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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2018

Examining the relationship between portable luminescence reader measurements and depositional ages of paleowetland sediments, Las Vegas Valley, Nevada

Portable luminescence readers are exciting new tools that have the potential to rapidly determine the age structure of late Quaternary stratigraphic columns. This is important because high-resolution age profiling can reveal details about the temporal dynamics of climate cause and ecosystem effect, often while researchers are still in the field. In this paper, we compare new portable luminescence reader measurements of total photon counts with a suite of robust, highly resolved ages from middle to late Pleistocene-age paleowetland deposits in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada. Our results show that total photon counts correlate with age, with a quadratic equation providing the best fit to the data. Significant scatter is present in the data, which is likely the result of dose rate variations, multiple sediment sources, and transport mechanisms that include both eolian and fluvial processes. The observed scatter can be reduced significantly using a simple pretreatment procedure involving a 250 μm sieve and neodymium hand magnet to normalize particle sizes and remove magnetic grains. Following this treatment, age estimates based on the reader measurements have an average error of 30 ± 18% when compared against known ages. These findings confirm that portable reader measurements scale with age in paleowetland deposits, allowing its use in establishing rapid, albeit approximate, chronologies for these deposits throughout the American Southwest.

Nevada↗
USGS1998

North American landscape characterization project: The production of a continental scale three-decade Landsat data set

The North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) project is a component of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Landsat Pathfinder program. Pathfinder projects are focused on the investigation of global change utilizing current remote sensing technologies. The NALC project is a cooperative effort between the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and NASA to make Landsat data available to the widest possible user community for scientific research and general public interest. The NALC project is principally funded by the EPA Office of Research and Development and the USGS's Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center (EDC). The objectives of the NALC project are to produce standardized remote sensing data sets, develop standardized analysis methods, and derive standardized land cover change products for a large portion of the North American continent (the conterminous United States and Mexico) (Lunetta and Sturdevant, 1993). The standard product is the NALC “triplicate”;, consisting of co‐registered Landsat multispectral scanner data for the years 1973, 1986, and 1991 (plus or minus one year), plus co‐registered 3 arcsecond digital terrain elevation data. Processing began with the 1986 scene, which was precision corrected (with full terrain correction) to a 60 meter Universal Transverse Mercator base. Automated cross‐correlation procedures were used to co‐register the 1970's and 1990's data to the 1980's base, and independent verifications of registration quality were performed on all triplicate components. The pertinent metadata were compiled in a relational database, which includes WRS2 path/rows, scene ID's, image dates, solar azimuth and elevation, verification RMSE's, and the number of verification control points. NALC triplicate data sets are being used for a number of applications, including the analysis of urbanization patterns, dynamics of climatic fluctuations, deforestation studies, and vegetation classification and mapping. These data are being distributed through the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Information Management System (IMS) at a cost of $15(U.S.) for each triplicate.

Geocarto International↗
USGS2023

Does coat colour influence survival? A test in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares

Some mammal species inhabiting high-latitude biomes have evolved a seasonal moulting pattern that improves camouflage via white coats in winter and brown coats in summer. In many high-latitude and high-altitude areas, the duration and depth of snow cover has been substantially reduced in the last five decades. This reduction in depth and duration of snow cover may create a mismatch between coat colour and colour of the background environment, and potentially reduce the survival rate of species that depend on crypsis. We used long-term (1977–2020) field data and capture–mark–recapture models to test the hypothesis that whiteness of the coat influences winter apparent survival in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ) at Kluane, Yukon, Canada. Whiteness of the snowshoe hare coat in autumn declined during this study, and snowshoe hares with a greater proportion of whiteness in their coats in autumn survived better during winter. However, whiteness of the coat in spring did not affect subsequent summer survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of coat colour change in autumn can reduce overwinter survival. Because declines in cyclic snowshoe hare populations are strongly affected by low winter survival, the timing of coat colour change may adversely affect snowshoe hare population dynamics as climate change continues.

