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Dust emission at Franklin Lake Playa, Mojave Desert (USA): Response to meteorological and hydrologic changes 2005-2008

Playa type, size, and setting; playa hydrology; and surface-sediment characteristics are important controls on the type and amount of atmospheric dust emitted from playas. Soft, evaporite-rich sediment develops on the surfaces of some Mojave Desert (USA) playas (wet playas), where the water table is shallow (< 4 m). These areas are sources of atmospheric dust because of continuous or episodic replenishment of wind-erodible salts and disruption of the ground surface during salt formation by evaporation of ground water. Dust emission at Franklin Lake playa was monitored between March 2005 and April 2008. The dust record, based on day-time remote digital camera images captured during high wind, and compared with a nearby precipitation record, shows that aridity suppresses dust emission. High frequency of dust generation appears to be associated with relatively wet periods, identified as either heavy precipitation events or sustained regional precipitation over a few months. Several factors may act separately or in combination to account for this relation. Dust emission may respond rapidly to heavy precipitation when the dissolution of hard, wind-resistant evaporite mineral crusts is followed by the development of soft surfaces with thin, newly formed crusts that are vulnerable to wind erosion and (or) the production of loose aggregates of evaporite minerals that are quickly removed by even moderate winds. Dust loading may also increase when relatively high regional precipitation leads to decreasing depth to the water table, thereby increasing rates of vapor discharge, development of evaporite minerals, and temporary softening of playa surfaces. The seasonality of wind strength was not a major factor in dust-storm frequency at the playa. The lack of major dust emissions related to flood-derived sediment at Franklin Lake playa contrasts with some dry-lake systems elsewhere that may produce large amounts of dust from flood sediments. Flood sediments do not commonly accumulate on the surface of Franklin Lake playa because through-going drainage prevents frequent inundation and deposition of widespread flood sediment.

Natural Resources and Environmental Issues↗

Snowpack signals in North American tree rings

Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and variability in mountain snowpack is limited by the relatively short and strongly temperature forced observational record. Motivated by the urgent need to better understand snowpack dynamics in a long-term, spatially coherent framework, here we examine snow-growth relationships in western North American tree-ring chronologies. We present an extensive network of snow-sensitive proxy data to support high space/time resolution paleosnow reconstruction, quantify and interpret the type and spatial density of snow related signals in tree-ring records, and examine the potential for regional bias in the tree-ring based reconstruction of different snow drought types (dry versus warm). Our results indicate three distinct snow-growth relationships in tree-ring chronologies: moisture-limited snow proxies that include a spring temperature signal, moisture-limited snow proxies lacking a spring temperature signal, and energy-limited snow proxies. Each proxy type is based on distinct physiological tree-growth mechanisms related to topographic and climatic site conditions, and provides unique information on mountain snowpack dynamics that can be capitalized upon within a statistical reconstruction framework. This work provides a platform and foundational background required for the accelerated production of high-quality annually-resolved snowpack reconstructions from regional to high (<12 km) spatial scales in western North America, and by extension, will support an improved understanding of the vulnerability of snowmelt-derived water resources to natural variability and future climate warming.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Surface-Water Quantity and Quality of the Upper Milwaukee River, Cedar Creek, and Root River Basins, Wisconsin, 2004

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (SEWRPC), collected discharge and water-quality data at nine sites in previously monitored areas of the upper Milwaukee River, Cedar Creek, and Root River Basins, in Wisconsin from May 1 through November 15, 2004. The data were collected for calibration of hydrological models that will be used to simulate how various management strategies will affect the water quality of streams. The data also will support SEWRPC and Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) managers in development of the SEWRPC Regional Water Quality Management Plan and the MMSD 2020 Facilities Plan. These management plans will provide a scientific basis for future management decisions regarding development and maintenance of public and private waste-disposal systems. In May 2004, parts of the study area received over 13 inches of precipitation (3.06 inches is normal). In June 2004, most of the study area received between 7 and 11 inches of rainfall (3.56 inches is normal). This excessive rainfall caused flooding throughout the study area and resultant high discharges were measured at all nine monitoring sites. For example, the mean daily discharge recorded at the Cedar Creek site on May 27, 2004, was 2,120 cubic feet per second. This discharge ranked ninth of the largest 10 mean daily discharges in the 75-year record, and was the highest discharge recorded since March 30, 1960. Discharge records from continuous monitoring on the Root River Canal near Franklin since October 1, 1963, indicated that the discharge recorded on May 23, 2004, ranked second highest on record, and was the highest discharge recorded since March 4, 1974. Water-quality samples were taken during two base-flow events and six storm events at each of the nine sites. Analysis of water-quality data indicated that most concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, fecal coliform bacteria, chloride, suspended solids, nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total copper, particulate mercury, dissolved mercury, particulate methylmercury, dissolved methylmercury, and total zinc were below U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and State of Wisconsin water-quality standards at all sites, with the exception of dissolved oxygen at the Kewaskum, Farmington, Root River Canal, Root River Racine, and Root River Mouth sites. Each of these sites had from several days to several weeks of daily average dissolved oxygen concentrations below the 5 milligrams per liter State of Wisconsin standard for aquatic life. The lowest dissolved oxygen concentrations were measured at the heavily urbanized Root River Mouth site in downtown Racine, Wisconsin, where elevated concentrations of ammonia may have contributed to oxygen consumption during oxidation of ammonia to nitrate. Additionally, the maximum concentrations of copper in several Root River samples exceeded draft USEPA Ambient Water-Quality Criteria (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2003) for acute toxicity to several species of aquatic organisms. Substantial water-quality changes were not correlated with hydrologic changes at any of the nine sites. Base-flow water-quality was generally indistinguishable from that sampled during storm events. The sparsely developed upper Milwaukee River and Cedar Creek Basins had relatively low ranges of contamination for all laboratory-reported parameters. For all nine sites, the highest reported concentrations of chloride (216 mg/L), total phosphorus (0.627 mg/L), ortho-phosphorus (0.136 mg/L), nitrate plus nitrate (9.32 mg/L), and copper (38 ?g/L) were reported for samples collected at the Root River Canal site. The highest concentrations of fecal coliforms (3,600 colonies per 100 mL) and Escherichia coli (2,300 colonies per 100 mL) were reported in samples collected at Kewaskum. The highest concentrations of s

