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USGS2013

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of <10 organisms with body size >50 μm per m 3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2006

Catastrophe, recovery and range limitation in NE Pacific kelp forests: a large-scale perspective

The 1997–98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record and resulted in widespread losses of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera (Agardh) along the west coast of North America. Drawing on a rich history of studies that have shown abnormally large waves and warm nutrient-poor water associated with El Niños to negatively impact giant kelp populations at some locations in southern and Baja California, we examined (1) how these impacts scale up when considered across the species’ geographic range in the NE Pacific Ocean and (2) if these impacts are generalizable over broad spatial scales. Working at 56 sites in 14 study locations over a 3 yr period (1997 to 2000), we examined how giant kelp populations were impacted by and recovered following the 1997–98 El Niño over a ~1500 km span along the west coast of North America. Our results indicate that while nearly all giant kelp disappeared from the southern one-third of the species’ range along the coast of Baja California, Mexico, and heavy losses occurred throughout the central one-third of the species’ range in southern California, USA, only minor impacts were observed throughout the northern one-third of the species’ range in central California. Further, although highly variable among regions, these impacts were similar and generalizable among locations within each region. Our results also suggest that, as has been observed in local-scale studies, this large-scale variability in giant kelp mortality was driven by large-scale patterns in ocean temperature (nutrient concentration) and wave intensity. Recovery following El Niño, in contrast, was variable at multiple spatial scales and although not directly tested here, presumably influenced by numerous factors such as proximity to upwelling areas, competition with other algae, grazing, and propagule availability. Further, variability in the rates of recovery among locations resulted in a generally slow recovery of giant kelp throughout most of Baja California, and residual large-scale impacts of the El Niño were still evident 2 yr after the El Niño ended. As global climate change may lead to increases in the frequency and intensity of El Niños, our findings have broad implications for the ways in which ecosystems might be expected to respond to them and provide a measure by which their impacts to giant kelp ecosystems may be compared among events.

Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2023

Techniques for restoring damaged Mojave and western Sonoran ecosystems, including those for threatened desert tortoises and Joshua trees

Ecological restoration has potential for contributing to conservation activities for threatened Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia , Y. jaegeriana ) and their broader ecosystems in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts. To be effective, restoration actions deployed strategically need to halt and reverse habitat degradation, replenish or enhance resources used by both species (e.g., large shrubs for protection of tortoises and nurse plants facilitating recruitment of Joshua tree seedlings), and ideally foster resilience during likely future environmental changes. We synthesized restoration techniques and their effectiveness in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts, provide estimated costs of candidate techniques, and anticipate future research needs for effective restoration in changing climates and environments. Over 50 published studies in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts demonstrate that restoration can improve soil features (e.g., biocrusts), increase cover of native perennial and annual plants, enhance native seed retention and seed banks, and reduce risk of fires to conserve mature shrubland habitat. We placed restoration techniques into three categories: restoration of site environments, revegetation, and management actions to limit further disturbance and encourage recovery. Within these categories, 11 major restoration techniques (and their variations) were evaluated by at least one published study and range from geomorphic (e.g., reestablishing natural topographic patterns) and abiotic structural treatments (e.g., vertical mulching) to active revegetation (e.g., outplanting, seeding). For example, 16 outplanting studies assessed performance of 46 species to begin identifying top-performing species, associated treatments (e.g., protection from herbivory) required to aid outplant survival, and potential for outplants to trigger formation of self-sustaining populations. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), a shrub that tortoises use for cover and that serves as a nurse plant for Joshua tree recruitment, achieved at least 50% survival in five of eight studies. Estimated costs for restoring desert habitats varied primarily with the severity of the disturbance, site factors including the diversity of vegetation that was lost, logistical factors such as accessibility of sites (influencing transportation costs), and the cost-effectiveness of the restoration techniques chosen. The review highlights six major research and adaptive management needs for advancing desert habitat restoration. These needs include: 1) continued development of innovative techniques and bet-hedging approaches to provide managers with “tool boxes” of candidate treatments to deploy in dynamic environmental and management conditions, 2) identifying how to optimize spatial deployment of limited restoration resources, 3) developing practical techniques for reducing non-native annual grasses across spatial scales, 4) improving linkages between habitat enhancements and short- and long-term indicators of tortoise usage and responses and Joshua tree population sustainability, 5) mitigating multiple, interacting stressors with cumulative impacts, and 6) integrating biotic (e.g., seeding) and abiotic (e.g., fencing, shade structures) treatments to complement each other at site and landscape scales in dynamic climates and environments. It is possible that bet-hedging approaches employing multiple treatment types (or phased treatments across years) and greater incorporation of abiotic treatments, which are less sensitive to timing of precipitation compared with biotic treatments, will become increasingly important under future climates projected to be drier and more variable. Existing research suggests that restoration can be deployed effectively even under adverse climatic conditions, but success requires identifying suitable techniques tailored to dynamic environments.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Sonora↗

