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USGS2010

Use of Continuous Monitors and Autosamplers to Predict Unmeasured Water-Quality Constituents in Tributaries of the Tualatin River, Oregon

Management of water quality in streams of the United States is becoming increasingly complex as regulators seek to control aquatic pollution and ecological problems through Total Maximum Daily Load programs that target reductions in the concentrations of certain constituents. Sediment, nutrients, and bacteria, for example, are constituents that regulators target for reduction nationally and in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon. These constituents require laboratory analysis of discrete samples for definitive determinations of concentrations in streams. Recent technological advances in the nearly continuous, in situ monitoring of related water-quality parameters has fostered the use of these parameters as surrogates for the labor intensive, laboratory-analyzed constituents. Although these correlative techniques have been successful in large rivers, it was unclear whether they could be applied successfully in tributaries of the Tualatin River, primarily because these streams tend to be small, have rapid hydrologic response to rainfall and high streamflow variability, and may contain unique sources of sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. This report evaluates the feasibility of developing correlative regression models for predicting dependent variables (concentrations of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and Escherichia coli bacteria) in two Tualatin River basin streams: one draining highly urbanized land (Fanno Creek near Durham, Oregon) and one draining rural agricultural land (Dairy Creek at Highway 8 near Hillsboro, Oregon), during 2002-04. An important difference between these two streams is their response to storm runoff; Fanno Creek has a relatively rapid response due to extensive upstream impervious areas and Dairy Creek has a relatively slow response because of the large amount of undeveloped upstream land. Four other stream sites also were evaluated, but in less detail. Potential explanatory variables included continuously monitored streamflow (discharge), stream stage, specific conductance, turbidity, and time (to account for seasonal processes). Preliminary multiple-regression models were identified using stepwise regression and Mallow's Cp, which maximizes regression correlation coefficients and accounts for the loss of additional degrees of freedom when extra explanatory variables are used. Several data scenarios were created and evaluated for each site to assess the representativeness of existing monitoring data and autosampler-derived data, and to assess the utility of the available data to develop robust predictive models. The goodness-of-fit of candidate predictive models was assessed with diagnostic statistics from validation exercises that compared predictions against a subset of the available data. The regression modeling met with mixed success. Functional model forms that have a high likelihood of success were identified for most (but not all) dependent variables at each site, but there were limitations in the available datasets, notably the lack of samples from high-flows. These limitations increase the uncertainty in the predictions of the models and suggest that the models are not yet ready for use in assessing these streams, particularly under high-flow conditions, without additional data collection and recalibration of model coefficients. Nonetheless, the results reveal opportunities to use existing resources more efficiently. Baseline conditions are well represented in the available data, and, for the most part, the models reproduced these conditions well. Future sampling might therefore focus on high flow conditions, without much loss of ability to characterize the baseline. Seasonal cycles, as represented by trigonometric functions of time, were not significant in the evaluated models, perhaps because the baseline conditions are well characterized in the datasets or because the other explanatory variables indirectly incorporate seasonal aspects. Multicollinearity among independent variabl

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Assessment of Areal Recharge to the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

A numerical flow model of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie aquifer currently (2007) being developed requires the input of values for areally-distributed recharge, a parameter that is often the most uncertain component of water budgets and ground-water flow models because it is virtually impossible to measure over large areas. Data from six active weather stations in and near the study area were used in four recharge-calculation techniques or approaches; the Langbein method, in which recharge is estimated on the basis of empirical data from other basins; a method developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in which crop consumptive use and effective precipitation are first calculated and then subtracted from actual precipitation to yield an estimate of recharge; an approach developed as part of the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Model (ESPAM) Enhancement Project in which recharge is calculated on the basis of precipitation-recharge relations from other basins; and an approach in which reference evapotranspiration is calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, crop consumptive use is determined (using a single or dual coefficient approach), and recharge is calculated. Annual recharge calculated by the Langbein method for the six weather stations was 4 percent of annual mean precipitation, yielding the lowest values of the methods discussed in this report, however, the Langbein method can be only applied to annual time periods. Mean monthly recharge calculated by the USDA method ranged from 53 to 73 percent of mean monthly precipitation. Mean annual recharge ranged from 64 to 69 percent of mean annual precipitation. Separate mean monthly recharge calculations were made with the ESPAM method using initial input parameters to represent thin-soil, thick-soil, and lava-rock conditions. The lava-rock parameters yielded the highest recharge values and the thick-soil parameters the lowest. For thin-soil parameters, calculated monthly recharge ranged from 10 to 29 percent of mean monthly precipitation and annual recharge ranged from 16 to 23 percent of mean annual precipitation. For thick-soil parameters, calculated monthly recharge ranged from 1 to 5 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge ranged from 2 to 4 percent of mean annual precipitation. For lava-rock parameters, calculated mean monthly recharge ranged from 37 to 57 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge ranged from 45 to 52 percent of mean annual precipitation. Single-coefficient (crop coefficient) FAO Penman-Monteith mean monthly recharge values were calculated for Spokane Weather Service Office (WSO) Airport, the only station for which the necessary meteorological data were available. Grass-referenced values of mean monthly recharge ranged from 0 to 81 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge was 21 percent of mean annual precipitation; alfalfa-referenced values of mean monthly recharge ranged from 0 to 85 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge was 24 percent of mean annual precipitation. Single-coefficient FAO Penman-Monteith calculations yielded a mean monthly recharge of zero during the eight warmest and driest months of the year (March-October). In order to refine the mean monthly recharge estimates, dual-coefficient (basal crop and soil evaporation coefficients) FAO Penman-Monteith dual-crop evapotranspiration and deep-percolation calculations were applied to daily values from the Spokane WSO Airport for January 1990 through December 2005. The resultant monthly totals display a temporal variability that is absent from the mean monthly values and demonstrate that the daily amount and timing of precipitation dramatically affect calculated recharge. The dual-coefficient FAO Penman-Monteith calculations were made for the remaining five stations using wind-speed values for Spokane WSO Airport and other assumptions regarding

