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Range-wide assessment of livestock grazing across the sagebrush biome

Domestic livestock grazing occurs in virtually all sagebrush habitats and is a prominent disturbance factor. By affecting habitat condition and trend, grazing influences the resources required by, and thus, the distribution and abundance of sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (for example, sage-grouse Centrocercus spp.). Yet, the risks that livestock grazing may pose to these species and their habitats are not always clear. Although livestock grazing intensity and associated habitat condition may be known in many places at the local level, we have not yet been able to answer questions about use, condition, and trend at the landscape scale or at the range-wide scale for wildlife species. A great deal of information about grazing use, management regimes, and ecological condition exists at the local level (for individual livestock management units) under the oversight of organizations such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). However, the extent, quality, and types of existing data are unknown, which hinders the compilation, mapping, or analysis of these data. Once compiled, these data may be helpful for drawing conclusions about rangeland status, and we may be able to identify relationships between those data and wildlife habitat at the landscape scale. The overall objective of our study was to perform a range-wide assessment of livestock grazing effects (and the relevant supporting data) in sagebrush ecosystems managed by the BLM. Our assessments and analyses focused primarily on local-level management and data collected at the scale of BLM grazing allotments (that is, individual livestock management units). Specific objectives included the following: 1. Identify and refine existing range-wide datasets to be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. 2. Assess the extent, quality, and types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data collected by BLM range-wide (i.e., across allotments, districts and regions). 3. Compile and synthesize recommendations from federal and university rangeland science experts about how BLM might prioritize collection of different types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data. 4. Investigate whether range-wide datasets (Objective 1) could be used in conjunction with remotely sensed imagery to identify across broad scales (a) allotments potentially not meeting BLM Land Health Standards (LHS) and (b) allotments in which unmet standards might be attributable to livestock grazing. Objective 1: We identified four datasets that potentially could be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. First, we obtained the most current spatial data (typically up to 2007, 2008, or 2009) for all BLM allotments and compiled data into a coarse, topologically enforced dataset that delineated grazing allotment boundaries. Second, we obtained LHS evaluation data (as of 2007) for all allotments across all districts and regions; these data included date of most recent evaluation, BLM determinations of whether region-specific standards were met, and whether BLM deemed livestock to have contributed to any unmet standards. Third, we examined grazing records of three types: Actual Use (permittee-reported), Billed Use (BLM-reported), and Permitted Use (legally authorized). Finally, we explored the possibility of using existing Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Ecological Site Description (ESD) data to make up-to-date estimates of production and forage availability on BLM allotments. Objective 2: We investigated the availability of BLM livestock grazing-related monitoring data and the status of LHS across 310 randomly selected allotments in 13 BLM field offices. We found that, relative to other data types, the most commonly available monitoring data were Actual Use numbers (permittee-reported livestock numbers and season-of-use), followed by Photo Point, forage Utilization, and finally, Vegetation Trend measurement data. Data availability and frequency of data collection varied across allotments and field offices. Analysis of the BLM's LHS data indicated 67 percent of allotments analyzed were meeting standards. For those not meeting standards, livestock were considered the causal factor in 45 percent of cases (about 15 percent of all allotments). Objective 3: We sought input from 42 university and federal rangeland science experts about how best to prioritize rangeland monitoring activities associated with ascertaining livestock impacts on vegetation resources. When we presented a hypothetical scenario to these scientists and asked them to prioritize monitoring activities, the most common response was to measure ground and vegetation cover, a variable that in many cases (10 of 13 field offices sampled) BLM had already identified as a monitoring priority. Experts identified several other traditional (for example, photo points) and emerging approaches (for example, high-resolution aerial photography) to monitoring. Objective 4: We used spatial allotment data (described in Objective 1) and remotely sensed vegetation data (sagebrush cover, herbaceous vegetation cover, litter and bare soil) to assess differences in allotment LHS status ("Not met" vs. "Met"; if "Not met" - livestock-caused vs. not). We then developed logistic regression models, using vegetation variables to predict LHS status of BLM allotments in sagebrush steppe habitats in Wyoming and portions of Montana and Colorado. In general, we found that more consistent data collection at the local level might improve suitability of data for broad-scale analyses of livestock impacts. As is, data collection methodologies varied across field offices and States, and we did not find any local-level monitoring data (Actual Use, Utilization, Vegetation Trend) that had been collected consistently enough over time or space for range-wide analyses. Moreover, continued and improved emphasis on monitoring also may aid local management decisions, particularly with respect to effects of livestock grazing. Rangeland science experts identified ground cover as a high monitoring priority for assessing range condition and emphasized the importance of tracking livestock numbers and grazing dates. Ultimately, the most effective monitoring program may entail both increased data collection effort and the integration of alternative monitoring approaches (for example, remote sensing or monitoring teams). In the course of our study, we identified three additional datasets that could potentially be used for range-wide analyses: spatial allotment boundary data for all BLM allotments range-wide, LHS evaluations of BLM allotments, and livestock use data (livestock numbers and grazing dates). It may be possible to use these spatial datasets to help prioritize monitoring activities over the extensive land areas managed by BLM. We present an example of how we used spatial allotment boundary data and LHS data to test whether remotely sensed vegetation characteristics could be used to predict which allotments met or did not meet LHS. This approach may be further improved by the results of current efforts by BLM to test whether more intensive (higher resolution) LHS assessments more accurately describe land health status. Standardized data collection in more ecologically meaningful land units may improve our ability to use local-level data for broad-scale analyses.

