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The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report

Using acoustic Doppler velocity meters to estimate suspended sediment along the lower Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers

Lake Pepin is the largest naturally formed lake on the Mississippi River and has complex management needs to satisfy economic, environmental, and cultural demands. Lake Pepin is filling in with sediment at a rapid rate compared to conditions before settlement by European immigrants and intense agricultural cultivation. Accordingly, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has developed aggressive plans to prioritize sediment sources, understand transport mechanisms, and implement large-scale strategies to reduce sedimentation in Lake Pepin. The Minnesota River is the primary sediment source to Lake Pepin, and reductions in sediment loading from the Minnesota River are needed to reduce sedimentation in Lake Pepin. Current loading estimates were calculated from grab sampling and total suspended solids laboratory methods that greatly underestimate the actual concentrations in the rivers when compared to U.S. Geological Survey width and depth integrated sampling and laboratory methods for determining suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, with funding from the Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund and in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Lower Minnesota River Watershed District, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, collected SSCs and acoustic backscatter data from acoustic Doppler velocity meters over a 2-year period at nine sites. The purpose of the study was to improve understanding of sediment-transport processes and increase accuracy of estimating SSCs and suspended-sediment loads for the lower Minnesota River and the Mississippi River compared to traditional measures. The study results indicated that acoustic backscatter worked well in estimating SSCs at sites not regulated by locks, dams, and lakes. The results also confirmed previous studies that determined most of the suspended-sediment loading into the Mississippi River is from the Minnesota River and the largest sediment sink is Lake Pepin. Suspended-sediment loading from site to site and year to year was often variable when compared to streamflow, which has been traditionally used to estimate SSC. As a result, this study demonstrates the value in having high temporal and spatial resolution of continuous sediment monitoring from acoustic devices to help manage the sources of sediment into Lake Pepin.

Minnesota River, Mississippi River

Water-quality assessment of the Central Arizona Basins, Arizona and northern Mexico – Environmental setting and overview of water quality

The Central Arizona Basins study area in central and southern Arizona and northern Mexico is one of 60 study units that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment program. The purpose of this report is to describe the physical, chemical, and environmental characteristics that may affect water quality in the Central Arizona Basins study area and present an overview of water quality. Covering 34,700 square miles, the study area is characterized by generally north to northwestward-trending mountain ranges separated by broad, gently sloping alluvial valleys. Most of the perennial rivers and streams are in the northern part of the study area. Rivers and streams in the south are predominantly intermittent or ephemeral and flow in response to precipitation such as summer thunderstorms. Effluent-dependent streams do provide perennial flow in some reaches. The major aquifers in the study area are in the basin-fill deposits that may be as much as 12,000 feet thick. The 1990 population in the study area was about 3.45 million, and about 61 percent of the total was in Maricopa County (Phoenix and surrounding cities). Extensive population growth over the past decade has resulted in a twofold increase in urban land areas and increased municipal water use; however, agriculture remains the major water use. Seventy-three percent of all water with drawn in the study area during 1990 was used for agricultural purposes. The largest rivers in the study area-the Gila, Salt, and Verde-are perennial near their headwaters but become intermittent downstream because of impoundments and artificial diversions. As a result, the Central Arizona Basins study area is unique compared to less arid basins because the mean surface-water outflow is only 528 cubic feet per second from a total drainage area of 49,650 square miles. Peak flows in the northern part of the study area are the result of snowmelt runoff; whereas, summer thunderstorms account for the peak flows in the southern part. Ground water is the primary water supply in most of Arizona and the only source of drinking water used by communities in the southern half of the study area. Years of overpumping have caused water tables in basin fill to drop below once-perennial streams leaving streambeds dry, water too deep to pump economically, pumping of poorer quality water with depth, and earth fissures resulting from subsidence after dewatering of sediments. Natural processes-such as leaching of trace elements and major ions from geologic formations-and human activities-such as mining, agriculture, and urban development-have major effects on the quality of surface-water and ground-water resources in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Surface-water quality standards in Arizona are based on the designated use of the water such as full or partial body contact, fish consumption, aquatic and wildlife uses, and agriculture. Maintaining the biological integrity (health) of surface waters in Arizona is an important part of ensuring that these waters are suitable for designated uses. Important water-quality issues for surface water that are somewhat unique to Arizona include: (1) streamflows and riparian environments sustained by effluent from municipal wastewater-treatment plants that contains high concentrations of nutrients, potentially toxic trace elements and organic compounds, and fecal bacteria; (2) industrial, mining, agricultural, and municipal sources of contamination from Mexico; and (3) unpredictable high flows from major summer thunder storms causing stream-channel changes; high suspended-sediment concentrations and loads; sewage overflows; and breaching, erosion, and washout of landfills and mining operations. The quality of water in aquifers that are protected for drinking- water use is subject to standards that are in most cases equal to or more stringent than the primary drinking-water regulations of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The general che