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Substrate Geochemistry and Soil Development in Boreal Forest and Tundra Ecosystems in the Yukon-Tanana Upland and Seward Peninsula, Alaska

We report on soil development as a function of bedrock type and the presence of loess in two high latitude ecosystems (boreal forest and tundra) and from two regions in Alaska?the Yukon-Tanana Upland (YTU, east-central Alaska) and the Seward Peninsula (SP, far-west coastal Alaska). This approach to the study of 'cold soils' is fundamental to the quantification of regional geochemical landscape patterns. Of the five state factors in this study, bedrock and biota (ecosystem; vegetation zone) vary whereas climate (within each area) and topography are controlled. The influence of time is assumed to be controlled, as these soils are thousands of years old (late Quaternary to Holocene). The primary minerals in soils from YTU, developed over loess and crystalline bedrock (metamorphic and intrusive), are quartz, plagioclase, and 2:1 clays; whereas in the SP, where loess and metasedimentary bedrock (schist and quartzite) predominate, they are quartz and muscovite. The A horizon of both regions is rich in peat. Examination of the ratio of mobile (K2O, CaO, and Fe2O3) to immobile (TiO2) major oxides, within each region, shows that very little difference exists in the chemical weathering of soils developed between the two ecosystems examined. Differences were observed between tundra soils developed in the two regions. These differences are most probably due to the dissimilarity in the geochemical importance of both loess and bedrock. A minimal loss of cadmium with soil depth is seen for soils developed over YTU crystalline bedrock in the boreal forest environments. This trend is related to the mobility of cadmium in these soils as well as to its biogenic cycling. Major differences were observed in the proportion of cadmium and zinc among the A, B, and C horizon material sequestered in various soil fractions as measured by sequential soil extractions. These trends followed such variables as the decrease with depth in organic matter, the change in clay minerals, and the change in the proportion of oxides/hydroxides. An analysis of the bulk soil mineralogy and the relation between CaO and MgO and Al2O3 and Fe2O3 indicates that the silty textured soils of the YTU are predominantly eolian (that is, of late Tertiary or Quaternary age) but not broad-regional in origin. Their composition instead is probably the result of locally derived dusts as well as input from long-term, in-place bedrock weathering.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

Groundwater residence times in glacial aquifers—A new general simulation-model approach compared to conventional inset models

Groundwater is important as a drinking-water source and for maintaining base flow in rivers, streams, and lakes. Groundwater quality can be predicted, in part, by its residence time in the subsurface, but the residence-time distribution cannot be measured directly and must be inferred from models. This report compares residence-time distributions from four areas where groundwater flow and travel time were simulated with conventional simulation-inset models (IMs) and with a new automated model-construction method called general simulation models (GSMs). The comparison provides an opportunity to explore controls on travel time and improve the methods used in the creation of GSMs. These models can be useful for three main-use cases: (1) rapid testing of relationships that govern groundwater flow and age, (2) generation of consistent examples for training a machine-learning metamodel, and (3) serving as a starting point for more detailed models. Comparison of the GSMs to IMs indicated a qualified pattern of agreement for residence-time distributions as indicated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Spearman’s correlation coefficient. The agreement was best for the median values of the simulated residence times in young fractions of groundwater (defined as the fractions of groundwater in samples less than 65 years old) at the scale of the eight-digit hydrologic-unit code. Generally, the median values of the young fractions in the IMs were correlated with the median values from the GSMs. The relative trends across the four areas also were similar for the other residence-time metrics. The medians of residence-time metrics at finer scales show a fair degree of scatter. The GSM results compared most poorly for median travel times in the older fraction of groundwater (older than 65 years). The GSM approach is intended as a flexible framework for developing models that can be useful individually as screening tools or collectively to support projects in statistical learning. Although one set of GSM algorithms was presented here, the approach can accommodate many types of data and also different categories of prior information. Comparison of GSMs and IMs suggests ways in which the GSMs, while remaining easy to construct and calibrate, can be improved for estimating groundwater travel times. IMs do not yield exact travel times, and matching GSMs to IMs does not guarantee an improvement; however, IMs provide a convenient benchmark against which to explore relations between physical characteristics of watersheds and the distribution of travel times within them. This effort was undertaken as part of the National Water Quality Program of the U.S. Geological Survey to assist in determining the susceptibility of groundwater in glacial aquifers to a variety of natural and anthropogenic contaminants.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Channel and floodplain cross-section and bed-elevation analyses of the Green River in Echo, Island, and Rainbow Parks, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah

