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Land use information and air quality planning

The pilot national land use information system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site project has provided an improved technique for estimating emissions, diffusion, and impact patterns of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and particulate matter. Implementation of plans to control air quality requires land use information, which, until this time, has been inadequate. The pilot system, however, provided data for updating information on the sources of point and area emissions of SO 2 and particulate matter affecting the Norfolk-Portsmouth area of Virginia for the 1971-72 winter (Dec.-Jan.-Feb.) and the annual 1972 period, and for a future annual period 1985. This emission information is used as input to the Air Quality Display Model of the Environmental Protection Agency to obtain diffusion and impact patterns for the three periods previously mentioned. The results are: (1) During the 1971-72 winter, estimated S0 2 amounts over an area with a SW-NE axis in the central section of Norfolk exceeded both primary and secondary levels; (2) future annual levels of SO 2 , estimated by anticipated residential development and point-source changes, are not expected to cause serious deterioration of the region's present air quality; and (3) for the 1971-72 winter and annual 1972 period the diffusion results showed that both primary and secondary standards for particulate matter are regularly exceeded in central Norfolk and Portsmouth. In addition, on the basis of current control programs, the 1985 levels of particulate matter are expected to exceed the presently established secondary air quality standards through central Norfolk and Portsmouth and in certain areas of Virginia Beach.

Delaware;Maryl;New Jersey;North Carolina;Pennsylva↗

Description and evaluation of the information transfer workshop series "Coal hydrology in Virginia"

A series of workshops was conducted in September, 1982, by staff of the Virginia Office, Mid-Atlantic District of the U.S.-Geological Survey for the benefit of coal operators, consultants, and resource managers in the coal-producing area of southwest Virginia. The purpose of the workshop series was to present hydrologic information and data by the U.S. Geological Survey collected during four years of study of the. coal hydrology of Virginia. The workshop series was held one day a week for three weeks at two locations within southwest Virginia in order to reduce travel time and overnight travel costs for participants. Results of an independently conducted questionnaire indicate the series was a success. The report summarizes the workshop preparation, organization, and presentation, and gives general conclusions and suggestions for those interested in conducting workshops.

Open-File Report↗

Land use and land cover information and air-quality planning

The land use and land cover information developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site project has been proven useful when used in an improved technique for estimating emissions, diffusion, and impact patterns of sulfur dioxide (S02) and particulate matter. Implementation of plans to control air quality requires land use and land cover information, which, until this time, has been inadequate. The land use and land cover data were used in updating information on the sources of point and area emissions of S02 and particulate matter affecting the Norfolk-Portsmouth area of Virginia for the 1971-72 winter (Dec.-Jan.-Feb.) and the annual 1972 period, and for a future annual period-1985. This emission information is used as input to the Air Quality Display Model of the Environmental Protection Agency to obtain diffusion and impact patterns for the three periods previously mentioned. The results are: (1) During the 1971-72 winter, estimated S02 amounts over an area with southwest-northeast axis in the central section of Norfolk exceeded both primary and secondary levels, (2) future annual levels of S02, estimated by anticipated residential development and point-source changes, are not expected to cause serious deterioration of the region's present air quality, and (3) for the 1971-72 winter, and annual 1972, period the diffusion results showed that both primary and secondary standards for particulate matter are regularly exceeded in central Norfolk and Portsmouth. In addition, on the basis of current control programs, the 1985 levels of particulate matter are expected to exceed the presently established secondary air-quality standards through central Norfolk and Portsmouth and in certain areas of Virginia Beach. Land use and land cover information can be used to estimate emissions for inputs to diffusion models and to interpret the implications of diffusion patterns for: (1) Implementing various control strategies, (2) selecting sites of air sampling stations, and (3) predicting the effects that proposed changes in land use and land cover might have on emission patterns and air quality.

Professional Paper↗

Geology and potential hazards of the continental slope between Lindenkohl and South Toms Canyons, offshore mid-Atlantic United States