Arizona

The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the damageability of assets exposed to loss. Then, applying the damageability model and the velocity, wave amplitude, and inundation models discussed in other SAFRR chapters we offer a single realistic depiction of damage. Other outcomes are of course possible for this hypothetical event. Where practical we estimate repair costs and estimate the duration required to restore the assets to their pre-tsunami condition. We identify opportunities to enhance the resiliency of the assets, either through making them less vulnerable to damage or able to recover more quickly in spite of the damage. Finally, we identify uncertainties in the modeling where research would improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of damage and loss or otherwise improve our ability to estimate the future impacts of tsunamis and inform risk-management decisions for tsunamis. However, it is certain that the kinds of damages discussed here have occurred in past tsunamis, even in developed nations, and in a sufficiently large event, will occur in California. Our uncertainties can operate in either direction, either leading to an overestimate of damage or an underestimate. Therefore, losses in an actual future tsunami could be greater than depicted here. Furthermore this evaluation is not intended to be an exhaustive depiction of what could happen in this or similar tsunamis. Other impacts could occur that are not presented here.

California

The geology, botany and chemistry of selected peat-forming environments from temperate and tropical latitudes

Peat has been studied in several geologic settings: (1) glaciated terrain in cold temperate Maine and Minnesota, U.S.A.; (2) an island in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Maine, where sea level is rising; (3) the warm temperate U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, where sea level has changed often; and (4) the tropical coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, and the tropical delta of the Batang Hari River, Sumatra, Indonesia. Most of these deposits are domed (ombrotrophic or partly ombrotrophic) bogs in which peat accumulation continued above the surface of the surrounding soil. However, the bogs of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains are comparatively not as domed, and many have almost level surfaces. In some bogs, aquatic or semi-aquatic plant materials accumulated, replaced water in the depressions, and formed a surface on which marsh or swamp vegetation could subsequently live, die, and accumulate. In others, the plant materials accumulated initially on level silt or sand surfaces supporting marshes or swamps. As the peat dome formed, plants growing on it changed from luxuriant ones near the base of the dome, where nutrients were brought into the bog by surface and ground water, to stunted ones at the top of the dome, where the raised bogs are fed by nutrient-poor precipitation. The physical and chemical changes that take place in the sequence of environments from the pond stage of deposit development, through the grassy marsh stage, through the forested swamp stage, and finally through the heath dome stage can be measured in terms of acidity and ash, volatile matter, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur and oxygen contents, as well as in the kind and distribution of trace elements. The organic and inorganic contents of the deposits relate to geomorphology, and geomorphology relates to their settings. As models of coal formation, some domed peat deposits may help in solving problems of distribution and character of ancient coal beds. But clearly not all peat deposits are precursors of coal. Most Holocene peat deposits are subject to destruction by erosion, fire and decomposition through microbial and chemical oxidation before burial. The best environments for coal precursors have biomass accumulation, a continuously rising water table within the mass, and minimum influx of clay and silt until preservation by burial. The most suitable settings for future economic coal deposits are domed bogs that accumulate thick, widespread peat having low ash and low sulfur contents. The ombrotrophic peat deposits of tropical Sarawak and Sumatra are thick and extensive, contain low-ash and low-sulfur peat, and have high heating values. They are considered to be the best tropical coal analogs because of their extent and chances of preservation; the base of the peat is below adjacent river levels, and chemical and structural conditions are favorable for accumulation.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Evaluating landscape health: Integrating societal goals and biophysical process