This report by the U.S. Geological Survey focuses on describing geomorphic changes in the alluvial segments of the Green River within Echo, Island, and Rainbow Parks of Dinosaur National Monument, between the 1990s and 2019. Substantial channel change occurred within these meandering alluvial segments following the construction and closure of Flaming Gorge Dam in 1962. Geomorphic analyses in the early 1990s documented this change, but variations in dam operations, climate, and the natural sand supply from the Yampa River have since occurred. It was unclear whether channel change within those meandering alluvial segments had continued since the early 1990s; hence, our study provides an update to previous work. This study used three primary methods to quantify the amount and style of channel change that occurred within those alluvial segments of the Green River: (1) digital aerial-photograph analyses, (2) surveys of alluvial topography in the 1990s and 2019 at fixed cross-section locations, and (3) surveys of channel bathymetry in 1998 and 2019. Our analyses show that channel narrowing has continued, with declines in channel width of 4 percent in Echo Park, 16 percent in Island Park, and 15 percent in Rainbow Park from 1993 through 2019. In 11 of the 15 cross sections examined, vertical accretion of sediment on the floodplain and lateral accretion of sediment on the channel margins led to net sediment deposition and a loss of cross-sectional area. Mean changes in bed elevations showed slight erosion; however, bed elevations were considered stable within the bounds of measurement uncertainty and annual variability within the study area. These results show that channel change has continued to occur in these alluvial segments of the Green River from 1993 through 2019, with the dominant changes including sediment deposition and channel narrowing. Although changes in the operations of Flaming Gorge Dam have occurred, these changes have had little effect on flood peak or duration in the segment of the Green River downstream from its confluence with the Yampa River. Instead, ongoing channel change is likely driven by the amount of sediment supplied from the Yampa River, the duration and magnitude of the combined annual spring snowmelt flood from both the Green River upstream from the Yampa River confluence and the Yampa River, and the capacity of this flood to convey the supplied sediment through these wider alluvial reaches.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2026

Groundwater-level elevations in the bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–23

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS2006

Geohydrological characterization, water-chemistry, and ground-water flow simulation model of the Sonoma Valley area, Sonoma County, California

The Sonoma Valley, located about 30 miles north of San Francisco, is one of several basins in Sonoma County that use a combination of ground water and water delivered from the Russian River for supply. Over the past 30 years, Sonoma Valley has experienced rapid population growth and land-use changes. In particular, there has been a significant increase in irrigated agriculture, predominantly vineyards. To provide a better understanding of the ground-water/surface-water system in Sonoma Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey compiled and evaluated existing data, collected and analyzed new data, and developed a ground-water flow model to better understand and manage the ground-water system. The new data collected include subsurface lithology, gravity measurements, groundwater levels, streamflow gains and losses, temperature, water chemistry, and stable isotopes. Sonoma Valley is drained by Sonoma Creek, which discharges into San Pablo Bay. The long-term average annual volume of precipitation in the watershed is estimated to be 269,000 acre-feet. Recharge to the ground-water system is primarily from direct precipitation and Sonoma Creek. Discharge from the ground-water system is predominantly outflow to Sonoma Creek, pumpage, and outflow to marshlands and to San Pablo Bay. Geologic units of most importance for groundwater supply are the Quaternary alluvial deposits, the Glen Ellen Formation, the Huichica Formation, and the Sonoma Volcanics. In this report, the ground-water system is divided into three depth-based geohydrologic units: upper (less than 200 feet below land surface), middle (between 200 and 500 feet), and lower (greater than 500 feet). Synoptic streamflow measurements were made along Sonoma Creek and indicate those reaches with statistically significant gains or losses. Changes in ground-water levels in wells were analyzed by comparing historical contour maps with the contour map for 2003. In addition, individual hydrographs were evaluated to assess temporal changes by region. In recent years, pumping depressions have developed southeast of Sonoma and southwest of El Verano. Water-chemistry data for samples collected from 75 wells during 2002-04 indicate that the ground-water quality in the study area generally is acceptable for potable use. The water from some wells, however, contains one or more constituents in excess of the recommended standards for drinking water. The chemical composition of water from creeks, springs, and wells sampled for major ions plot within three groups on a trilinear diagram: mixed-bicarbonate, sodium-mixed anion, and sodium-bicarbonate. An area of saline ground water in the southern part of the Sonoma Valley appears to have shifted since the late 1940s and early 1950s, expanding in one area, but receding in another. Sparse temperature data from wells southwest of the known occurrence of thermal water suggest that thermal water may be present beneath a larger part of the valley than previously thought. Thermal water contains higher concentrations of dissolved minerals than nonthermal waters because mineral solubilities generally increase with temperature. Geohydrologic Characterization, Water-Chemistry, and Ground-Water Flow Simulation Model of the Sonoma Valley Area, Sonoma County, California Oxygen-18 (d18 O) and deuterium (dD) values for water from most wells plot along the global meteoric water line, indicating that recharge primarily is derived from the direct infiltration of precipitation or the infiltration of seepage from creeks. Samples from shallow- and intermediate-depth wells located near Sonoma Creek and (or) in the vicinity of Shellville plot to the right of the global meteoric water line, indicating that these waters are partly evaporated. The d18 O and dD composition of water from sampled wells indicates that water from wells deeper than 200 feet is isotopically lighter (more negative) than water from wells less than 200 feet deep, possibly indicating that older ground wate