Open-File Report↗

Science framework for the conservation and restoration strategy of DOI secretarial order 3336: Utilizing resilience and resistance concepts to assess threats to sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse, prioritize conservation and restoration actions, and inform management strategies

The Science Framework for the Conservation and Restoration Strategy of the Department of the Interior, Secretarial Order 3336 (SO 3336), Rangeland Fire Prevention, Management and Restoration, provides a strategic, multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies across the sagebrush biome. The emphasis of this version is on sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse. The Science Framework uses a six step process in which sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive annual grasses is linked to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. The predominant ecosystem and anthropogenic threats are assessed, and a habitat matrix is developed that helps decision makers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies at regional and local scales. Areas are prioritized for management action using a geospatial approach that overlays resilience and resistance, species habitat information, and predominant threats. Decision tools are discussed for determining the suitability of priority areas for management and the most appropriate management actions at regional to local scales. The Science Framework and geospatial crosscut are intended to complement the mitigation strategies associated with the Greater Sage-Grouse Land Use Plan amendments for the Department of the Interior Bureaus, such as the Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Forest Service.

Report↗

Assessment of Ambystomatid salamander populations and their breeding habitats in the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area

This report presents abundance and occurrence data for three species of ambystomad salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum, A. jeffersonianum, and A. opacum ) collected over a 3-year period (2000, 2001, and 2002) at 200 potentional breeding sies within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (DEWA). In addition, numerous measures of inpond, near-pond, and landscape attributes were measured and used to inform statistical models to determine species-habitat relationships in the DEWA. The results of a 3-year study of ambystomatid salamander breeding habits and habitats in the (DEWA) that was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, are described in the report. The objectives of the study were to document the population status and critical breeding habitats of the three species of ambystomatid salamanders known to be present in the DEWA— Ambystoma maculatum (spotted salamander), A. opacum (marbled salamander), and A. jeffersonianum (Jefferson salamander). DEWA managers are interested in ecological information on these species for several reasons. First, at the time the study began, there was little known regarding the status of pond-breeding amphibians and their habitats in the DEWA. Second, because they require undegraded habitats in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats to successfully complete their life cycles, the status of ambystomatid salamanders is widely viewed as indicative of overall ecosystem health. Third, because ambystomatid salamanders and other pond-breeding amphibians have been observed in numerous artificial impoundments with the DEWA, park managers would like to assess whether dismantling or discontinuing maintenance of artificial impoundments could affect pond-breeding amphibians and possibly other species that use pond or wetland habitats in the Park. In 2001, 2002, and 2003, the size and location of 200 wetlands, ponds, and artificial impoundments, and related landscape positions (Ridge versus Valley; Pennsylvania side versus New Jersey side of the Delaware river) were mapped, and site habitat data relating to salamander occurrence and abundance patterns were collected. The data collected during this study provide important new baseline information on ambystomatid salamanders and wetland habitats in the DEWA that will enhance long-term inventory and monitoring efforts. In addition, breeding habitat assessments indicate that ambystomatid salamanders may be sensitive to a wide variety of stresses important in the DEWA and in the region. In particular, recent trends in development (for example, roads) in and near the DEWA, regional increases in the acidity of precipitation, and predicted long-term warming trends for the region could be detrimental to pond-breeding salamander populations because of their effects on breeding site quality and quantity, and on the integrity of migration corridors. In contrast, the results of the study indicate management plans to eliminate small impoundments are not likely to adversely affect salamanders in DEWA, at least in the short-term. However, it is possible that these small impoundments may offer stable habitats that provide a rescure effect during long-term droughts.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗

Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is the focus of most papers in this Special Section, we posit that many of the issues that characterize the remote, relatively undisturbed ecosystems of high northern latitudes are widespread and thus applicable to natural-resource management and conservation across northern portions of the Holarctic ecozone and indeed anywhere broad-scale monitoring is contemplated.

Biological Conservation↗

LANDFIRE: A nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment

LANDFIRE is a 5-year, multipartner project producing consistent and comprehensive maps and data describing vegetation, wildland fuel, fire regimes and ecological departure from historical conditions across the United States. It is a shared project between the wildland fire management and research and development programs of the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and US Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE meets agency and partner needs for comprehensive, integrated data to support landscape-level fire management planning and prioritization, community and firefighter protection, effective resource allocation, and collaboration between agencies and the public. The LANDFIRE data production framework is interdisciplinary, science-based and fully repeatable, and integrates many geospatial technologies including biophysical gradient analyses, remote sensing, vegetation modelling, ecological simulation, and landscape disturbance and successional modelling. LANDFIRE data products are created as 30-m raster grids and are available over the internet at www.landfire.gov , accessed 22 April 2009. The data products are produced at scales that may be useful for prioritizing and planning individual hazardous fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration projects; however, the applicability of data products varies by location and specific use, and products may need to be adjusted by local users.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Sleepers River, Vermont: a Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets Program site

The Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont was established by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 1959 and is now operated jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), will collaboration from several other Federal Agencies and Universities. The USGS has contributed to the understanding of hydrological processes and added a major biogeochemical cycling research component in the last 10 years of Sleepers River's 40-year history as a field laboratory. The USGS uses hydrologic measurements and chemical and isotopic tracing techniques to determine how water moves from the hillslope to the stream, and what processes cause chemical changes, such as neutralization of acid rain. Research results provide insights on how pollutants move through ecosystems, and how ecosystems may respond to climatic change.

Vermont↗

U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program - Science Supporting Mineral Resource Stewardship

The United States is the world's largest user of mineral resources. We use them to build our homes and cities, fertilize our food crops, and create wealth that allows us to buy goods and services. Individuals rarely use nonfuel mineral resources in their natural state - we buy light bulbs, not the silica, soda ash, lime, coal, salt, tungsten, copper, nickel, molybdenum, iron, manganese, aluminum, and zinc used to convert electricity into light. The USGS Mineral Resources Program (MRP) is the sole Federal source of scientific information and unbiased research on nonfuel mineral potential, production, and consumption, as well as on the environmental effects of minerals. The MRP also provides baseline geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-deposit data used to understand environmental issues related to extraction and use of mineral resources. Understanding how minerals, water, plants, and organisms interact contributes to our understanding of the environment, which is essential for maintaining human and ecosystem health. To support creation of economic and national security policies in a global context, MRP collects and analyzes data on essential mineral commodities from around the world.

