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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Phenological mismatch in coastal western Alaska may increase summer season greenhouse gas uptake

High latitude ecosystems are prone to phenological mismatches due to climate change- driven advances in the growing season and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores. These changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical cycling and contribute to feedbacks on climate change by altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) through large regions of the Arctic. Yet the effects of phenological mismatches on gas fluxes are currently unexplored. We used a three-year field experiment that altered the start of the growing season and timing of grazing to investigate how phenological mismatch affects GHG exchange. We found early grazing increased mean GHG emission to the atmosphere despite lower CH 4 emissions due to grazing-induced changes in vegetation structure that increased uptake of CO 2 . In contrast, late grazing reduced GHG emissions because greater plant productivity led to an increase in CO 2 uptake that overcame the increase in CH 4 emission. Timing of grazing was an important control on both CO 2 and CH 4 emissions, and net GHG exchange was the result of opposing fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 . N 2 O played a negligible role in GHG flux. Advancing the growing season had a smaller effect on GHG emissions than changes to timing of grazing in this study. Our results suggest that a phenological mismatch that delays timing of grazing relative to the growing season, a change which is already developing along in western coastal Alaska, will reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere through increased CO 2 uptake despite greater CH 4 emissions.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2019

Cloud cover and delayed herbivory relative to timing of spring onset interact to dampen climate change impacts on net ecosystem exchange in a coastal Alaskan wetland

Rapid warming in northern ecosystems over the past four decades has resulted in earlier spring, increased precipitation, and altered timing of plant–animal interactions, such as herbivory. Advanced spring phenology can lead to longer growing seasons and increased carbon (C) uptake. Greater precipitation coincides with greater cloud cover possibly suppressing photosynthesis. Timing of herbivory relative to spring phenology influences plant biomass. None of these changes are mutually exclusive and their interactions could lead to unexpected consequences for Arctic ecosystem function. We examined the influence of advanced spring phenology, cloud cover, and timing of grazing on C exchange in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of western Alaska for three years. We combined advancement of the growing season using passive-warming open-top chambers (OTC) with controlled timing of goose grazing (early, typical, and late season) and removal of grazing. We also monitored natural variation in incident sunlight to examine the C exchange consequences of these interacting forcings. We monitored net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE) hourly using an autochamber system. Data were used to construct daily light curves for each experimental plot and sunlight data coupled with a clear-sky model was used to quantify daily and seasonal NEE over a range of incident sunlight conditions. Cloudy days resulted in the largest suppression of NEE, reducing C uptake by approximately 2 g C m −2 d −1 regardless of the timing of the season or timing of grazing. Delaying grazing enhanced C uptake by approximately 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Advancing spring phenology reduced C uptake by approximately 1.5 g C m −2 d −1 , but only when plots were directly warmed by the OTCs; spring advancement did not have a long-term influence on NEE. Consequently, the two strongest drivers of NEE, cloud cover and grazing, can have opposing effects and thus future growing season NEE will depend on the magnitude of change in timing of grazing and incident sunlight.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Multi-decadal patterns of vegetation succession after tundra fire on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) is one of the warmest parts of the Arctic tundra biome and tundra fires are common in its upland areas. Here we combine field measurements, Landsat observations, and quantitative cover maps for tundra plant functional types (PFTs) to characterize multi-decadal succession and landscape change after fire in lichen-dominated upland tundra of the YKD, where extensive wildfires occurred in 1971–1972, 1985, 2006–2007, and 2015. Unburned tundra was characterized by abundant lichens and low lichen cover was consistently associated with historical fire. While we observed some successional patterns that were consistent with earlier work in Alaskan tussock tundra, other patterns were not. In the landscape we studied, a large proportion of pre-fire moss cover and surface peat tended to survive fire, which favors survival of existing vascular plants and limits opportunities for seed recruitment. Although shrub cover was much higher in 1985 and 1971–1972 burns than in unburned tundra, tall shrubs (>0.5 m height) were rare and the PFT maps indicate high landscape-scale variability in the degree and persistence of shrub increase after fire. Fire has induced persistent changes in species composition and structure of upland tundra on the YKD, but the lichen-dominated fuels and thick surface peat appear to have limited the potential for severe fire and accompanying edaphic changes. Soil thaw depths were about 10 cm deeper in 2006–2007 burns than in unburned tundra, but were similar to unburned tundra in 1985 and 1971–1972 burns. Historically, repeat fire has been rare on the YKD, and the functional diversity of vegetation has recovered within several decades post-fire. Our findings provide a basis for predicting and monitoring post-fire tundra succession on the YKD and elsewhere.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Satellite and airborne remote sensing of gross primary productivity in boreal Alaskan lakes