California↗

USGS2012

Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land-use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were lower than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a concentrations decreased during the same summer season. The decrease in nitrogen and chlorophyll a concentrations during the dry summer in 2006 was enough to decrease concentrations of these constituents very slightly, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 3, the changes in simulated nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in very slight changes in simulated water quality within Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition, for most of the reservoir. Among the implications of the results of the modeling described in this report are those related to scale in both space and time. Spatial scales include limited size and location of land-use changes, their effects on loading rates, and resultant effects on water quality of Lake Maumelle. Temporally, the magnitude of the water-quality changes simulated by the land-use change scenarios over the 7-year period (2004–10) are not necessarily indicative of the changes that could be expected to occur with similar land-use changes persisting over a 20-, 30-, or 40- year period, for example. These implications should be tempered by realization of the described model limitations. The Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was calibrated to streamflow and water-quality data from five streamflow-gaging stations, and in general, these stations characterize a range of subwatershed areas with varying land-use types. The CE–QUAL–W2 reservoir model was calibrated to water-quality data collected during January 2004 through December 2010 at three reservoir stations, representing the upper, middle, and lower sections of the reservoir. In general, the baseline simulation for the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN and the CE–QUAL–W2 models matched reasonably well to the measured data. Simulated and measured suspended-sediment concentrations during periods of base flow (streamflows not substantially influenced by runoff) agree reasonably well for Maumelle River at Williams Junction, the station representing the upper end of the watershed (with differences—simulated minus measured value—generally ranging from -15 to 41 milligrams per liter, and percent difference—relative to the measured value—ranging from -99 to 182 percent) and Maumelle River near Wye, the station just above the reservoir at the lower end (differences generally ranging from -20 to 22 milligrams per liter, and percent difference ranging from -100 to 194 percent). In general, water temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentration simulations followed measured seasonal trends for all stations with the largest differences occurring during periods of lowest temperatures or during the periods of lowest measured dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For the CE–QUAL–W2 model, simulated vertical distributions of water temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations agreed with measured vertical distributions over time, even for the most complex water-temperature profiles. Considering the oligotrophic-mesotrophic (low to intermediate primary productivity and associated low nutrient concentrations) condition of Lake Maumelle, simulated algae, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations compared well with generally low measured concentrations.

Arkansas↗

USGS2014

Contaminants of emerging concern in ambient groundwater in urbanized areas of Minnesota, 2009-12

A study of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in ambient groundwater in urbanized areas of Minnesota was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. For this study, water samples were collected from November 2009 through June 2012 from 118 wells located in different land-use settings. The sampled wells primarily were screened in vulnerable sand and gravel aquifers (surficial and buried glacial aquifers) or vulnerable bedrock aquifers such as the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer. Sampled well depths ranged from 9 to 285 feet below land surface. Water samples were collected by Minnesota Pollution Control Agency staff. The water samples were analyzed at U.S. Geological Survey laboratories for steroidal hormones, human-use pharmaceutical compounds, human- and animal-use antibiotics, and a broad suite of organic chemicals associated with wastewater. Reported detections were censored and not counted as detections in the data analyses if the chemical was detected in a laboratory or field blank at a similar concentration. During this study, 38 out of 127 CECs analyzed were detected among all water samples collected. Three of the detected CECs, however, were analyzed using two different analytical methods, so 35 distinct chemicals were detected. The number of detections of CECs in individual water samples ranged from 0 to 10. The three wells in proximity to landfills had the most CEC detections. One or more CECs were detected in a total of 43 samples (35 percent); no CECs were detected in 80 samples. Of the 127 CECs included for analysis in this study, 28 have established enforceable or non-enforceable health-based water-quality standards or benchmarks. Fourteen of the 35 chemicals detected in this study have established water-quality standards, whereas 21 of the chemicals detected have no established standard or benchmark. All detections in this study were less than established health-based water-quality standards, although p-cresol was detected at a concentration nearing a health-based water quality standard. Four of the six most frequently detected chemicals—azithromycin, diphenhydramine, tributyl phosphate, and lincomycin—have no health-based water-quality standards or benchmarks. The antibiotic sulfamethoxazole was the most frequently detected CEC, detected in a total of 14 of 123 samples (11.4 percent) by one or both analytical methods that include sulfamethoxazole as an analyte. Most (11 of 14, or 79 percent) of the detections of sulfamethoxazole were in samples from domestic wells or monitoring wells located in areas where septic systems or potentially leaking centralized sewers are prevalent. The chemical N,N-Diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET) was detected at the highest concentration of any CEC, at 7.9 micrograms per liter. Bisphenol A was detected second most frequently of all chemicals. DEET and Bisphenol A were detected most frequently in wells in proximity to closed landfills. Samples from bedrock wells, most of which are drinking water wells that are deeper than glacial wells, had a higher percentage of wells with CEC detections compared to samples from wells completed in glacial aquifers. The higher dissolved oxygen concentrations and lower specific conductance for the bedrock wells sampled indicate shorter duration flow paths from the land surface to these wells than for wells completed in glacial aquifers.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Status of water-level altitudes and long-term and short-term water-level changes in the Chicot and Evangeline (undifferentiated) and Jasper aquifers, greater Houston area, Texas, 2022

