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USGS2010

Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations

Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWC is experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate observation system are needed to reduce uncertainties and to detect and document ongoing changes in all system components for further evidence of Arctic FWC intensification.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS1992

Precipitation estimation in mountainous terrain using multivariate geostatistics. Part II: isohyetal maps

Values of average annual precipitation (AAP) may be important for hydrologic characterization of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Reliable measurements of AAP are sparse in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, and estimates of AAP were needed for an isohyetal mapping over a 2600-square-mile watershed containing Yucca Mountain. Estimates were obtained with a multivariate geostatistical model developed using AAP and elevation data from a network of 42 precipitation stations in southern Nevada and southeastern California. An additional 1531 elevations were obtained to improve estimation accuracy. Isohyets representing estimates obtained using univariate geostatistics (kriging) defined a smooth and continuous surface. Isohyets representing estimates obtained using multivariate geostatistics (cokriging) defined an irregular surface that more accurately represented expected local orographic influences on AAP. Cokriging results included a maximum estimate within the study area of 335 mm at an elevation of 7400 ft, an average estimate of 157 mm for the study area, and an average estimate of 172 mm at eight locations in the vicinity of the potential repository site. Kriging estimates tended to be lower in comparison because the increased AAP expected for remote mountainous topography was not adequately represented by the available sample. Regression results between cokriging estimates and elevation were similar to regression results between measured AAP and elevation. The position of the cokriging 250-mm isohyet relative to the boundaries of pinyon pine and juniper woodlands provided indirect evidence of improved estimation accuracy because the cokriging result agreed well with investigations by others concerning the relationship between elevation, vegetation, and climate in the Great Basin. Calculated estimation variances were also mapped and compared to evaluate improvements in estimation accuracy. Cokriging estimation variances were reduced by an average of 54% relative to kriging variances within the study area. Cokriging reduced estimation variances at the potential repository site by 55% relative to kriging. The usefulness of an existing network of stations for measuring AAP within the study area was evaluated using cokriging variances, and twenty additional stations were located for the purpose of improving the accuracy of future isohyetal mappings. Using the expanded network of stations, the maximum cokriging estimation variance within the study area was reduced by 78% relative to the existing network, and the average estimation variance was reduced by 52%.

Nevada↗

USGS2023

Four decades of regional wet deposition, local bulk deposition, and stream-water chemistry show the influence of nearby land use on forested streams in Central Appalachia☆

Hydrologic monitoring began on two headwater streams (<1 km 2 ) on the University of Kentucky's Robinson Forest in 1971. We evaluated stream-water (1974–2013) and bulk-deposition (wet + dust) (1984–2013) chemistry in the context of regional wet-deposition patterns that showed decreases in both sulfate and nitrate concentrations as well as proximal surface-mine expansion. Decadal time steps (1974–83, 1984–93, 1994–2003, 2004–2013) were used to quantify change. Comparison of the first two decades showed similarly decreased sulfate (minimum flow-adjusted annual-mean concentration of ≈13.5 mg/L in 1982 to 8.8 mg/L in 1992) and increased pH (6.6–6.8) in both streams, reflecting contemporaneous changes in both bulk and wet deposition. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate (0.14 to >0.25 mg/L) and base cations increased between these two decades, coinciding with expansion of surface mining between 1985 and 1995. In 2004, stream-water pH (6.7 in 2004), sulfate (9.2 mg/L), and nitrate (>0.11 mg/L) were similar to 1982, despite wet-deposition concentrations being lower. Base-cation concentrations were higher in the stream adjacent to ongoing surface mining relative to the stream situated near the middle of the experimental forest. However, pH decreased to approximately 5.7 by 2013 for both streams, which, combined with a shift in dominant cations from calcium to magnesium and potassium, indicates that the soil-buffering capacity of this landscape has been exceeded. Ratios of bulk deposition and stream-water concentrations indicate enrichment of sulfate (1.7–25.2) and cations (0.5–64.8), but not nitrogen (0.1–5.6), indicating that the Forest is not nitrogen saturated and that ongoing changes in water-quality are sulfate driven. When concentrations were adjusted to account for changes in streamflow (climate) over the 4 decades, external influences (land management/regulation) explained most change. The amount and direction of change differed among constituents, both between consecutive decades and between the first and last decades, reflecting the influence of localized surface mining even as regional wet deposition continued to improve due to the Clean Air Act. The implication is that localized stressors have the potential to out-pace the benefits of national environmental policies for communities that depend on local water-resources in similar environments.