In terrestrial and marine ecosystems, remote sensing has been used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) for decades, but few applications exist for shallow freshwater ecosystems.Here we show field-based GPP correlates with satellite and airborne lake color across a range of optically and limnologically diverse lakes in interior Alaska. A strong relationship between in situ GPP derived from stable oxygen isotopes (δ 18 O) and space-based lake color from satellites (e.g. Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and CubeSats) and airborne imagery (AVIRIS-NG) demonstrates the potential power of this technique for improving spatial and temporal monitoring of lake GPP when coupled with additional field validation measurements across different systems. In shallow waters clear enough for sunlight to reach lake bottoms, both submerged vegetation (macrophytes and algae) and phytoplankton likely contribute to GPP. The stable isotopes and remotely sensed shallow lake color used here integrate both components. These results demonstrate the utility of lake color as a feasible means for mapping lake GPP from remote sensing. This novel methodology estimates GPP from remote sensing in shallow lakes by combining field measurements of oxygen isotopes with airborne, satellite and CubeSat imagery. This use of lake color for providing insight into ecological processes of shallow lakes is recommended, especially for remote arctic and boreal landscapes.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Patterns and isotopic composition of greenhouse gases under ice in lakes of interior Alaska

Arctic and boreal lake greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are an important component of regional carbon (C) budgets. Yet the magnitude and seasonal patterns of lake GHG emissions are poorly constrained, because sampling is limited in these remote landscapes, particularly during winter and shoulder seasons. To better define patterns of under ice GHG content (and emissions potential at spring thaw), we surveyed carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) concentrations and stable isotopic composition during winter of 2017 in 13 lakes in the arid Yukon Flats Basin of interior Alaska, USA. Partial pressures of CO 2 and CH 4 ranged over three orders of magnitude, were positively correlated, and CO 2 exceeded CH 4 at all but one site. Shallow, organic matter-rich lakes located at lower elevations tended to have the highest concentrations of both gases, though CH 4 content was more heterogeneous and only abundant in oxygen-depleted lakes, while CO 2 was negatively correlated to oxygen content. Isotopic values of CO 2 spanned a narrow range (−10‰ to −23‰) compared to CH 4 , which ranged over 50‰ (−19‰ to −71‰), indicating CH 4 source pathways and sink strength varied widely between lakes. Miller-Tans and Keeling plots qualitatively suggested two groups of lakes were present; one with isotopically enriched source CH 4 possibly more dominated by acetoclastic methanogenesis, and one with depleted signatures suggesting a dominance of the hydrogenotrophic production. Overall, regional lake differences in winter under ice GHG content appear to track landscape position, oxygen, and organic matter content and composition, causing patterns to vary widely even within a relatively small geographic area of interior Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr −1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS1997

Ephemeral lekking behavior in the buff-breasted sandpiper, Tryngites subruficollis

We studied male reproductive behavior of the buff-breasted sandpiper Tryngites subruficoills for three yean on a 16-km 2 study site in northern Alaska to document variation in male lekking behavior and to explore the causes of that variation. During the breeding season, about 75% of males on the study area displayed on leks, with the remainder displaying solitarily. Leks averaged between 2.3 and 3.0 males each (maximum size = 20). Most leks (69%) were present in only one year and about one-tenth were active all three years. Half of the leks were active for only one survey (maximum of 3-4 days) in a given year. Individual male behavior varied substantially, from remaining at a tingle lek for most of the breeding season or attending multiple leks during the season, to displaying solitarily or displaying both on leks and solitarily. Some males (30% or fewer) displayed near nests during the later part of the breeding season, perhaps attempting to copulate with females during egg-laying. The pro-portion of males that displayed on leks remained consistently high throughout the breeding season despite changes in the operational sex ratio and in the intensity of male-male competition. However, the absolute number of males (lekking and solitary) in the study area was positively correlated with the number of fertile females during both breeding seasons. We suggest that buff-breasted sandpipers may be unusual among lek-breeding birds in that males have the option of leaving areas when the number of fertile females becomes depressed and flying to new areas where breeding opportunities are still available. Breeding opportunities may be especially variable in the high arctic because of uneven snow accumulation and differential melt-off that can delay breeding by two or more weeks. This interpretation suggests that the mating system of the buff-breasted sandpiper must be viewed at a much larger scale than what has typically been used in mating system studies.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Growth, movement, and survival of precocial shorebird chicks are constrained by their environment.