Since the early 1900s, groundwater withdrawn from the primary aquifers that compose the Gulf Coast aquifer system—the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers—has been an important source of water in the greater Houston area, Texas. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting the status of water-level altitudes and water-level changes in these aquifers in the greater Houston area. In this report, the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers are treated as a single hydrogeologic unit for the purposes of providing annual assessments of regional-scale water-level altitudes and changes over time. In 2022, shaded depictions of water-level altitudes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers (undifferentiated) ranged from about 270 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) to about 195 ft above NAVD 88. The largest decline in water-level altitudes indicated by the 1977–2022 long-term water-level-change map was southeast of The Woodlands. In comparison, the 1990–2022 long-term water-level-change map depicts declines in water-level altitudes in localized areas at or near certain wells in parts of northwestern Harris County and southern Montgomery County. The largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1977–2022 was observed in a relatively large area in southeastern Harris County, whereas the largest rise in water-level altitudes for 1990–2022 was observed in a relatively small area in central Harris County. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest declines at three wells in northern Fort Bend County and the largest rises at five wells in southwestern and central Harris County. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest decline at a well in north-central Harris County and the largest rises at a well in north-central Fort Bend County and a well in southwestern Harris County. In 2022, shaded depictions of water-level altitudes for the Jasper aquifer ranged from about 213 ft below NAVD 88 to about 285 ft above NAVD 88. The 2000–22 long-term water-level-change map depicts water-level declines throughout most of the study area where water-level-measurement data from the aquifer were collected, with the largest decline in north-central Harris County and south-central Montgomery County south of The Woodlands. The 5-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest decline at a well in Conroe and the largest rise at a well in south-central Montgomery County. The 1-year short-term water-level-change map depicts the largest decline at a well in south-central Montgomery County east of The Woodlands and the largest rise at a well in Conroe.

Texas↗

USGS2006

BLM Density Management and Riparian Buffer Study: Establishment Report and Study Plan