Open-File Report↗

Holocene core logs and site statistics for modern patch-reef cores: Biscayne National Park, Florida

The bedrock in Biscayne National Park (BNP), a 1,730-square kilometer (km2) region off southeast Florida, consists of Pleistocene (1.8 million years ago (Ma) to 10,000 years ago (ka)) and Holocene (10 ka to present) carbonate rocks (Enos and Perkins, 1977; Halley and others, 1997; Multer and others, 2002). Most of the surficial limestone in BNP, including the islands of the Florida Keys, was formed at ~125 ka during the highstand of marine oxygen-isotope substage 5e, when sea level was approximately 6 meters (m) higher than today (Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Multer and others, 2002; Lidz and others, 2003; Siddall and others, 2003; Balsillie and Donoghue, 2004). During the substage-5e regression, the entire Florida Platform became exposed. Subaerial exposure lasted for approximately 115,000 years (kyr), which resulted in erosion and enhancement of karst-like features (Lidz and others, 2006). As the Holocene transgression began to flood the Florida shelf ~7 to 6 ka, the bedrock depression under Biscayne Bay began to flood, and Holocene coral and reef debris laid the foundation for the present reef system (Enos and Perkins, 1977; Lighty and others, 1982; Toscano and Macintyre, 2003; Lidz and others, 2006). More than 3,000 patch reefs exist within the BNP boundary. Most contain hermatypic corals of various species such as those belonging to Montastrea, Diploria, Siderastrea, Porites, Acropora, and Agaricia. Patch reefs within BNP have two morphologies: pinnacle and flat top. Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) data collected along the offshore BNP coral reef tract show that these two morphologies are clearly defined both in the high-resolution bathymetry maps produced by the Lidar data and by statistical analyses of the Lidar dataset (Brock and others, 2008). Brock and others (2008) also show that the pinnacle patch reefs are deeper than the more shallow, broad, and flat patch reefs. The control for these two patch-reef morphologies is unclear; however, their shapes may be due to a slightly lowered sea level or a stillstand in the middle-Holocene around 4 ka that caused erosion of the shallower reefs and allowed the deeper reefs to remain unaffected. Lidz and others (2006) have suggested a stillstand around 4 ka that carved a 2.5-kilometer (km)-wide nearshore rock ledge into the seaward side of every island in the Florida Keys. The objectives of this study were to sample living corals to understand the more recent (<200 years) changes in climate and environmental conditions of the area and to investigate the Holocene (in this case, <8,000 years in the Florida Keys) depositional history at progressively deeper patch-reef sites. This report provides statistics for the cores and core sites and a basic lithologic description of these Holocene cores.

Florida↗

A Retrospective Analysis on the Occurrence of Arsenic in Ground-Water Resources of the United States and Limitations in Drinking-Water-Supply Characterizations

The Safe Drinking Water Act, as amended in 1996, requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to review current drinking-water standards for arsenic, propose a maximum contaminant level for arsenic by January 1, 2000, and issue a final regulation by January, 2001. Quantification of the national occurrence of targeted ranges in arsenic concentration in ground water used for public drinking-water supplies is an important component of USEPA's regulatory process. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) were used in a retrospective analysis of arsenic in the ground-water resources of the United States. The analysis augments other existing sources of data on the occurrence of arsenic collected in ground water at public water-supply systems.The USGS, through its District offices and national programs, has been compiling data for many years on arsenic concentrations collected from wells used for public water supply, research, agriculture, industry, and domestic water supply throughout the United States. These data have been collected for a variety of purposes ranging from simple descriptions of the occurrence of arsenic in local or regional ground-water resources to detailed studies on arsenic geochemistry associated with contamination sites. A total of 18,864 sample locations were selected from the USGS NWIS data base regardless of well type, of which 2,262 were taken from public water-supply sources. Samples with non-potable water (dissolved-solids concentration greater than 2,000 milligrams per liter and water temperature greater than 50o Celsius) were not selected for the retrospective analysis and other criteria for selection included the amount and type of ancillary data available for each sample. The 1,528 counties with sufficient data included 76 percent of all large public water-supply systems (serving more than 10,000 people) and 61 percent of all small public water-supply systems (serving more than 1,000 and less than 10,000 people) in the United States. The arsenic data were summarized for the selected counties by associating the arsenic concentrations measured in the ground-water resource with the numbers and sizes of public water-supply systems using ground water in those counties. Targeted arsenic concentrations of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, and 50 ug/L were exceeded in the ground-water resource associated with 36, 25, 14, 8, 3, and 1 percent respectively of all public water-supply systems accounted for in the analysis.Contributions to uncertainty such as changes in sampling methods and changes in laboratory reporting appear to be less important to the national occurrence estimates than other factors such as temporal variability in arsenic concentrations at a given well, the types of wells sampled, and density and types of sampling locations. In addition, no attempt was made to quantify arsenic concentrations in relation to depth within aquifers. With these qualifications, the USGS data represent the ground-water resource in general and are not restricted to wells currently used for public drinking-water sources. In this way, the broad spatial extent, large number of water samples, and low detection limits used for the USGS data provide a unique source of information to determine where targeted concentrations of arsenic are likely to occur in the ground-water resources within much of the United States.These results indicate USGS data can be effectively used to augment national estimates of arsenic occurrence in the nation's ground-water resources if limitations are recognized. Existing estimates of the occurrence of arsenic in ground water that are used as a source of drinking water can be supplemented with the USGS arsenic concentration data when associated with the public water-supply data base. One such supplementary application is the additional insight gained by establishing relations between arsenic concentration data in the ground-water resource and small public wat

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater River basins, central Idaho

