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A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record

A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data were combined and formatted, with a weighted average fatality figure used where more than one source reports an event; the former two databases were weighted twice as strongly as the latter two. More fatal incidents are contained within our database than similar previous works; approximately 46% of the fatal incidents are listed in only one of the four sources, and fewer than 10% are in all four. 278,880 fatalities are recorded in the database, resultant from 533 fatal incidents. The fatality count is dominated by a handful of disasters, though the majority of fatal incidents have caused fewer than ten fatalities. Number and empirical probability of fatalities are broadly correlated with VEI, but are more strongly influenced by population density around volcanoes and the occurrence and extent of lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic density currents, which have caused 50% of fatalities. Indonesia, the Philippines, and the West Indies dominate the spatial distribution of fatalities, and there is some negative correlation between regional development and number of fatalities. With the largest disasters removed, over 90% of fatalities occurred between 5 km and 30 km from volcanoes, though the most devastating eruptions impacted far beyond these distances. A new measure, the Volcano Fatality Index, is defined to explore temporal changes in societal vulnerability to volcanic hazards. The measure incorporates population growth and recording improvements with the fatality data, and shows prima facie evidence that vulnerability to volcanic hazards has fallen during the last two centuries. Results and interpretations are limited in scope by the underlying fatalities data, which are affected by under-recording, uncertainty, and bias. Attempts have been made to estimate the extent of these issues, and to remove their effects where possible. The data analysed here are provided as supplementary material. An updated version of the Smithsonian fatality database fully integrated with this database will be publicly available in the near future and subsequently incorporate new data.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Challenge theme 6: Natural hazard risks in the Borderlands: Chapter 8 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and debris flows, wildfires, hurricanes, and intense storm-induced flash floods threaten communities to varying degrees all along the United States–Mexican border. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with Federal, State, and local agencies to minimize the effects of natural hazards by providing timely, unbiased science information to emergency response officials, resource managers, and the public to help reduce property damage, injury, and loss of life. The USGS often mobilizes response efforts during and after a natural hazard event to provide technical and scientific counsel on recovery and response, and it has a long history of deploying emergency response teams to major disasters in both domestic and international locations. This chapter describes the challenges of natural hazards in the United States–Mexican border region and the capabilities of the USGS in the fields of hazard research, monitoring, and assessment, as well as preventative mitigation and post-disaster response.

United States-Mexico Borderlands

Estuarine bed-sediment-quality data collected in New Jersey and New York after Hurricane Sandy, 2013

This report describes a reconnaissance study of estuarine bed-sediment quality conducted June–October 2013 in New Jersey and New York after Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 to assess the extent of contamination and the potential long-term human and ecological impacts of the storm. The study, funded through the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 (PL 113-2), was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. In addition to presenting the bed-sediment-quality data, the report describes the study design, documents the methods of sample collection and analysis, and discusses the steps taken to assure the quality of the data. Bed-sediment samples were collected from June to October 2013 from 167 estuarine sites extending from Cape May, New Jersey, to the New York Harbor and the eastern end of Long Island. Each sampling location and study region was characterized by using geographic information to identify potential contaminant sources. Characterizations included land cover, locations and types of businesses (industrial, financial, and others), spills (sewage, chemical, and others), bulk storage facilities, effluent discharges within 2 kilometers of the sampling point, and discharges within inundated and non-inundated regions near the sampling location. Samples were analyzed for particle size, total organic carbon, metals and trace elements, semivolatile organic compounds, wastewater compounds, hormones, and sediment toxicity. Samples were also screened using x-ray fluorescence, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and x-ray diffraction. In addition, bioassays for endocrine disruptors and protein phosphatase 2A inhibition were conducted. The study was designed to provide the data needed to understand the extent and sources of contamination resulting from Hurricane Sandy, to compare the chemistry and toxicity of estuarine bed sediments before and after the storm, and to evaluate the usefulness of rapid screening and bioassay approaches in disaster settings.

New Jersey, New York

Mobile Response Team Saves Lives in Volcano Crises

The world's only volcano crisis response team, organized and operated by the USGS, can be quickly mobilized to assess and monitor hazards at volcanoes threatening to erupt. Since 1986, the team has responded to more than a dozen volcano crises as part of the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), a cooperative effort with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the U.S. Agency for International Development. The work of USGS scientists with VDAP has helped save countless lives, and the valuable lessons learned are being used to reduce risks from volcano hazards in the United States.

