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Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels?

Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Connecticut↗

Ontogenetic Variation in Food Consumption of Rusty Crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) in a Central New York Stream

We examined feeding periodicity of three size groups of the rusty crayfish (Orconectes rusticus) at four-hour intervals over a 28-hour period during July in a headwater stream of the Susquehanna River drainage in central New York. Feeding activity was expressed as the ratio of stomach weight divided by the crayfish wet weight. The diel food consumption patterns of all three size groups of rusty crayfish (i.e., ≤ 10 mm, 11–20 mm, and > 20 mm carapace length) were significantly different. Peak feeding of the smallest crayfish occurred during crepuscular periods. Food consumption of the intermediate size crayfish was highest at 2000 h, and feeding of large crayfish was consistently high from 1200 h to 0400 h. Feeding intensity of both small and intermediate size crayfish was highest when feeding intensity of large crayfsh was lowest. Ontogenetic differences in feeding periodicity may be associated with predation pressure from large rusty crayfish on smaller individuals.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗

The influence of a severe reservoir drawdown on springtime zooplankton and larval fish assemblages in Red Willow Reservoir, Nebraska

Reservoirs can be dynamic systems, often prone to unpredictable and extreme water-level fluctuations, and can be environments where survival is difficult for zooplankton and larval fish. Although numerous studies have examined the effects of extreme reservoir drawdown on water quality, few have examined extreme drawdown on both abiotic and biotic characteristics. A fissure in the dam at Red Willow Reservoir in southwest Nebraska necessitated an extreme drawdown; the water level was lowered more than 6 m during a two-month period, reducing reservoir volume by 76%. During the subsequent low-water period (i.e., post-drawdown), spring sampling (April–June) showed dissolved oxygen concentration was lower, while turbidity and chlorophyll- a concentration were greater, relative to pre-drawdown conditions. Additionally, there was an overall increase in zooplankton density, although there were differences among taxa, and changes in mean size among taxa, relative to pre-drawdown conditions. Zooplankton assemblage composition had an average dissimilarity of 19.3% from pre-drawdown to post-drawdown. The ratio of zero to non-zero catches was greater post-drawdown for larval common carp and for all larval fishes combined, whereas we observed no difference for larval gizzard shad. Larval fish assemblage composition had an average dissimilarity of 39.7% from pre-drawdown to post-drawdown. Given the likelihood that other dams will need repair or replacement in the near future, it is imperative for effective reservoir management that we anticipate the likely abiotic and biotic responses of reservoir ecosystems as these management actions will continue to alter environmental conditions in reservoirs.

Nebraska↗

Analysis of 20th century rainfall and streamflow to characterize drought and water resources in Puerto Rico

During the period from 1990 to 1997, annual rainfall accumulation averaged 87% of normal at the 12 stations with the longest period of record in Puerto Rico, a Caribbean island with a 1999 population of 3.8 million. Streamflow in rivers supplying the La Plata and Loíza reservoirs, the principal water supply of the San Juan metropolitan area, was at or below the 10th flow percentile for 27% to 50% of the time between December 1993 and May 1996. Diminished reservoir levels in 1994 and 1995 affected more than 1 million people in the San Juan metropolitan area. Water rationing was implemented during this period and significant agricultural losses, valued at $165 million, were recorded in 1994. The public endured a year of mandatory water rationing in which sections of the city had their water-distribution networks shut off for 24 to 36 hours on alternate days. During the winter and spring of 1997–1998, water was rationed to more than 200,000 people in northwestern Puerto Rico because water level in the Guajataca reservoir was well below normal for two years because of rainfall deficits. The drought period of 1993–1996 was comparable in magnitude to a drought in 1966–1968, but water rationing was more severe during the 1993–1996 period, indicating that water management issues such as demand, storage capacity, water production and losses, and per capita consumption are increasingly important as population and development in Puerto Rico expand. [Key words: drought, streamflow, water resources, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, rainfall, water supply.]

