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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS1994

Nested-model approach to investigate climate change

Determination of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in mountainous regions is critical for assessing the effects of climate variability on water resources in these regions. Potential effects of climate change on water resources in the Gunnison River basin of southwestern Colorado currently are being studied using a nested-model approach to disaggregate large-scale general circulation model output to account for smaller-scale processes. This paper presents a disaggregation technique in which scenarios of possible climate change will be developed by nesting a global general circulation model, a mesoscale climate model, a local orographic precipitation model, and a watershed model.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2022

Integrating climate-informed planning into State Wildlife Action Plans in the north central United States

State fish and wildlife agencies are required to submit a State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP) every 10 years to be eligible for grants through the State Wildlife Grant Program. With the next round of revisions due in 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center is evaluating how to best support states with further integrating climate-informed planning in their SWAPs. Here, we summarize how states in the North Central region, which includes Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, addressed adaptation planning in their 2015 SWAPs. We review climate adaptation considerations in required SWAP elements one through five, including species, habitats, threats, conservation actions, and conservation monitoring, respectively. We also include a list of potential strategies that the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center could use to support states in the North Central region with further advancing the integration of climate informed planning in ongoing and future SWAP revisions. These strategies were primarily identified during meetings in 2021 with six of seven state fish and wildlife agencies in the North Central region where we discussed their priority needs relating to climate-informed planning. Our hope is that these strategies will enhance existing efforts in the region to advance the integration of climate change in conservation planning.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗
USGS2015

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. While there has been long-standing concern over impacts of 5 physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is also increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, USA, we examined the effects of 10 years of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities, and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical 10 disturbance (>10 years of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increased cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects 15 on lichens. While the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed by the climate treatments used in our study.

PNAS↗
USGS2023

Construction and modification of debris-flow alluvial fans as captured in the geomorphic and sedimentary record: Examples from the western Sangre de Cristo Mountains, south-central Colorado

Debris-flow alluvial fans are iconic features of dynamic landscapes and are hypothesized to record tectonic and climatic change. Here, we highlight their complex formation and evolution through an exemplary suite of Quaternary debris-flow alluvial fans emanating from the western range front of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in south-central Colorado, USA. To evaluate the constructive and modifying processes that produce fan form and the associated sedimentary signatures, we applied a combined geomorphologic and sedimentologic approach using sedimentary facies analysis, soils mapping, high-resolution topographic data, and luminescence geochronology to document timing of fan construction and modification. We explored two subsets of fans in the study area: a southern set sourced from the extensively glaciated drainages of the Blanca Peak massif, and a northern set from the unglaciated drainages south of Great Sand Dunes National Park. Both sets of fans have: (1) active and successively abandoned surfaces that show evolving degradation of primary features through modification by secondary processes, (2) associated facies that display distinct characteristics representative of primary depositional and secondary modifying sedimentary processes, and (3) evidence of primary debris flow with subsequent modification by secondary processes. We found that surface geomorphology and facies assemblages in exposed alluvial-fan deposits represent sediment transport processes on both active and abandoned lobes. The link between fan surface morphologies and the sedimentary facies of their deposits provides a basis for an evolutionary process–based interpretation of debris-flow alluvial-fan geomorphology and provides a better understanding of complexities in buried paleosurfaces (intraformational progressive unconformities), surficial deformation, and landform development as recorded in debris-flow fan deposits in the sedimentary record.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Vulnerability of different Colorado Plateau land types to drivers of change

Public lands are challenged by a range of pressures—changing climate, increasing visitation, resource extraction—and their effects can span spatial scales, often crossing land management jurisdictional boundaries. Research approaches which explicitly span jurisdictions can support strategies to contend with regional pressures. We assess management-relevant drivers of change—aridification, livestock grazing, invasive species, surface disturbance, and fire—across a patchwork of land management units and agencies on the Colorado Plateau, focusing on southeastern Utah, USA. We use vulnerability analysis, first evaluating exposure to drivers across the landscape, then quantifying sensitivity to each driver across different land types, defined by mapped Ecological Site Groups, a system for classifying landscapes according to physical factors including climate, soils, and topographic setting. We address the questions: 1) how are drivers spatially distributed across the study region; and, 2) based on exposure and sensitivity, are certain land types more vulnerable to these drivers? We find that the study region has high exposure and sensitivity—and thus high vulnerability—to aridification and grazing, but low exposure and vulnerability to other drivers. Although more sensitive land types were not generally more exposed, identifying which areas are most sensitive can guide adaptive measures, like where new uses or disturbances would be least harmful and which areas could be prioritized for restoration. The method we demonstrate is a flexible tool for assessing landscape-scale impacts, is built on nationally available datasets, and can be tailored to different datasets and sensitivity metrics.

