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Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

Missouri↗

Identifying potential invasion hotspots for non-native fluvial fishes throughout the conterminous United States

Identifying habitats that non-native fluvial fishes are likely to invade provides information for proactive management, conservation planning, and understanding the ecology of biological invasions. We identified streams in the conterminous United States with high invasion risk from 20 non-native fluvial fish species. Specifically, we (1) developed habitat suitability models for each species using nine natural and six anthropogenic predictors within nine large ecoregions, identifying the potential invasion hotspots; (2) evaluated the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic predictors for each species; and (3) assessed potential invasion risk to protected stream habitats. Predicted invasion hotspots included much of Florida, coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana, and areas surrounding major metropolitan centers such as Chicago, New York, and Phoenix. Model predictions indicate that goldfish ( Carassius auratus ), pirapitinga ( Piaractus brachypomus ), and pond loach ( Misgurnus anguillicaudatus ) could occupy extensive suitable habitats across the conterminous United States. The most influential natural predictor across species was network catchment area (a surrogate for stream size), while the most influential anthropogenic predictor was human population density. Goldfish were predicted to be present in protected areas across all nine ecoregions, highlighting their high invasion potential. Collectively, our results provide critical information on regions vulnerable to invasion and the species most likely to become established and identify areas at risk of invasion within protected landscapes.

conterminous United States↗

The relative importance of wetland area versus habitat heterogeneity for promoting species richness and abundance of wetland birds in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Recent work has suggested that a tradeoff exists between habitat area and habitat heterogeneity, with a moderate amount of heterogeneity supporting greatest species richness. Support for this unimodal relationship has been mixed and has differed among habitats and taxa. We examined the relationship between habitat heterogeneity and species richness after accounting for habitat area in glacially formed wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region in the United States at both local and landscape scales. We tested for area–habitat heterogeneity tradeoffs in wetland bird species richness, the richness of groups of similar species, and in species’ abundances. We then identified the habitat relationships for individual species and the relative importance of wetland area vs. habitat heterogeneity and other wetland characteristics. We found that habitat area was the primary driver of species richness and abundance. Additional variation in richness and abundance could be explained by habitat heterogeneity or other wetland and landscape characteristics. Overall avian species richness responded unimodally to habitat heterogeneity, suggesting an area–heterogeneity tradeoff. Group richness and abundance metrics showed either unimodal or linear relationships with habitat heterogeneity. Habitat heterogeneity indices at local and landscape scales were important for some, but not all, species and avian groups. Both abundance of individual species and species richness of most avian groups were higher on publicly owned wetlands than on privately owned wetlands, on restored wetlands than natural wetlands, and on permanent wetlands than on wetlands of other classes. However, we found that all wetlands examined, regardless of ownership, restoration status, and wetland class, supported wetland-obligate birds. Thus, protection of all wetland types contributes to species conservation. Our results support conventional wisdom that protection of large wetlands is a priority but also indicate that maintaining habitat heterogeneity will enhance biodiversity and support higher populations of individual species.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Dry forest restoration and unassisted native tree seedling recruitment at Auwahi, Maui

Efforts to restore highly degraded but biologically significant forests draw from a limited toolbox. With less than 10% of their former distribution remaining, Hawaiian dry forests, though critically endangered, remain important biological and cultural refugia. At restoration onset (1997), vegetation of restoration and control areas of degraded Auwahi dry forest, Maui Island, was similar, dominated by nonnative graminoids (restoration 78.3%; control 75.4%), especially Cenchrus ( Pennisetum ) clandestinus . In 2012, unrestored control area vegetation was basically unchanged. In contrast, in the restoration area in 2012, native shrub cover increased from 3.1% to 81.9%, and cover of nonnative graminoids declined from 75.4% to 3.3%. In 2012, nonplanted seedlings of 14 of 22 native tree species and six of seven native shrub species were observed in restoration plots; the majority (99%) were five native ( Dodonaea viscosa, Coprosma foliosa, Osteomeles anthyllidifolia, Chamaesyce celastoides, Nestegis sandwicensis ) and one nonnative species ( Bocconia frutescens ). By 2012, stem counts of native woody plants had increased from 12.4 to 135.0/100 m 2 , and native species diversity increased from 2.4 to 6.6/100 m 2 . By 2012, seven rare dry forest tree species, Charpentiera obovata, Nothocestrum latifolium, Ochrosia haleakalae, Pleomele auwahiensis, Santalum ellipticum, S. haleakalae , and Streblus pendulinus , had established seedlings and/or saplings within the restoration site, especially notable because natural reproduction is largely lacking elsewhere. Without development and implementation of appropriate management strategies, remaining Hawaiian dry forest will likely disappear within the next century. Multicomponent restoration incorporating ungulate exclusion, weed control, and outplanting as described here offers one strategy to conserve and restore tracts of high-value but degraded forests.