Physical Geography↗

Movement and spawning of American shad transported above dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline throughout much of their native range as a result of overfishing, pollution, and habitat alteration in coastal rivers where they spawn. One approach to restoration in regulated rivers is to provide access to historical spawning habitat above dams through a trap-and-transport program. We examined the initial survival, movement patterns, spawning, and downstream passage of sonic-tagged adult American shad transported to reservoir and riverine habitats upstream of hydroelectric dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia, during 2007–2009. Average survival to release in 2007–2008 was 85%, but survival decreased with increasing water temperature. Some tagged fish released in reservoirs migrated upstream to rivers; however, most meandered back and forth within the reservoir. A higher percentage of fish migrated through a smaller (8,215-ha) than a larger (20,234-ha) reservoir, suggesting that the population-level effects of transport may depend on upper basin characteristics. Transported American shad spent little time in upper basin rivers but were there when temperatures were appropriate for spawning. No American shad eggs were collected during weekly plankton sampling in upper basin rivers. The estimated initial survival of sonic-tagged American shad after downstream passage through each dam was 71–100%; however, only 1% of the detected fish migrated downstream through all three dams and many were relocated just upstream of a dam late in the season. Although adult American shad were successfully transported to upstream habitats in the Roanoke River basin, under present conditions transported individuals may have reduced effective fecundity and postspawning survival compared with nontransported fish that spawn in the lower Roanoke River.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

Experimental additions of aluminum sulfate and ammonium nitrate to in situ mesocosms to reduce cyanobacterial biovolume and microcystin concentration

Recent studies suggest that nitrogen additions to increase the total nitrogen:total phosphorus (TN:TP) ratio may reduce cyanobacterial biovolume and microcystin concentration in reservoirs. In systems where TP is >100 μg/L, however, nitrogen additions to increase the TN:TP ratio could cause ammonia, nitrate, or nitrite toxicity to terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Reducing phosphorus via aluminum sulfate (alum) may be needed prior to nitrogen additions aimed at increasing the TN:TP ratio. We experimentally tested this sequential management approach in large in situ mesocosms (70.7 m 3 ) to examine effects on cyanobacteria and microcystin concentration. Because alum removes nutrients and most seston from the water column, alum treatment reduced both TN and TP, leaving post-treatment TN:TP ratios similar to pre-treatment ratios. Cyanobacterial biovolume was reduced after alum addition, but the percent composition (i.e., relative) cyanobacterial abundance remained unchanged. A single ammonium nitrate (nitrogen) addition increased the TN:TP ratio 7-fold. After the TN:TP ratio was >50 (by weight), cyanobacterial biovolume and abundance were reduced, and chrysophyte and cryptophyte biovolume and abundance increased compared to the alum treatment. Microcystin was not detectable until the TN:TP ratio was <50. Although both treatments reduced cyanobacteria, only the nitrogen treatment seemed to stimulate energy flow from primary producers to zooplankton, which suggests that combining alum and nitrogen treatments may be a viable in-lake management strategy to reduce cyanobacteria and possibly microcystin concentrations in high-phosphorus systems. Additional studies are needed to define best management practices before combined alum and nitrogen additions are implemented as a reservoir management strategy.

Oregon↗

Alternative sea lamprey barrier technologies: History as a control tool

Currently, application of lampricides and installation of low-head barriers are the only proven means of sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) control in the Great Lakes. While sea lamprey cannot climb or jump over low-head barriers, many desirable migratory species also cannot traverse barriers and are unintentionally blocked. Recently, there has been a push to reduce reliance on chemical controls as well as increase stream connectivity and flood conveyance. In response, the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) continues to seek alternative methods of control. Great Lakes basin resource managers often request consideration of alternatives to both lampricide use and low-head barriers. Seasonal operation and alternative barrier designs (e.g. velocity barriers and electrical barriers) that incorporate additional features such as selective fish passage or flood conveyance are among the most commonly requested options. To date, alternative barrier technologies have been intermittently successful in the sea lamprey control program directed by the GLFC, yet continue to be proposed as alternatives to conventional low-head barriers. This document provides a comprehensive review on the current state of knowledge regarding the effectiveness of current and alternative barrier technologies and their historical use in the sea lamprey control program. This synthesis provides resource managers and sea lamprey control agents a reference and some tools to facilitate decision making around barriers that balance the critical need for invasive species control and fishery restoration.