Because sediment instability, or slumping, has been identified as a potential hazard to petroleum development of the east-coast Continental Slope, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, began a detailed study of a segment of the Continental Slope between Lindenkohl and South Toms Canyons off New Jersey. This 40-km x 35-km area was chosen for study because it lies within the area of high interest for petroleum development (Lease sales 49 and 59), and because it includes several wells which provide stratigraphic control. This report discusses the results of geologic mapping, using seismic-reflection data acquired in 1978 and 1979. Some initial results from more recently acquired data are included. The Continental Slope in the study area has a complex surface with ridges, canyons, and valleys. Three slump or slide features were observed in the heads and on the walls of canyons and valleys, and two slides were identified on an intercanyon area. The identified slumps or slides are found in Quaternary sediments and total about 1.3 percent of the Continental Slope area mapped. The slope is generally mantled by less than 2 m of Holocene sediments. Pleistocene sediment (primarily silty clay) is about 450 m thick at the top of the slope and thins to nearly zero or is absent on much of the mid and lower slope, where sediments of Miocene to Eocene age are exposed. Ridges on the midslope (water depths of 800-1,500 m) and parts of the lowr slope (1,500-2,150 m) result primarily from Pleistocene and older deposition. The intervening valleys show evidence of erosion along the deepest parts of their courses. Mid-range sidescan-sonar data show evidence that processes of bottom-current erosion and downcanyon transport of material may be active in the present day. However, major features of the sea floor appear to be unchanged since late-Pleistocene time.

Lindenkohl and South Toms Canyons↗

Monitoring inland storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Irene along the Atlantic Coast of the United States, August 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of water-level sensors at 212 locations along the Atlantic coast from South Carolina to Maine during August 2011 to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Irene. Water-level sensor locations were selected to augment existing tide-gage networks to ensure adequate monitoring in areas forecasted to have substantial storm tide. As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; 2011a,b), storm tide is the water-level rise generated by a coastal storm as a result of the combination of storm surge and astronomical tide.

Atlantic Coast↗

Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area. The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique. The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells from 1986 to 2008 were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value of 12.3 feet is about 3 percent of the total observed water-level range throughout the aquifer system. Streamflow observation data of base flow conditions were derived for 153 sites from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset Plus and National Water Information System. An average residual of about –8 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 21 cubic feet per second for a range of computed base flows of about 417 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 122 sites from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus. An average residual of about 10 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 34 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 568 flow measurements in the 31 sites obtained from the National Water Information System for a range in computed base flows of about 1,141 cubic feet per second. The numerical representation of the hydrogeologic information used in the development of this regional flow model was dependent upon how the aquifer system and simulated hydrologic stresses were discretized in space and time. Lumping hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

Geologic evaluation of waste-storage potential in selected segments of the Mesozoic aquifer system below the zone of fresh water, Atlantic Coastal Plain, North Carolina through New Jersey

This report describes the distribution of subsurface environments in the Atlantic Coastal Plain?North Carolina through New Jersey, that are seen to have geologic potential for the storage of toxic waste. The environments described consist of layers of sand or sandstone, 20 feet or more in thickness, that are immediately overlain and underlain by layers of shale or clay, 20 feet or more in thickness, and which occur in Units F, G, and H of Mesozoic age in areas where the top of each of these units lies at a depth equal to or greater than 1,500 feet below mean sea level. Using a group of geologic parameters derived from or combining 20 categories of basic data, established from study of well cuttings and geophysical logs, a series of 18 regional maps was constructed. For each of three geologic units delineated in the subsurface, the maps illustrate the distribution of potential waste-storage reservoirs in terms of their areal extent, depth below land surface, and the thicknesses of the component reservoir and reservoir-seal rocks. The depth of burial, physical character, and extent and thickness of the reservoirs that have waste-storage potential are variable. The range in variability appears to be broad enough to satisfy the geologic requirements for different types of waste storage.

Professional Paper↗

Geological studies on the COST No. B-2 well, U. S. Mid-Atlantic outer continental shelf area

The COST No. B-2 well is the first deep stratigraphic test to be drilled on the United States Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (AOCS) area. The well was drilled on the eastern flank of the Baltimore Canyon trough to a total depth of 16,043 feet; it penetrated a section composed almost entirely of sand and shale with subordinate amounts of limestone, coal, and lignite. Biostratigraphic studies have shown that the uppermost 5,000 feet is of Tertiary and Quaternary age and was deposited in nonmarine to deep marine environments. The Upper Cretaceous section is about 3,000 feet thick and is of dominantly shallow marine origin. The basal 8,000 feet of sediment has been tentatively determined to be entirely of Early Cretaceous age, the basal sediments being dated as Berriasian. This Lower Cretaceous section is primarily nonmarine to very shallow marine in origin. Examination of cores, well cuttings, and electric logs shows that thick potential reservoir sands are found through much of the section. However, porosity and permeability decrease strikingly in the deeper parts of the Lower Cretaceous section as a result of compaction and cementation. Most of the sands are quite feldspathic, and progressive decomposition of feldspar stimulates authigenic clay and silica formation. Studies of color alteration of visible organic matter, organic geochemistry, and vitrinite reflectance show that although many units have high organic-carbon contents, moderately low geothermal gradients may have retarded thermal maturation. This, in conjunction with the scarcity of marine-derived organic matter in the lower part of the section, suggests a relatively low potential for the generation of liquid hydrocarbons. However, the overall combination of source beds, reservoirs, seals, structures, and thermal gradients may be favorable for the generation and entrapment of natural gas. Furthermore, the presence of reservoir rocks, seals, and trapping structures may indicate a significant potential for entrapment of either natural gas or petroleum that was generated deeper in the basin and then migrated either laterally or vertically.