USGS2014

Wildland fire ash: Production, composition and eco-hydro-geomorphic effects

Fire transforms fuels (i.e. biomass, necromass, soil organic matter) into materials with different chemical and physical properties. One of these materials is ash, which is the particulate residue remaining or deposited on the ground that consists of mineral materials and charred organic components. The quantity and characteristics of ash produced during a wildland fire depend mainly on (1) the total burned fuel (i.e. fuel load), (2) fuel type and (3) its combustion completeness. For a given fuel load and type, a higher combustion completeness will reduce the ash organic carbon content, increasing the relative mineral content, and hence reducing total mass of ash produced. The homogeneity and thickness of the ash layer can vary substantially in space and time and reported average thicknesses range from close to 0 to 50 mm. Ash is a highly mobile material that, after its deposition, may be incorporated into the soil profile, redistributed or removed from a burned site within days or weeks by wind and water erosion to surface depressions, footslopes, streams, lakes, reservoirs and, potentially, into marine deposits. Research on the composition, properties and effects of ash on the burned ecosystem has been conducted on material collected in the field after wildland and prescribed fires as well as on material produced in the laboratory. At low combustion completeness (typically T < 450 °C), ash is organic-rich, with organic carbon as the main component. At high combustion completeness (T > 450 °C), most organic carbon is volatized and the remaining mineral ash has elevated pH when in solution. It is composed mainly of calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, silicon and phosphorous in the form of inorganic carbonates, whereas at T > 580 °C the most common forms are oxides. Ash produced under lower combustion completeness is usually darker, coarser, and less dense and has a higher saturated hydraulic conductivity than ash with higher combustion completeness, although physical reactions with CO 2 and when moistened produce further changes in ash characteristics. As a new material present after a wildland fire, ash can have profound effects on ecosystems. It affects biogeochemical cycles, including the C cycle, not only within the burned area, but also globally. Ash incorporated into the soil increases temporarily soil pH and nutrient pools and changes physical properties such as albedo, soil texture and hydraulic properties including water repellency. Ash modifies soil hydrologic behavior by creating a two-layer system: the soil and the ash layer, which can function in different ways depending on (1) ash depth and type, (2) soil type and (3) rainfall characteristics. Key parameters are the ash's water holding capacity, hydraulic conductivity and its potential to clog soil pores. Runoff from burned areas carries soluble nutrients contained in ash, which can lead to problems for potable water supplies. Ash deposition also stimulates soil microbial activity and vegetation growth. Further work is needed to (1) standardize methods for investigating ash and its effects on the ecosystem, (2) characterize ash properties for specific ecosystems and wildland fire types, (3) determine the effects of ash on human and ecosystem health, especially when transported by wind or water, (4) investigate ash's controls on water and soil losses at slope and catchment scales, (5) examine its role in the C cycle, and (6) study its redistribution and fate in the environment.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2000

Managing wetlands for waterbirds: How managers can make a difference in improving habitat to support a North American Bird Conservation Plan