Great Lakes↗

Reorganization of vegetation, hydrology and soil carbon after permafrost degradation across heterogeneous boreal landscapes

The diversity of ecosystems across boreal landscapes, successional changes after disturbance and complicated permafrost histories, present enormous challenges for assessing how vegetation, water and soil carbon may respond to climate change in boreal regions. To address this complexity, we used a chronosequence approach to assess changes in vegetation composition, water storage and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks along successional gradients within four landscapes: (1) rocky uplands on ice-poor hillside colluvium, (2) silty uplands on extremely ice-rich loess, (3) gravelly–sandy lowlands on ice-poor eolian sand and (4) peaty–silty lowlands on thick ice-rich peat deposits over reworked lowland loess. In rocky uplands, after fire permafrost thawed rapidly due to low ice contents, soils became well drained and SOC stocks decreased slightly. In silty uplands, after fire permafrost persisted, soils remained saturated and SOC decreased slightly. In gravelly–sandy lowlands where permafrost persisted in drier forest soils, loss of deeper permafrost around lakes has allowed recent widespread drainage of lakes that has exposed limnic material with high SOC to aerobic decomposition. In peaty–silty lowlands, 2–4 m of thaw settlement led to fragmented drainage patterns in isolated thermokarst bogs and flooding of soils, and surface soils accumulated new bog peat. We were not able to detect SOC changes in deeper soils, however, due to high variability. Complicated soil stratigraphy revealed that permafrost has repeatedly aggraded and degraded in all landscapes during the Holocene, although in silty uplands only the upper permafrost was affected. Overall, permafrost thaw has led to the reorganization of vegetation, water storage and flow paths, and patterns of SOC accumulation. However, changes have occurred over different timescales among landscapes: over decades in rocky uplands and gravelly–sandy lowlands in response to fire and lake drainage, over decades to centuries in peaty–silty lowlands with a legacy of complicated Holocene changes, and over centuries in silty uplands where ice-rich soil and ecological recovery protect permafrost.

Alaska↗

Nonlinear effects of group size on the success of wolves hunting elk

Despite the popular view that social predators live in groups because group hunting facilitates prey capture, the apparent tendency for hunting success to peak at small group sizes suggests that the formation of large groups is unrelated to prey capture. Few empirical studies, however, have tested for nonlinear relationships between hunting success and group size, and none have demonstrated why success trails off after peaking. Here, we use a unique dataset of observations of individually known wolves ( Canis lupus ) hunting elk ( Cervus elaphus ) in Yellowstone National Park to show that the relationship between success and group size is indeed nonlinear and that individuals withholding effort (free riding) is why success does not increase across large group sizes. Beyond 4 wolves, hunting success leveled off, and individual performance (a measure of effort) decreased for reasons unrelated to interference from inept hunters, individual age, or size. But performance did drop faster among wolves with an incentive to hold back, i.e., nonbreeders with no dependent offspring, those performing dangerous predatory tasks, i.e., grabbing and restraining prey, and those in groups of proficient hunters. These results suggest that decreasing performance was free riding and that was why success leveled off in groups with >4 wolves that had superficially appeared to be cooperating. This is the first direct evidence that nonlinear trends in group hunting success reflect a switch from cooperation to free riding. It also highlights how hunting success per se is unlikely to promote formation and maintenance of large groups.

Behavioral Ecology↗

Space use, migratory connectivity, and population segregation among Willets breeding in the western Great Basin

Western Willets ( Catoptrophorus semipalmatus inornatus ) were banded (n = 146 breeding adults and chicks) and radio-marked (n = 68 adults) at three western Great Basin wetland complexes to determine inter- and intraseasonal space use and movement patterns (primarily in 1998 and 1999). Birds were then tracked to overwintering sites where migratory connectivity and local movements were documented. Willets arrived synchronously at breeding sites during mid-April and spent less than 12 weeks in the Great Basin. There were no movements to other sites in the Great Basin during the breeding or postbreeding season. However, most breeding birds moved locally on a daily basis from upland nest sites to wetland foraging sites. The mean distance breeding birds were detected from nests did not differ between sexes or between members of a pair, although these distances were greater among postbreeding than breeding birds. Home-range estimates did not differ significantly between paired males and females during breeding or postbreeding. However, female home ranges were larger following breeding than during breeding. Shortly after chicks fledged, adult Willets left the Great Basin for locations primarily at coastal and estuarine sites in the San Francisco Bay area. Limited data revealed little among-site movements once Willets arrived at the coast, and birds appeared to be site faithful in subsequent winters. Winter sites of western Great Basin Willets differed from those used by birds from other areas in the subspecies' range, suggesting another subspecies or distinct population segment may exist. This study illustrates the importance of understanding movements and space use throughout the annual cycle in conservation planning.