Circular↗

Geological studies of the COST No. B-3 well, United States mid-Atlantic continental slope area

The COST No. B-3 well is the first deep stratigraphic test to be drilled on the Continental Slope off the Eastern United States. The well was drilled in 2,686 ft (819 m) of water in the Baltimore Canyon trough area to a total depth of 15,820 ft (4,844 m) below the drill platform. It penetrated a section composed of mudstones, calcareous mudstones, and limestones of generally deep water origin to a depth of about 8.200 ft (2,500 m) below the drill floor. Light-colored, medium- to coarse-grained sandstones with intercalated gray and brown shales, micritic limestones, and minor coal and dolomite predominate from about 8,200 to 12,300 ft (2,500 to 3,750 m). From about 12,300 ft (3,750 m) to the bottom, the section consists of limestones (including oolitic and intraclastic grainstones) with interbedded fine-to medium-grained sandstones, dark-colored fissile shales, and numerous coal seams. Biostratigraphic examination has shown that the section down to approximately 6,000 ft (1,830 m) is Tertiary. The boundary between the Lower and Upper Cretaceous sections is placed between 8,600 and 9,200 ft (2,620 and 2,800 m) by various workers. Placement of the Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary shows an even greater range based on different organisms; it is placed variously between 12,250 and 13,450 ft (3,730 and 5,000 m). The oldest unit penetrated in the well is considered to be Upper Jurassic (Kimmeridgian) by some workers and Middle Jurassic (Callovian) by others. The Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic parts of the section represent nonmarine to shallow-marine shelf sedimentation. Upper Cretaceous and Tertiary units reflect generally deeper water conditions at the B-3 well site and show a general transition from deposition at shelf to slope water depths. Examination of cores, well cuttings, and electric logs indicates that potential hydrocarbon-reservoir units are present throughout the Jurassic and Cretaceous section. Porous and moderately permeable limestones and sandstones have been found in the Jurassic section, and significant thicknesses of sandstone with porosities as high as 30 percent and permeabilities in excess of 100 md have been encountered in the Cretaceous interval from about 7,000 to 12,000 ft (2,130 to 3,650 m). Studies of organic geochemistry, vitrinite reflectance, and color alteration of visible organic matter indicate that the Tertiary section, especially in its upper part, contains organic-carbon-rich sediments that are good potential oil source rocks. However, this part of the section is thermally immature and is unlikely to have acted as a source rock anywhere in the area of the B-3 well. The Cretaceous section is generally lean in organic carbon, the organic matter which is present is generally gas-prone, and the interval is thermally immature (although the lowest part of this section is approaching thermal maturity). The deepest part of the well, the Jurassic section, shows the onset of thermal maturity. The lower half of the Jurassic rocks has high organic-carbon contents with generally gas-prone organic matter. This interval is therefore considered to be an excellent possible gas source; it has a very high methane content. The combination of gas-prone source rocks, thermal maturity, significant gas shows in the well at 15,750 ft (4,801 m) and porous reservoir rocks in the deepest parts of the well indicate a considerable potential for gas production from the Jurassic section in the area of the COST No. B-3 well. Wells drilled farther downslope from the B03 site may encounter more fully marine or deeper marine sections that may have a greater potential for oil (rather than gas) generation.

mid-Atlantic continental slope area↗

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Sandy along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2012

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of water-level and barometric pressure sensors at 224 locations along the Atlantic coast from Virginia to Maine to continuously record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. These records were greatly supplemented by an extensive post-flood high-water mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign from November to December 2012 involving more than 950 HWMs. Both efforts were undertaken as part of a coordinated federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

Data Series↗

Structural framework of United States Atlantic outer continental shelf north of Cape Hatteras