Fact Sheet

Geospatial Information Response Team

Extreme emergency events of national significance that include manmade and natural disasters seem to have become more frequent during the past two decades. The Nation is becoming more resilient to these emergencies through better preparedness, reduced duplication, and establishing better communications so every response and recovery effort saves lives and mitigates the long-term social and economic impacts on the Nation. The National Response Framework (NRF) (http://www.fema.gov/NRF) was developed to provide the guiding principles that enable all response partners to prepare for and provide a unified national response to disasters and emergencies. The NRF provides five key principles for better preparation, coordination, and response: 1) engaged partnerships, 2) a tiered response, 3) scalable, flexible, and adaptable operations, 4) unity of effort, and 5) readiness to act. The NRF also describes how communities, tribes, States, Federal Government, privatesector, and non-governmental partners apply these principles for a coordinated, effective national response. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has adopted the NRF doctrine by establishing several earth-sciences, discipline-level teams to ensure that USGS science, data, and individual expertise are readily available during emergencies. The Geospatial Information Response Team (GIRT) is one of these teams. The USGS established the GIRT to facilitate the effective collection, storage, and dissemination of geospatial data information and products during an emergency. The GIRT ensures that timely geospatial data are available for use by emergency responders, land and resource managers, and for scientific analysis. In an emergency and response capacity, the GIRT is responsible for establishing procedures for geospatial data acquisition, processing, and archiving; discovery, access, and delivery of data; anticipating geospatial needs; and providing coordinated products and services utilizing the USGS' exceptional pool of geospatial experts and equipment.

Fact Sheet

United States Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Response

The primary goal of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Response is to ensure that the disaster response community has access to timely, accurate, and relevant geospatial products, imagery, and services during and after an emergency event. To accomplish this goal, products and services provided by the National Geospatial Program (NGP) and Land Remote Sensing (LRS) Program serve as a geospatial framework for mapping activities of the emergency response community. Post-event imagery and analysis can provide important and timely information about the extent and severity of an event. USGS Natural Hazards Response will also support the coordination of remotely sensed data acquisitions, image distribution, and authoritative geospatial information production as required for use in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery operations.

Fact Sheet

Landsat 9

Landsat 9 is a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey that will continue the Landsat program’s critical role of repeat global observations for monitoring, understanding, and managing Earth’s natural resources. Since 1972, Landsat data have provided a unique resource for those who work in agriculture, geology, forestry, regional planning, education, mapping, and global-change research. Landsat images have also proved invaluable to the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters, supporting emergency response and disaster relief to save lives. With the addition of Landsat 9, the Landsat program’s record of land imaging will be extended to over half a century.

Fact Sheet

Flood damage costs beyond buildings—A Lake Champlain case study

Introduction Floods account for more than 75 percent of Federal disaster declarations and lead other natural disasters in economic costs. Early-warning systems have lowered flood-related fatalities, but costs continue to rise as flood-prone areas continue to be urbanized (U.S. Geological Survey, 2006). A Lake Champlain case study shows that at moderate flood heights, the economic costs of non-structural damages or losses—such as temporary lodging, residential debris removal, commercial revenue losses, and road repair—can be greater than economic damages to buildings. For unprecedented flood heights, non-structural damages can still total more than 10 percent of structural damage costs.

New York, Vermont

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Missouri’s economy

Introduction Because of its geography, Missouri is frequently subject to natural disasters. Ice storms, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flooding are all common occurrences. Since 1990, Missouri has received 40 Federal major disaster declarations. Floods and droughts severely affect the State’s agriculture, which is a leading industry. Another potential major hazard is the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ), located in southeastern Missouri. Because Missouri is a major producer of lead, manufacturing and mining are very important to the State’s economy, as are restoring and reclaiming lands damaged by historical mining activities. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Missouri

A history of flooding in the Red River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one of the principal Federal agencies responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources data, works with other Federal, State, local, tribal, and academic entities to ensure that accurate and timely data are available for making decisions regarding public welfare and property during natural disasters and to increase public awareness of the hazards that occur with such disasters. The Red River of the North Basin has a history of flooding and this poster is designed to increase public awareness of that history and of the factors that contribute to flooding.