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystems in the world, yet they have suffered more loss and degradation than any other ecosystem. Not surprisingly, 50% (29 of 58) of all the bird species in the U. S. (excluding Hawaii and territories) that are listed either as federally threatened or endangered, or are on the U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service 1995 List of Migratory Nongame Birds of Management Concern, occupy wetland or aquatic habitats even though many remaining wetlands across the North American landscape already are managed primarily for waterbirds. Some of these wetlands are administered by federal and state entities (e.g., national wildlife refuges, national and state parks, state wetland management areas) or are maintained on private lands through federally supported restoration and enhancement programs (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program, Wetland Reserve Program, Waterfowl Production Areas, and Partners for Wildlife). Private organizations, such as the National Audubon Society, The Nature Conservancy, and private hunting clubs, also own wetland areas that are managed specifically to benefit wildlife. If management philosophies are altered to consider the entire complex of wetlands, many wetlands can provide benefits to a broad array of waterbirds, as opposed to just one or a few species. However, challenges for natural resource managers are in forming partnerships with owners-managers of wetlands where the objectives are not primarily wildlife oriented. These owners or managers need to be included in wetland training workshops in an attempt to educate them about wetland values and secondary wildlife benefits that may be derived in flooded agricultural lands, aquaculture ponds, altered coastal marshes (mosquito control), and salt evaporation ponds. In some cases, compensation for crop damages by wildlife may be a necessary part of any cooperative agreements. In the development of a North American Bird Conservation Plan we propose a four-step approach and recommend that emphasis be placed on working with Joint Ventures of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan to ensure that a diverse array of waterbird species will benefit. Efforts also should be devoted to developing similar partnerships in areas where important wetland resources exist but no Joint Ventures are planned.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) activities at the Department of the Interior

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) is responsible for protecting and managing the natural resources and heritage on almost 20% of the land in the United States. The DOI’s mission requires access to remotely sensed data over vast lands, including areas that are remote and potentially dangerous to access. Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) technology has the potential to enable the DOI to be a better steward of the land by: (1) Improving natural hazard forecasting and the analysis of the impacts. (2) Improving the understanding of climate change to better plan for likely impacts. (3) Developing precipitation and evaporation forecasting to better manage water resources. (4) Monitoring Arctic ice change and its impacts on ecosystems, coasts, and transportation. (5) Increasing safety and effectiveness of wildland fire management. (6) Enhancing search and rescue capabilities. (7) Broadening the abilities to monitor environmental or landscape conditions and changes. (8) Better understanding and protecting the Nation’s ecosystems. The initial operational testing and evaluations performed by the DOI have proven that UAS technology can be used to support many of the Department’s activities. UAS technology provides scientists a way to look longer, closer and more frequently at some of Earth’s most remote areas—places that were previously too dangerous or expensive to monitor in detail. The flexibility of operations and relative low cost to purchase and operate Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) enhances the ability to track long-term landscape and environmental change. The initial testing indicates the operational costs are approximately 10% of traditional manned aircraft. In addition, users can quickly assess landscape-altering events such as wildland fires, floods and volcanoes. UAS technology will allow the DOI to do more with less and in the process enhance the Department’s ability to provide unbiased scientific information to help stakeholders make informed decisions. It will also provide a digital baseline record that can be archived and used when monitoring future events or conditions. One possible future scenario has scientists carrying sUAS into the field allowing quick deployment and operation to observe the environment or for emergency response. This scenario could also include a persistent monitoring capability provided by a UAS that can stay airborne over a small geographic area for days or weeks, or possibly longer. While the DOI focus is on sUAS, the Department recognizes that larger UAS systems will also play a role in meeting its mission. The Department anticipates meeting long-duration or specialized acquisition commitments, such as state or national aerial photography, by collaboration with other agencies or through commercial contracts. Even though the DOI continues to evaluate UAS and sensor technology to meet the Department’s mission, some of its bureaus are already moving towards an operational capability. The authors fully anticipate that by 2020 UAS will emerge as one of the primary platforms for DOI remote sensing applications.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2022

Hawaiian forest bird conservation strategies for minimizing the risk of extinction: biological and biocultural considerations