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Ser B.↗
USGS2017

East African weathering dynamics controlled by vegetation-climate feedbacks

Tropical weathering has important linkages to global biogeochemistry and landscape evolution in the East African rift. We disentangle the influences of climate and terrestrial vegetation on chemical weathering intensity and erosion at Lake Malawi using a long sediment record. Fossil pollen, microcharcoal, particle size, and mineralogy data affirm that the detrital clays accumulating in deep water within the lake are controlled by feedbacks between climate and hinterland forest composition. Particle-size patterns are also best explained by vegetation, through feedbacks with lake levels, wildfires, and erosion. We develop a new source-to-sink framework that links lacustrine sedimentation to hinterland vegetation in tropical rifts. Our analysis suggests that climate-vegetation interactions and their coupling to weathering/erosion could threaten future food security and has implications for accurately predicting petroleum play elements in continental rift basins.

Geology↗
USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey landscape science strategy 2020–2030

Across our Nation, multiple Federal, State, Tribal, and local governments are working with stakeholders and landowners to restore, conserve, and manage lands and resources to benefit fish, wildlife, and people. One of the largest Federal efforts is led by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), with multiple DOI agencies working to conserve and manage public lands, resources, and cultural heritage for the benefit and enjoyment of current and future generations. As a science provider within the DOI, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has an important role in developing actionable science products that can inform decision making on public lands and across all of our Nation’s landscapes. Our landscapes and resources are undergoing continual change from a complex and interacting suite of stressors that include traditional and nontraditional land uses, a changing climate, a dynamic economy, and a culturally diverse and ever-changing society. Landscape science seeks to understand how the physical, biological, and social components of ecosystems and landscapes interact with each other and are affected by these stressors across local to global scales. The USGS has developed this landscape science strategy to focus and strengthen the agency’s efforts to inform critical conservation, restoration, and management decisions for American landscapes. The strategy directly supports the overarching 21st-century science strategy of the USGS and expands our perspective and focus on partnerships, including with internal, external, traditional, and nontraditional partners. The vision for USGS landscape science is to integrate multiple disciplines and approaches to create and deliver relevant, timely, and scientifically sound products that enable our partners to make informed decisions about how to manage complex interacting natural and human systems across changing American landscapes. This strategy seeks to leverage the expertise, data, analytical capacity, and tools of the agency and to strengthen integration of science efforts across programs and scales. A cornerstone of the strategy is working closely with landowners and resource managers to identify the science that is needed to inform management actions, and then working collaboratively with those same partners to coproduce science and data products that are timely, practical, and useful for their decision making. Many individual efforts within the USGS already embrace landscape science ideas and practices. With the development of this strategy, we are seeking to build on these efforts and to focus agency attention and expertise on expanding, connecting, and institutionalizing core practices and approaches for landscape science that produces actionable science products and tools that decision makers can use to help conserve and manage American landscapes.

Circular↗
USGS1999

Summer water clarity responses to phosphorus, Daphnia grazing, and internal mixing in Lake Mendota

Linear models were developed for predicting mean Secchi disk depth readings as a measure of water clarity for the summer months in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin. The 20-yr (1976-1995) data set also included external phosphorus (P) loadings and in-lake April P concentrations as indices of lake nutrient status, and monthly (28 d) water column stabilities and Daphnia biomasses as indices of lake mixing and algal grazing potentials, respectively. June Secchi depths were mostly controlled by food web dynamics, which dictated whether the larger-bodied Daphnia pulicaria or the smaller-bodied D. galeata mendotae dominated during the spring clear-water phase. May Daphnia biomasses were significantly greater in D. pulicaria-dominated years than in D. galeata-dominated years; D. pulicaria-year biomasses were also greater during the summer months. The model for the midsummer (July-August) months indicated that Secchi depths were inversely related to April P concentrations and positively related to midsummer Daphnia biomasses and lake stabilities. Scenarios for midsummer Secchi depths were tested using the observed minimum and maximum values for each predictor variate. While holding two variates constant, April P, Daphnia biomass, and lake stability each resulted in relatively similar Secchi ranges (0.81, 0.81, and 1.17 m, respectively). Our results suggest that summer water clarity in eutrophic Lake Mendota is controlled by interacting ecosystem processes linked to land use activities, lake food web dynamics, and climate.