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), Pacific Northwest Research Station (PNW), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Oregon State University (OSU) established the BLM Density Management and Riparian Buffer Study (DMS) in 1994 to demonstrate and test options for young stand management to meet Northwest Forest Plan objectives in western Oregon. The primary objectives of the DMS are to evaluate the effects of alternative forest density management treatments in young stands on the development of important late-successional forest habitat attributes and to assess the combined effects of density management and alternative riparian buffer widths on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. The DMS consists of three integrated studies: initial thinning, rethinning, and riparian buffer widths. The initial thinning study was installed in 50- to 80-year-old stands that had never been commercially thinned. Four stand treatments of 30-60 acres each were established at each of seven study sites: (1) unthinned control, (2) high density retention [120 trees per acre (TPA)], (3) moderate density retention (80 TPA), and (4) variable density retention (40-120 TPA). Small (1/4 to 1 acre in size) leave islands were included in all treatments except the control, and small patch cuts (1/4 to 1 acre in size) were included in the moderate and variable density treatments. An eighth site, Callahan Creek, contains a partial implementation of the study design. The rethinning study was installed in four 70- to 90-year-old stands that previously had been commercially thinned. Each study stand was split into two parts: one part as an untreated control and the other part as a rethinning (30-60 TPA). The riparian buffer study was nested within the moderate density retention treatment at each of the eight initial thinning study sites and two rethinning sites. Alternative riparian buffer widths included: (1) streamside retention (one tree canopy width, or 20-25 feet), (2) variable width (follows topographic and vegetative breaks, 50 feet slope distance minimum), (3) one full site-potential tree height (approximately 220 feet), and (4) two full tree heights (approximately 440 feet). A second round of density management manipulations are now being planned for implementation beginning in 2009. Stem density will be reduced in the high, moderate, and variable density treatments and most existing riparian buffers, leave islands, and patch cuts will remain in place. Remeasurement, data management, and analysis are ongoing for three long-term, core components of the DMS: vegetation, microclimate, and aquatic vertebrates. In addition, several short-term collaborative studies have been completed on these sites, including leave island effectiveness as refugia, treatment response of terrestrial and aquatic arthropods, and smaller-scale studies of fungal, lichen, and bryophyte community response. Additional collaborative studies are encouraged on DMS sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Groundwater resources of the Harney Basin, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater development has increased substantially in southeastern Oregon’s Harney Basin since 2010, mainly for the purpose of large-scale irrigation. Concurrently, some areas of the basin experienced groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet, and some shallow wells have gone dry. The Oregon Water Resources Department has limited new groundwater development in the basin until an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system is available. This report describes the results of a hydrologic investigation undertaken to provide that understanding. The investigation encompasses the groundwater hydrology of the entire 5,240-square-mile Harney Basin. Most of the precipitation in the Harney Basin falls in the higher-elevation areas of the Blue Mountains and Steens Mountain. Although considerable groundwater recharge occurs in these upland areas, most (83 percent) re-emerges as streams and springs in the uplands. Groundwater recharge in the lowlands is provided through infiltration of surface water flowing onto the lowlands from rivers and streams leaving the uplands and as groundwater flow from the surrounding upland rocks. Water-balance calculations indicate that the rate of groundwater recharge to the Harney Basin lowlands (where most groundwater is withdrawn) averages 173,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). Groundwater in the Harney Basin lowlands mainly discharges through evapotranspiration from groundwater-irrigated (supplied from wells) crops or from natural vegetation drawing groundwater from the shallow water table and capillary fringe. Groundwater discharge in the lowlands is estimated to be about 283,000 acre-ft/yr, which exceeds the estimated groundwater recharge to the lowlands by about 110,000 acre-ft/yr. This imbalance results in removal of groundwater from storage in the aquifer system and is evidenced by the large declines observed in groundwater levels in the areas of greatest groundwater pumpage. To a large degree, the location and depth of pumpage dictate the timing and distribution of the effects of groundwater use in the Harney Basin. Pumpage is commonly greatest in the areas where higher-permeability geologic units allow for higher well yields. However, many of these higher-permeability units are bounded by lower-permeability units that cannot supply groundwater at a sufficient rate to replenish the areas of greatest pumpage, resulting in groundwater-level declines. Three Harney Basin areas with a combined area exceeding 140 square miles have experienced groundwater-level declines exceeding 40 feet compared to pre-development conditions: near the Weaver Spring/Dog Mountain area, in the northeastern floodplains along Highway 20, and near Crane. Areas of more modest groundwater-level decline (about 10 feet) were identified in the Virginia Valley area and the Silver Creek floodplain north of Riley. Smaller localized areas of groundwater-level depression have also formed around individual wells or groups of wells throughout the Harney Basin lowlands. Most groundwater being pumped from the Harney Basin lowlands, including all three areas experiencing large groundwater-level declines, was recharged more than 12,000 years ago, near the end of the last glacial period when the climate in the basin was cooler and wetter than today. Geochemical evidence indicates that modern recharge generally circulates to a depth no greater than 100 feet below the floodplains of major rivers and streams in the lowlands. Away from the major river and stream corridors, pre-modern water commonly is found at the water table. Recharge to groundwater and recovery of groundwater levels in the most heavily pumped areas in the Harney Basin lowlands are restricted by the limited spatial extent and depth of modern recharge in the Harney Basin lowlands and the relatively fine-grained deposits underlying most of the lowland areas.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Optimization assessment of a groundwater-level observation network in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA), measures groundwater levels continuously (hourly) and discretely (semiannually and annually) at a network of wells and piezometers (hereafter called the observation network) within the Middle Rio Grande Basin in central New Mexico. Groundwater levels that are measured in this observation network provide a long-term hydrologic dataset that is heavily relied upon to make water management decisions. The desire to upgrade and perform maintenance on this observation network initiated this study, which assesses the spatial and temporal importance of measurements towards optimization of monitoring the observation network to reduce or redirect monitoring costs. This report describes the methods and results of the optimization assessment of this observation network, which included separate spatial and temporal methodologies and an evaluation using principal component analysis (PCA). Results from the spatial optimization assessment can be used to help identify observation network sites that do not significantly affect the generation of winter groundwater-elevation contour maps of the production zone. Results from the temporal optimization assessment and PCA can also be consulted when deciding which sites to remove from the network, especially for sites that are monitored more frequently than annually. Results from the temporal optimization assessment can be used to inform the minimum monitoring frequency at the observation network required to capture the trends shown in higher frequency monitoring. The PCA results distinguish spatially distributed characteristic water-level trends that can inform the management decisions that are made when using the spatial and temporal optimization assessment results. Reducing the temporal frequency or spatial density of monitoring is ultimately a management decision that depends on the amount of data loss or degradation that is deemed acceptable while still meeting the network objectives of the ABCWUA. This study can also serve as a starting point to a data gap analysis of local aquifer characteristics and help guide enhanced observation network design as needs arise or in advance of future water management decisions. The results of the spatial optimization assessment indicate that as many as about 20 specified sites can be removed from the observation network with a relatively small loss in the ability to represent the kriged groundwater-elevation surfaces of the production zone that were generated by using median groundwater elevations for two periods: the 2001 time interval and 2015 time interval. This analysis also demonstrated the importance of wells at the margin of the study area and in areas where there are large hydrologic gradients. At many of the 47 hourly monitored sites analyzed in the temporal optimization assessment, temporal trends were well represented for at least one of the reduced monitoring frequencies tested, indicating that a reduced frequency may be sufficient to adequately characterize seasonal and long-term trends. PCA and k-means clustering analysis of the 15 hourly monitored sites that are screened within the production zone indicate that the sites can be categorized into four groups, or clusters, of differing groundwater-level hydrograph characteristics. Except for one cluster, all of the clusters have the potential to be well represented by fewer index monitoring sites.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2012