Utah↗
USGS2022

Multiple resource limitation of dryland soil microbial carbon cycling on the Colorado Plateau

Understanding interactions among biogeochemical cycles is increasingly important as anthropogenic alterations of global climate and of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles interactively affect the Earth system. Ecosystem processes in the dryland biome, which makes up over 40% of Earth's terrestrial surface, are often distinctively sensitive to small changes in resource availability, likely because levels of many resources are low. However, data also suggest that simultaneous changes in the availability of multiple resources may be necessary to affect a response in these low-resource systems, offering an opportunity to test patterns and controls of co-limitation, serial limitation, and individual limitation in soil environments. While drylands may play a governing role in key aspects of Earth's C cycle, and while an improved understanding of resource limitation could substantially improve our forecasts of dryland responses to change, our understanding of interacting controls on soil C cycle processes remains notably poor in these dry systems. Here, we address multiple fundamental hypotheses of resource controls over ecosystem function to test how water, C, N, and P regulate soil C cycling individually and interactively in a dryland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau. Using a series of laboratory incubations, we found that, while water, C, and N limited C cycling through serial limitation, water alone resulted in an extremely small respiratory response from target organisms, whereas water + C resulted in a dramatic increase in soil C cycling, suggesting a degree of functional co-limitation. Nitrogen additions alone resulted in no changes to soil C cycling, but when N was added in concert with water and C, N greatly increased soil C cycling rates relative to additions of water and C without N. Phosphorus additions had no effect on the C cycle either alone or synergistically. These patterns were consistent with the stoichiometry of the system and interactions among resources were surprising in ways that inform our understanding of critical theories in ecology, such as the Transient Maxima Hypothesis, supporting the suggestion that multiple resource limitation explains pulse-dynamic C cycling in drylands better than water limitation alone.

Utah↗
USGS2001

Temporal coherence of two alpine lake basins of the Colorado Front Range, USA

1. Knowledge of synchrony in trends is important to determining regional responses of lakes to disturbances such as atmospheric deposition and climate change. We explored the temporal coherence of physical and chemical characteristics of two series of mostly alpine lakes in nearby basins of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Using year-to-year variation over a 10-year period, we asked whether lakes more similar in exposure to the atmosphere be-haved more similarly than those with greater influence of catchment or in-lake processes. 2. The Green Lakes Valley and Loch Vale Watershed are steeply incised basins with strong altitudinal gradients. There are glaciers at the heads of each catchment. The eight lakes studied are small, shallow and typically ice-covered for more than half the year. Snowmelt is the dominant hydrological event each year, flushing about 70% of the annual discharge from each lake between April and mid-July. The lakes do not thermally stratify during the period of open water. Data from these lakes included surface water temper-ature, sulphate, nitrate, calcium, silica, bicarbonate alkalinity and conductivity. 3. Coherence was estimated by Pearson's correlation coefficient between lake pairs for each of the different variables. Despite close geographical proximity, there was not a strong direct signal from climatic or atmospheric conditions across all lakes in the study. Individual lake characteristics overwhelmed regional responses. Temporal coherence was higher for lakes within each basin than between basins and was highest for nearest neighbours. 4. Among the Green Lakes, conductivity, alkalinity and temperature were temporally coherent, suggesting that these lakes were sensitive to climate fluctuations. Water tem-perature is indicative of air temperature, and conductivity and alkalinity concentrations are indicative of dilution from the amount of precipitation flushed through by snowmelt. 5. In Loch Vale, calcium, conductivity, nitrate, sulphate and alkalinity were temporally coherent, while silica and temperature were not. This suggests that external influences are attenuated by internal catchment and lake processes in Loch Vale lakes. Calcium and sulphate are primarily weathering products, but sulphate derives both from deposition and from mineral weathering. Different proportions of snowmelt versus groundwater in different years could influence summer lake concentrations. Nitrate is elevated in lake waters from atmospheric deposition, but the internal dynamics of nitrate and silica may be controlled by lake food webs. Temperature is attenuated by inconsistently different climates across altitude and glacial meltwaters. 6. It appears that, while the lakes in the two basins are topographically close, geologically and morphologically similar, and often connected by streams, only some attributes are temporally coherent. Catchment and in-lake processes influenced temporal patterns, especially for temperature, alkalinity and silica. Montane lakes with high altitudinal gradients may be particularly prone to local controls compared to systems where coherence is more obvious.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2002

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2025

Declining reservoir elevations following a two-decade drought increase water temperatures and non-native fish passage facilitating a downstream invasion