A water-quality standard for temperature is critical for the protection of threatened and endangered salmonids, which need cold, clean water to sustain life. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality has established temperature standards to protect salmonids, yet little is known about the normal range of temperatures of most Idaho streams. A single temperature standard for all streams does not take into account the natural temperature variation of streams or the existence of naturally warm waters. To address these issues and to help the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality revise the existing State temperature standards for aquatic life, temperature data from more than 200 streams and rivers in the salmon and Clearwater River Basins were collected. From these data, a statistical model was developed for estimating stream temperatures on the basis of subbasin and site characteristics and climatic factors. Stream temperatures were monitored hourly for approximately 58 days during July, August, and September 2000 at relatively undisturbed sites in subbasins in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins in central Idaho. The monitored subbasins vary widely in size, elevation, drainage area, vegetation cover, and other characteristics. The resulting data were analyzed for statistical correlations with subbasin and site characteristics to establish the most important factors affecting stream temperature. Maximum daily average stream temperatures were strongly correlated with elevation and total upstream drainage area; weaker correlations were noted with stream depth and width and aver-age subbasin slope. Stream temperatures also were correlated with certain types of vegetation cover, but these variables were not significant in the final model. The model takes into account seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average subbasin slope, and the deviation of daily average air temperature from a 30-year normal daily average air temperature. The goodness-of-fit of the model varies with day of the year. Overall, temperatures can be estimated with 95-percent confidence to within approximately plus or minus 4 degrees Celsius. The model performed well when tested on independent stream-temperature data previously collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies. Although the model provides insight into the natural temperature potential of a wide variety of streams and rivers in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, it has limitations. It is based on data collected in only one summer, during which temperatures were higher and streamflows were lower than normal. The effects of changes in streamflow on the effectiveness of the model are not known. Because the model is based on data from minimally disturbed or undisturbed streams, it should not be applied to streams known to be significantly affected by human activities such as disturbance of the streambed, diversion and return of water by irrigation ditches, and removal of riparian vegetation. Finally, because the model is based on data from streams in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins and reflects climatological and landscape characteristics of those basins, it should not be applied to streams outside this region.

Idaho↗

Sentinel imagery detects the presence of live trees following large wildfires in California

Identifying live tree presence following wildfire is important for burn damage assessments and decision making, as these trees serve as seed sources for recovery. Satellite-based remote sensing offers an efficient means to assess burn severity with products representing vegetation greenness and char/ash presence and their change from pre- to post-fire imagery. While effective at assessing burn severity (e.g. ecosystem change), there remain limitations in identifying fire refugia (surviving trees), due to the difficulty of teasing apart different green vegetation types (e.g. trees, shrubs, grasses). In this paper, we use 10 m Sentinel-2 satellite data to predict live tree presence across three sites impacted by the 2021 California fire season. We used vegetation indices (VIs) from post-fire imagery (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], normalized burn ratio [NBR], normalized difference water index [NDWI], visible atmospherically resistant index [VARI], and burn area index [BAI]), differential VIs from pre- and post-fire imagery (dNDVI, dNBR, RdNBR, dNDWI, dVARI), and direct reflectance bands (all bands model; visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared; B1–B12) to predict live tree presence via random forest modeling. To calibrate and validate the random forest models, we photointerpreted ∼2300 pixels per fire region using 2022 National Agriculture Imagery Program imagery. We performed additional field-based validation using tree presence/absence data two years post-fire ( n = 296 observations across two sites). At the site level, the all bands model outperformed the vegetation index-based models (80%–85% vs 65%–79% accuracy). Errors were mainly false positives attributed to pixels with green understory vegetation but no live trees. In cross-site inference, which involved pooling two sites for model calibration to test on the third site, the all bands model retained good performance (76%–81% accuracy). Evaluation against field survey data demonstrated a larger range of performance (50%–87% accuracy) that highlights limitations based on tree isolation and crown percent greenness. Relative to differential-based VIs, our results highlight potential advantages of using post-fire Sentinel-2 imagery and random forest modeling for identifying live tree presence and scaling to full fire extents.

California↗

Water-quality data-collection activities in Colorado and Ohio; Phase II, Evaluation of 1984 field and laboratory quality-assurance practices

Serious questions have been raised by Congress about the usefulness of water-quality data for addressing issues of regional and national scope and, especially, for characterizing the current quality of the Nation's streams and ground water. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey has undertaken a pilot study in Colorado and Ohio to (1) determine the characteristics of current (1984) water-quality data-collection activities of Federal, regional, State, and local agencies, and academic institutions; and (2) determine how well the data from these activities, collected for various purposes and using different procedures, can be used to improve our ability to answer major broad-scope questions, such as: A. What are (or were) natural or near-natural water-quality conditions? B. What are existing water-quality conditions? C. How has water quality changed, and how do the changes relate to human activities? Colorado and Ohio were chosen for the pilot study largely because they represent regions with different types of waterquality concerns and programs. The study has been divided into three phases, the objectives of which are: Phase I--Inventory water-quality data-collection programs, including costs, and identify those programs that met a set of broad criteria for producing data that are potentially appropriate for water-quality assessments of regional and national scope. Phase II--Evaluate the quality assurance of field and laboratory procedures used in producing the data from programs that met the broad criteria of Phase I. Phase III--Compile the qualifying data and evaluate the adequacy of this data base for addressing selected water-quality questions of regional and national scope. Water-quality data are collected by a large number of organizations for diverse purposes ranging from meeting statutory requirements to research on water chemistry. Combining these individual data bases is an appealing and potentially cost-effective way to attempt to develop a data base adequate for regional or national water-quality assessments. However, to combine data from diverse sources, field and laboratory procedures used to produce the data need to be equivalent and need to meet specific qualityassurance standards. It is these factors that are the focus of Phase II, which is described in this report. In the first phase of this study, an inventory was made of all public organizations and academic institutions that undertook water-quality data-collection activities in Colorado and Ohio in 1984. Water-quality programs identified in Phase I were tested against a set of broad screening criteria. A total of 44 waterquality programs in Colorado and 29 programs in Ohio passed the Phase-I screen and were examined in Phase II. These programs accounted for an estimated 165,000 analyses in Colorado and 76,300 analyses in Ohio for 20 selected constituents and properties. Although qualifying programs included both surface- and ground-water sampling, they emphasized surface waters and produced few groundwater analyses (3,660 for Colorado and 470 for Ohio). For Phase II, information about field and laboratory qualityassurance practices was provided by each organization and its supporting laboratories through questionnaires. This information was evaluated against a set of specific criteria for field and laboratory practices. The criteria were developed from guidelines published by public agencies and professional organizations such as the American Public Health Association, the U.Sc, Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Each of the eight criteria that comprise the Phase-II screen fall into one of two major categories--field practices or laboratory practices.