Hawai'i↗

Hydrocarbon Source Rocks in the Deep River and Dan River Triassic Basins, North Carolina

This report presents an interpretation of the hydrocarbon source rock potential of the Triassic sedimentary rocks of the Deep River and Dan River basins, North Carolina, based on previously unpublished organic geochemistry data. The organic geochemical data, 87 samples from 28 drill holes, are from the Sanford sub-basin (Cumnock Formation) of the Deep River basin, and from the Dan River basin (Cow Branch Formation). The available organic geochemical data are biased, however, because many of the samples collected for analyses by industry were from drill holes that contained intrusive diabase dikes, sills, and sheets of early Mesozoic age. These intrusive rocks heated and metamorphosed the surrounding sediments and organic matter in the black shale and coal bed source rocks and, thus, masked the source rock potential that they would have had in an unaltered state. In places, heat from the intrusives generated over-mature vitrinite reflectance (%Ro) profiles and metamorphosed the coals to semi-anthracite, anthracite, and coke. The maximum burial depth of these coal beds is unknown, and depth of burial may also have contributed to elevated thermal maturation profiles. The organic geochemistry data show that potential source rocks exist in the Sanford sub-basin and Dan River basin and that the sediments are gas prone rather than oil prone, although both types of hydrocarbons were generated. Total organic carbon (TOC) data for 56 of the samples are greater than the conservative 1.4% TOC threshold necessary for hydrocarbon expulsion. Both the Cow Branch Formation (Dan River basin) and the Cumnock Formation (Deep River basin, Sanford sub-basin) contain potential source rocks for oil, but they are more likely to have yielded natural gas. The organic material in these formations was derived primarily from terrestrial Type III woody (coaly) material and secondarily from lacustrine Type I (algal) material. Both the thermal alteration index (TAI) and vitrinite reflectance data (%Ro) indicate levels of thermal maturity suitable for generation of hydrocarbons. The genetic potential of the source rocks in these Triassic basins is moderate to high and many source rock sections have at least some potential for hydrocarbon generation. Some data for the Cumnock Formation indicate a considerably higher source rock potential than the basin average, with S1 + S2 data in the mid-20 mg HC/g sample range, and some hydrocarbons have been generated. This implies that the genetic potential for all of these strata may have been higher prior to the igneous activity. However, the intergranular porosity and permeability of the Triassic strata are low, which makes fractured reservoirs more attractive as drilling targets. In some places, gravity and magnetic surveys that are used to locate buried intrusive rock may identify local thermal sources that have facilitated gas generation. Alternatively, awareness of the distribution of large intrusive igneous bodies at depth may direct exploration into other areas, where thermal maturation is less than the limits of hydrocarbon destruction. Areas prospective for natural gas also contain large surficial clay resources and any gas discovered could be used as fuel for local industries that produce clay products (principally brick), as well as fuel for other local industries.

North Carolina↗

Modeling functional flows in California rivers

Environmental flows are critical to the recovery and conservation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. However, estimating desired ranges of environmental flows across large, diverse landscapes is challenging. To advance protections of environmental flows for streams in California, USA, we developed a statewide modeling approach focused on functional components of the natural flow regime. Functional flow components in California streams—fall pulse flows, wet season peak flows and base flows, the spring flow recession, and dry season baseflows—support essential physical and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. These functional flow components can be represented by functional flow metrics (FFMs) and quantified by their magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate-of-change from daily streamflow records. After quantifying FFMs at reference-quality streamflow gages in California, we used machine-learning methods to estimate their natural range of values for all stream reaches in the state based on physical watershed characteristics and climatic factors. We found that the models performed well in predicting FFMs in streams across a diversity of landscape and climate contexts, according to several model performance criteria. Using the predicted FFM values, we established initial estimates of ecological flows that are expected to support critical functions and are broadly protective of ecosystem health. Modeling functional flows statewide offers a pathway for increasing the pace and scale of environmental flow protections in California and beyond.