Fact Sheet↗

Linking physical monitoring to coho and Chinook salmon populations in the Redwood Creek Watershed, California—Summary of May 3–4, 2012 Workshop

On Thursday, May 3, 2012, a science workshop was held at the Redwood National and State Parks (RNSP) office in Arcata, California, with researchers and resource managers working in RNSP to share data and expert opinions concerning salmon populations and habitat in the Redwood Creek watershed. The focus of the workshop was to discuss how best to synthesize physical and biological data related to the freshwater and estuarine phases of salmon life cycles in order to increase the understanding of constraints on salmon populations. The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Status and Trends (S&T) Program National Park Monitoring Project ( http://www.fort.usgs.gov/brdscience/ParkMonitoring.htm ), which supports USGS research on priority topics (themes) identified by the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) and S&T. The NPS has organized more than 270 parks with significant natural resources into 32 Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Networks ( http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/networks.cfm ) that share funding and core professional staff to monitor the status and long-term trends of selected natural resources ( http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor ). All 32 networks have completed vital signs monitoring plans (available at http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor/MonitoringPlans.cfm ), containing background information on the important resources of each park, conceptual models behind the selection of vital signs for monitoring the condition of natural resources, and the selection of high priority vital signs for monitoring. Vital signs are particular physical, chemical, and biological elements and processes of park ecosystems that represent the overall health or condition of the park, known or hypothesized effects of stressors, or elements that have important human values (Fancy and others, 2009). Beginning in 2009, the I&M program funded projects to analyze and synthesize the biotic and abiotic data generated by vital signs monitoring and previous in-park natural resource monitoring and inventories to provide useful information, models, and tools to park managers for addressing resource management issues. The workshop described in this report is an element of the project funded by USGS NPS-I&M program to conduct a synthesis of salmon-related datasets in the Klamath (KLMN) and San Francisco Bay Area (SFAN) networks of national parks. The synthesis focused on four park units: Redwood National Park (KLMN), Point Reyes National Seashore, Muir Woods National Monument, and Golden Gate National Recreation Area (SFAN).

California↗

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗

Transient coastal landscapes: Rising sea level threatens salt marshes

Salt marshes are important coastal environments that provide key ecological services. As sea level rise has accelerated globally, concerns about the ability of salt marshes to survive submergence are increasing. Previous estimates of likely survival of salt marshes were based on ratios of sea level rise to marsh platform accretion . Here we took advantage of an unusual, long-term (1979–2015), spatially detailed comparison of changes in a representative New England salt marsh to provide an empirical estimate of habitat losses based on actual measurements. We show prominent changes in habitat mosaic within the marsh, consistent and coincident with increased submergence and coastal erosion . Model results suggest that at current rates of sea level rise, marsh platform accretion, habitat loss, and with the limitation of the widespread “coastal squeeze”, the entire ecosystem might disappear by the beginning of the next century, a fate that might be likely for many salt marshes elsewhere. Meta-analysis of available data suggests that 40 to 95% of the world's salt marshes will be submerged, depending on whether sea level rise remains at current or reaches anticipated rates for the end of this century.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Survey of bats on Columbia National Wildlife Refuge, Washington, December 2011-April 2012