Colorado, Ohio↗

Elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark National Historical Park: 2008-2012 synthesis report

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources associated with the winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition. Elk were critically important to the Lewis and Clark expedition in providing food and hides that sustained the expedition during the winter of 1805-06 and supplied them for their return east during 1806. Today, elk remain a key component of interpreting the Lewis and Clark story to over 200,000 park visitors each year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. In 2008, the US Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with Lewis and Clark NHP and the NPS North Coast and Cascades Network to develop a protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of elk use within and adjacent to Lewis and Clark NHP (Griffin et al. 2011). Specific objectives of the monitoring program were to measure trends in (1) relative use of the Fort Clatsop unit by elk during winter; (2) the proportion of areas where elk sign is present in the Fort Clatsop unit in winter; and (3) the frequency of elk sightings from roads in and around the Fort Clatsop unit. This report synthesizes the results of the first four years of monitoring elk distribution and use in Lewis and Clark NHP from 2008-2012. We also present data from FY2012 (Appendix 1), in lieu of an annual report for that year. We used fecal pellet group surveys as the cornerstone for monitoring trends in both relative use of the Fort Clatsop Unit by elk and the proportion of areas where elk sign was present at the end of winter. We estimated pellet group density based on data collected from a network of fecal pellet plots distributed systematically throughout the unit. We developed a double observer sampling scheme that enabled us to estimate detection biases and improve the accuracy of pellet group density estimates. We computed the estimated detection probability for any pellet group observed; this probability was a function of the pellet group size and stage of decay, as well as lighting and vegetation conditions, and the number of observers (one or two) searching for pellets in that subplot. We then used these estimated detection probabilities to adjust the raw counts of the detected pellet groups to account for groups that likely went undetected under similar pellet and environmental conditions (each observed pellet group was weighted by the inverse of its estimated detection probability). We also used results from the late winter fecal pellet surveys to quantify the proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO), which was based on the presence of fecal pellet groups and estimation of detection biases (i.e., accounting for pellet groups that likely went undetected by both observers). In this synthesis, we report temporal trends in both pellet group density and PAO from 2008-2012, based on weighted linear regression analyses as well as spatial variation of pellet group densities over time. We completed late winter fecal pellet surveys at 61-66 plots annually, depending on yearly variation in access. We cleared fecal pellets at survey points in late October / early November each year and returned in late February / early March to count pellet groups left by elk over the winter. The estimated probability that a pellet group was detected by any one observer during late winter was affected most by the pellet group size and was less affected by decay class and lighting conditions. Per-observer detection probabilities ranged from as low as ~10-15% for single pellets to ~85-90% for pellet groups with 50 pellets. Average pellet group density in the Fort Clatsop unit ranged annually from 0.58 (+/- 1.43 standard error [SE]) to 0.93 (+/- 2.25 SE) pellet groups per 3-m radius subplot. Pellet group density declined over time, at approximately 8.8% per year (+/- 2.5% SE), but that slope was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.16). Following correction for detection biases, the proportion of surveyed points used by elk (i.e., PAO) ranged from 0.44 (+/- 0.07 SE) to 0.53 (+/- 0.07 SE) during the 4 winters. The estimated proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO) declined at a rate of 2.6% per year (+/- 1.2% per year SE), but that trend also was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.17). Statistical significance of a measure’s trend depends on both the magnitude (i.e., slope) of the observed trend and the number of years the trend continues in the same increasing or decreasing direction. Through simulation modeling we determined how many additional years of surveys would be required to reveal a statistically significant trend, based on the same trends in pellet group density and PAO, and associated variation, observed from 2009-2012. Assuming the same trends persist in the future, simulations indicated that there is a 70% probability that a statistically significant trend would be detected after two more years of conducting pellet group surveys. Relative use by elk during winter, as indexed by elk pellet group density, was generally greatest in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit in or near the large freshwater marsh at the mouth of Colewort Creek and adjacent upland areas. Pellet group density was also higher than average in the north-central forested area, not far from a privately-owned pasture north of the park boundary. This spatial pattern in pellet group densities across the Fort Clatsop unit was consistent across all four years, although specific pellet group densities varied from year to year. Pellet group density declined significantly over time at two points in the southeast of the Fort Clatsop unit, even though pellet group density at those points remained higher than the unit average. Pellet group density increased significantly over time at one point in the north-central region, and at one point in the south-central region of the unit, indicating a slight shift in the distribution of elk use within the Fort Clatsop Unit over the four years. As an index of visitors’ opportunities to see elk in and around the Fort Clatsop Unit, we conducted replicated roadside elk surveys 3-5 times monthly during February, April, June, August, October and December 2008-2012. During each morning of survey, we searched for elk along four routes that totaled 32 km. We examined bimonthly trends in the numbers of elk groups seen, the total number of elk seen, and the observed composition ratios for those six months of the year. The average number of elk groups seen per survey ranged from 0.75 (+/- 0.32 SE) during February to a peak of 1.95 (+/- 0.36 SE) during June. Despite this seasonal variation in numbers of elk groups seen, the average total number of elk seen per morning was less variable. The average ratios of antlered elk to antlerless adult elk (i.e., bulls:cows) and calves to antlerless adult elk (i.e. calves:cows) varied seasonally, with the highest of both average ratios observed in August. We detected no significant trends in the average number of elk groups and total numbers of elk seen per survey from 2008-2012. Similarly, ratios of calves and antlered elk per antlerless elk did not differ over time. Elk groups were frequently seen from January to August in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit, in the vicinity of Colewort Creek. Outside of NPS lands, we observed elk most frequently in open areas near the Astoria regional airport, in the pastures and forests immediately north of the Fort Clatsop unit and, prior to the construction of a residential development, in a pasture northwest of the Fort Clatsop unit. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP is still in its initial years and additional monitoring will be required to verify trends that appear to be emerging. For example, the initial monitoring suggested incipient declining trends in both pellet group density and proportion of plots with pellets present, as well as, potentially, a small shift in elk distribution away from a new trail that was recently constructed in the southeast portion of the Fort Clatsop unit. Continued monitoring will aid in determining whether this local change in distribution persists (or, alternatively, resulted from short-term random variation), and whether there will be any positive or negative effect in the northern portion of the unit where a new trail has been constructed. High variability in road counts prevented our ability to find any clear trend in numbers or composition of elk observed in and near Fort Clatsop, but changes in the patterns of observations of elk from roadways suggest that residential development outside the park has reduced the available habitat for elk in some of the areas surveyed, and may have affected spatial use patterns of elk adjacent to some areas of the park. In addition to monitoring future effects of land use changes outside the park, continued monitoring may also prove useful for assessing elk responses to natural succession in forests disturbed by windthrow in December 2007 and to NPS vegetation management activities such as variable density thinning in the forest, trail development, and restoration at Otter Point tidal area and Colewort Creek Slough.

