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At least 1,405 records · Page 78Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year −1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Biology Letters↗
USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that are acutely experiencing effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a critical traditional subsistence resource for indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with four potential climate/disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic–pessimistic) which simulates Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the 21 st century. We considered two types of harvest strategies: (1) adaptive harvest scenarios wherein harvest is calculated as a percentage of the population and annual harvests are updated at set intervals as the population is reassessed, and (2) non-adaptive harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest remains constant. All climate/disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the 21 st century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that an adaptive annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, representing contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability (>70% probability of maintaining population abundance above maximum net productivity level) under all climate/disturbance scenarios, accepting a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This suggests that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the harvest adapts to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations suggest that a sustainable non-adaptive harvest is also possible, but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females (equivalent to contemporary harvest levels of 1.23) exceeded our criterion for sustainability and resulted in a >5% chance of quasi-extinction by the end of the 21 st century under three of the four climate/disturbance scenarios we evaluated. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive co-management strategies, and we suggest such modeling frameworks are useful for managing for harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2005

Comparing electronic probes for volumetric water content of low-density feathermoss

Purpose - Feathermoss is ubiquitous in the boreal forest and across various land-cover types of the arctic and subarctic. A variety of affordable commercial sensors for soil moisture content measurement have recently become available and are in use in such regions, often in conjunction with fire-susceptibility or ecological studies. Few come supplied with calibrations suitable or suggested for soils high in organics. Aims to test seven of these sensors for use in feathermoss, seeking calibrations between sensor output and volumetric water content. Design/methodology/approach - Measurements from seven sensors installed in live, dead and burned feathermoss samples, drying in a controlled manner, were compared to moisture content measurements. Empirical calibrations of sensor output to water content were determined. Findings - Almost all of the sensors tested were suitable for measuring the moss sample water content, and a unique calibration for each sensor for this material is presented. Differences in sensor design lead to changes in sensitivity as a function of volumetric water content, affecting the spatial averaging over the soil measurement volume. Research limitations/implications - The wide range of electromagnetic sensors available include frequency and time domain designs with variations in wave guide and sensor geometry, the location of sensor electronics and operating frequency. Practical implications - This study provides information for extending the use of electromagnetic sensors to feathermoss. Originality/value - A comparison of volumetric water content sensor mechanics and design is of general interest to researchers measuring soil water content. In particular, researchers working in wetlands, boreal forests and tundra regions will be able to apply these results. ?? Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Sensor Review↗
USGS2005

DEM, tide and velocity over sulzberger ice shelf, West Antarctica

Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets preserve more than 77% of the global fresh water and could raise global sea level by several meters if completely melted. Ocean tides near and under ice shelves shifts the grounding line position significantly and are one of current limitations to study glacier dynamics and mass balance. The Sulzberger ice shelf is an area of ice mass flux change in West Antarctica and has not yet been well studied. In this study, we use repeat-pass synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry data from the ERS-1 and ERS-2 tandem missions for generation of a high-resolution (60-m) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) including tidal deformation detection and ice stream velocity of the Sulzberger Ice Shelf. Other satellite data such as laser altimeter measurements with fine foot-prints (70-m) from NASA's ICESat are used for validation and analyses. The resulting DEM has an accuracy of-0.57??5.88 m and is demonstrated to be useful for grounding line detection and ice mass balance studies. The deformation observed by InSAR is found to be primarily due to ocean tides and atmospheric pressure. The 2-D ice stream velocities computed agree qualitatively with previous methods on part of the Ice Shelf from passive microwave remote-sensing data (i.e., LANDSAT). ?? 2005 IEEE.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences

Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2022

Using physiological conditions to assess current and future habitat use of a Subarctic frog

Species with especially close dependence on the environment to meet physiological requirements, such as ectotherms, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Subarctic and Arctic, but there is limited knowledge on ectotherm physiology in these landscapes. We investigated how environmental conditions and habitat characteristics influence the physiological conditions and habitat use of wood frogs ( Rana sylvatica ) in a Subarctic landscape near Churchill, Manitoba (Canada). We used plaster models to estimate water loss rates and surface body temperatures among different habitat types and at specific locations used by radio-tracked frogs. Water loss ( R 2 = 0.67) and surface temperature ( R 2 = 0.80) of plaster models was similar to that of live frogs. Model-based water loss rates were greater in tundra habitat than in boreal forest and ecotone habitat. Habitat use of wood frogs was strongly tied with available surface moisture and decreased water loss rates that were observed with plaster models. Environmental conditions, such as wind speed and ground temperature, explained 58% and 91% of the variation in water balance and temperature of plaster models. Maintaining physiological conditions may be challenging for semi-aquatic ectotherms in environments vulnerable to future climate change. The ability to predict physiological conditions based on environmental conditions, as demonstrated in our study, can help understand how wildlife will respond to climatic changes.