California↗

Dams, floodplain land use, and riparian forest conservation in the semiarid Upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Land and water resource development can independently eliminate riparian plant communities, including Fremont cottonwood forest (CF), a major contributor to ecosystem structure and functioning in semiarid portions of the American Southwest. We tested whether floodplain development was linked to river regulation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) by relating the extent of five developed land-cover categories as well as CF and other natural vegetation to catchment reservoir capacity, changes in total annual and annual peak discharge, and overall level of mainstem hydrologic alteration (small, moderate, or large) in 26 fourth-order subbasins. We also asked whether CF appeared to be in jeopardy at a regional level. We classified 51% of the 57,000 ha of alluvial floodplain examined along >2600 km of mainstem rivers as CF and 36% as developed. The proportion developed was unrelated to the level of mainstem hydrologic alteration. The proportion classified as CF was also independent of the level of hydrologic alteration, a result we attribute to confounding effects from development, the presence of time lags, and contrasting effects from flow alteration in different subbasins. Most CF (68% by area) had a sparse canopy (???5% cover), and stands with >50% canopy cover occupied <1% of the floodplain in 15 subbasins. We suggest that CF extent in the UCRB will decline markedly in the future, when the old trees on floodplains now disconnected from the river die and large areas change from CF to non-CF categories. Attention at a basinwide scale to the multiple factors affecting cottonwood patch dynamics is needed to assure conservation of these riparian forests. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗

Modeling effects of crop production, energy development and conservation-grassland loss on avian habitat

Birds are essential components of most ecosystems and provide many services valued by society. However, many populations have undergone striking declines as their habitats have been lost or degraded by human activities. Terrestrial grasslands are vital habitat for birds in the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), but grassland conversion and fragmentation from agriculture and energy-production activities have destroyed or degraded millions of hectares. Conservation grasslands can provide alternate habitat. In the United States, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is the largest program maintaining conservation grasslands on agricultural lands, but conservation grasslands in the PPR have declined by over 1 million ha since the program’s zenith in 2007. We used an ecosystem-services model (InVEST) parameterized for the PPR to quantify grassland-bird habitat remaining in 2014 and to assess the degradation status of the remaining grassland-bird habitat as influenced by crop and energy (i.e., oil, natural gas, and wind) production. We compared our resultant habitat-quality ratings to grassland-bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to confirm that ratings were related to grassland-bird abundance. Of the grassland-bird habitat remaining in 2014, about 19% was degraded by crop production that occurred within 0.1 km of grassland habitats, whereas energy production degraded an additional 16%. We further quantified the changes in availability of grassland-bird habitat under various land-cover scenarios representing incremental losses (10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) of CRP grasslands from 2014 levels. Our model identified 1 million ha (9%) of remaining grassland-bird habitat in the PPR that would be lost or degraded if all CRP conservation grasslands were returned to crop production. Grassland regions world-wide face similar challenges in maintaining avian habitat in the face of increasing commodity and energy production to sate the food and energy needs of a growing world population. Identifying ways to model the impacts of the tradeoff between food and energy production and wildlife production is an important step in creating solutions.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

Biogeochemical transport in the Loxahatchee River estuary, Florida: The role of submarine groundwater discharge