Bats are diverse and abundant in many ecosystems worldwide. They perform important ecosystem functions, particularly by consuming large quantities of insects (Cleveland and others, 2006; Jones and others, 2009; Kuhn and others, 2011). The importance of bats to biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity has been overlooked in many regions, largely because the challenges of detecting and studying these small, nocturnal mammals have rendered a paucity of information on matters as basic as species distribution and natural history attributes. Recently, concern for bats has arisen in response to recognition of large-scale threats, such as white-nosed syndrome (WNS; Turner and others, 2009; Frick and others, 2010) and mortality at wind energy facilities (Arnett and others, 2008), factors that are causing unprecedented population declines of bats (Boyles and others, 2011). WNS is a fungal disease that has killed more than 1 million cave-hibernating bats in eastern North America since being discovered in New York State in 2006 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012). WNS has spread rapidly from northeastern U.S., and as of August 2012 has been confirmed as far west as eastern Missouri(U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013). Given the rapid spread of WNS, there is concern that the disease may soon affect western bat populations. Hibernating bats are particularly vulnerable to the effects of WNS (Blehert and others, 2009). Refuges in eastern Washington, including the Mid-Columbia River National Wildlife Refuge Complex (MCRNWRC) and Little Pend Oreille National Wildlife Refuge, support many potential hibernacula. Sixteen species of bats potentially occur on these refuges, including one federally listed species of concern (Townsend’s big-eared bat [Corynorhinus townsendii]; see table 1 for scientific names of bats), and 12 species that are of conservation concern in Washington and Oregon (table 1). However, little is known about bats on these refuges because few surveys have been done, and none have been done during winter. Refuge biologists are lacking even the most basic information, such as species presence, and location and status of hibernacula. In order to assess vulnerability and develop a strategy for management of WNS, refuge managers need to know where bats are hibernating, and which species are using each hibernaculum. The goal of this project was to provide information on the status of wintering bats to refuge biologists and managers in order to support decision-making that might minimize the threat of WNS in western bat populations. We conducted surveys of bat activity in winter and early spring as an initial step toward identifying bat species that may be over-wintering and locating potential hibernacula on these refuges. Our specific objectives were to identify bat species using the refuges, to identify areas of resident bat activity in autumn, winter, and early spring using acoustic bat detectors, and to try new methods for quick surveys of bat activity.

Oregon;Washington↗

Using Cape Sable seaside sparrow distribution data for water management decision support

The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis; hereafter sparrow) is endemic to south Florida and a key indicator species of marl prairie, the most diverse freshwater community in the Florida Everglades. Marl prairie habitat is shaped by intermediate levels of disturbances such as flooding, drying, and fire, which maintain periphyton production (Gaiser et al. 2011), vegetation composition (Sah et al. 2011), and habitat structure for wildlife (Lockwood et al. 2003). Historically, patches of marl prairie shifted in response to changing climatic conditions,; however, habitat loss and hydrologic alteration have restricted the sparrow’s range and increased their sensitivity to changing hydropatterns. As a result, sparrow numbers have declined as much as 60% range-wide since 1992 (Curnutt et al. 1998, Nott et al. 1998). Currently, the sparrow is restricted to the freshwater prairies of the Everglades National Park (ENP) and Big Cypress Preserve (Lockwood et al. 1997). Because this non-migratory bird is restricted in its range it was among the first species to be listed as endangered by the US Fish and Wildlife Service on March 11, 1967 (Pimm et al. 2000). Now protected by the Endangered Species Act of 1973, the sparrow is listed as an endangered species, and the marl prairies that it resides in are listed as critical habitat. Since its designation as an endangered species, federal agencies have a statutory obligation to not jeopardize the survival of the species or modify its critical habitat. However, there are still uncertainties in how to increase suitable habitat within and surrounding the six existing sparrow subpopulations (Fig. 1) which are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity because of their small population size and restricted range. Since Because maintenance and creation of suitable habitat is seen as the most important pathway to the persistence of sparrow subpopulations (Sustainable Ecosystems Institute 2007), emphasis should be on identifying factors affecting sparrow habitat suitability and expanding the total area of suitable habitat over a gradient of environmental conditions. Our objective is to improve the definition of suitable sparrow habitat based on the relationship between daily sparrow distributions from 1992-present and hydrologic and habitat variables. Further, these models can provide an estimate of habitat quality when linked with estimates of reproductive responses.

