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Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)

The NE CASC boasts an interdisciplinary array of scientists, from ecologists to biologists, hydrologists to climatologists, each contributing new, original academic research to advance our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildlife and other natural resources in the Northeast. Needed was an outreach specialist who would interface directly with the management agencies who benefited from this research to aid the integration of this research into their management planning as part of adapting to climate change. A climatologist was preferred to address queries about climate modeling, climate change uncertainties, and other areas of climate science outside the expertise of NE CASC ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists. This person’s activities would include responding to inquiries, presenting climate science concepts at management workshops, gathering managers’ climate science needs, contributing to the climate portion of synthesis reports and other resources for managers, and collaborating with ecologists on interdisciplinary studies of climate change by providing climate data and guidance on interpretation. The objective was to relay and interpret the scientific findings most relevant to managers’ resources of concern and management activities around those resources to guide adjustments to their activities toward better protecting their resources of concern. As an outcome, managers often relied on synthesized climate science to be able to consider how climate trends affect their work, especially those thinking about climate change for the first time in the context of their work. This lays the groundwork for more detailed management-driven science delivery that can aid eventual implementation. Management groups reached by this project include land managers with the National Park Service, state fish and game departments and DNRs, and tribal environmental coordinators.

Report↗

Guidelines for preparation of State water-use estimates for 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. This report describes the water-use categories and data elements used for the national water-use compilation conducted as part of the USGS National Water-Use Science Project. The report identifies sources of water-use information, provides standard methods and techniques for estimating water use at the county level, and outlines steps for preparing documentation for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale, estimates of water withdrawals for the categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power are prepared for each county in each State, District, or territory by using the guidelines in this report. County estimates of water withdrawals for aquaculture, livestock, and mining are prepared for each State by using a county-based national model, although water-use programs in each State or Water Science Center have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals for these categories. Estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for thermoelectric power will be aggregated to the county level for each State by the national project; additionally, irrigation consumptive use at the county level will also be provided, although study chiefs in each State have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for these categories. Estimates of deliveries of water from public supplies for domestic use by county also will be prepared for each State. As a result, total domestic water use can be determined for each State by combining self-supplied domestic withdrawals and public-supplied domestic deliveries. Fresh groundwater and surface-water estimates will be prepared for all categories of use, and saline groundwater and surface-water estimates by county will be prepared for the categories of public supply, industrial, mining, and thermoelectric power. Power production for thermoelectric power and irrigated acres by irrigation system type will be compiled. If data are available, reclaimed-wastewater use will be compiled for the public-supply, industrial, mining, thermoelectric-power, and irrigation categories. Optional water-use categories are commercial, hydroelectric power, and wastewater treatment. Optional data elements are public-supply deliveries to commercial, industrial, and thermoelectric-power users; consumptive use (for categories other than thermoelectric power and irrigation); irrigation conveyance loss; and number of facilities. Aggregation of water-use data by stream basin (eight-digit hydrologic unit code) and principal aquifers also is optional. Water-use data compiled by the States will be stored in the USGS Aggregate Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). This database is a comprehensive aggregated database designed to store mandatory and optional data elements. AWUDS contains several routines that can be used for quality assurance and quality control of the data, and AWUDS produces tables of water-use data from the previous compilations.

Open-File Report↗

Hydrologic compartmentalization and analytic-element groundwater-flow simulations for a draining mine tunnel

Draining mine tunnels contribute contaminants to groundwater and surface water, but remediation strategies may be hindered as hydrogeologic characterization and modeling of these heterogeneous features generally relies on sparse data sets. The Captain Jack mine site in Colorado, USA, presents a unique data set allowing for temporal evaluation of groundwater connectivity in the vicinity of an abandoned mine, where a hydraulic bulkhead is impounding water within the mine workings. This study applied statistical analysis of system pressure responses to bulkheading and used an analytic-element modeling approach to characterize heterogeneity and groundwater flow. Groundwater-level elevation data collected over a period of 4 years, both prior to and after bulkheading, indicate that the mine workings act as a sink to the local groundwater system. Despite groundwater flow being generally oriented towards the mine workings, there are also large vertical and horizontal hydraulic gradients which persist through time. Although the groundwater system is highly compartmentalized, statistical analysis using Kendall’s Tau indicates correlations between hydraulic head changes in the mine workings and several wells completed in crystalline bedrock, indicating the influence of fracture flow. An analytic-element model was parameterized to account for uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity, recharge, and discharge. Model results reproduced the range of observed hydraulic heads in the mine workings and adjacent igneous dikes but failed to closely simulate hydraulic heads in several wells located distal from the mine workings in granitic bedrock. The modeling approach shows potential promise, however, for conducting preliminary modeling to guide data collection at other similar mine sites.