Oregon;Washington↗

Shifting sands: The influence of coral reefs on shoreline erosion from short-term storm protection to long-term disequilibrium

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Nature-Based Solutions↗

Metal concentrations in surface sediments of Boston Harbor: Changes with time

The concentrations of metals in surface sediments of Boston Harbor have decreased during the period 1977–1993. This conclusion is supported by analysis of: (1) surface sediments collected at monitoring stations in the outer harbor between 1977 and 1993; (2) metal concentration profiles in sediment cores from depositional areas of the harbor; and (3) historical data from a contaminated-sediment database, which includes information on metal and organic contaminants and sediment texture. The background and matrix-corrected concentrations of lead (Pb) measured in the surficial layer (0–2 cm) of cores decreased by an average of 46%±12% among four locations in the outer harbor during the 16 y period. Chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), silver (Ag), and zinc (Zn) exhibited similar trends. Results from our sediment sampling are supported by historical data that were compiled from diverse sources into a regional sediment database. This sediment database contains approximately 3000 samples; of these, about 460 samples were collected and analyzed for Cu, Hg, or Zn and many other sediment parameters in Boston Harbor surface sediments between 1971–1993. The database indicates that the concentrations of these three metals also decreased with time in Boston’s Inner Harbor. The decreases in metal concentrations that are observed in more recent years parallel a general decrease in the flux of metals to the harbor, implemented by: (1) ending the sewage sludge discharge to the Harbor in December, 1991; (2) greater source reduction (e.g. recovery of silver from photographic processing) and closing or moving of industries; (3) improvements in wastewater handling and sewage treatment; and (4) diminishing use of lead in gasoline beginning about 1973. Despite the general decrease in metal concentrations in Boston Harbor surface sediments, the concentrations of Ag and Hg measured at some outer harbor stations in 1993 were still at, or above, the level associated with frequent adverse effects to marine organisms (guidelines are: Ag 3.7 μ g g −1 , Hg 1.17 μ g g −1 , from Long et al., 1995 ). Concentrations of the other metals listed were in the range considered to occasionally induce adverse biological effects.

Massachusetts↗

Geohydrology and evaluation of water-resource potential of the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Albany area, southwestern Georgia

In the Albany area of southwestern Georgia, the Upper Floridan aquifer lies entirely within the Dougherty Plain district of the Coastal Plain physiographic province, and consists of the Ocala Limestone of late Eocene age. The aquifer is divided throughout most of the study area into an upper and a lower lithologic unit, which creates an upper and a lower water-bearing zone. The lower water-bearing zone consists of alternating layers of sandy limestone and medium-brown, recrystallized dolomitic limestone, and ranges in thickness from about 50 to 100 feet. It is highly fractured, and exhibits well-developed permeability by solution features that are responsible for transmitting most of the ground water in the aquifer. Transmissivity of the lower water-bearing zone ranges from about 90,000 to 178,000 feet squared per day. The upper water-bearing zone is a finely crystallized-to-oolitic, locally dolomitic limestone having an average thickness of about 60 feet. Transmissivities in the upper water-bearing zone are considerably less than those in the lower water-bearing zone. The Upper Floridan aquifer is overlain by about 20 to 120 feet of undifferentiated overburden consisting of fine-to-coarse quartz sand and noncalcareous clay. A clay zone about 10 to 30 feet thick may be continuous throughout the southwestern part of the Albany area, and where present, causes confinement of the Upper Floridan aquifer and creates perched ground water after periods of heavy rainfall. The Upper Floridan aquifer is confined below by the Lisbon Formation, a mostly dolomitic limestone that contains trace amounts of glauconite. The Lisbon Formation is at least 50 feet thick in the study area, and acts as an impermeable base to the Upper Floridan aquifer. The quality of ground-water in the Upper Floridan aquifer is suitable for most uses; wells generally yield water of the hard, calcium-bicarbonate type that generally meets the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Primary or Secondary Drinking Water Regulations. The water-resource potential of the Upper Floridan aquifer was evaluated by compiling results of test drilling and aquifer testing in the study area, and by conducting computer simulations of the ground-water-flow system under the seasonal-low conditions of November 1985, and under conditions of pumping within a 12square-mile area located southwest of Albany. Results of test drilling, aquifer testing, and water-quality analyses indicate that, in the area southwest of Albany, geohydrologic conditions in the Upper Floridan aquifer, undifferentiated overburden, and Lisbon Formation were favorable for the aquifer to provide a large quantity of water without having adverse effects on the ground-water system. The confinement of the Upper Floridan aquifer by the undifferentiated overburden and the rural setting of the area of potential development decreases the likelihood that chemical constituents will enter the aquifer during development of the ground-water resources. Computer simulations of ground-water flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer, incorporating conditions for regional flow across model boundaries, leakage from rivers and other surface-water features, and vertical leakage from the undifferentiated overburden, were conducted by using a finite-element model for groundwater flow in two dimensions. Comparison of computed and measured water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer for November 1985 at 74 locations indicated that computed water levels generally were within 5 feet of the measured values, which is the accuracy to which measured water levels were known. Water-level altitudes ranged from about 260 feet to 130 feet above sea level in the study area during calibration. Aquifer discharge to the Flint River downstream from the Lake Worth dam was computed by the calibrated model to be about 1 billion gallons per day; about 300 million gallons per day greater than was measured for similar low-flow conditions. The excess computed discharge was attributed partially to stream withdrawals for industrial use, non-reported use, and channel evaporation, but mostly to increased gradients and increased flow from the aquifer to the river than existed during calibration. Results from the calibrated finite-element model indicate that ground-water flow is dominated by inflow from regional-flow components to the west, north, and east of the study area, and by outflow to the Flint River downstream from the Lake Worth dam. Simulation results indicated that directions of ground-water flow were not changed appreciably by pumping at the November 1985 rates. However, vertical leakage from the undifferentiated overburden caused local deviations in the regional flow pattern. A sensitivity analysis that was performed on 18 hydrologic factors affecting the flow system in the Upper Floridan aquifer showed that computed water levels changed the most (were the most sensitive) in response to changes in hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, vertical leakage coefficient and water level in the undifferentiated overburden, and stage of the Flint River downstream from the Lake Worth dam. Computed water levels were least sensitive to changes in well pumpage, flow across the northern boundary and from Lake Worth, the boundary coefficient for the Flint River downstream from the Lake Worth dam, and flow from Cooleewahee Creek. Simulations of six pumping scenarios in the area of potential development southwest of Albany showed that the Upper Floridan aquifer is capable of providing at least 72 million gallons per day from five locations (14.4 million gallons per day each) within this area without causing adverse affects on the flow system. The 72million-gallon-per-day scenario yielded a maximum drawdown of about 9.4 feet, which placed the water level in the Upper Floridan aquifer about 50 feet above the top of the lower water-bearing zone. Hence, the likelihood of aquifer dewatering, well interference, or sinkhole development from pumping as much as 72 million gallons per day from within the area of potential development is small. All pumping scenarios showed that about 81 percent of the ground-water pumpage was derived from regional flow that would have discharged to the Flint River downstream from the Lake Worth dam. The dominant ground-water-flow direction toward the Flint River was not changed and no induced recharge from the Flint River entered the potential-development area. Induced recharge from the undifferentiated overburden contributed to about 1.5 percent of the total volume pumped during the simulations.