River ecosystems are threatened by interactions among river regulation, non-native species, and climate change. Water use has exceeded supply in USA’s Colorado River basin draining its two largest storage reservoirs (Lake Powell and Lake Mead). In 2022, Lake Powell began releasing water from its lower epilimnion into the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, which (1) increased rates of fish passage from the reservoir through the dam and (2) created river temperatures suitable for establishment of non-native fishes. Subsequently, smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu) reproduced there for the first time. To assist managers concerned about this invasion, we developed models that (1) predicted propagule pressure at different reservoir elevations and (2) linked reservoir storage/operations, water temperatures, and population dynamics to forecast smallmouth bass population growth potential. Maintaining Lake Powell elevations above 1094 m (3590 ft) would likely minimize propagule pressure from the reservoir and create downstream conditions that minimize smallmouth bass population growth. Dam and reservoir management will likely be less effective for managing smallmouth bass if smallmouth bass become abundant in far downstream reaches.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS1972

Water resources of part of Canyonlands National Park, southeastern Utah

Canyonlands National Park is in about the center of the Canyon Lands section of the Colorado Plateaus physiographic province in southeastern Utah. The part of the park discussed embraces an area of about 400 square miles comprising isolated mesas, precipitous canyons, and dissected broad benches near the confluence of the Green and Colorado Rivers, the only perennial streams in the area. The climate is arid to semiarid; normal annual precipitation ranges from less than 8 to about 10 inches. Potential evapotranspiration is about 41 inches annually. Geology of the park is characterized by nearly horizontal strata that dip gently northward. Exposed rock formations and deposits range in age from Middle Pennsylvanian to Holocene. Owing to the elevated and deeply dissected topography, only parts of the Cedar Mesa and White Rim Sandstone Members of the Cutler Formation of Permian age have potential for development of wells. Strata above and below them support only small springs, are dry, or contain brine. In the northwest part of the park, the Green River at Taylor Canyon is a potential source of surface water for public supplies for the Island In The Sky area and a small part of the northwest White Rim area. It will require filtration and treatment before use. In the same area, two unused wells in Taylor Canyon will supply enough water for present requirements from the White Rim Sandstone Member of the Cutler Formation, about 140 gallons per minute combined, but yield mineralized water that will require treatment before use. Springs yielding good water at the Island In The Sky and White Rim are mostly intermittent and too small for public-water supply. Most of the White Rim area is dry, having no usable ground water. In The Needles area, wells provide water of good quality from the Cedar Mesa Sandstone Member of the Cutler Formation. Springs yielding good water in the same area are available for supplementary supplies. West of The Needles, The Grabens area is without springs or potential aquifers bearing usable water. During 1970 about 510,000 gallons of water was used in Canyonlands National Park. Of this amount, 110,000 gallons was supplied to Island In The Sky by tank truck from a source outside the park, and about 400,000 gallons was withdrawn from the well in use at The Needles. Estimated total annual requirements in 10 years (1980) may be as much as 6 million gallons. Sources of water supplies within the park now in use and potential sources of surface water or ground water outlined by this investigation will meet the estimated requirements. Development of rainfall-collection and cistern-storage systems could furnish small emergency sources of water for waterless areas on the White Rim and in The Grabens.

Utah↗
USGS2022

A review of current capabilities and science gaps in water supply data, modeling, and trends for water availability assessments in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is a critical water resource in the southwestern United States, supplying drinking water for 40 million people in the region and water for irrigation of 2.2 million hectares of land. Extended drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) and the prospect of a warmer climate in the future pose water availability challenges for those charged with managing the river. Limited water availability in the future also may negatively affect aquatic ecosystems and wildlife that depend upon them. Water availability components of special importance in the UCOL include streamflow, salinity in groundwater and surface water, groundwater levels and storage, and the role of snow in the UCOL water cycle. This manuscript provides a review of current “state of the science” for these UCOL water availability components with a focus on identifying gaps in data, modeling, and trends in the basin. Trends provide context for evaluations of current conditions and motivation for further investigation and modeling, models allow for investigation of processes and projections of future water availability, and data support both efforts. Information summarized in this manuscript will be valuable in planning integrated assessments of water availability in the UCOL.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub

Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species–climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep clines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Nevada;New Mexico;Utah↗
USGS2009