Colorado↗

Block versus continuum deformation in the Western United States

The relative role of block versus continuum deformation of continental lithosphere is a current subject of debate. Continuous deformation is suggested by distributed seismicity at continental plate margins and by cumulative seismic moment sums which yield slip estimates that are less than estimates from plate motion studies. In contrast, block models are favored by geologic studies of displacement in places like Asia. A problem in this debate is a lack of data from which unequivocal conclusions may be reached. In this paper we apply the techniques of study used in regions such as the Alpine-Himalayan belt to an area with a wealth of instrumental data-the Western United States. By comparing plate rates to seismic moment release rates and assuming a typical seismogenic layer thickness of 15 km it appears that since 1850 about 60% of the Pacific-North America motion across the plate boundary in California and Nevada has occurred seismically and 40% aseismically. The San Francisco Bay area shows similar partitioning between seismic and aseismic deformation, and it can be shown that within the seismogenic depth range aseismic deformation is concentrated near the surface and at depth. In some cases this deformation can be located on creeping surface faults, but elsewhere it is spread over a several kilometer wide zone adjacent to the fault. These superficial creeping deformation zones may be responsible for the palaeomagnetic rotations that have been ascribed elsewhere to the surface expression of continuum deformation in the lithosphere. Our results support the dominant role of non-continuum deformation processes with the implication that deformation localization by strain softening must occur in the lower crust and probably the upper mantle. Our conclusions apply only to the regions where the data are good, and even within the Western United States (i.e., the Basin and Range) deformation styles remain poorly resolved. Nonetheless, we maintain that block motion is the deformation style of choice for those continental regions where the data are best.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

A review of single-sample-based models and other approaches for radiocarbon dating of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater

Numerous methods have been proposed to estimate the pre-nuclear-detonation 14 C content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) recharged to groundwater that has been corrected/adjusted for geochemical processes in the absence of radioactive decay ( 14 C 0 ) - a quantity that is essential for estimation of radiocarbon age of DIC in groundwater. The models/approaches most commonly used are grouped as follows: (1) single-sample-based models, (2) a statistical approach based on the observed (curved) relationship between 14 C and δ 13 C data for the aquifer, and (3) the geochemical mass-balance approach that constructs adjustment models accounting for all the geochemical reactions known to occur along a groundwater flow path. This review discusses first the geochemical processes behind each of the single-sample-based models, followed by discussions of the statistical approach and the geochemical mass-balance approach. Finally, the applications, advantages and limitations of the three groups of models/approaches are discussed. The single-sample-based models constitute the prevailing use of 14 C data in hydrogeology and hydrological studies. This is in part because the models are applied to an individual water sample to estimate the 14 C age, therefore the measurement data are easily available. These models have been shown to provide realistic radiocarbon ages in many studies. However, they usually are limited to simple carbonate aquifers and selection of model may have significant effects on 14 C 0 often resulting in a wide range of estimates of 14 C ages. Of the single-sample-based models, four are recommended for the estimation of 14 C 0 of DIC in groundwater: Pearson's model, (Ingerson and Pearson, 1964; Pearson and White, 1967), Han & Plummer's model (Han and Plummer, 2013), the IAEA model (Gonfiantini, 1972; Salem et al., 1980), and Oeschger's model (Geyh, 2000). These four models include all processes considered in single-sample-based models, and can be used in different ranges of 13 C values. In contrast to the single-sample-based models, the extended Gonfiantini & Zuppi model (Gonfiantini and Zuppi, 2003; Han et al., 2014) is a statistical approach. This approach can be used to estimate 14 C ages when a curved relationship between the 14 C and 13 C values of the DIC data is observed. In addition to estimation of groundwater ages, the relationship between 14 C and δ 13 C data can be used to interpret hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, e.g. estimating apparent rates of geochemical reactions and revealing the complexity of the geochemical environment, and identify samples that are not affected by the same set of reactions/processes as the rest of the dataset. The investigated water samples may have a wide range of ages, and for waters with very low values of 14 C, the model based on statistics may give more reliable age estimates than those obtained from single-sample-based models. In the extended Gonfiantini & Zuppi model, a representative system-wide value of the initial 14 C content is derived from the 14 C and δ 13 C data of DIC and can differ from that used in single-sample-based models. Therefore, the extended Gonfiantini & Zuppi model usually avoids the effect of modern water components which might retain ‘bomb’ pulse signatures. The geochemical mass-balance approach constructs an adjustment model that accounts for all the geochemical reactions known to occur along an aquifer flow path (Plummer et al., 1983; Wigley et al., 1978; Plummer et al., 1994; Plummer and Glynn, 2013), and includes, in addition to DIC, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and methane (CH 4 ). If sufficient chemical, mineralogical and isotopic data are available, the geochemical mass-balance method can yield the most accurate estimates of the adjusted radiocarbon age. The main limitation of this approach is that complete information is necessary on chemical, mineralogical and isotopic data and these data are often limited. Failure to recognize the limitations and underlying assumptions on which the various models and approaches are based can result in a wide range of estimates of 14 C 0 and limit the usefulness of radiocarbon as a dating tool for groundwater. In each of the three generalized approaches (single-sample-based models, statistical approach, and geochemical mass-balance approach), successful application depends on scrutiny of the isotopic ( 14 C and 13 C) and chemical data to conceptualize the reactions and processes that affect the 14 C content of DIC in aquifers. The recently developed graphical analysis method is shown to aid in determining which approach is most appropriate for the isotopic and chemical data from a groundwater system.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Linking middle-school teachers to Earthscope