Georgia↗

Waterfowl communities in the northern plains: Chapter 13

Features that determine the composition of avian communities have received extensive and enthusiastic attention, both empirically and theoretically (e.g., Cody 1974; Strong et al. 1984; Wiens, 1989a,b). Interspecific competition for limited resources is one influence widely regarded as critical, but others include species-specific responses to environmental conditions, predation, parasitism, commensal and mutualistic interactions, disturbance and chance, and historical events (Wiens, 1989b). Despite the attention they have received, the relative importance of the different features remains highly controversial. Certainly the community of birds present in an area will be but a subset of the total population of each constituent species; thus, the total population size of each species is a potential influence on local communities. Since many bird communities in the temperate zone are reconstituted annually with migrants, the geographical location of a site within the breeding range is an important feature; clearly, an avian community outside the normal breeding range of a particular species is unlikely to include that species, irrespective of the suitability of vegetation and other habitat features. Further, suitable habitat encountered earlier in spring migration is more likely to be occupied than is habitat encountered later. And the breeding ranges of birds are known to shift from year to year, depending on climatic conditions, a phenomenon that represents a modification of the general breeding range at a finer scale of resolution. The return of migrant birds to areas from which they fledged or where they previously bred modifies the occupancy of a particular habitat (HildTn 1964); likewise, traditional use of breeding sites by birds can induce species to persist in unsuitable habitat (Wiens 1985). Thus site fidelity can weaken the relationship between habitat quality and number of birds on an area (Wiens 1985). Waterfowl have received less attention from community ecologists than have many other groups of birds despite the importance attributed to waterfowl by biologists more generally, as well as by the public. Exceptions include work by Nudds and colleagues in Canada and by P?ysS and colleagues in Finland (see Nudds 1992 and references contained therein). Further, waterfowl are important ecologically; in much of the prairie of the North American midcontinent, waterfowl are numerically among the most common bird species and are certainly dominant in terms of biomass. This chapter addresses some influences on waterfowl communities in mixed-grass prairie pothole habitat. It takes a temporal perspective, based on annual censuses of breeding ducks for 25 years on a specific study area at Woodworth, North Dakota. Any changes in the structural features of the habitat that may have occurred during this period at the census site were at most gradual. I examine how the waterfowl communities varied in response to influences that did change annually, such as climate, conditions of the wetlands on the study area, the regional populations of birds from which the communities were constituted, and the population at Woodworth during the previous year. The results of the analyses are interpreted relative to individual characteristics of 11 waterfowl species: Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), Gadwall ( Anas strepera ), Green-winged Teal ( Anas crecca ), Blue-winged Teal ( Anas discors ), Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ), Northern Shoveler ( Anas clypeata ), American Wigeon ( Anas americana ), Canvasback ( Aythya valisineria ), Redhead ( Aythya americana ), Lesser Scaup ( Aythya affinis ), and Ruddy Duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ).

Book chapter↗

Aquifers of Arkansas: protection, management, and hydrologic and geochemical characteristics of groundwater resources in Arkansas