Kentucky↗

USGS1998

An improved technique for modeling initial reservoir hydrocarbon saturation distributions: Applications in Illinois (USA) aux vases oil reservoirs

An improved technique for modeling the initial reservoir hydrocarbon saturation distributions is presented. In contrast to the Leverett J-function approach, this methodology (hereby termed flow-unit-derived initial oil saturation or FUSOI) determines the distributions of the initial oil saturations from a measure of the mean hydraulic radius, referred to as the flow zone indicator (FZI). FZI is derived from porosity and permeability data. In the FUSOI approach, capillary pressure parameters, S(wir), P(d), and ??, derived from the Brooks and Corey (1966) model [Brooks, R.H., Corey, A.T., 1966. Hydraulic properties of porous media, Hydrology Papers, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, No. 3, March.], are correlated to the FZI. Subsequent applications of these parameters then permit the computation of improved hydrocarbon saturations as functions of FZI and height above the free water level (FWL). This technique has been successfully applied in the Mississippian Aux Vases Sandstone reservoirs of the Illinois Basin (USA). The Aux Vases Zeigler field (Franklin County, IL, USA) was selected for a field-wide validation of this FUSOI approach because of the availability of published studies. With the initial oil saturations determined on a depth-by-depth basis in cored wells, it was possible to geostatistically determine the three-dimensional (3-D) distributions of initial oil saturations in the Zeigler field. The original oil-in-place (OOIP), computed from the detailed initialization of the 3-D reservoir simulation model of the Zeigler field, was found to be within 5.6% of the result from a rigorous material balance method.An improved technique for modeling the initial reservoir hydrocarbon saturation distributions is presented. In contrast to the Leverett J-function approach, this methodology (hereby termed flow-unit-derived initial oil saturation or FUSOI) determines the distributions of the initial oil saturations from a measure of the mean hydraulic radius, referred to as the flow zone indicator (FZI). FZI is derived from porosity and permeability data. In the FUSOI approach, capillary pressure parameters, Swir, Pd, and ??, derived from the Brooks and Corey (1966) model, are correlated to the FZI. Subsequent applications of these parameters then permit the computation of improved hydrocarbon saturations as functions of FZI and height above the free water level (FWL). This technique has been successfully applied in the Mississippian Aux Vases Sandstone reservoirs of the Illinois Basin (USA). The Aux Vases Zeigler field (Franklin County, IL, USA) was selected for a field-wide validation of this FUSOI approach because of the availability of published studies. With the initial oil saturations determined on a depth-by-depth basis in cored wells, it was possible to geostatistically determine the three-dimensional (3-D) distributions of initial oil saturations in the Zeigler field. The original oil-in-place (OOIP), computed from the detailed initialization of the 3-D reservoir simulation model of the Zeigler field, was found to be within 5.6% of the result from a rigorous material balance method.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering↗