Evaluating landscape change requires the integration of the social and natural sciences. The social sciences contribute to articulating societal values that govern landscape change, while the natural sciences contribute to understanding the biophysical processes that are influenced by human activity and result in ecological change. Building upon Aldo Leopold's criteria for landscape health, the roles of societal values and biophysical processes in shaping the landscape are explored. A framework is developed for indicators of landscape health and integrity. Indicators of integrity are useful in measuring biological condition relative to the condition in landscapes largely unaffected by human activity, while indicators of health are useful in evaluating changes in highly modified landscapes. Integrating societal goals and biophysical processes requires identification of ecological services to be sustained within a given landscape. It also requires the proper choice of temporal and spatial scales. Societal values are based upon inter-generational concerns at regional scales (e.g. soil and ground water quality). Assessing the health and integrity of the environment at the landscape scale over a period of decades best integrates societal values with underlying biophysical processes. These principles are illustrated in two contrasting case studies: (1) the South Platte River study demonstrates the role of complex biophysical processes acting at a distance; and (2) the Kissimmee River study illustrates the critical importance of social, cultural and economic concerns in the design of remedial action plans. In both studies, however, interactions between the social and the biophysical governed the landscape outcomes. The legacy of evolution and the legacy of culture requires integration for the purpose of effectively coping with environmental change.

Journal of Environmental Management

2nd interface between ecology and land development in California

The 2nd Interface Between Ecology and Land Development Conference was held in association with Earth Day 1997, five years after the first Interface Conference. Rapid population growth in California has intensified the inevitable conflict between land development and preservation of natural ecosystems. Sustainable development requires wise use of diminishing natural resources and, where possible, restoration of damaged landscapes. These Earth Week Celebrations brought together resource managers, scientists, politicians, environmental consultants, and concerned citizens in an effort to improve the communication necessary to maintain our natural biodiversity, ecosystem processes and general quality of life. As discussed by our keynote speaker, Michael Soule, the best predictor of habitat loss is population growth and nowhere is this better illustrated than in California. As urban perimeters expand, the interface between wildlands and urban areas increases. Few problems are more vexing than how to manage the fire prone ecosystems indigenous to California at this urban interface. Today resource managers face increasing challenges of dealing with this problem and the lead-off section of the proceedings considers both the theoretical basis for making decisions related to prescribed burning and the practical application. Habitat fragmentation is an inevitable consequence of development patterns with significant impacts on animal and plant populations. Managers must be increasingly resourceful in dealing with problems of fragmentation and the often inevitable consequences, including susceptibility to invasive oganisms. One approach to dealing with fragmentation problems is through careful landplanning. California is the national leader in the integration of conservation and economics. On Earth Day 1991, Governor Pete Wilson presented an environmental agenda that promised to create between land owners and environmentalists, agreements that would guarantee the protection of -endangered species and out of this grew the pioneering initiative, known as the Natural Communities Conservation Planning (NCCP) program. California's vast expanse of seemingly endless resources has traditionally been viewed as justification for abusive land use practices. The modem day recognition that resources are finite has led to greater concern, not only for conserving what is left, but for restoring abused landscapes. Ecological restoration is a new science devoted to returning disturbed environments to a semblance of their 'pristine' state. Based on principles of 'revegetation,' restoration goes far beyond simple replanting, rather the ambition of ecological restoration is to return landscapes to functioning ecosystems and is the focus of the last section.

Open-File Report

Ammonia and aquatic ecosystems – A review of global sources, biogeochemical cycling, and effects on fish

The purpose of this review is to better understand the full life cycle and influence of ammonia from an aquatic biology perspective. While ammonia has toxic properties in water and air, it also plays a central role in the biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle and regulates mechanisms of normal and abnormal fish physiology. Additionally, as the second most synthesized chemical on Earth, ammonia contributes economic value to many sectors, particularly fertilizers, energy storage, explosives, refrigerants, and plastics. But, with so many uses, industrial N 2 -fixation effectively doubles natural reactive N concentrations in the environment. The consequence is global, with excess fixed nitrogen driving degradation of soils, water, and air; intensifying eutrophication, biodiversity loss, and climate change; and creating health risks for humans, wildlife, and fisheries. Thus, the need for ammonia research in aquatic systems is growing. In response, we prepared this review to better understand the complexities and connectedness of environmental ammonia. Even the term “ammonia” has multiple meanings. So, we have clarified the nomenclature, identified units of measurement, and summarized methods to measure ammonia in water. We then discuss ammonia in the context of the N-cycle, review its role in fish physiology and mechanisms of toxicity, and integrate the effects of human N-fixation, which continuously expands ammonia's sources and uses. Ammonia is being developed as a carbon-free energy carrier with potential to increase reactive nitrogen in the environment. With this in mind, we review the global impacts of excess reactive nitrogen and consider the current monitoring and regulatory frameworks for ammonia. The presented synthesis illustrates the complex and interactive dynamics of ammonia as a plant nutrient, energy molecule, feedstock, waste product, contaminant, N-cycle participant, regulator of animal physiology, toxicant, and agent of environmental change. Few molecules are as influential as ammonia in the management and resilience of Earth's resources.