Limnology and Oceanography↗
USGS2021

Livestock grazing, climatic variation, and breeding phenology jointly shape disease dynamics and survival in a wild amphibian

Wildlife responses to infectious disease can be influenced by environmental stressors that alter host-pathogen dynamics. We investigated how livestock grazing, climatic variation, and breeding phenology influence disease prevalence and annual survival in boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) populations challenged with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), a fungal pathogen implicated in global amphibian declines. We conducted a five-year (2015–2019) capture-recapture study of boreal toads ( n = 1301) inhabiting pastures grazed by cattle in western Wyoming, USA. We employed structural equation models to determine whether the effects of climatic variation on Bd prevalence were direct or mediated through effects on breeding phenology and multi-state models to explore the interplay of grazing, weather, and Bd infection on adult survival. Higher winter snowpack was linked with shorter spring breeding seasons, which were associated with lower Bd prevalence. Boreal toads infected with Bd suffered increased mortality, but only at relatively cool temperatures. Although cattle grazing created warmer microclimates, likely by reducing vegetation cover, grazing-induced habitat changes did not scale up to influence adult survival. Our results suggest that boreal toads in cooler environments face increased risk of disease-induced mortality, possibly because infected individuals are not able to elevate body temperature to reduce or clear infection. More generally, we demonstrate that host-pathogen dynamics can be shaped jointly by independent and interactive effects of livestock grazing, breeding season length, and climatic variation. Future investigations of wildlife responses to disease therefore may benefit from considering anthropogenic land use and climatic regimes, including the effect of weather on host phenology.

Wyoming↗
USGS2008

Effect of climate fluctuations on long-term vegetation dynamics in Carolina bay wetlands

Carolina bays and similar depression wetlands of the U.S. Southeastern Coastal Plain have hydrologic regimes that are driven primarily by rainfall. Therefore, climate fluctuations such as drought cycles have the potential to shape long-term vegetation dynamics. Models suggest two potential long-term responses to hydrologic fluctuations, either cyclic change maintaining open emergent vegetation, or directional succession toward forest vegetation. In seven Carolina bay wetlands on the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, we assessed hydrologic variation and vegetation response over a 15-year period spanning two drought and reinundation cycles. Changes in pond stage (water depth) were monitored bi-weekly to monthly each year from 1989?2003. Vegetation composition was sampled in three years (1989, 1993, and 2003) and analyzed in relation to changes in hydrologic conditions. Multi-year droughts occurred prior to the 1989 and 2003 sampling years, whereas 1993 coincided with a wet period. Wetland plant species generally maintained dominance after both wet and dry conditions, but the abundances of different plant growth forms and species indicator categories shifted over the 15-year period. Decreased hydroperiods and water depths during droughts led to increased cover of grass, upland, and woody species, particularly at the shallower wetland margins. Conversely, reinundation and longer hydroperiods resulted in expansion of aquatic and emergent species and reduced the cover of flood-intolerant woody and upland species. These semi-permanent Upper Coastal Plain bays generally exhibited cyclic vegetation dynamics in response to climate fluctuation, with wet periods favoring dominance by herbaceous species. Large basin morphology and deep ponding, paired with surrounding upland forest dominated by flood-intolerant pines, were features contributing to persistence of herbaceous vegetation. Drought cycles may promote directional succession to forest in bays that are smaller, shallower, or colonized by flood-tolerant hardwoods.

Wetlands↗
USGS2023

Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

Climate warming threatens to destabilize vast northern permafrost areas, potentially releasing large quantities of organic carbon that could further disrupt the climate. Here we synthesize paleorecords of past permafrost-carbon dynamics to contextualize future permafrost stability and carbon feedbacks. We identify key landscape differences between the last deglaciation and today that influence the response of permafrost to atmospheric warming, as well as landscape-level differences that limit subsequent carbon uptake. We show that the current magnitude of thaw has not yet exceeded that of previous deglaciations, but that permafrost carbon release has the potential to exert a strong feedback on future Arctic climate as temperatures exceed those of the Pleistocene. Better constraints on the extent of subsea permafrost and its carbon pool, and on carbon dynamics from a range of permafrost thaw processes, including blowout craters and megaslumps, are needed to help quantify the future permafrost-carbon-climate feedbacks.

Communications Earth and Environment↗
USGS2017

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

California↗
USGS2012

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO 2 and CH 4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO 2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye ( Sander vitreum ). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2011

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2–4 °C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2023

Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA

Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2020

What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in western North America? A systematic map protocol

Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and disease have the potential to directly or indirectly affect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to describe the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America. This map will help to identify knowledge gaps and clusters of evidence, and can be used to inform future research directions and adaptive management strategies.

Environmental Evidence↗
USGS2016

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Washington↗