Sixteen aquifers in Arkansas that currently serve or have served as sources of water supply are described with respect to existing groundwater protection and management programs, geology, hydrologic characteristics, water use, water levels, deductive analysis, projections of hydrologic conditions, and water quality. State and Federal protection and management programs are described according to regulatory oversight, management strategies, and ambient groundwater-monitoring programs that currently (2013) are in place for assessing and protecting groundwater resources throughout the State. Physical attributes, groundwater geochemistry, and groundwater quality are described for each of the 16 aquifers of the State. Information in regard to the hydrology and geochemistry of each of the aquifers is summarized from about 550 historical and recent publications. Additionally, more than 8,000 sites with groundwater-quality data were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System and the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality databases and entered into a spatial database to investigate distribution and trends in chemical constituents for each of the aquifers. The 16 aquifers of the State were divided into two major physiographic regions of the State: the Coastal Plain Province (referred to as Coastal Plain) of eastern and southern Arkansas, which includes 11 of the 16 aquifers, and the Interior Highlands Division (referred to as Interior Highlands) of western Arkansas, which includes the remaining 5 aquifers. The 11 aquifers in the Coastal Plain consist of various geologic units that are Cenozoic in age and consist primarily of Cretaceous, Tertiary, and Quaternary sands, gravels, silts, and clays. Groundwater in the Coastal Plain represents one of the most valuable natural resources in the State, driving the economic engines of agriculture, while also supplying abundant water for commercial, industrial, and public-supply use. In terms of age from youngest to oldest, the aquifers of the Coastal Plain include Quaternary alluvial aquifers, including the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (the most important aquifer in Arkansas in terms of volume of use and economic benefits), the Jackson Group (a regional confining unit that served for decades as an important source of domestic supply), and the Cockfield, Sparta, Cane River, Carrizo, Wilcox, Nacatoch, Ozan, Tokio, and Trinity aquifers. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer accounts for approximately 94 percent of all groundwater used in the State, and the aquifer is used primarily for irrigation purposes. The Sparta aquifer is the second most important aquifer in terms of use, and the aquifer was used in the past dominantly as a source of public and industrial supply, although increasing irrigation use is occurring because of critically declining water levels in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Other aquifers of the Coastal Plain generally are used as important local sources of domestic, industrial, and public supply, in addition to other minor uses. Water quality generally is good for all aquifers of the Coastal Plain, except for elevated iron concentrations and localized areas of high salinity. The high salinity results from intrusion from underlying formations, evapotranspiration processes in areas of low recharge, and inadequate flushing in downgradient areas of residual salinity from deposition in marine environments. Trends in the spatial distribution of individual chemical constituents are related to position along the flow path for most aquifers of the Coastal Plain. These trends include elevated iron and nitrate concentrations with lower pH values and dissolved solids in groundwater from the outcrop areas, transitioning to lower iron and nitrate (related to changes in redox) and higher pH and dissolved solids (dominantly from the dissolution of carbonate minerals) in groundwater downgradient from outcrop areas. Groundwater generally trended from a calcium- to a sodium-bicarbonate water type with increasing cation exchange along the flow path. The Interior Highlands of western Arkansas has less reported groundwater use than other areas of the State, reflecting a combination of factors. These factors include prevalent and increasing use of surface water, less intensive agricultural uses, lower population and industry densities, lesser potential yield of the resource, and lack of detailed reporting. The overall low yields of aquifers of the Interior Highlands result in domestic supply as the dominant use, with minor industrial, public, and commercial-supply use. Where greater volumes are required for growth of population and industry, surface water is the greatest supplier of water needs in the Interior Highlands. The various aquifers of the Interior Highlands generally occur in shallow, fractured, well-indurated, structurally modified bedrock of this mountainous region of the State, as compared to the relatively flat-lying, unconsolidated sediments of the Coastal Plain. In terms of age from youngest to oldest, the aquifers of the Interior Highlands include: the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer, the Ouachita Mountains aquifer, the Western Interior Plains confining system, the Springfield Plateau aquifer, and the Ozark aquifer. Spatial trends in groundwater geochemistry in the Interior Highlands differ greatly from trends noted for aquifers of the Coastal Plain. In the Coastal Plain, the prevalence of long regional flow paths results in regionally predictable and mappable geochemical changes along the flow paths. In the Interior Highlands, short, topographically controlled flow paths (from hilltops to valleys) within small watersheds represent the predominant groundwater-flow system. As such, dense data coverage from numerous wells would be required to effectively characterize these groundwater basins and define small-scale geochemical changes along any given flow path for aquifers of the Interior Highlands. Changes in geochemistry generally were related to rock type and residence time along individual flow paths. Dominant changes in geochemistry for the Ouachita Mountains aquifer and the Western Interior Plains confining system are attributed to rock/water interaction and changes in redox zonation along the flow path. In these areas, groundwater evolves along flow paths from a calcium- to a sodium-bicarbonate water type with increasing reducing conditions resulting in denitrification, elevated iron and manganese concentrations, and production of methane in the more geochemically evolved and strongest reducing conditions. In the Ozark and Springfield Plateau aquifers, rapid influx of surface-derived contaminants, especially nitrogen, coupled with few to no attenuation processes was attributed to the karst landscape developed on Mississippian- and Ordovician-age carbonate rocks of the Ozark Plateaus. Increasing nitrate concentrations are related to increasing agricultural land use, and areas of mature karst development result in higher nitrate concentrations than areas with less karst features.

Arkasas↗

USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and predictive modeling tools for effective ecosystem adaptive management. As a multidisciplinary organization, the USGS possesses the capability of developing and coordinating an integrated science strategy for estuarine research founded on partnerships and collaborative efforts, multidisciplinary teams of scientists, and integrated field work, data analysis and interpretation, and product development. The primary role of the USGS in Tamps Bay research was defined with our partners based upon this capability to address estuarine issues using an integrated science approach with a regional perspective and within a national context to complement the numerous ongoing scien efforts by state and local agencies that address local issues within Tamp Bay. Six primary components of the USGS Tamp Bay Study address critical gaps within each of the the four estuarine system components and focus on: 1.) Examining how natural and man-made physical changes affect ecosystem health through mapping and modeling. 2.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 3.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 4.) Assessing the natural and man-made changes affecting wetland health and restoration, 5.) Identifying and measuring the impact of urbanization on seafloor habitats, Providing a web-based digital information management system of information for scientists and the public, including a system that supports the work of those officials who must make decisions that affect the state of the bay. The Tampa Bay Study is in its sixth year and will continue through September 2007. This paper presents a non-inclusive summary of key findings associated with the six primary project components listed above. Component 4 (above) is described in detail in the following chapter 13. More information on the Tampa Bay Study is available from our on-line digital information system for the Tampa Bay Study at http://gulfsci.usgs.gov.

Florida↗

Use of a ground-water flow model to delineate contributing areas to the Puchack Well Field, Pennsauken township and vicinity, Camden county, New Jersey