Manitoba↗
USGS2016

Detrital zircon geochronology of pre- and syncollisional strata, Acadian orogen, Maine Appalachians

The Central Maine Basin is the largest expanse of deep-marine, Upper Ordovician to Devonian metasedimentary rocks in the New England Appalachians, and is a key to the tectonics of the Acadian Orogeny. Detrital zircon ages are reported from two groups of strata: (1) the Quimby, Rangeley, Perry Mountain and Smalls Falls Formations, which were derived from inboard, northwesterly sources and are supposedly older; and (2) the Madrid, Carrabassett and Littleton Formations, which were derived from outboard, easterly sources and are supposedly younger. Deep-water deposition prevailed throughout, with the provenance shift inferred to mark the onset of foredeep deposition and orogeny. The detrital zircon age distribution of a composite of the inboard-derived units shows maxima at 988 and 429 Ma; a composite from the outboard-derived units shows maxima at 1324, 1141, 957, 628, and 437 Ma. The inboard-derived units have a greater proportion of zircons between 450 and 400 Ma. Three samples from the inboard-derived group have youngest age maxima that are significantly younger than the nominal depositional ages. The outboard-derived group does not share this problem. These results are consistent with the hypothesised provenance shift, but they signal potential problems with the established stratigraphy, structure, and (or) regional mapping. Shallow-marine deposits of the Silurian to Devonian Ripogenus Formation, from northwest of the Central Maine Basin, yielded detrital zircons featuring a single age maximum at 441 Ma. These zircons were likely derived from a nearby magmatic arc now concealed by younger strata. Detrital zircons from the Tarratine Formation, part of the Acadian foreland-basin succession in this strike belt, shows age maxima at 1615, 980 and 429 Ma. These results are consistent with three episodes of zircon recycling beginning with the deposition of inboard-derived strata of the Central Maine Basin, which were shed from post-Taconic highlands located to the northwest. Next, southeasterly parts of this succession were deformed in the Acadian orogeny, shedding detritus towards the northwest into what remained of the basin. Finally, by Pragian time, all strata in the Central Maine Basin had been deformed and detritus from this new source accumulated as the Tarratine Formation in a new incarnation of the foreland basin. Silurian-Devonian strata from the Central Maine Basin have similar detrital zircon age distributions to coeval rocks from the Arctic Alaska and Farewell terranes of Alaska and the Northwestern terrane of Svalbard. We suggest that these strata were derived from different segments of the 6500-km-long Appalachian-Caledonide orogen.

Maine, New Hampshire↗
USGS2013

Introduced northern pike predation on salmonids in southcentral Alaska

Northern pike ( Esox lucius ) are opportunistic predators that can switch to alternative prey species after preferred prey have declined. This trophic adaptability allows invasive pike to have negative effects on aquatic food webs. In Southcentral Alaska, invasive pike are a substantial concern because they have spread to important spawning and rearing habitat for salmonids and are hypothesised to be responsible for recent salmonid declines. We described the relative importance of salmonids and other prey species to pike diets in the Deshka River and Alexander Creek in Southcentral Alaska. Salmonids were once abundant in both rivers, but they are now rare in Alexander Creek. In the Deshka River, we found that juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) dominated pike diets and that small pike consumed more of these salmonids than large pike. In Alexander Creek, pike diets reflected the distribution of spawning salmonids, which decrease with distance upstream. Although salmonids dominated pike diets in the lowest reach of the stream, Arctic lamprey ( Lampetra camtschatica ) and slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) dominated pike diets in the middle and upper reaches. In both rivers, pike density did not influence diet and pike consumed smaller prey items than predicted by their gape-width. Our data suggest that (1) juvenile salmonids are a dominant prey item for pike, (2) small pike are the primary consumers of juvenile salmonids and (3) pike consume other native fish species when juvenile salmonids are less abundant. Implications of this trophic adaptability are that invasive pike can continue to increase while driving multiple species to low abundance.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula

The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e., pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (i) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (ii) low, moderate, and extreme scenarios of thermokarst pit formation (10%, 30%, and 50%) reported for Alaskan arctic tundra sites. We developed a 30 × 30 m resolution tundra geomorphology map (overall accuracy:75%; Kappa:0.69) for our ~1800 km² study area composed of ten classes; drained slope, high center polygon, flat-center polygon, low center polygon, coalescent low center polygon, polygon trough, meadow, ponds, rivers, and lakes, to determine their spatial distribution across the Barrow Peninsula. Land-atmosphere CO 2 and CH 4 flux data were collected for the summers of 2006–2010 at eighty-two sites near Barrow, across the mapped classes. The developed geomorphic map was used for the regional assessment of carbon flux. Results indicate (i) at present during peak growing season on the Barrow Peninsula, CO 2 uptake occurs at -902.3 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between −438.3 and −1366 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux at 28.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between 12.9 and 44.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ), (ii) one century of future landscape change associated with the thaw-lake cycle only slightly alter CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, while (iii) moderate increases in thermokarst pits would strengthen both CO 2 uptake (−166.9 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux (2.8 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ) with geomorphic change from low to high center polygons, cumulatively resulting in an estimated negative feedback to warming during peak growing season.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km 2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial‐temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008‐2017. The body condition of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals ( Erignathus barbatus ) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short‐term. In the long‐term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2021

Yearly temperature fluctuations and survey speed influence road counts of wintering raptors

Globally, evaluation of population trends is the most pressing research need for many species of conservation concern. Road counts for birds of prey are useful for monitoring long‐term population trends and examining year‐to‐year variations in abundance. We examined data from 2155 road surveys conducted from 2001 to 2018 by community scientists who recorded > 85 000 individuals of 14 species of raptors while participating in the Pennsylvania Winter Raptor Survey, in Pennsylvania, USA. We estimated abundance and population growth rates while accounting for observation error by using dynamic Bayesian state‐space models. Model estimates indicated that counts of wintering Bald Eagles Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Red‐shouldered Hawks Buteo lineatus and Black Vulture Coragyps atratus increased over the course of the study. Counts of Rough‐legged Buzzard Buteo lagopus , Red‐tailed Hawk Buteo jamaicensis , Northern Harrier Circus hudsonius , Turkey Vulture Cathartes aura and American Kestrel Falco sparverius varied more (CV > 5.0) over the duration of the study than other species did. Higher winter temperatures were associated with increases in counts of species whose local populations are partially migratory (American Kestrel and Red‐tailed Hawk), and with lower counts of a long‐distance arctic migrant – Rough‐legged Buzzard. Counts of these species were therefore correlated such that more American Kestrels and Red‐tailed Hawks were counted during years when Rough‐legged Buzzards were less frequently seen. Generally, the number of individuals counted declined as survey speed increased. A general rule for road counts therefore seems to be ‘slower is better’, consistent with past recommendations that observers travel at a speed < 40 km/h during road counts. Our study highlights the utility of road surveys and advances analytical approaches to monitor raptors.

Ibis↗
USGS2021

When a typical jumper skips: Itineraries and staging habitats used by Red Knots (Calidris canutus piersmai) migrating between northwest Australia and the New Siberian Islands