The iconic forest birds of Hawai‘i are facing a conservation crisis. Across the Hawaiian Islands, native forest birds have been experiencing population declines that have accelerated in the last one to two decades. While habitat loss, invasive species, and non-native predators have negatively affected forest bird species for hundreds of years, and continue to do so, introduced diseases, particularly avian malaria, are the greatest threat to forest birds today. Further, climate change has increased temperatures in the high-elevation forests, facilitating the spread of disease into areas that were once largely disease-free. Rapid population declines have now (2022) pushed four Hawaiian honeycreeper species to the brink of extinction: the endangered ‘akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘akeke‘e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ) on Kaua‘i Island, and kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and ‘ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) on Maui Island. The biologists that study these birds strongly agree that without a rapid conservation response to the threat of increasing disease mortality there is a high probability these species will go extinct in the coming decade. To help evaluate alternative conservation strategies for minimizing the risk of extinction, we convened diverse groups of experts with broad experience in Hawai‘i forest birds and ecosystems, as well as the management approaches being considered, to assess the probability of success of alternative management actions. In addition to assessing this crisis from a biological perspective, we convened a group of Native Hawaiian participants that have a strong connection to the forest birds, forests, and the integration of their culture in natural and biocultural resource management. They give voice to the significance of forest birds to Native Hawaiians and provide their perspectives on alternative management actions. Broadly, the three alternative management actions being considered to prevent the extinction of forest birds from the increasing threat of disease are (1) landscape-level mosquito control through the Wolbachia incompatible insect technique, (2) captive care, and (3) conservation translocations. The two key components of the problem of preventing extinction in these four bird species is time and risk. For each species, very few individuals remain, and they are all in danger of imminent extinction. Each management action takes time to implement, which might exceed the actual time to extinction. Additionally, each of these conservation actions has potential benefits and inherent risks, as well as substantial uncertainty in terms of being successful. Native Hawaiian perspectives and considerations also vary across the conservation actions. The expert evaluations summarized in this report provide a broad assessment of conservation strategies that could be undertaken to prevent the extinction of ‘akikiki, ‘akeke‘e, kiwikiu, and ‘ākohekohe. While this report does not recommend specific actions, the information is intended to support decision-makers as they assess which, if any, conservation strategies to pursue.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Quantification of threats to bats at localized spatial scales for conservation and management

In a rapidly changing world, where species conservation needs vary by local habitat, concentrated conservation efforts at small spatial scales can be critical. Bats provide an array of value to the ecosystems they inhabit; many bat species are also of conservation concern. San Diego County, California, contains 22 of the 41 bat species that occur in the United States, 16 of which are on conservation watchlists. Thus, management of bat communities in San Diego County is a pressing need. Because bats exploit vast areas of the landscape and historical sampling strategies have shifted over time, a standardized way of prioritizing areas of the landscape for management would provide an integral asset to bat conservation. We leveraged long-term bat community survey data from sampling areas across San Diego County to prioritize areas with the most management need. We calculated two types of scores: species scores and threat scores. Species scores incorporated richness and conservation status, and threat scores included landscape level threats that bats could encounter. We found that urbanization, the presence of artificial lights, and areas sampled on unconserved land were all significantly associated with decreases in species richness. Further, using species and threat scores, each sampling area was placed into one of four conservation categories, in order from greatest to least conservation need, ranging from highest priority (high species score, high threat score) to lowest (low species score, low threat score). Additionally, we focused on sampling areas in which Townsend’s big-eared bat ( Corynorhinus townsendii ) and/or pallid bat ( Antrozous pallidus ) occurred. These two species are of exceptional conservation concern in San Diego County and across the western United States. We identified urbanization, the presence of artificial lights, and areas sampled on unconserved land as threats that were all significantly associated with the absence of Townsend’s big-eared bat, but not pallid bat. The strategy, methodology, and solutions proposed in our study should assist bat conservation and management efforts wherever bats occur, and can be extended to other species that require conservation attention.