To assess the area’s hydrocarbon potential, regional geologic and geophysical studies are being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine the structural framework of the United States Atlantic outer continental shelf (AOCS) north of Cape Hatteras. Preliminary interpretations of geophysical data suggest that the buried ridge under the eastern edge of the AOCS in the Baltimore Canyon trough area is deeper and farther west than previously suspected. Although it is not observed under the seaward extension of the Cape Fear arch, this ridge can be traced from the south side of the Baltimore Canyon trough northeastward toward the eastern edge of the Georges Bank trough. In the Baltimore Canyon trough area, the ridge seems to be fault controlled and to form the eastern edge of a Mesozoic depocenter in which approximately 12 km of relatively undisturbed post-Paleozoic sediments accumulated. Below a depth of 6 km, rocks previously considered to be crystalline basement instead may be carbonate and/or evaporite sequences of Jurassic age or older which overlie an even deeper crystalline basement. More than 8 km of sediments are present beneath the continental shelf on Georges Bank. The preliminary regional geophysical studies indicate that thick marine sedimentary sections and geologic structures favorable for the accumulation of petroleum apparently exist under the AOCS off the northeastern part of the United States.

Atlantic outer continental shelf↗

Summary report on the regional geology, environmental considerations for development, petroleum potential, and estimates of undiscovered recoverable oil and gas resources of the United States southeastern Atlantic continental margin in the area of proposed oil and gas lease sale No. 78

This report summarizes our general knowledge of the geology and petroleum potential, as well as potential problems and hazards associated with development of petroleum resources, of the area proposed for nominations for lease sale number 78. This area includes the U.S. eastern continental margin from the mouth of Chesapeake Bay to approximately Cape Canaveral, Florida, including the upper Continental Slope and inner Blake Plateau. The area for possible sales and the previous areas leased are shown in figure 1; physiographic features of the region are shown in figure 2. Six exploration wells have been drilled within the proposed lease area (figs. 3 and 4) but no commercial discoveries have been made. All six wells were drilled on the Continental Shelf in the Southeast Georgia Embayment. No commercial production has been obtained onshore in the region. The areas already drilled have thin sedimentary sections, and the deeper rocks are dominantly continental facies. Petroleum formation may have been hindered by a lack of organic material and sufficient burial for thermal maturation. Analysis of drill and seismic profiling data presented here, however, indicates that a much thicker sedimentary rock section containing a much higher proportion of marine deposits exists seaward of the exploratory wells on the Continental Shelf. These geologic conditions imply that the offshore basins may be more favorable environments for generating petroleum.

Open-File Report↗

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) culture manual

The primary objective of the Atlantic Salmon Research Program established at the U.S. Geological Survey Tunison Laboratory of Aquatic Science as mandated by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative is to restore Atlantic salmon (Linnaeus, 1758; Salmo salar ) into Lake Ontario. This objective focuses on evaluating the survival of stocked Atlantic salmon in current Lake Ontario conditions to create a genetic strain that is robust to overcome current physiological and physical barriers. To complete this goal, new and innovative hatchery techniques based on past successful methods and protocols to grow Atlantic salmon to various life stages are described in this standard operating manual.

Techniques and Methods↗

Interpretations from multichannel seismic-reflection profiles of the deep crust crossing South Carolina and Georgia from the Appalachian Mountains to the Atlantic Coast

