cottus species could be present.

Pacific Northwest

Decision-making for managing harmful algal blooms

Cyanobacteria are a global water-quality concern because these organisms can develop into harmful blooms that affect ecologic, economic, and public health. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to develop a structured decision-making template for managing cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. This approach can help natural resource managers make decisions to manage water bodies threatened by harmful algal blooms.

New York

Estimation of urban stormwater quality

Two data-based methods for estimating urban stormwater quality have recently been made available - a planning level method developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and a nationwide regression method developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Each method uses urban stormwater water-quality constituent data collected for the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP) during 1979-83. The constituents analyzed include 10 chemical constituents - chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS), dissolved solids (DS), total nitrogen (TN), total ammonia plus nitrogen (AN), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved phosphorous (DP), total copper (CU), total lead (PB), and total zinc (ZN). The purpose of this report is to briefly compare features of the two estimation methods.

Conference Paper

Effects of noise from oil and gas development on raptors and songbirds—A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information about the potential effects of noise from oil and gas development on North American raptors, songbirds, and other small avian species. We conducted a structured search of published scientific literature to find information about noise levels produced during oil and gas development, methods for analyzing sound propagation, the effects of noise on avian species, and measures to reduce noise emissions. We follow the organization first established in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5114, in which the report sections align with standard elements of NEPA analyses. We found that oil and gas development is a common source of human-caused noise on public lands and includes noise sources such as heavy construction and drilling machinery, long-term production machinery, truck traffic, and aircraft. Common techniques for predicting potential noise include field data collection using a sound level meter, inference from previously published data, and sound propagation modeling. The effects of human-caused noise on songbirds are well researched, whereas, among raptors, only owl species have been well-studied in relation to noise. Several studies have established that noise can reduce owl hunting success because many owl species are heavily reliant on hearing prey when hunting. The effects of noise on songbirds depend on several factors. Typically, birds that rely on vocal communication for mating, predator detection, and spatial orientation, and that are less able to adjust the frequencies of their vocalizations, are more vulnerable to behavioral changes and decreased fitness in noisy areas. Techniques suggested in the literature for reducing noise emissions include artificial sound barriers, seasonal and daily timing restrictions, traffic control measures, and siting infrastructure to take advantage of natural sound barriers. Public land managers can use this report by incorporating it by reference in NEPA documentation, as supplemental information, or as a general reference to find literature or identify gaps in the literature about the effects of noise from oil and gas development on raptors and songbirds.

Scientific Investigations Report

Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular

Mercury exposure may influence fluctuating asymmetry in waterbirds

Variation in avian bilateral symmetry can be an indicator of developmental instability in response to a variety of stressors, including environmental contaminants. The authors used composite measures of fluctuating asymmetry to examine the influence of mercury concentrations in 2 tissues on fluctuating asymmetry within 4 waterbird species. Fluctuating asymmetry increased with mercury concentrations in whole blood and breast feathers of Forster's terns ( Sterna forsteri ), a species with elevated mercury concentrations. Specifically, fluctuating asymmetry in rectrix feather 1 was the most strongly correlated structural variable of those tested (wing chord, tarsus, primary feather 10, rectrix feather 6) with mercury concentrations in Forster's terns. However, for American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), black-necked stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ), and Caspian terns ( Hydroprogne caspia ), the authors found no relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and either whole-blood or breast feather mercury concentrations, even though these species had moderate to elevated mercury exposure. The results indicate that mercury contamination may act as an environmental stressor during development and feather growth and contribute to fluctuating asymmetry of some species of highly contaminated waterbirds.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment: Restoration topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are substantial management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions, and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed 10 needs (hereinafter “Needs”) identified under the Restoration topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs for improving restoration success in degraded sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (“Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 371 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Restoration topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: the development of methods to improve seeding success of native plants after fire; evaluation of short- and long-term plant responses relative to biotic and abiotic factors following restoration treatments; assessments of long-term effects on ecosystem processes following conifer removal treatments and development of decision support tools to aid in conifer management; determination of the costs of restoration treatments relative to the benefits to sage-grouse occupancy, survival, and populations; and assessments of the factors which contribute to soil degradation and development of soil enhancement methods that enhance seed germination and seedling survival while resisting nonnative plants. Needs that were not addressed well included: the development of methods for the rapid recovery of sagebrush and native herbaceous plants following wildfire and determination of whether treatments benefit sage-grouse and mitigate impacts from fires; determination of thresholds for successful restoration across a range of environmental conditions and development of decision support tools to assist with restoration effectiveness monitoring; and development and evaluation of the utility of seed transfer zones. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States

Environmental drivers in mangrove establishment and early development: A review

Mangroves have a global distribution within coastal tropical and subtropical climates, and have even expanded to some temperate locales. Where they do occur, mangroves provide a plethora of goods and services, ranging from coastal protection from storms and erosion to direct income for human societies. The mangrove literature has become rather voluminous, prompting many subdisciplines within a field that earlier in the 20th century received little focus. Much of this research has become diffuse by sheer numbers, requiring detailed syntheses to make research results widely available to resource managers. In this review, we take an inclusive approach in focusing on eco-physiological and growth constraints to the establishment and early development of mangrove seedlings in the intertidal zone. This is a critical life stage for mangroves, i.e., the period between dispersal and recruitment to the sapling stage. We begin with some of the research that has set the precedent for seedling-level eco-physiological research in mangroves, and then we focus on recent advances (circa. 1995 to present) in our understanding of temperature, carbon dioxide, salinity, light, nutrient, flooding, and specific biotic influences on seedling survival and growth. As such, we take a new approach in describing seedling response to global factors (e.g., temperature) along with site-specific factors (e.g., salinity). All variables will strongly influence the future of seedling dynamics in ways perhaps not yet documented in mature forests. Furthermore, understanding how different mangrove species can respond to global factors and regional influences is useful for diagnosing observed mortality within mangrove wetlands, managed or natural. This review provides an updated eco-physiological knowledge base for future research and reforestation activity, and for understanding important links among climate change, local physico-chemical condition, and establishment and early growth of mangrove seedlings.

Aquatic Botany