The ecological reasons for variation in avian migration, with some populations migrating across thousands of kilometres between breeding and non-breeding areas with one or few refuelling stops, in contrast to others that stop more often, remain to be pinned down. Red Knots Calidris canutus are a textbook example of a shorebird species that makes long migrations with only a few stops. Recognizing that such behaviours are not necessarily species-specific but determined by ecological context, we here provide a description of the migrations of a relatively recently described subspecies ( piersmai ). Based on data from tagging of Red Knots on the terminal non-breeding grounds in northwest Australia with 4.5- and 2.5-g solar-powered Platform Terminal Transmitters (PTTs) and 1.0-g geolocators, we obtained information on 19 route-records of 17 individuals, resulting in seven complete return migrations. We confirm published evidence that Red Knots of the piersmai subspecies migrate from NW Australia and breed on the New Siberian Islands in the Russian Arctic and that they stage along the coasts of southeastern Asia, especially in the northern Yellow Sea in China. Red Knots arrived on the tundra breeding grounds from 8 June onwards. Southward departures mainly occurred in the last week of July and the first week of August. We documented six non-stop flights of over c . 5000 km (with a maximum of 6500 km, lasting 6.6 days). Nevertheless, rather than staging at a single location for multiple weeks halfway during migration, piersmai -knots made several stops of up to a week. This was especially evident during northward migration, when birds often stopped along the way in southeast Asia and ‘hugged’ the coast of China, thus flying an additional 1000–1500 km compared with the shortest possible (great circle route) flights between NW Australia and the Yellow Sea. The birds staged longest in areas in northern China, along the shores of Bohai Bay and upper Liaodong Bay, where the bivalve Potamocorbula laevis , known as a particularly suitable food for Red Knots, was present. The use of multiple food-rich stopping sites during northward migration by piersmai is atypical among subspecies of Red Knots. Although piersmai apparently has the benefit of multiple suitable stopping areas along the flyway, it is a subspecies in decline and their mortality away from the NW Australian non-breeding grounds has been elevated.

New Siberian Islands↗
USGS2025

Adoption of non‐related goslings and intergenerational family cohesion among Greenland White‐fronted Geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris)

Greenland White-fronted Geese Anser albifrons flavirostris exhibit prolonged parent–offspring and sibling–sibling associations, suggesting fitness advantages to such behaviour, so we used reduced representation genome sequence data to determine the degree to which marked flock members observed associating in apparent parent–offspring and sibling–sibling relationships in the field were genetically related. Among 50 bled, marked and released geese, we genetically identified members of 11 different family groups, confirming all observed male parent–offspring relationships as genetically predicted, but only 10 out of 12 (83%) possible female parent–offspring relationships (i.e. two offspring were not genetically related to the adult female in their family groups observed in the field); these two ‘adopted’ offspring were responsible for four (15%) of the cases where observed ‘siblings’ were not genetically related to other family-member first-winter birds with which they associated. One multigenerational family consisted of three genetically confirmed grandmother–mother–sibling offspring relationships, not previously reported in arctic-nesting geese, as well as one of the two ‘adopted’ first-winter geese.

Wexford Slobs↗
USGS2007

A three-dimensional geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea region: Model construction and basement characterization

BARENTS50, a new 3-D geophysical model of the crust in the Barents Sea Region has been developed by the University of Oslo, NORSAR and the U.S. Geological Survey. The target region comprises northern Norway and Finland, parts of the Kola Peninsula and the East European lowlands. Novaya Zemlya, the Kara Sea and Franz-Josef Land terminate the region to the east, while the Norwegian-Greenland Sea marks the western boundary. In total, 680 1-D seismic velocity profiles were compiled, mostly by sampling 2-D seismic velocity transects, from seismic refraction profiles. Seismic reflection data in the western Barents Sea were further used for density modelling and subsequent density-to-velocity conversion. Velocities from these profiles were binned into two sedimentary and three crystalline crustal layers. The first step of the compilation comprised the layer-wise interpolation of the velocities and thicknesses. Within the different geological provinces of the study region, linear relationships between the thickness of the sedimentary rocks and the thickness of the remaining crystalline crust are observed. We therefore, used the separately compiled (area-wide) sediment thickness data to adjust the total crystalline crustal thickness according to the total sedimentary thickness where no constraints from 1-D velocity profiles existed. The BARENTS50 model is based on an equidistant hexagonal grid with a node spacing of 50 km. The P -wave velocity model was used for gravity modelling to obtain 3-D density structure. A better fit to the observed gravity was achieved using a grid search algorithm which focussed on the density contrast of the sediment-basement interface. An improvement compared to older geophysical models is the high resolution of 50 km. Velocity transects through the 3-D model illustrate geological features of the European Arctic. The possible petrology of the crystalline basement in western and eastern Barents Sea is discussed on the basis of the observed seismic velocity structure. The BARENTS50 model is available at http://www.norsar.no/seismology/barents3d/ .

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2012

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid-latitude dry regions

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid-latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow-poor to wet, cold and snow-rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow-poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow-richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water-limitation and a longer snow-free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.

Global Change Biology↗