California↗

USGS2011

Chapter 11: Management considerations

We conducted an ecoregional assessment of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) ecosystems in the Wyoming Basins and surrounding regions (WBEA) to determine broad-scale species-environmental relationships. Our goal was to assess the potential influence from threats to the sagebrush ecosystem on associated wildlife through the use of spatially explicit occurrence and abundance models. These models were developed using information from field surveys conducted along gradients of vegetation productivity and human disturbance integrated with spatial datasets delineating land cover, topography, and human land use in the WBEA area. Our evaluation included all sagebrush-associated wildlife species across multiple taxa whose habitat requirements and distributions were appropriate for modeling and interpretation at the broad scales of this assessment. Dominant land uses were included in delineating the human footprint. Although overall levels of the cumulative human footprint were generally low across the WBEA area, oil and gas activities have decreased the amount of shrubland habitats and increased fragmentation within development regions over the last century. At the scale of this assessment, the influence of humans was primarily expressed as an indirect function through actions that altered or reduced available habitat. We identified 65 plant species of conservation concern; 28 of 40 vertebrate species associated with sagebrush were species of concern in at least one state. We modeled environmental relationships for 15 wildlife species from data collected from surveys conducted in 2005 and 2006 designed to sample multiple species and taxa along land cover and land use gradients across the WBEA area. Occurrence of 3 species was negatively influenced by human features; anthropogenic features were a positive influence for 3 species, 8 had a mixed response, and 1 had no measurable relationship. Sagebrush land cover, considered in all wildlife models, was important to most species but differed among species in the proportion of sagebrush required and at what spatial extent. For most species examined, the spatial extent at which sagebrush cover influenced the probability of occupancy was much larger than an individual’s home range size. Exotic plants were strongly associated with human features, particularly roads, which may function as linear vectors to facilitate spread of exotic plants across the WBEA area. We used coarse-grained spatial and thematic data because of the large spatial extent (350,000 km 2 ) of the WBEA area and the need for a consistent land cover map for the region. Distributions of species occurrence or abundance mapped in this assessment need to be corroborated with information on population demographics. In addition, our results should be interpreted relative to assumptions inherent in broad-scale ecoregional assessments. Our assessment provides managers with extensive and detailed maps of occurrence and abundance, allowing for status assessments of native species, diversity and richness, natural communities, and ecological systems present within the Wyoming Basins.

Wyoming↗

USGS1998

Water quality in the central Columbia Plateau, Washington and Idaho, 1992-95

Water quality in the Central Columbia Plateau of eastern Washington and western Idaho has been adversely affected by agriculture, especially in irrigated areas, according to the results of a five-year investigation by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). Some improvements, however, are noticeable, such as less sediment being washed into streams. These improvements may be the result of increased use of best management practices (BMPs) by area farmers. Areas with intensive fertilizer use and irrigation, such as in the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project (CBIP), showed the greatest impacts on ground-water quality. (The CBIP includes parts of Franklin, Grant, and Adams counties in eastern Washington.) <Shallow wells, generally those less than 150 feet deep, are the most susceptible to contamination, the USGS report says. A reassuring aspect of this finding, however, is that many public water supplies draw from wells at greater depths and are less susceptible to contamination from agricultural practices. From the standpoint of human health, we were most concerned about checking for nitrate and pesticides in drinking water,' said Sandy Williamson, USGS hydrologist and chief of the study. 'We found nitrate levels exceeding the maximum contaminant level in about 20 percent of all wells.' (A maximum contaminant level-or MCL-is a drinking water regulatory standard that is set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.) 'The story on pesticides is a mixed bag,' Williamson said. 'We found at least one pesticide in nearly half of the drinking water wells sampled, but pesticide levels were only a very small fraction of their MCLs.' As a cautionary note, however, Williamson said that about half of the pesticides detected in Central Columbia Plateau wells do not have MCLs established. A lack of information makes it difficult to assess the significance of finding pesticides in drinking water. 'As scientists, we don't know enough yet about what happens when these pesticides are combined,' he said. 'In some of the very shallow wells that the USGS installed for monitoring purposes, we found up to seven different pesticides.' Encouraging news is that none of the newer pesticides, which break down more rapidly in the environment, were found at concentrations exceeding MCLs. Compounds that exceed drinking water standards were found in only 1 percent of the wells sampled-and those compounds have not been sold as pesticides since the mid-1980s. However, agricultural impacts on water quality go beyond the concerns for drinking water-the aquatic ecosystem of the plateau also has been significantly affected. 'Very little surface water is used for drinking water in this area, but fish are harmed by decreased stream-water quality,' said Mark Munn, the biologist for the USGS study. 'Pesticides and habitat degradation are the main concerns.' He noted that stream sampling by the USGS showed seven currently used pesticides at concentrations above the limits recommended for protecting aquatic life. Soil erosion, a long-term problem for farmers in the Palouse River Basin, transports some soil to streams, degrading habitat and carrying with it older pesticides and their breakdown products. A breakdown product of the banned insecticide DDT was found in both streambed sediment and bottom fish at concentrations exceeding guidelines for the protection of aquatic life. 'Another problem for fish habitat is excessive plant growth caused by high levels of nutrients in streams,' said Munn, who explained that these nutrients enter streams in runoff from agricultural fields and discharge from urban wastewater treatment plants. Some agricultural practices, such as allowing cattle to graze near streams, are associated with higher rates of erosion. However, increased use of BMPs may improve water quality of the plateau. The USGS study showed that use of sprinkler or drip rather than furrow irrigation has decreased soil erosion in the CBIP area. In the Palouse, erosion