Young animals are often less mobile than adults, while also having high energetic demands. They may therefore be more vulnerable to local-scale changes in environmental conditions. In particular, when 1 sex must grow more rapidly than the other to achieve a larger adult size, that sex may experience especially dramatic reductions in growth and survival in the face of suboptimal environmental conditions. In order to investigate the flexibility of individuals in response to local-scale environmental variation during development, we studied the sex-specific growth, movement, and survival of Hudsonian Godwit ( Limosa haemastica ) chicks—a sexually dimorphic, precocial shorebird that breeds in the sub-Arctic and exhibits a male-skewed adult sex ratio. We found that female chicks—which must grow to a larger adult size—reached their maximum growth rates at a later age, but had similar growth rates to males before that and survived equally well to 21 days. We also found that, irrespective of sex, chicks had reduced movement rates when they were young and/or temperatures were cold, and only weakly increased their movement rates when invertebrate abundances remained low across an entire week. Early in life, godwit chicks may therefore be constrained from increasing their foraging efforts by local environmental conditions, forcing females to sustain higher growth rates late in the season past the local resource peak. Such sex-specific vulnerabilities could lead to lower early-life survival and, in turn, skewed adult sex ratios, which have important implications for population dynamics and persistence.

Behavioral Ecology↗
USGS2014

Capturing migration phenology of terrestrial wildlife using camera traps

Remote photography, using camera traps, can be an effective and noninvasive tool for capturing the migration phenology of terrestrial wildlife. We deployed 14 digital cameras along a 104-kilometer longitudinal transect to record the spring migrations of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) and ptarmigan ( Lagopus spp.) in the Alaskan Arctic. The cameras recorded images at 15-minute intervals, producing approximately 40,000 images, including 6685 caribou observations and 5329 ptarmigan observations. The northward caribou migration was evident because the median caribou observation (i.e., herd median) occurred later with increasing latitude; average caribou migration speed also increased with latitude (r 2 = .91). Except at the northernmost latitude, a northward ptarmigan migration was similarly evident (r 2 = .93). Future applications of this method could be used to examine the conditions proximate to animal movement, such as habitat or snow cover, that may influence migration phenology.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears ( n = 31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears ( n = 36) that were recaptured 8–200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species.

Article↗
USGS2023

Serum virome of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during a period of rapid climate change

Climate change affects the behavior, physiology and life history of many Arctic wildlife species. It can also influence the distribution and ecology of infectious agents. The southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) has experienced dramatic behavioral changes due to retreating sea ice and other climate-related factors, but the effects of these changes on physiology and infection remain poorly understood. Using serum from polar bears sampled between 2004 and 2015 and metagenomic DNA sequencing, we identified 48 viruses, all of the family Anelloviridae . Anelloviruses are small, ubiquitous infectious agents with circular single-stranded DNA genomes that are not known to cause disease but, in humans, covary in diversity and load with immunological compromise. We therefore examined the usefulness of anelloviruses as biomarkers of polar bear physiological stress related to climate and habitat use. Polar bear anelloviruses sorted into two distinct clades on a phylogenetic tree, both of which also contained anelloviruses of giant pandas ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ), another ursid. Neither anellovirus diversity nor load were associated with any demographic variables, behavioral factors or direct physiological measures. However, pairwise genetic distances between anelloviruses were positively correlated with pairwise differences in sampling date, suggesting that the polar bear “anellome”is evolving over time. These findings suggest that anelloviruses are not a sensitive indicator of polar physiological stress, but they do provide a baseline for evaluating future changes to polar bear viromes.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Reference intervals for blood-based biochemical analytes of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