EarthScope is a multidisciplinary geophysical investigation of the structure and deformation of the North American continent. Components include a transportable array of digital seismometers (USArray) that will image the continental crust and underlying mantle, and Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and strainmeters (Plate Boundary Observatory, PBO) that will measure tectonic and volcanic deformations Translating geophysics for kindergarten through 12th grade (K‐12) teachers and their students involves inviting them to explore new understandings of how Earth works. When they construct their understanding of Earth science through geophysical problem solving, these learners can engage in Earth‐Scope, which offers unprecedented public access to data from seismology and geodesy.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Trends in plant cover derived from vegetation plot data using ordinal zero-augmented beta regression

Questions Plant cover values in vegetation plot data are bounded between 0 and 1, and cover is typically recorded in discrete classes with non-equal intervals. Consequently, cover data are skewed and heteroskedastic, which hampers the application of conventional regression methods. Recently developed ordinal beta regression models consider these statistical difficulties. Our primary question is whether we can detect species trends in vegetation plot time series data with this modelling approach. A second question is whether trends in cover have additional value compared to trends in occurrence, which are easier to assess for practitioners. Location The Netherlands, Western Europe. Methods We used vegetation plot data collected from 10,000 fixed plots which were surveyed once every four years during 1999–2022. We used the ordinal zero-augmented beta regression (OZAB) model, a hierarchical model consisting of a logistic regression for presence and an ordinal beta regression for cover. We adapted the OZAB model for longitudinal data and produced estimates of cover and occurrence for each four-year period. Thereafter we assessed trends in cover and in occurrence across all periods. Results We found evidence of a trend in cover in 318 out of the 721 species (44%) with sufficient data. Most species showed similar directional trends in occurrence and percent cover. No trend in occurrence was detected for 64 species that had evidence of a trend in cover. Declining species had stronger relative changes in cover than in occurrence. Conclusions Our model enables researchers to detect trends in cover using longitudinal vegetation plot data. Cover trends often corroborated trends in occurrence, but we also regularly found trends in cover even in the absence of evidence for trends in occurrence. Our approach thus contributes to a more complete picture of (changes in) vegetation composition based on large monitoring data sets.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

Landsat-8: Status and on-orbit performance

Landsat 8 and its two Earth imaging sensors, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) have been operating on-orbit for 2 ½ years. Landsat 8 has been acquiring substantially more images than initially planned, typically around 700 scenes per day versus a 400 scenes per day requirement, acquiring nearly all land scenes. Both the TIRS and OLI instruments are exceeding their SNR requirements by at least a factor of 2 and are very stable, degrading by at most 1% in responsivity over the mission to date. Both instruments have 100% operable detectors covering their cross track field of view using the redundant detectors as necessary. The geometric performance is excellent, meeting or exceeding all performance requirements. One anomaly occurred with the TIRS Scene Select Mirror (SSM) encoder that affected its operation, though by switching to the side B electronics, this was fully recovered. The one challenge is with the TIRS stray light, which affects the flat fielding and absolute calibration of the TIRS data. The error introduced is smaller in TIRS band 10. Band 11 should not currently be used in science applications.

Conference Paper↗

Cubic map algebra functions for spatio-temporal analysis

We propose an extension of map algebra to three dimensions for spatio-temporal data handling. This approach yields a new class of map algebra functions that we call "cube functions." Whereas conventional map algebra functions operate on data layers representing two-dimensional space, cube functions operate on data cubes representing two-dimensional space over a third-dimensional period of time. We describe the prototype implementation of a spatio-temporal data structure and selected cube function versions of conventional local, focal, and zonal map algebra functions. The utility of cube functions is demonstrated through a case study analyzing the spatio-temporal variability of remotely sensed, southeastern U.S. vegetation character over various land covers and during different El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Like conventional map algebra, the application of cube functions may demand significant data preprocessing when integrating diverse data sets, and are subject to limitations related to data storage and algorithm performance. Solutions to these issues include extending data compression and computing strategies for calculations on very large data volumes to spatio-temporal data handling.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗

Freedom of Information Act

The Freedom of Information Act( FOIA), 5 U.S.C.§ 552, as amended, generally provides that any person has a right to request access to Federal agency records. The USGS proactively promotes information disclosure as inherent to its mission of providing objective science to inform decisionmakers and the general public. USGS scientists disseminate up-to-date and historical scientific data that are critical to addressing national and global priorities.