Report↗

Comparing maps of mean monthly surface temperature and precipitation for Alaska and adjacent areas of Canada produced by two different methods

Maps of mean monthly surface temperature and precipitation for Alaska and adjacent areas of Canada, produced by Oregon State University's Spatial Climate Analysis Service (SCAS) and the Alaska Geospatial Data Clearinghouse (AGDC), were analyzed. Because both sets of maps are generally available and in use by the community, there is a need to document differences between the processes and input data sets used by the two groups to produce their respective set of maps and to identify similarities and differences between the two sets of maps and possible reasons for the differences. These differences do not affect the observed large-scale patterns of seasonal and annual variability. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones, with consistent but different variability, separated by a transition region. The transition region has high interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Both data sets support the four major ecosystems and ecosystem transition zone identified in our earlier work. Differences between the two sets of maps do occur, however, on the regional scale; they reflect differences in physiographic domains and in the treatment of these domains by the two groups (AGDC, SCAS). These differences also provide guidance for an improved observational network for Alaska. On the basis of validation with independent in situ data, we conclude that the data set produced by SCAS provides the best spatial coverage of Alaskan long-term mean monthly surface temperature and precipitation currently available.

Alaska, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Y↗

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is being conducted on the Colorado Plateau region of the western United Sates.

Conference Paper↗

Near-surface stratigraphy and morphology, Mississippi Inner Shelf, northern Gulf of Mexico

Over the past decade, the Mississippi Barrier Islands have been the focus of a comprehensive geologic investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the National Park Service (NPS). The islands (Dauphin, Petite Bois, Horn, East Ship, West Ship, and Cat) are part of the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS), and provide a diverse ecological habitat, protect the mainland from storm waves, and help maintain estuarine conditions within Mississippi Sound. Over the past century, the islands have been in a state of decline with respect to elevation and land-area loss. In 2005, the islands were severely impacted by Hurricane Katrina, which inundated them with a storm surge of 8 meters, causing severe shoreface erosion and widening breaches in Dauphin, West Ship, and Cat Islands. To evaluate the impact and fate of the islands, understanding their evolution and resiliency became a priority for the USGS under the Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project. The project formed the basis for collaboration with the USACE Mississippi Coastal Improvement Project, which is intended to restore portions of coastal Mississippi and GUIS affected by storm impact. Since then, many studies have contributed to our understanding of the islands’ morphology and nearshore stratigraphy. This report expands upon the nearshore component to provide a stratigraphic and morphologic assessment offshore of Petit Bois Island. In June 2013, as part of the MsCIP project, the USGS conducted a geophysical survey consisting of about 650 line-kilometers (km), encompassing an area of approximately 212 square kilometers (km 2 ). The survey area extended from 1 to 13 km offshore of Petite Bois Island. The geophysical investigation included interferometric swath bathymetry, sidescan sonar, and chirp subbottom profiling. The intent of the survey was to provide geologic information that would assist the USACE in developing a sediment sampling strategy for identifying deposits suitable for shoreline restoration operations. The data from the geophysical survey would also further our understanding of the geologic framework along the inner shelf. Numerous seafloor and subbottom features were identified. At the surface, shoals and shelf sand sheets of various sizes and orientations are the predominant morphology. In the subsurface, Holocene- and Pleistocene-age features include marine transgressive deposits infilling older fluvia distributary systems. These interpretations from the geophysical research were integrated with sediment cores collected by the USGS and USACE to provide textural and volumetric information.

Mississippi-Alabama shelf↗

Assessment of the effect of road construction and other modifications on surface-water flow at St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuge, Franklin County, Florida

St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuge is managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). The refuge was acquired in 1968 from a private land owner and occupies all of St. Vincent Island, a barrier island located off the southern coast of the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola (fig. 1). The island, which covers 12,358 acres, is about 9 miles long and 4 miles across at its widest point. Eighty miles of unpaved roads that grid the island are presently used for refuge management, law enforcement, and visitor hiking trails. Prior to becoming a refuge, the natural flow of surface water on the island was altered by road and ditch construction that enabled timbering of pine. Restoring the natural flow of surface water on the island to its historical state is one of the USFWS's goals for ecosystem restoration. During past road construction activities, fill was placed in the creeks to create raised roadbeds. This activity changed the natural flow of surface water by (1) acting as an earthen dam that impounded creeks; (2) restricting flow, thus increasing the depth of water in the channels of creeks; or (3) blocking the natural movement of saltwater in the creeks in coastal areas, thus altering water salinity. Along some sections of road, grading substantially lowered land-surface elevations. Along these sections of roads, adjacent creeks commonly flowed into one another during high-water conditions, thus allowing the transfer of water from one drainage basin to another. In some areas on the island, ditches were dug to manipulate the movement of surface water.

