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Assessment of interim flow water-quality data of the San Joaquin River restoration program and implications for fishes, California, 2009-11

After more than 50 years of extensive water diversion for urban and agriculture use, a major settlement was reached among the U.S. Departments of the Interior and Commerce, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Friant Water Users Authority in an effort to restore the San Joaquin River. The settlement received Federal court approval in October 2006 and established the San Joaquin River Restoration Program, a multi-agency collaboration between State and Federal agencies to restore and maintain fish populations, including Chinook salmon, in the main stem of the river between Friant Dam and the confluence with the Merced River. This is to be done while avoiding or minimizing adverse water supply effects to all of the Friant Division contractors that could result from restoration flows required by the settlement. The settlement stipulates that water- and sediment-quality data be collected to help assess the restoration goals. This report summarizes and evaluates water-quality data collected in the main stem of the San Joaquin River between Friant Dam and the Merced River by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program during 2009-11. This summary and assessment consider sampling frequency for adequate characterization of variability, sampling locations for sufficient characterization of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program restoration reach, sampling methods for appropriate media (water and sediment), and constituent reporting limits. After reviewing the water- and sediment-quality results for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program, several suggestions were made to the Fisheries Management Work Group, a division of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program that focuses solely on the reintroduction strategies and health of salmon and other native fishes in the river. Water-quality results for lead and total organic carbon exceeded the Surface Water Ambient Monitoring Program Basin Plan Objectives for the San Joaquin Basin, and results for copper exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Pesticide Programs' aquatic-life chronic and acute benchmarks for invertebrates. One sediment sample contained detections of pyrethroid pesticides bifenthrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and total permethrin at concentrations above published chronic toxicity thresholds.

California

Progress report on the geology and ground-water hydrology of the Lower Missouri-Souris Unit; Part 1, Crosby-Mohall area, North Dakota

The Crosby-Mohall area covers about 2,700 square miles in the north- western part of North Dakota. This area is included in the 2,500,000-acre Missouri-Souris and Garrison Diversion irrigation projects,which are im portant units in the general plans for development of the water resources of the Missouri River Basin. Although the Crosby-Mohall area lies outside the drainage basin of the Missouri River, plans have been made for the irrigation of about 1,000,0)0 acres (equivalent to 1,560 square miles) of the most suitable land, with water brought by canal from the Missouri River in Montana. The studies that have been undertaken in the area by the Division of Ground Water of the United States Geological Survey form a part of the investigations which have been initiated by the Survey and several other bureaus of the Department of the Interior, especially the Bureau of Reclamation. The studies on which the present report is bas2 were made during the field seasons of 1945, 1946 and 1947, to obtain information on the occurrence, movement, quantity, and quality of the ground water. The report contains data on the several kinds of water-bearing materials, water analyses, and well logs; the records of fluctuation of water level in about 400 wells; and an inventory of 4,636 wells and test holes. Later studies for the whole of the Missouri-Souris Unit will supply additional data on ground-water levels and piezometric surfaces, more extensive information on quality of water, a complete inventory of wells, and further geologic information relating to ground-water supplies. Other work that is planned also includes the drilling of additional test holes and the analysis of water samples from representative wells throughout the area.

North Dakota

Hydrologic data of the coastal drainage basins of southeastern Massachusetts, Weir River, Hingham, to Jonas River, Kingston

The principal basins are those of Weir River, James Brook, Bound Brook, North River, South River, and Jones River, all draining to Massachusetts Bay and Cape Cod Bay. These basins are bounded on the north by the Weymouth River basins, on the west by the Taunton River basin, and on the south by small basins that drain to Cape Cod Bay. The basins included all, or parts of, the Norwell, Pembroke, Plymouth, Plympton, Rockland, Scituate, Weymouth, and Whitman. With the following exceptions, each town is served by its own municipal water system--Hingham and northwest Cohasset by the Hingham Water Company; Abington and Rockland by the Abington-Rockland Joint Water Works; and Plympton lacks a public water supply. Weymouth and Cohasset are in Norfolk County; the other towns are in Plymouth County. This report presents, in tabular form, selected records of wells, test wells, borings, and springs; measurements of stream discharge, specific conductance, and temperature at partial-record stations; chemical analyses of ground water and surface water; and a summary of municipal water sources and additional sources available. The data were collected during a study of the drainage basins from 1969 to 1971 in cooperation with the Massachusetts Water Resources Commission. The report is released in order to make available to the public and to local, state, and federal agencies basic hydrologic information that may aid in planning water-resources development. Basic records contained in this report and streamflow data published elsewhere (U.S. Geol. Survey, 1960 et seq.) complement an interpretive report (Williams and Tasker, 1974).