Science of the Total Environment

Prefabricated Zero Ascend Omnispecies (ZAO) modular fish passage modules using advanced manufacturing techniques

The Zero Ascend Omnispecies (ZAO) fish passage attraction module “ZAO Attractor” is a novel system designed to facilitate upstream passage for a broad spectrum of fish species, with a particular focus on American shad and river herring (alewife and/or blueback herring). Combining the use of prefabricated, modular components with advanced manufacturing, the ZAO aims to provide a cost-effective and scalable solution for fish passage attractions across various hydropower sites. The system features a surface level entry, so fish do not need to climb. In addition, it is designed to be adjusted and repositioned to create the most effective attraction flows by managing the outflows from hydropower turbines. Budget Period 1 (BP1) focused on the design and modeling of the ZAO Attractor and demonstrated the engineering feasibility of a modular, prefabricated, hydrodynamically efficient structure with surface level entry and passage. During BP1, the hypothesis was that certain structural adaptations, such as the addition of long fins, could direct turbine outflows to create a desirable downstream flow. Simulations, however, were inconclusive, revealing the complex nature of fish preferences for hydraulic conditions. It was discovered that there were limited published studies on the direct correlation between quantified flow patterns and fish attraction, emphasizing the need for controlled studies to observe and measure these effects. In Budget Period 2 (BP2), controlled studies with live fish were prioritized to address these complexities. A partially scaled ZAO Attractor was evaluated in laboratory conditions using native river water to assess its capability to attract and guide fish. Despite challenges with flume flow conditions and the impact of flume dimensions on flow directionality and velocity, the studies provided insights into fish behavior and preferences, particularly the requirement for a consistent flow stream for migration cues. Adjustments to the fin structure demonstrated potential effectiveness in guiding fish toward the module. However, the hydraulic conditions within the flume environment did not accurately reflect typical in-river scenarios, therefore the results were inconclusive with respect to the optimal system configuration for in-river use. In the future, conducting comprehensive field studies can enhance understanding of the interactions between fish behavior and flow conditions created by the ZAO Attractor. Additionally, a design review is advised, particularly regarding the load scenarios throughout the seasons and positioning of the ZAO Attractor. These studies should continue to refine the design to achieve its intended benefits: economical and effective fish attraction and passage that can be adapted to specific site conditions while allowing for continued energy generation at sites up for re-licensure and adding hydropower generation to previously untapped resources in non-powered dams and new stream reaches. In conclusion, the ZAO fish passage attraction module presents a promising approach to fish passage at hydropower stations, with the potential to balance environmental concerns with renewable energy development. However, further field validation and optimization are necessary to ensure its effectiveness and practicality in real-world applications.

Final Technical Report

Oil, biological communities and contingency planning

The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 mandates the inclusion of a fish and wildlife response plan in the National Contingency Plan (NCP) and the creation of Area Committees that must develop an Area Contingency Plan (ACP). Area Contingency Plans must include a detailed annex containing a Fish and Wildlife and Sensitive Environments Plan. Tank vessels, offshore facilities, and certain onshore facilities must have response plans consistent with the requirements of the NCP and the ACP. New regulations to supersede the Type A and B procedures of the Natural Resources Damage Assessment Regulations are being developed for oil spills. Currently, four assessment methods have been proposed: (1) Type A, (2) comprehensive (Type B), (3) intermediate (between types A and B), and (4) compensation tables. The Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund is approaching its ceiling of $1 billion, but only $50 million has been appropriated. Effective biological contingency planning requires extensive knowledge of (1) the environmental fate of petroleum, (2) the effects of petroleum on organisms, (3) the existing biological resources, and (4) the establishment of a system of biological priorities. The characteristics and fate of petroleum and the biological effects of petroleum are reviewed. Assessment of biological resources includes plant and animal distributions, important habitat, endangered or threatened species, and economic considerations. The establishment by Area Committees of priorities for environmental protection, injury assessment, and restoration will promote efficient spill response. Three special issues are discussed: (1) improving our ability to restore natural resources, (2) the potential role of biological diversity in spill response planning, and (3) planning for animal rehabilitation.