Circular↗

USGS2019

A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON)

The General Lake Model (GLM) is a one-dimensional open-source code designed to simulate the hydrodynamics of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands. GLM was developed to support the science needs of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), a network of researchers using sensors to understand lake functioning and address questions about how lakes around the world respond to climate and land use change. The scale and diversity of lake types, locations, and sizes, and the expanding observational datasets created the need for a robust community model of lake dynamics with sufficient flexibility to accommodate a range of scientific and management questions relevant to the GLEON community. This paper summarizes the scientific basis and numerical implementation of the model algorithms, including details of sub-models that simulate surface heat exchange and ice cover dynamics, vertical mixing, and inflow–outflow dynamics. We demonstrate the suitability of the model for different lake types that vary substantially in their morphology, hydrology, and climatic conditions. GLM supports a dynamic coupling with biogeochemical and ecological modelling libraries for integrated simulations of water quality and ecosystem health, and options for integration with other environmental models are outlined. Finally, we discuss utilities for the analysis of model outputs and uncertainty assessments, model operation within a distributed cloud-computing environment, and as a tool to support the learning of network participants.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2015

Predicting the risk of toxic blooms of golden alga from cell abundance and environmental covariates

Golden alga ( Prymnesium parvum ) is a toxic haptophyte that has caused considerable ecological damage to marine and inland aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Studies focused primarily on laboratory cultures have indicated that toxicity is poorly correlated with the abundance of golden alga cells. This relationship, however, has not been rigorously evaluated in the field where environmental conditions are much different. The ability to predict toxicity using readily measured environmental variables and golden alga abundance would allow managers rapid assessments of ichthyotoxicity potential without laboratory bioassay confirmation, which requires additional resources to accomplish. To assess the potential utility of these relationships, several a priori models relating lethal levels of golden alga ichthyotoxicity to golden alga abundance and environmental covariates were constructed. Model parameters were estimated using archived data from four river basins in Texas and New Mexico (Colorado, Brazos, Red, Pecos). Model predictive ability was quantified using cross-validation, sensitivity, and specificity, and the relative ranking of environmental covariate models was determined by Akaike Information Criterion values and Akaike weights. Overall, abundance was a generally good predictor of ichthyotoxicity as cross validation of golden alga abundance-only models ranged from &sim; 80% to &sim; 90% (leave-one-out cross-validation). Environmental covariates improved predictions, especially the ability to predict lethally toxic events (i.e., increased sensitivity), and top-ranked environmental covariate models differed among the four basins. These associations may be useful for monitoring as well as understanding the abiotic factors that influence toxicity during blooms.

New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS1998

Riparian zones as havens for exotic plant species in the central grasslands

In the Central Grasslands of the United States, we hypothesized that riparian zones high in soil fertility would contain more exotic plant species than upland areas of low soil fertility. Our alternate hypothesis was that riparian zones high in native plant species richness and cover would monopolize available resources and resist invasion by exotic species. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data from 40 1 m2subplots (nested in four 1000 m2 plots) in both riparian and upland sites at four study areas in Colorado, Wyoming, and South Dakota (a total of 320 1 m2subplots and 32 1000 m2 plots). At the 1 m2 scale, mean foliar cover of native species was significantly greater (P < 0.001) in riparian zones (36.6% ?? 1.7%) compared to upland sites (28.7% ?? 1.5%), but at this small scale there were no consistent patterns of native and exotic species richness among the four management areas. Mean exotic species cover was slightly higher in upland sites compared to riparian sites (9.0% ?? 3.8% versus 8.2% ?? 3.0% cover). However, mean exotic species richness and cover were greater in the riparian zones than upland sites in three of four management areas. At the 1000 m2 scale, mean exotic species richness was also significantly greater (P < 0.05) in riparian zones (7.8 ?? 1.0 species) compared to upland sites (4.8 ?? 1.0 species) despite the heavy invasion of one upland site. For all 32 plots combined, 21% of the variance in exotic species richness was explained by positive relationships with soil % silt (t = 1.7, P = 0.09) and total foliar cover (t = 2.4, P = 0.02). Likewise, 26% of the variance in exotic species cover (log10 cover) was explained by positive relationships with soil % silt (t = 2.3, P = 0.03) and total plant species richness (t = 2.4, P = 0.02). At landscape scales (four 1000 m2 plots per type combined), total foliar cover was significantly and positively correlated with exotic species richness (r = 0.73, P < 0.05) and cover (r = 0.74, P < 0.05). Exotic species cover (log10 cover) was positively correlated with log10% N in the soil (r = 0.61, P = 0.11) at landscape scales. On average, we found that 85% (??5%) of the total number of exotic species in the sampling plots of a given management area could be found in riparian zones, while only 50% (??8%) were found in upland plots. We conclude that: (1 species-rich and productive riparian zones are particularly invasible in grassland ecosystems; and (2) riparian zones may act as havens, corridors, and sources of exotic plant invasions for upland sites and pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Plant Ecology↗