The distributions of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Ba, U, and a suite of naturally occurring radionuclides in the U/Th decay series (222Rn, 223,224,226,228Ra) were studied during high- and low-discharge conditions in the Loxahatchee River estuary, Florida to examine the role of submarine groundwater discharge in estuarine transport. The fresh water endmember of this still relatively pristine estuary may reflect not only river-borne constituents, but also those advected during active groundwater/surface water (hyporheic) exchange. During both discharge conditions, Ba concentrations indicated slight non-conservative mixing. Such Ba excesses could be attributed either to submarine groundwater discharge or particle desorption processes. Estuarine dissolved organic carbon concentrations were highest at salinities closest to zero. Uranium distributions were lowest in the fresh water sites and mixed mostly conservatively with an increase in salinity. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations were generally lowest (< 5??mg L- 1) close to zero salinity and increased several-fold (??? 18??mg L- 1; low discharge) toward the seaward endmember, which may be attributed to dynamic resuspension of bottom sediments within Jupiter Inlet. Surface water-column 222Rn activities were most elevated (> 28??dpm L- 1) at the freshwater endmember of the estuary and appear to identify regions of the river most influenced by the discharge of fresh groundwater. Activities of four naturally occurring isotopes of Ra (223,224,226,228Ra) in this estuary and select adjacent shallow groundwater wells yield mean estuarine water-mass transit times of less than 1 day; these values are in close agreement to those calculated by tidal prism and tidal frequency. Submarine groundwater discharge rates to the Loxahatchee River estuary were calculated using a tidal prism approach, an excess 226Ra mass balance, and an electromagnetic seepage meter. Average SGD rates ranged from 1.0 to 3.8 ?? 105??m3 d- 1 (20-74??L m- 2 d- 1), depending on river-discharge stage. Such calculated SGD estimates, which must include both a recirculated as well as fresh water component, are in close agreement with results obtained from a first-order watershed mass balance. Average submarine groundwater discharge rates yield NH4+ and PO4- 3 flux estimates to the Loxahatchee River estuary that range from 62.7 to 1063.1 and 69.2 to 378.5????mol m- 2 d- 1, respectively, depending on river stage. SGD-derived nutrient flux rates are compared to yearly computed riverine total N and total P load estimates. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Chemistry↗

Use of occupancy models to evaluate expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships

Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee ( Contopus virens ) and Brown-headed Nuthatch ( Sitta pusilla ), occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as “optimal habitat” by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker ( Melanerpes erythrocephalus ) models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

Sediment source fingerprinting as an aid to large-scale landscape conservation and restoration: A review for the Mississippi River Basin

Reliable quantitative information on sediment sources to rivers is critical to mitigate contamination and target conservation and restoration actions. However, the determination of the relative importance of sediment sources is complicated at the scale of large river basins by immense variability in erosional processes and sediment sources over space and time, heterogeneity in sediment transport and deposition, and a paucity of sediment monitoring data. Sediment source fingerprinting is an increasingly adopted field-based technique that identifies the nature and relative source contribution of sediment transported in waterways. Notably, sediment source fingerprinting provides information that is independent of other field, modeling, or remotely sensed techniques. However, the diversity in sediment fingerprinting sampling, analytical, and interpretive methods has been recognized as a problem in terms of developing standardized procedures for its application at the scale of large river basins. Accordingly, this review focuses on established sediment source fingerprinting studies conducted within the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), summarizes unique information provided by sediment source fingerprinting that is distinct from traditional monitoring techniques, evaluates consistency and reliability of methodological approaches among MRB studies, and provides prospects for the use of the sediment source fingerprinting technique as an aid to large-scale landscape conservation and restoration under current management frameworks. Most established MRB studies got creditable fingerprinting results and considered near-channel sources as the dominant sediment sources in most cases, while the comparability of their results suffers from a lack of standardization in procedural steps. Findings from MRB studies demonstrate that sediment source fingerprinting is a highly valuable and reliable sediment source assessment approach to assist land and water resource management under current management frameworks, but efforts are still needed to make this technique ready to be used in a more predominant way in large-scale landscape conservation and restoration efforts. We summarized research needs and suggested the best fingerprinting practices for management purposes with the aim of ensuring that this technique is as robust and reliable as it moves forward.