Accurate reference intervals (RI) for commonly measured blood-based analytes are essential for health monitoring programs. Baseline values for a panel of analytes can be used to monitor physiologic and pathophysiologic processes such as organ function, electrolyte balance, and protein catabolism. Our reference population includes 651 serum samples from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation sampled in Alaska, USA, between 1983 - 2016. To establish RI for 13 biochemical analytes, we defined specific criteria for characterizing the reference population and relevant subgroups. To account for differences in seasonal life history characteristics, we determined separate RI for the spring and fall seasons, when prey availability and energetic requirements of bears differ. We established RI for five subgroups in spring based on sex, age class, and denning status, and three subgroups in fall based on sex and age class in females. Alkaline phosphatase activities were twice as high in subadult as in adult polar bears in spring (zmales = 4.08, Pmales < 0.001, zfemales = 3.90, Pfemales < 0.001), and did not differ between seasons. Denning females had significantly higher glucose concentrations than non-denning females (z = 4.94, P < 0.001), possibly reflecting differences in energy expenditure during lactation. Ten of the 13 analytes differed significantly between seasons in either males or females; however, the physiologic importance of these differences may be minimal. Establishing these RI allows for temporal monitoring of polar bear health in the southern Beaufort Sea and may prove useful for assessing and monitoring additional polar bear subpopulations in a changing Arctic environment.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

A Green's function approach for assessing the thermal disturbance caused by drilling deep boreholes in rock or ice

A knowledge of subsurface temperatures in sedimentary basins, fault zones, volcanic environments and polar ice sheets is of interest for a wide variety of geophysical applications. However, the process of drilling deep boreholes in these environments to provide access for temperature and other measurements invariably disturbs the temperature field around a newly created borehole. Although this disturbance dissipates over time, most temperature measurements are made while the temperature field is still disturbed. Thus, the measurements must be &lsquo;corrected&rsquo; for the drilling-disturbance effect if the undisturbed temperature field is to be determined. This paper provides compact analytical solutions for the thermal drilling disturbance based on 1-D (radial) and 2-D (radial and depth) Green's functions (GFs) in cylindrical coordinates. Solutions are developed for three types of boundary conditions (BCs) at the borehole wall: (1) prescribed temperature, (2) prescribed heat flux and (3) a prescribed convective condition. The BC at the borehole wall is allowed to vary both with depth and time. Inclusion of the depth dimension in the 2-D solution allows vertical heat-transfer effects to be quantified in situations where they are potentially important, that is, near the earth's surface, at the bottom of a well and when considering finite-drilling rates. The 2-D solution also includes a radial- and time-dependent BC at the earth's surface to assess the impact of drilling-related infrastructure (drilling pads, mud pits, permanent shelters) on the subsurface temperature field. Latent-heat effects due to the melting and subsequent refreezing of interstitial ice while drilling a borehole through ice-rich permafrost can be included in the GF solution as a moving-plane heat source (or sink) located at the solid&ndash;liquid interface. Synthetic examples are provided illustrating the 1-D and 2-D GF solutions. The flexibility of the approach allows the investigation of thermal drilling effects in rock or ice for a wide variety of drilling technologies. Numerical values for the required radial GFs G R are available through the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service at doi:10.5065/D64F1NS6.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2020

The freshwater mysid Mysis diluviana (Audzijonyte and Väinölä, 2005) (Mysida: Mysidae) consumes detritus in the presence of Daphnia (Cladocera: Daphniidae)

Freshwater mysids of the Mysis relicta group are omnivorous macroinvertebrates that form an important link between fishes and lower trophic levels in many north temperate to Arctic lakes, where they exhibit diel vertical migration (DVM) to exploit subsurface food-rich layers at night. Benthic food resources have been assumed to be less important for mysid diets than pelagic zooplankton. Studies have nevertheless indicated that mysids consume benthic sedimented detritus, calling this assumption into question. We conducted a food-choice experiment to evaluate the feeding preferences of Mysis diluviana (Audzijonyte & Vainola, 2005) by presenting field-caught specimens in individual foraging arenas with multiple choices of food. Experimental food treatments included a preferred pelagic prey (Daphnia), a presumed less desirable benthic resource (detritus), and a combination of both. We hypothesized that M. diluviana 1) prefers Daphnia over detritus and consumes only Daphnia in combination treatments, and 2) would not consume detritus except when detritus was the only food source available. Contrary to our hypothesis, M. diluviana readily consumed detritus in the presence of Daphnia. M. diluviana unexpectedly consumed more individuals of Daphnia in the presence rather than in the absence of detritus. Our results demonstrate that mysids take advantage of benthic food resources even in the presence of a presumably preferred zooplankton prey, calling to question the long-held assumption that benthic resources are unimportant when considering the trophic role of freshwater mysids of the M. relicta group.