USGS2022

What common-garden experiments tell us about climate responses in plants

Common garden experiments are indoor or outdoor plantings of species or populations collected from multiple distinct geographic locations, grown together under shared conditions. These experiments examine a range of questions for theory and application using a variety of methods for analysis. The eight papers of this special feature comprise a cross section of contemporary approaches, summarized and synthesized here by what they tell us about the relationships between climate-related trait spectra and fitness optima. Four of the eight papers are based on field experiments in prairie, desert, Mediterranean and boreal biomes. Representative of many common garden experiments, these experiments reveal consistent evidence of traits varying with population climate provenance, but evidence of a tradeoff between growth and tolerance traits or of consistent fitness optimization at home is scant, in contrast to trait theory. Two synthesis papers highlight dominant patterns of trait divergence, including for an exotic invasive species. One theoretical paper warned that unknown kinship relationships between populations can result in the misidentification of adaptive trait divergence. A third synthesis paper formulated novel and ambitious goals for common-garden studies through including measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. The featured papers discuss multiple avenues for improving common garden studies. Genomic analysis, together with the quantification of kinship relationships, will continue to reveal the influence of environmental drivers on gene selection. Measuring a more complete set of fitness traits, especially for traits related to regeneration, will permit the development of projection models to explicitly link trait spectra, climate patterns and fitness consequences. More standardized data reporting will additionally improve abilities to synthesize findings across experiments. Testing population performance in competition with other species will produce more robust fitness comparisons between genotypes, especially for slower-growing genotypes in higher-resource environments. Adding gardens in and beyond climatic edge locations will furthermore strengthen the understanding of population failure and species exclusion. Finally, there is unrealized potential in adding ecosystem-level observations to common-garden studies that will enhance integrative analysis across scales of biological organization and scientific domains. Synthesis . With novel, creative designs, data integration and synthesis, common garden experiments will continue to advance the understanding of trait ensembles interacting with climate across scales of biological organization, provide pivotal data for global change models and guide ecological applications such as restoration of habitats for rare and climate sensitive species.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2022

Parameterizing an aeolian erosion model for rangelands

Aeolian processes are fundamental to arid and semi-arid ecosystems, but modeling approaches are poorly developed for assessing impacts of management and environmental change on sediment transport rates over meaningful spatial and temporal scales. For model estimates to provide value, estimates of sediment flux that encapsulate intra- and inter-annual and spatial variability are needed. Further, it is important to quantify and communicate transparent estimates of model uncertainty to users. Here, we present a wind erosion and dust emission model parameterized for rangelands using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework. Modeled horizontal sediment flux was calibrated using data from five diverse grassland and shrubland sites from the USDA National Wind Erosion Research Network. Observations of wind speed, vegetation height, length of gaps between vegetation, and percent bare ground were used as model inputs. Horizontal sediment flux estimates from 10,000 independently selected parameter sets were compared to flux observations from 44 ∼ month-long collection periods to calculate a likelihood measure for each model. Results show good agreement for individual sampling periods across sites with few observations falling outside prediction bounds and a one-to-one relationship between median predictions and observations. Additionally, combined distributions of sediment flux estimates from all sample periods for a given site closely approximated the probability of observing a given flux at that site. These results suggest AERO effectively represents temporal variability in aeolian transport rates at rangeland sites and provides robust assessments suitable for assessing land health and better predicting changes in air quality and the impacts of land management activities.