Regional regression equations for estimation of natural streamflow statistics in Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Colorado Department of Transportation, developed regional regression equations for estimation of various streamflow statistics that are representative of natural streamflow conditions at ungaged sites in Colorado. The equations define the statistical relations between streamflow statistics (response variables) and basin and climatic characteristics (predictor variables). The equations were developed using generalized least-squares and weighted least-squares multilinear regression reliant on logarithmic variable transformation. Streamflow statistics were derived from at least 10 years of streamflow data through about 2007 from selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the study area that are representative of natural-flow conditions. Basin and climatic characteristics used for equation development are drainage area, mean watershed elevation, mean watershed slope, percentage of drainage area above 7,500 feet of elevation, mean annual precipitation, and 6-hour, 100-year precipitation. For each of five hydrologic regions in Colorado, peak-streamflow equations that are based on peak-streamflow data from selected stations are presented for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year instantaneous-peak streamflows. For four of the five hydrologic regions, equations based on daily-mean streamflow data from selected stations are presented for 7-day minimum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows and for 7-day maximum 2-, 10-, and 50-year streamflows. Other equations presented for the same four hydrologic regions include those for estimation of annual- and monthly-mean streamflow and streamflow-duration statistics for exceedances of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 percent. All equations are reported along with salient diagnostic statistics, ranges of basin and climatic characteristics on which each equation is based, and commentary of potential bias, which is not otherwise removed by log-transformation of the variables of the equations from interpretation of residual plots. The predictor-variable ranges can be used to assess equation applicability for ungaged sites in Colorado.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Nevada;New Mexico;Utah↗
USGS2012

Response of biological soil crust diazotrophs to season, altered summer precipitation, and year-round increased temperature in an arid grassland of the Colorado Plateau, USA

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), which supply significant amounts of fixed nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems worldwide (~33Tg y -1 ), are likely to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Using nifH gene-based surveys, we explored variation in the diazotrophic community of biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau, USA in response to season (autumn vs. spring), as well as field manipulations that increased the frequency of small volume precipitation events and year-round soil temperature. Abundance of nifH genes in biocrusts ranged from 3×10 6 to 1× 8 g -1 soil, and nifH from heterocystous cyanobacteria closely related to Scytonema hyalinum, Spirirestis rafaelensis , and Nostoc commune comprised >98% of the total. Although there was no apparent seasonal effect on total nifH gene abundance in the biocrusts, T-RFLP analysis revealed a strong seasonal pattern in nifH composition. Spirirestis nifH abundance was estimated to oscillate 1 to >2 orders of magnitude between autumn (low) and spring (high). A year-round increase of soil temperature (2–3°C) had little effect on the diazotroph community structure over 2 years. Altered summer precipitation had little impact on diazotroph community structure over the first 1.5years of the study, when natural background patterns across years and seasons superseded any treatment effects. However, after the second summer of treatments, nifH abundance was 2.6-fold lower in biocrusts receiving altered precipitation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria were apparently more resilient to altered precipitation than other cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that diazotrophic community composition of biocrusts in this semi-arid grassland undergoes strong seasonal shifts and that the abundance of its dominant members decreased in response to more frequent, small volume precipitation events.

Frontiers in Terrestrial Microbiology↗
USGS2020

The right trait in the right place at the right time: Matching traits to environment improves restoration outcomes

(Munson) The challenges of restoration in dryland ecosystems are growing due to a rise in anthropogenic disturbance and increasing aridity. Plant functional traits are often used to predict plant performance and can offer a window into the potential outcomes of restoration efforts across environmental gradients. We tracked 15 years of seeding outcomes across 150 sites on the Colorado Plateau, a cold desert ecoregion in the western United States, and analyzed the independent and interactive effects of functional traits (seed mass, height, and specific leaf area) and local biologically relevant climate variables on seeding success. We predicted that the best models would include an interaction between plant traits and climate, indicating a need to match the right trait value to the right climate conditions in order to maximize seeding success. Indeed, we found that both plant height and seed size significantly interacted with temperature seasonality, with larger seeds and taller plants performing better in more seasonal environments. We also determined that these trait-environment patterns are not driven by the use of native vs. non-native species. Our results lend insight to using plant traits to inform the selection of seed mixes for restoring areas with specific climatic conditions, while also demonstrating the strong influence of temperature seasonality on seeding success in the Colorado Plateau region.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2023

Synthesis of climate and ecological science to support grassland management priorities in the North Central Region

Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States. In response to a need to understand how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center led a synthesis of peer-reviewed climate and ecology literature relevant to grassland management in the North Central Region (including Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). This synthesis was done to begin to address grassland managers’ information needs and identify research gaps. This open-file report summarizes the impacts of climate change and variability on temperature, water availability, wildfire, vegetation, wildlife, large-bodied ruminants, grazing, and land-use change and the implications for grassland management in the North Central region. This open-file report also identifies areas in which further research is needed. U.S. Geological Survey funded this project.

Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota,↗