Journal of Crustacean Biology↗
USGS2020

Panmixia in a sea ice-associated marine mammal: evaluating genetic structure of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) at multiple spatial scales

The kin structure of a species at relatively fine spatial scales impacts broad-scale patterns in genetic structure at the population level. However, kin structure rarely has been elucidated for migratory marine mammals. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) exhibits migratory behavior linked to seasonal patterns in sea ice dynamics. Consequently, information on the spatial genetic structure of the subspecies, including kin structure, could aid wildlife managers in designing future studies to evaluate the impacts of sea ice loss on the subspecies. We sampled 8,303 individual walruses over a 5-year period and used 114 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to examine both broad-scale patterns in genetic structure and fine-scale patterns in relatedness. We did not detect any evidence of genetic structure at broad spatial scales, with low F ST values (≤ 0.001) across all pairs of putative aggregations. To evaluate kin structure at fine spatial scales, we defined a walrus group as a cluster of resting individuals that were less than one walrus body length apart. We found weak evidence of kin structure at fine spatial scales, with 3.72% of groups exhibiting mean relatedness values greater than expected by chance, and a significantly higher overall observed mean value of relatedness within groups than expected by chance. Thus, the high spatiotemporal variation in the distribution of resources in the Pacific Arctic environment likely has favored a gregarious social system in Pacific walruses, with unrelated animals forming temporary associations.

Bering Sea↗
USGS2024

The post-emergence period for denning polar bears: Phenology and influence on cub survival

Among polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), only parturient females den for extended periods, emerging from maternal dens in spring after having substantially depleted their energy reserves during a fast that can exceed 8 months. Although den emergence coincides with a period of increasing prey availability, polar bears typically do not depart immediately to hunt, but instead remain at the den for up to a month. This delay suggests that there are likely adaptive advantages to remaining at the den between emergence and departure, but the influence of the timing and duration of this post-emergence period on cub survival has not been evaluated previously. We used temperature and location data from 70 denning bears collared within the Southern Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea subpopulations to estimate the phenology of the post-emergence period. We evaluated the influence of various spatial and temporal features on duration of the post-emergence period and evaluated the potential influence of post-emergence duration on litter survival early in the spring following denning. For dens that likely contained viable cubs at emergence ( n = 56), mean den emergence occurred on 16 March (SE = 1.4 days) and mean departure on 24 March (SE = 1.6 days), with dates typically occurring later in the Chukchi Sea relative to Southern Beaufort Sea and on land relative to sea ice. Mean duration of the post-emergence period was 7.9 days (SE = 1.4) for bears that were observed with cubs later in the spring, which was over 4 times longer than duration of those observed without cubs (1.9 days). Litter survival in the spring following denning ( n = 31 dens) increased from 0.5 to 0.9 when duration of the post-emergence period increased by ~4 days and other variables were held at mean values. Our limited sample size and inability to verify cub presence at emergence suggests that future research is merited to improve our understanding of this relationship. Nonetheless, our results highlight the importance of the post-emergence period in contributing to reproductive success and can assist managers in developing conservation and mitigation strategies in denning areas, which will be increasingly important as human activities expand in the Arctic.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2018

Den phenology and reproductive success of polar bears in a changing climate

Synchrony between reproduction and food availability is important in mammals due to the high energetic costs of gestation and lactation. Female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) must accumulate sufficient energy reserves during spring through autumn to produce and nurse cubs during the winter months in snow dens. Adequate time in a den is important to optimize cub development for withstanding harsh Arctic spring conditions and to synchronize emergence with peak prey availability, which occurs in May and June. During 1985–2013, den phenology was investigated using temperature data collected on satellite collars deployed on adult female polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS). We examined relationships between den phenology, reproductive success (cub production and post-emergence survival), and environmental factors (weather and sea-ice conditions). Females observed with cubs emerged later and remained in dens on average 15.0 ± 7.6 ( SE ) days longer than females seen without cubs. Females occupying land-based dens, where estimated snowfall was greater, had higher reproductive success. Recently, female polar bears have increased land-based denning in the SB. Females in CS emerged later from dens than SB females, consistent with better female body condition and higher cub survival in the CS. During years with a greater area of autumn sea ice, reproductive success was higher at land-based versus sea-ice dens, suggesting continued decline in sea ice could negatively affect recruitment. However, further research is needed to better understand mechanistic relationships. Because females emerging later from dens had higher reproductive success, den duration could be a useful metric in population monitoring.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