Preliminary assessment of sources of nitrogen in groundwater at a biosolids-application area near Deer Trail

Concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate increased fairly steadily in samples from four shallow groundwater monitoring wells after biosolids applications to nonirrigated farmland began in 1993. The U.S. Geological Survey began a preliminary assessment of sources of nitrogen in shallow groundwater at part of the biosolids-application area near Deer Trail, Colorado, in 2005 in cooperation with the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District. Possible nitrogen sources in the area include biosolids, animal manure, inorganic fertilizer, atmospheric deposition, and geologic materials (bedrock and soil). Biosolids from the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District plant in Denver and biosolids, cow manure, geologic materials (bedrock and soil), and groundwater from the study area were sampled to measure nitrogen content and nitrogen isotopic compositions of nitrate or total nitrogen. Biosolids also were leached, and the leachates were analyzed for nitrogen content and other concentrations. Geologic materials from the study area also were sampled to determine mineralogy. Estimates of nitrogen contributed from inorganic fertilizer and atmospheric deposition were calculated from other published reports. The nitrogen information from the study indicates that each of the sources contain sufficient nitrogen to potentially affect groundwater nitrate concentrations. Natural processes can transform the nitrogen in any of the sources to nitrate in the groundwater. Load calculations indicate that animal manure, inorganic fertilizer, or atmospheric deposition could have contributed the largest nitrogen load to the study area in the 13 years before biosolids applications began, but biosolids likely contributed the largest nitrogen load to the study area in the 13 years after biosolids applications began. Various approaches provided insights into sources of nitrate in the groundwater samples from 2005. The isotopic data indicate that, of the source materials considered, biosolids and (or) animal manure were the most likely sources of nitrate in the wells at the time of sampling (2005), and that inorganic fertilizer, atmospheric deposition, and geologic materials were not substantial sources of nitrate in the wells in 2005. The large total nitrogen content of the biosolids and animal-manure samples and biosolids leachates also indicates that the biosolids and animal manure had potential to leach nitrogen and produce large dissolved nitrate concentrations in groundwater. The available data, however, could not be used to distinguish between biosolids or manure as the dominant source of nitrate in the groundwater because the nitrogen isotopic composition of the two materials is similar. Major-ion data also could not be used to distinguish between biosolids or manure as the dominant source of nitrate in the groundwater because the major-ion composition (as well as the isotopic composition) of the two materials is similar. Without additional data, chloride/bromide mass ratios do not necessarily support or refute the hypothesis that biosolids and (or) animal manure were the primary sources of nitrate in water from the study-area wells in 2005. Concentrations of water-extractable nitrate in the soil indicate that biosolids could be an important source of nitrate in the groundwater recharge. Nitrogen inventories in the soil beneath biosolids-application areas and the nitrogen-input estimates for the study area both support the comparisons of isotopic composition, which indicate that some type of human waste (such as biosolids) and (or) animal manure was the source of nitrate in groundwater sampled from the wells in 2005. The nitrogen-load estimates considered with the nitrogen isotopic data and the soil-nitrogen inventories indicate that biosolids applications likely are a major source of nitrogen to the shallow groundwater at these monitoring wells.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Assessment of undiscovered copper resources of the world, 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey completed the first-ever global assessment of undiscovered copper resources for the two most significant sources of global copper supply: porphyry copper deposits and sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits. The geology-based study identified 236 areas for undiscovered copper in 11 regions of the world. Estimated amounts of undiscovered copper resources are reported at different levels of probability. The results of the assessment indicate that a mean of at least 3,500 million metric tons (Mt) of undiscovered copper associated with these deposit types may exist worldwide, exceeding the 2,100 Mt of identified copper resources tabulated for these deposit types. Porphyry copper deposits contain 1,800 Mt of identified copper resources and are estimated to contain a mean of at least 3,100 Mt of undiscovered copper resources. South America is the dominant source for both identified and undiscovered porphyry copper resources. However, several regions of Asia, including China, have significant potential for undiscovered porphyry copper resources. The amount of mean undiscovered porphyry copper resources that may be economic to extract varies as a function of likely depth to a deposit and quality of local infrastructure that could support mining. Sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits contain 310 Mt of identified copper resources and are estimated to contain a mean of at least 420 Mt of undiscovered copper resources. The sedimentary basins that may contain significant undiscovered copper resources are the Katanga Basin in central Africa, the Southern Permian Basin of Poland and Germany, the Chu-Sarysu Basin of Kazakhstan, and the Kodar-Udokan area of Russia. Sedimentary basins in the Northwest Botswana Rift in Botswana and Namibia, the Benguela and Cuanza Basins of Angola, and the Cambrian rocks of Egypt, Israel, and Jordan are recognized as having significant potential for undiscovered copper resources in sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits; however, these areas require additional research, analysis, and evaluation before quantitative resource estimates can be made. The estimate of at least 3,500 Mt of undiscovered copper in two deposit types provides a basis for long-range planning for this important commodity. U.S. copper consumption is 2 Mt per year, world consumption is about 20 Mt per year, and global production from these two deposit types is about 12 Mt per year. Total global copper production from all deposit types from 1879 to 2012 was about 600 Mt. The world’s use of mineral resources, such as copper, will continue to increase in the foreseeable future to support a growing world population and increasing standards of living. The world has sufficient copper to last for decades. However, increases in exploration and growth in mining capacity will be necessary to identify and develop undiscovered resources to supply projected demand.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