Book chapter

Critical considerations for communicating environmental DNA science

The economic and methodological efficiencies of environmental DNA (eDNA) based survey approaches provide an unprecedented opportunity to assess and monitor aquatic environments. However, instances of inadequate communication from the scientific community about confidence levels, knowledge gaps, reliability, and appropriate parameters of eDNA-based methods have hindered their uptake in environmental monitoring programs and, in some cases, has created misperceptions or doubts in the management community. To help remedy this situation, scientists convened a session at the Second National Marine eDNA Workshop to discuss strategies for improving communications with managers. These include articulating the readiness of different eDNA applications, highlighting the strengths and limitations of eDNA tools for various applications or use cases, communicating uncertainties associated with specified uses transparently, and avoiding the exaggeration of exploratory and preliminary findings. Several key messages regarding implementation, limitations, and relationship to existing methods were prioritized. To be inclusive of the diverse managers, practitioners, and researchers, we and the other workshop participants propose the development of communication workflow plans, using RACI (Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed) charts to clarify the roles of all pertinent individuals and parties and to minimize the chance for miscommunications. We also propose developing decision support tools such as Structured Decision-Making (SDM) to help balance the benefits of eDNA sampling with the inherent uncertainty, and developing an eDNA readiness scale to articulate the technological readiness of eDNA approaches for specific applications. These strategies will increase clarity and consistency regarding our understanding of the utility of eDNA-based methods, improve transparency, foster a common vision for confidently applying eDNA approaches, and enhance their benefit to the monitoring and assessment community.

Environmental DNA

Potential for co-production of lithium and geothermal resources in the Gulf Coast

Lithium brine extractions and geothermal resource developments often are not economically viable as standalone projects, but they May become cost effective when the potential for both resources exist within the same reservoir. Subsurface datasets were analyzed to identify areas in the U.S. Gulf Coast region with potential for lithium brine and geothermal heat recovery. Temperature, lithium brine content, and reservoir quality data for thirty-four depositional units were evaluated using spatial analysis to interpret high-grade areas where both resources likely coexist. For sedimentary geothermal systems, potential resource areas are sorted by resource grade: as low temperature (<90°C, direct use potential), moderate temperature (90–150°C, direct use and electricity generation), and high temperature (>150°C, primarily electricity generation). Lithium resources were defined by Li lithium brine concentrations in parts per million (ppm): low potential (<100ppm), moderate potential (100–200ppm), and high potential (>200ppm). Reservoir quality affects the viability of both resources and is evaluated using interpreted lithofacies that describe the depositional environments of each unit. Using the results, a series of play fairway analysis maps were generated to support regional evaluations of lithium and geothermal resources and to identify areas of interest for detailed, prospect-scale studies.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Managing the threat of infectious disease in fisheries and aquaculture using structured decision making

Fisheries and aquaculture provide food and economic security, especially in the developing world, but both face challenges from infectious disease. Here, we consider management of disease issues from a structured decision-making perspective to examine how infectious disease can threaten seafood production and influence management decisions. For both wild fisheries and aquaculture, disease-management objectives generally aim to mitigate the severity and economic burden of outbreaks. General management strategies include manipulating host densities, reducing system connectivity, conserving or improving habitat, and implementing direct treatments or some other biological interventions. To inform decisions, mathematical models can be used to explore disease dynamics and to forecast the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions. Developing and implementing disease-management strategies also involve considering uncertainties and balancing competing stakeholder interests and risk tolerances. We conclude by outlining several steps for applying structured decision making that are broadly useful to decision makers facing issues related to disease.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Observations on the geology and petroleum potential of the Cold Bay-False Pass area, Alaska Peninsula

Upper Jurassic strata in the Black Hills area consist mainly of fossiliferous, tightly cemented, gently folded sandstone deposited in a shallow marine environment. Upper Cretaceous strata on Sanak Island are strongly deformed and show structural features of broken formations similar to those observed in the Franciscan assemblage of California. Rocks exposed on Sanak Island do not crop out on the peninsular mainland or on Unimak Island, and probably make up the acoustic and economic basement of nearby Sanak basin. Tertiary sedimentary rocks on the outermost part of the Alaska Peninsula consist of Oligocene, Miocene, and lower Pliocene volcaniclastic sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate deposited in nonmarine and very shallow marine environments. Interbedded airfall and ash-flow tuff deposits indicate active volcanism during Oligocene time. Locally, Oligocene strata are intruded by quartz diorite plutons of probable Miocene age. Reservoir properties of Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks are generally poor due to alteration of chemically unstable volcanic rock fragments. Igneous intrusions have further reduced porosity and permeability by silicification of sandstone. Organic-rich source rocks for petroleum generation are not abundant in Neogene strata. Upper Jurassic rocks in the Black Hills area have total organic carbon contents of less than 0.5 percent. Deep sediment-filled basins on the Shumagin Shelf probably contain more source rocks than onshore correlatives, but reservoir quality is not likely to be better than in onshore outcrops. The absence of well-developed folds in most Tertiary rocks, both onshore and in nearby offshore basins, reduces the possibility of hydrocarbon entrapment in anticlines.