General Information Product↗

Declassified intelligence satellite photographs

Recently declassified photographs from spy satellites are an important addition to the record of the Earth?s land surface held by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). More than 800,000 high-resolution photos taken between 1959 through 1972 were made available by Executive Order of the President. The collection is held at the USGS EROS Data Center, near Sioux Falls, S. Dak., and are offered for public sale. For some purposes in earth science studies, these photos extend the record of changes in the land surface another decade back in time from the advent of the Landsat earth-observing satellite program.

Fact Sheet↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program

The fundamental goals of the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Remote Sens-ing (LRS) Program are to provide the Federal Government and the public with a primary source of remotely sensed data and applications and to be a leader in defining the future of land remote sensing, nationally and internationally. Remotely sensed data provide information that enhance the understand-ing of ecosystems and the capabilities for predicting ecosystem change. The data promote an understanding of the role of the environment and wildlife in human health issues, the requirements for disaster response, the effects of climate variability, and the availability of energy and mineral resources. Also, as land satellite systems acquire global coverage, the program coordinates a network of international receiving stations and users of the data. It is the responsibility of the program to assure that data from land imaging satellites, airborne photography, radar, and other technologies are available to the national and global science communities.

Fact Sheet↗

South Dakota and Landsat

Few States derive as much of their social and economic well-being from the land as South Dakota. Agriculture is the State’s primary industry. Hunting, fishing, tourism, mining, and hydroelectric power are also important economic and cultural drivers. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey Landsat program, archived at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center just outside Sioux Falls, South Dakota, has long been a boon to the monitoring, mapping, and management of the State’s land resources.

South Dakota↗

Freedom of Information Act-Employee responsibilities

The Freedom of Information Act( FOIA), 5 U.S.C. § 552, as amended, generally provides that any person has a right to request access to Federal agency records. The USGS proactively promotes information disclosure as inherent to its mission of providing objective science to inform decisionmakers and the general public. USGS scientists disseminate up-to-date and historical scientific data that are critical to addressing national and global priorities.

General Information Product↗

Extracting shorelines from NASA airborne topographic lidar-derived digital elevation models

This report documents part of the National Park Service (NPS)/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aerial Data Collection and Creation of Products for Park Vital Signs Project. This report is one in a series that describes methods for extracting topographic features from aerial survey data as part of a joint project among the NPS Inventory and Monitoring (IM) Program, the NASA Observational Sciences Branch, and the USGS Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies (CCWS).

Open-File Report↗

Surface-water quality-assurance plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center

This Surface-Water Quality-Assurance Plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center (WAWSC) for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of surface-water data. This plan serves as a guide to all WAWSC personnel involved in surface-water data activities, and changes as the needs and requirements of the WAWSC change. Regular updates to this plan represent an integral part of the quality-assurance process. In the WAWSC, direct oversight and responsibility by the hydrographer(s) assigned to a surface-water station, combined with team approaches in all work efforts, assure highquality data, analyses, reviews, and reports for cooperating agencies and the public.

Washington↗

Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey

This report provides an overview of model-based climate science in a risk management context. In addition, it summarizes how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will continue to follow best scientific practices and when and how the results of this research will be delivered to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other stakeholders to inform policymaking. Climate change is a risk management challenge for society because of the uncertain consequences for natural and human systems across decades to centuries. Climate-related science activities within the USGS emphasize research on adaptation to climate change. This research helps inform adaptive management processes and planning activities within other DOI bureaus and by DOI stakeholders. Global climate models are sophisticated numerical representations of the Earth’s climate system. Research groups from around the world regularly participate in a coordinated effort to produce a suite of climate models. This global effort provides a test bed to assess model performance and analyze projections of future change under various prescribed climate scenarios. These climate scenarios describe a plausible future outcome associated with a specific set of societal actions. Because scenarios are developed in a risk-based framework with a high degree of uncertainty about future societal developments, they are usually not assigned a formal likelihood of occurrence. Examining a range of projected climate outcomes based on multiple scenarios is a recommended best practice because it allows decision makers to better consider both short- and long-term risks and opportunities. As part of its routine science practices, the USGS regularly reviews the state of knowledge of climate science, develops and maintains best practices in using global climate models to project climate change impacts, and provides data and interpretations of potential impacts to the DOI and other stakeholders. Management and policy decisions within the DOI will reflect different tolerances for risk, which has implications for what type of information should be considered and how that information should be used. It is suggested that a followup document be produced that would describe in more detail how these management decisions with differing risk tolerances can be made effectively and consistently in light of an uncertain future.

Open-File Report↗