A computer program for estimating instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River, Montana

The Yellowstone River is very important in a variety of ways to the residents of southeastern Montana; however, it is especially vulnerable to spilled contaminants. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a study to develop a computer program to rapidly estimate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River using regression equations developed in 1999 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to describe these equations and their limitations, describe the development of a computer program to apply the equations to the Yellowstone River, and provide detailed instructions on how to use the program. This program is available online at [http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5057/includes/ytot.xls]. The regression equations provide estimates of instream travel times and concentrations in rivers where little or no contaminant-transport data are available. Equations were developed and presented for the most probable flow velocity and the maximum probable flow velocity. These velocity estimates can then be used to calculate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant. The computer program was developed so estimation equations for instream travel times and concentrations can be solved quickly for sites along the Yellowstone River between Corwin Springs and Sidney, Montana. The basic types of data needed to run the program are spill data, streamflow data, and data for locations of interest along the Yellowstone River. Data output from the program includes spill location, river mileage at specified locations, instantaneous discharge, mean-annual discharge, drainage area, and channel slope. Travel times and concentrations are provided for estimates of the most probable velocity of the peak concentration and the maximum probable velocity of the peak concentration. Verification of estimates of instream travel times and concentrations for the Yellowstone River requires information about the flow velocity throughout the 520 mi of river in the study area. Dye-tracer studies would provide the best data about flow velocities and would provide the best verification of instream travel times and concentrations estimated from this computer program; however, data from such studies does not currently (2006) exist and new studies would be expensive and time-consuming. An alternative approach used in this study for verification of instream travel times is based on the use of flood-wave velocities determined from recorded streamflow hydrographs at selected mainstem streamflow-gaging stations along the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the most probable velocity for the base flow estimated from the computer program are within the accepted range of 2.5 to 4.0 and indicate that flow velocities estimated from the computer program are reasonable for the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the maximum probable velocity are within a range of 1.9 to 2.8 and indicate that the maximum probable flow velocities estimated from the computer program, which corresponds to the shortest travel times and maximum probable concentrations, are conservative and reasonable for the Yellowstone River.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Chance findings about early holocene tidal marshes of Grays Harbor, Washington, in relation to rapidly rising seas and great subduction earthquakes

Tidal marshes commonly build upward apace with gradual rise in the level of the sea. It is expected, however, that few tidal marshes will keep up with accelerated sea-level rise later in this century. Tidal marshes have been drowned, moreover, after subsiding during earthquakes. This report tells of ancient marshes that endured rapid sea-level rise in a region that subsides during earthquakes. The soils of these marshes were unexpectedly encountered in borings for a public-works project at Grays Harbor, Washington. The borings were logged quickly and only a few of the core sections were conserved. The limited findings pose puzzles about how the ancient marshes endured and what their history implies for earthquake hazards. The borings establish that tidal marshes persisted during the early Holocene at Grays Harbor, an estuary along the Cascadia Subduction Zone of western North America. The persistent marshes are recorded by a unit of peaty mud up to 10 m thick and as much as 40 m below present sea level in the drowned valley of the Chehalis River. The unit was encountered in two areas 4 km apart that were tidal flats in the 19th century. The marshes originated less than 10,000 years ago and endured through most or all of an estimated 500–1,500 years. The borings further show that these persistent marshes eventually yielded to tidal flats, tidal channels, or both. The change is marked by sand and mud that overlie the peaty mud at a typically sharp contact. The marshes were drowned about 8,600–8,400 years ago if the sand and mud buried them promptly, or later if the sand and mud filled channels that migrated across the peaty mud. In one of the studied areas, tidal marshes became re-established locally in the early Holocene and widely in the middle Holocene, and deposits of middle Holocene marshes were overrun as recently as 1,000 years ago by a gravelly tidal channel. In the other area, tidal-flat and probably subtidal deposits make up all of the middle and late Holocene section below artificial fill; if marshes became re-established in this area after about 8,600–8,400 years ago, their deposits have been lost to erosion. The puzzles posed by these findings include: (1) How did the marshes manage to endure centuries of relative sea-level rise that likely approached 1 cm/yr on average? (2) Did the marshes also endure subsidence that accompanied great thrust earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone? (3) Was their eventual drowning triggered by a Cascadia earthquake of unusually large size, or can the drowning be explained by sea-level rise that included a jump from drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz?

Washington↗