Red River Basin

June 2002 floods in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota

The Red River of the North is a complex river system in the north-central plains of the United States. The river continues to affect the people and property within its basin. During June of 2002, major flooding occurred for the third time in 5 years in the Red River of the North Basin, especially on tributaries in northwestern Minnesota. The worst damage occurred in Roseau, Minn., where about 95 percent of the town was inundated. Extensive damage to roads, bridges, and crops occurred throughout the flooded area in northwestern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota. Roseau County, Minn., was designated a major disaster area on June 14, 2002, by President Bush and later twelve more counties were added to the disaster declaration. Unlike the 1997 floods, which were the result of record-high, region-wide snowpacks and a late spring blizzard, the June 2002 floods were the result of heavy rainfall that swept across the region on June 9-10 and again on June 22-24, 2002. Flooding in the Red River of the North Basin commonly is caused by spring snowmelt, and the severity of the flooding is affected by (1) substantial precipitation in the fall that produces high levels of soil moisture; (2) above-normal snowfall in the winter; (3) moist, frozen ground that prohibits infiltration of moisture; (4) a late spring thaw; (5) above-normal precipitation during spring thaw; and (6) ice jams (temporary dams of ice) on rivers and streams. Flooding during June 2002, however, was not caused by most factors usually associated with major flooding in the Red River Basin. In fact, precipitation had been below normal since late last summer and as of June 1, 2002, the flooded area was in a moderate drought based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one of the principal Federal agencies responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources data, works with other Federal, State, and local agencies to ensure that accurate and timely data are available for making decisions regarding the public's welfare (a listing of cooperators in the Red River Basin is given at the end of this report). This report presents preliminary meteorologic data provided by the National Weather Service, Grand Forks Office and water-resources 2002 flood data that were obtained from selected streamflow-gaging stations located in the Red River of the North Basin (fig. 1). Historical peak stages and peak discharges and the June 2002 peak stages, peak discharges, and recurrence intervals are shown in table 1. The streamflow-gaging stations are listed in downstream order by station number, and station locations are shown in figure 1. The June 2002 peak stages and peak discharges given in this preliminary report may be revised as site surveys are completed and additional field data are reviewed in the upcoming months. The peak discharges are used to determine the probability, often expressed in recurrence intervals, that a given discharge will be exceeded in the future. For example, a flood that has a 1-percent chance of exceedance in any given year would, on the long-term average, be expected to occur only about once a century; therefore, the flood would be termed a "100-year flood." However, the chance of such a flood occurring in any given year is 1 percent. Thus, a 100-year flood can occur in successive years at the same location. In some instances, recurrence interval estimates can be based on periods of regulated flow or made with historic adjustments when historic data are available.

Minnesota, North Dakota

Flood of April 2-3, 2005, Neversink River Basin, New York

Heavy rain on April 2-3, 2005 produced rainfall amounts of 3 inches to almost 6 inches within a 36-hour period throughout the Delaware River basin. Major flooding occurred in the East and West Branches of the Delaware River and their tributaries, the main stem of the Delaware River and the Neversink River, a major tributary to the Delaware River. The resultant flooding damaged hundreds of homes, caused millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure in Orange and Sullivan Counties, and forced more than 1,000 residents to evacuate their homes. A total of 20 New York counties were declared Federal disaster areas. Some of the most extensive flooding occurred along the Neversink and Delaware Rivers in Orange and Sullivan Counties, New York. Disaster recovery assistance from the April 2005 flooding in New York stood at almost $35 million in 2005, at which time more than 3,400 New Yorkers had registered for Federal aid. All U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations on the Neversink River below the Neversink Reservoir recorded peak water-surface elevations higher than those recorded during the September 2004 flooding. Peak water-surface elevations at some study sites on the Neversink River exceeded the 500-year flood elevation as documented in flood-insurance studies by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Flood peaks at some long-term U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations were the highest ever recorded. Several U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations on the Delaware River also recorded peak water-surface elevations that exceeded those recorded during the September 2004 flooding.

Open-File Report

Flood of April 2-3, 2005, Esopus Creek Basin, New York

On April 2-3, 2005, heavy rain moved into southern New York and delivered rainfall amounts that ranged from about 2 in. to almost 6 in. within a 36-hour period. Significant flooding occurred on many small streams and tributaries in the area, and extensive flooding occurred on the Esopus and Roundout Creeks in Ulster and Greene Counties, New York. The flooding damaged many homes, caused millions of dollars worth of damage, and forced hundreds of residents to evacuate their homes. A total of 20 New York counties were declared Federal disaster areas. Disaster recovery assistance for those people affected stands at almost $35 million, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, as more than 3,400 New Yorkers registered for Federal aid. U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations on the Esopus Creek above the Ashokan Reservoir at Allaben, N.Y., and below the Ashokan Reservoir at Mount Marion, N.Y., each recorded a new record maximum water-surface elevation and discharge for the respective periods of record as a result of this storm. The peak water-surface elevation and discharge recorded during the April 2-3, 2005, storm at the U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging station on the Esopus Creek at Cold Brook, N.Y. were the third highest elevation and discharge since the station was put into operation in 1914. Most of the study sites along the Esopus Creek indicated water-surface elevations near the 50-year flood elevations, as documented in flood-insurance studies by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Open-File Report

Flood of May 2006 in New Hampshire

From May 13-17, 2006, central and southern New Hampshire experienced severe flooding caused by as much as 14 inches of rainfall in the region. As a result of the flood damage, a presidential disaster declaration was made on May 25, 2006, for seven counties-Rockingham, Hillsborough, Strafford, Merrimack, Belknap, Carroll, and Grafton. Following the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative investigation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, determined the peak stages, peak discharges, and recurrence-interval estimates of the May 2006 flood at 65 streamgages in the counties where the disaster declaration was made. Data from flood-insurance studies published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency also were compiled for each streamgage location for comparison purposes. The peak discharges during the May 2006 flood were the largest ever recorded at 14 long-term (more than 10 years of record) streamgages in New Hampshire. In addition, peak discharges equaled or exceeded a 100-year recurrence interval at 14 streamgages and equaled or exceeded a 50-year recurrence interval at 22 streamgages. The most severe flooding occurred in Rockingham, Strafford, Merrimack, and eastern and northern Hillsborough Counties.