USGS2012

Heat flow and energetics of the San Andreas fault zone

Approximately 100 heat flow measurements in the San Andreas fault zone indicate (1) there is no evidence for local factional heating of the main fault trace at any latitude over a 1000-km length from Cape Mendocino to San Bernardino, (2) average heat flow is high (∼2 HFU, ∼80 mW m −2 ) throughout the 550-km segment of the Coast Ranges that encloses the San Andreas fault zone in central California; this broad anomaly falls off rapidly toward the Great Valley to the east, and over a 200-km distance toward the Mendocino Triple Junction to the northwest. As others have pointed out, a local conductive heat flow anomaly would be detectable unless the frictional resistance allocated to heat production on the main trace were ≲100 bars. Frictional work allocated to surface energy of new fractures is probably unimportant, and hydrologic convection is not likely to invalidate the conduction assumption, since the heat discharge by thermal springs near the fault is negligible. Explanations for the low dynamic friction fall into two intergradational classes: those in which the fault is weak all of the time and those in which it is weak only during earthquakes (possibly just large ones). The first class includes faults containing anomalously weak gouge materials and faults containing materials with normal frictional properties under near-lithostatic steady state fluid pressures. In the second class, weakening is caused by the event (for example, a thermally induced increase in fluid pressure, dehydration of clay minerals, or acoustic fluidization). In this class, unlike the first, the average strength and ambient tectonic shear stress may be large, ∼1 kbar, but the stress allocated to elastic radiation (the apparent stress) must be of similar magnitude, an apparent contradiction with seismic estimates. Unless seismic radiation is underestimated for large earthquakes, it is difficult to justify average tectonic stresses on the main trace of the San Andreas fault in excess of ∼200 bars. The development of the broad Coast Range heat flow anomaly southward from Cape Mendocino suggests that heat flow increases by a factor of 2 within 4 m.y. after the passage of the Mendocino Triple Junction. This passage leaves the San Andreas transform fault zone in its wake; the depth of the anomalous sources cannot be much greater than the depth of the seismogenic layer. Some of the anomalous heat may be supplied by conduction from the warmer mantle that must occur south of the Mendocino transform (where there is no subducting slab), and some might be supplied by shear heating in the fault zone. With no contribution from shear heating, extreme mantle upwelling would be required, and asthenosphere conditions should exist today at depths of only ∼20 km in the northernmost Coast Ranges. If there is an appreciable contribution from shear heating, the heat flow constraint implies that the seismogenic layer is partially decoupled at its base and that the basal traction is in the sense that resists right lateral motion on the fault(s). As a result of these basal tractions, the average shearing stress in the seismogenic layer would increase with distance from the main fault, and the seismogenic layer would offer substantial resistance to plate motion even though resistance on the main fault might be negligible. These speculative models have testable consequences.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2001

Nest survival of forest birds in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

In the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, flood control has led to a drastic reduction in the area of forest habitat and altered the patchwork of forest cover types. Silvicultural management of the remaining fragmented forests has changed to reflect the altered hydrology of the forests, current economic conditions of the area, and demand for forest products. Because forest type and silvicultural management impact forest birds, differences in avian productivity within these forests directly impact bird conservation. To assist in conservation planning, we evaluated daily nest survival, nest predation rates, and brood parasitism rates of forest birds in relation to different forest cover types and silvicultural management strategies within this floodplain. Within bottomland hardwood forests, nest success of blue-gray gnatcatcher ( Polioptila caerulea , 13%), eastern towhee ( Pipilo erythrophthalmus , 28%), indigo bunting ( Passerina cyanea , 18%), northern cardinal ( Cardinalis cardinalis , 22%), and yellow-billed cuckoo ( Coccyzus americanus , 18%) did not differ from that within intensively managed cottonwood plantations. However, average daily survival of 542 open-cup nests of 19 bird species in bottomland hardwoods (0.9516 ± 0.0028, ∼27% nest success) was greater than that of 543 nests of 18 species in cottonwood plantations (0.9298 ± 0.0035, ∼15% nest success). Differences in daily nest survival rates likely resulted from a combination of differences in the predator community -- particularly fire ants ( Solenopsis invicta ) -- and a marked difference in species composition of birds breeding within these 2 forest types. At least 39% of nests in bottomland hardwood forests and 65% of nests in cottonwood plantations were depredated. Rates of parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) were greater in managed cottonwoods (24%) than in bottomland hardwoods (9%). Nest success in planted cottonwood plantations for 18 species combined (∼14%), and for yellow-breasted chat ( Icteria virens , 7%), eastern towhee (14%), indigo bunting (14%), and northern cardinal (17%) did not differ from nest success in cottonwood plantations that were coppiced from root sprouts following pulpwood harvest. Within bottomland hardwood forests, uneven-aged group-selection timber harvest reduced the combined daily nest survival of all species from 0.958 to 0.938, which reduced nest success by about 14%. Specifically, timber harvest reduced nest success of species that nest in the forest midstory and canopy, such as Acadian flycatcher ( Empidonax virescens ), from 32% before harvest to 14% after harvest. Conversely, those species that nest primarily in the shrubby understory-such as northern cardinal-were not affected by timber harvest and maintained an overall nest success of about 33%. Thus, birds nesting in the understory of bottomland hardwood forests are not adversely impacted by selective timber harvest, but there is a short-term reduction in nest success for birds that nest in the canopy and midstory.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