Mississippi River Basin↗

Surface gamma-ray survey of the Barre West quadrangle, Washington and Orange Counties, Vermont

This study was designed to determine the levels of naturally occurring radioactivity in bedrock from surface measurements at outcrops during the course of 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and to determine which rock types were potential sources of radionuclides. Elevated levels of total alpha particle radiation (gross alpha) occur in a public water system in Montpelier, Vermont. Measured gross alpha levels in the Murray Hill water system (Vermont Dept. of Environmental Conservation, unpub. data, 2005) have exceeded the maximum contaminant level of 15 picocuries per liter (pCi/l) set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (EPA, 2000). The Murray Hill system began treatment for radium in 1999. Although this treatment was successful, annual monitoring for gross alpha, radium, and uranium continues as required (Jon Kim, written communication, 2005). The water system utilizes a drilled bedrock well located in the Silurian-Devonian Waits River Formation. Kim (2002) summarized radioactivity data for Vermont, and aside from a statewide assessment of radon in public water systems (Manning and Ladue, 1986) and a single flight line from the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) (Texas Instruments, 1976) (fig. 1), no data are available to identify the potential sources of naturally occurring radioactivity in the local bedrock. Airborne gamma-ray surveys are typically used for large areas (Duval, 2001, 2002), and ground-based surveys are more commonly used for local site assessments. For example, ground-based surveys have been used for fault mapping (Iwata and others, 2001), soil mapping (Roberts and others, 2003), environmental assessments (Stromswold and Arthur, 1996), and mineral exploration (Jubeli and others, 1998). Duval (1980) summarized the methods and applications of gamma- ray spectrometry. In this study, we present the results from a ground-based gamma-ray survey of bedrock outcrops in the 7.5-minute Barre West quadrangle, Vermont. Other related and ongoing studies in the area are addressing potential mineral sources of radionuclides (Satkoski and Walsh, 2004; Satkoski and others, 2005), radionuclides in ground water (Kim and others, 2005), and bedrock geology.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Responses of native freshwater mussels to remediation to remove polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated sediments in the upper Hudson River

The Hudson River, New York, was contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from two manufacturing plants over a period of approximately 30 years, and PCBs are still present in sediment and biota today. The river provides habitat for a variety of plants and animals, including native freshwater mussels. A remediation programme, consisting of dredging followed by the placement of backfilled sediment and/or a subaqueous cap, was initiated in 2009 to remove PCB-contaminated sediments, and managers were concerned about how remediation could affect the mussels. Quantitative surveys were conducted across nine reaches (pools) to estimate species composition, density, population size, population structure, and ecosystem services of mussel assemblages, pre- and post-remediation. Surveys were stratified into remediated areas (targeted for dredging) and non-remediated areas (not targeted for dredging). Pre-remediation, the river contained a low diversity, and high, but variable, density of mussels that were strongly dominated by Elliptio complanata . The presence of few fresh dead mussels indicates low natural mortality. Frequent recruitment by many species, varied length classes, and high biomass also support robust assemblages that perform important ecosystem services, such as biofiltration. Remedial activity removed most of the mussels and the associated services that they perform: their density was reduced by 83% and their filtration capacity was reduced by 93%, relative to non-remediated areas. Areas that were remediated were almost devoid of adult mussels, but the presence of small mussels indicates that natural recolonization is occurring. However, it is unknown whether these assemblages will persist. As mussels are generally long lived and slow growing, natural recovery is anticipated to be slow, in the order of decades.

New York↗

Environment, taxonomy, and socioeconomics predict non-imperilment in freshwater fishes

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa, yet conservation assessments remain incomplete for many species. Freshwater fishes provide essential ecosystem services such as food security, recreational opportunities, and cultural significance. Despite heavy alterations to freshwater ecosystems, the reasons for species’ sensitivity and resistance to imperilment are unclear. To address this need, we develop a machine learning framework to predict global imperilment status for 10,631 freshwater fish species using a comprehensive set of environmental, socioeconomic, and intrinsic species-level predictors. Using updated IUCN Red List data, we train and validate Random Forest classifiers to distinguish imperiled (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) from non-imperiled species. We examine the relative influence of 52 variables derived from 12 global sources describing extrinsic environmental and socioeconomic factors and intrinsic species-specific characteristics. Our models achieve higher accuracy for non-imperiled species (90.1%) compared to imperiled species (81.8%), reflecting the greater heterogeneity of threats and conditions driving imperilment. Across models, key predictors include habitat variables, taxonomic order, hydrological characteristics, and disturbance indicators, underscoring the interplay between ecology, geography, and human pressures. This integrative, reproducible approach demonstrates the utility of machine learning for guiding proactive conservation and provides a scalable framework for global biodiversity risk assessment.