Open-File Report

Counting at low concentrations: the statistical challenges of verifying ballast water discharge standards

Discharge from the ballast tanks of ships is one of the primary vectors of nonindigenous species in marine environments. To mitigate this environmental and economic threat, international, national, and state entities are establishing regulations to limit the concentration of living organisms that may be discharged from the ballast tanks of ships. The proposed discharge standards have ranged from zero detectable organisms to <10 organisms/m 3 . If standard sampling methods are used, verifying whether ballast discharge complies with these stringent standards will be challenging due to the inherent stochasticity of sampling. Furthermore, at low concentrations, very large volumes of water must be sampled to find enough organisms to accurately estimate concentration. Despite these challenges, adequate sampling protocols comprise a critical aspect of establishing standards because they help define the actual risk level associated with a standard. A standard that appears very stringent may be effectively lax if it is paired with an inadequate sampling protocol. We describe some of the statistical issues associated with sampling at low concentrations to help regulators understand the uncertainties of sampling as well as to inform the development of sampling protocols that ensure discharge standards are adequately implemented.

Ecological Applications

Are we running out of water?

Water supplies are not running out, but time is getting short to stem waste of water and destructive exploitation of the environment before harm is done that may be irreparable. Most of the world's water is oceanic brine. Of the waters on the land, most is frozen in Antarctica and Greenland. Only a small part of continental water is available for use and management. The discharge of rivers to the sea is a close measure of the availability of liquid water, but ground-water reservoirs have important functions as inexpensive equalizers of water supply. Soil moisture is a major factor in the water economy, and its function usually is overlooked in assessments of water use and future water demand. Despite outcries of water shortage, the principal use of water in advanced countries is as a medium for waste disposal. In reality, despite regional maldistribution of water, United States supplies are adequate, given rational management. Also, contrary to common belief, water pollution is primarily a problem of economics, not of health. A paramount problem in most parts of the world is the shortage of water development and management facilities, not a shortage of water. The International Hydrological Decade is a program to awaken people everywhere to the crucial importance of water in man's future and to promote rational approach to water problems.

Circular

Central Colorado Assessment Project - Application of integrated geologic, geochemical, biologic, and mineral resource studies

Central Colorado is one of the fastest-growing regions in the Western United States. Population along the Front Range increased more than 30 percent between 1990 and 2000 (http://www.demographia.com/db-metro3newworld.htm) with some counties within the study area, such as Park County, experiencing greater than 100-percent growth (http://www.censusscope.org/us/s8/rank_popl_growth.html). This growth has caused tremendous demand for natural resources and has created challenging land-management issues related to the interface between wilderness and urban expansion. Management of this wilderness/urban interface will benefit from current digital geoscience information collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Central Colorado Assessment Project that began in 2003. Approximately 20,800 square miles (53,800 km2) of land divided almost equally between the public and private sectors were part of the assessment. The study area includes much of the Colorado Mineral Belt, a northeast-trending zone that contains 30 economically significant metal deposits. Historically, the area provided much of Colorado's metal production. The only active gold and molybdenum mines in Colorado lie within the study area. Recently, metal and uranium exploration activity has increased sharply in response to record prices for metals and uranium. This further underscores the need for up-to-date geoscience information presented in compatible GIS databases to facilitate rapid land-management decisions. Cooperative studies by USDA Forest Service, National Park Service supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program (MRP), and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Programs (NCGMP) contributed to the mineral-resource assessment and included regional geologic mapping at the scale 1:100,000, collection and geochemical studies of stream sediments, surface water, and bedrock samples, macroinvertebrate and biofilm studies in the riparian environment, remote-sensing studies, and geochronology. Geoscience information available as GIS layers has improved understanding of the distribution of metallic, industrial, and aggregate resources, location of areas that have potential for their discovery or development, helped to understand the relation of tectonics, magmatism, and paleohydrology to the genesis of the metal deposits in the region, and provided insight on the geochemical and environmental effects that historical mining and natural, mineralized rock exposures have on surface water, ground water, and aquatic life.

Fact Sheet

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Techniques and Methods