Aeolian Research↗

USGS2019

Optimal spatial allocation of control effort to manage invasives in the face of imperfect detection and misclassification

Imperfect detection and misclassification errors are often ignored in the context of invasive species management. Here we present an approach that combines spatially explicit models and an optimization technique to design optimal search and destroy strategies based on noisy monitoring observations. We focus on two invasive plants, melaleuca ( Melaleuca quinquenervia ) and Old World climbing fern ( Lygodium microphyllum ), which continue to cause important damages to the Everglades ecosystem. We present a methodological framework that combines Hidden Markov Random Field (HMRF, initially developed for image analysis) and linear programming to optimally search for invasive species. A benefit of this approach is that it accounts for the spatial structure of the system by using a spatially explicit modeling approach (i.e. HMRF), and does not require repeated visits to model the probability of occurrence of species. We found on simulated cases that our approach can lead to substantial improvements in control efficiency when compared to state of the art model-free approaches. For example, in the case of the old world fern, simulations showed that the optimal strategy would allow managers to control up to 34% more sites than with model-free approaches that ignored misclassification and imperfect detection. For melaleuca it was possible to control up to 20% more sites. The vast increase in imagery data obtained from different sources (e.g. unmanned aerial systems, and satellite) provides great opportunities to improve management of natural resources by applying modern computational methods such as the one we present. Our approach can substantially increases the efficiency of invasive species control by accounting for imperfect detection, misclassification error and the spatial structure of the system. Our approach is applicable to other systems and problems, for example it could be applied to the control of plant pathogens, or optimal extraction of resources (e.g. minerals or biological resources).

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2025

Centering voices of scientists from marginalized backgrounds to understand experiences in climate adaptation science and inform action

Identifying and building solutions to help people and ecosystems adapt to climate change requires participation of all people; however, Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, including environmental sciences, continue to lack diversity. To address this issue, many institutions have increased programming to recruit and retain people from historically marginalized backgrounds in STEM fields. Institutions use surveys to evaluate the experiences of community members and identify areas for improvement; however, surveys often summarize and reflect majority perspectives and disregard voices of historically marginalized individuals. In June 2021, a survey of graduate students, postdocs, faculty, staff, and researchers affiliated with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) evaluated their experiences of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ) using Likert-based and long-answer questions. We analyzed the results as a whole, but also focused on the responses of people who self-identified as members of a marginalized group (“marginalized respondents”) in climate adaptation science to center their voices. Marginalized respondents reported being motivated to enter climate adaptation science to improve society and the environment rather than for intellectual curiosity, which motivated one third of non-marginalized respondents. Once in science, marginalized respondents reported feeling less supported and comfortable at work and were more likely to have considered leaving science and academia in the last year. Long-answer responses of marginalized respondents indicated distrust in the ability of leadership and existing DEIJ initiatives to effectively tackle systemic issues and emphasized the importance of focusing on equity and inclusion before recruitment. Marginalized respondents identified additional funding to support existing DEIJ efforts and undergraduates as priorities. By allowing participants to self-identify as part of a marginalized group, we were able to highlight experiences and needs without risking exposure based on race, gender, disability status, or sexual orientation. This approach can be applied to other small organizations with limited demographic diversity.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2026

Ecological transformations of coastal wetlands of the conterminous United States in response to contemporaneous sea-level rise

Coastal wetlands are among the most important ecosystems on the planet but are increasingly imperiled by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In the past, biogeomorphic feedbacks have allowed coastal wetlands to adjust vertically and persist through periods of accelerated SLR. Recent rates of SLR are faster than any in recent geologic history, making the fate of coastal wetlands highly uncertain. Here, we synthesize surface elevation table marker-horizon data from 442 stations in coastal wetlands across the conterminous United States to evaluate if they are largely persisting in the face of accelerated SLR, or if they are undergoing ecological transformations of submergence and/or migration. Across the conterminous United States, 11% of coastal wetlands in this sample are on a trajectory of submergence whereas 73% of sites are lagging SLR, but may be able to migrate upslope, and 16% of sites are gaining elevation at rates which exceed SLR indicating persistence and an ability to migrate seaward. Vulnerability of these systems to ecological transformation varies across the three coasts of the conterminous United States which, span large biogeomorphic gradients. These results serve as one of the first national syntheses of coastal wetland elevation trends and may help focus conservation and restoration efforts in a rapidly changing future.

conterminous United States↗