Nature Communications↗

Speciation genomics in the tiger whiptail lizards ( Aspidoscelis tigris complex)

The transition from small genetic to genome-scale datasets for studying biodiversity has revealed that genetic exchange through introgressive hybridization is a widespread phenomenon in nature. Despite this, a lack of high-quality reference genomes for most non-model species limits our understanding of the impact of this process for many taxonomic groups. This restricts the range of insights that genomic tools can provide for conservation biologists, who often hope to employ genomic datasets to accurately identify historically isolated lineages to protect and to predict their evolutionary fate in the face of environmental change. Tiger whiptail lizards ( Aspidoscelis tigris complex) are an abundant and important ecological component of ecosystems across the southwestern United States. In this study, we assembled and annotated a chromosome-level reference genome for A. t. stejnegeri from coastal California. We then used this reference genome to reconstruct patterns of speciation and admixture within the larger species complex, finding evidence that gene flow is widespread both geographically and across the genome.

northern Mexico, southwestern United States↗

Matching decision support modeling frameworks to disease emergence stages and associated management objectives

Wildlife disease management decisions often require rapid responses to situations that are fraught with uncertainty. By recognizing that management is implemented to achieve specific objectives, resource managers and science partners can identify an analysis technique and develop a monitoring plan to evaluate management effectiveness. For emerging infectious diseases, objectives may take several distinct forms, dependent on the perceived stage of disease emergence (i.e., pre-epidemic, early outbreak, mid-epidemic, and endemic), the expected rate of spread, and the anticipated effect of the disease on host populations. Identifying modeling techniques and metrics that are linked to management objectives will require early and consistent communication between managers and science partners. We link modeling approaches that can be used to forecast and evaluate the performance of intervention strategies with a range of disease management objectives. Our aim is to help scientists recognize alternative modeling approaches which may better align with different forms of disease management objectives, and to help managers evaluate the relevance of proposed modeling approaches to their specified objectives for disease management. Recognizing that disease management objectives can take different forms, and thus require different modeling approaches, can help wildlife disease response teams (i.e., natural resource managers, scientists, and stakeholders working collaboratively) better prepare and respond to disease threats.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Interaction between introduced trout and larval salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum) in high-elevation lakes

The larval stage of the long-toed salamander ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ) is the top vertebrate predator in high-elevation fishless lakes in the North Cascades National Park Service Complex, Washington (U.S.A.). Although most of these high-elevation lakes were naturally fishless, trout have been stocked in many of them. We sought to determine the effects of physicochemical factors and introduced trout on abundance and behavior of A. macrodactylum larvae. Larval salamander densities were estimated by snorkeling. Snorkelers carefully searched through substrate materials within 2 m of the shoreline and recorded the number of larvae observed and if larvae were hidden in benthic substrates. Physicochemical factors were measured in each lake on the same day that snorkel surveys were conducted. In fishless lakes, larval salamander densities were positively related to total Kjeldahl-N concentration and negatively related to lake elevation. Crustacean zooplankton, especially cladocerans, were important food resources for larval A. macrodactylum . Crustacean zooplankton and cladoceran densities were positively related to total Kjeldahl-N, suggesting that increased food resources contributed to increased densities of larval A. macrodactylum . Differences in larval salamander densities between fish and fishless lakes were related to total Kjeldahl-N concentrations and the reproductive status of trout. Mean larval salamander densities for fishless lakes with total Kjeldahl-N < 0.045 mg/L were not significantly different from mean larval densities in lakes with reproducing trout or in lakes with nonreproducing trout. In fishless lakes with total Kjeldahl-N ≥ 0.045 mg/L, however, mean larval densities were significantly higher than in lakes with reproducing trout where fish reached high densities. In fishless lakes with total Kjeldahl-N ≥ 0.095 mg/L, mean larval densities were significantly higher than in lakes with nonreproducing trout where trout fry were stocked at low densities. Reduced larval salamander densities in lakes with trout likely resulted from trout predation. There were no significant differences in the percentage of larvae hidden in benthic substrates between fishless lakes and lakes with fish. Our results imply that assessment of the effects of fish on amphibians requires an understanding of natural abiotic and biotic factors and processes influencing amphibian distribution and abundance.

Washington↗

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

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