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) Well Head Protection Program, developed in response to the 1986 Federal Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments, requires delineation of Well Head Protection Areas (WHPA's), commonly called contributing areas, for all public and non-community water-supply wells in New Jersey. Typically, WHPA's for public community water-supply wells in New Jersey are delineated using a two-dimensional ground-water flow model incorporating the regional hydraulic gradient; however, NJDEP guidelines allow for the use of a three-dimensional flow model to delineate contributing areas to wells in complex hydrogeologic settings. The Puchack well field in Pennsauken Township, Camden County, N.J., is an area of strong hydraulic connection between the Lower aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system and the Delaware River. Interactions among and within the public-supply well fields in the area are complex. To delineate the contributing area to the Puchack well field, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, developed an 11-layer ground-water flow model of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the Pennsauken Township area to simulate flow in the vicinity of the well field. The model incorporates the interaction between the aquifer system and the Delaware River, and includes boundary flows from an existing regional model of the Camden area. Recharge used in the model ranged from 4.5 to 14 inches per year, and horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from 50 to 250 feet per day. Values of vertical hydraulic conductivity ranging from 0.001 to 0.5 feet per day were assigned to zones created on the basis of variations in hydrogeologic conditions observed in geophysical logs from wells. A steady-state simulation was used to calibrate the model to synoptic water-level data collected in March 1998. Near the Puchack well field, simulated heads generally were within 1 foot of the measured heads in both the Middle and Lower aquifers. Simulated water-level differences across the confining units at most of the nested wells were within ? 0.5 feet of the differences calculated from measured water levels. The existing flow model was modified to meet NJDEP guidelines for delineating contributing areas in complex hydrogeologic settings. These modifications included rediscretizing the model grid to a finer grid and preparing the water-use data set for use in the rediscretized model. The contributing area to the Puchack well field was delineated by means of particle tracking. An uncertainty analysis was conducted in which 36 model-input parameters were both increased and decreased until the resulting change in simulated heads exceeded the model-calibration criterion of ? 5 feet at any model cell. Porosity most affected the size and shape of the contributing area. The distribution of withdrawals at the Morris/Delair well field and variations in recharge affected both the size and shape of contributing area to the Puchack well field and the source of water to the Puchack wells. The results of the uncertainty analysis were combined to determine the 'aggregate' contributing area to the Puchack well field--a composite of areas on the land surface that contributed flow to the Puchack well field in less than 12 years in any uncertainty simulation. The shape of the aggregate contributing area was most similar to that associated with a reduction in porosity, which indirectly affected the size and shape of the contributing areas by changing travel time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection, microclimate, and nest survival in association with vegetation response to a grassland restoration program

Climate models predict that the region of the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GPLCC) will experience increased maximum and minimum temperatures, reduced frequency but greater intensity of precipitation events, and earlier springs. These climate changes along with different landscape management techniques may influence the persistence of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act and a priority species under the GPLCC, in positive or negative ways. The objectives of this study were to conduct (1) a literature review of lesser prairie-chicken nesting phenology and ecology, (2) an analysis of thermal aspects of lesser prairie-chicken nest microclimate data, and (3) an analysis of nest site selection, nest survival, and vegetation response to 10 years of tebuthiuron and/or grazing treatments. We found few reports in the literature containing useful data on the nesting phenology of lesser prairie-chickens; therefore, managers must rely on short-term observations and measurements of parameters that provide some predictive insight into climate impacts on nesting ecology. Our field studies showed that prairie-chickens on nests were able to maintain relatively consistent average nest temperature of 31 °C and nest humidities of 56.8 percent whereas average external temperatures (20.3–35.0 °C) and humidities (35.2–74.9 percent) varied widely throughout the 24 hour (hr) cycle. Grazing and herbicide treatments within our experimental areas were designed to be less intensive than in common practice. We determined nest locations by radio-tagging hen lesser prairie-chickens captured at leks, which are display grounds at which male lesser prairie-chickens aggregate and attempt to attract a female for mating. Because nest locations selected by hen lesser prairie-chicken are strongly associated with the lek at which they were captured, we assessed nesting habitat use on the basis of hens captured at individual leks, and then for all leks pooled. There was no clear pattern of selection for treatment type for nest placement among hens associated with individual leks; however, when hens from all leks were pooled, we found nesting lesser prairie-chickens selected control plots for nesting over plots that were grazed, treated with tebuthiuron, or were both grazed and treated with tebuthiuron. Overall, the probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.57 for this study and did not vary significantly among treatment types. In contrast to nesting preference for untreated habitats, lek use exhibited no noticeable selection of treatment type. Over the 10 years of the habitat management study, there was 91 percent less sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) in treated areas than untreated areas. The removal of sand shinnery oak made environmental soil moisture more available for grasses and forbs to germinate and grow. Grasses increased by 149 percent and forbs increased by 257 percent in treated areas as compared to untreated areas throughout the study period. Our combined results, including our habitat selection analysis at the individual lek level, indicated that reduced rates of herbicide and short-duration grazing treatments were not detrimental to nesting lesser prairie-chickens and that populations of lesser prairie-chickens in shrub-dominated ecosystems may benefit from reduced rates of herbicide application and short duration of grazing that results in increased habitat heterogeneity.

New Mexico;Texas↗

Vascular plant and vertebrate species richness in national parks of the eastern United States

Given the estimates that species diversity is diminishing at 50-100 times the normal rate, it is critical that we be able to evaluate changes in species richness in order to make informed decisions for conserving species diversity. In this study, we examined the potential of vascular plant species richness to be used as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness in the classes of amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Vascular plants, as primary producers, represent the biotic starting point for ecological community structure and are the logical place to start for understanding vertebrate species associations. We used data collected by the United States (US) National Park Service (NPS) on species presence within parks in the eastern US to estimate simple linear regressions between plant species richness and vertebrate richness. Because environmental factors may also influence species diversity, we performed simple linear regressions of species richness versus natural logarithm of park area, park latitude, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and human population density surrounding the parks. We then combined plant species richness and environmental variables in multiple regressions to determine the variables that remained as significant predictors of vertebrate species richness. As expected, we detected significant relationships between plant species richness and amphibian, bird, and mammal species richness. In some cases, plant species richness was predicted by park area alone. Species richness of mammals was only related to plant species richness. Reptile species richness, on the other hand, was related to plant species richness, park latitude and annual precipitation, while amphibian species richness was related to park latitude, park area, and plant species richness. Thus, plant species richness predicted species richness of different vertebrate groups to varying degrees and should not be used exclusively as a surrogate for vertebrate species richness. Plant species richness should be included with other variables such as area and climate when considering strategies to manage and conserve species in US National Parks. It is not always appropriate to draw conclusions about analyses of taxonomic surrogates from one area to another. Two patterns evident from the linear regressions were the increase in species richness with the increase of park area and with increase of vascular plant species richness. To test whether there were differences in these patterns among networks, we used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Differences among networks were detected only in bird species richness versus plant species richness and for all taxa except mammals for vertebrate species richness versus park area. Some of these results may be due to small sample size among networks, and therefore, low statistical power. Other factors that could have contributed to these results were differences in average park area and habitat heterogeneity among networks, latitudinal gradients, low variation in mean annual precipitation, and different use of vegetation by migratory species. Based on these results we recommend that management of biodiversity be approached from local and site specific criteria rather than applying management directives derived from other regions of the US. It is also recommended that analyses similar to those presented here be conducted for all national parks, once data become available for all networks in the US, to gain a better understanding of how vascular plant species richness, area, and vertebrate species richness are related in the US.

Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/NCR/NCRO/NRT↗