Florida↗

The impact of future climate on wetland habitat in a critical migratory waterfowl corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region

Depressional wetlands are extremely sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, so understanding how wetland inundation dynamics respond to changes in climate is essential for describing potential effects on wildlife breeding habitat. Millions of depressional basins make up the largest wetland complex in North America known as the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). The wetland ecosystems that have formed in these basins provide important migratory-bird breeding habitat. The southeast portion of the U.S. PPR in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. Many existing prairie-pothole wetlands are small (<1 ha) and shallow (<2 m) and are typically not inundated with surface water year-round. Our goal with this project is to increase the efficacy of mapping tools used by management agencies to predict future changes in water levels in the PPR. We accomplish this goal by improving the link between existing data (about wetland water characteristics) and existing tools (mapping products). Our results successfully validated (2009-2021) the current mapping tool (a wetland hydrology model) used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to manage 22 wetlands in Minnesota. We were able to hindcast wetland water levels to 1984 and assess the accuracy of a satellite-derived surface water product and forecast water levels through 2099 using a suite of modeled climate data. This newly refined link between monitoring data and remote sensing tools will increase understanding and prediction for other wetlands beyond our study sites and through the Minnesota and Iowa portions of the PPR. Through conference presentations, publications, and development of an interactive climate change dashboard we are now working with managers to determine how we can help incorporate these predicted changes to waterfowl breeding habitat into their future management, acquisition, and restoration strategy.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, Nebra↗

Archive of single-beam bathymetry data collected during USGS cruise 07CCT01 nearshore of Fort Massachusetts and within Camille Cut, West and East Ship Islands, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi, July 2007

The Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS) is composed of a series of barrier islands along the Mississippi - Alabama coastline. Historically these islands have undergone long-term shoreline change. The devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 prompted questions about the stability of the barrier islands and their potential response to future storm impacts. Additionally, there was concern from the National Park Service (NPS) about the preservation of the historical Fort Massachusetts, located on West Ship Island. During the early 1900s, Ship Island was an individual island. In 1969 Hurricane Camille breached Ship Island, widening the cut and splitting it into what is now known as West Ship Island and East Ship Island. In July of 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was able to provide the NPS with a small bathymetric survey of Camille Cut using high-resolution single-beam bathymetry. This provided GUIS with a post-Katrina assessment of the bathymetry in Camille Cut and along the northern shoreline directly in front of Fort Massachusetts. Ultimately, this survey became an initial bathymetry dataset toward a larger USGS effort included in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project ( http://ngom.usgs.gov/gomsc/mscip/ ). This report serves as an archive of the processed single-beam bathymetry. Data products herein include gridded and interpolated digital depth surfaces and x,y,z data products. Additional files include trackline maps, navigation files, geographic information system (GIS) files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Scanned images of the handwritten FACS logs and digital FACS logs are also provided as PDF files. Refer to the Acronyms page for description of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report or hold the cursor over an acronym for a pop-up explanation. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 07CCT01 tells us the data were collected in 2007 for the Coastal Change and Transport (CCT) study and the data were collected during the first (01) field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. Data were collected using a 26-foot (ft) Glacier Bay catamaran. The single-beam transducers were sled mounted on a rail attached between the catamaran hulls. Navigation was acquired using HYPACK, Inc., Hypack version 4.3a.7.1 and differentially corrected using land-based GPS stations. See the digital FACS equipment log for details about the acquisition equipment used. Raw datasets were stored digitally and processed systematically using NovAtel's Waypoint GrafNav version 7.6, SANDS version 3.7, and ESRI ArcGIS version 9.3.1. For more information on processing refer to the Equipment and Processing page.

Mississippi↗