Massachusetts

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada

Quality of surface waters in the lower Columbia River Basin

This report, made during 1959-60, provides reconnaissance data on the quality of waters in the lower Columbia River basin ; information on present and future water problems in the basin; and data that can be employed both in water-use studies and in planning future industrial, municipal, and agricultural expansion within this area. The lower Columbia River basin consists of approximately 46,000 square miles downstream from the confluence of the Snake and Columbia Rivers The region can be divided into three geographic areas. The first is the heavily forested, sparsely populated mountain regions in which quality of water in general is related to geologic and climatological factors. The second is a semiarid plateau east of the Cascade Mountains; there differences in geology and precipitation, together with more intensive use of available water for irrigation, bring about marked differences in water quality. The third is the Willamette-Puget trough area in which are concentrated most of the industry and population and in which water quality is influenced by sewage and industrial waste disposal. The majority of the streams in the lower Columbia River basin are calcium magnesium bicarbonate waters. In general, the rivers rising in the. Coast Range and on the west slope of the Cascade Range contain less than 100 parts per million of dissolved solids, and hardness of the water is less than 50 parts per million. Headwater reaches of the streams on the east slope of the Cascade Range are similar to those on the west slope; but, downstream, irrigation return flows cause the dissolved-solids content and hardness to increase. Most of the waters, however, remain calcium magnesium bicarbonate in type. The highest observed dissolved-solids concentrations and also some changes in chemical composition occur in the streams draining the more arid parts of the area. In these parts, irrigation is chiefly responsible for increasing the dissolved-solids concentration and altering the chemical composition of the streams. The maximum dissolved-solids concentration and hardness of water observed in major irrigation areas were 507 and 262 parts per million, respectively, for the. Walla Walla River near Touchet, Wash. In terms of the U.S. Salinity Laboratory Staff classification (1954, p. 80), water in most streams in the basin has low salinity and sodium hazards and is suitable for irrigation. A salt-balance problem does exist in the Hermiston-Stanfield, Oreg., area of the Umatilla River basin, and because of poor drainage, improper irrigation practices could cause salt-balance problems in the Willamette River Valley, Oreg., in which irrigation is rapidly increasing. Pollution by sewage disposal has reached undesirable levels in the Walla Walla River, in the Willamette River from Eugene to Portland, Oreg., and in the Columbia River from Portland to Puget Island. In the lower reaches of the Willamette River, the pollution load from sewage and industrial-waste disposal at times depletes the dissolved oxygen in the water to concentrations below what is considered necessary for aquatic life. Water in most of the tributaries to the lower Columbia River is of excellent quality and after some treatment could be used for industrial and municipal supplies. The principal treatment required would be disinfection and turbidity removal.

Water Supply Paper

Review of water demand and water utilization studies for the Provo River drainage basin, and review of a study of the effects of the proposed Jordanelle Reservoir on seepage to underground mines, Bonneville unit of the central Utah project

Problem: Questions have been raised concerning the adequacy of available water to fulfill the needs of storage, exchanges, diversions, and instream flows, pursuant to existing water rights in the Provo River drainage basin part of the Bonneville Unit. Also, concern has been expressed about the potential for seepage of water from Jordanelle Reservoir to underground mines. The Utah Congressional Delegation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) review the results of analyses performed by and for the USBR. Purpose and Scope: The purpose of this report is to present the results of the USGS review of (1) the hydrologic data, techniques, and model used by the USBR in their hydrologic analyses of the Provo River drainage basin and (2) the results of a study of the potential for seepage from the Jordanelle Reservoir to nearby underground mines. The USGS reviewed USBR-supplied water demands, water utilization studies, and models of seepage from Jordanelle Reservoir. The USBR estimated that about 90 percent of the water supply for Jordanelle Reservoir will be water from Strawberry Reservoir exchanged for water from the Provo River stored in Utah Lake. If the Utah State Engineer allows the USBR to claim an estimated 19,700 acre-feet of return flows from the CUP, only about 77 percent of the supply would be derived from exchange of existing water rights in Utah Lake. The USGS assumed that planned importations of water from the Uinta Basin will be available and deliverable to fulfill the proposed exchanges. Water rights and demands are important for determining water availability. The USGS did not conduct an independent review of water rights and demands. The USSR and Utah Division of Water Rights use different methods in some areas for determining stress on the system based on past records. The USSR used "historical observed diversions" and the Utah Division of Water Rights use "diversion entitlements", which may not be equal to the historical diversions. The USGS based its review upon water demands used by the USSR. The Utah Division of Water Rights has responsibility for granting and enforcing water rights, and the final decisions on how the rights will be adjudicated lies with the Utah Division of Water Rights and with the courts. The USGS review did not consider the draft water distribution plan for the Utah Lake drainage basin proposed by the Utah State Engineer (written commun., October 15,1991). This plan, when finalized, may have an effect on water availability to the CUP.