California, Oregon↗

Liquid chromatographic determination of chloramine-T and its primary degradation product, p-toluenesulfonamide, in water

N -sodium- N -chloro-ρ-toiuenesulfonamide (chloramine-T) effectively controls bacterial gill disease (BGD) in cultured fishes. BGD, a common disease of hatchery-reared salmonids, causes more fish losses than any other disease among these species. This study describes a liquid chromatographic (LC) method that is capable of direct, simultaneous analysis of chloramine-T and its primary degradation product, ρ-toluenesulfonamide (ρ-TSA), in water. The procedure involves reversed-phase (C 18 ) LC analysis with ion suppression, using 0.01 M phosphate buffer at pH 3. The mobile phase is phosphate buffer-acetonitrile (60 + 40) at 1 mL/min. Both chemicals can be detected with a UV spectrophotometer at 229 nm; the method is linear up to 40 mg chloramine-T or ρ-TSA/L. Mean recoveries were 96.4 ± 6.1% for water samples fortified with 0.03 mg chloramine-T/L and 95.3 ± 4.6% for water samples fortified with 0.005 mg ρ-TSA/L. Limits of detection without sample enrichment for chloramine-T and ρ-TSA are 0.01 mg/L and 0.001 mg/L, respectively.

Journal of AOAC International↗

Fuel bed characteristics of Sierra Nevada conifers

A study of fuels in Sierra Nevada conifer forests showed that fuel bed depth and fuel bed weight significantly varied by tree species and developmental stage of the overstory. Specific values for depth and weight of woody, litter, and duff fuels are reported. There was a significant positive relationship between fuel bed depth and weight. Estimates of woody fuel weight using the planar intercept method were significantly related to sampled values. These relationships can be used to estimate fuel weights in the field.

California↗

Estimating aboveground biomass for broadleaf woody plants and young conifers in Sierra Nevada, California forests

Quantification of biomass is fundamental to a wide range of research and natural resource management goals. An accurate estimation of plant biomass is essential to predict potential fire behavior, calculate carbon sequestration for global climate change research, assess critical wildlife habitat, and so forth. Reliable allometric equations from simple field measurements are necessary for efficient evaluation of plant biomass. However, allometric equations are not available for many common woody plant taxa in the Sierra Nevada. In this report, we present more than 200 regression equations for the Sierra Nevada western slope that relate crown diameter, plant height, crown volume, stem diameter, and both crown diameter and height to the dry weight of foliage, branches, and entire aboveground biomass. Destructive sampling methods resulted in regression equations that accurately predict biomass from one or two simple, nondestructive field measurements. The tables presented here will allow researchers and natural resource managers to easily choose the best equations to fit their biomass assessment needs.

California↗

Host diversity begets parasite diversity: Bird final hosts and trematodes in snail intermediate hosts

An unappreciated facet of biodiversity is that rich communities and high abundance may foster parasitism. For parasites that sequentially use different host species throughout complex life cycles, parasite diversity and abundance in ‘downstream’ hosts should logically increase with the diversity and abundance of ‘upstream’ hosts (which carry the preceding stages of parasites). Surprisingly, this logical assumption has little empirical support, especially regarding metazoan parasites. Few studies have attempted direct tests of this idea and most have lacked the appropriate scale of investigation. In two different studies, we used time-lapse videography to quantify birds at fine spatial scales, and then related bird communities to larval trematode communities in snail populations sampled at the same small spatial scales. Species richness, species heterogeneity and abundance of final host birds were positively correlated with species richness, species heterogeneity and abundance of trematodes in host snails. Such community-level interactions have rarely been demonstrated and have implications for community theory, epidemiological theory and ecosystem management.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models

Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control interventions using the combined projections, presuming model outputs are directly comparable. However, the way each model represents the epidemiological system will vary. We apply electoral vote-processing rules to combine model-generated rankings of interventions. Combining rankings of interventions, instead of combining model projections, avoids assuming that projections are comparable as all comparisons of projections are made within each model. We investigate four rules: First-past-the-post, Alternative Vote (AV), Coombs Method and Borda Count. We investigate rule sensitivity by including models that favour only one action or including those that rank interventions randomly. We investigate two case studies: the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa (37 compartmental models) and a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in UK (four individual-based models). The Coombs Method was least susceptible to adding models that favoured a single action, Borda Count and AV were most susceptible to adding models that ranked interventions randomly. Each rule chose the same intervention as when ranking interventions by mean projections, suggesting that combining rankings provides similar recommendations with fewer assumptions about model comparability.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