Over the past decade, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been investigating the cause of the Charleston, S.C., earthquake of 1886 and the likelihood of future earthquakes of similar magnitude (m b 6.9–7.2, Bollinger, 1977). As part of that work, multichannel reflection surveys were started in 1979 in the Charleston area, on 1 and (Behrendt and others, 1981; Hamilton and others, 1983) and offshore (Behrendt and others, 1983). The data for lines across the continental margin were tied into the USGS offshore seismic grid in the area discussed by Dillon and others (1979). At about the same time (1978–79), Consortium for Continental Reflection Profiling (COCORP) lines in Georgia and in the Charleston, S. C., area were recorded (Cook and others, 1979; Cook and others, 1981; Schilt and others, 1983). The COCORP data for Georgia (Cook and others, 1979) and other reflection data to the northeast, as discussed by Harris and Bayer (1979), indicated the presence of the Appalachian décollement, extending seaward from the Appalachian Mountains. The authors of these papers inferred that the Appalachian décollement might extend across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain to the continental shelf. Subsequently, Iverson and Smithson (1982) suggested, on the basis of their reprocessing of the COCORP line in Georgia, that the décollement was rooted in the area of the Kings Mountain and the Carolina slate belts. The multichannel seismic-reflection data for the Charleston, S. C., area (Behrendt and others, 1981, 1983; Schilt and others, 1983) provided evidence, particularly strong offshore, of the existence of a reflecting surface at a depth of 11.4±1.5 km that was suggested as a décollement. Behrendt and others (1981, 1983) suggested that the Charleston earthquake of 1886 might have been caused by movement on the décollement or on associated listric faults. Seeber and Armbruster (1981) suggested that movement on the Appalachian décollement, if it continued coastward to Charleston, might have caused the Charleston earthquake of 1886. The best determined focal depths for recent seismicity, from data recorded by a seismograph network operated by the USGS in the Charleston, S. C., area since 1973, are shallower than 13+2 km (Tarr and others, 1981; and Tarr and Rhea, 1983), or above the suggested décollement. The seismic-reflection data have also shown the existence of several Triassic (?) basins beneath the Coastal Plain Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic sedimentary rock section (Behrendt and others, 1981; Behrendt, 1983; Costain and Glover, 1983; Hamilton and others, 1983; Petersen and others, 1984). The basins, in several cases, appear to be bounded by high-angle normal faults. Some of these faults may have been reactivated in Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic time as apparently reverse faults. Also they are suggested to be listric onto the décollement, thereby bearing a causal relation to Charleston seismicity (Behrendt, 1983; Behrendt and others, 1983). The question of whether the Appalachian décollement is continuous to the coast is, therefore, important not only for the general understanding of the tectonics of the southeastern United States but for an understanding of the earthquake-hazard question as well. For these reasons, three long, deep-crustal, multichannel seismic-reflection profiles (S4, S6, and S8) were obtained by the USGS to address the problem. This report presents illustrations of interpretations of the profiles discussed by Behrendt (in press). The Appalachian décollement does not appear continuous from the Appalachian Mountains to the coast but rather appears to extend southeastward only to the Carolina slate belt. A series of reflections on lines S4, S6, and S8 and on the COCORP line is interpreted as evidence of southeastward-dipping imbricate faults, from the Brevard fault on the northwest to beyond the Augusta fault, which marks the southeastern extent of the Eastern Piedmont fault zone. The Carolina slate belt is characterized on the four seismic profiles by a complex series of diffractions and reflections extending from less than 1 s to 8 s. These arrivals are possibly the result of layering in the metasedimentary rocks complexly disrupted by the imbricate faults. A number of Triassic (?) basins are apparent in the reflection data for the rifted Charleston terrane identified from low-gradient magnetic anomalies.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

Metadata for ReVA logistic regression dataset

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program, has developed a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, ground-water quality and vulnerability assessments. The Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program goals are to develop and demonstrate approaches to comprehensive, regional-scale assessments that effectively inform water-resources managers and decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated environmental risks. The U.S. Geological Survey is developing and exploring the use of statistical probability models to characterize the relation between ground-water quality and geographic factors in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Available water-quality data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program studies conducted in the Mid-Atlantic Region were used in association with geographic data (land cover, geology, soils, and others) to develop logistic-regression equations that use explanatory variables to predict the presence of a selected water-quality parameter exceeding specified management concentration thresholds. The resulting logistic-regression equations were transformed to determine the probability, P(X), of a water-quality parameter exceeding a specified management threshold. Additional statistical procedures modified by the U.S. Geological Survey were used to compare the observed values to model-predicted values at each sample point. In addition, procedures to evaluate the confidence of the model predictions and estimate the uncertainty of the probability value were developed and applied. The resulting logistic-regression models were applied to the Mid-Atlantic Region to predict the spatial probability of nitrate concentrations exceeding specified management thresholds. These thresholds are usually set or established by regulators or managers at national or local levels. At management thresholds of 1 milligram per liter, and 3 milligrams per liter, the probability of nitrate concentrations exceeding these levels is greater than 50 percent (.50) throughout much of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This includes extensive areas throughout central Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern Pennsylvania and the Delmarva Peninsula. In addition, extensive areas in North Carolina and Virginia also have high probabilities of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding management thresholds of 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter. The mapped areas showing a high predicted probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding 1 milligram per liter and 3 milligrams per liter correspond to areas that are mapped as cultivated land cover overlying carbonate rocks. At a management threshold of 10 milligrams per liter (corresponding to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standard for nitrate in drinking water of 10 milligrams per liter), the predicted probability of nitrate concentrations in ground water exceeding this level are low for most of the Mid-Atlantic Region except for the Delmarva Peninsula, southeastern Pennsylvania, and areas mapped as carbonate rocks in Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

Open-File Report↗