Utah

National Water-Quality Assessment Program; The Lower Susquehanna River basin

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began to implement a full-scale National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. The three major objectives of the NAWQA program are to provide a consistent description of current waterquality conditions for a large part of the Nation's water resources, define long-term trends in water quality, and identify, describe, and explain the major factors that affect water-quality conditions and trends. The program will produce water-quality information that will be useful to policy makers and managers at the national, State, and local levels. The program will be implemented through 60 separate investigations of river basins and aquifer systems, called study units. These study-unit investigations will be conducted at the State and local level, and will form the foundation on which national- and regional-level assessments are based. The 60 study units are hydrologic systems that include parts of most major river basins and aquifer systems. The study-unit areas range from 1,200 to more than 65,000 square miles and include about 60 to 70 percent of the Nation's water use and population served by public water supply. In 1991, the Lower Susquehanna River basin was among the first 20 NAWQA study units selected for study under the full-scale implementation plan.

Open-File Report

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes

A comparison of methods to predict historical daily streamflow time series in the southeastern United States

Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water. Streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. As part of its National Water Census, the U.S. Geological Survey is planning to provide streamflow predictions for ungaged locations. In order to predict streamflow at a useful spatial and temporal resolution throughout the Nation, efficient methods need to be selected. This report examines several methods used for streamflow prediction in ungaged basins to determine the best methods for regional and national implementation. A pilot area in the southeastern United States was selected to apply 19 different streamflow prediction methods and evaluate each method by a wide set of performance metrics. Through these comparisons, two methods emerged as the most generally accurate streamflow prediction methods: the nearest-neighbor implementations of nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (NN-QPPQ) and standardizing logarithms of streamflow by monthly means and standard deviations (NN-SMS12L). It was nearly impossible to distinguish between these two methods in terms of performance. Furthermore, neither of these methods requires significantly more parameterization in order to be applied: NN-SMS12L requires 24 regional regressions—12 for monthly means and 12 for monthly standard deviations. NN-QPPQ, in the application described in this study, required 27 regressions of particular quantiles along the flow duration curve. Despite this finding, the results suggest that an optimal streamflow prediction method depends on the intended application. Some methods are stronger overall, while some methods may be better at predicting particular statistics. The methods of analysis presented here reflect a possible framework for continued analysis and comprehensive multiple comparisons of methods of prediction in ungaged basins (PUB). Additional metrics of comparison can easily be incorporated into this type of analysis. By considering such a multifaceted approach, the top-performing models can easily be identified and considered for further research. The top-performing models can then provide a basis for future applications and explorations by scientists, engineers, managers, and practitioners to suit their own needs.

Scientific Investigations Report

Data on surface-water quality and quantity, lower Edgewood Creek basin, Douglas County, Nevada, 1984-85

Selected hydrologic data were collected from August 1984 through July 1985 at three sites on the lower part of Edgewood Creek, and at a recently constructed sediment-catchment basin that captures and retains runoff from developed areas in the lower Edgewood Creek drainage. The data were collected to quantify the discharge of selected constituents downstream from recent and planned watershed restoration projects, and to Lake Tahoe. Contained in this report are the results of quantitative analyses of 39 water samples for: total and dissolved ammonium, organic nitrogen, nitrite, nitrate, phosphorus, and orthophosphorus; suspended sediment; total iron, manganese, and zinc; and dissolved temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen; summary statistics (means and standard deviations), and computations of instantaneous loads. On the basis of mean values, about 80% of the total nitrogen load at each of the three Edgewood Creek sites is in the form of organic nitrogen, 12% is in the form of nitrate nitrogen, 7% is in the form of ammonium nitrogen, and 1% is in the form of nitrite nitrogen. The percentage of total phosphorus load in the form of orthophosphorus at the three stream sites varies somewhat with time, but is generally greater at the two downstream sites than at the upstream site. In addition, the percentage of the total phosphorus load that is present in the dissolved state generally is greater at the two downstream sites than at the upstream site. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report

Effects of land-use changes and stormflow-detention basins on flooding and nonpoint-source pollution, in Irondequoit Creek basin, Monroe and Ontario counties, New York--application of a precipitation-runoff model