Open-File Report

Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is to reduce this time gap to more rapidly and effectively mobilize response. We present here a procedure to rapidly and approximately ascertain the economic impact immediately following a large earthquake anywhere in the world. In principle, the approach presented is similar to the empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed and implemented by Jaiswal and others (2009). In order to estimate economic losses, we need an assessment of the economic exposure at various levels of shaking intensity. The economic value of all the physical assets exposed at different locations in a given area is generally not known and extremely difficult to compile at a global scale. In the absence of such a dataset, we first estimate the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exposed at each shaking intensity by multiplying the per-capita GDP of the country by the total population exposed at that shaking intensity level. We then scale the total GDP estimated at each intensity by an exposure correction factor, which is a multiplying factor to account for the disparity between wealth and/or economic assets to the annual GDP. The economic exposure obtained using this procedure is thus a proxy estimate for the economic value of the actual inventory that is exposed to the earthquake. The economic loss ratio, defined in terms of a country-specific lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity, is derived and calibrated against the losses from past earthquakes. This report describes the development of a country or region-specific economic loss ratio model using economic loss data available for global earthquakes from 1980 to 2007. The proposed model is a potential candidate for directly estimating economic losses within the currently-operating PAGER system. PAGER's other loss models use indirect methods that require substantially more data (such as building/asset inventories, vulnerabilities, and the asset values exposed at the time of earthquake) to implement on a global basis and will thus take more time to develop and implement within the PAGER system.

Open-File Report

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and products that effectively deliver disaster preparedness messaging to one group of people who are not usually interested in disaster preparedness—those ages 18 to 34.

Open-File Report

Use of satellite images to determine surface-water cover during the flood event of September 13, 2013, in Lyons and western Longmont, Colorado

The flooding that occurred in north-central Colorado in 2013 was some of the most destructive in the state’s history. Following a summer of drought and wildfires, a wet weather system stalled over the Front Range area from Fort Collins in the north to Colorado Springs in the south, including the cities of Lyons and Longmont. This weather system produced rainfall amounts that greatly exceeded historical highs. The Colorado Office of Emergency Management reported at least eight deaths. More than 11,000 people were evacuated from their homes, and the flooding caused an estimated $2 billion dollars in damages. On September 14, 2013, President Barack Obama issued a major disaster declaration for 15 Colorado counties affected by the severe weather and related damage. To support local, State, and Federal disaster response coordination efforts in Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a geospatial product to identify surface-water cover from Lyons to western Longmont. This information was derived from September 13, 2013 WorldView-2 multispectral imagery at a spatial resolution of 3 meters (m). These data were orthocorrected and pan-sharpened. Three spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, and NDTI) that were computed from this processed imagery were used to help determine the extent of the surface-water cover. The result was converted to a vector format. This surface-water cover dataset was created as a timely representation of post-flood ground conditions to support response efforts. This dataset and all processed imagery and derived products were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hddsexplorer.usgs.gov/uplift/hdds/ ) for distribution to those responding to the flood event.

Colorado

U.S. Geological Survey 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption response in Hawai'i—After-action review

The 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption lasted 107 days, and now ranks as the most destructive event at Kilauea since 1790, and as one of the most costly volcanic disasters in U.S. history. Multiple simultaneous hazard events unfolded, including sustained seismic activity leading to collapse at the summit of Halema'uma'u crater and severe damage to the HVO facility, with additional eruption of lava in the Kīlauea Lower East Rift Zone that progressively grew to a total of 24 fissure openings. In response to the complex and uncertain nature of the eruption, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team activities tended to coalesce around several interrelated core functional areas: science operations, emergency management and administration, and external communications. Upon cessation of the eruption, the USGS Hazard Response Executive Committee charged the Alaska Regional Office to lead an After-Action Review team, which focused on two basic questions: (1) what went well, and why?; and (2) what can be improved, and how? The purpose of the After-Action Review is to identify priorities for programmatic or policy improvements that the USGS can feasibly implement to advance strategic preparation for future disasters, and thereby reduce public vulnerabilities. Specifically, the review is intended to help USGS respond even better to the next eruption in Hawai'i or elsewhere by advancing any of the following goals: Design better planning scenarios; Enhance response team effectiveness; Assist local decision makers; Promote new areas of strategic research; and Streamline administrative, finance, and Incident Management Team support functions during a crisis to secure continuity of operations and essential records management.

Hawaii