Urbanization of the 150-square-mile Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., continues to spread southward and eastward from the City of Rochester, on the shore of Lake Ontario. Conversion of forested land to other uses over the past 40 years has increased to the extent that more than 50 percent of the basin is now developed. This expansion has increased flooding and impaired stream-water quality in the northern (downstream) half of the basin. A precipitation-runoff model of the Irondequoit Creek basin was developed with the model code HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program--FORTRAN) to simulate the effects of land-use changes and stormflow-detention basins on flooding and nonpoint-source pollution on the basin. Model performance was evaluated through a combination of graphical comparisons and statistical tests, and indicated 'very good' agreement (mean error less than 10 percent) between observed and simulated daily and monthly streamflows, between observed and simulated monthly water temperatures, and between observed total suspended solids loads and simulated sediment loads. Agreement between monthly observed and simulated nutrient loads was 'very good' (mean error less than 15 percent) or 'good' (mean error between 15 and 25 percent). Results of model simulations indicated that peak flows and loads of sediment and total phosphorus would increase in a rural subbasin, where 10 percent of the basin was converted from forest and grassland to pervious and impervious developed areas. Subsequent simulation of a stormflow-detention basin at the mouth of this subbasin indicated that peak flows and constituent loads would decrease below those that were generated by the land-use-change scenario, and, in some cases, below those that were simulated by the original land-use scenario. Other results from model simulations of peak flows over a 30-year period (1970-2000), with and without simulation of 50-percent flow reductions at one existing and nine hypothetical stormflow-detention basins, indicated that stormflow-detention basins would likely decrease peak flows 14 to 17 percent on Allen Creek and 17 to 18 percent on Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. The model is intended as a management tool that water-resource managers can use to guide decisions regarding future development in the basin. The model and associated files are designed to permit (1) creation of scenarios that represent planned or hypothetical development in the basin, and (2) assessment of the flooding and chemical loads that are likely to result. Instream stormflow-detention basins can be simulated in separate scenarios to assess their effect on flooding and chemical loads. This report (1) provides examples of how the model can be applied to address these issues, (2) discusses the model revisions required to simulate land-use changes and detention basins, and (3) describes the analytical steps necessary to evaluate the model results.

Scientific Investigations Report

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Lake Tahoe Basin

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km). Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Great Lakes Region

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Scientific Investigations Report

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia. To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends. The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Georgia

Earthquake recordings from the 2002 Seattle Seismic Hazard Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington state

This report describes seismic data obtained during the fourth Seismic Hazard Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS) experiment, termed Seattle SHIPS . The experiment was designed to study the influence of the Seattle sedimentary basin on ground shaking during earthquakes. To accomplish this, we deployed seismometers over the basin to record local earthquakes, quarry blasts, and teleseisms during the period of January 26 to May 27, 2002. We plan to analyze the recordings to compute spectral amplitudes at each site, to determine the variability of ground motions over the basin. During the Seattle SHIPS experiment, seismometers were deployed at 87 sites in a 110-km-long east-west line, three north-south lines, and a grid throughout the Seattle urban area (Figure 1). At each of these sites, an L-22, 2-Hz velocity transducer was installed and connected to a REF TEK Digital Acquisition System (DAS), both provided by the Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (PASSCAL) of the Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology (IRIS). The instruments were installed on January 26 and 27, and were retrieved gradually between April 18 and May 27. All instruments continuously sampled all three components of motion (velocity) at a sample rate of 50 samples/sec. To ensure accurate computations of amplitude, we calibrated the geophones in situ to obtain the instrument responses. In this report, we discuss the acquisition of these data, we describe the processing and merging of these data into 1-hour long traces and into windowed events, we discuss the geophone calibration process and its results, and we display some of the earthquake recordings.

Washington

An assessment of the hydrologic information required for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management-U.S. Geological Survey coal-hydrology program in the West

In 1974, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management began the Energy Minerals Rehabilitation Inventory and Analysis (EMRIA) Program, now known as the Coal Hydrologic Investigations Program, to collect detailed information on water and other resources of proposed coal-lease areas. The U.S. Geological Survey has been collecting water-resource information for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management since the program was started. This report summarizes the U.S. Bureau of Land Management's hydrologic information needs in the different stages of the land-use planning and coal-leasing process and presents an evaluation of the use of the U.S. Geological Survey's precipitation-runoff model from a Bureau of Land Management perspective. Information collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for precipitation, surface water, ground water, and water quality has been used extensively in environmental assessments and site-specific analyses for coal leasing. The U.S. Geological Survey also has been calibrating a precipitation-runoff model used to estimate the surface discharge of ungaged basins in northwestern Colorado. A test of the model shows that it will provide surface-discharge estimates for ungaged basins within the accuracy required for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management's land-use planning and coal-leasing process. However, the model is most effective when applied by an experienced user. In addition, more verification of the model is needed before it will accurately predict the impacts of coal mining on surface water.

Open-File Report

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Santiago Fire, Orange County, Southern California

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Santiago Fire in Orange County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Open-File Report